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Global heat adaptation among urban populations and its evolution under different climate futures
(2022)
Heat and increasing ambient temperatures under climate change represent a serious threat to human health in cities. Heat exposure has been studied extensively at a global scale. Studies comparing a defined temperature threshold with the future daytime temperature during a certain period of time, had concluded an increase in threat to human health. Such findings however do not explicitly account for possible changes in future human heat adaptation and might even overestimate heat exposure. Thus, heat adaptation and its development is still unclear. Human heat adaptation refers to the local temperature to which populations are adjusted to. It can be inferred from the lowest point of the U- or V-shaped heat-mortality relationship (HMR), the Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT). While epidemiological studies inform on the MMT at the city scale for case studies, a general model applicable at the global scale to infer on temporal change in MMTs had not yet been realised. The conventional approach depends on data availability, their robustness, and on the access to daily mortality records at the city scale. Thorough analysis however must account for future changes in the MMT as heat adaptation happens partially passively. Human heat adaptation consists of two aspects: (1) the intensity of the heat hazard that is still tolerated by human populations, meaning the heat burden they can bear and (2) the wealth-induced technological, social and behavioural measures that can be employed to avoid heat exposure. The objective of this thesis is to investigate and quantify human heat adaptation among urban populations at a global scale under the current climate and to project future adaptation under climate change until the end of the century. To date, this has not yet been accomplished. The evaluation of global heat adaptation among urban populations and its evolution under climate change comprises three levels of analysis. First, using the example of Germany, the MMT is calculated at the city level by applying the conventional method. Second, this thesis compiles a data pool of 400 urban MMTs to develop and train a new model capable of estimating MMTs on the basis of physical and socio-economic city characteristics using multivariate non-linear multivariate regression. The MMT is successfully described as a function of the current climate, the topography and the socio-economic standard, independently of daily mortality data for cities around the world. The city-specific MMT estimates represents a measure of human heat adaptation among the urban population. In a final third analysis, the model to derive human heat adaptation was adjusted to be driven by projected climate and socio-economic variables for the future. This allowed for estimation of the MMT and its change for 3 820 cities worldwide for different combinations of climate trajectories and socio-economic pathways until 2100. The knowledge on the evolution of heat adaptation in the future is a novelty as mostly heat exposure and its future development had been researched. In this work, changes in heat adaptation and exposure were analysed jointly. A wide range of possible health-related outcomes up to 2100 was the result, of which two scenarios with the highest socio-economic developments but opposing strong warming levels were highlighted for comparison. Strong economic growth based upon fossil fuel exploitation is associated with a high gain in heat adaptation, but may not be able to compensate for the associated negative health effects due to increased heat exposure in 30% to 40% of the cities investigated caused by severe climate change. A slightly less strong, but sustainable growth brings moderate gains in heat adaptation but a lower heat exposure and exposure reductions in 80% to 84% of the cities in terms of frequency (number of days exceeding the MMT) and intensity (magnitude of the MMT exceedance) due to a milder global warming. Choosing a 2 ° C compatible development by 2100 would therefore lower the risk of heat-related mortality at the end of the century. In summary, this thesis makes diverse and multidisciplinary contributions to a deeper understanding of human adaptation to heat under the current and the future climate. It is one of the first studies to carry out a systematic and statistical analysis of urban characteristics which are useful as MMT drivers to establish a generalised model of human heat adaptation, applicable at the global level. A broad range of possible heat-related health options for various future scenarios was shown for the first time. This work is of relevance for the assessment of heat-health impacts in regions where mortality data are not accessible or missing. The results are useful for health care planning at the meso- and macro-level and to urban- and climate change adaptation planning. Lastly, beyond having met the posed objective, this thesis advances research towards a global future impact assessment of heat on human health by providing an alternative method of MMT estimation, that is spatially and temporally flexible in its application.
