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Institute
- Institut für Geowissenschaften (142) (remove)
Disproportionate single-species contribution to canopy-soil nutrient flux in an Amazonian rainforest
(2012)
Rainfall, throughfall and stemflow were monitored on an event basis in an undisturbed open tropical rainforest with a large number of palm trees located in the southwestern Amazon basin of Brazil. Stemflow samples were collected from 24 trees with a diameter at breast height (DBH) > 5 cm, as well as eight young and four full-grown babassu palms (Attalea speciosa Mart.) for 5 weeks during the peak of the wet season. We calculated rainfall, throughfall and stemflow concentrations and fluxes of Na+, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+,, Cl-, SO42-, NO3- and H+ and stemflow volume-weighted mean concentrations and fluxes for three size classes of broadleaf trees and three size classes of palms. The concentrations of most solutes were higher in stemflow than in rainfall and increased with increasing tree and palm size. Concentration enrichments from rainfall to stemflow and throughfall were particularly high (81-fold) for NO3-. Stemflow fluxes of NO3- and H+ exceeded throughfall fluxes but stemflow fluxes of other solutes were less than throughfall fluxes. Stemflow solute fluxes to the forest soil were dominated by fluxes on babassu palms, which represented only 4% of total stem number and 10% of total basal area. For NO3-, stemflow contributed 51% of the total mass of nitrogen delivered to the forest floor (stemflow + throughfall) and represented more than a 2000-fold increase in NO3- flux compared what would have been delivered by rainfall alone on the equivalent area. Because these highly localized fluxes of both water and NO3- persist in time and space, they have the potential to affect patterns of soil moisture, microbial populations and other features of soil biogeochemistry conducive to the creation of hotspots for nitrogen leaching and denitrification, which could amount to an important fraction of total ecosystem fluxes. Because these hotspots occur over very small areas, they have likely gone undetected in previous studies and need to be considered as an important feature of the biogeochemistry of palm-rich tropical forest.
Amonchquite dyke, in the vicinity of Loch Roag, Lewis, Outer Hebrides has an unusually enriched chemistry, and contains a unique assemblage of megacrysts and xenoliths from the lithosphere of the Hebridean craton. A Ar-40/Ar-39 plateau age of 45.2 +/- 0.2 Ma (2 sigma) of a phlogopite megacryst from the dyke overlaps an earlier reported K-Ar age, and confirms that the British Palaeogene Igneous Province extended into the Eocene. Similar late low-volume melts were erupted in the Eocene and Oligocene in West and East Greenland, suggesting that such late-stage magmatic rejuvenescence is a widespread feature across the North Atlantic Igneous Province.
In order to identify the areas in the Xilingele grassland which are sensitive to wind erosion, a computational fluid dynamics model (CFD-WEM) was used to simulate the wind fields over a region of 37 km(2) which contains different topography and land use types. Previous studies revealed the important influences of topography and land use on wind erosion in the Xilingele grassland. Topography influences wind fields at large scale, and land use influences wind fields near the ground. Two steps were designed to implement the CFD wind simulation, and they were respectively to simulate the influence of topography and surface roughness on the wind. Digital elevation model (DEM) and surface roughness length were the key inputs for the CFD simulation. The wind simulation by CFD-WEM was validated by a wind data set which was measured simultaneously at six positions in the field. Three scenarios with different wind velocities were designed based on observed dust storm events, and wind fields were simulated according to these scenarios to predict the sensitive areas to wind erosion. General assumptions that cropland is the most sensitive area to wind erosion and heavily and moderately grazed grasslands are both sensitive etc. can be refined by the modelling of CFD-WEM. Aided by the results of this study, the land use planning and protection measures against wind erosion can be more efficient. Based on the case study in the Xilingele grassland, a method of regional wind erosion assessment aided by CFD wind simulation is summarized. The essence of this method is a combination of CFD wind simulation and determination of threshold wind velocity for wind erosion. Because of the physically-based simulation and the flexibility of the method, it can be generalised to other regions.
Tsunami early warning (TEW) is a challenging task as a decision has to be made within few minutes on the basis of incomplete and error-prone data. Deterministic warning systems have difficulties in integrating and quantifying the intrinsic uncertainties. In contrast, probabilistic approaches provide a framework that handles uncertainties in a natural way. Recently, we have proposed a method using Bayesian networks (BNs) that takes into account the uncertainties of seismic source parameter estimates in TEW. In this follow-up study, the method is applied to 10 recent large earthquakes offshore Sumatra and tested for its performance. We have evaluated both the general model performance given the best knowledge we have today about the source parameters of the 10 events and the corresponding response on seismic source information evaluated in real-time. We find that the resulting site-specific warning level probabilities represent well the available tsunami wave measurements and observations. Difficulties occur in the real-time tsunami assessment if the moment magnitude estimate is severely over- or underestimated. In general, the probabilistic analysis reveals a considerably large range of uncertainties in the near-field TEW. By quantifying the uncertainties the BN analysis provides important additional information to a decision maker in a warning centre to deal with the complexity in TEW and to reason under uncertainty.
While the Dead Sea basin has been studied for a long time, the available knowledge about the detailed seismicity distribution in the area, as well as the deeper structure of the basin, is limited. Therefore, within the framework of the international project DESIRE (DEad Sea Integrated REsearch project), a dense temporary local seismological network was operated in the southern Dead Sea area. We use 530 local earthquakes, having all together 26 730 P- and S-arrival times for a simultaneous inversion of 1-D velocity models, station corrections and precise earthquake locations. Jackknife tests suggest an accuracy of the derived hypocentre locations of about 1 km. Thus, the result is the first clear image of the absolute distribution of the microseismicity of the area, especially in depth. The seismicity is concentrated in the upper crust down to 20 km depth while the lower limit of the seismicity is reached at 31 km depth. The seismic events at the eastern boundary fault (EBF) in the southern part of the study area represent the northward transform motion of the Arabian Plate along the Dead Sea Transform. North of the Boqeq fault the seismic activity represents the transfer of the motion in the pull-apart basin from the eastern to the western boundary. We find that from the surface downward the seismic events are tracing the boundary faults of the basin. The western boundary is mapped down to 12 km depth while the EBF reaches about 17 km depth, forming an asymmetric basin. One fifth of the data set is related to a specific cluster in time and space, which occurred in 2007 February at the western border fault. This cluster is aligned vertically, that is, it is perpendicular to the direction of the dominating left-lateral strike-slip movement at the main transform fault.
The Maule earthquake of 27th February 2010 (M-w = 8.8) affected similar to 500 km of the Nazca-South America plate boundary in south-central Chile producing spectacular crustal deformation. Here, we present a detailed estimate of static coseismic surface offsets as measured by survey and continuous GPS, both in near- and far-field regions. Earthquake slip along the megathrust has been inferred from a Joint inversion of our new data together with published GPS, InSAR, and land-level changes data using Green's functions generated by a spherical finite-element model with realistic subduction zone geometry. The combination of the data sets provided a good resolution, indicating that most of the slip was well resolved. Coseismic slip was concentrated north of the epicenter with up to 16 m of slip, whereas to the south it reached over 10 m within two minor patches. A comparison of coseismic slip with the slip deficit accumulated since the last great earthquake in 1835 suggests that the 2010 event closed a mature seismic gap. Slip deficit distribution shows an apparent local overshoot that highlight cycle-to-cycle variability, which has to be taken into account when anticipating future events from interseismic observations. Rupture propagation was obviously not affected by bathymetric features of the incoming plate. Instead, splay faults in the upper plate seem to have limited rupture propagation in the updip and along-strike directions. Additionally, we found that along-strike gradients in slip are spatially correlated with geometrical inflections of the megathrust. Our study suggests that persistent tectonic features may control strain accumulation and release along subduction megathrusts.
Although a large fraction of the world's biomass resides in the subsurface, there has been no study of the effects of catastrophic disturbance on the deep biosphere and the rate of its subsequent recovery. We carried out an investigation of the microbiology of a 1.76 km drill core obtained from the similar to 35 million-year-old Chesapeake Bay impact structure, USA, with robust contamination control. Microbial enumerations displayed a logarithmic downward decline, but the different gradient, when compared to previously studied sites, and the scatter of the data are consistent with a rnicrobiota influenced by the geological disturbances caused by the impact. Microbial abundance is low in buried crater-fill, ocean-resurge, and avalanche deposits despite the presence of redox couples for growth. Coupled with the low hydraulic conductivity, the data suggest the microbial community has not yet recovered from the impact similar to 35 million years ago. Microbial enumerations, molecular analysis of microbial enrichment cultures, and geochemical analysis showed recolonization of a deep region of impact-fractured rock that was heated to above the upper temperature limit for life at the time of impact. These results show how, by fracturing subsurface rocks, impacts can extend the depth of the biosphere. This phenomenon would have provided deep refugia for life on the more heavily bombarded early Earth, and it shows that the deeply fractured regions of impact craters are promising targets to study the past and present habitability of Mars.
Site-specific soil moisture and groundwater levels are key input parameters for ecological modeling. Obtaining such information in a comprehensive manner is difficult for large regions. We studied a floodplain region in the Federal State of Brandenburg, Germany, to examine the degree to which the average depth of groundwater tables can be derived from surface temperatures obtained by the ASTER radiospectrometer (spatial resolution of 90 m per pixel). A floristic ecological indicator representing the site-specific moisture level was applied to develop a proxy between the thermal satellite data and groundwater table depth. The use of spring scenes (late April to early May) from 2 years proved to be well suited for minimizing the effects of weather and land use. Vegetation surveys along transects that were 2 m wide across the pixel diagonals allowed for the calculation of average ecological moisture values of pixel-sites by applying Ellenberg-numbers. These values were used to calibrate the satellite data locally. There was a close relationship between surface temperature and the average ecological moisture value (R2 = 0.73). Average ecological moisture values were highly indicative of the average groundwater levels during a 7-year measurement series (R2 = 0.93). Satellite-supported thermal data from spring were suitable for estimating the average groundwater levels of low-lying grasslands on a larger scale. Ecological moisture values from the transect surveys effectively allowed the incorporation of relief heterogeneity within the thermal grid and the establishment of the correlation between thermal data and average groundwater table depth. Regression functions were used to produce a map of groundwater levels at the study site.
Intensive grazing leads to land degradation and desertification of grassland ecosystems followed by serious environmental and social problems. The Xilingol steppe grassland in Inner Mongolia, China, which has been a sink area for dust for centuries, is strongly affected by the negative effects of overgrazing and wind erosion. The aim of this study is the provision of a wind erosion risk map with a spatial high resolution of 25 m to identify actual source and sink areas. In an integrative approach, field measurements of vegetation features and surface roughness length z0 were combined with Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) image data for a land use classification. To determine the characteristics of the different land use classes, a field observation (ground truth) was performed in April 2009. The correlation of vegetation height and z0 (R2 = 0.8, n = 55) provided the basis for a separation of three main classes, grassland, non-vegetation and other. The integration of the soil-adjusted vegetation index (SAVI) and the spectral information from the atmospheric corrected ASTER bands 1, 2 and 3 (visible to near-infrared) led to a classification of the overall accuracy (OA) of 0.79 with a kappa () statistic of 0.74, respectively. Additionally, a digital elevation model (DEM) was used to identify topographical effects in relation to the main wind direction, which enabled a qualitative estimation of potential dust deposition areas. The generated maps result in a significantly higher description of the spatial variability in the Xilingol steppe grassland reflecting the different land use intensities on the current state of the grassland less, moderately and highly degraded. The wind erosion risk map enables the identification of characteristic mineral dust sources, sinks and transition zones.
Vertical flow filters are containers filled with porous medium that are recharged from top and drained at the bottom, and are operated at partly saturated conditions. They have recently been suggested as treatment technology for groundwater containing volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Numerical reactive transport simulations were performed to investigate the relevance of different filter operation modes on biodegradation and/or volatilization of the contaminants and to evaluate the potential limitation of such remediation mean due to volatile emissions. On the basis of the data from a pilot-scale vertical flow filter intermittently fed with domestic waste water, model predictions on the systems performance for the treatment of contaminated groundwater were derived. These simulations considered the transport and aerobic degradation of ammonium and two VOCs, benzene and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE). In addition, the advective-diffusive gas-phase transport of volatile compounds as well as oxygen was simulated. Model predictions addressed the influence of depth and frequency of the intermittent groundwater injection, degradation rate kinetics, and the composition of the filter material. Simulation results show that for unfavorable operation conditions significant VOC emissions have to be considered and that operation modes limiting VOC emissions may limit aerobic biodegradation. However, a suitable combination of injection depth and composition of the filter material does facilitate high biodegradation rates while only little VOC emissions take place. Using such optimized operation modes would allow using vertical flow filter systems as remediation technology suitable for groundwater contaminated with volatile compounds.
The first 1400-year floating varve chronology for north-eastern Germany covering the late Allered to the early Holocene has been established by microscopic varve counts from the Rehwiese palaeolake sediment record. The Laacher See Tephra (LST), at the base of the studied interval, forms the tephrochronological anchor point. The fine laminations were examined using a combination of micro-facies and mu XRF analyses and are typical of calcite varves, which in this case provide mainly a warm season signal. Two varve types with different sub-layer structures have been distinguished: (I) complex varves consisting of up to four seasonal sub-layers formed during the Allered and early Holocene periods, and, (II) simple two sub-layer type varves only occurring during the Younger Dryas. The precision of the chronology has been improved by varve-to-varve comparison of two independently analyzed sediment profiles based on well-defined micro-marker layers. This has enabled both (1) the precise location of single missing varies in one of the sediment profiles, and, (2) the verification of varve interpolation in disturbed varve intervals in the parallel core. Inter-annual and decadal-scale variability in sediment deposition processes were traced by multi-proxy data series including seasonal layer thickness, high-resolution element scans and total organic and inorganic carbon data at a five-varve resolution. These data support the idea of a two-phase Younger Dryas, with the first interval (12,675-12,275 varve years BP) characterised by a still significant but gradually decreasing warm-season calcite precipitation and a second phase (12,275-11,690 varve years BP) with only weak calcite precipitation. Detailed correlation of these two phases with the Meerfelder Maar record based on the LST isochrone and independent varve counts provides clues about regional differences and seasonal aspects of YD climate change along a transect from a location proximal to the North Atlantic in the west to a more continental site in the east
A multi-proxy study including analyses of delta C-13(org) for the lake sediment core GN-02 and grain size, TOC. CaCO3 content, delta C-13(carb) and delta O-18(carb) of bulk carbonate, and the mineralogy of the parallel core GN-04 from Gun Nuur was performed to reconstruct the Holocene hydrology and climate on the northern Mongolian Plateau. The chronology was established using 40 C-14 dates of bulk organic matter in addition to nine previously published radiocarbon dates for core GN-02, and further five C-14 dates for the new core GN-04. A lake reservoir effect of 1060 C-14 years was determined as the intercept of the high-resolution GN-02 age-depth model at the modern sediment surface. The size of the reservoir effect is supported by the age of the core-top sample (1200 +/- 40 C-14 years) and the determined difference between a wood-derived radiocarbon age from the GN-02 core base and the age-model inferred age for bulk organic matter at the same stratigraphic level (1000 C-14 years). Low lake level and prevailing aeolian sediment deposition at Gun Nuur under dry conditions were recorded during the earliest Holocene (> 10,800-10,300 cal a BP). Gun Nuur expanded under significantly wetter conditions between 10,300 and 7000 cal a BP. Unstable climate conditions existed in the mid Holocene (7000-2500 cal a BP) and three periods of low lake-levels and significantly drier conditions were recorded between 7000-5700, 4100-3600 and 3000-2500 cal a BP. Intermediate lake levels were inferred for the intervening periods. Around 2500 cal a BP, the climate change and wetter conditions were established again. As a consequence, the lake level of Gun Nuur rose again due to higher effective moisture and the relatively wet present conditions were achieved ca. 1600 cal a BP. Our results suggest that the initial Holocene climate change on the northern Mongolian Plateau was not accompanied by a rapid increase in precipitation as on the Tibetan Plateau. The establishment of wetter conditions in northern Mongolia lagged behind the early Holocene moisture increase on the Tibetan Plateau by ca. 1000 years. Subsiding dry air in the north of the Tibetan Plateau resulted from the strengthened summer monsoon on the Tibetan Plateau during the period of maximum summer insolation and probably inhibited a significant precipitation increase in Mongolia. The significant moisture increase in the Gun Nuur region at ca. 10.3 cal ka BP is probably not related to the northward shift of the present summer monsoon boundary or the moisture delivery from the northern Atlantic through the westerlies. Instead, water from melting snow, ice and frozen ground and the generation of precipitation from the local recycling of moisture are discussed as possible moisture source for the early onset of wetter conditions on the Mongolian Plateau.
