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The Aral Sea desiccation and related changes in hydroclimatic conditions on a regional level is a hot topic for past decades. The key problem of scientific research projects devoted to an investigation of modern Aral Sea basin hydrological regime is its discontinuous nature - the only limited amount of papers takes into account the complex runoff formation system entirely. Addressing this challenge we have developed a continuous prediction system for assessing freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea based on coupling stack of hydrological and data-driven models. Results show a good prediction skill and approve the possibility to develop a valuable water assessment tool which utilizes the power of classical physically based and modern machine learning models both for territories with complex water management system and strong water-related data scarcity. The source code and data of the proposed system is available on a Github page (https://github.com/SMASHIproject/IWRM2018).
In the comment on "Varves of the Dead Sea sedimentary record." Quaternary Science Reviews 215 (Ben Dor et al., 2019): 173-184. by R. Bookman, two recently published papers are suggested to prove that the interpretation of the laminated sedimentary sequence of the Dead Sea, deposited mostly during MIS2 and Holocene pluvials, as annual deposits (i.e., varves) is wrong. In the following response, we delineate several lines of evidence which coalesce to demonstrate that based on the vast majority of evidence, including some of the evidence provided in the comment itself, the interpretation of these sediments as varves is the more likely scientific conclusion. We further discuss the evidence brought up in the comment and its irrelevance and lack of robustness for addressing the question under discussion.
Secondary mica minerals collected from the Santa Helena (W- (Cu) mineralization) and Venise (W-Mo mineralization) endogenic breccia structures were Ar-40/Ar-39 dated. The muscovite Ar-40/Ar-39 data yielded 286.8 +/- 1.2 (+/- 1 sigma) Ma (samples 6Ha and 11Ha) which reflect the age of secondary muscovite formation probably from magmatic biotite or feldspar alteration. Sericite Ar-40/Ar-39 data yielded 280.9 +/- 1.2 (+/- 1 sigma) Ma to 279.0 +/- 1.1 (+/- 1 sigma) Ma (samples 6Hb and 11Hb) reflecting the age of greisen alteration (T similar to 300 degrees C) where the W- disseminated mineralization occurs. The muscovite 40Ar/39Ar data of 277.3 +/- 1.3 (+/- 1 sigma) Ma and 281.3 +/- 1.2 (+/- 1 sigma) Ma (samples 5 and 6) also reflect the age of muscovite (selvage) crystallized adjacent to molybdenite veins within the Venise breccia. Geochronological data obtained confirmed that the W mineralization at Santa Helena breccia is older than Mo-mineralization at Venise breccia. Also, the timing of hydrothermal circulation and the cooling history for the W-stage deposition was no longer than 7 Ma and 4 Ma for Mo-deposition.
Kim et al. recently measured the structure factor of deeply supercooled water droplets (Reports, 22 December 2017, p. 1589). We raise several concerns about their data analysis and interpretation. In our opinion, the reported data do not lead to clear conclusions about the origins of water’s anomalies.
Various techniques are utilized by the seismological community, extractive industries, energy and geoengineering companies to identify earthquake nucleation processes in close proximity to engineering operation points. These operations may comprise fluid extraction or injections, artificial water reservoir impoundments, open pit and deep mining, deep geothermal power generations or carbon sequestration. In this letter to the editor, we outline several lines of investigation that we suggest to follow to address the discrimination problem between natural seismicity and seismic events induced or triggered by geoengineering activities. These suggestions have been developed by a group of experts during several meetings and workshops, and we feel that their publication as a summary report is helpful for the geoscientific community. Specific investigation procedures and discrimination approaches, on which our recommendations are based, are also published in this Special Issue (SI) of Journal of Seismology.
The northward movement and collision of the Arabian plate with Eurasia generates compressive stresses and resulting shortening in Iran. Within the Alborz Mountains, North Iran, a complex and not well understood system of strike-slip and thrust faults accomodates a fundamental part of the NNE-SSW oriented shortening. On 28th of May 2004 the Mw 6.3 Baladeh earthquake hit the north-central Alborz Mountains. It is one of the rare and large events in this region in modern time and thus a seldom chance to study earthquake mechanisms and the local ongoing deformation processes. It also demonstrated the high vulnerability of this densily populated region.
Erweiterte Momententensorinversion und ihre seismotektonische Anwendung : Elbursgebirge, Nordiran
(2009)
Der Elburs im Norden Irans ist ein durch die Konvergenz der Arabischen und Eurasischen Platte verursachtes doppelt konvergentes Gebirge. Das komplexe System von Blattverschiebungen und Überschiebungen sowie die Aufnahme der Deformation im Elburs ist noch nicht sehr gut verstanden. Eine neu zu entwicklende Methode zur Inversion von seismischen Momententensoren, die unterschiedliche Beobachtungen verschiedener Stationstypen kombiniert invertiert, soll die bisher hauptsächlich strukturelle/geomorphologische Datengrundlage um Momententensoren auch kleinerer Magnituden (M < 4.5) erweitern. Dies ist die notwendige Grundlage für detaillierte seismotektonische Studien, die wiederum die Basis für seismische Gefährdungsanalysen bilden.
