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Integrated assessment model diagnostics

  • Integrated assessment models (IAMs) form a prime tool in informing about climate mitigation strategies. Diagnostic indicators that allow comparison across these models can help describe and explain differences in model projections. This increases transparency and comparability. Earlier, the IAM community has developed an approach to diagnose models (Kriegler (2015 Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 90 45–61)). Here we build on this, by proposing a selected set of well-defined indicators as a community standard, to systematically and routinely assess IAM behaviour, similar to metrics used for other modeling communities such as climate models. These indicators are the relative abatement index, emission reduction type index, inertia timescale, fossil fuel reduction, transformation index and cost per abatement value. We apply the approach to 17 IAMs, assessing both older as well as their latest versions, as applied in the IPCC 6th Assessment Report. The study shows that the approach can be easily applied and used to indentify key differencesIntegrated assessment models (IAMs) form a prime tool in informing about climate mitigation strategies. Diagnostic indicators that allow comparison across these models can help describe and explain differences in model projections. This increases transparency and comparability. Earlier, the IAM community has developed an approach to diagnose models (Kriegler (2015 Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 90 45–61)). Here we build on this, by proposing a selected set of well-defined indicators as a community standard, to systematically and routinely assess IAM behaviour, similar to metrics used for other modeling communities such as climate models. These indicators are the relative abatement index, emission reduction type index, inertia timescale, fossil fuel reduction, transformation index and cost per abatement value. We apply the approach to 17 IAMs, assessing both older as well as their latest versions, as applied in the IPCC 6th Assessment Report. The study shows that the approach can be easily applied and used to indentify key differences between models and model versions. Moreover, we demonstrate that this comparison helps to link model behavior to model characteristics and assumptions. We show that together, the set of six indicators can provide useful indication of the main traits of the model and can roughly indicate the general model behavior. The results also show that there is often a considerable spread across the models. Interestingly, the diagnostic values often change for different model versions, but there does not seem to be a distinct trend.zeige mehrzeige weniger

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Verfasserangaben:Mathijs HarmsenORCiD, Elmar KrieglerORCiDGND, Detlef P. van VuurenORCiDGND, Kaj-Ivar van der WijstORCiD, Gunnar LudererORCiDGND, Ryna Cui, Olivier Dessens, Laurent DrouetORCiD, Johannes Emmerling, Jennifer Faye Morris, Florian FosseORCiD, Dimitris Fragkiadakis, Kostas FragkiadakisORCiD, Panagiotis Fragkos, Oliver FrickoORCiD, Shinichiro FujimoriORCiD, David Gernaat, Céline Guivarch, Gokul Iyer, Panagiotis Karkatsoulis, Ilkka Keppo, Kimon Keramidas, Alexandre Köberle, Peter Kolp, Volker Krey, Christoph Krüger, Florian Leblanc, Shivika Mittal, Sergey Paltsev, Pedro RochedoORCiD, Bas J. van RuijvenORCiDGND, Ronald D. Sands, Fuminori Sano, Jessica StreflerORCiD, Eveline Vasquez Arroyo, Kenichi Wada, Behnam ZakeriORCiD
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abf964
ISSN:1748-9326
Titel des übergeordneten Werks (Englisch):Environmental research letters
Untertitel (Englisch):key indicators and model evolution
Verlag:IOP Publishing
Verlagsort:Bristol
Publikationstyp:Wissenschaftlicher Artikel
Sprache:Englisch
Datum der Erstveröffentlichung:10.05.2021
Erscheinungsjahr:2021
Datum der Freischaltung:10.01.2024
Freies Schlagwort / Tag:AR6; Assessment Report IPCC; climate policy; diagnostics; integrated assessment models; migration; renewable energy
Band:16
Ausgabe:5
Aufsatznummer:054046
Seitenanzahl:13
Organisationseinheiten:Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Wirtschaftswissenschaften / Fachgruppe Volkswirtschaftslehre
DDC-Klassifikation:6 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften / 69 Hausbau, Bauhandwerk / 690 Hausbau, Bauhandwerk
Peer Review:Referiert
Publikationsweg:Open Access / Gold Open-Access
DOAJ gelistet
Lizenz (Deutsch):License LogoCC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International
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