How biased are our models?
- Geophysical process simulations play a crucial role in the understanding of the subsurface. This understanding is required to provide, for instance, clean energy sources such as geothermal energy. However, the calibration and validation of the physical models heavily rely on state measurements such as temperature. In this work, we demonstrate that focusing analyses purely on measurements introduces a high bias. This is illustrated through global sensitivity studies. The extensive exploration of the parameter space becomes feasible through the construction of suitable surrogate models via the reduced basis method, where the bias is found to result from very unequal data distribution. We propose schemes to compensate for parts of this bias. However, the bias cannot be entirely compensated. Therefore, we demonstrate the consequences of this bias with the example of a model calibration.
Author details: | Denise DegenORCiDGND, Cameron SpoonerORCiDGND, Magdalena Scheck-WenderothORCiDGND, Mauro CacaceORCiDGND |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7133-2021 |
ISSN: | 1991-959X |
ISSN: | 1991-9603 |
Title of parent work (English): | Geoscientific model development : an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union |
Subtitle (English): | a case study of the alpine region |
Publisher: | Copernicus |
Place of publishing: | Göttingen |
Publication type: | Article |
Language: | English |
Date of first publication: | 2021/11/24 |
Publication year: | 2021 |
Release date: | 2024/04/24 |
Volume: | 14 |
Issue: | 11 |
Number of pages: | 21 |
First page: | 7133 |
Last Page: | 7153 |
Funding institution: | ESM consortium |
Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Geowissenschaften |
DDC classification: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften |
9 Geschichte und Geografie / 91 Geografie, Reisen / 910 Geografie, Reisen | |
Peer review: | Referiert |
Publishing method: | Open Access / Gold Open-Access |
DOAJ gelistet | |
License (German): | CC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International |