The functioning of the surface water-groundwater interface as buffer, filter and reactive zone is important for water quality, ecological health and resilience of streams and riparian ecosystems. Solute and heat exchange across this interface is driven by the advection of water. Characterizing the flow conditions in the streambed is challenging as flow patterns are often complex and multidimensional, driven by surface hydraulic gradients and groundwater discharge. This thesis presents the results of an integrated approach of studies, ranging from the acquisition of field data, the development of analytical and numerical approaches to analyse vertical temperature profiles to the detailed, fully-integrated 3D numerical modelling of water and heat flux at the reach scale. All techniques were applied in order to characterize exchange flux between stream and groundwater, hyporheic flow paths and temperature patterns.
The study was conducted at a reach-scale section of the lowland Selke River, characterized by distinctive pool riffle sequences and fluvial islands and gravel bars. Continuous time series of hydraulic heads and temperatures were measured at different depths in the river bank, the hyporheic zone and within the river. The analyses of the measured diurnal temperature variation in riverbed sediments provided detailed information about the exchange flux between river and groundwater. Beyond the one-dimensional vertical water flow in the riverbed sediment, hyporheic and parafluvial flow patterns were identified. Subsurface flow direction and magnitude around fluvial islands and gravel bars at the study site strongly depended on the position around the geomorphological structures and on the river stage. Horizontal water flux in the streambed substantially impacted temperature patterns in the streambed. At locations with substantial horizontal fluxes the penetration depths of daily temperature fluctuations was reduced in comparison to purely vertical exchange conditions.
The calibrated and validated 3D fully-integrated model of reach-scale water and heat fluxes across the river-groundwater interface was able to accurately represent the real system. The magnitude and variations of the simulated temperatures matched the observed ones, with an average mean absolute error of 0.7 °C and an average Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.87. The simulation results showed that the water and heat exchange at the surface water-groundwater interface is highly variable in space and time with zones of daily temperature oscillations penetrating deep into the sediment and spots of daily constant temperature following the average groundwater temperature. The average hyporheic flow path temperature was found to strongly correlate with the flow path residence time (flow path length) and the temperature gradient between river and groundwater. Despite the complexity of these processes, the simulation results allowed the derivation of a general empirical relationship between the hyporheic residence times and temperature patterns. The presented results improve our understanding of the complex spatial and temporal dynamics of water flux and thermal processes within the shallow streambed. Understanding these links provides a general basis from which to assess hyporheic temperature conditions in river reaches.
Die zerstörungsfreien Prüfungen von Bauwerken mit Hilfe von Ultraschallmessverfahren haben in den letzten Jahren an Bedeutung gewonnen. Durch Ultraschallmessungen können die Geometrien von Bauteilen bestimmt sowie von außen nicht sichtbare Fehler wie Delaminationen und Kiesnester erkannt werden.
Mit neuartigen, in das Betonbauteil eingebetteten Ultraschallprüfköpfen sollen nun Bauwerke dauerhaft auf Veränderungen überprüft werden. Dazu werden Ultraschallsignale direkt im Inneren eines Bauteils erzeugt, was die Möglichkeiten der herkömmlichen Methoden der Bauwerksüberwachung wesentlich erweitert. Ein Ultraschallverfahren könnte mit eingebetteten Prüfköpfen ein Betonbauteil kontinuierlich integral überwachen und damit auch stetig fortschreitende Gefügeänderungen, wie beispielsweise Mikrorisse, registrieren.
Sicherheitsrelevante Bauteile, die nach dem Einbau für Messungen unzugänglich oder mittels Ultraschall, beispielsweise durch zusätzliche Beschichtungen der Oberfläche, nicht prüfbar sind, lassen sich mit eingebetteten Prüfköpfen überwachen. An bereits vorhandenen Bauwerken können die Ultraschallprüfköpfe mithilfe von Bohrlöchern und speziellem Verpressmörtel auch nachträglich in das Bauteil integriert werden. Für Fertigbauteile bieten sich eingebettete Prüfköpfe zur Herstellungskontrolle sowie zur Überwachung der Baudurchführung als Werkzeug der Qualitätssicherung an. Auch die schnelle Schadensanalyse eines Bauwerks nach Naturkatastrophen, wie beispielsweise einem Erdbeben oder einer Flut, ist denkbar.
