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Models for the predictions of monetary losses from floods mainly blend data deemed to represent a single flood type and region. Moreover, these approaches largely ignore indicators of preparedness and how predictors may vary between regions and events, challenging the transferability of flood loss models. We use a flood loss database of 1812 German flood-affected households to explore how Bayesian multilevel models can estimate normalised flood damage stratified by event, region, or flood process type. Multilevel models acknowledge natural groups in the data and allow each group to learn from others. We obtain posterior estimates that differ between flood types, with credibly varying influences of water depth, contamination, duration, implementation of property-level precautionary measures, insurance, and previous flood experience; these influences overlap across most events or regions, however. We infer that the underlying damaging processes of distinct flood types deserve further attention. Each reported flood loss and affected region involved mixed flood types, likely explaining the uncertainty in the coefficients. Our results emphasise the need to consider flood types as an important step towards applying flood loss models elsewhere. We argue that failing to do so may unduly generalise the model and systematically bias loss estimations from empirical data.
Models for the predictions of monetary losses from floods mainly blend data deemed to represent a single flood type and region. Moreover, these approaches largely ignore indicators of preparedness and how predictors may vary between regions and events, challenging the transferability of flood loss models. We use a flood loss database of 1812 German flood-affected households to explore how Bayesian multilevel models can estimate normalised flood damage stratified by event, region, or flood process type. Multilevel models acknowledge natural groups in the data and allow each group to learn from others. We obtain posterior estimates that differ between flood types, with credibly varying influences of water depth, contamination, duration, implementation of property-level precautionary measures, insurance, and previous flood experience; these influences overlap across most events or regions, however. We infer that the underlying damaging processes of distinct flood types deserve further attention. Each reported flood loss and affected region involved mixed flood types, likely explaining the uncertainty in the coefficients. Our results emphasise the need to consider flood types as an important step towards applying flood loss models elsewhere. We argue that failing to do so may unduly generalise the model and systematically bias loss estimations from empirical data.
Pluvial floods have caused severe damage to urban areas in recent years. With a projected increase in extreme precipitation as well as an ongoing urbanization, pluvial flood damage is expected to increase in the future. Therefore, further insights, especially on the adverse consequences of pluvial floods and their mitigation, are needed. To gain more knowledge, empirical damage data from three different pluvial flood events in Germany were collected through computer-aided telephone interviews. Pluvial flood awareness as well as flood experience were found to be low before the respective flood events. The level of private precaution increased considerably after all events, but is mainly focused on measures that are easy to implement. Lower inundation depths, smaller potential losses as compared with fluvial floods, as well as the fact that pluvial flooding may occur everywhere, are expected to cause a shift in damage mitigation from precaution to emergency response. However, an effective implementation of emergency measures was constrained by a low dissemination of early warnings in the study areas. Further improvements of early warning systems including dissemination as well as a rise in pluvial flood preparedness are important to reduce future pluvial flood damage.
Pluvial floods have caused severe damage to urban areas in recent years. With a projected increase in extreme precipitation as well as an ongoing urbanization, pluvial flood damage is expected to increase in the future. Therefore, further insights, especially on the adverse consequences of pluvial floods and their mitigation, are needed. To gain more knowledge, empirical damage data from three different pluvial flood events in Germany were collected through computer-aided telephone interviews. Pluvial flood awareness as well as flood experience were found to be low before the respective flood events. The level of private precaution increased considerably after all events, but is mainly focused on measures that are easy to implement. Lower inundation depths, smaller potential losses as compared with fluvial floods, as well as the fact that pluvial flooding may occur everywhere, are expected to cause a shift in damage mitigation from precaution to emergency response. However, an effective implementation of emergency measures was constrained by a low dissemination of early warnings in the study areas. Further improvements of early warning systems including dissemination as well as a rise in pluvial flood preparedness are important to reduce future pluvial flood damage.
Die zerstörungsfreien Prüfungen von Bauwerken mit Hilfe von Ultraschallmessverfahren haben in den letzten Jahren an Bedeutung gewonnen. Durch Ultraschallmessungen können die Geometrien von Bauteilen bestimmt sowie von außen nicht sichtbare Fehler wie Delaminationen und Kiesnester erkannt werden.