The southwest margin of the Central Anatolian Plateau has experienced multiple phases of topographic growth, including the formation of localized highs prior to the Late Miocene that were later affected by wholesale uplift of the plateau margin. Our new biostratigraphic data limit the age of uplifted marine sediments at the southwest plateau margin at 1.5 km elevation to <7.17 Ma, and regional lithostratigraphic correlations imply that the age is <6.7 Ma. Single-grain CA-TIMS U-Pb zircon analyses from a reworked ash within the marine sediments yield dates as young as 10.6 Ma, indicating a maximum age that is consistent with the biostratigraphy. Our structural measurements within the uplifted region and fault inversion modeling agree with previous findings in surrounding regions, with early contraction followed by strike-slip and extensional deformation during uplift. Focal mechanisms from shallow earthquakes show that the extensional phase has continued to the present. Broad similarities in the change in the tectonic stress regime (after 8 Ma) and the onset of surface uplift (after 7 Ma) imply that deep-seated process(es) caused post-7 Ma uplift. The geometry of lithospheric slabs beneath the plateau margin, Pliocene to recent alkaline volcanism, and the uplift pattern with accompanying normal faulting point toward slab tearing and localized heating at the base of the lithosphere as a probable mechanism for post-7 Ma uplift of the southwest margin. Considering previous work in the region, there appears to be an important link between slab dynamics and surface uplift throughout the Anatolian Plateau’s southern margin.
Analyzing insurance-loss data we derive stochastic storm-damage functions for residential buildings. On district level we fit power-law relations between daily loss and maximum wind speed, typically spanning more than 4 orders of magnitude. The estimated exponents for 439 German districts roughly range from 8 to 12. In addition, we find correlations among the parameters and socio-demographic data, which we employ in a simplified parametrization of the damage function with just 3 independent parameters for each district. A Monte Carlo method is used to generate loss estimates and confidence bounds of daily and annual storm damages in Germany. Our approach reproduces the annual progression of winter storm losses and enables to estimate daily losses over a wide range of magnitudes. Citation: Prahl, B. F., D. Rybski, J. P. Kropp, O. Burghoff, and H. Held (2012), Applying stochastic small-scale damage functions to German winter storms, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L06806, doi: 10.1029/2012GL050961.
Forests seem to represent low-erosion systems, according to most, but not all, studies of suspended-sediment yield. We surmised that this impression reflects an accidental bias in the selection of monitoring sites towards those with prevailing vertical hydrological flowpaths, rather than a tight causal link between vegetation cover and erosion alone. To evaluate this conjecture, we monitored, over a 2-year period, a 3.3 ha old-growth rainforest catchment prone to frequent and widespread overland flow. We sampled stream flow at two and overland flow at three sites in a nested arrangement on a within-event basis, and monitored the spatial and temporal frequency of overland flow. Suspended-sediment concentrations were modeled with Random Forest and Quantile Regression Forest to be able to estimate the annual yields for the 2 years, which amounted to 1 t ha(-1) and 2 t ha(-1) in a year with below-average and with average precipitation, respectively. These estimates place our monitoring site near the high end of reported suspended-sediment yields and lend credence to the notion that low yields reflect primarily the dominance of vertical flowpaths and not necessarily and exclusively the kind of vegetative cover. Undisturbed forest and surface erosion are certainly no contradiction in terms even in the absence of mass movements.
A temporary seismic network composed of 11 stations was installed in the city of Potenza (Southern Italy) to record local and regional seismicity within the context of a national project funded by the Italian Department of Civil Protection (DPC). Some stations were moved after a certain time in order to increase the number of measurement points, leading to a total of 14 sites within the city by the end of the experiment. Recordings from 26 local earthquakes (M-l 2.2-3.8 ) were analyzed to compute the site responses at the 14 sites by applying both reference and non-reference site techniques. Furthermore, the Spectral Intensity (SI) for each local earthquake, as well as their ratios with respect to the values obtained at a reference site, were also calculated. In addition, a field survey of 233 single station noise measurements within the city was carried out to increase the information available at localities different from the 14 monitoring sites. By using the results of the correlation analysis between the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios computed from noise recordings (NHV) at the 14 selected sites and those derived by the single station noise measurements within the town as a proxy, the spectral intensity correction factors for site amplification obtained from earthquake analysis were extended to the entire city area. This procedure allowed us to provide a microzonation map of the urban area that can be directly used when calculating risk scenarios for civil defence purposes. The amplification factors estimated following this approach show values increasing along the main valley toward east where the detrital and alluvial complexes reach their maximum thickness.
We have undertaken structural, geomorphological, and morphometric analyses to investigate the role of tectonism and climate in the landscape evolution in the upper Spiti valley, NW Himalayas. Geomorphometric analyses coupled with field investigations reveal active tectonic deformation in the Spiti region. The calculated geomorphic indices (steepness, concavity and Hack) demonstrate uplift/subsidence along the Kaurik-Chango fault, whereas transverse topographic index (T-index) reveals basin tilting associated with active faulting near Hansa and Lingti valley. Investigation of well-dated Mane palaeolake sediments also provides evidence of regional tectonic instability. Four episodes (ca. 7.8, 7.4, 6.5 and 6.1 cal ka) of neotectonic activity have been identified during the period of the lake's existence. We have also compiled data on the regional climate variability and compared it with the age of the Mane palaeo-landslide. Our results indicate that the landslide occurred towards the end of the early Holocene intensified monsoon phase and is located near an active fault. Our data on regional tectonic instability and the coincidences of modern and palaeo-landslides with zones of active deformation suggest that tectonism is an important factor governing landscape stability in the Spiti region.
The most recent intense earthquake swarm in West Bohemia lasted from 6 October 2008 to January 2009. Starting 12 days after the onset, the University of Potsdam monitored the swarm by a temporary small-aperture seismic array at 10 km epicentral distance. The purpose of the installation was a complete monitoring of the swarm including micro-earthquakes (M (L) < 0). We identify earthquakes using a conventional short-term average/long-term average trigger combined with sliding-window frequency-wavenumber and polarisation analyses. The resulting earthquake catalogue consists of 14,530 earthquakes between 19 October 2008 and 18 March 2009 with magnitudes in the range of -aEuro parts per thousand 1.2 a parts per thousand currency signaEuro parts per thousand M (L) a parts per thousand currency signaEuro parts per thousand 2.7. The small-aperture seismic array substantially lowers the detection threshold to about M (c) = -aEuro parts per thousand 0.4, when compared to the regional networks operating in West Bohemia (M (c) > 0.0). In the course of this work, the main temporal features (frequency-magnitude distribution, propagation of back azimuth and horizontal slowness, occurrence rate of aftershock sequences and interevent-time distribution) of the recent 2008/2009 earthquake swarm are presented and discussed. Temporal changes of the coefficient of variation (based on interevent times) suggest that the swarm earthquake activity of the 2008/2009 swarm terminates by 12 January 2009. During the main phase in our studied swarm period after 19 October, the b value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation decreases from 1.2 to 0.8. This trend is also reflected in the power-law behavior of the seismic moment release. The corresponding total seismic moment release of 1.02x10(17) Nm is equivalent to M (L,max) = 5.4.
To provide physically based wind modelling for wind erosion research at regional scale, a 3D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) wind model was developed. The model was programmed in C language based on the Navier-Stokes equations, and it is freely available as open source. Integrated with the spatial analysis and modelling tool (SAMT), the wind model has convenient input preparation and powerful output visualization. To validate the wind model, a series of experiments was conducted in a wind tunnel. A blocking inflow experiment was designed to test the performance of the model on simulation of basic fluid processes. A round obstacle experiment was designed to check if the model could simulate the influences of the obstacle on wind field. Results show that measured and simulated wind fields have high correlations, and the wind model can simulate both the basic processes of the wind and the influences of the obstacle on the wind field. These results show the high reliability of the wind model. A digital elevation model (DEM) of an area (3800 m long and 1700 m wide) in the Xilingele grassland in Inner Mongolia (autonomous region, China) was applied to the model, and a 3D wind field has been successfully generated. The clear implementation of the model and the adequate validation by wind tunnel experiments laid a solid foundation for the prediction and assessment of wind erosion at regional scale.
Constructing a hidden Markov Model based earthquake detector: application to induced seismicity
(2012)
The triggering or detection of seismic events out of a continuous seismic data stream is one of the key issues of an automatic or semi-automatic seismic monitoring system. In the case of dense networks, either local or global, most of the implemented trigger algorithms are based on a large number of active stations. However, in the case of only few available stations or small events, for example, like in monitoring volcanoes or hydrothermal power plants, common triggers often show high false alarms. In such cases detection algorithms are of interest, which show reasonable performance when operating even on a single station. In this context, we apply Hidden Markov Models (HMM) which are algorithms borrowed from speech recognition. However, many pitfalls need to be avoided to apply speech recognition technology directly to earthquake detection. We show the fit of the model parameters in an innovative way. State clustering is introduced to refine the intrinsically assumed time dependency of the HMMs and we explain the effect coda has on the recognition results. The methodology is then used for the detection of anthropogenicly induced earthquakes for which we demonstrate for a period of 3.9 months of continuous data that the single station HMM earthquake detector can achieve similar detection rates as a common trigger in combination with coincidence sums over two stations. To show the general applicability of state clustering we apply the proposed method also to earthquake classification at Mt. Merapi volcano, Indonesia.
Large research initiatives such as the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) or the Seismic HAzard haRmonization in Europe (SHARE) projects concentrate a great collaborative effort on defining a global standard for seismic hazard estimations. In this context, there is an increasing need for identifying ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) that can be applied at both global and regional scale. With increasing amounts of strong-motion records that are now available worldwide, observational data can provide a valuable resource to tackle this question. Using the global dataset of Allen and Wald (2009), we evaluate the ability of 11 GMPEs to predict ground-motion in different active shallow crustal regions worldwide. Adopting the approach of Scherbaum et al. (2009), we rank these GMPEs according to their likelihood of having generated the data. In particular, we estimate how strongly data support or reject the models with respect to the state of noninformativeness defined by a uniform weighting. Such rankings derived from this particular global dataset enable us to explore the potential of GMPEs to predict ground motions in their host region and also in other regions depending on the magnitude and distance considered. In the ranking process, we particularly focus on the influence of the distribution of the testing dataset compared with the GMPE's native dataset. One of the results of this study is that some nonindigenous models present a high degree of consistency with the data from a target region. Two models in particular demonstrated a strong power of geographically wide applicability in different geographic regions with respect to the testing dataset: the models of Akkar and Bommer (2010) and Chiou et al. (2010).
In the framework of the Dead Sea Integrated Research project (DESIRE), 59 seismological stations were deployed in the region of the Dead Sea Basin. Twenty of these stations recorded data of sufficiently high quality between May and September 2007 to be used for ambient seismic noise analysis. Empirical Green's functions are extracted from cross-correlations of long term recordings. These functions are dominated by Rayleigh waves, whose group velocities can be measured in the frequency range from 0.1 to 0.5 Hz. Analysis of positive and negative correlation lags of the Green's functions makes it possible to identify the direction of the source of the incoming energy. Signals with frequencies higher than 0.2 Hz originate from the Mediterranean Sea, while low frequencies arrive from the direction of the Red Sea. Travel times of the extracted Rayleigh waves were measured between station pairs for different frequencies, and tomographically inverted to provide independent velocity models. Four such 2D models were computed for a set of frequencies, all corresponding to different sampling depths, and thus together giving an indication of the velocity variations in 3D extending to a depth of 10 km. The results show low velocities in the Dead Sea Basin, consistent with previous studies suggesting up to 8 km of recent sedimentary infill in the Basin. The complex structure of the western margin of the Basin is also observed, with sedimentary infill present to depths not exceeding 5 km west of the southern part of the Dead Sea. The high velocities associated with the Lisan salt diapir are also observed down to a depth of similar to 5 km. The reliability of the results is confirmed by checkerboard recovery tests.
In many near-surface geophysical studies it is now common practice to collect co-located disparate geophysical data sets to explore subsurface structures. Reconstruction of physical parameter distributions underlying the available geophysical data sets usually requires the use of tomographic reconstruction techniques. To improve the quality of the obtained models, the information content of all data sets should be considered during the model generation process, e.g., by employing joint or cooperative inversion approaches. Here, we extend the zonal cooperative inversion methodology based on fuzzy c-means cluster analysis and conventional single-input data set inversion algorithms for the cooperative inversion of data sets with partially co-located model areas. This is done by considering recent developments in fuzzy c-means cluster analysis. Additionally, we show how supplementary a priori information can be incorporated in an automated fashion into the zonal cooperative inversion approach to further constrain the inversion. The only requirement is that this a priori information can be expressed numerically; e.g., by physical parameters or indicator variables. We demonstrate the applicability of the modified zonal cooperative inversion approach using synthetic and field data examples. In these examples, we cooperatively invert S- and P-wave traveltime data sets with partially co-located model areas using water saturation information expressed by indicator variables as additional a priori information. The approach results in a zoned multi-parameter model, which is consistent with all available information given to the zonal cooperative inversion and outlines the major subsurface units. In our field example, we further compare the obtained zonal model to sparsely available borehole and direct-push logs. This comparison provides further confidence in our zonal cooperative inversion model because the borehole and direct-push logs indicate a similar zonation.
Submarine permafrost degradation rates may be determined by a number of interacting processes, including rates of sea level rise and coastal erosion, sea bottom temperature and salinity regimes, geothermal heat flux and heat and mass diffusion within the sediment column. Observations of ice-bearing permafrost in shelf sediments are necessary in order to determine its spatial distribution and to quantify its degradation rate. We tested the use of direct current electrical resistivity to ice-bearing permafrost in Elson Lagoon northeast of Barrow, Alaska (Beaufort Sea). A sharp increase in electrical resistivity was observed in profiles collected perpendicular to and along the coastline and is interpreted to be the boundary between ice-free sediment and underlying ice-bearing submarine permafrost. The depth to the interpreted ice-bearing permafrost increases from <2 m below sea level to over 12 m below sea level with increasing distance from the coastline. The dependence of the saline sediment electrical resistivity on temperature and freezing was measured in the laboratory to provide validation for the field measurements. Electrical resistivity was shown to be effective for detection of shallow ice-bearing permafrost in the coastal zone. Historical coastal retreat rates were combined with the inclination of the top of the ice-bearing permafrost to calculate mean vertical permafrost degradation rates of 1 to 4 cm yr(-1).
