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Die Bienaymé-Galton-Watson Prozesse können für die Untersuchung von speziellen und sich entwickelnden Populationen verwendet werden. Die Populationen umfassen Individuen, welche sich identisch, zufällig, selbstständig und unabhängig voneinander fortpflanzen und die jeweils nur eine Generation existieren. Die n-te Generation ergibt sich als zufällige Summe der Individuen der (n-1)-ten Generation. Die Relevanz dieser Prozesse begründet sich innerhalb der Historie und der inner- und außermathematischen Bedeutung. Die Geschichte der Bienaymé-Galton-Watson-Prozesse wird anhand der Entwicklung des Konzeptes bis heute dargestellt. Dabei werden die Wissenschaftler:innen verschiedener Disziplinen angeführt, die Erkenntnisse zu dem Themengebiet beigetragen und das Konzept in ihren Fachbereichen angeführt haben. Somit ergibt sich die außermathematische Signifikanz. Des Weiteren erhält man die innermathematische Bedeutsamkeit mittels des Konzeptes der Verzweigungsprozesse, welches auf die Bienaymé-Galton-Watson Prozesse zurückzuführen ist. Die Verzweigungsprozesse stellen eines der aussagekräftigsten Modelle für die Beschreibung des Populationswachstums dar. Darüber hinaus besteht die derzeitige Wichtigkeit durch die Anwendungsmöglichkeit der Verzweigungsprozesse und der Bienaymé-Galton-Watson Prozesse innerhalb der Epidemiologie. Es werden die Ebola- und die Corona-Pandemie als Anwendungsfelder angeführt. Die Prozesse dienen als Entscheidungsstütze für die Politik und ermöglichen Aussagen über die Auswirkungen von Maßnahmen bezüglich der Pandemien. Neben den Prozessen werden ebenfalls der bedingte Erwartungswert bezüglich diskreter Zufallsvariablen, die wahrscheinlichkeitserzeugende Funktion und die zufällige Summe eingeführt. Die Konzepte vereinfachen die Beschreibung der Prozesse und bilden somit die Grundlage der Betrachtungen. Außerdem werden die benötigten und weiterführenden Eigenschaften der grundlegenden Themengebiete und der Prozesse aufgeführt und bewiesen. Das Kapitel erreicht seinen Höhepunkt bei dem Beweis des Kritikalitätstheorems, wodurch eine Aussage über das Aussterben des Prozesses in verschiedenen Fällen und somit über die Aussterbewahrscheinlichkeit getätigt werden kann. Die Fälle werden anhand der zu erwartenden Anzahl an Nachkommen eines Individuums unterschieden. Es zeigt sich, dass ein Prozess bei einer zu erwartenden Anzahl kleiner gleich Eins mit Sicherheit ausstirbt und bei einer Anzahl größer als Eins, die Population nicht in jedem Fall aussterben muss. Danach werden einzelne Beispiele, wie der linear fractional case, die Population von Fibroblasten (Bindegewebszellen) von Mäusen und die Entstehungsfragestellung der Prozesse, angeführt. Diese werden mithilfe der erlangten Ergebnisse untersucht und einige ausgewählte zufällige Dynamiken werden im nachfolgenden Kapitel simuliert. Die Simulationen erfolgen durch ein in Python erstelltes Programm und werden mithilfe der Inversionsmethode realisiert. Die Simulationen stellen beispielhaft die Entwicklungen in den verschiedenen Kritikalitätsfällen der Prozesse dar. Zudem werden die Häufigkeiten der einzelnen Populationsgrößen in Form von Histogrammen angebracht. Dabei lässt sich der Unterschied zwischen den einzelnen Fällen bestätigen und es wird die Anwendungsmöglichkeit der Bienaymé-Galton-Watson Prozesse bei komplexeren Problemen deutlich. Histogramme bekräftigen, dass die einzelnen Populationsgrößen nur endlich oft vorkommen. Diese Aussage wurde von Galton aufgeworfen und in der Extinktions-Explosions-Dichotomie verwendet. Die dargestellten Erkenntnisse über das Themengebiet und die Betrachtung des Konzeptes werden mit einer didaktischen Analyse abgeschlossen. Die Untersuchung beinhaltet die Berücksichtigung der