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- Institut für Physik und Astronomie (4907) (remove)
My thesis chiefly aims to shed light on the favourable properties of LHP semiconductors from the point of view of their electronic structure.
Currently, various hypotheses are circulating to explain the exceptionally favourable transport properties of LHPs. Seeking an explanation for the low non-radiative recombination rates and long carrier lifetimes is particularly interesting to the halide perovskites research community.
The first part of this work investigates the two main hypotheses that are believed to play a significant role: the existence of a giant Rashba effect and large polarons. The experimental method of ARPES is mainly applied to verify their credibility.
The first hypothesis presumes that a giant Rashba effect restricts the recombination losses of the charge carriers by making the band gap slightly indirect. The Rashba effect is based on a strong SOC that could appear in LHPs thanks to incorporating the heavy element Pb in their structure. Earlier experimental work had pointed out this effect at the VBM of a hybrid LHP as a viable explanation for the long lifetimes of the charge carriers.
My systematic ARPES studies on hybrid MAPbBr3 and spin-resolved ARPES studies on the inorganic CsPbBr3 disprove the presence of any Rashba effect in the VBM of the reported order of magnitude. Therefore, neither the spin texture nor an indirect band gap character at the VBM in the bulk or at the surface can explain the high efficiency of LHP. In case of existence, this effect is in terms of the Rashba parameter at least a factor of a hundred smaller than previously assumed.
The second hypothesis proposes large polaron formation in the electronic structure of LHPs and attributes it to their high defect tolerance and low non-radiative recombination rate. Because the perovskite structure consists of negative and positive ions, polarons of this kind can be expected due to the Coulomb interaction between carriers and the polar lattice at intermediate electron-phonon coupling strength. Their existence is proposed to screen the carriers and defects to avoid recombination and trapping, thus leading to long carrier lifetimes. ARPES results by one group supported this assumption, reporting a 50% effective mass enhancement over the theoretical effective mass for CsPbBr3 in the orthorhombic structure.
The current thesis examines this hypothesis experimentally by photon-energy-dependent ARPES spectra and theoretically by GW band calculations of CsPbBr3 perovskites. The investigation is based on the fact that a polaron contribution in charge transport can become evident by an increase of the effective mass as measured by ARPES over the calculated one without polaron effects. However, my experiments on crystalline CsPbBr3 did not imply a larger effective mass for which one could postulate large polarons. In fact, the effective masses determined from ARPES agree with that of theoretical predictions.
The second part of my thesis thoroughly investigates the possibility of spontaneously magnetizing LHPs by introducing Mn2+ ions. Mn doping was reported to cause ferromagnetism in one of the most common LHPs, MAPbI3, mediated by super-exchange. The current work investigates the magnetic properties of a wide concentration range of Mn-doped MAPbI3 and triple-cation films by XAS, XMCD, and SQUID measurements. Based on the XAS line shape and a sum-rule analysis of the XMCD spectra, a pure Mn2+ configuration has been confirmed. Negative Curie temperatures are extracted from fitting the magnetization with a Curie-Weiss law. However, a remanent magnetization, which would be an indication of the absence of ferromagnetism down to 2K. As far as the double exchange is concerned, the element-specific XAS excludes a sufficient amount of Mn3+ as a prerequisite for this mechanism. All the findings show no evidence of significant double exchange or ferromagnetism in Mn-doped LHPs. The magnetic behavior is paramagnetic rather than ferromagnetic.
In the dissertation's last chapter, orthorhombic features of CsPbBr3 are revealed by ARPES, including an extra VBM at the Γ-point. The VBM of CsPbBr3 shows a temperature-dependent splitting, which decreases by 190 meV between 38K and 300K and tracks a shift of a saddle point at the cubic M-point. It is possible to reproduce the energy shift using an atomic model with a larger unit cell for room temperature, allowing local inversion symmetry breaking. This indicates the importance of electric dipoles for the inorganic LHPs, which may contribute to their high efficiency by breaking inversion symmetry and a Berry-phase effect.
This thesis discusses heat and charge transport phenomena in single-crystalline Silicon penetrated by nanometer-sized pores, known as mesoporous Silicon (pSi). Despite the extensive attention given to it as a thermoelectric material of interest, studies on microscopic thermal and electronic transport beyond its macroscopic characterizations are rarely reported. In contrast, this work reports the interplay of both.