The tectonic and climatic boundary conditions of the broken foreland and the orogen interior of the southern Central Andes of northwestern Argentina cause strong contrasts in elevation, rainfall, and surface-process regimes. The climatic gradient in this region ranges from the wet, windward eastern flanks (similar to 2 m/yr rainfall) to progressively drier western basins and ranges (similar to 0.1 m/yr) bordering the arid Altiplano-Puna Plateau. In this study, we analyze the impact of spatiotemporal climatic gradients on surface erosion: First, we present 41 new catchment-mean erosion rates derived from cosmogenic nuclide inventories to document spatial erosion patterns. Second, we re-evaluate paleoclimatic records from the Calchaquies basin (66 W, 26 S), a large intermontane basin bordered by high (> 4.5 km) mountain ranges, to demonstrate temporal variations in erosion rates associated with changing climatic boundary conditions during the late Pleistocene and Holocene. Three key observations in this region emphasize the importance of climatic parameters on the efficiency of surface processes in space and time: (1) First-order spatial patterns of erosion rates can be explained by a simple specific stream power (SSP) approach. We explicitly account for discharge by routing high-resolution, satellite derived rainfall. This is important as the steep climatic gradient results in a highly non-linear relation between drainage area and discharge. This relation indicates that erosion rates (ER) scale with ER similar to SSP1.4 on cosmogenic-nuclide time scales. (2) We identify an intrinsic channel-slope behavior in different climatic compartments. Channel slopes in dry areas (< 0.25 m/yr rainfall) are slightly steeper than in wet areas (> 0.75 m/yr) with equal drainage areas, thus compensating lower amounts of discharge with steeper slopes. (3) Erosion rates can vary by an order of magnitude between presently dry (similar to 0.05 mm/yr) and well-defined late Pleistocene humid (similar to 0.5 mm/yr) conditions within an intemontane basin. Overall, we document a strong climatic impact on erosion rates and channel slopes. We suggest that rainfall reaching areas with steeper channel slopes in the orogen interior during wetter climate periods results in intensified sediment mass transport, which is primarily responsible for maintaining the balance between surface uplift, erosion, sediment routing and transient storage in the orogen.
P receiver functions from 23 stations of the SASE experiment in southern Africa are inverted simultaneously with SKS waveforms for azimuthal anisotropy in the upper mantle. Our analysis resolves the long-standing issue of depth dependence and origins of anisotropy beneath southern Africa. In the uppermost mantle we observe anisotropy with a nearly E-W fast direction, parallel to the trend of the Limpopo belt. This anisotropy may be frozen since the Archean. At a depth of 160 km the fast direction of anisotropy changes to 40 degrees and becomes close to the recent plate motion direction. This transition is nearly coincident in depth with activation of dominant glide systems in olivine and with a pronounced change in other properties of the upper mantle. Another large change in the fast direction of anisotropy corresponds to the previously found low-S-velocity layer atop the 410-km discontinuity. Citation: Vinnik, L., S. Kiselev, M. Weber, S. Oreshin, and L. Makeyeva (2012), Frozen and active seismic anisotropy beneath southern Africa, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L08301, doi: 10.1029/2012GL051326.
Thermomechanical model reconciles contradictory geophysical observations at the Dead Sea Basin
(2012)
The Dead Sea Transform (DST) comprises a boundary between the African and Arabian plates. During the last 15-20 m.y. more than 100 km of left lateral transform displacement has been accumulated on the DST and about 10 km thick Dead Sea Basin (DSB) was formed in the central part of the DST. Widespread igneous activity since some 20 Ma ago and especially in the last 5 m.y., thin (60-80 km) lithosphere constrained by seismic data and absence of seismicity below the Moho, seem to be quite natural for this tectonically active plate boundary. However, surface heat flow values of less than 50-60 mW/m(2) and deep seismicity in the lower crust (deeper than 20 km) reported for this region are apparently inconsistent with the tectonic settings specific for an active continental plate boundary and with the crustal structure of the DSB. To address these inconsistencies which comprise what we call the "DST heat-flow paradox," we have developed a numerical model that assumes an erosion of initially thick and cold lithosphere just before or during the active faulting at the DST. The optimal initial conditions for the model are defined using transient thermal analysis. From the results of our numerical experiments we conclude that the entire set of observations for the DSB can be explained within the classical pull-apart model assuming that the lithosphere has been thermally eroded at about 20 Ma and the uppermost mantle in the region have relatively weak rheology consistent with experimental data for wet olivine or pyroxenite.
The inversion of surface-wave dispersion curve to derive shear-wave velocity profile is a very delicate process dealing with a nonunique problem, which is strongly dependent on the model space parameterization. When independent and reliable information is not available, the selection of most representative models within the ensemble produced. by the inversion is often difficult. We implemented a strategy in the inversion of dispersion curves able to investigate the influence of the parameterization of the model space and to select a "best" class of models. We analyzed surface-wave dispersion curves measured at 14 European strong..-motion sites within the NERIES EC-Project. We focused on the inversion task exploring the model space by means of four distinct pararneterization classes composed of layers progressively added over a half-space. The classes differ in the definition of the shear-wave velocity profile; we considered models with uniform velocity as well as models with increasing velocity with depth. At each site and for each model parameterization, we performed an extensive surface-wave inversion (200,100 models for five seeds) using the conditional neighborhood algorithm. We addressed the model evaluation following the corrected Akaike's information criterion (AlCc) that combines the concept of misfit to the number of degrees of freedom of the system. The misfit was computed as least-squares estimation between theoretical and observed dispersion curve. The model complexity was accounted in a penalty term by AlCc. By applying such inversion strategy on 14 strong-motion sites, we found that the best parameterization of the model space is mostly three to four layers over a half-space: where the shear-wave velocity of the uppermost layers can follow uniform or power-law dependence with depth. The shear-wave velocity profiles derived by inversion agree with shear-wave velocity profiles provided by borehole surveys at approximately 80% of the sites.
Quantitative estimates of sediment flux and the global cycling of sediments from hillslopes to rivers, estuaries, deltas, continental shelves, and deep-sea basins have a long research tradition. In this context, extremely large and commensurately rare sediment transport events have so far eluded a systematic analysis. To start filling this knowledge gap I review some of the highest reported sediment yields in mountain rivers impacted by volcanic eruptions, earthquake- and storm-triggered landslide episodes, and catastrophic dam breaks. Extreme specific yields, defined here as those exceeding the 95th percentile of compiled data, are similar to 10(4) t km(-2) yr(-1) if averaged over 1 yr. These extreme yields vary by eight orders of magnitude, but systematically decay with reference intervals from minutes to millennia such that yields vary by three orders of magnitude for a given reference interval. Sediment delivery from natural dam breaks and pyroclastic eruptions dominate these yields for a given reference interval. Even if averaged over 10(2)-10(3) yr, the contribution of individual disturbances may remain elevated above corresponding catchment denudation rates. I further estimate rates of sediment (re-)mobilisation by individual giant terrestrial and submarine mass movements. Less than 50 postglacial submarine mass movements have involved an equivalent of similar to 10% of the contemporary annual global flux of fluvial sediment to Earth's oceans, while mobilisation rates by individual events rival the decadal-scale sediment discharge from tectonically active orogens such as Taiwan or New Zealand. Sediment flushing associated with catastrophic natural dam breaks is non-stationary and shows a distinct kink at the last glacial-interglacial transition, owing to the drainage of very large late Pleistocene ice-marginal lakes. Besides emphasising the contribution of high-magnitude and low-frequency events to the global sediment cascade, these findings stress the importance of sediment storage for fuelling rather than buffering high sediment transport rates.
Ecological implications of extreme events footprints of the 2010earthquake along the chilean coast
(2012)
Deciphering ecological effects of major catastrophic events such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, storms and fires, requires rapid interdisciplinary efforts often hampered by a lack of pre-event data. Using results of intertidal surveys conducted shortly before and immediately after Chile's 2010 M-w 8.8 earthquake along the entire rupture zone (ca. 34-38 degrees S), we provide the first quantification of earthquake and tsunami effects on sandy beach ecosystems. Our study incorporated anthropogenic coastal development as a key design factor. Ecological responses of beach ecosystems were strongly affected by the magnitude of land-level change. Subsidence along the northern rupture segment combined with tsunami-associated disturbance and drowned beaches. In contrast, along the co-seismically uplifted southern rupture, beaches widened and flattened increasing habitat availability. Post-event changes in abundance and distribution of mobile intertidal invertebrates were not uniform, varying with land-level change, tsunami height and coastal development. On beaches where subsidence occurred, intertidal zones and their associated species disappeared. On some beaches, uplift of rocky subtidal substrate eliminated low intertidal sand beach habitat for ecologically important species. On others, unexpected interactions of uplift with man-made coastal armouring included restoration of upper and mid-intertidal habitat seaward of armouring followed by rapid colonization of mobile crustaceans typical of these zones formerly excluded by constraints imposed by the armouring structures. Responses of coastal ecosystems to major earthquakes appear to vary strongly with land-level change, the mobility of the biota and shore type. Our results show that interactions of extreme events with human-altered shorelines can produce surprising ecological outcomes, and suggest these complex responses to landscape alteration can leave lasting footprints in coastal ecosystems.
The 'wet' early to mid-Holocene of tropical Africa, with its enhanced monsoon, ended with an abrupt shift toward drier conditions and was ultimately replaced by a drier climate that has persisted until the present day. The forcing mechanisms, the timing, and the spatial extent of this major climatic transition are not well understood and remain the subject of ongoing research. We have used a detailed palaeo-shoreline record from Lake Turkana (Kenya) to decipher and characterise this marked climatic transition in East Africa. We present a high-precision survey of well-preserved palaeo-shorelines, new radiocarbon ages from shoreline deposits, and oxygen-isotope measurements on freshwater mollusk shells to elucidate the Holocene moisture history from former lake water-levels in this climatically sensitive region. In combination with previously published data our study shows that during the early Holocene the water-level in Lake Turkana was high and the lake overflowed temporarily into the White Nile drainage system. During the mid-Holocene (similar to 5270 +/- 300 cal. yr BP), however, the lake water-level fell by similar to 50 m, coeval with major episodes of aridity on the African continent. A comparison between palaeo-hydrological and archaeological data from the Turkana Basin suggests that the mid-Holocene climatic transition was associated with fundamental changes in prehistoric cultures, highlighting the significance of natural climate variability and associated periods of protracted drought as major environmental stress factors affecting human occupation in the East African Rift System. (
Microbial communities can subsist at depth in marine sediments without fresh supply of organic matter for millions of years. At threshold sedimentation rates of 1 millimeter per 1000 years, the low rates of microbial community metabolism in the North Pacific Gyre allow sediments to remain oxygenated tens of meters below the sea floor. We found that the oxygen respiration rates dropped from 10 micromoles of O-2 liter(-1) year(-1) near the sediment-water interface to 0.001 micromoles of O-2 liter(-1) year(-1) at 30-meter depth within 86 million-year-old sediment. The cell-specific respiration rate decreased with depth but stabilized at around 10(-3) femtomoles of O-2 cell(-1) day(-1) 10 meters below the seafloor. This result indicated that the community size is controlled by the rate of carbon oxidation and thereby by the low available energy flux.
Coseismic coastal uplift has been quantified using sessile intertidal organisms after several great earthquakes following FitzRoy's pioneer measurements in 1835. A dense survey of such markers may complement space geodetic data to obtain an accurate distribution of fault slip and earthquake segmentation. However, uplift estimates based on diverse intertidal organisms tend to differ, because of few methodological and comparative studies. Here, we calibrate and estimate coastal uplift in the southern segment of the 2010 Maule, Chile earthquake (M-w = 8.8) using > 1100 post-earthquake elevation measurements of the sessile mussel Perumytilus purpuratus. This mussel is the predominant competitor for rocky shores all along the Pacific coast of South America, where it forms fringes or belts distinctively in the middle intertidal zone. These belts are centered at mean sea level and their width should equal one third of the tidal range. We measured belt widths close to this value at 40% of the sites, but overall widths are highly variable due to the unevenness in belt tops; belt bases, in turn, are rather regular. Belt top unevenness apparently results from locally-enhanced wave splash, whereas belt base evenness is controlled by predation. According to our measurements made beyond the earthquake rupture, the belt base is at the bottom of the middle intertidal zone, and thus we propose to estimate coastal uplift using the belt base mean elevation plus one sixth of the tidal range to reach mean sea level. Within errors our estimates agree with GPS displacements but differ from other methods. Comparisons of joint inversions for megathrust slip suggest combining space geodetic data with estimates from intertidal organisms may locally increase the detail of slip distributions.
A 352 cm long sediment core from Hersek Lagoon (Gulf of Izmit) was investigated for its ostracod species composition in order to evaluate the potential of ostracods to detect tsunami deposits in coastal environments. The Gulf of Izmit is the eastern bay of the Marmara Sea which is tectonically controlled by the North Anatolian Fault. Ostracod shells are rare in the lower third of the core, which probably represents a coastal wetland environment. According to radiocarbon dating of terrestrial plant remains, this unit was deposited between AD 500 and AD 800. Above, ostracod shells are abundant and dominantly monospecific, composed almost exclusively of the widespread brackish water ostracod Cyprideis torosa. This almost monospecific occurrence indicates the establishment and maintenance of the Hersek Lagoon after AD 800. Three distinct layers of mollusc shells and fragments contain ostracod shells of marine and to a lesser extent non-marine origin in addition to those of C. torosa. The shell layers are further characterized by significant maxima in total ostracod shell numbers. The high concentration of ostracod shells, the higher species numbers and the mixture of marine, lagoonal and non-marine ostracod shells shows that shell layers were formed as high-energy deposits resulting from tsunamis or large storms in the Marmara Sea. The partial occurrence of non-marine ostracod shells in the shell layers possibly indicates that tsunamis with extensive run-ups and significant backwash flows caused the high-energy deposits rather than large storms. The investigated sediments show that lagoonal ostracods can serve as good proxies for tsunamis or large storms through significant variations in total shell numbers, species numbers and the mixing of shells of different origin.
The details of how narrow, orogen-parallel ocean basins are filled with sediment by large axial submarine channels is important to understand because these depositional systems commonly form in through-like basins in various tectonic settings. The Magallanes foreland basin is an excellent location to study an orogen-parallel deep-marine system. Conglomerate lenses of the Upper Cretaceous Cerro Toro Formation have been previously interpreted to represent the fill of a single submarine channel (48 km wide, >100 km long) that funneled coarse detritus southward along the basin axis. This interpretation was based on lithologic correlations. New U/Pb dating of zircons from volcanic ashes and sandstones, coupled with strontium isotope stratigraphy, refine the controls on depositional ages and provenance. Results demonstrate that north-south oriented conglomerate lenses are contemporaneous within error limits (ca. 8482 Ma) supporting that they represent parts of an axial channel belt. Channel deposits 20 km west of the axial location are 8782 Ma in age. These channels are partly contemporaneous with the ones within the axial channel belt, making it likely that they represent feeders to the axial channel system. The northern Cerro Toro Formation spans a Turonian to Campanian interval (ca. 9082 Ma) whereas the formation top, 70 km to the south, is as young as ca. 76 Ma. KolmogorovSmirnoff statistical analysis on detrital zircon age distributions shows that the northern uppermost Cerro Toro Formation yields a statistically different age distribution than other samples from the same formation but shows no difference relative to the overlying Tres Pasos Formation. These results suggest the partly coeval deposition of both formations. Integration of previously acquired geochronologic and stratigraphic data with new data show a pronounced southward younging pattern in all four marine formations in the Magallanes Basin. Highly diachronous infilling may be an important depositional pattern for narrow, orogen-parallel ocean basins.