Fundamentalen Ideen, der Fundamentalen Ideen der Stochastik und der Leitidee „Daten und Zufall“. Dabei ergibt sich, dass in Abhängigkeit der gewählten Perspektive die Anwendung der Bienaymé-Galton-Watson Prozesse innerhalb der Schule plausibel ist und von Vorteil für die Schüler:innen sein kann. Für die Behandlung wird exemplarisch der Rahmenlehrplan für Berlin und Brandenburg analysiert und mit dem Kernlehrplan Nordrhein-Westfalens verglichen. Die Konzeption des Lehrplans aus Berlin und Brandenburg lässt nicht den Schluss zu, dass die Bienaymé-Galton-Watson Prozesse angewendet werden sollten. Es lässt sich feststellen, dass die zugrunde liegende Leitidee nicht vollumfänglich mit manchen Fundamentalen Ideen der Stochastik vereinbar ist. Somit würde eine Modifikation hinsichtlich einer stärkeren Orientierung des Lehrplans an den Fundamentalen Ideen die Anwendung der Prozesse ermöglichen. Die Aussage wird durch die Betrachtung und Übertragung eines nordrhein-westfälischen Unterrichtsentwurfes für stochastische Prozesse auf die Bienaymé-Galton-Watson Prozesse unterstützt. Darüber hinaus werden eine Concept Map und ein Vernetzungspentagraph nach von der Bank konzipiert um diesen Aspekt hervorzuheben.
The Epoch of Reionization marks after recombination the second major change in the ionization state of the universe, going from a neutral to an ionized state. It starts with the appearance of the first stars and galaxies; a fraction of high-energy photons emitted from galaxies permeate into the intergalactic medium (IGM) and gradually ionize the hydrogen, until the IGM is completely ionized at z~6 (Fan et al., 2006). While the progress of reionization is driven by galaxy evolution, it changes the ionization and thermal state of the IGM substantially and affects subsequent structure and galaxy formation by various feedback mechanisms.
Understanding this interaction between reionization and galaxy formation is further impeded by a lack of understanding of the high-redshift galactic properties such as the dust distribution and the escape fraction of ionizing photons. Lyman Alpha Emitters (LAEs) represent a sample of high-redshift galaxies that are sensitive to all these galactic properties and the effects of reionization.
In this thesis we aim to understand the progress of reionization by performing cosmological simulations, which allows us to investigate the limits of constraining reionization by high-redshift galaxies as LAEs, and examine how galactic properties and the ionization state of the IGM affect the visibility and observed quantities of LAEs and Lyman Break galaxies (LBGs).
In the first part of this thesis we focus on performing radiative transfer calculations to simulate reionization. We have developed a mapping-sphere-scheme, which, starting from spherically averaged temperature and density fields, uses our 1D radiative transfer code and computes the effect of each source on the IGM temperature and ionization (HII, HeII, HeIII) profiles, which are subsequently mapped onto a grid. Furthermore we have updated the 3D Monte-Carlo radiative transfer pCRASH, enabling detailed reionization simulations which take individual source characteristics into account.
In the second part of this thesis we perform a reionization simulation by post-processing a smoothed-particle hydrodynamical (SPH) simulation (GADGET-2) with 3D radiative transfer (pCRASH), where the ionizing sources are modelled according to the characteristics of the stellar populations in the hydrodynamical simulation. Following the ionization fractions of hydrogen (HI) and helium (HeII, HeIII), and temperature in our simulation, we find that reionization starts at z~11 and ends at z~6, and high density regions near sources are ionized earlier than low density regions far from sources.
