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Evaluating model outputs using integrated global speleothem records of climate change since the last glacial

  • Although quantitative isotope data from speleothems has been used to evaluate isotope-enabled model simulations, currently no consensus exists regarding the most appropriate methodology through which to achieve this. A number of modelling groups will be running isotope-enabled palaeoclimate simulations in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, so it is timely to evaluate different approaches to using the speleothem data for data–model comparisons. Here, we illustrate this using 456 globally distributed speleothem δ18O records from an updated version of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL) database and palaeoclimate simulations generated using the ECHAM5-wiso isotope-enabled atmospheric circulation model. We show that the SISAL records reproduce the first-order spatial patterns of isotopic variability in the modern day, strongly supporting the application of this dataset for evaluating model-derived isotope variability into the past. However, the discontinuous nature of many speleothemAlthough quantitative isotope data from speleothems has been used to evaluate isotope-enabled model simulations, currently no consensus exists regarding the most appropriate methodology through which to achieve this. A number of modelling groups will be running isotope-enabled palaeoclimate simulations in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, so it is timely to evaluate different approaches to using the speleothem data for data–model comparisons. Here, we illustrate this using 456 globally distributed speleothem δ18O records from an updated version of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL) database and palaeoclimate simulations generated using the ECHAM5-wiso isotope-enabled atmospheric circulation model. We show that the SISAL records reproduce the first-order spatial patterns of isotopic variability in the modern day, strongly supporting the application of this dataset for evaluating model-derived isotope variability into the past. However, the discontinuous nature of many speleothem records complicates the process of procuring large numbers of records if data–model comparisons are made using the traditional approach of comparing anomalies between a control period and a given palaeoclimate experiment. To circumvent this issue, we illustrate techniques through which the absolute isotope values during any time period could be used for model evaluation. Specifically, we show that speleothem isotope records allow an assessment of a model's ability to simulate spatial isotopic trends. Our analyses provide a protocol for using speleothem isotope data for model evaluation, including screening the observations to take into account the impact of speleothem mineralogy on δ18O values, the optimum period for the modern observational baseline and the selection of an appropriate time window for creating means of the isotope data for palaeo-time-slices.show moreshow less

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Author details:Laia Comas-BruORCiD, Sandy P. HarrisonORCiD, Martin WernerORCiD, Kira RehfeldORCiDGND, Nick ScroxtonORCiD, Cristina Veiga-PiresORCiD, Syed Masood Ahmad, Yassine Ait Brahim, Sahar Amirnezhad Mozhdehi, Monica Arienzo, Kamolphat Atsawawaranunt, Andy BakerORCiD, Kerstin Braun, Sebastian Franz Martin BreitenbachORCiDGND, Yuval Burstyn, Sakonvan Chawchai, Andrea Columbu, Michael Deininger, Attila Demeny, Bronwyn Dixon, Istvan Gabor Hatvani, Jun Hu, Nikita Kaushal, Zoltan Kern, Inga LabuhnORCiD, Matthew S. Lachniet, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Andrew Lorrey, Monika Markowska, Carole Nehme, Valdir F. Novello, Jessica Oster, Carlos Perez-Mejias, Robyn Pickering, Natasha Sekhon, Xianfeng WangORCiD, Sophie WarkenORCiD, Tim Atkinson, Avner Ayalon, James Baldini, Miryam Bar-Matthews, Juan Pablo Bernal, Ronny Boch, Andrea BorsatoORCiD, Meighan Boyd, Chris Brierley, Yanjun CaiORCiD, Stacy Carolin, Hai Cheng, Silviu Constantin, Isabelle CouchoudORCiD, Francisco Cruz, Rhawn Denniston, Virgil Dragusin, Wuhui Duan, Vasile Ersek, Martin Finne, Dominik Fleitmann, Jens Bernd FohlmeisterGND, Amy Frappier, Dominique Genty, Steffen HolzkamperORCiD, Philip Hopley, Vanessa Johnston, Gayatri Kathayat, Duncan Keenan-Jones, Gabriella Koltai, Ting-Yong Li, Mahjoor Ahmad Lone, Marc Luetscher, Dave Mattey, Ana Moreno, Gina MoseleyORCiD, David Psomiadis, Jiaoyang Ruan, Denis ScholzORCiD, Lijuan Sha, Andrew Christopher Smith, Nicolas StrikisORCiD, Pauline Treble, Ezgi Unal-Imer, Anton VaksORCiD, Stef Vansteenberge, Ny Riavo G. Voarintsoa, Corinne Wong, Barbara Wortham, Jennifer Wurtzel, Haiwei Zhang
DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1557-2019
ISSN:1814-9324
ISSN:1814-9332
Title of parent work (English):Climate of the past : an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Publisher:Copernicus
Place of publishing:Göttingen
Publication type:Article
Language:English
Date of first publication:2019/08/09
Publication year:2019
Creating corporation:SISAL Working Grp
Release date:2020/12/02
Volume:15
Issue:4
Number of pages:23
First page:1557
Last Page:1579
Funding institution:European Geosciences Union [W2017/413]; Irish Centre for Research in Applied Geosciences (iCRAG); European Association of Geochemistry (Early Career Ambassadors program 2017); Quaternary Research Association UK; Navarino Environmental Observatory, Stockholm University; University College Dublin, Savillex (UK) [SF1428]; Ibn Zohr University, Morocco; University of Reading; European Research CouncilEuropean Research Council (ERC) [694481]; Natural Environment Research Council (JPI-Belmont project "PAleao-Constraints on Monsoon Evolution and Dynamics (PACMEDY)"); Geological Survey Ireland [2017-SC-056]; Royal Irish Academy; Portuguese Science FoundationPortuguese Foundation for Science and Technology [UID/MAR/00350/2013]; Deutsche ForschungsgemeinschaftGerman Research Foundation (DFG) [RE3994/2-1]; Past Global Changes (PAGES) programme
Organizational units:Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Geowissenschaften
DDC classification:5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften
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