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Private precaution is an important component in contemporary flood risk management and climate adaptation. However, quantitative knowledge about vulnerability reduction via private precautionary measures is scarce and their effects are hardly considered in loss modeling and risk assessments. However, this is a prerequisite to enable temporally dynamic flood damage and risk modeling, and thus the evaluation of risk management and adaptation strategies. To quantify the average reduction in vulnerability of residential buildings via private precaution empirical vulnerability data (n = 948) is used. Households with and without precautionary measures undertaken before the flood event are classified into treatment and nontreatment groups and matched. Postmatching regression is used to quantify the treatment effect. Additionally, we test state-of-the-art flood loss models regarding their capability to capture this difference in vulnerability. The estimated average treatment effect of implementing private precaution is between 11 and 15 thousand EUR per household, confirming the significant effectiveness of private precautionary measures in reducing flood vulnerability. From all tested flood loss models, the expert Bayesian network-based model BN-FLEMOps and the rule-based loss model FLEMOps perform best in capturing the difference in vulnerability due to private precaution. Thus, the use of such loss models is suggested for flood risk assessments to effectively support evaluations and decision making for adaptable flood risk management.
From dogmatic views on conservation agriculture adoption in Zambia towards adapting to context
(2018)
Conservation Agriculture (CA) has been widely promoted in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as a sustainable agricultural practice, yet with debatable success. Most authors assume successful adoption, only if all three principles of CA are implemented: (1) minimum or zero tillage, (2) maintenance of a permanent soil cover, and (3) integration of crop rotations. Based on this strict definition, adoption has declined or remained stagnant. Presently, not much attention has been given to context-suited adaptation possibilities, and partial adoption has not been recognized as an entry point to full adoption. Furthermore, isolated success cases have not been analysed sufficiently. By applying the QAToCA approach based on focus group discussions complemented by semi-structured qualitative expert and farmer interviews, we assessed the reasons behind positive CA adaptation and adoption trends in Zambia. Main reasons behind Zambia’s emerging success are (1) a positive institutional influence, (2) a systematic approach towards CA promotion – encouraging a stepwise adaptation and adoption, and (3) mobilization of strong marketing dynamics around CA. These findings could help to eventually adjust or redesign CA promotion activities. We argue for a careful shift from the ‘dogmatic view’ on adoption of CA as a packaged technology, towards adapting its principles to the small-scale farming context of SSA.
Schools as acculturative and developmental contexts for youth of immigrant and refugee background
(2018)
Schools are important for the academic and socio-emotional development, as well as acculturation of immigrant-and refugee-background youth. We highlight individual differences which shape their unique experiences, while considering three levels of the school context in terms of how they may affect adaptation outcomes: (1) interindividual interactions in the classroom (such as peer relations, student-teacher relations, teacher beliefs, and teaching practices), (2) characteristics of the classroom or school (such as ethnic composition and diversity climate), and (3) relevant school-and nation-level policies (such as diversity policies and school tracking). Given the complexity of the topic, there is a need for more research taking an integrated and interdisciplinary perspective to address migration related issues in the school context. Teacher beliefs and the normative climate in schools seem particularly promising points for intervention, which may be easier to change than structural aspects of the school context. More inclusive schools are also an important step toward more peaceful interethnic relations in diverse societies.
Epigenetic modifications, of which DNA methylation is the most stable, are a mechanism conveying environmental information to subsequent generations via parental germ lines. The paternal contribution to adaptive processes in the offspring might be crucial, but has been widely neglected in comparison to the maternal one. To address the paternal impact on the offspring’s adaptability to changes in diet composition, we investigated if low protein diet (LPD) in F0 males caused epigenetic alterations in their subsequently sired sons. We therefore fed F0 male Wild guinea pigs with a diet lowered in protein content (LPD) and investigated DNA methylation in sons sired before and after their father’s LPD treatment in both, liver and testis tissues. Our results point to a ‘heritable epigenetic response’ of the sons to the fathers’ dietary change. Because we detected methylation changes also in the testis tissue, they are likely to be transmitted to the F2 generation. Gene-network analyses of differentially methylated genes in liver identified main metabolic pathways indicating a metabolic reprogramming (‘metabolic shift’). Epigenetic mechanisms, allowing an immediate and inherited adaptation may thus be important for the survival of species in the context of a persistently changing environment, such as climate change.
Epigenetic modifications are a mechanism conveying environmental information to subsequent generations via parental germ lines. Research on epigenetic responses to environmental changes in wild mammals has been widely neglected, as well as studies that compare responses to changes in different environmental factors. Here, we focused on the transmission of DNA methylation changes to naive male offspring after paternal exposure to either diet (~40% less protein) or temperature increase (10 °C increased temperature). Because both experiments focused on the liver as the main metabolic and thermoregulation organ, we were able to decipher if epigenetic changes differed in response to different environmental changes. Reduced representation bisulfite sequencing (RRBS) revealed differentially methylated regions (DMRs) in annotated genomic regions in sons sired before (control) and after the fathers’ treatments. We detected both a highly specific epigenetic response dependent on the environmental factor that had changed that was reflected in genes involved in specific metabolic pathways, and a more general response to changes in outer stimuli reflected by epigenetic modifications in a small subset of genes shared between both responses. Our results indicated that fathers prepared their offspring for specific environmental changes by paternally inherited epigenetic modifications, suggesting a strong paternal contribution to adaptive processes.