In the third part of this thesis we couple the cosmological SPH simulation and the radiative transfer simulations with a physically motivated, self-consistent model for LAEs, in order to understand the importance of the ionization state of the IGM, the escape fraction of ionizing photons from galaxies and dust in the interstellar medium (ISM) on the visibility of LAEs. Comparison of our models results with the LAE Lyman Alpha (Lya) and UV luminosity functions at z~6.6 reveals a three-dimensional degeneracy between the ionization state of the IGM, the ionizing photons escape fraction and the ISM dust distribution, which implies that LAEs act not only as tracers of reionization but also of the ionizing photon escape fraction and of the ISM dust distribution. This degeneracy does not even break down when we compare simulated with observed clustering of LAEs at z~6.6. However, our results show that reionization has the largest impact on the amplitude of the LAE angular correlation functions, and its imprints are clearly distinguishable from those of properties on galactic scales. These results show that reionization cannot be constrained tightly by exclusively using LAE observations. Further observational constraints, e.g. tomographies of the redshifted hydrogen 21cm line, are required.
In addition we also use our LAE model to probe the question when a galaxy is visible as a LAE or a LBG. Within our model galaxies above a critical stellar mass can produce enough luminosity to be visible as a LBG and/or a LAE. By finding an increasing duty cycle of LBGs with Lya emission as the UV magnitude or stellar mass of the galaxy rises, our model reveals that the brightest (and most massive) LBGs most often show Lya emission.
Predicting the Lya equivalent width (Lya EW) distribution and the fraction of LBGs showing Lya emission at z~6.6, we reproduce the observational trend of the Lya EWs with UV magnitude. However, the Lya EWs of the UV brightest LBGs exceed observations and can only be reconciled by accounting for an increased Lya attenuation of massive galaxies, which implies that the observed Lya brightest LAEs do not necessarily coincide with the UV brightest galaxies. We have analysed the dependencies of LAE observables on the properties of the galactic and intergalactic medium and the LAE-LBG connection, and this enhances our understanding of the nature of LAEs.
A polymer is a large molecule made up of many elementary chemical units, joined together by covalent bonds (for example, polyethylene). Polyelectrolytes (PELs) are polymer chains containing a certain amount of ionizable monomers. With their specific properties PELs acquire big importance in molecular and cell biology as well as in technology. Compared to neutral polymers the theory of PELs is less understood. In particular, this is valid for PELs in poor solvents. A poor solvent environment causes an effective attraction between monomers. Hence, for PELs in a poor solvent, there occurs a competition between attraction and repulsion. Strong or quenched PELs are completely dissociated at any accessible pH. The position of charges along the chain is fixed by chemical synthesis. On the other hand, in weak or annealed PELs dissociation of charges depends on solution pH. For the first time the simulation results have given direct evidence that at rather poor solvents an annealed PEL indeed undergoes a first-order phase transition when the chemical potential (solution pH) reaches at a certain value. The discontinuous transition occurs between a weakly charged compact globular structure and a strongly charged stretched configuration. At not too poor solvents theory predicts that globule would become unstable with respect to the formation of pearl-necklaces. The results show that pearl-necklaces exist in annealed PELs indeed. Furthermore, as predicted by theory, the simulation results have shown that annealed PELs display a sharp transition from a highly charged stretched state to a weakly charged globule at a critical salt concentration.
In many procedures of seismic risk mitigation, ground motion simulations are needed to test systems or improve their effectiveness. For example they may be used to estimate the level of ground shaking caused by future earthquakes. Good physical models for ground motion simulation are also thought to be important for hazard assessment, as they could close gaps in the existing datasets. Since the observed ground motion in nature shows a certain variability, part of which cannot be explained by macroscopic parameters such as magnitude or position of an earthquake, it would be desirable that a good physical model is not only able to produce one single seismogram, but also to reveal this natural variability.