Durch die gute Ankopplung ermöglichen diese neuartigen Prüfköpfe den Einsatz von empfindlichen Auswertungsmethoden, wie die Kreuzkorrelation, die Coda-Wellen-Interferometrie oder die Amplitudenauswertung, für die Signalanalyse. Bei regelmäßigen Messungen können somit sich anbahnende Schäden eines Bauwerks frühzeitig erkannt werden.
Da die Schädigung eines Bauwerks keine direkt messbare Größe darstellt, erfordert eine eindeutige Schadenserkennung in der Regel die Messung mehrerer physikalischer Größen die geeignet verknüpft werden. Physikalische Größen können sein: Ultraschalllaufzeit, Amplitude des Ultraschallsignals und Umgebungstemperatur. Dazu müssen Korrelationen zwischen dem Zustand des Bauwerks, den Umgebungsbedingungen und den Parametern des gemessenen Ultraschallsignals untersucht werden.
In dieser Arbeit werden die neuartigen Prüfköpfe vorgestellt. Es wird beschrieben, dass sie sich, sowohl in bereits errichtete Betonbauwerke als auch in der Konstruktion befindliche, einbauen lassen. Experimentell wird gezeigt, dass die Prüfköpfe in mehreren Ebenen eingebettet sein können da ihre Abstrahlcharakteristik im Beton nahezu ungerichtet ist. Die Mittenfrequenz von rund 62 kHz ermöglicht Abstände, je nach Betonart und SRV, von mindestens 3 m zwischen Prüfköpfen die als Sender und Empfänger arbeiten. Die Empfindlichkeit der eingebetteten Prüfköpfe gegenüber Veränderungen im Beton wird an Hand von zwei Laborexperimenten gezeigt, einem Drei-Punkt-Biegeversuch und einem Versuch zur Erzeugung von Frost-Tau-Wechsel Schäden. Die Ergebnisse werden mit anderen zerstörungsfreien Prüfverfahren verglichen. Es zeigt sich, dass die Prüfköpfe durch die Anwendung empfindlicher Auswertemethoden, auftretende Risse im Beton detektieren, bevor diese eine Gefahr für das Bauwerk darstellen. Abschließend werden Beispiele von Installation der neuartigen Ultraschallprüfköpfe in realen Bauteilen, zwei Brücken und einem Fundament, gezeigt und basierend auf dort gewonnenen ersten Erfahrungen ein Konzept für die Umsetzung einer Langzeitüberwachung aufgestellt.
This thesis discusses theoretical and practical aspects of modelling of light propagation in non-aged and aged step-index polymer optical fibres (POFs). Special attention has been paid in describing optical characteristics of non-ideal fibres, scattering and attenuation, and in combining application-oriented and theoretical approaches. The precedence has been given to practical issues, but much effort has been also spent on the theoretical analysis of basic mechanisms governing light propagation in cylindrical waveguides.As a result a practically usable general POF model based on the raytracing approach has been developed and implemented. A systematic numerical optimisation of its parameters has been performed to obtain the best fit between simulated and measured optical characteristics of numerous non-aged and aged fibre samples. The model was verified by providing good agreement, especially for the non-aged fibres. The relations found between aging time and optimal values of model parameters contribute to a better understanding of the aging mechanisms of POFs.
Modelling and simulation of light propagation in non-aged and aged step-index polymer optical fibres
(2004)
This thesis discusses theoretical and practical aspects of modelling of light propagation in non-aged and aged step-index polymer optical fibres (POFs). Special attention has been paid in describing optical characteristics of non-ideal fibres, scattering and attenuation, and in combining application-oriented and theoretical approaches. The precedence has been given to practical issues, but much effort has been also spent on the theoretical analysis of basic mechanisms governing light propagation in cylindrical waveguides. As a result a practically usable general POF model based on the raytracing approach has been developed and implemented. A systematic numerical optimisation of its parameters has been performed to obtain the best fit between simulated and measured optical characteristics of numerous non-aged and aged fibre samples. The model was verified by providing good agreement, especially for the non-aged fibres. The relations found between aging time and optimal values of model parameters contribute to a better understanding of the aging mechanisms of POFs.