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Current evidence suggests that many of the major events in hominin evolution occurred in East Africa. Hence, over the past two decades, there has been intensive work undertaken to understand African palaeoclimate and tectonics in order to put together a coherent picture of how the environment of Africa has varied over the past 10 Myr. A new consensus is emerging that suggests the unusual geology and climate of East Africa created a complex, environmentally very variable setting. This new understanding of East African climate has led to the pulsed climate variability hypothesis that suggests the long-term drying trend in East Africa was punctuated by episodes of short alternating periods of extreme humidity and aridity which may have driven hominin speciation, encephalization and dispersals out of Africa. This hypothesis is unique as it provides a conceptual framework within which other evolutionary theories can be examined: first, at macro-scale comparing phylogenetic gradualism and punctuated equilibrium; second, at a more focused level of human evolution comparing allopatric speciation, aridity hypothesis, turnover pulse hypothesis, variability selection hypothesis, Red Queen hypothesis and sympatric speciation based on sexual selection. It is proposed that each one of these mechanisms may have been acting on hominins during these short periods of climate variability, which then produce a range of different traits that led to the emergence of new species. In the case of Homo erectus (sensu lato), it is not just brain size that changes but life history (shortened inter-birth intervals, delayed development), body size and dimorphism, shoulder morphology to allow thrown projectiles, adaptation to long-distance running, ecological flexibility and social behaviour. The future of evolutionary research should be to create evidence-based meta-narratives, which encompass multiple mechanisms that select for different traits leading ultimately to speciation.
A SSHAC Level 3 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for a New-Build Nuclear Site in South Africa
(2015)
A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been conducted for a potential nuclear power plant site on the coast of South Africa, a country of low-to-moderate seismicity. The hazard study was conducted as a SSHAC Level 3 process, the first application of this approach outside North America. Extensive geological investigations identified five fault sources with a non-zero probability of being seismogenic. Five area sources were defined for distributed seismicity, the least active being the host zone for which the low recurrence rates for earthquakes were substantiated through investigations of historical seismicity. Empirical ground-motion prediction equations were adjusted to a horizon within the bedrock at the site using kappa values inferred from weak-motion analyses. These adjusted models were then scaled to create new equations capturing the range of epistemic uncertainty in this region with no strong motion recordings. Surface motions were obtained by convolving the bedrock motions with site amplification functions calculated using measured shear-wave velocity profiles.
Cosmic-Ray neutron sensing (CRS) is a unique approach to measure soil moisture at field scale filling the gap of current methodologies. However, CRS signal is affected by all the hydrogen pools on the land surface and understanding their relative importance plays an important role for the application of the method e.g., validation of remote sensing products and data assimilation. In this study, a soil moisture scaling approach is proposed to estimate directly the correct CRS soil moisture based on the soil moisture profile measured at least in one position within the field. The approach has the advantage to avoid the need to introduce one correction for each hydrogen contribution and to estimate indirectly all the related time-varying hydrogen pools. Based on the data collected in three crop seasons, the scaling approach shows its ability to identify and to quantify the seasonal biomass water equivalent. Additionally, the analysis conducted at sub-daily time resolution is able to quantify the daily vertical redistribution of the water biomass and the rainfall interception, showing promising applications of the CRS method also for these types of measurements. Overall, the study underlines how not only soil moisture but all the specific hydrological processes in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum should be considered for a proper evaluation of the CRS signal. For this scope, the scaling approach reveals to be a simple and pragmatic analysis that can be easily extended to other experimental sites. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Damage due to floods has increased during the last few decades, and further increases are expected in several regions due to climate change and growing vulnerability. To address the projected increase in flood risk, a combination of structural and non-structural flood risk mitigation measures is considered as a promising adaptation strategy. Such a combination takes into account that flood defence systems may fail, and prepares for unexpected crisis situations via land-use planning and private damage reduction, e.g. via building precautionary measures, and disaster response. However, knowledge about damage-reducing measures is scarce and often fragmented since based on case studies. For instance, it is believed that private precautionary measures, like shielding with water shutters or building fortification, are especially effective in areas with frequent flood events and low flood water levels. However, some of these measures showed a significant damage-reducing effect also during the extreme flood event in 2002 in Germany. This review analyses potentials of land-use planning and private flood precautionary measures as components of adaptation strategies for global change. Focus is on their implementation, their damage-reducing effects and their potential contribution to address projected changes in flood risk, particularly in developed countries.
