Gunnar Luderer, Silvia Madeddu, Leon Merfort, Falko Ueckerdt, Michaja Pehl, Robert C. Pietzcker, Marianna Rottoli, Felix Schreyer, Nico Bauer, Lavinia Baumstark, Christoph Bertram, Alois Dirnaichner, Florian Humpenöder, Antoine Levesque, Alexander Popp, Renato Rodrigues, Jessica Strefler, Elmar Kriegler
- Cost degression in photovoltaics, wind-power and battery storage has been faster than previously anticipated. In the future, climate policy to limit global warming to 1.5–2 °C will make carbon-based fuels increasingly scarce and expensive. Here we show that further progress in solar- and wind-power technology along with carbon pricing to reach the Paris Climate targets could make electricity cheaper than carbon-based fuels. In combination with demand-side innovation, for instance in e-mobility and heat pumps, this is likely to induce a fundamental transformation of energy systems towards a dominance of electricity-based end uses. In a 1.5 °C scenario with limited availability of bioenergy and carbon dioxide removal, electricity could account for 66% of final energy by mid-century, three times the current levels and substantially higher than in previous climate policy scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The lower production of bioenergy in our high-electrification scenarios markedly reducesCost degression in photovoltaics, wind-power and battery storage has been faster than previously anticipated. In the future, climate policy to limit global warming to 1.5–2 °C will make carbon-based fuels increasingly scarce and expensive. Here we show that further progress in solar- and wind-power technology along with carbon pricing to reach the Paris Climate targets could make electricity cheaper than carbon-based fuels. In combination with demand-side innovation, for instance in e-mobility and heat pumps, this is likely to induce a fundamental transformation of energy systems towards a dominance of electricity-based end uses. In a 1.5 °C scenario with limited availability of bioenergy and carbon dioxide removal, electricity could account for 66% of final energy by mid-century, three times the current levels and substantially higher than in previous climate policy scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The lower production of bioenergy in our high-electrification scenarios markedly reduces energy-related land and water requirements.…
MetadatenAuthor details: | Gunnar LudererORCiDGND, Silvia Madeddu, Leon MerfortORCiD, Falko UeckerdtORCiDGND, Michaja PehlORCiD, Robert C. PietzckerORCiD, Marianna Rottoli, Felix Schreyer, Nico Bauer, Lavinia BaumstarkORCiD, Christoph BertramORCiD, Alois DirnaichnerORCiD, Florian HumpenöderORCiDGND, Antoine LevesqueORCiDGND, Alexander PoppORCiDGND, Renato RodriguesORCiD, Jessica StreflerORCiD, Elmar KrieglerORCiDGND |
---|
DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00937-z |
---|
ISSN: | 2058-7546 |
---|
Title of parent work (English): | Nature energy |
---|
Publisher: | Nature Publishing Group |
---|
Place of publishing: | London |
---|
Publication type: | Article |
---|
Language: | English |
---|
Date of first publication: | 2021/11/25 |
---|
Publication year: | 2021 |
---|
Release date: | 2024/03/01 |
---|
Tag: | climate-change mitigation; energy modelling; renewable energy |
---|
Volume: | 7 |
---|
Issue: | 1 |
---|
Number of pages: | 11 |
---|
First page: | 32 |
---|
Last Page: | 42 |
---|
Funding institution: | German Federal Ministry of Education and ResearchFederal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF) |
---|
Funding institution: | European Union, European Commission |
---|
Funding number: | 03SFK5A, 01LA1809A |
---|
Funding number: | 821124, 821471 |
---|
Organizational units: | Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Wirtschaftswissenschaften / Fachgruppe Volkswirtschaftslehre |
---|
DDC classification: | 3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft |
---|
Peer review: | Referiert |
---|
External remark: | Corrigendum: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-022-01000-1 |
---|