PSi samples synthesized by electrochemical anodization display a temperature dependence of specific heat 𝐶𝑝 that deviates from the characteristic 𝑇^3 behaviour (at 𝑇<50𝐾). A thorough analysis reveals that both 3D and 2D Einstein and Debye modes contribute to this specific heat. Additional 2D Einstein modes (~3 𝑚𝑒𝑉) agree reasonably well with the boson peak of SiO2 in pSi pore walls. 2D Debye modes are proposed to account for surface acoustic modes causing a significant deviation from the well-known 𝑇^3 dependence of 𝐶𝑝 at 𝑇<50𝐾.
A novel theoretical model gives insights into the thermal conductivity of pSi in terms of porosity and phonon scattering on the nanoscale. The thermal conductivity analysis utilizes the peculiarities of the pSi phonon dispersion probed by the inelastic neutron scattering experiments. A phonon mean-free path of around 10 𝑛𝑚 extracted from the presented model is proposed to cause the reduced thermal conductivity of pSi by two orders of magnitude compared to p-doped bulk Silicon. Detailed analysis indicates that compound averaging may cause a further 10-50% reduction. The percolation threshold of 65% for thermal conductivity of pSi samples is subsequently determined by employing theoretical effective medium models.
Temperature-dependent electrical conductivity measurements reveal a thermally activated transport process. A detailed analysis of the activation energy 𝐸𝐴𝜎 in the thermally activated transport exhibits a Meyer Neldel compensation rule between different samples that originates in multi-phonon absorption upon carrier transport. Activation energies 𝐸𝐴𝑆 obtained from temperature-dependent thermopower measurements provide further evidence for multi-phonon assisted hopping between localized states as a dominant charge transport mechanism in pSi, as they systematically differ from the determined 𝐸𝐴𝜎 values.
Control over spin and electronic structure of MoS₂ monolayer via interactions with substrates
(2023)
The molybdenum disulfide (MoS2) monolayer is a semiconductor with a direct bandgap while it is a robust and affordable material.
It is a candidate for applications in optoelectronics and field-effect transistors.
MoS2 features a strong spin-orbit coupling which makes its spin structure promising for acquiring the Kane-Mele topological concept with corresponding applications in spintronics and valleytronics.
From the optical point of view, the MoS2 monolayer features two valleys in the regions of K and K' points. These valleys are differentiated by opposite spins and a related valley-selective circular dichroism.
In this study we aim to manipulate the MoS2 monolayer spin structure in the vicinity of the K and K' points to explore the possibility of getting control over the optical and electronic properties.
We focus on two different substrates to demonstrate two distinct routes: a gold substrate to introduce a Rashba effect and a graphene/cobalt substrate to introduce a magnetic proximity effect in MoS2.
The Rashba effect is proportional to the out-of-plane projection of the electric field gradient. Such a strong change of the electric field occurs at the surfaces of a high atomic number materials and effectively influence conduction electrons as an in-plane magnetic field. A molybdenum and a sulfur are relatively light atoms, thus, similar to many other 2D materials, intrinsic Rashba effect in MoS2 monolayer is vanishing small. However, proximity of a high atomic number substrate may enhance Rashba effect in a 2D material as it was demonstrated for graphene previously.
Another way to modify the spin structure is to apply an external magnetic field of high magnitude (several Tesla), and cause a Zeeman splitting, the conduction electrons.
However, a similar effect can be reached via magnetic proximity which allows us to reduce external magnetic fields significantly or even to zero. The graphene on cobalt interface is ferromagnetic and stable for MoS2 monolayer synthesis. Cobalt is not the strongest magnet; therefore, stronger magnets may lead to more significant results.
Nowadays most experimental studies on the dichalcogenides (MoS2 included) are performed on encapsulated heterostructures that are produced by mechanical exfoliation.
While mechanical exfoliation (or scotch-tape method) allows to produce a huge variety of structures, the shape and the size of the samples as well as distance between layers in heterostructures are impossible to control reproducibly.
In our study we used molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) methods to synthesise both MoS2/Au(111) and MoS2/graphene/Co systems.
