Application of single-station sigma and site-response characterization in a probabilistic Seismic-Hazard analysis for new uclear site
- Aleatory variability in ground-motion prediction, represented by the standard deviation (sigma) of a ground-motion prediction equation, exerts a very strong influence on the results of probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA). This is especially so at the low annual exceedance frequencies considered for nuclear facilities; in these cases, even small reductions in sigma can have a marked effect on the hazard estimates. Proper separation and quantification of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty can lead to defensible reductions in sigma. One such approach is the single-station sigma concept, which removes that part of sigma corresponding to repeatable site-specific effects. However, the site-to-site component must then be constrained by site-specific measurements or else modeled as epistemic uncertainty and incorporated into the modeling of site effects. The practical application of the single-station sigma concept, including the characterization of the dynamic properties of the site and the incorporation of site-responseAleatory variability in ground-motion prediction, represented by the standard deviation (sigma) of a ground-motion prediction equation, exerts a very strong influence on the results of probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA). This is especially so at the low annual exceedance frequencies considered for nuclear facilities; in these cases, even small reductions in sigma can have a marked effect on the hazard estimates. Proper separation and quantification of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty can lead to defensible reductions in sigma. One such approach is the single-station sigma concept, which removes that part of sigma corresponding to repeatable site-specific effects. However, the site-to-site component must then be constrained by site-specific measurements or else modeled as epistemic uncertainty and incorporated into the modeling of site effects. The practical application of the single-station sigma concept, including the characterization of the dynamic properties of the site and the incorporation of site-response effects into the hazard calculations, is illustrated for a PSHA conducted at a rock site under consideration for the potential construction of a nuclear power plant.…
Author details: | A. Rodriguez-Marek, E. M. Rathje, Julian J. Bommer, Frank ScherbaumORCiDGND, P. J. Stafford |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1785/0120130196 |
ISSN: | 0037-1106 |
ISSN: | 1943-3573 |
Title of parent work (English): | Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America |
Publisher: | Seismological Society of America |
Place of publishing: | Albany |
Publication type: | Article |
Language: | English |
Year of first publication: | 2014 |
Publication year: | 2014 |
Release date: | 2017/03/27 |
Volume: | 104 |
Issue: | 4 |
Number of pages: | 19 |
First page: | 1601 |
Last Page: | 1619 |
Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Geowissenschaften |
Peer review: | Referiert |
Institution name at the time of the publication: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Erd- und Umweltwissenschaften |