The progression of flood risk in southern Alberta since the 2013 flood
- After a century of semi-restricted floodplain development, Southern Alberta, Canada, was struck by the devastating 2013 Flood. Aging infrastructure and limited property-level floodproofing likely contributed to the $4-6 billion (CAD) losses. Following this catastrophe, Alberta has seen a revival in flood management, largely focused on structural protections. However, concurrent with the recent structural work was a 100,000+ increase in Calgary's population in the 5 years following the flood, leading to further densification of high-hazard areas. This study implements the novel Stochastic Object-based Flood damage Dynamic Assessment (SOFDA) model framework to quantify the progression of the direct-damage flood risk in a mature urban neighborhood after the 2013 Flood. Five years of remote-sensing data, property assessment records, and inundation simulations following the flood are used to construct the model. Results show that in these 5 years, vulnerability trends (like densification) have increased flood risk by 4%; however, recentAfter a century of semi-restricted floodplain development, Southern Alberta, Canada, was struck by the devastating 2013 Flood. Aging infrastructure and limited property-level floodproofing likely contributed to the $4-6 billion (CAD) losses. Following this catastrophe, Alberta has seen a revival in flood management, largely focused on structural protections. However, concurrent with the recent structural work was a 100,000+ increase in Calgary's population in the 5 years following the flood, leading to further densification of high-hazard areas. This study implements the novel Stochastic Object-based Flood damage Dynamic Assessment (SOFDA) model framework to quantify the progression of the direct-damage flood risk in a mature urban neighborhood after the 2013 Flood. Five years of remote-sensing data, property assessment records, and inundation simulations following the flood are used to construct the model. Results show that in these 5 years, vulnerability trends (like densification) have increased flood risk by 4%; however, recent structural mitigation projects have reduced overall flood risk by 47% for this case study. These results demonstrate that the flood management revival in Southern Alberta has largely been successful at reducing flood risk; however, the gains are under threat from continued development and densification absent additional floodproofing regulations.…
Verfasserangaben: | Seth BryantORCiD, Evan DaviesORCiD, David Sol, Sandy Davis |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12811 |
ISSN: | 1753-318X |
Titel des übergeordneten Werks (Englisch): | Journal of flood risk management |
Verlag: | Wiley-Blackwell |
Verlagsort: | Oxford |
Publikationstyp: | Wissenschaftlicher Artikel |
Sprache: | Englisch |
Datum der Erstveröffentlichung: | 21.06.2022 |
Erscheinungsjahr: | 2022 |
Datum der Freischaltung: | 13.05.2024 |
Freies Schlagwort / Tag: | Calgary; depth-damage functions; expected annual damages; flood risk; model; property level protection measures; risk analysis; risk dynamics |
Band: | 15 |
Ausgabe: | 3 |
Aufsatznummer: | e12811 |
Seitenanzahl: | 18 |
Fördernde Institution: | IBI Group; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada;; City of Calgary |
Organisationseinheiten: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Umweltwissenschaften und Geographie |
DDC-Klassifikation: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften |
Peer Review: | Referiert |
Publikationsweg: | Open Access / Gold Open-Access |
DOAJ gelistet | |
Lizenz (Deutsch): | CC-BY-NC-ND - Namensnennung, nicht kommerziell, keine Bearbeitungen 4.0 International |