There is growing empirical evidence that anthropogenic climate change will substantially affect the electric sector. Impacts will stem both from the supply sidethrough the mitigation of greenhouse gasesand from the demand sidethrough adaptive responses to a changing environment. Here we provide evidence of a polarization of both peak load and overall electricity consumption under future warming for the worlds third-largest electricity marketthe 35 countries of Europe. We statistically estimate country-level doseresponse functions between daily peak/total electricity load and ambient temperature for the period 2006-2012. After removing the impact of nontemperature confounders and normalizing the residual load data for each country, we estimate a common doseresponse function, which we use to compute national electricity loads for temperatures that lie outside each countrys currently observed temperature range. To this end, we impose end-of-century climate on todays European economies following three different greenhouse-gas concentration trajectories, ranging from ambitious climate-change mitigationin line with the Paris agreementto unabated climate change. We find significant increases in average daily peak load and overall electricity consumption in southern and western Europe (similar to 3 to similar to 7% for Portugal and Spain) and significant decreases in northern Europe (similar to-6 to similar to-2% for Sweden and Norway). While the projected effect on European total consumption is nearly zero, the significant polarization and seasonal shifts in peak demand and consumption have important ramifications for the location of costly peak-generating capacity, transmission infrastructure, and the design of energy-efficiency policy and storage capacity.
Adaptation to flood risk
(2017)
As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers of changes in risk is essential for effective adaptation. To gain more knowledge on the basis of empirical case studies, we analyze eight paired floods, that is, consecutive flood events that occurred in the same region, with the second flood causing significantly lower damage. These success stories of risk reduction were selected across different socioeconomic and hydro-climatic contexts. The potential of societies to adapt is uncovered by describing triggered societal changes, as well as formal measures and spontaneous processes that reduced flood risk. This novel approach has the potential to build the basis for an international data collection and analysis effort to better understand and attribute changes in risk due to hydrological extremes in the framework of the IAHSs Panta Rhei initiative. Across all case studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability, for example, via raised risk awareness, preparedness, and improvements of organizational emergency management. Thus, vulnerability reduction plays an essential role for successful adaptation. Our work shows that there is a high potential to adapt, but there remains the challenge to stimulate measures that reduce vulnerability and risk in periods in which extreme events do not occur.
Deciphering the genes involved in disease resistance is essential if we are to understand host-pathogen coevolutionary processes. The rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) was imported into Australia in 1995 as a biocontrol agent to manage one of the most successful and devastating invasive species, the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus). During the first outbreaks of the disease, RHDV caused mortality rates of up to 97%. Recently, however, increased genetic resistance to RHDV has been reported. Here, we have aimed to identify genomic differences between rabbits that survived a natural infection with RHDV and those that died in the field using a genomewide next-generation sequencing (NGS) approach. We detected 72 SNPs corresponding to 133 genes associated with survival of a RHD infection. Most of the identified genes have known functions in virus infections and replication, immune responses or apoptosis, or have previously been found to be regulated during RHD. Some of the genes identified in experimental studies, however, did not seem to play a role under natural selection regimes, highlighting the importance of field studies to complement the genomic background of wildlife diseases. Our study provides a set of candidate markers as a tool for the future scanning of wild rabbits for their resistance to RHDV. This is important both for wild rabbit populations in southern Europe where RHD is regarded as a serious problem decimating the prey of endangered predator species and for assessing the success of currently planned RHDV variant biocontrol releases in Australia.
We compiled global occurrence data sets of 13 congeneric sexual and apomictic species pairs, and used principal components analysis (PCA) and kernel smoothers to compare changes in climatic niche optima, breadths and unfilling/expansion between native and alien ranges. Niche change metrics were compared between sexual and apomictic species. All 26 species showed changes in niche optima and/or breadth and 14 species significantly expanded their climatic niches. However, we found no effect of the reproductive system on niche dynamics. Instead, species with narrower native niches showed higher rates of niche expansion in the alien ranges. Our results suggest that niche shifts are frequent in plant invasions but evolutionary potential may not be of major importance for such shifts. Niche dynamics rather appear to be driven by changes of the realized niche without adaptive change of the fundamental climatic niche.
Venomous snakes often display extensive variation in venom composition both between and within species. However, the mechanisms underlying the distribution of different toxins and venom types among populations and taxa remain insufficiently known. Rattlesnakes (Crotalus, Sistrurus) display extreme inter-and intraspecific variation in venom composition, centered particularly on the presence or absence of presynaptically neurotoxic phospholipases A2 such as Mojave toxin (MTX). Interspecific hybridization has been invoked as a mechanism to explain the distribution of these toxins across rattlesnakes, with the implicit assumption that they are adaptively advantageous. Here, we test the potential of adaptive hybridization as a mechanism for venom evolution by assessing the distribution of genes encoding the acidic and basic subunits of Mojave toxin across a hybrid zone between MTX-positive Crotalus scutulatus and MTX-negative C. viridis in southwestern New Mexico, USA. Analyses of morphology, mitochondrial and single copy-nuclear genes document extensive admixture within a narrow hybrid zone. The genes encoding the two MTX subunits are strictly linked, and found in most hybrids and backcrossed individuals, but not in C. viridis away from the hybrid zone. Presence of the genes is invariably associated with presence of the corresponding toxin in the venom. We conclude that introgression of highly lethal neurotoxins through hybridization is not necessarily favored by natural selection in rattlesnakes, and that even extensive hybridization may not lead to introgression of these genes into another species.