Brief communication: impact forecasting could substantially improve the emergency management of deadly floods: case study July 2021 floods in Germany
- Floods affect more people than any other natural hazard; thus flood warning and disaster management are of utmost importance. However, the operational hydrological forecasts do not provide information about affected areas and impact but only discharge and water levels at gauges. We show that a simple hydrodynamic model operating with readily available data is able to provide highly localized information on the expected flood extent and impacts, with simulation times enabling operational flood warning. We demonstrate that such an impact forecast would have indicated the deadly potential of the 2021 flood in western Germany with sufficient lead time.
| Author details: | Heiko ApelORCiDGND, Sergiy VorogushynORCiDGND, Bruno MerzORCiDGND |
|---|---|
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022 |
| ISSN: | 1561-8633 |
| ISSN: | 1684-9981 |
| Title of parent work (English): | Natural hazards and earth system sciences |
| Publisher: | European Geophysical Society |
| Place of publishing: | Katlenburg-Lindau |
| Publication type: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Date of first publication: | 2022/09/15 |
| Publication year: | 2022 |
| Release date: | 2024/08/22 |
| Volume: | 22 |
| Issue: | 9 |
| Number of pages: | 10 |
| First page: | 3005 |
| Last Page: | 3014 |
| Funding institution: | Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft (Klima-Initiative); Bundesministerium fur Bildung; und Forschung (KAHR projekt) [FKZ 01LR2102F] |
| Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Umweltwissenschaften und Geographie |
| DDC classification: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften |
| Peer review: | Referiert |
| Publishing method: | Open Access / Gold Open-Access |
| DOAJ gelistet | |
| License (German): |  CC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International |