We propose a RAndom Interacting Network (RAIN) model to study the interactions between a pair of complex networks. The model involves two major steps: (i) the selection of a pair of nodes, one from each network, based on intra-network node-based characteristics, and (ii) the placement of a link between selected nodes based on the similarity of their relative importance in their respective networks. Node selection is based on a selection fitness function and node linkage is based on a linkage probability defined on the linkage scores of nodes. The model allows us to relate within-network characteristics to between-network structure. We apply the model to the interaction between the USA and Schengen airline transportation networks (ATNs). Our results indicate that two mechanisms: degree-based preferential node selection and degree-assortative link placement are necessary to replicate the observed inter-network degree distributions as well as the observed inter-network assortativity. The RAIN model offers the possibility to test multiple hypotheses regarding the mechanisms underlying network interactions. It can also incorporate complex interaction topologies. Furthermore, the framework of the RAIN model is general and can be potentially adapted to various real-world complex systems.
Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) based on radiolarian assemblage changes are estimated for the last 160 kyr, from a sediment core (Y9) recovered from Pukaki Saddle, northeast of Campbell Plateau. Site Y9 lies beneath Subantarctic Surface Water (SAW) immediately to the north of the Subantarctic Front (SAF), which in this region is bathymetrically constrained by the edges of Campbell Plateau and defines the northern boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Radiolarian assemblages are characterised by an exceptionally high abundance of the Antarctic to subantarctic species Antarctissa spp. (up to 68%), especially during glacial intervals. SST estimates are derived using Factor Analysis and the Modern Analog Technique. Both methods capture the glacial-interglacial (G-I) pattern. The SST reconstructions show the changing relative influence of distinct water masses during the past G-I cycle, with major temperature variations of the order of 7-9 degrees C at glacial Terminations. Glacials (marine isotope stages (MIS) 6 and 2) are associated with particularly cool SSTs that are indicative of a more vigorous SAF/ACC and an enhancement of the inflow through Pukaki Saddle and/or frequent development of cold-core eddies at the SAF. By contrast, the influence of warmer waters and relaxation of the ACC during interglacials can be inferred from temperatures slightly warmer (e.g., mid-Holocene) and/or comparable to present day (e.g., MIS 5e). During these intervals, relatively warmer temperatures most likely indicate a higher warmcore eddy activity due to a strengthened Subtropical Front and/or a weakened inflow of cool water through Pukaki Saddle and/or an increased stratification in the Campbell Plateau region. Furthermore, the SST record is characterised by an abrupt warming at ca. 10 kyr (i.e., Termination l), the occurrence of a reversal at Termination I, and a warming event at the end of MIS 4, coinciding with the A4 event in the Byrd ice core. These characteristics, together with the pronounced G-I cycle shown by the SST estimates, suggest that Site Y9 is influenced by major oceanographic changes in the SW Pacific and responds to thermal changes at high southern latitudes. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Extreme weather events are likely to occur more often under climate change and the resulting effects on ecosystems could lead to a further acceleration of climate change. But not all extreme weather events lead to extreme ecosystem response. Here, we focus on hazardous ecosystem behaviour and identify coinciding weather conditions. We use a simple probabilistic risk assessment based on time series of ecosystem behaviour and climate conditions. Given the risk assessment terminology, vulnerability and risk for the previously defined hazard are estimated on the basis of observed hazardous ecosystem behaviour.
We apply this approach to extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystems to drought, defining the hazard as a negative net biome productivity over a 12-month period. We show an application for two selected sites using data for 1981-2010 and then apply the method to the pan-European scale for the same period, based on numerical modelling results (LPJmL for ecosystem behaviour; ERA-Interim data for climate).
Our site-specific results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method, using the SPEI to describe the climate condition. The site in Spain provides an example of vulnerability to drought because the expected value of the SPEI is 0.4 lower for hazardous than for non-hazardous ecosystem behaviour. In northern Germany, on the contrary, the site is not vulnerable to drought because the SPEI expectation values imply wetter conditions in the hazard case than in the non-hazard case.
At the pan-European scale, ecosystem vulnerability to drought is calculated in the Mediterranean and temperate region, whereas Scandinavian ecosystems are vulnerable under conditions without water shortages. These first model- based applications indicate the conceptual advantages of the proposed method by focusing on the identification of critical weather conditions for which we observe hazardous ecosystem behaviour in the analysed data set. Application of the method to empirical time series and to future climate would be important next steps to test the approach.
