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Extreme Regenereignisse von kurzer Dauer im Bereich von Stunden und darunter rücken aufgrund der dadurch bedingten Schäden durch Sturzfluten und auch wegen ihrer möglichen Intensivierungen durch den anthropogenen Klimawandel immer stärker in den Fokus. Die vorliegende Studie untersucht auf Basis von teilweise sehr langen (> 50 Jahre) und zeitlich hochaufgelösten Zeitreihen (≤ 15 Minuten) mögliche Trends in Starkregenintensitäten für Stationen aus schweizerischen und österreichischen Alpenregionen sowie für das Emscher-Lippe-Gebiet in Nordrhein-Westfalen. Es wird deutlich, dass es eine Zunahme der extremen Niederschlagsintensitäten gibt, welche gut durch die Erwärmung des regionalen Klimas erklärt werden kann: Die Analysen langfristiger Trends der Überschreitungssummen und Wiederkehrniveaus zeigen zwar erhebliche Unsicherheiten, lassen jedoch eine Zunahme in einer Größenordnung von 30 % pro Jahrhundert erkennen. Zudem wird in diesem Beitrag, basierend auf einer "mittleren" Klimasimulation für das 21. Jahrhundert, für ausgewählte Stationen der Emscher-Lippe-Region eine Projektion für extreme Niederschlagsintensitäten in sehr hoher zeitlicher Auflösung beschrieben. Dabei wird ein gekoppeltes räumliches und zeitliches "Downscaling" angewendet, dessen entscheidende Neuerung die Berücksichtigung der Abhängigkeit der lokalen Regenintensität von der Lufttemperatur ist. Dieses Verfahren beinhaltet zwei Schritte: Zuerst werden großräumige Klimafelder in täglicher Auflösung durch Regression mit den Temperatur- und Niederschlagswerten der Stationen statistisch verbunden (räumliches Downscaling). Im zweiten Schritt werden dann diese Stationswerte mithilfe eines sogenannten multiplikativen stochastischen Kaskadenmodells (MC) auf eine zeitliche Auflösung von 10 Minuten disaggregiert (zeitliches Downscaling). Die neuartige, temperatursensitive Variante berücksichtigt zusätzlich die Lufttemperatur als erklärende Variable für die Niederschlagsintensitäten. Dadurch wird der mit einer Erwärmung zu erwartende höhere atmosphärische Feuchtegehalt, welcher sich aus der Clausius-Clapeyron-Beziehung (CC) ergibt, mit in das zeitliche Downscaling einbezogen.
Für die statistische Auswertung der extremen kurzfristigen Niederschläge wurden die oberen Quantile (99,9 %), Überschreitungssummen (ÜS, P > 5 mm) und 3-jährliche Wiederkehrniveaus (WN) einer Dauerstufe von ≤ 15-Minuten betrachtet. Diese Auswahl erlaubt die gleichzeitige Analyse sowohl von Extremwertstatistiken als auch von deren langfristigen Trends; leichte Abweichungen von dieser Wahl beeinflussen die Hauptergebnisse nur unwesentlich. Nur durch die Hinzunahme der Temperatur wird die beobachtete Temperaturabhängigkeit der extremen Quantile (CC-Scaling) gut wiedergegeben. Bei Vergleich von Beobachtungsdaten und Gegenwartssimulationen der Modellkaskade zeigt das temperatursensitive Verfahren konsistente Ergebnisse. Im Vergleich zu den Entwicklungen der letzten Jahrzehnte werden für die Zukunft ähnliche oder sogar noch stärkere Anstiege der extremen Niederschlagsintensitäten projiziert. Dies ist insofern bemerkenswert, als diese anscheinend hauptsächlich durch die örtliche Temperatur bestimmt werden, denn die projizierten Trends der Niederschlags-Tageswerte sind für diese Region vernachlässigbar.
