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To improve our mechanistic understanding and predictive capacities with respect to climate change effects on the spring phytoplankton bloom in temperate marine systems, we used a process-driven dynamical model to disentangle the impact of potentially relevant factors which are often correlated in the field. The model was based on comprehensive indoor mesocosm experiments run at four temperature and three light regimes. It was driven by time-series of water temperature and irradiance, considered edible and less edible phytoplankton separately, and accounted for density- dependent grazing losses. It successfully reproduced the observed dynamics of well edible phytoplankton in the different temperature and light treatments. Four major factors influenced spring phytoplankton dynamics: temperature, light (cloudiness), grazing, and the success of overwintering phyto- and zooplankton providing the starting biomasses for spring growth. Our study predicts that increasing cloudiness as anticipated for warmer winters for the Baltic Sea region will retard phytoplankton net growth and reduce peak heights. Light had a strong direct effect in contrast to temperature. However, edible phytoplankton was indirectly strongly temperature-sensitive via grazing which was already important in early spring at moderately high algal biomasses and counter-intuitively provoked lower and later algal peaks at higher temperatures. Initial phyto- and zooplankton composition and biomass also had a strong effect on spring algal dynamics indicating a memory effect via the broadly under-sampled overwintering plankton community. Unexpectedly, increased initial phytoplankton biomass did not necessarily lead to earlier or higher spring blooms since the effect was counteracted by subsequently enhanced grazing. Increasing temperature will likely exhibit complex indirect effects via changes in overwintering phytoplankton and grazer biomasses and current grazing pressure. Additionally, effects on the phytoplankton composition due to the species-specific susceptibility to grazing are expected. Hence, we need to consider not only direct but also indirect effects, e.g. biotic interactions, when addressing climate change impacts.
A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others ('reinventing the wheel'). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available ('having tunnel vision'). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: super-individual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and traitbased models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its 'leading principle', there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single 'right' approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative view on the functioning of lake ecosystems. We end with a set of specific recommendations that may be of help in the further development of lake ecosystem models.
During 1987-1998, the ciliates and their prey and predator communities in large, deep, mesotrophic Lake Constance were intensively studied as it underwent re-oligotrophication. Ciliate biomass exhibited the bimodal seasonal distribution typical for meso-eutrophic lakes, with high biomass in spring and summer and low biomass in winter and during the clear-water phase. Cluster analysis produced nine groups of temporally co-occurring ciliate morphotypes with potentially similar ecological characteristics. The clusters exhibited a larger seasonality than found in the size distribution, showing that similarly-sized ciliates had seasonally compensatory dynamics. Ciliate biomass declined by approx. 30 % during the 12 years of study, i.e. considerably less than daphnids (and total phosphorus). This yielded a significant increase in the ratio between summer ciliate and daphnid biomass as re-oligotrophication progressed, in contrast to previous studies. Few indications for a mechanistic link between phosphorus concentrations (which declined threefold during the study period) and ciliate biomass or community composition via group-specific food concentrations were found. The relative contribution of three of the nine clusters changed as re-oligotrophication progressed. Ciliate size distribution was related to reoligotrophication and daphnid biomass in summer. The smallest and largest ciliates gained in importance when daphnids decreased whereas large ciliates declined. Overall, summer daphnid biomas had a greater predictive power for attributes of the ciliate community than the other factors studied (phosphorus, prey biomass, copepod biomass). The extent of bottom-up and top-down control of ciliates appeared to be time and group specific. Overall, the ciliate community exhibited remarkably recurrent seasonal patterns despite major alternations in abiotic and biotic conditions.
We investigated the effects of warming on a natural phytoplankton community from the Baltic Sea, based on six mesocosm experiments conducted 2005-2009. We focused on differences in the dynamics of three phytoplankton size groups which are grazed to a variable extent by different zooplankton groups. While small-sized algae were mostly grazer-controlled, light and nutrient availability largely determined the growth of medium- and large-sized algae. Thus, the latter groups dominated at increased light levels. Warming increased mesozooplankton grazing on medium-sized algae, reducing their biomass. The biomass of small-sized algae was not affected by temperature, probably due to an interplay between indirect effects spreading through the food web. Thus, under the higher temperature and lower light levels anticipated for the next decades in the southern Baltic Sea, a higher share of smaller phytoplankton is expected. We conclude that considering the size structure of the phytoplankton community strongly improves the reliability of projections of climate change effects.