We chose to use MBE, as it is a scalable and reproducible approach, so later industry may adapt it and take over.
We used graphene/cobalt instead of just a cobalt substrate because direct contact of MoS2\ monolayer and a metallic substrate may lead to photoluminescence (PL) quenching in the metallic substrate. Graphene and hexagonal boron nitride monolayer are considered building blocks of a new generation of electronics also commonly used as encapsulating materials for PL studies. Moreover graphene is proved to be a suitable substrate for the MBE growth of transitional metal dichalcogenides (TMDCs).
In chapter 1,
we start with an introduction to TMDCs. Then we focus on MoS2 monolayer state of the art research in the fields of application scenario; synthesis approaches; electronic, spin, and optical properties; and interactions with magnetic fields and magnetic materials.
We briefly touch the basics of magnetism in solids and move on to discuss various magnetic exchange interactions and magnetic proximity effect.
Then we describe MoS2 optical properties in more detail. We start from basic exciton physics and its manifestation in the MoS2 monolayer. We consider optical selection rules in the MoS2 monolayer and such properties as chirality, spin-valley locking, and coexistence of bright and dark excitons.
Chapter 2 contains an overview of the employed surface science methods: angle-integrated, angle-resolved, and spin-resolved photoemission; low energy electron diffraction and scanning tunneling microscopy.
In chapter 3, we describe MoS2 monolayer synthesis details for two substrates: gold monocrystal with (111) surface and graphene on cobalt thin film with Co(111) surface orientation.
The synthesis descriptions are followed by a detailed characterisation of the obtained structures: fingerprints of MoS2 monolayer formation; MoS2 monolayer symmetry and its relation to the substrate below; characterisation of MoS2 monolayer coverage, domain distribution, sizes and shapes, and moire structures.
In chapter~4, we start our discussion with MoS2/Au(111) electronic and spin structure. Combining density functional theory computations (DFT) and spin-resolved photoemission studies, we demonstrate that the MoS2 monolayer band structure features an in-plane Rashba spin splitting. This confirms the possibility of MoS2 monolayer spin structure manipulation via a substrate.
Then we investigate the influence of a magnetic proximity in the MoS2/graphene/Co system on the MoS2 monolayer spin structure.
We focus our investigation on MoS2 high symmetry points: G and K.
First, using spin-resolved measurements, we confirm that electronic states are spin-split at the G point via a magnetic proximity effect. Second, combining spin-resolved measurements and DFT computations for MoS2 monolayer in the K point region, we demonstrate the appearance of a small in-plane spin polarisation in the valence band top and predict a full in-plane spin polarisation for the conduction band bottom.
We move forward discussing how these findings are related to the MoS2 monolayer optical properties, in particular the possibility of dark exciton observation. Additionally, we speculate on the control of the MoS2 valley energy via magnetic proximity from cobalt.
As graphene is spatially buffering the MoS2 monolayer from the Co thin film, we speculate on the role of graphene in the magnetic proximity transfer by replacing graphene with vacuum and other 2D materials in our computations.
We finish our discussion by investigating the K-doped MoS2/graphene/Co system and the influence of this doping on the electronic and spin structure as well as on the magnetic proximity effect.
In summary, using a scalable MBE approach we synthesised
MoS2/Au(111) and MoS2/graphene/Co systems. We found a Rashba effect taking place in MoS2/Au(111) which proves that the MoS2 monolayer in-plane spin structure can be modified. In MoS2/graphene/Co the in-plane magnetic proximity effect indeed takes place which rises the possibility of fine tuning the MoS2 optical properties via manipulation of the the substrate magnetisation.