Forests are a key resource serving a multitude of functions such as providing income to forest owners, supplying industries with timber, protecting water resources, and maintaining biodiversity. Recently much attention has been given to the role of forests in the global carbon cycle and their management for increased carbon sequestration as a possible mitigation option against climate change. Furthermore, the use of harvested wood can contribute to the reduction of atmospheric carbon through (i) carbon sequestration in wood products, (ii) the substitution of non-wood products with wood products, and (iii) through the use of wood as a biofuel to replace fossil fuels. Forest resource managers are challenged by the task to balance these multiple while simultaneously meeting economic requirements and taking into consideration the demands of stakeholder groups. Additionally, risks and uncertainties with regard to uncontrollable external variables such as climate have to be considered in the decision making process. In this study a scientific stakeholder dialogue with forest-related stakeholder groups in the Federal State of Brandenburg was accomplished. The main results of this dialogue were the definition of major forest functions (carbon sequestration, groundwater recharge, biodiversity, and timber production) and priority setting among them by the stakeholders using the pair-wise comparison technique. The impact of different forest management strategies and climate change scenarios on the main functions of forest ecosystems were evaluated at the Kleinsee management unit in south-east Brandenburg. Forest management strategies were simulated over 100 years using the forest growth model 4C and a wood product model (WPM). A current climate scenario and two climate change scenarios based on global circulation models (GCMs) HadCM2 and ECHAM4 were applied. The climate change scenario positively influenced stand productivity, carbon sequestration, and income. The impact on the other forest functions was small. Furthermore, the overall utility of forest management strategies were compared under the priority settings of stakeholders by a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) method. Significant differences in priority setting and the choice of an adequate management strategy were found for the environmentalists on one side and the more economy-oriented forest managers of public and private owned forests on the other side. From an ecological perspective, a conservation strategy would be preferable under all climate scenarios, but the business as usual management would also fit the expectations under the current climate. In contrast, a forest manager in public-owned forests or a private forest owner would prefer a management strategy with an intermediate thinning intensity and a high share of pine stands to enhance income from timber production while maintaining the other forest functions. The analysis served as an example for the combined application of simulation tools and a MCA method for the evaluation of management strategies under multi-purpose and multi-user settings with changing climatic conditions. Another focus was set on quantifying the overall effect of forest management on carbon sequestration in the forest sector and the wood industry sector plus substitution effects. To achieve this objective, the carbon emission reduction potential of material and energy substitution (Smat and Sen) was estimated based on a literature review. On average, for each tonne of dry wood used in a wood product substituting a non-wood product, 0.71 fewer tonnes of fossil carbon are emitted into to the atmosphere. Based on Smat and Sen, the calculation of the carbon emission reduction through substitution was implemented in the WPM. Carbon sequestration and substitution effects of management strategies were simulated at three local scales using the WPM and the forest growth models 4C (management unit level) or EFISCEN (federal state of Brandenburg and Germany). An investigation was conducted on the influence of uncertainties in the initialisation of the WPM, Smat, and basic conditions of the wood product sector on carbon sequestration. Results showed that carbon sequestration in the wood industry sector plus substitution effects exceeded sequestration in the forest sector. In contrast to the carbon pools in the forest sector, which acted as sink or source, the substitution effects continually reduced carbon emission as long as forests are managed and timber is harvested. The main climate protection function was investigated for energy substitution which accounted for about half of the total carbon sequestration, followed by carbon storage in landfills. In Germany, the absolute annual carbon sequestration in the forest and wood industry sector plus substitution effects was 19.9 Mt C. Over 50 years the wood industry sector contributed 70% of the total carbon sequestration plus substitution effects.