The complex system of strike-slip and thrust faults in the Alborz Mountains, Northern Iran, are not well understood yet. Mainly structural and geomorphic data are available so far. As a more extensive base for seismotectonic studies and seismic hazard analysis we plan to do a comprehensive seismic moment tensor study also from smaller magnitudes (M < 4.5) by developing a new algorithm. Here, we present first preliminary results.
An essential, respected, and critical aspect of the modern practice of science and scientific publishing is peer review. The process of peer review facilitates best practices in scientific conduct and communication, ensuring that manuscripts published as accurate, valuable, and clearly communicated. The over 152 papers published in Tectonics in 2017 benefit from the time, effort, and expertise of our reviewers who have provided thoughtfully considered advice on each manuscript. This role is critical to advancing our understanding of the evolution of the continents and their margins, as these reviews lead to even clearer and higher-quality papers. In 2017, the over 423 papers submitted to Tectonics were the beneficiaries of more than 786 reviews provided by 562 members of the tectonics community and related disciplines. To everyone who has volunteered their time and intellect to peer reviewing, thank you for helping Tectonics and all other AGU Publications provide the best science possible.
An essential, respected, and critical aspect of the modern practice of science and scientific publishing is peer review. The process of peer review facilitates best practices in scientific conduct and communication, ensuring that manuscripts published are as accurate, valuable, and clearly communicated. The over 216 papers published in Tectonics in 2018 benefit from the time, effort, and expertise of our reviewers who have provided thoughtfully considered advice on each manuscript. This role is critical to advancing our understanding of the evolution of the continents and their margins, as these reviews lead to even clearer and higher-quality papers. In 2018, the over 443 papers submitted to Tectonics were the beneficiaries of more than 1,010 reviews provided by 668 members of the tectonics community and related disciplines. To everyone who has volunteered their time and intellect to peer reviewing, thank you for helping Tectonics and all other AGU Publications provide the best science possible.
One paragraph of the manuscript of the paper has been inadvertently omitted in the very final stage of its compilation due to a technical mistake. Since this paragraph discusses the declustering of the used earthquake catalogue and is therefore necessary for the understanding of the seismicity data preprocessing, the authors decided to provide this paragraph in form of a correction. The respective paragraph belongs to chapter 2 of the paper, where it was placed originally, and should be inserted into the published paper before the second to the last paragraph. The omitted text reads as follows:
Foreword
(2019)
We study the rupture processes of Iquique earthquake 8.1 (2014/04/01) and its largest aftershock 7.7 (2014/04/03) that ruptured the North Chile subduction zone. High-rate Global Positioning System (GPS) recordings and strong motion data are used to reconstruct the evolution of the slip amplitude, rise time and rupture time of both earthquakes. A two-step inversion scheme is assumed, by first building prior models for both earthquakes from the inversion of the estimated static displacements and then, kinematic inversions in the frequency domain are carried out taken into account this prior information. The preferred model for the mainshock exhibits a seismic moment of 1.73 × 1021 Nm ( 8.1) and maximum slip of ∼9 m, while the aftershock model has a seismic moment of 3.88 × 1020 ( 7.7) and a maximum slip of ∼3 m. For both earthquakes, the final slip distributions show two asperities (a shallow one and a deep one) separated by an area with significant slip deficit. This suggests a segmentation along-dip which might be related to a change of the dipping angle of the subducting slab inferred from gravimetric data. Along-strike, the areas where the seismic ruptures stopped seem to be well correlated with geological features observed from geophysical information (high-resolution bathymetry, gravimetry and coupling maps) that are representative of the long-term segmentation of the subduction margin. Considering the spatially limited portions that were broken by these two earthquakes, our results support the idea that the seismic gap is not filled yet.
Storm runoff from the Marikina River Basin frequently causes flood events in the Philippine capital region Metro Manila. This paper presents and evaluates a system to predict short-term runoff from the upper part of that basin (380km(2)). It was designed as a possible component of an operational warning system yet to be installed. For the purpose of forecast verification, hindcasts of streamflow were generated for a period of 15 months with a time-continuous, conceptual hydrological model. The latter was fed with real-time observations of rainfall. Both ground observations and weather radar data were tested as rainfall forcings. The radar-based precipitation estimates clearly outperformed the raingauge-based estimates in the hydrological verification. Nevertheless, the quality of the deterministic short-term runoff forecasts was found to be limited. For the radar-based predictions, the reduction of variance for lead times of 1, 2 and 3hours was 0.61, 0.62 and 0.54, respectively, with reference to a no-forecast scenario, i.e. persistence. The probability of detection for major increases in streamflow was typically less than 0.5. Given the significance of flood events in the Marikina Basin, more effort needs to be put into the reduction of forecast errors and the quantification of remaining uncertainties.
