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Due to limited public budgets and the need to economize, the analysis of costs of hazard mitigation and emergency management of natural hazards becomes increasingly important for public natural hazard and risk management. In recent years there has been a growing body of literature on the estimation of losses which supported to help to determine benefits of measures in terms of prevented losses. On the contrary, the costs of mitigation are hardly addressed. This paper thus aims to shed some light on expenses for mitigation and emergency services. For this, we analysed the annual costs of mitigation efforts in four regions/countries of the Alpine Arc: Bavaria (Germany), Tyrol (Austria), South Tyrol (Italy) and Switzerland. On the basis of PPP values (purchasing power parities), annual expenses on public safety ranged from EUR 44 per capita in the Free State of Bavaria to EUR 216 in the Autonomous Province of South Tyrol. To analyse the (variable) costs for emergency services in case of an event, we used detailed data from the 2005 floods in the Federal State of Tyrol (Austria) as well as aggregated data from the 2002 floods in Germany. The analysis revealed that multi-hazards, the occurrence and intermixture of different natural hazard processes, contribute to increasing emergency costs. Based on these findings, research gaps and recommendations for costing Alpine natural hazards are discussed.
Flood loss modeling is an important component within flood risk assessments. Traditionally, stage-damage functions are used for the estimation of direct monetary damage to buildings. Although it is known that such functions are governed by large uncertainties, they are commonly applied - even in different geographical regions - without further validation, mainly due to the lack of real damage data. Until now, little research has been done to investigate the applicability and transferability of such damage models to other regions. In this study, the last severe flood event in the Austrian Lech Valley in 2005 was simulated to test the performance of various damage functions from different geographical regions in Central Europe for the residential sector. In addition to common stage-damage curves, new functions were derived from empirical flood loss data collected in the aftermath of recent flood events in neighboring Germany. Furthermore, a multi-parameter flood loss model for the residential sector was adapted to the study area and also evaluated with official damage data. The analysis reveals that flood loss functions derived from related and more similar regions perform considerably better than those from more heterogeneous data sets of different regions and flood events. While former loss functions estimate the observed damage well, the latter overestimate the reported loss clearly. To illustrate the effect of model choice on the resulting uncertainty of damage estimates, the current flood risk for residential areas was calculated. In the case of extreme events like the 300 yr flood, for example, the range of losses to residential buildings between the highest and the lowest estimates amounts to a factor of 18, in contrast to properly validated models with a factor of 2.3. Even if the risk analysis is only performed for residential areas, our results reveal evidently that a carefree model transfer in other geographical regions might be critical. Therefore, we conclude that loss models should at least be selected or derived from related regions with similar flood and building characteristics, as far as no model validation is possible. To further increase the general reliability of flood loss assessment in the future, more loss data and more comprehensive loss data for model development and validation are needed.
Background/Aims: Carbon monoxide (CO) interferes with cytochrome-dependent cellular functions and acts as gaseous transmitter. CO is released from CO-releasing molecules (CORM) including tricarbonyl-dichlororuthenium (II) dimer (CORM-2), molecules considered for the treatment of several disorders including vascular dysfunction, inflammation, tissue ischemia and organ rejection. Cytochrome P450-sensitive function include formation of 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D-3 (1,25(OH)(2)D-3) by renal 25-hydroxyvitamin D-3 1-alpha-hydroxylase (Cyp27b1). The enzyme is regulated by PTH, FGF23 and klotho. 1,25(OH)(2)D-3 regulates Ca2+ and phosphate transport as well as klotho expression. The present study explored, whether CORM-2 influences 1,25(OH)(2)D-3 formation and klotho expression. Methods: Mice were treated with intravenous CORM-2 (20 mg/kg body weight). Plasma 1,25(OH)(2)D-3 and FGF23 concentrations were determined by ELISA, phosphate, calcium and creatinine concentrations by colorimetric methods, transcript levels by quantitative RT-PCR and protein expression by western blotting. Fgf23 mRNA transcript levels were further determined in rat osteosarcoma UMR106 cells without or with prior treatment for 24 hours with 20 mu M CORM-2. Results: CORM-2 injection within 24 hours significantly increased FGF23 plasma levels and decreased 1,25(OH)(2)D-3 plasma levels, renal Cyp27b1 gene expression as well as renal klotho protein abundance and transcript levels. Moreover, treatment of UMR106 cells with CORM-2 significantly increased Fgf23 transcript levels. Conclusion: CO-releasing molecule CORM-2 enhances FGF23 expression and release and decreases klotho expression and 1,25(OH)(2)D-3 synthesis.