Sustainable management of semi-arid African savannas under environmental and political change
(2012)
Drylands cover about 40% of the earth’s land surface and provide the basis for the livelihoods of 38% of the global human population. Worldwide, these ecosystems are prone to heavy degradation. Increasing levels of dryland degradation result a strong decline of ecosystem services. In addition, in highly variable semi-arid environments changing future environmental conditions will potentially have severe consequences for productivity and ecosystem dynamics. Hence, global efforts have to be made to understand the particular causes and consequences of dryland degradation and to promote sustainable management options for semi-arid and arid ecosystems in a changing world. Here I particularly address the problem of semi-arid savanna degradation, which mostly occurs in form of woody plant encroachment. At this, I aim at finding viable sustainable management strategies and improving the general understanding of semi-arid savanna vegetation dynamics under conditions of extensive livestock production. Moreover, the influence of external forces, i.e. environmental change and land reform, on the use of savanna vegetation and on the ecosystem response to this land use is assessed. Based on this I identify conditions and strategies that facilitate a sustainable use of semi-arid savanna rangelands in a changing world. I extended an eco-hydrological model to simulate rangeland vegetation dynamics for a typical semi-arid savanna in eastern Namibia. In particular, I identified the response of semi-arid savanna vegetation to different land use strategies (including fire management) also with regard to different predicted precipitation, temperature and CO2 regimes. Not only environmental but also economic and political constraints like e.g. land reform programmes are shaping rangeland management strategies. Hence, I aimed at understanding the effects of the ongoing process of land reform in southern Africa on land use and the semi-arid savanna vegetation. Therefore, I developed and implemented an agent-based ecological-economic modelling tool for interactive role plays with land users. This tool was applied in an interdisciplinary empirical study to identify general patterns of management decisions and the between-farm cooperation of land reform beneficiaries in eastern Namibia. The eco-hydrological simulations revealed that the future dynamics of semi-arid savanna vegetation strongly depend on the respective climate change scenario. In particular, I found that the capacity of the system to sustain domestic livestock production will strongly depend on changes in the amount and temporal distribution of precipitation. In addition, my simulations revealed that shrub encroachment will become less likely under future climatic conditions although positive effects of CO2 on woody plant growth and transpiration have been considered. While earlier studies predicted a further increase in shrub encroachment due to increased levels of atmospheric CO2, my contrary finding is based on the negative impacts of temperature increase on the drought sensitive seedling germination and establishment of woody plant species. Further simulation experiments revealed that prescribed fires are an efficient tool for semi-arid rangeland management, since they suppress woody plant seedling establishment. The strategies tested have increased the long term productivity of the savanna in terms of livestock production and decreased the risk for shrub encroachment (i.e. savanna degradation). This finding refutes the views promoted by existing studies, which state that fires are of minor importance for the vegetation dynamics of semi-arid and arid savannas. Again, the difference in predictions is related to the bottleneck at the seedling establishment stage of woody plants, which has not been sufficiently considered in earlier studies. The ecological-economic role plays with Namibian land reform beneficiaries showed that the farmers made their decisions with regard to herd size adjustments according to economic but not according to environmental variables. Hence, they do not manage opportunistically by tracking grass biomass availability but rather apply conservative management strategies with low stocking rates. This implies that under the given circumstances the management of these farmers will not per se cause (or further worsen) the problem of savanna degradation and shrub encroachment due to overgrazing. However, as my results indicate that this management strategy is rather based on high financial pressure, it is not an indicator for successful rangeland management. Rather, farmers struggle hard to make any positive revenue from their farming business and the success of the Namibian land reform is currently disputable. The role-plays also revealed that cooperation between farmers is difficult even though obligatory due to the often small farm sizes. I thus propose that cooperation needs to be facilitated to improve the success of land reform beneficiaries.
This contribution describes a generator of stochastic time series of daily precipitation for the interior of Israel from c. 90 to 900 mm mean annual precipitation (MAP) as a tool for studies of daily rain variability. The probability of rainfall on a given day of the year is described by a regular Gaussian peak curve function. The amount of rain is drawn randomly from an exponential distribution whose mean is the daily mean rain amount (averaged across years for each day of the year) described by a flattened Gaussian peak curve. Parameters for the curves have been calculated from monthly aggregated, long-term rain records from seven meteorological stations. Parameters for arbitrary points on the MAP gradient are calculated from a regression equation with MAP as the only independent variable. The simple structure of the generator allows it to produce time series with daily rain patterns that are projected under climate change scenarios and simultaneously control MAP. Increasing within-year variability of daily precipitation amounts also increases among-year variability of MAP as predicted by global circulation models. Thus, the time series incorporate important characteristics for climate change research and represent a flexible tool for simulations of daily vegetation or surface hydrology dynamics.
