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This is a publication-based dissertation comprising three original research stud-ies (one published, one submitted and one ready for submission; status March 2019). The dissertation introduces a generic computer model as a tool to investigate the behaviour and population dynamics of animals in cyclic environments. The model is further employed for analysing how migratory birds respond to various scenarios of altered food supply under global change. Here, ecological and evolutionary time-scales are considered, as well as the biological constraints and trade-offs the individual faces, which ultimately shape response dynamics at the population level. Further, the effect of fine-scale temporal patterns in re-source supply are studied, which is challenging to achieve experimentally. My findings predict population declines, altered behavioural timing and negative carry-over effects arising in migratory birds under global change. They thus stress the need for intensified research on how ecological mechanisms are affected by global change and for effective conservation measures for migratory birds. The open-source modelling software created for this dissertation can now be used for other taxa and related research questions. Overall, this thesis improves our mechanistic understanding of the impacts of global change on migratory birds as one prerequisite to comprehend ongoing global biodiversity loss. The research results are discussed in a broader ecological and scientific context in a concluding synthesis chapter.
Dispersal behavior plays an important role for the geographical distribution and population structure of any given species. Individual’s fitness, reproductive and competitive ability, and dispersal behavior can be determined by the age of the individual. Age-dependent as well as density-dependent dispersal patterns are common in many bird species. In this thesis, I first present age-dependent breeding ability and natal site fidelity in white storks (Ciconia ciconia); migratory birds breeding in large parts of Europe. I predicted that both the proportion of breeding birds and natal site fidelity increase with the age. After the seventies of the last century, following a steep population decline, a recovery of the white stork population has been observed in many regions in Europe. Increasing population density in the white stork population in Eastern Germany especially after 1983 allowed examining density- as well as age-dependent breeding dispersal patterns. Therefore second, I present whether: young birds show more often and longer breeding dispersal than old birds, and frequency of dispersal events increase with the population density increase, especially in the young storks. Third, I present age- and density-dependent dispersal direction preferences in the give population. I asked whether and how the major spring migration direction interacts with dispersal directions of white storks: in different age, and under different population densities. The proportion of breeding individuals increased in the first 22 years of life and then decreased suggesting, the senescent decay in aging storks. Young storks were more faithful to their natal sites than old storks probably due to their innate migratory direction and distance. Young storks dispersed more frequently than old storks in general, but not for longer distance. Proportion of dispersing individuals increased significantly with increasing population densities indicating, density- dependent dispersal behavior in white storks. Moreover, the finding of a significant interaction effects between the age of dispersing birds and year (1980–2006) suggesting, older birds dispersed more from their previous nest sites over time due to increased competition. Both young and old storks dispersed along their spring migration direction; however, directional preferences were different in young storks and old storks. Young storks tended to settle down before reaching their previous nest sites (leading to the south-eastward dispersal) while old birds tended to keep migrating along the migration direction after reaching their previous nest sites (leading to the north-westward dispersal). Cues triggering dispersal events may be age-dependent. Changes in the dispersal direction over time were observed. Dispersal direction became obscured during the second half of the observation period (1993–2006). Increase in competition may affect dispersal behavior in storks. I discuss the potential role of: age for the observed age-dependent dispersal behavior, and competition for the density dependent dispersal behavior. This Ph.D. thesis contributes significantly to the understanding of population structure and geographical distribution of white storks. Moreover, presented age- and density (competition)-dependent dispersal behavior helps understanding underpinning mechanisms of dispersal behavior in bird species.
Different habitat models were created for the White Stork (Ciconia ciconia) in the region of the former German province of East Prussia (equals app. the current Russian oblast Kaliningrad and the Polish voivodship Warmia-Masuria). Different historical data sets describing the occurrence of the White Stork in the 1930s, as well as selected variables for the description of landscape and habitat, were employed. The processing and modeling of the applied data sets was done with a geographical information system (ArcGIS) and a statistical modeling approach that comes from the disciplines of machine-learning and data mining (TreeNet by Salford Systems Ltd.). Applying historical habitat descriptors, as well as data on the occurrence of the White Stork, models on two different scales were created: (i) a point scale model applying a raster with a cell size of 1 km2 and (ii) an administrative district scale model based on the organization of the former province of East Prussia. The evaluation of the created models show that the occurrence of White Stork nesting grounds in the former East Prussia for most parts is defined by the variables ‘forest’, ‘settlement area’, ‘pasture land’ and ‘proximity to coastline’. From this set of variables it can be assumed that a good food supply and nesting opportunities are provided to the White Stork in pasture and meadows as well as in the proximity to human settlements. These could be seen as crucial factors for the choice of nesting White Stork in East Prussia. Dense forest areas appear to be unsuited as nesting grounds of White Storks. The high influence of the variable ‘coastline’ is most likely explained by the specific landscape composition of East Prussia parallel to the coastline and is to be seen as a proximal factor for explaining the distribution of breeding White Storks. In a second step, predictions for the period of 1981 to 1993 could be made applying both scales of the models created in this study. In doing so, a decline of potential nesting habitat was predicted on the point scale. In contrast, the predicted White Stork occurrence increases when applying the model of the administrative district scale. The difference between both predictions is to be seen in the application of different scales (density versus suitability as breeding ground) and partly dissimilar explanatory variables. More studies are needed to investigate this phenomenon. The model predictions for the period 1981 to 1993 could be compared to the available inventories of that period. It shows that the figures predicted here were higher than the figures established by the census. This means that the models created here show rather a capacity of the habitat (potential niche). Other factors affecting the population size e.g. breeding success or mortality have to be investigated further. A feasible approach on how to generate possible habitat models was shown employing the methods presented here and applying historical data as well as assessing the effects of changes in land use on the White Stork. The models present the first of their kind, and could be improved by means of further data regarding the structure of the habitat and more exact spatially explicit information on the location of the nesting sites of the White Stork. In a further step, a habitat model of the present times should be created. This would allow for a more precise comparison regarding the findings from the changes of land use and relevant conditions of the environment on the White Stork in the region of former East Prussia, e.g. in the light of coming landscape changes brought by the European Union (EU).