Planets outside our solar system, so-called "exoplanets", can be detected with different methods, and currently more than 5000 exoplanets have been confirmed, according to NASA Exoplanet Archive. One major highlight of the studies on exoplanets in the past twenty years is the characterization of their atmospheres usingtransmission spectroscopy as the exoplanet transits. However, this characterization is a challenging process and sometimes there are reported discrepancies in the literature regarding the atmosphere of the same exoplanet. One potential reason for the observed atmospheric inconsistencies is called impact parameter degeneracy, and it is highly driven by the limb darkening effect of the host star. A brief introductionto those topics in presented in chapter 1, while the motivation and objectives of thiswork are described in chapter 2.The first goal is to clarify the origin of the transmission spectrum, which is anindicator of an exoplanet’s atmosphere; whether it is real or influenced by the impactparameter degeneracy. A second goal is to determine whether photometry from space using the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), could improve on the major parameters, which are responsible for the aforementioned degeneracy, of known exoplanetary systems. Three individual projects were conducted in order toaddress those goals. The three manuscripts are presented, in short, in the manuscriptoverview in chapter 3.More specifically, in chapter 4, the first manuscript is presented, which is an ex-tended investigation on the impact parameter degeneracy and its application onsynthetic transmission spectra. Evidently, the limb darkening of the host star isan important driver for this effect. It keeps the degeneracy persisting through different groups of exoplanets, based on the uncertainty of their impact parameter and on the type of their host star. The second goal, was addressed in the second and third manuscripts (chapter 5 and chapter 6 respectively). Using observationsfrom the TESS mission, two samples of exoplanets were studied; 10 transiting inflated hot-Jupiters and 43 transiting grazing systems. Potentially, the refinement or confirmation of their major system parameters’ measurements can assist in solving current or future discrepancies regarding their atmospheric characterization.In chapter 7 the conclusions of this work are discussed, while in chapter 8 itis proposed how TESS’s measurements can be able to discern between erroneousinterpretations of transmission spectra, especially on systems where the impact parameter degeneracy is likely not applicable.
Recurrences in past climates
(2023)
Our ability to predict the state of a system relies on its tendency to recur to states it has visited before. Recurrence also pervades common intuitions about the systems we are most familiar with: daily routines, social rituals and the return of the seasons are just a few relatable examples. To this end, recurrence plots (RP) provide a systematic framework to quantify the recurrence of states. Despite their conceptual simplicity, they are a versatile tool in the study of observational data. The global climate is a complex system for which an understanding based on observational data is not only of academical relevance, but vital for the predurance of human societies within the planetary boundaries. Contextualizing current global climate change, however, requires observational data far beyond the instrumental period. The palaeoclimate record offers a valuable archive of proxy data but demands methodological approaches that adequately address its complexities. In this regard, the following dissertation aims at devising novel and further developing existing methods in the framework of recurrence analysis (RA). The proposed research questions focus on using RA to capture scale-dependent properties in nonlinear time series and tailoring recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) to characterize seasonal variability in palaeoclimate records (‘Palaeoseasonality’).
In the first part of this thesis, we focus on the methodological development of novel approaches in RA. The predictability of nonlinear (palaeo)climate time series is limited by abrupt transitions between regimes that exhibit entirely different dynamical complexity (e.g. crossing of ‘tipping points’). These possibly depend on characteristic time scales. RPs are well-established for detecting transitions and capture scale-dependencies, yet few approaches have combined both aspects. We apply existing concepts from the study of self-similar textures to RPs to detect abrupt transitions, considering the most relevant time scales. This combination of methods further results in the definition of a novel recurrence based nonlinear dependence measure. Quantifying lagged interactions between multiple variables is a common problem, especially in the characterization of high-dimensional complex systems. The proposed ‘recurrence flow’ measure of nonlinear dependence offers an elegant way to characterize such couplings. For spatially extended complex systems, the coupled dynamics of local variables result in the emergence of spatial patterns. These patterns tend to recur in time. Based on this observation, we propose a novel method that entails dynamically distinct regimes of atmospheric circulation based on their recurrent spatial patterns. Bridging the two parts of this dissertation, we next turn to methodological advances of RA for the study of Palaeoseasonality. Observational series of palaeoclimate ‘proxy’ records involve inherent limitations, such as irregular temporal sampling. We reveal biases in the RQA of time series with a non-stationary sampling rate and propose a correction scheme.
In the second part of this thesis, we proceed with applications in Palaeoseasonality. A review of common and promising time series analysis methods shows that numerous valuable tools exist, but their sound application requires adaptions to archive-specific limitations and consolidating transdisciplinary knowledge. Next, we study stalagmite proxy records from the Central Pacific as sensitive recorders of mid-Holocene El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics. The records’ remarkably high temporal resolution allows to draw links between ENSO and seasonal dynamics, quantified by RA. The final study presented here examines how seasonal predictability could play a role for the stability of agricultural societies. The Classic Maya underwent a period of sociopolitical disintegration that has been linked to drought events. Based on seasonally resolved stable isotope records from Yok Balum cave in Belize, we propose a measure of seasonal predictability. It unveils the potential role declining seasonal predictability could have played in destabilizing agricultural and sociopolitical systems of Classic Maya populations.