In this thesis, I develop a method to model realistic ground motions in a way that is computationally simple to handle, permitting multiple scenario simulations. I focus on two aspects of ground motion modelling. First, I use deterministic wave propagation for the whole frequency range – from static deformation to approximately 10 Hz – but account for source variability by implementing self-similar slip distributions and rough fault interfaces. Second, I scale the source spectrum so that the modelled waveforms represent the correct radiated seismic energy. With this scaling I verify whether the energy magnitude is suitable as an explanatory variable, which characterises the amount of energy radiated at high frequencies – the advantage of the energy magnitude being that it can be deduced from observations, even in real-time.
Applications of the developed method for the 2008 Wenchuan (China) earthquake, the 2003 Tokachi-Oki (Japan) earthquake and the 1994 Northridge (California, USA) earthquake show that the fine source discretisations combined with the small scale source variability ensure that high frequencies are satisfactorily introduced, justifying the deterministic wave propagation approach even at high frequencies. I demonstrate that the energy magnitude can be used to calibrate the high-frequency content in ground motion simulations.
Because deterministic wave propagation is applied to the whole frequency range, the simulation method permits the quantification of the variability in ground motion due to parametric uncertainties in the source description. A large number of scenario simulations for an M=6 earthquake show that the roughness of the source as well as the distribution of fault dislocations have a minor effect on the simulated variability by diminishing directivity effects, while hypocenter location and rupture velocity more strongly influence the variability. The uncertainty in energy magnitude, however, leads to the largest differences of ground motion amplitude between different events, resulting in a variability which is larger than the one observed.
For the presented approach, this dissertation shows (i) the verification of the computational correctness of the code, (ii) the ability to reproduce observed ground motions and (iii) the validation of the simulated ground motion variability. Those three steps are essential to evaluate the suitability of the method for means of seismic risk mitigation.
Predicting Paris: Multi-Method Approaches to Forecast the Outcomes of Global Climate Negotiations
(2016)
We examine the negotiations held under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change in Paris, December 2015. Prior to these negotiations, there was considerable uncertainty about whether an agreement would be reached, particularly given that the world’s leaders failed to do so in the 2009 negotiations held in Copenhagen. Amid this uncertainty, we applied three different methods to predict the outcomes: an expert survey and two negotiation simulation models, namely the Exchange Model and the Predictioneer’s Game. After the event, these predictions were assessed against the coded texts that were agreed in Paris. The evidence suggests that combining experts’ predictions to reach a collective expert prediction makes for significantly more accurate predictions than individual experts’ predictions. The differences in the performance between the two different negotiation simulation models were not statistically significant.
Klossowski, who had originally started as a religious seeker of truth in his younger years, will – after his « reversal » – feel himself invested with the role of a « heretic » struggling with the libidinous search for truth. Even as the creator of a perverted metaphysics, he remains a seeker of the revelation of being, now in the role of the divine « adversary » who, thrown back on himself, tends to imitate a religious mystic. The divine is replaced by the whispers of the demon, which Klossowski experiences as « la complicité d'une force "démonique" » in the creation of his artworks. The Diana myth becomes a parable for the act of artistic creation. Sexuality, understood as the primordial ground of creative force that shapes the signe unique, the phantasm, shifts metaphysics to « phantasmaphysics » (Foucault), in which the mystery of the divine is exposed as a delusion (Wahnbild).
