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Assimilation of pseudo-tree-ring-width observations into an atmospheric general circulation model
(2017)
Paleoclimate data assimilation (DA) is a promising technique to systematically combine the information from climate model simulations and proxy records. Here, we investigate the assimilation of tree-ring-width (TRW) chronologies into an atmospheric global climate model using ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) techniques and a process-based tree-growth forward model as an observation operator. Our results, within a perfect-model experiment setting, indicate that the "online DA" approach did not outperform the "off-line" one, despite its considerable additional implementation complexity. On the other hand, it was observed that the nonlinear response of tree growth to surface temperature and soil moisture does deteriorate the operation of the time-averaged EnKF methodology. Moreover, for the first time we show that this skill loss appears significantly sensitive to the structure of the growth rate function, used to represent the principle of limiting factors (PLF) within the forward model. In general, our experiments showed that the error reduction achieved by assimilating pseudo-TRW chronologies is modulated by the magnitude of the yearly internal variability in themodel. This result might help the dendrochronology community to optimize their sampling efforts.
The starting point of this article is the occurrence of determiner-less and bare que relative complementizers like (en) que, ‘(in) that’, instead of (en) el que, ‘(in) which’, in Yucatecan Spanish (southeast Mexico). While reference grammars treat complementizers with a determiner as the standard option, previous diachronic research has shown that determiner-less complementizers actually predate relative complementizers with a determiner. Additionally, Yucatecan Spanish has been in long-standing contact with Yucatec Maya. Relative complementation in Yucatec Maya differs from that in Spanish (at least) in that the non-complex complementizer tu’ux (‘where’) is generally the only option for locative complementation. The paper explores monolingual and bilingual data from Yucatecan Spanish to discuss the question whether the determiner-less and bare que relative complementizers in our data constitute a historic remnant or a dialectal recast, possibly (but not necessarily) due to language contact. Although our pilot study may not answer these far-reaching questions, it does reveal two separate, but intertwined developments: (i) a generally increased rate of bare que relative complementation, across both monolingual speakers of Spanish and Spanish Maya bilinguals, compared to other Spanish varieties, and (ii) a preference for donde at the cost of other locative complementizer constructions in the bilingual group. Our analysis thus reveals intriguing differences between the complementizer preferences of monolingual and bilingual speakers, suggesting that different variational patterns caused by different (socio-)linguistic factors can co-develop in parallel in one and the [same] region.
Der Einfluss der Dynamik auf die stratosphärische Ozonvariabilität über der Arktis im Frühwinter
(2010)
Der frühwinterliche Ozongehalt ist ein Indikator für den Ozongehalt im Spätwinter/Frühjahr. Jedoch weist dieser aufgrund von Absinkprozessen, chemisch bedingten Ozonabbau und Wellenaktivität von Jahr zu Jahr starke Schwankungen auf. Die vorliegende Arbeit zeigt, dass diese Variabilität weitestgehend auf dynamische Prozesse während der Wirbelbildungsphase des arktischen Polarwirbels zurückgeht. Ferner wird der bisher noch ausstehende Zusammenhang zwischen dem früh- und spätwinterlichen Ozongehalt bezüglich Dynamik und Chemie aufgezeigt. Für die Untersuchung des Zusammenhangs zwischen der im Polarwirbel eingeschlossenen Luftmassenzusammensetzung und Ozonmenge wurden Beobachtungsdaten von Satellitenmessinstrumenten und Ozonsonden sowie Modellsimulationen des Lagrangschen Chemie/Transportmodells ATLAS verwandt. Die über die Fläche (45–75°N) und Zeit (August-November) gemittelte Vertikalkomponente des Eliassen-Palm-Flussvektors durch die 100hPa-Fläche zeigt eine Verbindung zwischen der frühwinterlichen wirbelinneren Luftmassenzusammensetzung und der Wirbelbildungsphase auf. Diese ist jedoch nur für die untere Stratosphäre gültig, da die Vertikalkomponente die sich innerhalb der Stratosphäre ändernden Wellenausbreitungsbedingungen nicht erfasst. Für eine verbesserte Höhendarstellung des Signals wurde eine neue integrale auf der Wellenamplitude und dem Charney-Drazin-Kriterium basierende Größe definiert. Diese neue Größe verbindet die Wellenaktivität während der Wirbelbildungsphase sowohl mit der Luftmassenzusammensetzung im Polarwirbel als auch mit der Ozonverteilung über die Breite. Eine verstärkte Wellenaktivität führt zu mehr Luft aus niedrigeren ozonreichen Breiten im Polarwirbel. Aber im Herbst und Frühwinter zerstören chemische Prozesse, die das Ozon ins Gleichgewicht bringen, die interannuale wirbelinnere Ozonvariablität, die durch dynamische Prozesse während der arktischen Polarwirbelbildungsphase hervorgerufen wird. Eine Analyse in Hinblick auf den Fortbestand einer dynamisch induzierten Ozonanomalie bis in den Mittwinter ermöglicht eine Abschätzung des Einflusses dieser dynamischen Prozesse auf den arktischen Ozongehalt. Zu diesem Zweck wurden für den Winter 1999–2000 Modellläufe mit dem Lagrangesche Chemie/Transportmodell ATLAS gerechnet, die detaillierte Informationen über den Erhalt der künstlichen Ozonvariabilität hinsichtlich Zeit, Höhe und Breite liefern. Zusammengefasst, besteht die dynamisch induzierte Ozonvariabilität während der Wirbelbildungsphase länger im Inneren als im Äußeren des Polarwirbels und verliert oberhalb von 750K potentieller Temperatur ihre signifikante Wirkung auf die mittwinterliche Ozonvariabilität. In darunterliegenden Höhenbereichen ist der Anteil an der ursprünglichen Störung groß, bis zu 90% auf der 450K. Innerhalb dieses Höhenbereiches üben die dynamischen Prozesse während der Wirbelbildungsphase einen entscheidenden Einfluss auf den Ozongehalt im Mittwinter aus.
