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In 2015, German Chancellor Angela Merkel decided to allow over a million asylum seekers to cross the border into Germany. One key concern was that her decision would signal an open-door policy to aspiring migrants worldwide – thus further increasing migration to Germany and making the country permanently more attractive to irregular and humanitarian migrants. This ‘pull-effect’ hypothesis has been a mainstay of policy discussions ever since. With the continued global rise in forced displacement, not appearing welcoming to migrants has become a guiding principle for the asylum policy of many large receiving countries. In this article, we exploit the unique case study that Merkel's 2015 decision provides for answering the fundamental question of whether welcoming migration policies have sustained effects on migration towards destination countries. We analyze an extensive range of data on migration inflows, migration aspirations and online search interest between 2000 and 2020. The results reject the ‘pull effect’ hypothesis while reaffirming states’ capacity to adapt to changing contexts and regulate migration.
Phone surveys have increasingly become important data collection tools in developing countries, particularly in the context of sudden contact restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. So far, there is limited evidence regarding the potential of the messenger service WhatsApp for remote data collection despite its large global coverage and expanding membership. WhatsApp may offer advantages in terms of reducing panel attrition and cutting survey costs. WhatsApp may offer additional benefits to migration scholars interested in cross-border migration behavior which is notoriously difficult to measure using conventional face-to-face surveys. In this field experiment, we compared the response rates between WhatsApp and interactive voice response (IVR) modes using a sample of 8446 contacts in Senegal and Guinea. At 12%, WhatsApp survey response rates were nearly eight percentage points lower than IVR survey response rates. However, WhatsApp offers higher survey completion rates, substantially lower costs and does not introduce more sample selection bias compared to IVR. We discuss the potential of WhatsApp surveys in low-income contexts and provide practical recommendations for field implementation.
Studies from several countries suggest that COVID-19 vaccination rates are lower among migrants compared to the general population. Urgent calls have been made to improve vaccine outreach to migrants, however, there is limited evidence on effective approaches, especially using social media. We assessed a targeted, low-cost, Facebook campaign disseminating COVID-19 vaccine information among Arabic, Turkish and Russian speakers in Germany (N = 888,994). As part of the campaign, we conducted two randomized, online experiments to assess the impact of the advertisement (1) language and (2) depicted messenger (government authority, religious leader, doctor or family). Key outcomes included reach, click-through rates, conversion rates and cost-effectiveness. Within 29 days, the campaign reached 890 thousand Facebook users. On average, 2.3 individuals accessed the advertised COVID-19 vaccination appointment tool for every euro spent on the campaign. Migrants were 2.4 (Arabic), 1.8 (Russian) and 1.2 (Turkish) times more likely to click on advertisements translated to their native language compared to German-language advertisements. Furthermore, findings showed that government representatives can be more successful in engaging migrants online compared to other messengers, despite common claims of lower trust in government institutions among migrants. This study highlights the potential of tailored, and translated, vaccination campaigns on social media for reaching migrants who may be left out by traditional media campaigns.
Studies from several countries suggest that COVID-19 vaccination rates are lower among migrants compared to the general population. Urgent calls have been made to improve vaccine outreach to migrants, however, there is limited evidence on effective approaches, especially using social media. We assessed a targeted, low-cost, Facebook campaign disseminating COVID-19 vaccine information among Arabic, Turkish and Russian speakers in Germany (N = 888,994). As part of the campaign, we conducted two randomized, online experiments to assess the impact of the advertisement (1) language and (2) depicted messenger (government authority, religious leader, doctor or family). Key outcomes included reach, click-through rates, conversion rates and cost-effectiveness. Within 29 days, the campaign reached 890 thousand Facebook users. On average, 2.3 individuals accessed the advertised COVID-19 vaccination appointment tool for every euro spent on the campaign. Migrants were 2.4 (Arabic), 1.8 (Russian) and 1.2 (Turkish) times more likely to click on advertisements translated to their native language compared to German-language advertisements. Furthermore, findings showed that government representatives can be more successful in engaging migrants online compared to other messengers, despite common claims of lower trust in government institutions among migrants. This study highlights the potential of tailored, and translated, vaccination campaigns on social media for reaching migrants who may be left out by traditional media campaigns.
A growing number of studies have recently postulated a so-called local turn in the study of immigrant and refugee integration policy. A fundamental, yet untested, assumption of this body of research is that local (sub-national) policies and administrations shape how migrants and refugees integrate into society. We develop and apply an analytical model using multilevel modeling techniques based on large-N, longitudinal survey data (N > 9000) with refugees (2012–2018) in a highly decentralized country (Germany) to estimate the scope for local policy effects net of individual-level and state- and district-level characteristics. We show that region and district-level variation in integration outcomes across multiple dimensions (employment, education, language, housing, social) is limited (∼5%) within 4–8 years after immigration. We find modest variation in policy indicators (∼10%), which do not appear to directly translate into outcomes. We discuss implications for the study of local policies and the potential for greater convergence between administrative and political science, interested in governance structures and policy variation, and sociology and economics, interested primarily in integration outcomes.