In dieser Arbeit werden nichtlineare Kopplungsmechanismen von akustischen Oszillatoren untersucht, die zu Synchronisation führen können. Aufbauend auf die Fragestellungen vorangegangener Arbeiten werden mit Hilfe theoretischer und experimenteller Studien sowie mit Hilfe numerischer Simulationen die Elemente der Tonentstehung in der Orgelpfeife und die Mechanismen der gegenseitigen Wechselwirkung von Orgelpfeifen identifiziert. Daraus wird erstmalig ein vollständig auf den aeroakustischen und fluiddynamischen Grundprinzipien basierendes nichtlinear gekoppeltes Modell selbst-erregter Oszillatoren für die Beschreibung des Verhaltens zweier wechselwirkender Orgelpfeifen entwickelt. Die durchgeführten Modellrechnungen werden mit den experimentellen Befunden verglichen. Es zeigt sich, dass die Tonentstehung und die Kopplungsmechanismen von Orgelpfeifen durch das entwickelte Oszillatormodell in weiten Teilen richtig beschrieben werden. Insbesondere kann damit die Ursache für den nichtlinearen Zusammenhang von Kopplungsstärke und Synchronisation des gekoppelten Zwei-Pfeifen Systems, welcher sich in einem nichtlinearen Verlauf der Arnoldzunge darstellt, geklärt werden. Mit den gewonnenen Erkenntnissen wird der Einfluss des Raumes auf die Tonentstehung bei Orgelpfeifen betrachtet. Dafür werden numerische Simulationen der Wechselwirkung einer Orgelpfeife mit verschiedenen Raumgeometrien, wie z. B. ebene, konvexe, konkave, und gezahnte Geometrien, exemplarisch untersucht. Auch der Einfluss von Schwellkästen auf die Tonentstehung und die Klangbildung der Orgelpfeife wird studiert. In weiteren, neuartigen Synchronisationsexperimenten mit identisch gestimmten Orgelpfeifen, sowie mit Mixturen wird die Synchronisation für verschiedene, horizontale und vertikale Pfeifenabstände in der Ebene der Schallabstrahlung, untersucht. Die dabei erstmalig beobachteten räumlich isotropen Unstetigkeiten im Schwingungsverhalten der gekoppelten Pfeifensysteme, deuten auf abstandsabhängige Wechsel zwischen gegen- und gleichphasigen Sychronisationsregimen hin. Abschließend wird die Möglichkeit dokumentiert, das Phänomen der Synchronisation zweier Orgelpfeifen durch numerische Simulationen, also der Behandlung der kompressiblen Navier-Stokes Gleichungen mit entsprechenden Rand- und Anfangsbedingungen, realitätsnah abzubilden. Auch dies stellt ein Novum dar.
Research on novel and advanced biomaterials is an indispensable step towards their applications in desirable fields such as tissue engineering, regenerative medicine, cell culture, or biotechnology. The work presented here focuses on such a promising material: polyelectrolyte multilayer (PEM) composed of hyaluronic acid (HA) and poly(L-lysine) (PLL). This gel-like polymer surface coating is able to accumulate (bio-)molecules such as proteins or drugs and release them in a controlled manner. It serves as a mimic of the extracellular matrix (ECM) in composition and intrinsic properties. These qualities make the HA/PLL multilayers a promising candidate for multiple bio-applications such as those mentioned above. The work presented aims at the development of a straightforward approach for assessment of multi-fractional diffusion in multilayers (first part) and at control of local molecular transport into or from the multilayers by laser light trigger (second part).
The mechanism of the loading and release is governed by the interaction of bioactives with the multilayer constituents and by the diffusion phenomenon overall. The diffusion of a molecule in HA/PLL multilayers shows multiple fractions of different diffusion rate. Approaches, that are able to assess the mobility of molecules in such a complex system, are limited. This shortcoming motivated the design of a novel evaluation tool presented here.
The tool employs a simulation-based approach for evaluation of the data acquired by fluorescence recovery after photobleaching (FRAP) method. In this approach, possible fluorescence recovery scenarios are primarily simulated and afterwards compared with the data acquired while optimizing parameters of a model until a sufficient match is achieved. Fluorescent latex particles of different sizes and fluorescein in an aqueous medium are utilized as test samples validating the analysis results. The diffusion of protein cytochrome c in HA/PLL multilayers is evaluated as well.