The methodological approaches and applications presented in this work reveal multiple exciting future research avenues, both for RA and the study of Palaeoseasonality.
The Lyman-𝛼 (Ly𝛼) line commonly assists in the detection of high-redshift galaxies, the so-called Lyman-alpha emitters (LAEs). LAEs are useful tools to study the baryonic matter distribution of the high-redshift universe. Exploring their spatial distribution not only reveals the large-scale structure of the universe at early epochs, but it also provides an insight into the early formation and evolution of the galaxies we observe today. Because dark matter halos (DMHs) serve as sites of galaxy formation, the LAE distribution also traces that of the underlying dark matter. However, the details of this relation and their co-evolution over time remain unclear. Moreover, theoretical studies predict that the spatial distribution of LAEs also impacts their own circumgalactic medium (CGM) by influencing their extended Ly𝛼 gaseous halos (LAHs), whose origin is still under investigation. In this thesis, I make several contributions to improve the knowledge on these fields using samples of LAEs observed with the Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer (MUSE) at redshifts of 3 < 𝑧 < 6.
Stars under influence: evidence of tidal interactions between stars and substellar companions
(2023)
Tidal interactions occur between gravitationally bound astrophysical bodies. If their spatial separation is sufficiently small, the bodies can induce tides on each other, leading to angular momentum transfer and altering of evolutionary path the bodies would have followed if they were single objects. The tidal processes are well established in the Solar planet-moon systems and close stellar binary systems. However, how do stars behave if they are orbited by a substellar companion (e.g. a planet or a brown dwarf) on a tight orbit?
Typically, a substellar companion inside the corotation radius of a star will migrate toward the star as it loses orbital angular momentum. On the other hand, the star will gain angular momentum which has the potential to increase its rotation rate. The effect should be more pronounced if the substellar companion is more massive. As the stellar rotation rate and the magnetic activity level are coupled, the star should appear more magnetically active under the tidal influence of the orbiting substellar companion. However, the difficulty in proving that a star has a higher magnetic activity level due to tidal interactions lies in the fact that (I) substellar companions around active stars are easier to detect if they are more massive, leading to a bias toward massive companions around active stars and mimicking the tidal interaction effect, and that (II) the age of a main-sequence star cannot be easily determined, leaving the possibility that a star is more active due to its young age.
In our work, we overcome these issues by employing wide stellar binary systems where one star hosts a substellar companion, and where the other star provides the magnetic activity baseline for the host star, assuming they have coevolved, and thereby provides the host's activity level if tidal interactions have no effect on it. Firstly, we find that extrasolar planets can noticeably increase the host star's X-ray luminosity and that the effect is more pronounced if the exoplanet is at least Jupiter-like in mass and close to the star. Further, we find that a brown dwarf will have an even stronger effect, as expected, and that the X-ray surface flux difference between the host star and the wide stellar companion is a significant outlier when compared to a large sample of similar wide binary systems without any known substellar companions. This result proves that substellar hosting wide binary systems can be good tools to reveal the tidal effect on host stars, and also show that the typical stellar age indicators as activity or rotation cannot be used for these stars. Finally, knowing that the activity difference is a good tracer of the substellar companion's tidal impact, we develop an analytical method to calculate the modified tidal quality factor Q' of individual host stars, which defines the tidal dissipation efficiency in the convective envelope of a given main-sequence star.
Properties of Arctic aerosol in the transition between Arctic haze to summer season derived by lidar
(2023)
During the Arctic haze period, the Arctic troposphere consists of larger, yet fewer, aerosol particles than during the summer (Tunved et al., 2013; Quinn et al., 2007). Interannual variability (Graßl and Ritter, 2019; Rinke et al., 2004), as well as unknown origins (Stock et al., 2014) and properties of aerosol complicate modeling these annual aerosol cycles. This thesis investigates the modification of the microphysical properties of Arctic aerosols in the transition from Arctic haze to the summer season. Therefore, lidar measurements of Ny-Ålesund from April 2021 to the end of July 2021 are evaluated based on the aerosols’ optical properties. An overview of those properties will be provided. Furthermore, parallel radiosonde data is considered for indication of hygroscopic growth.