Modelling the transfer of supraglacial meltwater to the bed of Leverett Glacier, Southwest Greenland
(2015)
Meltwater delivered to the bed of the Greenland Ice Sheet is a driver of variable ice-motion through changes in effective pressure and enhanced basal lubrication. Ice surface velocities have been shown to respond rapidly both to meltwater production at the surface and to drainage of supraglacial lakes, suggesting efficient transfer of meltwater from the supraglacial to subglacial hydrological systems. Although considerable effort is currently being directed towards improved modelling of the controlling surface and basal processes, modelling the temporal and spatial evolution of the transfer of melt to the bed has received less attention. Here we present the results of spatially distributed modelling for prediction of moulins and lake drainages on the Leverett Glacier in Southwest Greenland. The model is run for the 2009 and 2010 ablation seasons, and for future increased melt scenarios. The temporal pattern of modelled lake drainages are qualitatively comparable with those documented from analyses of repeat satellite imagery. The modelled timings and locations of delivery of meltwater to the bed also match well with observed temporal and spatial patterns of ice surface speed-ups. This is particularly true for the lower catchment (< 1000 m a.s.l.) where both the model and observations indicate that the development of moulins is the main mechanism for the transfer of surface meltwater to the bed. At higher elevations (e.g. 1250-1500 m a.s.l.) the development and drainage of supraglacial lakes becomes increasingly important. At these higher elevations, the delay between modelled melt generation and subsequent delivery of melt to the bed matches the observed delay between the peak air temperatures and subsequent velocity speed-ups, while the instantaneous transfer of melt to the bed in a control simulation does not. Although both moulins and lake drainages are predicted to increase in number for future warmer climate scenarios, the lake drainages play an increasingly important role in both expanding the area over which melt accesses the bed and in enabling a greater proportion of surface melt to reach the bed.
The role that climate and environmental history may have played in influencing human evolution has been the focus of considerable interest and controversy among paleoanthropologists for decades. Prior attempts to understand the environmental history side of this equation have centered around the study of outcrop sediments and fossils adjacent to where fossil hominins (ancestors or close relatives of modern humans) are found, or from the study of deep sea drill cores. However, outcrop sediments are often highly weathered and thus are unsuitable for some types of paleoclimatic records, and deep sea core records come from long distances away from the actual fossil and stone tool remains. The Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP) was developed to address these issues. The project has focused its efforts on the eastern African Rift Valley, where much of the evidence for early hominins has been recovered. We have collected about 2 km of sediment drill core from six basins in Kenya and Ethiopia, in lake deposits immediately adjacent to important fossil hominin and archaeological sites. Collectively these cores cover in time many of the key transitions and critical intervals in human evolutionary history over the last 4 Ma, such as the earliest stone tools, the origin of our own genus Homo, and the earliest anatomically modern Homo sapiens. Here we document the initial field, physical property, and core description results of the 2012-2014 HSPDP coring campaign.
The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i. e. onset, peak and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in centennial rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. Rather they indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.
Background:
Exercising at intensities where fat oxidation rates are high has been shown to induce metabolic benefits in recreational and health-oriented sportsmen. The exercise intensity (Fat peak ) eliciting peak fat oxidation rates is therefore of particular interest when aiming to prescribe exercise for the purpose of fat oxidation and related metabolic effects. Although running and walking are feasible and popular among the target population, no reliable protocols are available to assess Fat peak as well as its actual velocity (V PFO ) during treadmill ergometry. Our purpose was therefore, to assess the reliability and day-to-day variability of V PFO and Fat peak during treadmill ergometry running.
