Dino Bindi, Matteo Picozzi, Daniele Spallarossa, Fabrice Cotton, Sreeram Reddy Kotha

• We derive a set of regional ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in the Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS-GMPE) and in the spectral acceleration (SA-GMPE) domains for the purpose of interpreting the between-event residuals in terms of source parameter variability. We analyze a dataset of about 65,000 recordings generated by 1400 earthquakes (moment magnitude 2: 5 <= M-w <= 6: 5, hypocentral distance R-hypo <= 150 km) that occurred in central Italy between January 2008 and October 2017. In a companion article (Bindi, Spallarossa, et al., 2018), the nonparametric acceleration source spectra were interpreted in terms of omega-square models modified to account for deviations from a high-frequency flat plateau through a parameter named k(source). Here, the GMPEs are derived considering the moment (M-w), the local (M-L), and the energy (M-e) magnitude scales, and the between-event residuals are computed as random effects. We show that the between-event residuals for the FAS-GMPE implementing M-w are correlated with stress drop, withWe derive a set of regional ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in the Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS-GMPE) and in the spectral acceleration (SA-GMPE) domains for the purpose of interpreting the between-event residuals in terms of source parameter variability. We analyze a dataset of about 65,000 recordings generated by 1400 earthquakes (moment magnitude 2: 5 <= M-w <= 6: 5, hypocentral distance R-hypo <= 150 km) that occurred in central Italy between January 2008 and October 2017. In a companion article (Bindi, Spallarossa, et al., 2018), the nonparametric acceleration source spectra were interpreted in terms of omega-square models modified to account for deviations from a high-frequency flat plateau through a parameter named k(source). Here, the GMPEs are derived considering the moment (M-w), the local (M-L), and the energy (M-e) magnitude scales, and the between-event residuals are computed as random effects. We show that the between-event residuals for the FAS-GMPE implementing M-w are correlated with stress drop, with correlation coefficients increasing with increasing frequency up to about 10 Hz. Contrariwise, the correlation is weak for the FAS-GMPEs implementing M-L and M-e, in particular between 2 and 5 Hz, where most of the corner frequencies lie. At higher frequencies, all models show a strong correlation with k(source). The correlation with the source parameters reflects in a different behavior of the standard deviation tau of the between-event residuals with frequency. Although tau is smaller for the FAS-GMPE using M-w below 1.5 Hz, at higher frequencies, the model implementing either M-L or M-e shows smaller values, with a reduction of about 30% at 3 Hz (i.e., from 0.3 for M-w to 0.1 for M-L). We conclude that considering magnitude scales informative for the stress-drop variability allows to reduce the between-event variability with a significant impact on the hazard assessment, in particular for studies in which the ergodic assumption on site is removed.…