Background: The biological properties of oxidized and non-oxidized PTH are substantially different. Oxidized PTH (oxPTH) loses its PTH receptor-stimulating properties, whereas non-oxidized PTH (n-oxPTH) is a full agonist of the receptor. This was described in more than 20 well published studies in the 1970(s) and 80(s). However, PTH oxidation has been ignored during the development of PTH assays for clinical use so far. Even the nowadays used third generation assay systems do not consider oxidation of PTH. We recently developed an assay to differentiate between oxPTH and n-oxPTH. In the current study we established normal values for this assay system. Furthermore, we compare the ratio of oxPTH to n-oxPTH in different population with chronic renal failure: 620 children with renal failure stage 2-4 of the 4C study, 342 adult patients on dialysis, and 602 kidney transplant recipients. In addition, we performed modeling of the interaction of either oxPTH or n-oxPTH with the PTH receptor using biophysical structure approaches. Results: The children had the highest mean as well as maximum n-oxPTH concentrations as compared to adult patients (both patients on dialysis as well as kidney transplant recipients). The relationship between oxPTH and n-oxPTH of individual patients varied substantially in all three populations with renal impairment. The analysis of n-oxPTH in 89 healthy control subjects revealed that n-oxPTH concentrations in patient with renal failure were higher as compared to healthy adult controls (2.25-fold in children with renal failure, 1.53-fold in adult patients on dialysis, and 1.56-fold in kidney transplant recipients, respectively). Computer assisted biophysical structure modeling demonstrated, however, minor sterical- and/or electrostatic changes in oxPTH and n-oxPTH. This indicated that PTH oxidation may induce refolding of PTH and hence alters PTH-PTH receptor interaction via oxidation induced three-dimensional structure alteration of PTH. Conclusion: A huge proportion of circulating PTH measured by current state-of-the-art assay systems is oxidized and thus not biologically active. The relationship between oxPTH and n-oxPTH of individual patients varied substantially. Non-oxidized PTH concentrations are 1.5 - 2.25 fold higher in patients with renal failure as compared to health controls. Measurements of n-oxPTH may reflect the hormone status more precise. The iPTH measures describes most likely oxidative stress in patients with renal failure rather than the PTH hormone status. This, however, needs to be demonstrated in further clinical studies.
Eye-movement research on implicit prosody has found effects of lexical stress on syntactic ambiguity resolution, suggesting that metrical well-formedness constraints interact with syntactic category assignment. Building on these findings, the present eyetracking study investigates whether contextual bias can modulate the effects of metrical structure on syntactic ambiguity resolution in silent reading. Contextual bias and potential stress-clash in the ambiguous region were crossed in a 2 x 2 design. Participants read biased context sentences followed by temporarily ambiguous test sentences. In the three-word ambiguous region, main effects of lexical stress were dominant, while early effects of context were absent. Potential stress clash yielded a significant increase in first-pass regressions and re-reading probability across the three words. In the disambiguating region, the disambiguating word itself showed increased processing difficulty (lower skipping and increased re-reading probability) when the disambiguation engendered a stress clash configuration, while the word immediately following showed main effects of context in those same measures. Taken together, effects of lexical stress upon eye movements were swift and pervasive across first-pass and second-pass measures, while effects of context were relatively delayed. These results indicate a strong role for implicit meter in guiding parsing, one that appears insensitive to higher-level constraints. Our findings are problematic for two classes of models, the two-stage garden-path model and the constraint-based competition-integration model, but can be explained by a variation on the two-stage model, the unrestricted race model.
Sightseeing in the poorest quarters of southern hemisphere cities has been observed occurring in Cape Town, Rio de Janeiro, Mumbai and many other cities. The increasing global interest in touring poor urban environments is accompanied by a strong morally charged debate; so far, this debate has not been critically addressed. This article avoids asking if slum tourism is good or bad, but instead seeks a second-order observation, i.e. to investigate under what conditions the social praxis of slum tourism is considered as good or bad, by processing information on esteem or dis-esteem among tourists and tour providers. Special attention is given to any relation between morality and place, and the thesis posited is that the moral charging of slum tourism is dependent on the presence of specific preconceived notions of slums and poverty. This shall be clarified by means of references to two empirical case studies carried out in (1) Cape Town in 2007 and 2008 and (2) Mumbai in 2009.
BACKGROUND: Mirror therapy (MT) was found to improve motor function after stroke, but its neural mechanisms remain unclear, especially in single stroke patients.