Stochastic information, to be understood as "information gained by the application of stochastic methods", is proposed as a tool in the assessment of changes in climate. This thesis aims at demonstrating that stochastic information can improve the consideration and reduction of uncertainty in the assessment of changes in climate. The thesis consists of three parts. In part one, an indicator is developed that allows the determination of the proximity to a critical threshold. In part two, the tolerable windows approach (TWA) is extended to a probabilistic TWA. In part three, an integrated assessment of changes in flooding probability due to climate change is conducted within the TWA. The thermohaline circulation (THC) is a circulation system in the North Atlantic, where the circulation may break down in a saddle-node bifurcation under the influence of climate change. Due to uncertainty in ocean models, it is currently very difficult to determine the distance of the THC to the bifurcation point. We propose a new indicator to determine the system's proximity to the bifurcation point by considering the THC as a stochastic system and using the information contained in the fluctuations of the circulation around the mean state. As the system is moved closer to the bifurcation point, the power spectrum of the overturning becomes "redder", i.e. more energy is contained in the low frequencies. Since the spectral changes are a generic property of the saddle-node bifurcation, the method is not limited to the THC, but it could also be applicable to other systems, e.g. transitions in ecosystems. In part two, a probabilistic extension to the tolerable windows approach (TWA) is developed. In the TWA, the aim is to determine the complete set of emission strategies that are compatible with so-called guardrails. Guardrails are limits to impacts of climate change or to climate change itself. Therefore, the TWA determines the "maneuvering space" humanity has, if certain impacts of climate change are to be avoided. Due to uncertainty it is not possible to definitely exclude the impacts of climate change considered, but there will always be a certain probability of violating a guardrail. Therefore the TWA is extended to a probabilistic TWA that is able to consider "probabilistic uncertainty", i.e. uncertainty that can be expressed as a probability distribution or uncertainty that arises through natural variability. As a first application, temperature guardrails are imposed, and the dependence of emission reduction strategies on probability distributions for climate sensitivities is investigated. The analysis suggests that it will be difficult to observe a temperature guardrail of 2°C with high probabilities of actually meeting the target. In part three, an integrated assessment of changes in flooding probability due to climate change is conducted. A simple hydrological model is presented, as well as a downscaling scheme that allows the reconstruction of the spatio-temporal natural variability of temperature and precipitation. These are used to determine a probabilistic climate impact response function (CIRF), a function that allows the assessment of changes in probability of certain flood events under conditions of a changed climate. The assessment of changes in flooding probability is conducted in 83 major river basins. Not all floods can be considered: Events that either happen very fast, or affect only a very small area can not be considered, but large-scale flooding due to strong longer-lasting precipitation events can be considered. Finally, the probabilistic CIRFs obtained are used to determine emission corridors, where the guardrail is a limit to the fraction of world population that is affected by a predefined shift in probability of the 50-year flood event. This latter analysis has two main results. The uncertainty about regional changes in climate is still very high, and even small amounts of further climate change may lead to large changes in flooding probability in some river systems.
Understanding the distribution of species is fundamental for biodiversity conservation, ecosystem management, and increasingly also for climate impact assessment. The presence of a species in a given site depends on physiological limitations (abiotic factors), interactions with other species (biotic factors), migratory or dispersal processes (site accessibility) as well as the continuing
effects of past events, e.g. disturbances (site legacy). Existing approaches to predict species distributions either (i) correlate observed species occurrences with environmental variables describing abiotic limitations, thus ignoring biotic interactions, dispersal and legacy effects (statistical species distribution model, SDM); or (ii) mechanistically model the variety of processes determining species distributions (process-based model, PBM). SDMs are widely used due to their easy applicability and ability to handle varied data qualities. But they fail to reproduce the dynamic response of species distributions to changing conditions. PBMs are expected to be superior in this respect, but they need very specific data unavailable for many species, and are often more complex and require more computational effort. More recently, hybrid models link the two approaches to combine their respective strengths.