Rapid and robust characterization of large earthquakes in terms of their spatial extent and temporal duration is of high importance for disaster mitigation and early warning applications. Backtracking of seismic P-waves was successfully used by several authors to image the rupture process of the great Sumatra earthquake (26.12.2004) using short period and broadband arrays. We follow here an approach of Walker et al. to backtrack and stack broadband waveforms from global network stations using traveltimes for a global Earth model to obtain the overall spatio-temporal development of the energy radiation of large earthquakes in a quick and robust way. We present results for selected events with well studied source processes (Kokoxili 14.11.2001, Tokachi-Oki 25.09.2003, Nias 28.03.2005). Further, we apply the technique in a semi-real time fashion to broadband data of earthquakes with a broadband magnitude >= 7 (roughly corresponding to Mw 6.5). Processing is based on first automatic detection messages from the GEOFON extended virtual network (GEVN).
Dissolved CO2 storage in geological formations with low pressure, low risk and large capacities
(2017)
Geological CO2 storage is a mitigation technology to reduce CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. However, major concerns are the pressure increase and saltwater displacement in the mainly targeted deep groundwater aquifers due to injection of supercritical CO2. The suggested solution is storage of CO2 exclusively in the dissolved state. In our exemplary regional case study of the North East German Basin based on a highly resolved temperature and pressure distribution model and a newly developed reactive transport coupling, we have quantified that 4.7 Gt of CO2 can be stored in solution compared to 1.5 Gt in the supercritical state.
Integration and development of the energy supply in China and worldwide is a challenge for the years to come. The innovative idea presented here is based on an extension of the “power-to-gas-to-power” technology by establishing a closed carbon cycle. It is an implementation of a low-carbon energy system based on carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) to store and reuse wind and solar energy. The Chenjiacun storage project in China compares well with the German case study for the towns Potsdam and Brandenburg/Havel in the Federal State of Brandenburg based on the Ketzin pilot site for CCS.
Water management tools are necessary to guarantee the preservation of natural resources while ensuring optimum utilization. Linear regression models are a simple and quick solution for creating prognostic capabilities. Multivariate models show higher precision than univariate models. In the case of Waiwera, implementation of individual production rates is more accurate than applying just the total production rate. A maximum of approximately 1,075 m3/day can be pumped to ensure a water level of at least 0.5 m a.s.l. in the monitoring well. The model should be renewed annually to implement new data and current water level trends to keep the quality.
Organic or inorganic (A) metal (M) halide (X) perovskites (AMX(3)) are semiconductor materials setting the basis for the development of highly efficient, low-cost and multijunction solar energy conversion devices. The best efficiencies nowadays are obtained with mixed compositions containing methylammonium, formamidinium, Cs and Rb as well as iodine, bromine and chlorine as anions. The understanding of fundamental properties such as crystal structure and its effect on the band gap, as well as their phase stability is essential. In this systematic study X-ray diffraction and photoluminescense spectroscopy were applied to evaluate structural and optoelectronic properties of hybrid perovskites with mixed compositions.
Receiver functions are a good tool to investigate the seismotectonic structure beneath the a seismic station. In this study we apply the method to stations situated on or near Sumatra to find constraints on a more detailed velocity model which should improve earthquake localisation. We estimate shallow Moho-depths (~ 21 km) close to the trench and depths of ~30 km at greater distances. First evidences for the dip direction of the slab of ~60° are provided. Receiver functions were calculated for 20 stations for altogether 110 earthquakes in the distance range between 30° and 95° from the receiver. However the number of receiver functions per station is strongly variable as it depends on the installation date, the signal-to-noise-ratio of the station and the reliability of the acquisition.
Foreword
(2018)
Preface
(2018)
This special issue is the result of several fruitful conference sessions on disturbance hydrology, which started at the 2013 AGU Fall Meeting in San Francisco and have continued every year since. The stimulating presentations and discussions surrounding those sessions have focused on understanding both the disruption of hydrologic functioning following discrete disturbances, as well as the subsequent recovery or change within the affected watershed system. Whereas some hydrologic disturbances are directly linked to anthropogenic activities, such as resource extraction, the contributions to this special issue focus primarily on those with indirect or less pronounced human involvement, such as bark-beetle infestation, wildfire, and other natural hazards. However, human activities are enhancing the severity and frequency of these seemingly natural disturbances, thereby contributing to acute hydrologic problems and hazards. Major research challenges for our increasingly disturbed planet include the lack of continuous pre and postdisturbance monitoring, hydrologic impacts that vary spatially and temporally based on environmental and hydroclimatic conditions, and the preponderance of overlapping or compounding disturbance sequences. In addition, a conceptual framework for characterizing commonalities and differences among hydrologic disturbances is still in its infancy. In this introduction to the special issue, we advance the fusion of concepts and terminology from ecology and hydrology to begin filling this gap. We briefly explore some preliminary approaches for comparing different disturbances and their hydrologic impacts, which provides a starting point for further dialogue and research progress.