In most biodiversity studies, taxonomic diversity is the measure for the multiplicity of species and is often considered to represent functional diversity. However, trends in taxonomic diversity and functional diversity may differ, for example, when many functionally similar but taxonomically different species co-occur in a community. The differences between these diversity measures are of particular interest in diversity research for understanding diversity patterns and their underlying mechanisms. We analysed a temporally highly resolved 20-year time series of lake phytoplankton to determine whether taxonomic diversity and functional diversity exhibit similar or contrasting seasonal patterns. We also calculated the functional mean of the community in n-dimensional trait space for each sampling day to gain further insights into the seasonal dynamics of the functional properties of the community. We found an overall weak positive relationship between taxonomic diversity and functional diversity with a distinct seasonal pattern. The two diversity measures showed synchronous behaviour from early spring to mid-summer and a more complex and diverging relationship from autumn to late winter. The functional mean of the community exhibited a recurrent annual pattern with the most prominent changes before and after the clear-water phase. From late autumn to winter, the functional mean of the community and functional diversity were relatively constant while taxonomic diversity declined, suggesting competitive exclusion during this period. A further decline in taxonomic diversity concomitant with increasing functional diversity in late winter to early spring is seen as a result of niche diversification together with competitive exclusion. Under these conditions, several different sets of traits are suitable to thrive, but within one set of functional traits only one, or very few, morphotypes can persist. Taxonomic diversity alone is a weak descriptor of trait diversity in phytoplankton. However, the combined analysis of taxonomic diversity and functional diversity, along with the functional mean of the community, allows for deeper insights into temporal patterns of community assembly and niche diversification.
In population ecology, there has been a fundamental controversy about the relative importance of competition- driven (density-dependent) population regulation vs. abiotic influences such as temperature and precipitation. The same issue arises at the community level; are population sizes driven primarily by changes in the abundances of cooccurring competitors (i.e., compensatory dynamics), or do most species have a common response to environmental factors? Competitive interactions have had a central place in ecological theory, dating back to Gleason, Volterra, Hutchison and MacArthur, and, more recently, Hubbell's influential unified neutral theory of biodiversity and biogeography. If competitive interactions are important in driving year-to-year fluctuations in abundance, then changes in the abundance of one species should generally be accompanied by compensatory changes in the abundances of others. Thus, one necessary consequence of strong compensatory forces is that, on average, species within communities will covary negatively. Here we use measures of community covariance to assess the prevalence of negative covariance in 41 natural communities comprising different taxa at a range of spatial scales. We found that species in natural communities tended to covary positively rather than negatively, the opposite of what would be expected if compensatory dynamics were important. These findings suggest that abiotic factors such as temperature and precipitation are more important than competitive interactions in driving year-to-year fluctuations in species abundance within communities.
In the deep, cooler layers of clear, nutrient-poor, stratified water bodies, phytoplankton often accumulate to form a thin band or "deep chlorophyll maximum" (DCM) of ecological importance. Under such conditions, these photosynthetic microorganisms may be close to their physiological compensation points and to the boundaries of their ecological tolerance. To grow and survive any resulting energy limitation, DCM species are thought to exhibit highly specialised or flexible acclimation strategies. In this study, we investigated several of the adaptable ecophysiological strategies potentially employed by one such species, Chlamydomonas acidophila: a motile, unicellular, phytoplanktonic flagellate that often dominates the DCM in stratified, acidic lakes. Physiological and behavioural responses were measured in laboratory experiments and were subsequently related to field observations. Results showed moderate light compensation points for photosynthesis and growth at 22A degrees C, relatively low maintenance costs, a behavioural preference for low to moderate light, and a decreased compensation point for photosynthesis at 8A degrees C. Even though this flagellated alga exhibited a physiologically mediated diel vertical migration in the field, migrating upwards slightly during the day, the ambient light reaching the DCM was below compensation points, and so calculations of daily net photosynthetic gain showed that survival by purely autotrophic means was not possible. Results suggested that strategies such as low-light acclimation, small-scale directed movements towards light, a capacity for mixotrophic growth, acclimation to low temperature, in situ exposure to low O-2, high CO2 and high P concentrations, and an avoidance of predation, could combine to help overcome this energetic dilemma and explain the occurrence of the DCM. Therefore, corroborating the deceptive ecophysiological complexity of this and similar organisms, only a suite of complementary strategies can facilitate the survival of C. acidophila in this DCM.