In this thesis, I apply and compare statistical and process-based approaches to predict species distributions, and I discuss their respective limitations, specifically for applications in changing environments. Detailed analyses of SDMs for boreal tree species in Finland reveal that nonclimatic predictors - edaphic properties and biotic interactions - are important limitations at the treeline, contesting the assumption of unrestricted, climatically induced range expansion. While the estimated SDMs are successful within their training data range, spatial and temporal model transfer fails. Mapping and comparing sampled predictor space among data subsets identifies spurious extrapolation as the plausible explanation for limited model transferability. Using these findings, I analyze the limited success of an established PBM (LPJ-GUESS) applied to the same problem. Examination of process representation and parameterization in the PBM identifies implemented processes to adjust (competition between species, disturbance) and missing processes that are crucial in boreal forests (nutrient limitation, forest management). Based on climatic correlations shifting over time, I stress the restricted temporal transferability of bioclimatic limits used in LPJ-GUESS and similar PBMs. By critically assessing the performance of SDM and PBM in this application, I demonstrate the importance of understanding the limitations of the
applied methods.
As a potential solution, I add a novel approach to the repertoire of existing hybrid models. By simulation experiments with an individual-based PBM which reproduces community dynamics resulting from biotic factors, dispersal and legacy effects, I assess the resilience of coastal vegetation to abrupt hydrological changes. According to the results of the resilience analysis, I then modify temporal SDM predictions, thereby transferring relevant process detail from PBM to
SDM. The direction of knowledge transfer from PBM to SDM avoids disadvantages of current hybrid models and increases the applicability of the resulting model in long-term, large-scale applications. A further advantage of the proposed framework is its flexibility, as it is readily extended to other model types, disturbance definitions and response characteristics.
Concluding, I argue that we already have a diverse range of promising modelling tools at hand, which can be refined further. But most importantly, they need to be applied more thoughtfully. Bearing their limitations in mind, combining their strengths and openly reporting underlying assumptions and uncertainties is the way forward.
This dissertation investigates the impact of the economic and fiscal crisis starting in 2008 on EU climate policy-making. While the overall number of adopted greenhouse gas emission reduction policies declined in the crisis aftermath, EU lawmakers decided to introduce new or tighten existing regulations in some important policy domains. Existing knowledge about the crisis impact on EU legislative decision-making cannot explain these inconsistencies. In response, this study develops an actor-centred conceptual framework based on rational choice institutionalism that provides a micro-level link to explain how economic crises translate into altered policy-making patterns. The core theoretical argument draws on redistributive conflicts, arguing that tensions between ‘beneficiaries’ and ‘losers’ of a regulatory initiative intensify during economic crises and spill over to the policy domain. To test this hypothesis and using social network analysis, this study analyses policy processes in three case studies: The introduction of carbon dioxide emission limits for passenger cars, the expansion of the EU Emissions Trading System to aviation, and the introduction of a regulatory framework for biofuels. The key finding is that an economic shock causes EU policy domains to polarise politically, resulting in intensified conflict and more difficult decision-making. The results also show that this process of political polarisation roots in the industry that is the subject of the regulation, and that intergovernmental bargaining among member states becomes more important, but also more difficult in times of crisis.
Semi-empirical sea-level models (SEMs) exploit physically motivated empirical relationships between global sea level and certain drivers, in the following global mean temperature. This model class evolved as a supplement to process-based models (Rahmstorf (2007)) which were unable to fully represent all relevant processes. They thus failed to capture past sea-level change (Rahmstorf et al. (2012)) and were thought likely to underestimate future sea-level rise. Semi-empirical models were found to be a fast and useful tool for exploring the uncertainties in future sea-level rise, consistently giving significantly higher projections than process-based models.