The annual aerosol cycle in 2021 differs from expectations based on previous studies from Tunved et al. (2013) and Quinn et al. (2007). Developments of backscatter, extinction, aerosol depolarisation, lidar ratio and color ratio show a return of the Arctic haze in May. The haze had already reduced in April, but regrew afterwards.
The average Arctic aerosol displays hygroscopic behaviour, meaning growth due to water uptake. To determine such a behaviour is generally laborious because various meteorological circumstances need to be considered. Two case studies provide further information on these possible events. In particular, a day with a rare ice cloud and with highly variable water cloud layers is observed.
Late-type stars are by far the most frequent stars in the universe and of fundamental interest to various fields of astronomy – most notably to Galactic archaeology and exoplanet research. However, such stars barely change during their main sequence lifetime; their temperature, luminosity, or chemical composition evolve only very slowly over the course of billions of years. As such, it is difficult to obtain the age of such a star, especially when it is isolated and no other indications (like cluster association) can be used. Gyrochronology offers a way to overcome this problem.
Stars, just like all other objects in the universe, rotate and the rate at which stars rotate impacts many aspects of their appearance and evolution. Gyrochronology leverages the observed rotation rate of a late-type main sequence star and its systematic evolution to estimate their ages. Unlike the above-mentioned parameters, the rotation rate of a main sequence star changes drastically throughout its main sequence lifetime; stars spin down. The youngest stars rotate every few hours, whereas much older stars rotate only about once a month, or – in the case of some late M-stars – once in a hundred days. Given that this spindown is systematic (with an additional mass dependence), it gave rise to the idea of using the observed rotation rate of a star (and its mass or a suitable proxy thereof) to estimate a star’s age. This has been explored widely in young stellar open clusters but remains essentially unconstrained for stars older than the sun, and K and M stars older than 1 Gyr.
This thesis focuses on the continued exploration of the spindown behavior to assess, whether gyrochronology remains applicable for stars of old ages, whether it is universal for late-type main sequence stars (including field stars), and to provide calibration mileposts for spindown models. To accomplish this, I have analyzed data from Kepler space telescope for the open clusters Ruprecht 147 (2.7 Gyr old) and M 67 (4 Gyr). Time series photometry data (light curves)
were obtained for both clusters during Kepler’s K2 mission. However, due to technical limitations and telescope malfunctions, extracting usable data from the K2 mission to identify (especially long) rotation periods requires extensive data preparation.
For Ruprecht 147, I have compiled a list of about 300 cluster members from the literature and adopted preprocessed light curves from the Kepler archive where available. They have been cleaned of the gravest of data artifacts but still contained systematics. After correcting them for said artifacts, I was able to identify rotation periods in 31 of them.
For M 67 more effort was taken. My work on Ruprecht 147 has shown the limitations imposed by the preselection of Kepler targets. Therefore, I adopted the time series full frame image directly and performed photometry on a much higher spatial resolution to be able to obtain data for as many stars as possible. This also means that I had to deal with the ubiquitous artifacts in Kepler data. For that, I devised a method that correlates the artificial flux variations with the ongoing drift of the telescope pointing in order to remove it. This process was a large success and I was able to create light curves whose quality match and even exceede those that were created by the Kepler mission – all while operating on higher spatial resolution and processing fainter stars. Ultimately, I was able to identify signs of periodic variability in the (created) light curves for 31 and 47 stars in Ruprecht 147 and M 67, respectively. My data connect well to bluer stars of cluster of the same age and extend for the first time to stars redder than early-K and older than 1 Gyr. The cluster data show a clear flattening in the distribution of Ruprecht 147 and even a downturn for M 67, resulting in a somewhat sinusoidal shape. With that, I have shown that the systematic spindown of stars continues at least until 4 Gyr and stars continue to live on a single surface in age-rotation periods-mass space which allows gyrochronology to be used at least up to that age. However, the shape of the spindown – as exemplified by the newly discovered sinusoidal shape of the cluster sequence – deviates strongly from the expectations.