Complex transient dynamics of stage-structured populations in response to environmental changes
(2013)
Stage structures of populations can have a profound influence on their dynamics. However, not much is known about the transient dynamics that follow a disturbance in such systems. Here we combined chemostat experiments with dynamical modeling to study the response of the phytoplankton species Chlorella vulgaris to press perturbations. From an initially stable steady state, we altered either the concentration or dilution rate of a growth-limiting resource. This disturbance induced a complex transient response-characterized by the possible onset of oscillations-before population numbers relaxed to a new steady state. Thus, cell numbers could initially change in the opposite direction of the long-term change. We present quantitative indexes to characterize the transients and to show that the dynamic response is dependent on the degree of synchronization among life stages, which itself depends on the state of the population before perturbation. That is, we show how identical future steady states can be approached via different transients depending on the initial population structure. Our experimental results are supported by a size-structured model that accounts for interplay between cell-cycle and population-level processes and that includes resource-dependent variability in cell size. Our results should be relevant to other populations with a stage structure including organisms of higher order.
Contrasting response of two shallow eutrophic cold temperate lakes to a partial winterkill of fish
(2015)
Food-web effects of winterkill are difficult to predict as the enhanced mortality of planktivorous fish may be counterbalanced by an even higher mortality of piscivores. We hypothesised that a winterkill in a clear and a turbid shallow lake would equalise their fish community composition, but seasonal plankton successions would differ between lakes. After a partial winterkill, we observed a reduction of fish biomass by 16 and 43% in a clear-water and a turbid small temperate lake, respectively. Fish biomass and piscivore shares (5% of fish biomass) were similar in both lakes after this winterkill, but young-of-the-year (YOY) abundances were higher in the turbid lake. Top-down control by crustaceans was only partly responsible for low phytoplankton biomass at the end of May following the winterkill in both lakes. Summer phytoplankton biomass remained low in the clear-water lake despite high abundances of YOY fish (mainly roach). In contrast, the crustacean biomass of the turbid lake was reduced in summer by a high YOY abundance (sunbleak and roach), leading to a strong increase in phytoplankton biomass. The YOY abundance of fish in shallow eutrophic lakes may thus be more important for their summer phytoplankton development after winterkill than the relative abundance of piscivores.
Trait-based approaches have broadened our understanding of how the composition of ecological communities responds to environmental drivers. This research has mainly focussed on abiotic factors and competition determining the community trait distribution, while effects of trophic interactions on trait dynamics, if considered at all, have been studied for two trophic levels at maximum. However, natural food webs are typically at least tritrophic. This enables indirect interactions of traits and biomasses among multiple trophic levels leading to underexplored effects on food web dynamics. Here, we demonstrate the occurrence of mutual trait adjustment among three trophic levels in a natural plankton food web (Lake Constance) and in a corresponding mathematical model. We found highly recurrent seasonal biomass and trait dynamics, where herbivorous zooplankton increased its size, and thus its ability to counter phytoplankton defense, before phytoplankton defense actually increased. This is contrary to predictions from bitrophic systems where counter-defense of the consumer is a reaction to prey defense. In contrast, counter-defense of carnivores by size adjustment followed the defense of herbivores as expected. By combining observations and model simulations, we show how the reversed trait dynamics at the two lower trophic levels result from a "trophic biomass-trait cascade" driven by the carnivores. Trait adjustment between two trophic levels can therefore be altered by biomass or trait changes of adjacent trophic levels. Hence, analyses of only pairwise trait adjustment can be misleading in natural food webs, while multitrophic trait-based approaches capture indirect biomass-trait interactions among multiple trophic levels.