Important aspects of the Andean foreland basin in Argentina remain poorly constrained, such as the effect of deformation on deposition, in which foreland basin depozones Cenozoic sedimentary units were deposited, how sediment sources and drainages evolved in response to tectonics, and the thickness of sediment accumulation. Zircon U-Pb geochronological data from EocenePliocene sedimentary strata in the Eastern Cordillera of northwestern Argentina (PucaraAngastaco and La Vina areas) provide an Eocene (ca.similar to 38 similar to Ma) maximum depositional age for the Quebrada de los Colorados Formation. Sedimentological and provenance data reveal a basin history that is best explained within the context of an evolving foreland basin system affected by inherited palaeotopography. The Quebrada de los Colorados Formation represents deposition in the distal to proximal foredeep depozone. Development of an angular unconformity at ca.similar to 14 similar to Ma and the coarse-grained, proximal character of the overlying Angastaco Formation (lower to upper Miocene) suggest deposition in a wedge-top depozone. Axial drainage during deposition of the Palo Pintado Formation (upper Miocene) suggests a fluvial-lacustrine intramontane setting. By ca.similar to 4 similar to Ma, during deposition of the San Felipe Formation, the Angastaco area had become structurally isolated by the uplift of the Sierra de los Colorados Range to the east. Overall, the Eastern Cordillera sedimentary record is consistent with a continuous foreland basin system that migrated through the region from late Eocene through middle Miocene time. By middle Miocene time, the region lay within the topographically complex wedge-top depozone, influenced by thick-skinned deformation and re-activation of Cretaceous rift structures. The association of the Eocene Quebrada del los Colorados Formation with a foredeep depozone implies that more distal foreland deposits should be represented by pre-Eocene strata (Santa Barbara Subgroup) within the region.
In the young moraine landscape in Northeast Germany, small glacially created ponds, the so-called kettle holes, are very abundant. They exhibit large spatial heterogeneity, seemingly rendering each kettle hole unique. However, this would not be consistent with any scientific approach. Thus, a classification scheme has been developed for kettle holes in Northeast Germany based on morphology, hydrodynamics and connection to stream networks of the kettle holes as well as size, topography and land use of the respective catchment. These indices are assumed to be related both to water quality as well as to biological issues of the kettle holes. Starting in the mid-1990s, an extensive monitoring program has been established in the federal state of Brandenburg, Germany. In this study, a subset comprising 1,316 samples from 79 kettle holes was analysed, where 21 parameters had been determined. Sampling intervals varied widely, and were between bi-weekly and three-monthly at most sites. A nonlinear principal component analysis was performed. The first four components explained 90% of the variance. These components seem to provide quantitative measures of phosphorus release from the sediments during hypoxic periods, agricultural solute input, algae primary production, and geogenic compounds. This allowed differentiating between the natural and anthropogenic impact factors on water quality. In addition, scores of single components were related to properties of the kettle holes and their environments. The results contribute to a better understanding of biological and biogeochemical processes and can be used to verify the effects of conservation and management strategies for kettle holes.
In this study, we analyzed the influence of soil mineral characteristics (e. g., clay concentration and mineralogical composition, iron and aluminum oxide concentration and crystallinity, specific surface area, and exchangeable cation concentration) on (i) organic carbon (OC) content (kg m(-2)) and (ii) the concentration (g kg(-1)), composition, and stability of the mineral-associated organic matter (OM) of arable and forest topsoils. We selected seven soil types with different mineral characteristics for this study. For each soil type, samples were taken from topsoils of a deciduous forest and an adjacent arable site. The arable and forest sites have been used continuously for more than 100 years. Na-pyrophosphate soluble OM fractions (OM(PY)), representing mineral-associated OM, were extracted, analyzed for OC and C-14 concentrations, and characterized by FTIR spectroscopy. For the forest and arable topsoils, a linear relationship was found between the OC content and exchangeable Ca. For the arable topsoils (pH 6.7-7.5), correlation analyses indicated that the OCPY concentration increased with an increase in oxalate soluble Fe and Al, exchangeable Ca, and Na-pyrophosphate soluble Mg and Fe concentrations. The stability of OM(PY) determined by the C-14 measurements of the near-neutral arable topsoils was shown to increase with the specific surface area and the concentration of exchangeable Ca. For the acidic forest topsoils (pH < 5), the stability of OM(PY) was found to increase as the pH, and the concentration of C=O groups and Na-pyrophosphate soluble Mg increase.
Volcanic eruptions are often preceded by seismic activity that can be used to quantify the volcanic activity. In order to allow consistent inference of the volcanic activity state from the observed seismicity patterns, objective and time-invariant classification results achievable by automatic systems should be preferred. Most automatic classification approaches need a large preclassified data set for training the system. However, in case of a volcanic crisis, we are often confronted with a lack of training data due to insufficient prior observations. In the worst case (e. g., volcanic crisis related reconfiguration of stations), there are even no prior observations available. Finally, due to the imminent crisis there might be no time for the time-consuming process of preparing a training data set. For this reason, we have developed a novel seismic-event spotting technique in order to be less dependent on previously acquired data bases and classification schemes. We are using a learning-while-recording approach based on a minimum number of reference waveforms, thus allowing for the build-up of a classification scheme as early as interesting events have been identified. First, short-term wave-field parameters (here, polarization and spectral attributes) are extracted from a continuous seismic data stream. The sequence of multidimensional feature vectors is then used to identify a fixed number of clusters in the feature space. Based on this general description of the overall wave field by a mixture of multivariate Gaussians, we are able to learn particular event classifiers (here, hidden Markov models) from a single waveform example. To show the capabilities of this new approach we apply the algorithm to a data set recorded at Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat. Supported by very high classification rates, we conclude that the suggested approach provides a valuable tool for volcano monitoring systems.
Forecasting seismo-volcanic activity by using the dynamical behavior of volcanic earthquake rates
(2012)
We present a novel approach for short-term forecasting of volcano seismic activity. Volcanic earthquakes can be seen as a response mechanism of the earth crust to stresses induced by magma injection. From this point of view the temporal evolution of seismicity can be represented as a diffusion process which compensates pressure differences. By means of this dynamical approach we are able to estimate the system behavior in the near future which in turn allows us to forecast the evolution of the earthquake rate for the next time span from actual and past observations. For this purpose we model the earthquake rate as a random walk process embedded in a moving and deforming potential function. The center of the potential function is given by a moving average of the random walk's trace. We successfully apply this procedure to estimate the next day seismicity at Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat, over a time period of six years. When comparing the dynamical approach to the well known method of material failure forecast we find much better predictions of the critical stages of volcanic activity using the new approach.
Evaluation of groundwater dynamics and quality in the Najd aquifers located in the Sultanate of Oman
(2012)
The Najd, Oman, is located in one of the most arid environments in the world. The groundwater in this region is occurring in four different aquifers A to D of the Hadhramaut Group consisting mainly of different types of limestone and dolomite. The quality of the groundwater is dominated by the major ions sodium, calcium, magnesium, sulphate, and chloride, but the hydrochemical character is varying among the four aquifers. Mineralization within the separate aquifers increases along the groundwater flow direction from south to north-northeast up to high saline sodium-chloride water in aquifer D in the northeast area of the Najd. Environmental isotope analyses of hydrogen and oxygen were conducted to monitor the groundwater dynamics and to evaluate the recharge conditions of groundwater into the Najd aquifers. Results suggest an earlier recharge into these aquifers as well as ongoing recharge takes place in the region down to present day. Mixing of modern and submodern waters was detected by water isotopes in aquifer D in the mountain chain (Jabal) area and along the northern side of the mountain range. In addition, delta H-2 and delta O-18 variations suggest that aquifers A, B, and C are assumed to be connected by faults and fractures, and interaction between the aquifers may occur. Low tritium concentrations support the mixing assumption in the recharge area. The knowledge about the groundwater development is an important factor for the sustainable use of water resources in the Dhofar region.
Orbitolinids are larger foraminifera widespread in Lower Cretaceous shallow-water carbonates of the Tethyan realm. They are among the most important fossil groups used for Biostratigraphy. Despite this and although the structural features of the group have been described in detail, very little is known about the composition of their agglutinated test and the process by which they selected foreign grains. In this study, the test of Orbitolina d'Orbigny, 1850 (subgenus Mesorbitolina Schroeder, 1962) from Aptian shallow-water carbonate deposits of southern Italy has been studied in detail. We combine petrographic techniques (optical microscope and SEM) with energy-dispersive x-ray spectrometry (EDS), electron probe microanalyzer (EPMA), X-ray diffraction and Raman spectroscopy analyses.
The results show that the test of Mesorbitolina is composed of carbonate and non-carbonate agglutinated grains with the latter distributed across the test with a specific pattern, moving from the marginal to the central zone. In the marginal zone, non-carbonate grains are found only in the epidermis and along the septa which are composed of quartz, with smaller amounts of illite/muscovite and K-feldspar grains. In the central zone of the test, non-carbonate grains are distributed in two ways. Coarse grains of quartz and K-feldspar are abundant and randomly placed in the endoskeleton embedded in a mosaic of minute carbonate grains. Flat grains, mainly of illite/muscovite constitute the external part of the septa. Our observations indicate that Mesorbitolina did select and place agglutinated grains across its test, mainly according to their shape, whereas it did not select particles according to grain size. The distribution of agglutinated particles according to their mineralogical composition shows some contradictory evidence and therefore, at the moment, grain selection in function of mineralogy cannot be completely confirmed or ruled out. Analogies in the test composition of Mesorbitolina specimens from coeval deposits from different areas of southern Italy indicate that the features of their agglutinated test are typical characters of the genus Mesorbitolina. However, it is still unclear what advantage was obtained by the foraminifer by the described test features.
Hydrological response to earthquakes has long been observed, yet the mechanisms responsible still remain unclear and likely vary in space and time. This study explores the base flow response in small upland catchments of the Coastal Range of south-central Chile after the M-W 8.8 Maule earthquake of 27 February 2010. An initial decline in streamflow followed by an increase of up to 400% of the discharge measured immediately before the earthquake occurred, and diurnal streamflow oscillations intensified after the earthquake. Neither response time, nor time to maximum streamflow discharge showed any relationship with catchment topography or size, suggesting non-uniform release of water across the catchments. The fast response, unaffected stream water temperatures and a simple diffusion model point to the sandy saprolite as the source of the excess water. Base flow recession analysis reveals no evidence for substantial enhancement of lateral hydraulic conductivity in the saprolite after the earthquake. Seismic energy density reached similar to 170 J/m(3) for the main shock and similar to 0.9 J/m(3) for the aftershock, exceeding the threshold for liquefaction by undrained consolidation only during the main shock. Although increased hydraulic gradient due to ground acceleration-triggered, undrained consolidation is consistent with empirical magnitude-distance relationships for liquefaction, the lack of independent evidence for liquefaction means that enhanced vertical permeability (probably in combination with co-seismic near-surface dilatancy) cannot be excluded as a potential mechanism. Undrained consolidation may have released additional water from the saturated saprolite into the overlying soil, temporarily reducing water transfer to the creeks but enlarging the cross-section of the saturated zone, which in turn enhanced streamflow after establishment of a new hydraulic equilibrium. The enlarged saturated zone facilitated water uptake by roots and intensified evapotranspiration.
Sediments of Lake Donggi Cona on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau were studied to infer changes in the lacustrine depositional environment, related to climatic and non-climatic changes during the last 19 kyr. The lake today fills a 30x8 km big and 95 m deep tectonic basin, associated with the Kunlun Fault. The study was conducted on a sediment-core transect through the lake basin, in order to gain a complete picture of spatio-temporal environmental change. The recovered sediments are partly finely laminated and are composed of calcareous muds with variable amounts of carbonate micrite, organic matter, detrital silt and clay. On the basis of sedimentological, geochemical, and mineralogical data up to five lithological units (LU) can be distinguished that document distinct stages in the development of the lake system.
The onset of the lowermost LU with lacustrine muds above basal sands indicates that lake level was at least 39 m below the present level and started to rise after 19 ka, possibly in response to regional deglaciation. At this time, the lacustrine environment was characterized by detrital sediment influx and the deposition of siliciclastic sediment. In two sediment cores, upward grain-size coarsening documents a lake-level fall after 13 cal ka BP, possibly associated with the late-glacial Younger Dryas stadial. From 11.5 to 4.3 cal ka BP, grain-size fining in sediment cores from the profundal coring sites and the onset of lacustrine deposition at a litoral core site (2 m water depth) in a recent marginal bay of Donggi Cona document lake-level rise during the early to mid-Holocene to at least modern level. In addition, high biological productivity and pronounced precipitation of carbonate micrites are consistent with warm and moist climate conditions related to an enhanced influence of summer monsoon. At 4.3 cal ka BP the lake system shifted from an aragonite- to a calcite-dominated system, indicating a change towards a fully open hydrological lake system. The younger clay-rich sediments are moreover non-laminated and lack any diagenetic sulphides, pointing to fully ventilated conditions, and the prevailing absence of lake stratification. This turning point in lake history could imply either a threshold response to insolation-forced climate cooling or a response to a non-climatic trigger, such as an erosional event or a tectonic pulse that induced a strong earthquake, which is difficult to decide from our data base.
Deformation experiments on hydrous melt-bearing dunite (olivine+4 vol% orthopyroxene+4 vol% clinopyroxene with less than 2.5 vol% of the melt phase) were conducted at pressures of 1.3-5.7 GPa and temperatures of 1270-1490 K in order to explore the effect of intergranular fluids on the plastic flow of olivine in Earth's upper mantle. The strain rate was proportional to steady-state creep strength to the 2.1 power, and the creep strength markedly increased with increase in grain size. Developments of the crystallographic preferred orientation of olivine and flattening of olivine grains were hardly observed even after 33-55% shortening of the samples. These observations show that grain boundary sliding (GBS) dominated the deformation of olivine (i.e., superplasticity). The creep strength of hydrous melt-bearing dunite was 2-5 times lower than that of melt-free dunite. The dependence of creep rate on melt fraction is known to be expressed empirically as (epsilon) over dot(phi) = (epsilon) over dot(0) exp(alpha phi), where alpha is a constant and phi is the melt fraction. The experimentally obtained value of alpha was in the range of 150-230, corresponding to 5-7 times the reported values for the olivine-basalt system at 0.3 GPa (i.e., creep strength of dunite was efficiently reduced by the hydrous melt). Superplasticity is the dominant creep mechanism of olivine in fluid-bearing fine-grained peridotites under low-temperature and high-stress conditions (i.e., peridotite shear zones in the upper mantle). Superplasticity induced by geological fluids would play an important role in the shear localization (and thus initiation of subduction) in the upper mantle.
The assessment of uncertainty is a major challenge in geomorphometry. Methods to quantify uncertainty in digital elevation models (DEM) are needed to assess and report derivatives such as drainage basins. While Monte-Carlo (MC) techniques have been developed and employed to assess the variability of second-order derivatives of DEMs, their application requires explicit error modeling and numerous simulations to reliably calculate error bounds. Here, we develop an analytical model to quantify and visualize uncertainty in drainage basin delineation in DEMs. The model is based on the assumption that multiple flow directions (MFD) represent a discrete probability distribution of non-diverging flow networks. The Shannon Index quantifies the uncertainty of each cell to drain into a specific drainage basin outlet. In addition, error bounds for drainage areas can be derived. An application of the model shows that it identifies areas in a DEM where drainage basin delineation is highly uncertain owing to flow dispersion on convex landforms such as alluvial fans. The model allows for a quantitative assessment of the magnitudes of expected drainage area variability and delivers constraints for observed volatile hydrological behavior in a palaeoenvironmental record of lake level change. Since the model cannot account for all uncertainties in drainage basin delineation we conclude that a joint application with MC techniques is promising for an efficient and comprehensive error assessment in the future.
The Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE) project, which began in June 2009, aims at establishing new standards for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the Euro-Mediterranean region. In this context, a logic tree for ground-motion prediction in Europe has been constructed. Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and weights have been determined so that the logic tree captures epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion prediction for six different tectonic regimes in Europe. Here we present the strategy that we adopted to build such a logic tree. This strategy has the particularity of combining two complementary and independent approaches: expert judgment and data testing. A set of six experts was asked to weight pre-selected GMPEs while the ability of these GMPEs to predict available data was evaluated with the method of Scherbaum et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 99:3234-3247, 2009). Results of both approaches were taken into account to commonly select the smallest set of GMPEs to capture the uncertainty in ground-motion prediction in Europe. For stable continental regions, two models, both from eastern North America, have been selected for shields, and three GMPEs from active shallow crustal regions have been added for continental crust. For subduction zones, four models, all non-European, have been chosen. Finally, for active shallow crustal regions, we selected four models, each of them from a different host region but only two of them were kept for long periods. In most cases, a common agreement has been also reached for the weights. In case of divergence, a sensitivity analysis of the weights on the seismic hazard has been conducted, showing that once the GMPEs have been selected, the associated set of weights has a smaller influence on the hazard.