I then compiled an extensive sample of rotation data in open clusters – very much including my own work – and used the resulting cluster skeleton (with each cluster forming a rip in color-rotation period-mass space) to investigate if field stars follow the same spindown as cluster stars. For the field stars, I used wide binaries, which – with their shared origin and coevality – are in a sense the smallest possible open clusters. I devised an empirical method to evaluate the consistency between the rotation rates of the wide binary components and found that the vast majority of them are in fact consistent with what is observed in open clusters. This leads me to conclude that gyrochronology – calibrated on open clusters – can be applied to determine the ages of field stars.
International migration has been an increasing phenomenon during the past decades and has involved all the regions of the globe. Together with fertility and mortality rates, net migration rates represent the components that fully define the demographic evolution of the population in a country. Therefore, being able to capture the patterns of international migration flows and to produce projections of how they might change in the future is of relevant importance for demographic studies and for designing policies informed on the potential scenarios. Existing forecasting methods do not account explicitly for the main drivers and processes shaping international migration flows: existing migrant communities at the destination country, termed diasporas, would reduce the costs of migration and facilitate the settling for new migrants, ultimately producing a positive feedback; accounting for the heterogeneity in the type of migration flows, e.g. return and transit Ćows, becomes critical in some specific bilateral migration channels; in low- to middle- income countries economic development could relax poverty constraint and result in an increase of emigration rates.
Economic conditions at both origin and destination are identified as major drivers of international migration. At the same time, climate change impacts have already appeared on natural and human-made systems such as the economic productivity. These economic impacts might have already produced a measurable effect on international migration flows. Studies that provide a quantification of the number of migration moves that might have been affected by climate change are usually specific to small regions, do not provide a mechanistic understanding of the pathway leading from climate change to migration and restrict their focus to the effective induced flows, disregarding the impact that climate change might have had in inhibiting other flows.
Global climate change is likely to produce impacts on the economic development of the countries during the next decades too. Understanding how these impacts might alter future global migration patterns is relevant for preparing future societies and understanding whether the response in migration flows would reduce or increase population's exposure to climate change impacts.
This doctoral research aims at investigating these questions and fill the research gaps outlined above. First, I have built a global bilateral international migration model which accounts explicitly for the diaspora feedback, distinguishes between transit and return flows, and accounts for the observed non-linear effects that link emigration rates to income levels in the country of origin. I have used this migration model within a population dynamic model where I account also for fertility and mortality rates, producing hindcasts and future projections of international migration flows, covering more than 170 countries. Results show that the model reproduces past patterns and trends well. Future projections highlight the fact that,depending on the assumptions regarding future evolution of income levels and between-country inequality, migration at the end of the century might approach net zero or be still high in many countries. The model, parsimonious in the explanatory variables that includes, represents a versatile tool for assessing the impacts of different socioeconomic scenarios on international migration.
I consider then a counterfactual past without climate change impacts on the economic productivity. By prescribing these counterfactual economic conditions to the migration model I produce counterfactual migration flows for the past 30 years. I compare the counterfactual migration flows to factual ones, where historical economic conditions are used to produce migration flows. This provides an estimation of the recent international migration flows attributed to climate change impacts. Results show that a counterfactual world without climate change would have seen less migration globally. This effect becomes larger if I consider separately the increase and decrease in migration moves: a Ągure of net change in the migration flows is not representative of the effective magnitude of the climate change impact on migration. Indeed, in my results climate change produces a divergent effect on richer and poorer countries: by slowing down the economic development, climate change might have reduced international mobility from and to countries of the Global South, and increased it from and to richer countries in the Global North.
I apply the same methodology to a scenario of future 3℃ global warming above pre-industrial conditions. I Ąnd that climate change impacts, acting by reorganizing the relative economic attractiveness of destination countries or by affecting the economic growth in the origin, might produce a substantial effect in international migration flows, inhibiting some moves and inducing others.
Overall my results suggest that climate change might have had and might have in the future a significant effect on global patterns of international migration. It also emerges clearly that, for a comprehensive understanding of the effects of climate change on international migration, we need to go beyond net effects and consider separately induced and inhibited flows.