OBJECTIVES: The following imaging study was designed to compare brain activation patterns evoked by the mirror illusion in single stroke patients with normal subjects.
METHODS: Fifteen normal volunteers and five stroke patients with severe arm paresis were recruited. Cerebral activations during movement mirroring by means of a video chain were recorded with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Single-subject analysis was performed using SPM 8.
RESULTS: For normal subjects, ten and thirteen subjects displayed lateralized cerebral activations evoked by the mirror illusion while moving their right and left hand respectively. The magnitude of this effect in the precuneus contralateral to the seen hand was not dependent on movement speed or subjective experience. Negative correlation of activation strength with age was found for the right hand only. The activation pattern in stroke patients is comparable to that of normal subjects and present in four out of five patients.
CONCLUSIONS: In summary, the mirror illusion can elicit cerebral activation contralateral to the perceived hand in the majority of single normal subjects, but not in all of them. This is similar even in stroke patients with severe hemiparesis.
Changes in rainfall interception along a secondary forest succession gradient in lowland Panama
(2013)
Secondary forests are rapidly expanding in tropical regions. Yet, despite the importance of understanding the hydrological consequences of land-cover dynamics, the relationship between forest succession and canopy interception is poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is unfortunate because rainfall interception plays an important role in regional water cycles and needs to be quantified for many modeling purposes. To help close this knowledge gap, we designed a throughfall monitoring study along a secondary succession gradient in a tropical forest region of Panama. The investigated gradient comprised 20 forest patches 3 to 130 yr old. We sampled each patch with a minimum of 20 funnel-type throughfall collectors over a continuous 2month period that had nearly 900 mm of rain. During the same period, we acquired forest inventory data and derived several forest structural attributes. We then applied simple and multiple regression models (Bayesian model averaging, BMA) and identified those vegetation parameters that had the strongest influence on the variation of canopy interception. Our analyses yielded three main findings. First, canopy interception changed rapidly during forest succession. After only a decade, throughfall volumes approached levels that are typical for mature forests. Second, a parsimonious (simple linear regression) model based on the ratio of the basal area of small stems to the total basal area outperformed more complex multivariate models (BMA approach). Third, based on complementary forest inventory data, we show that the influence of young secondary forests on interception in realworld fragmented landscapes might be detectable only in regions with a substantial fraction of young forests. Our re-sults suggest that where entire catchments undergo forest regrowth, initial stages of succession may be associated with a substantial decrease of streamflow generation. Our results further highlight the need to study hydrological processes in all forest succession stages, including early ones.
The dynamics of external contributions to the geomagnetic field is investigated by applying time-frequency methods to magnetic observatory data. Fractal models and multiscale analysis enable obtaining maximum quantitative information related to the short-term dynamics of the geomagnetic field activity. The stochastic properties of the horizontal component of the transient external field are determined by searching for scaling laws in the power spectra. The spectrum fits a power law with a scaling exponent beta, a typical characteristic of self-affine time-series. Local variations in the power-law exponent are investigated by applying wavelet analysis to the same time-series. These analyses highlight the self-affine properties of geomagnetic perturbations and their persistence. Moreover, they show that the main phases of sudden storm disturbances are uniquely characterized by a scaling exponent varying between 1 and 3, possibly related to the energy contained in the external field. These new findings suggest the existence of a long-range dependence, the scaling exponent being an efficient indicator of geomagnetic activity and singularity detection. These results show that by using magnetogram regularity to reflect the magnetosphere activity, a theoretical analysis of the external geomagnetic field based on local power-law exponents is possible.
Background: Low birth weight (LBW) might be a risk factor for acquiring lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) associated with disease related complications in early childhood. HFMD, a frequent viral infection in southern China, is a leading cause of lower respiratory tract infections in children. We analyzed whether LBW is a risk factor for children with HFMD to develop lower respiratory tract infections.
Methods: A total of 298 children with HFMD, admitted to a hospital in Qingyuan city, Guangdong province, were recruited. Demographic data and clinical parameters such as serum glucose level and inflammatory markers including peripheral white blood cell count, serum C-reactive protein, and erythrocyte sedimentation rate were routinely collected on admission. Birth weight data were derived from birth records.
Results: Mean birth weight (BW) was 167 g lower in patients with HFMD and LRTIs as compared to patients with solely HFMD (p = 0.022) and the frequency of birth weight below the tenth percentile was significantly higher in patients with HFMD and LRTIs (p = 0.002).
Conclusions: The results of the study show that low birth weight is associated with a higher incidence of lower respiratory tract infections in young children with HFMD.