Exsolution of garnet and clinopyroxene from High-Al Pyroxenes in Xugou Peridotite, Eastern China
(2012)
Serpentinized massif peridotite in the Xugou, Su-Lu ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) metamorphic belt, eastern China, preserves texturally old (porphyroclastic) ortho- and clinopyroxene with up to two generations of lamellae of garnet, clinopyroxene and Mg-chromite. Their crystallographic orientation with respect to the host pyroxene is consistent with an origin by solid-state exsolution. Comparison of integrated mineral chemistry with simplified and natural chemical datasets suggests that both aluminous precursor pyroxenes were in equilibrium at a minimum pressure of similar to 4 GPa and within a temperature range of about 1300-1500 degrees C. Steep isopleths of Ca in orthopyroxene imply that exsolution occurred during cooling. Al diffusion modelling suggests growth of widely spaced lamellae in orthopyroxene down to about 900 degrees C. Integrated Al contents between wide lamellae record a minimum of 4 GPa pressure during cooling. Compositionally uniform exsolved minerals were formed at 4 center dot 3 +/- 0 center dot 3 GPa and 730 +/- 30 degrees C and reflect a cratonic geotherm with about 33 mW m(-2) surface heat flow. The peridotite matrix mineral assemblage of olivine + orthopyroxene +/- garnet +/- Mg-chromite +/- clinopyroxene +/- phlogopite records strain-induced recrystallization that partially to completely replaced precursor porphyroclasts. The recrystallized minerals lack lamellar exsolution. Recrystallized orthopyroxene, with Al2O3 at 0 center dot 13 wt %, indicates conditions of 5 center dot 5 +/- 0 center dot 3 GPa and 760 +/- 30 degrees C, which are higher-grade metamorphic conditions than those preserved in the chemically equilibrated exsolution microstructures. Both estimates overlap with the range reported for the Early Mesozoic UHP metamorphism in the region (4 center dot 0-6 center dot 7 GPa and 760-970 degrees C). Major element melt models applied to previously published Xugou peridotite data suggest high degrees of melt extraction (30-35 %) in the garnet peridotite stability field (3-4 center dot 5 GPa) until garnet and clinopyroxene exhaustion. Coincidence in pressure and in the order of temperature of equilibration of precursor pyroxenes and peridotite melting implies that peridotite formation occurred at similar to 135 km depth in the subcontinental lithospheric mantle (SCLM) beneath the Archaean North China Craton. Subsequent refertilization, mineral exsolution and chemical re-equilibration during long-term cooling in the SCLM occurred prior to deformation and incorporation of the mantle fragment into the continental crust during UHP metamorphism at a minimum depth of 170 km. Because the Xugou precursor pyroxenes and peridotite formed at depths greater than the regional SCLM (c. 90 km), we infer that the orogenic peridotite massif formed part of the former hanging wall of the Archaean SCLM, which delaminated after the Late Mesozoic.
Empirical species distribution models (SDMs) constitute often the tool of choice for the assessment of rapid climate change effects on species vulnerability. Conclusions regarding extinction risks might be misleading, however, because SDMs do not explicitly incorporate dispersal or other demographic processes. Here, we supplement SDMs with a dynamic population model 1) to predict climate-induced range dynamics for black grouse in Switzerland, 2) to compare direct and indirect measures of extinction risks, and 3) to quantify uncertainty in predictions as well as the sources of that uncertainty. To this end, we linked models of habitat suitability to a spatially explicit, individual-based model. In an extensive sensitivity analysis, we quantified uncertainty in various model outputs introduced by different SDM algorithms, by different climate scenarios and by demographic model parameters. Potentially suitable habitats were predicted to shift uphill and eastwards. By the end of the 21st century, abrupt habitat losses were predicted in the western Prealps for some climate scenarios. In contrast, population size and occupied area were primarily controlled by currently negative population growth and gradually declined from the beginning of the century across all climate scenarios and SDM algorithms. However, predictions of population dynamic features were highly variable across simulations. Results indicate that inferring extinction probabilities simply from the quantity of suitable habitat may underestimate extinction risks because this may ignore important interactions between life history traits and available habitat. Also, in dynamic range predictions uncertainty in SDM algorithms and climate scenarios can become secondary to uncertainty in dynamic model components. Our study emphasises the need for principal evaluation tools like sensitivity analysis in order to assess uncertainty and robustness in dynamic range predictions. A more direct benefit of such robustness analysis is an improved mechanistic understanding of dynamic species responses to climate change.
The Garzn Complex of the Garzn Massif in SW Colombia is composed of the Vergel Granulite Unit (VG) and the Las Margaritas Migmatite Unit (LMM). Previous studies reveal peak temperature conditions for the VG of about 740 A degrees C. The present study considers the remarkable exsolution phenomena in feldspars and pyroxenes and titanium-in-quartz thermometry. Recalculated ternary feldspar compositions indicate temperatures around 900-1,000 A degrees C just at or above the ultra-high temperature-metamorphism (UHTM) boundary of granulites. The calculated temperatures range of exsolved ortho- and clinopyroxenes also supports the existence of an UHTM event. In addition, titanium-in-quartz thermometry points towards ultra-high temperatures. It is the first known UHTM crustal segment in the northern part of South America. Although a mean geothermal gradient of ca 38 A degrees C km(-1) could imply additional heat supply in the lower crust controlling this extreme of peak metamorphism, an alternative model is suggested. The formation of the Vergel Granulite Unit is supposed to be formed in a continental back-arc environment with a thinned and weakened crust behind a magmatic arc (Guapotn-Mancagua Gneiss) followed by collision. In contrast, rocks of the adjacent Las Margaritas Migmatite Unit display "normal" granulite facies temperatures and are formed in a colder lower crust outside the arc, preserved by the Guapotn-Mancagu Gneiss. Back-arc formation was followed by inversion and thickening of the basin. The three units that form the modern-day Garzn Massif, were juxtaposed upon each other during collision (at ca. 1,000 Ma) and exhumation. The collision leading to the deformation of the studied area is part of the Grenville orogeny leading to the amalgamation of Rodinia.
The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum represents one of the most rapid and extreme warming events in the Cenozoic. Shallow-water stratigraphic sections from the Adriatic carbonate platform offer a rare opportunity to learn about the nature of Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum and the effects on shallow-water ecosystems. We use carbon and oxygen isotope stratigraphy, in conjunction with detailed larger benthic foraminiferal biostratigraphy, to establish a high-resolution paleoclimatic record for the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum. A prominent negative excursion in delta C-13 curves of bulk-rock (similar to 1 parts per thousand-3 parts per thousand), matrix (similar to 4 parts per thousand), and foraminifera (similar to 6 parts per thousand) is interpreted as the carbon isotope excursion during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum. The strongly C-13-depleted delta(1)d(3)C record of our shallow-marine carbonates compared to open-marine records could result from organic matter oxidation, suggesting intensified weathering, runoff, and organic matter flux.
The Ilerdian larger benthie foraminiferal turnover is documented in detail based on high-resolution correlation with the carbon isotopic excursion. The turnover is described as a two-step process, with the first step (early Ilerdian) marked by a rapid diversification of small alveolinids and nummulitids with weak adult dimorphism, possibly as adaptations to fluctuating Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum nutrient levels, and a second step (middle Ilerdian) characterized by a further specific diversification, increase of shell size, and well-developed adult dimorphism. Within an evolutionary scheme controlled by long-term biological processes, we argue that high seawater temperatures could have stimulated the early Ilerdian rapid specific diversification. Together, these data help elucidate the effects of global warming and associated feedbacks in shallow-water ecosystems, and by inference, could serve as an assessment analog for future changes.
Partitioning cluster algorithms have proven to be powerful tools for data-driven integration of large geoscientific databases. We used fuzzy Gustafson-Kessel cluster analysis to integrate Landsat imagery,. airborne radiometric, and regional geochemical data to aid in the interpretation of a multimethod database. The survey area extends over 3700 km(2) and is located in the Northern Cape Province, South Africa. We carefully selected five variables for cluster analysis to avoid the clustering results being dominated by spatially high-correlated data sets that were present in our database. Unlike other, more popular cluster algorithms, such as k-means or fuzzy c-means, the Gustafson-Kessel algorithm requires no preclustering data processing, such as scaling or adjustment of histographic data distributions. The outcome of cluster analysis was a classified map that delineates prominent near-to-surface structures. To add value to the classified map, we compared the detected structures to mapped geology and additional geophysical ground-truthing data. We were able to associate the structures detected by cluster analysis to geophysical and geological information thus obtaining a pseudolithology map. The latter outlined an area with increased mineral potential where manganese mineralization, i.e., psilomelane, had been located.
Declining groundwater levels in some forested regions in Northeast Germany indicate a reduction in groundwater recharge. Various interlinked aspects, such as changes in climate conditions and changes in forest structure, have been considered as the main factors affecting the regional level of groundwater recharge.
For this study, the water balance model WaSiM-ETH was used to calculate groundwater recharge in a 104 km(2) area between 1958 and 2007. Climate impact analysis was driven by observed data from neighbouring meteorological stations. Changes in forest stands were reconstructed from the current status and literature studies.
The model-based analysis showed that the average groundwater recharge under forest areas decreased from 1958 to 2007, with a trend of 2.3 mm/yr(2). The most important effect was changing climatic boundary conditions, which made up 53% of the decrease. Declining precipitation is identified as the main factor. Changes in tree age distribution caused 18% of the decrease, and the change of ground vegetation under pines (Pinus sylvestris) accounts for 29%.
In respect of the complexity and the interconnectivity of the processes of groundwater recharge, the necessity of using process-oriented distributed models such as WaSiM-ETH is discussed.
We conclude that changes in forest stands affecting groundwater recharge could play a significant role in the water balance, especially in regions with a priori low total runoff, this has up to now often remained unquantified.
Determination of the source rocks for the diatexites from the Edough Massif, Annaba, NE Algeria
(2012)
The crystalline Edough Massif is located in the oriental part of the Algerian coastline. It consists of two tectonically superposed units of gneisses, augen-gneisses and migmatitic gneisses in the lower unit and micaschists in the upper unit. The crystalline rocks underwent a low to moderate degree of metamorphism; the gneisses suffered partial melting. They display migmatitic features such as nebulitic structures with contorted leucosome layers and K-feldspar porphyroblasts and thus can be classified as diatexites. The mineralogical composition of these rocks is very homogenous and consists of K-feldspar, micas and quartz. The feldspar-rich, arkosic nature of the outcrop implies a granitic source rock. High K2O/Na2O ratios and high A/CNK > 1.1 indicate an S-type granite source and a peraluminous composition of the protolith respectively. Chondrite normalized REE distribution patterns of the Edough diatexites show gently inclined patterns with a minor negative Eu anomaly (Eu/Eu* = 0.36-0.49), which points to a very slightly differentiated granitic source. The REE pattern and trace element data of the diatexites are similar to those of average Proterozoic upper continental crust, which suggests that they are derived mainly from upper continental crust and were deposited in continental margins.
Triassic Latemar cycle tops - Subaerial exposure of platform carbonates under tropical arid climate
(2012)
The Triassic Latemar platform in the Dolomites, Italy, is the site of several ongoing controversies. Perhaps the most interesting debate focuses on apparent cyclic deposition within the Latemar platform, whose nature and duration are still open to debate. Further disagreement concerns the lack of meteoric diagenesis-related isotope shifts at cycle tops that bear circumstantial petrographic evidence for subaerial emergence. Here, an evaluation of the nature of Latemar cycle tops is presented combining evidence from previous work and new field, petrographic and geochemical data. Cycle tops are ranked according to increasing exposure duration and spatial extent: type I surfaces lacking unequivocal evidence of prolonged supratidal conditions; type II dolomite caps formed in warm, evaporitic, intertidal lagoonal waters followed by exposure of perhaps intermediate duration; type III clastic-rich, red calcareous horizons with some showing platform-wide extent, representing prolonged supratidal conditions, and type IV discontinuities in tepee belts, genetically related to type II and III surfaces, but likely representing shorter-lived exposure stages. Petrographic and geochemical criteria indicate that most diagenesis occurred in the shallow marine and burial domain whilst an extensive meteoric overprint of cycle tops is lacking. This is underlined by the scarcity of meteoric diagenetic fabrics such as gravitational cements that, where present, are here interpreted as marine-vadose in origin. The scarcity of carbon and oxygen isotope signatures commonly assigned to subaerial exposure stages is best explained in the context of mid-Triassic climate. The low latitude, tropical but arid setting of the Latemar, situated in the western extension of the Tethys ocean, its isolation from nearby continental areas and overall short-term emergence episodes are in agreement with a limited degree of meteoric alteration of most cycle tops. High amounts of aeolian clastic material beneath some cycle tops, along with high Fe and Mn elemental abundances argue for intermittent subaerial conditions. This study proposes an enhancement of the classical Allan and Matthews (1982) isotope model for subaerial exposure under strongly arid climates. As the subaerial exposure nature of Latemar cycle tops, and therefore eustasy as the cause for cyclicity, have been previously challenged due to the lack of meteoric-induced isotopic signatures, the outcome of this study is of significance for the ongoing Latemar stratigraphic controversy.
Away from active plate boundaries the relationships between spatiotemporal variations in density and geothermal gradient are important for understanding the evolution of topography in continental interiors. In this context the classic concept of the continental lithosphere as comprising three static layers of different densities (upper crust, lower crust, and upper mantle) is not adequate to assess long-term changes in topography and relief in regions associated with pronounced thermal anomalies in the mantle. We have therefore developed a one-dimensional model, which is based on thermodynamic equilibrium assemblage computations and deliberately excludes the effects of melting processes like intrusion or extrusions. Our model calculates the "metamorphic density" of rocks as a function of pressure, temperature, and chemical composition. It not only provides a useful tool for quantifying the influence of petrologic characteristics on density, but also allows the modeled "metamorphic" density to be adjusted to variable geothermal gradients and applied to different geodynamic environments. We have used this model to simulate a scenario in which the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary is subjected to continuous heating over a long period of time (130 Ma), and demonstrate how an anorogenic plateau with an elevation of 1400 m can be formed solely as a result of heat transfer within the continental lithosphere. Our results show that, beside dynamic topography (of asthenospheric origin), density changes within the lithosphere have an important impact on the evolution of anorogenic plateaus.
Landslides are a hazard for humans and artificial structures. From an ecological point of view, they represent an important ecosystem disturbance, especially in tropical montane forests. Here, shallow translational landslides are a frequent natural phenomenon and one local determinant of high levels of biodiversity. In this paper, we apply weighted ensembles of advanced phenomenological models from statistics and machine learning to analyze the driving factors of natural landslides in a tropical montane forest in South Ecuador. We exclusively interpret terrain attributes, derived from a digital elevation model, as proxies to several driving factors of landslides and use them as predictors in our models which are trained on a set of five historical landslide inventories. We check the model generality by transferring them in time and use three common performance criteria (i.e. AUC, explained deviance and slope of model calibration curve) to, on the one hand, compare several state-of-the-art model approaches and on the other hand, to create weighted model ensembles. Our results suggest that it is important to consider more than one single performance criterion.
Approaching our main question, we compare responses of weighted model ensembles that were trained on distinct functional units of landslides (i.e. initiation, transport and deposition zones). This way, we are able to show that it is quite possible to deduce driving factors of landslides, if the consistency between the training data and the processes is maintained. Opening the 'black box' of statistical models by interpreting univariate model response curves and relative importance of single predictors regarding their plausibility, we provide a means to verify this consistency.