In the following different aspects of semi-empirical sea-level modelling have been studied. Models were first validated using various data sets of global sea level and temperature. SEMs were then used on the glacier contribution to sea level, and to infer past global temperature from sea-level data via inverse modelling. Periods studied encompass the instrumental period, covered by tide gauges (starting 1700 CE (Common Era) in Amsterdam) and satellites (first launched in 1992 CE), the era from 1000 BCE (before CE) to present, and the full length of the Holocene (using proxy data). Accordingly different data, model formulations and implementations have been used. It could be shown in Bittermann et al. (2013) that SEMs correctly predict 20th century sea-level when calibrated with data until 1900 CE. SEMs also turned out to give better predictions than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th assessment report (AR4, IPCC (2007)) models, for the period from 1961–2003 CE.
With the first multi-proxy reconstruction of global sea-level as input, estimate of the human-induced component of modern sea-level change and projections of future sea-level rise were calculated (Kopp et al. (2016)). It turned out with 90% confidence that more than 40 % of the observed 20th century sea-level rise is indeed anthropogenic. With the new semi-empirical and IPCC (2013) 5th assessment report (AR5) projections the gap between SEM and process-based model projections closes, giving higher credibility to both. Combining all scenarios, from strong mitigation to business as usual, a global sea-level rise of 28–131 cm relative to 2000 CE, is projected with 90% confidence. The decision for a low carbon pathway could halve the expected global sea-level rise by 2100 CE.
Present day temperature and thus sea level are driven by the globally acting greenhouse-gas forcing. Unlike that, the Milankovich forcing, acting on Holocene timescales, results mainly in a northern-hemisphere temperature change. Therefore a semi-empirical model can be driven with northernhemisphere temperatures, which makes it possible to model the main subcomponent of sea-level change over this period. It showed that an additional positive constant rate of the order of the estimated Antarctic sea-level contribution is then required to explain the sea-level evolution over the Holocene. Thus the global sea level, following the climatic optimum, can be interpreted as the sum of a temperature induced sea-level drop and a positive long-term contribution, likely an ongoing response to deglaciation coming from Antarctica.
Rainfall, snow-, and glacial melt throughout the Himalaya control river discharge, which is vital for maintaining agriculture, drinking water and hydropower generation. However, the spatiotemporal contribution of these discharge components to Himalayan rivers is not well understood, mainly because of the scarcity of ground-based observations. Consequently, there is also little known about the triggers and sources of peak sediment flux events, which account for extensive hydropower reservoir filling and turbine abrasion. We therefore lack basic information on the distribution of water resources and controls of erosion processes. In this thesis, I employ various methods to assess and quantify general characteristics of and links between precipitation, river discharge, and sediment flux in the Sutlej Valley. First, I analyze daily precipitation data (1998-2007) from 80 weather stations in the western Himalaya, to decipher the distribution of rain- and snowfall. Rainfall magnitude frequency analyses indicate that 40% of the summer rainfall budget is attributed to monsoonal rainstorms, which show higher variability in the orogenic interior than in frontal regions. Combined analysis of rainstorms and sediment flux data of a major Sutlej River tributary indicate that monsoonal rainfall has a first order control on erosion processes in the orogenic interior, despite the dominance of snowfall in this region. Second, I examine the contribution of rainfall, snow and glacial melt to river discharge in the Sutlej Valley (s55,000 km2), based on a distributed hydrological model, which covers the period 2000-2008. To achieve high spatial and daily resolution despite limited ground-based observations the hydrological model is forced by daily remote sensing data, which I adjusted and calibrated with ground station data. The calibration shows that the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 rainfall product systematically overestimates rainfall in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing with aridity. The model results indicate that snowmelt-derived discharge (74%) is most important during the pre-monsoon season (April to June) whereas rainfall (56%) and glacial melt (17%) dominate the monsoon season (July-September). Therefore, climate change most likely causes a reduction in river discharge during the pre-monsoon season, which especially affects the orogenic interior. Third, I investigate the controls on suspended sediment flux in different parts of the Sutlej catchments, based on daily gauging data from the past decade. In conjunction with meteorological data, earthquake records, and rock strength measurements I find that rainstorms are the most frequent trigger of high-discharge events with peaks in suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) that account for the bulk of the suspended sediment flux. The suspended sediment flux increases downstream, mainly due to increases in runoff. Pronounced erosion along the Himalayan Front occurs throughout the monsoon season, whereas efficient erosion of the orogenic interior is confined to single extreme events. The results of this thesis highlight the importance of snow and glacially derived melt waters in the western Himalaya, where extensive regions receive only limited amounts of monsoonal rainfall. These regions are therefore particularly susceptible to global warming with major implications on the hydrological cycle. However, the sediment discharge data show that infrequent monsoonal rainstorms that pass the orographic barrier of the Higher Himalaya are still the primary trigger of the highest-impact erosion events, despite being subordinate to snow and glacially–derived discharge. These findings may help to predict peak sediment flux events and could underpin the strategic development of preventative measures for hydropower infrastructures.