This tool significantly broadens the possibilities of analysis of spatiotemporal FRAP data, which originate from multi-fractional diffusion, while striving to be widely applicable. This tool has the potential to elucidate the mechanisms of molecular transport and empower rational engineering of the drug release systems.
The second part of the work focuses on the fabrication of such a spatiotemporarily-controlled drug release system employing the HA/PLL multilayer. This release system comprises different layers of various functionalities that together form a sandwich structure. The bottom layer, which serves as a reservoir, is formed by HA/PLL PEM deposited on a planar glass substrate. On top of the PEM, a layer of so-called hybrids is deposited. The hybrids consist of thermoresponsive poly(N-isopropylacrylamide) (PNIPAM) -based hydrogel microparticles with surface-attached gold nanorods. The layer of hybrids is intended to serve as a gate that controls the local molecular transport through the PEM–solution-interface. The possibility of stimulating the molecular transport by near-infrared (NIR) laser irradiation is being explored.
From several tested approaches for the deposition of hybrids onto the PEM surface, the drying-based approach was identified as optimal. Experiments, that examine the functionality of the fabricated sandwich at elevated temperature, document the reversible volume phase transition of the PEM-attached hybrids while sustaining the sandwich stability. Further, the gold nanorods were shown to effectively absorb light radiation in the tissue- and cell-friendly NIR spectral region while transducing the energy of light into heat. The rapid and reversible shrinkage of the PEM-attached hybrids was thereby achieved. Finally, dextran was employed as a model transport molecule. It loads into the PEM reservoir in a few seconds with the partition constant of 2.4, while it spontaneously releases in a slower, sustained manner. The local laser irradiation of the sandwich, which contains the fluorescein isothiocyanate tagged dextran, leads to a gradual reduction of fluorescence intensity in the irradiated region.
The release system fabricated employs renowned photoresponsivity of the hybrids in an innovative setting. The results of the research are a step towards a spatially-controlled on-demand drug release system that paves the way to spatiotemporally controlled drug release.
The approaches developed in this work have the potential to elucidate the molecular dynamics in ECM and to foster engineering of multilayers with properties tuned to mimic the ECM. The work aims at spatiotemporal control over the diffusion of bioactives and their presentation to the cells.
This study presents the development of 1D and 2D Surface Evolution Codes (SECs) and their coupling to any lithospheric-scale (thermo-)mechanical code with a quadrilateral structured surface mesh.
Both SECs involve diffusion as approach for hillslope processes and the stream power law to reflect riverbed incision. The 1D SEC settles sediment that was produced by fluvial incision in the appropriate minimum, while the supply-limited 2D SEC DANSER uses a fast filling algorithm to model sedimantation. It is based on a cellular automaton. A slope-dependent factor in the sediment flux extends the diffusion equation to nonlinear diffusion. The discharge accumulation is achieved with the D8-algorithm and an improved drainage accumulation routine. Lateral incision enhances the incision's modelling. Following empirical laws, it incises channels of several cells width.
The coupling method enables different temporal and spatial resolutions of the SEC and the thermo-mechanical code. It transfers vertical as well as horizontal displacements to the surface model. A weighted smoothing of the 3D surface displacements is implemented. The smoothed displacement vectors transmit the deformation by bilinear interpolation to the surface model. These interpolation methods ensure mass conservation in both directions and prevent the two surfaces from drifting apart.
The presented applications refer to the evolution of the Pamir orogen. A calibration of DANSER's parameters with geomorphological data and a DEM as initial topography highlights the advantage of lateral incision. Preserving the channel width and reflecting incision peaks in narrow channels, this closes the huge gap between current orogen-scale incision models and observed topographies.
River capturing models in a system of fault-bounded block rotations reaffirm the importance of the lateral incision routine for capturing events with channel initiation. The models show a low probability of river capturings with large deflection angles. While the probability of river capturing is directly depending on the uplift rate, the erodibility inside of a dip-slip fault speeds up headward erosion along the fault: The model's capturing speed increases within a fault.