With the exception of classification tree analysis, all techniques performed comparably well in our case study while being outperformed by weighted model ensembles. Univariate response curves of models trained on distinct functional units of landslides exposed different shapes following our expectations. Our results indicate the occurrence of landslides to be mainly controlled by factors related to the general position along a slope (i.e. ridge, open slope or valley) while landslide initiation seems to be favored by small scale convexities on otherwise plain open slopes.
The aim of this experimental study was to evaluate and compare the geochemical impact of pure and impure CO2 on rock forming minerals of possible CO2 storage reservoirs. This geochemical approach takes into account the incomplete purification of industrial captured CO2 and the related effects during injection, and provides relevant data for long-term storage simulations of this specific greenhouse gas. Batch experiments were conducted to investigate the interactions of supercritical CO2, brine and rock-forming mineral concentrates (albite, microcline, kaolinite, biotite, muscovite, calcite, dolomite and anhydrite) using a newly developed experimental setup. After up to 42 day (1000 h) experiments using pure and impure supercritical CO2 the dissolution and solution characteristics were examined by XRD, XRF, SEM and EDS for the solid, and ICP-MS and IC for the fluid reactants, respectively. Experiments with mixtures of supercritical CO2 (99.5 vol.%) and SO2 or NO2 impurities (0.5 vol.%) suggest the formation of H2SO4 and HNO3, reflected in pH values between 1 and 4 for experiments with silicates and anhydrite and between 5 and 6 for experiments with carbonates. These acids should be responsible for the general larger amount of cations dissolved from the mineral phases compared to experiments using pure CO2. For pure CO2 a pH of around 4 was obtained using silicates and anhydrite, and 7-8 for carbonates. Dissolution of carbonates was observed after both pure and impure CO2 experiments. Anhydrite was corroded by approximately 50 wt.% and gypsum precipitated during experiments with supercritical CO2 + NO2. Silicates do not exhibit visible alterations during all experiments but released an increasing amount of cations in the reaction fluid during experiments with impure CO2. Nonetheless, precipitated secondary carbonates could not be identified.
We studied testate amoebae and possible correlated abiotic factors in soils of 31 mature forest ecosystems using an easily applicable and spatially explicit method. Simple counting on soil thin-sections with a light microscope resulted in amoeba densities comparable to previously reported values, i.e. 0.1 x 10(8) to 11.5 x 10(8) individuals m(-2) (upper 3 cm of soil). Soil moisture and soil acidity seem to be correlated with amoeba densities. At sites of moderate soil moisture regimes (SMR 2-7) we found higher densities of testate amoebae at pH < 4.5. At wetter sites (SMR >= 8) higher individual densities were recorded also at less acidic sites. The in situ description of amoebae, based on the analysis of a complete soil thin-section, showed a relatively uniform spatial micro-distribution throughout the organic and mineral soil horizons (no testate amoeba clusters). We discuss the pros and cons of the soil thin-section method and suggest it as an additional tool to improve knowledge of the spatial micro-distribution of testate amoebae.
Questions remain about the exact ultrasonic energy level that is required to effectively disperse soil aggregates and to what extent this is accompanied by physical damage to individual soil particles. We found maximum aggregate dispersion at energy levels of 1500 J?cm3 and no evidence for the disintegration of particles < 20 mu m even at that energy level. Our findings suggest that sonication at energies much greater than those applied conventionally can disperse aggregates of high mechanical stability.
The rhizosphere has a controlling role in the flow of water and nutrients from soil to plant roots; however, its hydraulic properties are not well understood. As roots grow, they change the pore size distribution of the surrounding soil. Roots release polymeric substances such as mucilage into their rhizosphere. Microorganisms living in the rhizosphere feed on these organic materials and release other polymeric substances into the rhizosphere. The presence of these organic materials might affect the water retention properties and the hydraulic conductivity of the rhizosphere soil during drying and rewetting. We used neutron radiography to monitor the dynamics of water distribution in the rhizosphere of lupin (Lupinus albus L.) plants during a period of drying and rewetting. The rhizosphere was shown to have a higher water content than the bulk soil during the drying period but a lower one during the subsequent rewetting. We evaluated the wettability of the bulk soil and the rhizosphere soil by measuring the contact angle of water in the soil. We found significantly higher contact angles for the rhizosphere soil than the bulk soil after drying, which indicates slight water repellency in the rhizosphere. This explains the lower soil water content in the rhizosphere than the bulk soil after rewetting. Our results suggest that the water holding capacity of the rhizosphere is dynamic and might shift toward higher or lower values than those of the surrounding bulk soil, not affected by roots, depending on the history of drying and rewetting cycles.
Mapping hydrological parameter distributions in high resolution is essential to understand and simulate groundwater flow and contaminant transport. Of particular interest is surface-based ground-penetrating radar (GPR) reflection imaging in electrically resistive sediments because of the expected close link between the subsurface water content and the dielectric permittivity, which controls GPR wave velocity and reflectivity. Conventional tools like common midpoint (CMP) velocity analysis provide physical parameter models of limited resolution only. We present a novel reflection amplitude inversion workflow for surface-based GPR data capable of resolving the subsurface dielectric permittivity and related water content distribution with markedly improved resolution. Our scheme is an adaptation of a seismic reflection impedance inversion scheme to surface-based GPR data. Key is relative-amplitude-preserving data preconditioning including GPR deconvolution, which results in traces with the source-wavelet distortions and propagation effects largely removed. The subsequent inversion for the underlying dielectric permittivity and water content structure is constrained by in situ dielectric permittivity data obtained by direct-push logging. After demonstrating the potential of our novel scheme on a realistic synthetic data set, we apply it to two 2-D 100 MHz GPR profiles acquired over a shallow sedimentary aquifer resulting in water content images of the shallow (3-7 m depth) saturated zone having decimeter resolution.
Detailed knowledge on the spatial distribution of soils is crucial for environmental monitoring, management, and modeling. However soil maps with a finite number of discrete soil map units are often the only available information about soils. Depending on the map scale or the detailing of the map legend this information could be too imprecise. We present a method for the spatial disaggregation of map units, namely the refinement of complex soil map units in which two or more soil types are aggregated. Our aim is to draw new boundaries inside the map polygons to represent a single soil type and no longer a mixture of several soil types. The basic idea for our method is the functional relationship between soil types and topographic position as formulated in the concept of the catena. We use a comprehensive soil profile database and topographic attributes derived from a 10 m digital elevation model as input data for the classification of soil types with random forest models. We grouped all complex map units which have the same combination of soil types. Each group of map units is modeled separately. For prediction of the soil types we stratified the soil map into these groups and apply a specific random forest model only to the associated map units. In order to get reliable results we define a threshold for the predicted probabilities at 0.7 to assign a specific soil type. In areas where the probability is below 0.7 for every possible soil type we assign a new class "indifferent" because the model only makes unspecific classification there. Our results show a significant spatial refinement of the original soil polygons. Validation of our predictions was estimated on 1812 independent soil profiles which were collected subsequent to prediction in the field. Field validation gave an overall accuracy of 70%. Map units, in which shallow soils were grouped together with deep soils could be separated best. Also histosols could be predicted successful. Highest error rate were found in map units, in which Gleysoils were grouped together with deep soils or Anthrosols. To check for validity of our results we open the black box random forest model by calculating the variable importance for each predictor variable and plotting response surfaces. We found good confirmations of our hypotheses, that topography has a significant influence on the spatial arrangement of soil types and that these relationships can be used for disaggregation.
We report on a new series of isoreticular frameworks based on zinc and 2-substituted imidazolate-4-amide-5-imidate (IFP-14, IFP=imidazolate framework Potsdam) that form one-dimensional, microporous hexagonal channels. Varying R in the 2-substitued linker (R=Me (IFP-1), Cl (IFP-2), Br (IFP-3), Et (IFP-4)) allowed the channel diameter (4.01.7 angstrom), the polarisability and functionality of the channel walls to be tuned. Frameworks IFP-2, IFP-3 and IFP-4 are isostructural to previously reported IFP-1. The structures of IFP-2 and IFP-3 were solved by X-ray crystallographic analyses. The structure of IFP-4 was determined by a combination of PXRD and structure modelling and was confirmed by IR spectroscopy and 1H MAS and 13C CP-MAS NMR spectroscopy. All IFPs showed high thermal stability (345400?degrees C); IFP-1 and IFP-4 were stable in boiling water for 7 d. A detailed porosity analysis was performed on the basis of adsorption measurements by using various gases. The potential of the materials to undergo specific interactions with CO2 was investigated by measuring the isosteric heats of adsorption. The capacity to adsorb CH4 (at 298 K), CO2 (at 298 K) and H2 (at 77 K) at high pressure were also investigated. In situ IR spectroscopy showed that CO2 is physisorbed on IFP-14 under dry conditions and that both CO2 and H2O are physisorbed on IFP-1 under moist conditions.
The hummocky ground moraine soil landscape forms a spatial continuum of more or less eroded and depositional soils developed from glacial till under intensive agricultural cultivation. Measurements of soil hydraulic properties in the laboratory on soil cores are mostly limited to some characteristic horizons. However, these horizons can vary in thickness or structural and pedological development depending on relief position. This paper compares soil hydraulic properties of the same soil horizons sampled at different relief positions in a single field representing various degrees of soil erosion/deposition. Water retention curves were determined from undisturbed core samples using sand and kaolin beds with hanging water column and pressure chambers, and the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity using the double-membrane apparatus. Data were fitted to the van Genuchten-Mualem function (VGM) using the nonlinear curve fitting program RETC. The desorption water retention curves for the soil horizons were different and depended on the soil structural development that could be related with the intensity of erosion history at each landscape position. The greatest differences in hydraulic functions were found for the E, Bt, and C horizons. The fitted soil water retention curves reflected these differences mainly in the values of the VGM curve parameters n and theta(s). The landscape features that have the strongest differentiating effect are related to erosion and distance towards the water table. The results can help improving pedotransfer approaches for the estimation of spatially distributed hydraulic parameters for modelling the water movement in hummocky soil landscapes as basis for establishing landscape scale water and element balances.
Isabel Lake is a hypersaline crater-lake on Isabel Island, Mexico, situated in the eastern tropical Pacific, an area highly sensitive to hydrological changes. Today, annual rainfall mostly occurs during the wet season, from June to October, when the northern edge of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) extends over the island. In order to evaluate the potential of sedimentary lipid biomarker signatures as a proxy of past hydro-climatic variability we have performed a calibration analysis comparing changes in biomarker distribution in the upper 16 cm of the sediment core with a regional instrumental data set. Annual laminations present in the sediment sequence allow for precise chronological control (1942-2006), More than 80 different lipid compounds were identified in the sediment and could be assigned to three major groups of source organisms: (1) algal populations; (2) a mixed community of ciliates, bacteria and cyanobacteria; and (3) photosynthetic sulfur bacteria. We found that the observed changes in the. relative contribution of the different lipid biomarkers to the sediment record were determined by the regional rainfall variability over the last 65 years. The planktonic community of Isabel Lake was highly sensitive to salinity fluctuations related to rainfall variability; seasonal precipitation results in freshwater input into the lake, driving an annual algal bloom and a relative decrease in the abundance of the more halotolerant populations of (cyano) bacteria and ciliates. Consequently, the concentration ratio between the two most abundant biomarkers in the Isabel Lake sediments, n-alkyl diols and tetrahymanol (which we define as the DiTe index), representing algal and ciliate planktonic populations, respectively, was significantly correlated with the seasonal rainfall anomaly (r = 0.68, p < 0.01). We propose that the DiTe index is a proxy of changes in the aquatic ecosystem of Isabel Lake and, by extension, regional hydrological changes in a sensitive climatic area of the eastern tropical Pacific.
The expansion of soybean cultivation into the Amazon in Brazil has potential hydrological effects at local to regional scales. To determine the impacts of soybean agriculture on hydrology, a comparison of net precipitation (throughfall, stemflow) in undisturbed tropical forest and soybean fields on the southern edge of the Amazon Basin in the state of Mato Grosso is needed. This study measured throughfall with troughs and stemflow with collar collectors during two rainy seasons. The results showed that in forest 91.6% of rainfall was collected as throughfall and 0.3% as stemflow, while in soybean fields with two-month old plants, 46.2% of rainfall was collected as throughfall and 9.0% as stemflow. Hence, interception of precipitation in soybean fields was far greater than in intact forests. Differences in throughfall, stemflow and net precipitation were found to be mainly associated with differences in plant structure and stem density in transitional forest and soybean cropland. Because rainfall interception in soybean fields is higher than previously believed and because both the area of cropland and the frequency of crop cycles (double cropping) are increasing rapidly, interception needs to be reconsidered in regional water balance models when consequences of land cover changes are analyzed in the Amazon soybean frontier region. Based on the continued expansion of soybean fields across the landscape and the finding that net precipitation is lower in soy agriculture, a reduction in water availability in the long term can be assumed.
Thermokarst lakes are assumed to develop cyclically, driven by processes that are triggered by climate and maintained by internal feedbacks that may trigger lake drainage. However, the duration of these cycles remains uncertain, as well as whether or not they affect the stabilization of lake ecosystems in permafrost regions over millennial time scales. Our research has combined investigations into modern lake-to-lake variability with a study of the long-term development of individual lakes. We have investigated the physico-chemical and diatom compositions of a set of 101 lakes with a variety of different origins in central Yakutia (Eastern Siberia), including thermokarst lakes, fluvial-erosion thermokarst lakes, fluvial-erosion lakes, and dune lakes. We found a significant relationship between lake genesis and the present-day variability in environmental and diatom characteristics, as revealed by multi-response permutation procedures, indicator species analyses, and redundancy analyses. Environmental parameters also exhibit a significant correlation with variations in the diatom data, for which they may have been to a substantial extent responsible. Mg and SO4 concentrations, together with pH and water depth, were identified as the most important parameters, influencing the variations in the diatom data almost as much as the entire environmental parameter set. We were therefore able to establish a robust Mg-diatom transfer function, which was then applied to three Holocene lake records. From these reconstructions, together with a general interpretation of the diatom record (including, e.g., the ratio between benthic/epiphytic and planktonic taxa), we have been able to infer that all three of these lakes show (1) a continuous record with no desiccation events, (2) high lake water-levels during the early Holocene, (3) centennial to millennial scale variability, and (4) high levels of variability during the early Holocene but rather stable conditions during the late Holocene (a feature that is also known from other sites around the world). We therefore concluded that the development of these three lakes was mainly driven directly by the climate, rather than by thaw lake cycling.
Temporally changing drivers for late-Holocene vegetation changes on the northern Tibetan Plateau
(2012)
Fossil pollen records have been widely used as indicators of past changes in vegetation and variations in climate. The driving mechanisms behind these vegetation changes have, however, remained unclear. In order to evaluate vegetation changes that have occurred in the northern part of the Tibetan Plateau and the possible drivers behind these changes, we have applied a moving-window Redundancy Analysis (RDA) to high resolution (10-15 years) pollen and sedimentary data from Lake Kusai covering the last 3770 years. Our analyses reveal frequent fluctuations in the relative abundances of alpine steppe and alpine desert components. The sedimentary proxies (including total organic carbon content, total inorganic carbon content, and "end-member" indices from grain-size analyses) that explain statistically some of the changes in the pollen assemblage vary significantly with time, most probably reflecting multiple underlying driving processes. Climate appears to have had an important influence on vegetation changes when conditions were relatively wet and stable. However, a gradual decrease in vegetation cover was identified after 1500 cal a BP, after which the vegetation appears to have been affected more by extreme events such as dust-storms or fluvial erosion than by general climatic trends. Furthermore, pollen spectra over the last 600 years are shown by Procrustes analysis to be statistically different from those recovered from older samples, which we attribute to increased human impact that resulted in unprecedented changes to the vegetation composition. Overall, changes in vegetation and climate on the northern part of the Tibetan Plateau appear to have roughly followed the evolution of the Asian Summer Monsoon. After taking into account the highly significant millennial (1512 years) periodicity revealed by time-series analysis, the regional vegetation and climate changes also show variations that appear to match variations in the mid-latitude westerlies.