Mit neuartigen, in das Betonbauteil eingebetteten Ultraschallprüfköpfen sollen nun Bauwerke dauerhaft auf Veränderungen überprüft werden. Dazu werden Ultraschallsignale direkt im Inneren eines Bauteils erzeugt, was die Möglichkeiten der herkömmlichen Methoden der Bauwerksüberwachung wesentlich erweitert. Ein Ultraschallverfahren könnte mit eingebetteten Prüfköpfen ein Betonbauteil kontinuierlich integral überwachen und damit auch stetig fortschreitende Gefügeänderungen, wie beispielsweise Mikrorisse, registrieren.
Sicherheitsrelevante Bauteile, die nach dem Einbau für Messungen unzugänglich oder mittels Ultraschall, beispielsweise durch zusätzliche Beschichtungen der Oberfläche, nicht prüfbar sind, lassen sich mit eingebetteten Prüfköpfen überwachen. An bereits vorhandenen Bauwerken können die Ultraschallprüfköpfe mithilfe von Bohrlöchern und speziellem Verpressmörtel auch nachträglich in das Bauteil integriert werden. Für Fertigbauteile bieten sich eingebettete Prüfköpfe zur Herstellungskontrolle sowie zur Überwachung der Baudurchführung als Werkzeug der Qualitätssicherung an. Auch die schnelle Schadensanalyse eines Bauwerks nach Naturkatastrophen, wie beispielsweise einem Erdbeben oder einer Flut, ist denkbar.
Durch die gute Ankopplung ermöglichen diese neuartigen Prüfköpfe den Einsatz von empfindlichen Auswertungsmethoden, wie die Kreuzkorrelation, die Coda-Wellen-Interferometrie oder die Amplitudenauswertung, für die Signalanalyse. Bei regelmäßigen Messungen können somit sich anbahnende Schäden eines Bauwerks frühzeitig erkannt werden.
Da die Schädigung eines Bauwerks keine direkt messbare Größe darstellt, erfordert eine eindeutige Schadenserkennung in der Regel die Messung mehrerer physikalischer Größen die geeignet verknüpft werden. Physikalische Größen können sein: Ultraschalllaufzeit, Amplitude des Ultraschallsignals und Umgebungstemperatur. Dazu müssen Korrelationen zwischen dem Zustand des Bauwerks, den Umgebungsbedingungen und den Parametern des gemessenen Ultraschallsignals untersucht werden.
In dieser Arbeit werden die neuartigen Prüfköpfe vorgestellt. Es wird beschrieben, dass sie sich, sowohl in bereits errichtete Betonbauwerke als auch in der Konstruktion befindliche, einbauen lassen. Experimentell wird gezeigt, dass die Prüfköpfe in mehreren Ebenen eingebettet sein können da ihre Abstrahlcharakteristik im Beton nahezu ungerichtet ist. Die Mittenfrequenz von rund 62 kHz ermöglicht Abstände, je nach Betonart und SRV, von mindestens 3 m zwischen Prüfköpfen die als Sender und Empfänger arbeiten. Die Empfindlichkeit der eingebetteten Prüfköpfe gegenüber Veränderungen im Beton wird an Hand von zwei Laborexperimenten gezeigt, einem Drei-Punkt-Biegeversuch und einem Versuch zur Erzeugung von Frost-Tau-Wechsel Schäden. Die Ergebnisse werden mit anderen zerstörungsfreien Prüfverfahren verglichen. Es zeigt sich, dass die Prüfköpfe durch die Anwendung empfindlicher Auswertemethoden, auftretende Risse im Beton detektieren, bevor diese eine Gefahr für das Bauwerk darstellen. Abschließend werden Beispiele von Installation der neuartigen Ultraschallprüfköpfe in realen Bauteilen, zwei Brücken und einem Fundament, gezeigt und basierend auf dort gewonnenen ersten Erfahrungen ein Konzept für die Umsetzung einer Langzeitüberwachung aufgestellt.
We investigate the usefulness of complex flood damage models for predicting relative damage to residential buildings in a spatial and temporal transfer context. We apply eight different flood damage models to predict relative building damage for five historic flood events in two different regions of Germany. Model complexity is measured in terms of the number of explanatory variables which varies from 1 variable up to 10 variables which are singled out from 28 candidate variables. Model validation is based on empirical damage data, whereas observation uncertainty is taken into consideration. The comparison of model predictive performance shows that additional explanatory variables besides the water depth improve the predictive capability in a spatial and temporal transfer context, i.e., when the models are transferred to different regions and different flood events. Concerning the trade-off between predictive capability and reliability the model structure seem more important than the number of explanatory variables. Among the models considered, the reliability of Bayesian network-based predictions in space-time transfer is larger than for the remaining models, and the uncertainties associated with damage predictions are reflected more completely.