Extreme weather events like heatwaves and floods severely affect societies with impacts ranging from economic damages to losses in human lifes. Global warming caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase their frequency and intensity, particularly in the warm season. Next to these thermodynamic changes, climate change might also impact the large scale atmospheric circulation.Such dynamic changes might additionally act on the occurence of extreme weather events, but involved mechanisms are often highly non-linear. Therefore, large uncertainty exists on the exact nature of these changes and the related risks to society. Particularly in the densely populated mid-latitudes weather patterns are governed by the large scale circulation like the jet-streams and storm tracks. Extreme weather in this region is often related to persistent weather systems associated with a strongly meandering jet-stream. Such meanders are called Rossby waves. Under specific conditions they can become slow moving, stretched around the entire hemisphere and generate simultaneaous heat- and rainfall extremes in far-away regions.
This thesis aims at enhancing the understanding of synoptic-scale, circumglobal Rossby waves and the associated risks of dynamical changes to society. More specific, the analyses investigate their relation to extreme weather, regions at risk, under which conditions they are generated, and the influence of anthropogenic climate change on those conditions now, in the past and in the future.
I find that circumglobal Rossby waves promoted simultaneous occuring weather extremes across the northern hemisphere in several recent summers. Further, I present evidence that they are often linked to quasiresonant-amplification of planetary waves. These events include the 2003 European heatwave and the Moscow heatwave of 2010. This non-linear mechanism acts on the upper level flow through trapping and amplification of stationary synoptic scale waves. I show that this resonance mechanism acts in both hemispheres and is related to extreme weather. A main finding is that circumglobal Rossby waves primarily occur as two specific teleconnection patterns associated with a wave 5 and wave 7 pattern in the northern hemisphere, likely due to the favourable longitudinal distance of prominent mountain ridges here. Furthermore, I identify those regions which are particularly at risk: The central United States, western Europe and the Ukraine/Russian region. Moreover, I present evidence that the wave 7 pattern has and extreme weather in these regions. My results suggest that the increase in frequency can be linked to favourable changes in large scale temperature gradients, which I show to be largely underestimated by model simulations. Using surface temperature fingerprint as proxy for investigating historic and future model ensembles, evidence is presented that anthropogenic warming has likely increased the probability for the occurence of circumglobal Rossby waves. Further it is shown that this might lead to a doubling of such events until the end of the century under a high-emission scenario.
Overall, this thesis establishes several atmosphere-dynamical pathways by which changes in large scale temperature gradients might link to persistent boreal summer weather. It highlights the societal risks associated with the increasing occurence of a newly discovered Rossby wave teleconnection pattern, which has the potential to cause simultaneaous heat-extremes in the mid-latitudinal bread-basket regions. In addition, it provides further evidence that the traditional picture by which quasi-stationary Rossby waves occur only in the low wavenumber regime, should be reconsidered.