Emerging evidence has highlighted the important role of local contexts for integration trajectories of asylum seekers and refugees. Germany's policy of randomly allocating asylum seekers across Germany may advantage some and disadvantage others in terms of opportunities for equal participation in society. This study explores the question whether asylum seekers that have been allocated to rural areas experience disadvantages in terms of language acquisition compared to those allocated to urban areas. We derive testable assumptions using a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) which are then tested using large-N survey data (IAB-BAMF-SOEP refugee survey). We find that living in a rural area has no negative total effect on language skills. Further the findings suggest that the "null effect" is the result of two processes which offset each other: while asylum seekers in rural areas have slightly lower access for formal, federally organized language courses, they have more regular exposure to German speakers.
Measuring migration 2.0
(2021)
The interest in human migration is at its all-time high, yet data to measure migration is notoriously limited. “Big data” or “digital trace data” have emerged as new sources of migration measurement complementing ‘traditional’ census, administrative and survey data. This paper reviews the strengths and weaknesses of eight novel, digital data sources along five domains: reliability, validity, scope, access and ethics. The review highlights the opportunities for migration scholars but also stresses the ethical and empirical challenges. This review intends to be of service to researchers and policy analysts alike and help them navigate this new and increasingly complex field.
Measuring migration 2.0
(2021)
The interest in human migration is at its all-time high, yet data to measure migration is notoriously limited. “Big data” or “digital trace data” have emerged as new sources of migration measurement complementing ‘traditional’ census, administrative and survey data. This paper reviews the strengths and weaknesses of eight novel, digital data sources along five domains: reliability, validity, scope, access and ethics. The review highlights the opportunities for migration scholars but also stresses the ethical and empirical challenges. This review intends to be of service to researchers and policy analysts alike and help them navigate this new and increasingly complex field.
Have you already swiped or liked this morning? Have you taken part in a video conference at work, used or programmed a database? Have you paid with your smartphone on the way home, listened to a podcast, or extended the lending of books you borrowed from the library? And in the evening, have you filled out your tax return application on ELSTER.de on your tablet, shopped online, or paid invoices before you were tempted to watch a series on a streaming platform?
Our lives are entirely digitalized.
These changes make many things faster, easier, and more efficient. But keeping pace with these changes demands a lot from us, and not everyone succeeds. There are people who prefer to go to the bank to make a transfer, leave the programming to the experts, send their tax return by mail, and only use their smartphone to make phone calls. They don’t want to keep pace, or maybe they can’t. They haven’t learned these things. Others, younger people, grow up as “digital natives” surrounded by digital devices, tools, and processes. But does that mean they really know how to use them? Or do they also need digital education?
But what does successful digital education actually look like? Does it teach us how to use a tablet, how to google properly, and how to write Excel spreadsheets? Perhaps it’s about more than that. It’s about understanding the comprehensive change that has been taking hold of our world since it was broken down into digital ones and zeros and rebuilt virtually. But how do we learn to live in a world of digitality – with all that it entails, and to our benefit?
For the new issue of “Portal Wissen”, we looked around at the university and interviewed researchers about the role that the connection between digitalization and learning plays in the research of various disciplines. We spoke to Katharina Scheiter, Professor of Digital Education, about the future of German schools and had several experts show us examples of how digital tools can improve learning in schools. We also talked to computer science and agricultural researchers about how even experienced farmers can still learn a lot about their land and their work thanks to digital tools. We spoke to educational researchers who are using big data to analyze how boys and girls learn and what the possible causes for differences are. Education and political scientist Nina Kolleck, on the other hand, looks at education against the backdrop of globalization and relies on the analysis of large amounts of social media data.
Of course, we don’t lose sight of the diversity of research at the University of Potsdam. We learn, for example, what alternatives to antibiotics could soon be available. This magazine also looks at stress and how it makes us ill as well as the research into sustainable ore extraction.
A new feature of our magazine is a whole series of shorter articles that invite you to browse and read: from research news and photographic insights into laboratories to simple explanations of complex phenomena and outlooks into the wider world of research to a small scientific utopia and a personal thanks to research. All this in the name of education, of course. Enjoy your read!
In response to mounting evidence of harm inflicted on irregular migrants along their journeys from West Africa to Europe, international organizations, civil society organizations, and governments have scaled up campaigns as a tool for raising awareness about the risks of irregular migration. Campaigns aim to counter misinformation by smugglers and facilitate safe migration decisions. Despite the growing number of interventions, there is limited empirical evidence on the impact and effectiveness of such campaigns. Based on a difference-in-difference design, this study investigates the effect of a mobile cinema and community discussion intervention on the perceptions, knowledge, and intentions of potential irregular migrants in Northern Guinea in 2019. The results show that potential migrants who participated in events were significantly more likely to show awareness gains and less likely to report high intentions to migrate irregularly. While the relative importance of risk perceptions and their impact on migration flows remain unclear, the findings provide evidence supporting the assumption that risk awareness can be a relevant factor in the decision-making process of potential irregular migrants. While campaigns may be an effective tool in certain contexts, effect sizes highlight the need for policymakers to keep realistic expectations.