Seismic moment evolution during hydraulic stimulations
- Analysis of past and present stimulation projects reveals that the temporal evolution and growth of maximum observed moment magnitudes may be linked directly to the injected fluid volume and hydraulic energy. Overall evolution of seismic moment seems independent of the tectonic stress regime and is most likely governed by reservoir specific parameters, such as the preexisting structural inventory. Data suggest that magnitudes can grow either in a stable way, indicating the constant propagation of self-arrested ruptures, or unbound, for which the maximum magnitude is only limited by the size of tectonic faults and fault connectivity. Transition between the two states may occur at any time during injection or not at all. Monitoring and traffic light systems used during stimulations need to account for the possibility of unstable rupture propagation from the very beginning of injection by observing the entire seismicity evolution in near-real time and at high resolution for an immediate reaction in injection strategy. Plain LanguageAnalysis of past and present stimulation projects reveals that the temporal evolution and growth of maximum observed moment magnitudes may be linked directly to the injected fluid volume and hydraulic energy. Overall evolution of seismic moment seems independent of the tectonic stress regime and is most likely governed by reservoir specific parameters, such as the preexisting structural inventory. Data suggest that magnitudes can grow either in a stable way, indicating the constant propagation of self-arrested ruptures, or unbound, for which the maximum magnitude is only limited by the size of tectonic faults and fault connectivity. Transition between the two states may occur at any time during injection or not at all. Monitoring and traffic light systems used during stimulations need to account for the possibility of unstable rupture propagation from the very beginning of injection by observing the entire seismicity evolution in near-real time and at high resolution for an immediate reaction in injection strategy. Plain Language Summary Predicting and controlling the size of earthquakes caused by fluid injection is currently the major concern of many projects associated with geothermal energy production. Here, we analyze the magnitude and seismic moment evolution with injection parameters for prominent geothermal and scientific projects to date. Evolution of seismicity seems to be largely independent of the tectonic stress background and seemingly depends on reservoir specific characteristics. We find that the maximum observed magnitudes relate linearly to the injected volume or hydraulic energy. A linear relation suggests stable growth of induced ruptures, as predicted by current models, or rupture growth may no longer depend on the stimulated volume but on tectonics. A system may change between the two states during the course of fluid injection. Close-by and high-resolution monitoring of seismic and hydraulic parameters in near-real time may help identify these fundamental changes in ample time to change injection strategy and manage maximum magnitudes.…
Author details: | Stephan BentzORCiD, Grzegorz KwiatekORCiD, Patricia Martinez-GarzonORCiDGND, Marco BohnhoffORCiDGND, Georg DresenORCiDGND |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086185 |
ISSN: | 0094-8276 |
ISSN: | 1944-8007 |
Title of parent work (English): | Geophysical research letters |
Publisher: | American Geophysical Union |
Place of publishing: | Washington |
Publication type: | Article |
Language: | English |
Date of first publication: | 2020/02/25 |
Publication year: | 2020 |
Release date: | 2023/10/10 |
Volume: | 47 |
Issue: | 5 |
Article number: | e2019GL086185 |
Number of pages: | 9 |
Funding institution: | Helmholtz Association through the Helmholtz Young Investigators Group; "Seismic and Aseismic Deformation in the brittle crust: implications for; Anthropogenic and Natural hazard"; DFG (German Science Foundation)German; Research Foundation (DFG) [KW84/4-1] |
Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Geowissenschaften |
DDC classification: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften |
Peer review: | Referiert |
Publishing method: | Open Access / Hybrid Open-Access |
License (German): | CC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International |