Coupling DANSER with the thermo-mechanical code SLIM 3D emphasizes the versatility of the SEC. While DANSER has minor influence on the lithospheric evolution of an indenter model, the brittle surface deformation is strongly affected by its sedimentation, widening a basin in between two forming orogens and also the southern part of the southern orogen to south, east and west.
The North China Plain (NCP) is one of the most productive and intensive agricultural regions in China. High doses of mineral nitrogen (N) fertiliser, often combined with flood irrigation, are applied, resulting in N surplus, groundwater depletion and environmental pollution. The objectives of this thesis were to use the HERMES model to simulate the N cycle in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)–summer maize (Zea mays L.) double crop rotations and show the performance of the HERMES model, of the new ammonia volatilisation sub-module and of the new nitrification inhibition tool in the NCP. Further objectives were to assess the models potential to save N and water on plot and county scale, as well as on short and long-term. Additionally, improved management strategies with the help of a model-based nitrogen fertiliser recommendation (NFR) and adapted irrigation, should be found.
Results showed that the HERMES model performed well under growing conditions of the NCP and was able to describe the relevant processes related to soil–plant interactions concerning N and water during a 2.5 year field experiment. No differences in grain yield between the real-time model-based NFR and the other treatments of the experiments on plot scale in Quzhou County could be found. Simulations with increasing amounts of irrigation resulted in significantly higher N leaching, higher N requirements of the NFR and reduced yields. Thus, conventional flood irrigation as currently practised by the farmers bears great uncertainties and exact irrigation amounts should be known for future simulation studies. In the best-practice scenario simulation on plot-scale, N input and N leaching, but also irrigation water could be reduced strongly within 2 years. Thus, the model-based NFR in combination with adapted irrigation had the highest potential to reduce nitrate leaching, compared to farmers practice and mineral N (Nmin)-reduced treatments. Also the calibrated and validated ammonia volatilisation sub-module of the HERMES model worked well under the climatic and soil conditions of northern China. Simple ammonia volatilisation approaches gave also satisfying results compared to process-oriented approaches. During the simulation with Ammonium sulphate Nitrate with nitrification inhibitor (ASNDMPP) ammonia volatilisation was higher than in the simulation without nitrification inhibitor, while the result for nitrate leaching was the opposite. Although nitrification worked well in the model, nitrification-born nitrous oxide emissions should be considered in future. Results of the simulated annual long-term (31 years) N losses in whole Quzhou County in Hebei Province were 296.8 kg N ha−1 under common farmers practice treatment and 101.7 kg N ha−1 under optimised treatment including NFR and automated irrigation (OPTai). Spatial differences in simulated N losses throughout Quzhou County, could only be found due to different N inputs. Simulations of an optimised treatment, could save on average more than 260 kg N ha−1a−1 from fertiliser input and 190 kg N ha−1a−1 from N losses and around 115.7 mm a−1 of water, compared to farmers practice. These long-term simulation results showed lower N and water saving potential, compared to short-term simulations and underline the necessity of long-term simulations to overcome the effect of high initial N stocks in soil.
Additionally, the OPTai worked best on clay loam soil except for a high simulated denitrification loss, while the simulations using farmers practice irrigation could not match the actual water needs resulting in yield decline, especially for winter wheat. Thus, a precise adaption of management to actual weather conditions and plant growth needs is necessary for future simulations. However, the optimised treatments did not seem to be able to maintain the soil organic matter pools, even with full crop residue input. Extra organic inputs seem to be required to maintain soil quality in the optimised treatments.
HERMES is a relatively simple model, with regard to data input requirements, to simulate the N cycle. It can offer interpretation of management options on plot, on county and regional scale for extension and research staff. Also in combination with other N and water saving methods the model promises to be a useful tool.