Methods:
Sixteen recreational athletes (f = 7, m = 9; 25 ± 3 y; 1.76 ± 0.09 m; 68.3 ± 13.7 kg; 23.1 ± 2.9 kg/m 2 ) performed 2 different running protocols on 3 different days with standardized nutrition the day before testing. At day 1, peak oxygen uptake (VO 2peak ) and the velocities at the aerobic threshold (V LT ) and respiratory exchange ratio (RER) of 1.00 (V RER ) were assessed. At days 2 and 3, subjects ran an identical submaximal incremental test (Fat-peak test) composed of a 10 min warm-up (70 % V LT ) followed by 5 stages of 6 min with equal increments (stage 1 = V LT , stage 5 = V RER ). Breath-by-breath gas exchange data was measured continuously and used to determine fat oxidation rates. A third order polynomial function was used to identify V PFO and subsequently Fat peak . The reproducibility and variability of variables was verified with an int raclass correlation coef ficient (ICC), Pearson ’ s correlation coefficient, coefficient of variation (CV) an d the mean differences (bias) ± 95 % limits of agreement (LoA).
Results:
ICC, Pearson ’ s correlation and CV for V PFO and Fat peak were 0.98, 0.97, 5.0 %; and 0.90, 0.81, 7.0 %, respectively. Bias ± 95 % LoA was − 0.3 ± 0.9 km/h for V PFO and − 2±8%ofVO 2peak for Fat peak.
Conclusion:
In summary, relative and absolute reliability indicators for V PFO and Fat peak were found to be excellent. The observed LoA may now serve as a basis for future training prescriptions, although fat oxidation rates at prolonged exercise bouts at this intensity still need to be investigated.
Cleft exhaustivity
(2020)
In this dissertation a series of experimental studies are presented which demonstrate that the exhaustive inference of focus-background it-clefts in English and their cross-linguistic counterparts in Akan, French, and German is neither robust nor systematic. The inter-speaker and cross-linguistic variability is accounted for with a discourse-pragmatic approach to cleft exhaustivity, in which -- following Pollard & Yasavul 2016 -- the exhaustive inference is derived from an interaction with another layer of meaning, namely, the existence presupposition encoded in clefts.
Identifying abrupt transitions is a key question in various disciplines. Existing transition detection methods, however, do not rigorously account for time series uncertainties, often neglecting them altogether or assuming them to be independent and qualitatively similar. Here, we introduce a novel approach suited to handle uncertainties by representing the time series as a time-ordered sequence of probability density functions. We show how to detect abrupt transitions in such a sequence using the community structure of networks representing probabilities of recurrence. Using our approach, we detect transitions in global stock indices related to well-known periods of politico-economic volatility. We further uncover transitions in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation which coincide with periods of phase locking with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Finally, we provide for the first time an 'uncertainty-aware' framework which validates the hypothesis that ice-rafting events in the North Atlantic during the Holocene were synchronous with a weakened Asian summer monsoon.
The results of streamflow trend studies are often characterized by mostly insignificant trends and inexplicable spatial patterns. In our study region, Western Austria, this applies especially for trends of annually averaged runoff. However, analysing the altitudinal aspect, we found that there is a trend gradient from higher-altitude to lower-altitude stations, i.e. a pattern of mostly positive annual trends at higher stations and negative ones at lower stations. At midaltitudes, the trends are mostly insignificant. Here we hypothesize that the streamflow trends are caused by the following two main processes: on the one hand, melting glaciers produce excess runoff at higher-altitude watersheds. On the other hand, rising temperatures potentially alter hydrological conditions in terms of less snowfall, higher infiltration, enhanced evapotranspiration, etc., which in turn results in decreasing streamflow trends at lower-altitude watersheds. However, these patterns are masked at mid-altitudes because the resulting positive and negative trends balance each other. To support these hypotheses, we attempted to attribute the detected trends to specific causes. For this purpose, we analysed trends of filtered daily streamflow data, as the causes for these changes might be restricted to a smaller temporal scale than the annual one. This allowed for the explicit determination of the exact days of year (DOYs) when certain streamflow trends emerge, which were then linked with the corresponding DOYs of the trends and characteristic dates of other observed variables, e.g. the average DOY when temperature crosses the freezing point in spring. Based on these analyses, an empirical statistical model was derived that was able to simulate daily streamflow trends sufficiently well. Analyses of subdaily streamflow changes provided additional insights. Finally, the present study supports many modelling approaches in the literature which found out that the main drivers of alpine streamflow changes are increased glacial melt, earlier snowmelt and lower snow accumulation in wintertime.