We present a new tomographic model of the mantle in the area of the 2010 M8.8 Maule earthquake and surrounding regions. Increased ray coverage provided by the aftershock data allows us to image the detailed subducting slab structure in the mantle, from the region of flat slab subduction north of the Maule rupture to the area of overlapping rupture between the 1960 M9.5 and the 2010 M8.8 events to the south. We have combined teleseismic primary and depth phase arrivals with available local arrivals to better constrain the teleseismic earthquake locations in the region, which we use to conduct nested regionalglobal tomography. The new model reveals the detailed structure of the flat slab and its transition to a more moderately dipping slab in the Maule region. South of the Maule region, a steeply dipping relic slab is imaged from similar to 200 to 1000 km depth that is distinct from the moderately dipping slab above it and from the more northerly slab at similar depths. We interpret the images as revealing both horizontal and vertical tearing of the slab at similar to 38 degrees S to explain the imaged pattern of slab anomalies in the southern portion of the model. In contrast, the transition from a horizontal to moderately subducting slab in the northern portion of the model is imaged as a continuous slab bend. We speculate that the tearing was most likely facilitated by a fracture zone in the downgoing plate or alternatively by a continental scale terrane boundary in the overriding plate.
Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPE) are essential in probabilistic seismic hazard studies for estimating the ground motions generated by the seismic sources. In low-seismicity regions, only weak motions are available during the lifetime of accelerometric networks, and the equations selected for the probabilistic studies are usually models established from foreign data. Although most GMPEs have been developed for magnitudes 5 and above, the minimum magnitude often used in probabilistic studies in low-seismicity regions is smaller. Disaggregations have shown that, at return periods of engineering interest, magnitudes less than 5 may be contributing to the hazard. This paper presents the testing of several GMPEs selected in current international and national probabilistic projects against weak motions recorded in France (191 recordings with source-site distances up to 300 km, 3:8 <= M-w <= 4:5). The method is based on the log-likelihood value proposed by Scherbaum et al. (2009). The best-fitting models (approximately 2:5 <= LLH <= 3:5) over the whole frequency range are the Cauzzi and Faccioli (2008), Akkar and Bommer (2010), and Abrahamson and Silva (2008) models. No significant regional variation of ground motions is highlighted, and the magnitude scaling could be the predominant factor in the control of ground-motion amplitudes. Furthermore, we take advantage of a rich Japanese dataset to run tests on randomly selected low-magnitude subsets, and confirm that a dataset of similar to 190 observations, the same size as the French dataset, is large enough to obtain stable LLH estimates. Additionally we perform the tests against larger magnitudes (5-7) from the Japanese dataset. The ranking of models is partially modified, indicating a magnitude scaling effect for some of the models, and showing that extrapolating testing results obtained from low-magnitude ranges to higher magnitude ranges is not straightforward.
East African paleoenvironments are highly variable, marked by extreme fluctuations in moisture availability, which has far-reaching implications for the origin, evolution and dispersal of Homo sapiens in and beyond the region. This paper presents results from a pilot core from the Chew Bahir basin in southern Ethiopia that records the climatic history of the past 45 ka, with emphasis on the African Humid Period (AHP, similar to 15-5 ka calBP). Geochemical, physical and biological indicators show that Chew Bahir responded to climatic fluctuations on millennial to centennial timescales, and to the precessional cycle, since the Last Glacial Maximum. Potassium content of the sediment appears to be a reliable proxy for aridity, showing that Chew Bahir reacted to the insolation-controlled humidity increase of the AHP with a remarkably abrupt onset and a gradual termination, framing a sharply defined arid phase (similar to 12.8-11.6 ka calBP) corresponding to the Younger Dryas chronozone. The Chew Bahir record correlates well with low- and high-latitude paleoclimate records, demonstrating that the site responded to regional and global climate changes.
The motion of tectonic plates is accommodated at fault zones. One of the unanswered questions about fault zones relates to the role they play in controlling shallow and local hydrology. This study focuses on the Arava/Araba Fault (AF) zone, the southern portion of the Dead Sea Transform (DST) in the Middle East. We combine seismic and electromagnetic methods (EM) to image the geometry and map the petro-physical properties and water occurrence in the top 100 m of this active fault. For three profiles, P-velocity and resistivity images were derived independently. Using a neural network cluster analysis three classes with similar P-velocity and resistivities could then be determined from these images. These classes correspond to spatial domains of specific material and wetness. The first class occurs primarily east of the fault consisting of 'wet' sand (dunes) and brecciated sediments, whereas the second class composed of similar material located west of the fault is 'dry'. The third class lies at depth below ca. 50 m and is composed of highly deformed and weathered Precambrian rocks that constitute the multi-branch fault zone of the AF at this location. The combination of two independent measurements like seismics and EM linked by a stringent mathematical approach has thus shown the potential to delineate the interplay of lithology and water near active faults.
Apatite fission track and apatite and zircon (U-Th)/He ages were obtained from high- and ultra high-pressure rocks from the Kaghan Valley, Pakistan. Four samples from the high altitude northern parts of the valley yielded apatite fission track ages between 24.5 +/- 3.7 and 15.6 +/- 2.1 Ma and apatite (U-Th)/He ages between 21.0 +/- 0.6 and 5.3 +/- 0.2 Ma. These data record cooling of the formerly deeply-subducted high-grade metamorphic rocks induced by denudation and exhumation consistent with extension and back sliding along the reactivated, normal-acting Main Mantle Thrust. Overlap at around 10 Ma between fission track and (U-Th)/He ages is recognised at one location (Besal) showing that fast cooling occurred due to brittle reactivation of a former thrust fault. Widespread Miocene cooling is also evident in adjacent areas to the west (Deosai Plateau, Tso Moran), most likely related to uplift and unroofing linked to continued underplating of the Indian lower crust beneath Ladakh and Kohistan in the Late Eocene to Oligocene. In the southernmost part of the study area, near Naran, two significantly younger Late Miocene to Pliocene apatite fission track ages of 7.6 +/- 2.1 to 4.0 +/- 0.5 Ma suggest a spatial and temporal separation of exhumation processes. These younger ages are best explained by enhanced Late Miocene uplift and erosion driven by thrusting along the Main Boundary Thrust.
The need to accurately document the spatiotemporal distribution of earthquake-generated strong ground motions is essential for evaluating the seismic vulnerability of sites of critical infrastructure. Understanding the threshold for maximum earthquake-induced ground motions at such sites provides valuable information to seismologists, earthquake engineers, local agencies, and policymakers when determining ground motion hazards of seismically sensitive infrastructures. In this context, fragile geologic features such as precariously balanced rocks (PBRs) serve as negative evidence for earthquake-induced ground motions and provide important physical constraints on the upper limits of ground motions. The three-dimensional (3D) shape of a PBR is a critical factor in determining its static stability and thus susceptibility to toppling during strong ground shaking events. Furthermore, the geomorphic settings of PBRs provide important controls on PBR exhumation histories that are interpreted from surface exposure dating methods. In this paper, we present PBRslenderness, a MATLAB-based program that evaluates the two-dimensional (2D) static stabilities of PBRs from unconstrained digital photographs. The program's graphical user interface allows users to interactively digitize a PBR and calculates the 2D geometric parameters that define its static stability. A reproducibility study showed that our 2D calculations compare well against their counterparts that were computed in 3D (R-2 = 0.77-0.98 for 22 samples). A sensitivity study for single-user and multiuser digitization routines further confirmed the reproducibility of PBRslenderness estimates (coefficients of variation c(v) = 4.3%-6.5% for 100 runs; R-2 = 0.87-0.99 for 20 PBRs). We used PBRslenderness to analyze 261 PBRs in a low-seismicity setting to investigate the local geomorphic controls on PBR stability and preservation. PBRslenderness showed that a PBR's shape strongly controls its static stability and that there is no relationship between a PBR's stability and its geomorphic location in a drainage basin. However, the geomorphic settings of PBRs control their preservation potential by restricting their formation to hillslope gradients <40 degrees and the upper reaches of drainage basins. Such examples of our program's utility have led to its use in archival efforts of PBRs in southern California and Nevada, USA.
The global geographic distribution of subseafloor sedimentary microbes and the cause(s) of that distribution are largely unexplored. Here, we show that total microbial cell abundance in subseafloor sediment varies between sites by ca. five orders of magnitude. This variation is strongly correlated with mean sedimentation rate and distance from land. Based on these correlations, we estimate global subseafloor sedimentary microbial abundance to be 2.9 center dot 10(29) cells [corresponding to 4.1 petagram (Pg) C and similar to 0.6% of Earth's total living biomass]. This estimate of subseafloor sedimentary microbial abundance is roughly equal to previous estimates of total microbial abundance in seawater and total microbial abundance in soil. It is much lower than previous estimates of subseafloor sedimentary microbial abundance. In consequence, we estimate Earth's total number of microbes and total living biomass to be, respectively, 50-78% and 10-45% lower than previous estimates.
Earthquake-triggered landslide dams are potentially dangerous disrupters of water and sediment flux in mountain rivers, and capable of releasing catastrophic outburst flows to downstream areas. We analyze an inventory of 828 landslide dams in the Longmen Shan mountains, China, triggered by the M-w 7.9 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. This database is unique in that it is the largest of its kind attributable to a single regional-scale triggering event: 501 of the spatially clustered landslides fully blocked rivers, while the remainder only partially obstructed or diverted channels in steep watersheds of the hanging wall of the Yingxiu-Beichuan Fault Zone. The size distributions of the earthquake-triggered landslides, landslide dams, and associated lakes (a) can be modeled by an inverse gamma distribution; (b) show that moderate-size slope failures caused the majority of blockages; and (c) allow a detailed assessment of seismically induced river-blockage effects on regional water and sediment storage. Monte Carlo simulations based on volumetric scaling relationships for soil and bedrock failures respectively indicate that 14% (18%) of the estimated total coseismic landslide volume of 6.4 (14.6) x 10(9) m(3) was contained in landslide dams, representing only 1.4% of the >60,000 slope failures attributed to the earthquake. These dams have created storage capacity of similar to 0.6x 10(9) m(3) for incoming water and sediment. About 25% of the dams containing 2% of the total river-blocking debris volume failed one week after the earthquake; these figures had risen to 60% (similar to 20%), and >90% (>90%) within one month, and one:year, respectively, thus also emptying similar to 92% of the total potential water and sediment storage behind these, dams within one year following the earthquake. Currently only similar to 0.08 x 10(9) m(3) remain available as natural reservoirs for storing water and sediment, while similar to 0.19 x 10(9) m(3), i.e. about a third of the total river-blocking debris volume, has been eroded by rivers. Dam volume and upstream catchment area control to first order the longevity of the barriers, and bivariate domain plots are consistent with the observation that most earthquake-triggered landslide dams were ephemeral. We conclude that the river-blocking portion of coseismic slope failures disproportionately modulates the post-seismic sediment flux in the Longmen Shan on annual to decadal timescales.
Understanding the dynamics of sediment fluxes is a key issue to constrain modern erosion rates in mountain belts and determine the still debated level of control exerted by precipitation, topography and tectonics. The well defined monsoon seasonality in the Himalayas, together with active tectonics and strong relief provide an ideal environment to assess these possible interactions. For this purpose, we present a new compilation of daily suspended sediment data for 12 stations of the major rivers of the Nepal Himalayas. We analyze the relationships of sediment transport with daily river discharge and precipitation data as well as with morphometric parameters. We show that suspended sediment concentrations vary systematically through the seasons and asynchronously to river discharge displaying a hysteresis effect. This clockwise hysteresis effect disappears when suspended sediment fluxes are directly compared with direct storm discharge. Therefore we attribute the hysteresis effect to groundwater dilution rather than a sediment supply limitation. We infer a rating model to calculate erosion rates directly from long river discharge chronicles. We show that, when normalized by drainage area and mean sediment flux, all rivers exhibit the same trend. This similarity implies that all river basins have the same erosion behavior, independent of location, size and catchment characteristics. Erosion rates calculated from suspended sediment fluxes range between 0.1 and 2.8 mm/yr. The erosion rates of the three main basins of Nepal are in the range 0.9-1.5 mm/yr. Erosion rates in the Higher Himalayas are relatively low ( <0.5 mm/yr, except for Kali Gandaki), while in the Lesser Himalayas they range from 0.2 to 2 mm/yr. We propose that material transport in the rivers depends on hillslope sediment supply, which is, in turn, controlled by those rainfalls producing direct runoff. In other words, the rivers in the Nepal Himalayas are supply-limited and the hillsopes as a contributing source are transport-limited. We also show that erosion processes are not as much controlled by infrequently occurring extreme precipitation events, than by moderate ones with a high recurrence interval.
Coincident with the intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (WIG) around 2.73 million years (Ma) ago, sediment cores from both the open subarctic North Pacific and the Antarctic indicate a rapid decline in diatom opal accumulation flux to the seabed, representing one of the most abrupt and dramatic changes in the marine sediment record associated with the development of Pleistocene glacial cycles. In the North Pacific, bulk sediment nitrogen isotope data and alkenone-derived sea surface temperature (SST) estimates suggest that the productivity decline was driven by reduced exchange between surface and deep water, due to weaker wind-driven upwelling and/or a strengthening of the halocline (i.e. "stratification"). In this study of the 2.73 Ma transition at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 882 in the western subarctic North Pacific, diatom-bound nitrogen isotopes (delta N-15(db)), alkenone mass accumulation rate, and alkenone- and archaeal tetraether-based SST reconstructions support the stratification hypothesis, indicating perennially lower export production, generally higher nitrate consumption, and greater inter-seasonal variation in SST after the 2.73 Ma transition. In addition, the delta N-15(db) of large and small size fractions of Coscinodiscus spp. suggest that these diatoms grew mostly during the spring bloom during the late Pliocene, switching to their current fall-to-winter growth period at the 2.73 Ma transition; this view is consistent with their decline in dominance and provides further evidence for increased stratification (reduced vertical exchange) in the North Pacific after 2.73 Ma. The delta N-15(db) data indicate that, over the similar to 100 kyr period after the 2.73 Ma transition studied here, nitrate consumption did not reach late Pleistocene ice age levels and that nitrate consumption in post-2.73 Ma warm stages was similar to that before the transition, even though productivity was greatly reduced. We tentatively attribute this to relatively weak dust-borne iron inputs in the early post-2.73 Ma period.
The Menderes Massif, exposed in western Anatolia, is a metamorphic complex cropping out in the Alpine orogenic belt. The metamorphic rock succession of the Massif is made up of a Precambrian basement and overlying Paleozoic-early Tertiary cover series. The Pan-African basement is composed of late Proterozoic metasedimentary rocks consisting of partially migmatized paragneisses and conformably overlying medium- to high-grade mica schists, intruded by orthogneisses and metagabbros. Along the southern flank of the southern submassif, we recognized well-preserved primary contact relationship between biotite and leucocratic tourmaline orthogneisses and country rocks as the orthogneisses represent numerous large plutons, stocks and vein rocks intruded into a basement of garnet mica schists. Based on the radiometric data, the primary deposition age of the precursors of the country rocks, garnet mica schist, can be constrained between 600 and 550 Ma (latest Neoproterozoic). The North Africa-Arabian-Nubian Shield in the Mozambique Belt can be suggested as the possible provenance of these metaclastics. The intrusion ages of the leucocratic tourmaline orthogneisses and biotite orthogneisses were dated at 550-540 Ma (latest Neoproterozoic-earliest Cambrian) by zircon U/Pb and Pb/Pb geochronology. These granitoids represent the products of the widespread Pan-African acidic magmatic activity, which can be attributed to the closure of the Mozambique Ocean during the final collision of East and West Gondwana. Detrital zircon ages at about 550 Ma in the Paleozoic muscovite-quartz schists show that these Pan-African granitoids in the basement form the source rocks of the cover series of the Menderes Massif.