Stream restoration aims at an enhancement of ecological habitats, an increase of water retention within a landscape and sometimes even at an improvement of biogeochemical functions of lotic ecosystems. For the latter, good exchange between groundwater and stream water is often considered to be of major importance. In this study hydraulic connectivity between river and aquifer was investigated for a four years period, covering the restoration of an old oxbow after the second year. The oxbow became reconnected to the stream and the clogging layer in the oxbow was excavated. We expected increasing hydraulic connectivity between oxbow and aquifer after restoration of the stream, and decreasing hydraulic connectivity for the former shortcut due to increased clogging. To test that hypothesis, the spatial and temporal characteristics of the coupled groundwater-stream water system before and after the restoration were analysed by principal component analyses of time series of groundwater heads and stream water levels. The first component depicted between 53% and 70% of the total variance in the dataset for the different years. It captured the propagation of the pressure signal induced by stream water level fluctuations throughout the adjacent aquifer. Thus it could be used as a measure of hydraulic connectivity between stream and aquifer. During the first year, the impact of stream water level fluctuations decreased with distance from the regulated river (shortcut), whereas the hydraulic connection of the oxbow to the adjacent aquifer was very low. After restoration of the stream we observed a slight but not significant increase of hydraulic connectivity in the oxbow in the second year after restoration, but no change for the former shortcut. There is some evidence that the pattern of hydraulic connectivity at the study site is by far more determined by the natural heterogeneity of hydraulic conductivities of the floodplain sediments and the initial construction of the shortcut rather than by the clogging layer in the oxbow. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Cosmogenic nuclides are typically used to either constrain an exposure age, a burial age, or an erosion rate. Constraining the landscape history and past erosion rates in previously glaciated terrains is, however, notoriously difficult because it involves a large number of unknowns. The potential use of cosmogenic nuclides in landscapes with a complex history of exposure and erosion is therefore often quite limited. Here, we present a novel multi-nuclide approach to study the landscape evolution and past erosion rates in terrains with a complex exposure history, particularly focusing on regions that were repeatedly covered by glaciers or ice sheets during the Quaternary. The approach, based on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique, focuses on mapping the range of landscape histories that are consistent with a given set of measured cosmogenic nuclide concentrations. A fundamental assumption of the model approach is that the exposure history at the site/location can be divided into two distinct regimes: i) interglacial periods characterized by zero shielding due to overlying ice and a uniform interglacial erosion rate, and ii) glacial periods characterized by 100% shielding and a uniform glacial erosion rate. We incorporate the exposure history in the model framework by applying a threshold value to the global marine benthic delta O-18 record and include the threshold value as a free model parameter, hereby taking into account global changes in climate. However, any available information on the glacial-interglacial history at the sampling location, in particular the timing of the last deglaciation event, is readily incorporated in the model to constrain the inverse problem. Based on the MCMC technique, the model delineates the most likely exposure history, including the glacial and interglacial erosion rates, which, in turn, makes it possible to reconstruct an exhumation history at the site. We apply the model to two landscape scenarios based on synthetic data and two landscape scenarios based on paired Be-10/Al-26 data from West Greenland, which makes it possible to quantify the denudation rate at these locations. The model framework, which currently incorporates any combination of the following nuclides Be-10, Al-26, C-14, and Ne-21, is highly flexible and can be adapted to many different landscape settings. The model framework may also be used in combination with physics-based landscape evolution models to predict nuclide concentrations at different locations in the landscape. This may help validate the landscape models via comparison to measured nuclide concentrations or to devise new effective sampling strategies. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Computer-based simulation models are frequently used in hydrological research and engineering but also in other fields of environmental sciences. New case studies often require existing model concepts to be adapted. Extensions may be necessary due to the peculiarities of the studied natural system or subtleties of anthropogenic control. In other cases, simplifications must be made in response to scarce data, incomplete knowledge, or restrictions set by the spatio-temporal scale of application. This paper introduces an open-source modeling framework called ECHSE designed to cope with the above-mentioned challenges. It provides a lightweight infrastructure for the rapid development of new, reusable simulation tools and, more importantly, the safe modification of existing formulations. ECHSE-based models treat the simulated system as a collection of interacting objects. Although feedbacks are generally supported, the majority of the objects' interactions is expected to be of the feed-forward type. Therefore, the ECHSE software is particularly useful in the context of hydrological catchment modeling. Conversely, it is unsuitable, e.g., for fully hydrodynamic simulations and groundwater flow modeling. The focus of the paper is put on a comprehensible outline of the ECHSE's fundamental concepts and limitations. For the purpose of illustration, a specific, ECHSE-based solution for hydrological catchment modeling is presented which has undergone testing in a number of river basins. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.