Beringian climate and environmental history are poorly characterized at its easternmost edge. Lake sediments from the northern Yukon Territory have recorded sedimentation, vegetation, summer temperature and precipitation changes since similar to 16 cal ka BP. Herb-dominated tundra persisted until similar to 14.7 cal ka BP with mean July air temperatures <= 5 degrees C colder and annual precipitation 50 to 120 mm lower than today. Temperatures rapidly increased during the Bolling/Allerod interstadial towards modern conditions, favoring establishment of Betula-Salix shrub tundra. Pollen-inferred temperature reconstructions recorded a pronounced Younger Dryas stadial in east Beringia with a temperature drop of similar to 1.5 degrees C (similar to 2.5 to 3.0 degrees C below modern conditions) and low net precipitation (90 to 170 mm) but show little evidence of an early Holocene thermal maximum in the pollen record. Sustained low net precipitation and increased evaporation during early Holocene warming suggest a moisture-limited spread of vegetation and an obscured summer temperature maximum. Northern Yukon Holocene moisture availability increased in response to a retreating Laurentide Ice Sheet, postglacial sea level rise, and decreasing summer insolation that in turn led to establishment of Alnus-Berula shrub tundra from similar to 5 cal ka BP until present, and conversion of a continental climate into a coastal-maritime climate near the Beaufort Sea.
Mineral chemistry and thermobarometry of the staurolite-chloritoid schists from Poshtuk, NW Iran
(2012)
The Poshtuk metapelitic rocks in northwestern Iran underwent two main phases of regional and contact metamorphism. Microstructures, textural features and field relations indicate that these rocks underwent a polymetamorphic history. The dominant metamorphic assemblage of the metapelites is garnet, staurolite, chloritoid, chlorite, muscovite and quartz, which grew mainly syntectonically during the later contact metamorphic event. Peak metamorphic conditions of this event took place at 580 degrees C and similar to 3-4 kbar, indicating that this event occurred under high-temperature and low-pressure conditions (HT/LP metamorphism), which reflects the high heat flow in this part of the crust. This event is mainly controlled by advective heat input through magmatic intrusions into all levels of the crust. These extensive Eocene metamorphic and magmatic activities can be associated with the early Alpine Orogeny, which resulted in this area from the convergence between the Arabian and Eurasian plates, and the Cenozoic closure of the Tethys oceanic tract(s).
Spatially explicit multi-year crop information is required for many environmental applications. The study presented here proposes a hierarchical classification approach for per-plot crop type identification that is based on spectral-temporal profiles and accounts for deviations from the average growth stage timings by incorporating agro-meteorological information in the classification process. It is based on the fact that each crop type has a distinct seasonal spectral behavior and that the weather may accelerate or delay crop development. The classification approach was applied to map 12 crop types in a 14,000 km(2) catchment area in Northeast Germany for several consecutive years. An accuracy assessment was performed and compared to those of a maximum likelihood classification. The 7.1% lower overall classification accuracy of the spectral-temporal profiles approach may be justified by its independence of ground truth data. The results suggest that the number and timing of image acquisition is crucial to distinguish crop types. The increasing availability of optical imagery offering a high temporal coverage and a spatial resolution suitable for per-plot crop type mapping will facilitate the continuous refining of the spectral-temporal profiles for common crop types and different agro-regions and is expected to improve the classification accuracy of crop type maps using these profiles.
The actual evapotranspiration is an important, but difficult to determine, element in the water balance of lakes and their catchment areas. Reliable data on evapotranspiration are not available for most lake basins for which paleoclimate reconstructions and modeling have been performed, particularly those in remote parts of Africa. We have used thermal infrared multispectral data for 14 ASTER scenes from the TERRA satellite to estimate the actual evapotranspiration in the 12,800 km(2) catchment of the Suguta Valley, northern Kenya Rift Evidence from sediments and paleo-shorelines indicates that, during the African Humid Period (AHP, 14.8 to 5.5 kyrs BP), this valley contained a large lake, 280 m deep and covering similar to 2200 km(2), which has now virtually disappeared. Evapotranspiration estimates for the Suguta Basin were generated using the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL). Climate data required for the model were extracted from a high-resolution gridded dataset obtained from the Climatic Research Unit (East Anglia, UK). Results suggest significant spatial variations in evapotranspiration within the catchment area (ranging from 450 mm/yr in the basin to the north to 2000 mm/yr in more elevated areas) and precipitation that was similar to 20% higher during the AHP than in recent times. These results are in agreement with other estimates of paleo-precipitation in East Africa. The extreme response of the lake system (similar to 280 m greater water depth than today, and a lake surface area of 2200 km(2)) to only moderately higher precipitation illustrates the possible sensitivity of this area to future climate change.
Deposits of submarine debris flows can build up substantial topography on the sea floor. The resulting sea floor morphology can strongly influence the pathways of and deposition from subsequent turbidity currents. Map views of sea floor morphology are available for parts of the modern sea floor and from high-resolution seismic-reflection data. However, these data sets usually lack lithological information. In contrast, outcrops provide cross-sectional and lateral stratigraphic details of deep-water strata with superb lithological control but provide little information on sea floor morphology. Here, a methodology is presented that extracts fundamental lithological information from sediment core and well logs with a novel calibration between core, well-logs and seismic attributes within a large submarine axial channel belt in the Tertiary Molasse foreland basin, Austria. This channel belt was the course of multiple debris-flow and turbidity current events, and the fill consists of interbedded layers deposited by both of these processes. Using the core-well-seismic calibration, three-dimensional lithofacies proportion volumes were created. These volumes enable the interpretation of the three-dimensional distribution of the important lithofacies and thus the investigation of sea floor morphology produced by debris-flow events and its impact on succeeding turbidite deposition. These results show that the distribution of debris-flow deposits follows a relatively regular pattern of levees and lobes. When subsequent high-density turbidity currents encountered this mounded debris-flow topography, they slowed and deposited a portion of their sandy high-density loads just upstream of morphological highs. Understanding the depositional patterns of debris flows is key to understanding and predicting the location and character of associated sandstone accumulations. This detailed model of the filling style and the resulting stratigraphic architecture of a debris-flow dominated deep-marine depositional system can be used as an analogue for similar modern and ancient systems.
Local earthquake data from a dense temporary seismological network in the southern Dead Sea area have been analysed within the project DESIRE (Dead Sea Integrated Research Project). Local earthquakes are used for the first precise image of the distribution of the P-wave velocity and the vP/vS ratios. 65 stations registered 655 local events within 18 months of observation time. A subset of 530 well-locatable events with 26 730 P- and S-arrival times was used to calculate a tomographic model for the vP and vP/vS distribution. Since the study area is at first-order 2-D, a gradual approach was chosen, which compromised a 2-D inversion followed by a 3-D inversion. The sedimentary basin fill is clearly imaged through high vP/vS ratios and low vP. The basin fill shows an asymmetric structure with average depth of 7 km at the western boundary and depth between 10 and 14 km at the eastern boundary. This asymmetry is reflected by the vertical strike-slip eastern border fault, and the normal faulting at the western boundary, caused by the transtensional deformation within the last 5 Myr. Within the basin fill the Lisan salt diapir is imaged through low vP/vS ratios, reflecting its low fluid content. The extensions were determined to 12 km in EW and 17 km in NS direction while its depth is 56 km. The thickness of the pre-basin sediments below the basin fill cannot be derived from the tomography datait is estimated to less than 3 km from former investigations. Below the basin, down to 18 km depth very low P-wave velocities and low vP/vS ratios are observedmost likely caused by fluids from the surrounding crust or the upper mantle.
Terrestrial mud volcanoes (TMVs) represent geochemically diverse habitats with varying sulfur sources and yet sulfur cycling in these environments remains largely unexplored. Here we characterized the sulfur-metabolizing microorganisms and activity in four TMVs in Azerbaijan. A combination of geochemical analyses, biological rate measurements and molecular diversity surveys (targeting metabolic genes aprA and dsrA and SSU ribosomal RNA) supported the presence of active sulfur-oxidizing and sulfate-reducing guilds in all four TMVs across a range of physiochemical conditions, with diversity of these guilds being unique to each TMV. The TMVs varied in potential sulfate reduction rates (SRR) by up to four orders of magnitude with highest SRR observed in sediments where in situ sulfate concentrations were highest. Maximum temperatures at which SRR were measured was 60 degrees C in two TMVs. Corresponding with these trends in SRR, members of the potentially thermophilic, spore-forming, Desulfotomaculum were detected in these TMVs by targeted 16S rRNA analysis. Additional sulfate-reducing bacterial lineages included members of the Desulfobacteraceae and Desulfobulbaceae detected by aprA and dsrA analyses and likely contributing to the mesophilic SRR measured. Phylotypes affiliated with sulfide-oxidizing Gamma- and Betaproteobacteria were abundant in aprA libraries from low sulfate TMVs, while the highest sulfate TMV harboured 16S rRNA phylotypes associated with sulfur-oxidizing Epsilonproteobacteria. Altogether, the biogeochemical and microbiological data indicate these unique terrestrial habitats support diverse active sulfur-cycling microorganisms reflecting the in situ geochemical environment.
Many agriculture-based economies are increasingly under stress from climate change and socio-economic pressures. The excessive exploitation of natural resources still represents the standard procedure to achieve socio-economic development. In the area of the Moulouya river basin, Morocco, natural water availability represents a key resource for all economic activities. Agriculture represents the most important sector, and frequently occurring water deficits are aggravated by climate change. On the basis of historical trends taken from CRU TS 2.1, this paper analyses the impact of climate change on the per capita water availability under inclusion of population trends. The Climatic Water Balance (CWB) shows a significant decrease for the winter period, causing adverse effects for the main agricultural season. Further, moisture losses due to increasing evapotranspiration rates indicate problems for the annual water budget and groundwater recharge. The per capita blue water availability falls below a minimum threshold of 500 m(3) per year, denoting a high regional vulnerability to increasing water scarcity assuming a no-response scenario. Regional development focusing on the water-intense sectors of agriculture and tourism appears to be at risk. Institutional capacities and policies need to address the problem, and the prompt implementation of innovative water production and efficiency measures is recommended.
Multibeam bathymetry revealed the occurrence of numerous craterlike depressions, so-called pockmarks, on the sea floor of the Hammerfest Basin and the Loppa High, south-western Barents Sea. To investigate whether these pockmarks are related to ongoing gas seepage, microbial processes associated with methane metabolism were analyzed using geochemical, biogeochemical and microbiological techniques. Gravity cores were collected along transects crossing individual pockmarks, allowing a direct comparison between different locations inside (assumed activity center), on the rim, and outside of a pockmark (reference sites). Concentrations of hydrocarbons in the sediment, particularly methane, were measured as headspace (free) gas, and in the occluded and adsorbed gas fraction. Down to a depth of 2.6 m below sea floor (mbsf) sulfate reduction rates were quantified by radiotracer incubations. Concentrations of dissolved sulfate in the porewater were determined as well. Neither the sulfate profiles nor the gas measurements show any evidence of microbial activity or active fluid venting. Methane concentrations and sulfate reduction rates were extremely low or even below the detection limit. The results show that the observed sediment structures are most likely paleo-pockmarks, their formation probably occurred during the last deglaciation.
Denudation processes and sediment transfer are investigated in a high-elevation, low-relief environment (eastern Altiplano, Bolivia) using Be-10, Al-26, and in situ C-14 analysis in fluvial sediments. Concentrations of the long-lived nuclides Be-10 and Al-26 yield consistently low catchment-wide denudation rates of similar to 3-29 mm ky(-1) (integrating over 21-194 ky), which reflect the low geomorphic gradients and the discontinuity of fluvial transport along the eastern Altiplano margin. No significant correlation is recorded between denudation rates of individual catchments and morphological basin parameters (slope, area, elevation). This is attributed to the overall little variability in morphology. The agreement between the denudation rates and published modern sediment discharge data suggests steady landscape evolution of the eastern Altiplano from the latest Pleistocene until today. While Be-10 and Al-26 provide long-term estimates on sediment production, in situ cosmogenic C-14 is used to trace short-term sediment storage. In situ C-14 concentrations are comparatively low indicating that C-14 decayed during alluvial storage over at least the past similar to 11-20 ky. We assume storage at shallow depth (2 m) and consider the influence of soil-mantled hillslopes on the in situ C-14 concentration. Our results illustrate the importance of sediment storage even over short distances and demonstrate the potential of in situ C-14 to study sediment routing and transfer times within drainage systems. However, this study also demonstrates that the long-lived Be-10 and Al-26 nuclides can provide adequate estimates on long-term denudation rates even if sediment transport is not fast but interrupted by several thousands of years of storage.
The classification of small catchments with respect to low flow risk is needed by water and environmental managers to plan adaptation measures for freshwater streams. In this study a new approach is presented to assess the risk of seasonal low flow in the Pleistocene landscape of the Federal State of Brandenburg in Germany. Seasonal low flow and drought in small streams is very common in this region and is predicted to increase due to climate change within the next decades. Data of 15 years (1991-2006) of daily discharge at 37 small catchments (<500 km(2)) and rainfall data from the same region were used. Principal component analyses were applied to the two data sets separately.
The first five principal components of the discharge data, principal components of a precipitation data set covering the same catchments and catchment characteristics were used to explain the patterns found. The first five discharge components explained 72.9% of the total variance in the data set. The first component reflected the general regional discharge pattern. Components 2 and 3 of the discharge data could be related to spatial patterns of precipitation. Components 4 and 5 of the discharge data reflected geohydrologic processes within the catchments. In order to identify catchments with high risk with respect to low flows, component three and five were important as they both identified catchments with faster decrease of flows during summer. These components were used to estimate low flow risk. Catchments located in the northeast of Brandenburg, especially those in the Barnim highlands north and east of Berlin, were identified to be prone to seasonal low flow. There water management measures to adapt to climate change are needed the most.
Constraining the pre-Neogene history of the Puna plateau is crucial for establishing the initial conditions that attended the early stage evolution of the southern extent of the Andean plateau. We apply high-to low-temperature thermochronology data from plutonic rocks in northwestern Argentina to quantify the Paleozoic, Mesozoic and early Tertiary cooling history of the Andean crust. U-Pb crystallization ages of zircons indicate that pluton intrusion occurred during the early mid-Ordovician (490-470 Ma) and the late Jurassic (160-150 Ma). Lower-temperature cooling histories from Ar-40/Ar-39 analyses of K-feldspar vary substantially. Basement rocks underlying the western Puna resided at temperatures below 200 degrees C (<6 km depth) since the Devonian (similar to 400 Ma). In contrast, basement rocks underlying the southeastern Puna were hotter (similar to 200-300 degrees C) throughout the Paleozoic and Jurassic and cooled to temperatures of <200 degrees C by similar to 120 Ma. The southeastern Puna basement records a rapid cooling phase coeval with active extension of the Cretaceous Salta rift at similar to 160-100 Ma that we associate with tectonic faulting and lithospheric thinning. The northeastern Puna experienced protracted cooling until the late Cretaceous with temperatures <200 degrees C during the Paleocene. Higher cooling rates between 78 and 55 Ma are associated with thermal subsidence during the postrift stage of the Salta rift and/or shortening-related flexural subsidence. Accelerated cooling and deformation during the Eocene was focused within a narrow zone along the eastern Puna/Eastern Cordillera transition that coincides with Paleozoic/Mesozoic structural and thermal boundaries. Our results constrain regional erosion-induced cooling throughout the Cenozoic to have been less than similar to 150 degrees C, which implies total Cenozoic denudation of <6-4 km.