Institut für Geoökologie
Refine
Has Fulltext
- no (3)
Year of publication
- 2012 (3) (remove)
Document Type
- Article (3)
Language
- English (3)
Is part of the Bibliography
- yes (3)
Keywords
- ANCOVA model (1)
- Energy crops (1)
- Fertilisation (1)
- Forecast verification (1)
- Greenhouse gases (1)
- Methane oxidation (1)
- Reservoir control (1)
- Runoff forecast (1)
- Small catchments (1)
- Soil water (1)
Institute
Methane flux rates were measured on a loamy sand soil within perennial and annual energy crops in northeast Germany. The study was performed in closed chambers between 2003 and 2005 with four measurements per week. A mixed linear model including the fixed effects of year, rotation period, crop and fertilisation was applied to determine the influence of climatic factors and soil management on the CH4 flux. Soil water content and air temperature were added as co-variables. With the exception of air temperature, all fixed effects and the co-variable soil water content influenced the CH4 flux. The soil of annual crops consumed 6.1 mu g CH4 m(-2) h(-1), significantly more than the soil of perennial crops with 4.3 mu g CH4 m(-2) h(-1). It is suggested that soil water content plays the key role in CH4 flux between pedosphere and atmosphere. In the range of water contents between 5% and 15%, our model describes that a soil water content increase of 1% induces a net emission of 0.375 mu g CH4 m(-2) h(-1). As the soil of the experimental field was well-drained and aerobic, it represented a net sink for CH4 throughout the study period.
Channel transmission losses in drylands take place normally in extensive alluvial channels or streambeds underlain by fractured rocks. They can play an important role in streamflow rates, groundwater recharge, freshwater supply and channel-associated ecosystems. We aim to develop a process-oriented, semi-distributed channel transmission losses model, using process formulations which are suitable for data-scarce dryland environments and applicable to both hydraulically disconnected losing streams and hydraulically connected losing(/gaining) streams. This approach should be able to cover a large variation in climate and hydro-geologic controls, which are typically found in dryland regions of the Earth. Our model was first evaluated for a losing/gaining, hydraulically connected 30 km reach of the Middle Jaguaribe River (MJR), Ceara, Brazil, which drains a catchment area of 20 000 km(2). Secondly, we applied it to a small losing, hydraulically disconnected 1.5 km channel reach in the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW), Arizona, USA. The model was able to predict reliably the streamflow volume and peak for both case studies without using any parameter calibration procedure. We have shown that the evaluation of the hypotheses on the dominant hydrological processes was fundamental for reducing structural model uncertainties and improving the streamflow prediction. For instance, in the case of the large river reach (MJR), it was shown that both lateral stream-aquifer water fluxes and groundwater flow in the underlying alluvium parallel to the river course are necessary to predict streamflow volume and channel transmission losses, the former process being more relevant than the latter. Regarding model uncertainty, it was shown that the approaches, which were applied for the unsaturated zone processes (highly nonlinear with elaborate numerical solutions), are much more sensitive to parameter variability than those approaches which were used for the saturated zone (mathematically simple water budgeting in aquifer columns, including backwater effects). In case of the MJR-application, we have seen that structural uncertainties due to the limited knowledge of the subsurface saturated system interactions (i.e. groundwater coupling with channel water; possible groundwater flow parallel to the river) were more relevant than those related to the subsurface parameter variability. In case of the WEGW application we have seen that the non-linearity involved in the unsaturated flow processes in disconnected dryland river systems (controlled by the unsaturated zone) generally contain far more model uncertainties than do connected systems controlled by the saturated flow. Therefore, the degree of aridity of a dryland river may be an indicator of potential model uncertainty and subsequent attainable predictability of the system.
We generated medium-range forecasts of runoff for a 50 km(2) headwater catchment upstream of a reservoir using numerical weather predictions (NWPs) of the past as input to an operational hydrological model. NWP data originating from different sources were tested. For a period of 8.5 years, we computed daily forecasts with a lead time of +120 h based on an empirically downscaled version of the ECMWF's ensemble prediction system. For the last 3.5 years of the test period, we also tried the deterministic COSMO-EU forecast disseminated by the German Weather Service for lead times of up to +72 h. Common measures of skill indicate superiority of the ensemble runoff forecast over single-value forecasts for longer lead times. However, regardless of which NWP data were being used, the probability of event detection (POD) was found to be generally lower than 50%. In many cases, values in the range of 20-30% were obtained. At the same time, the false alarms ratio (FAR) was often found to be considerably high. The observed uncertainties in the hydrological forecasts were shown to originate from both the insufficient quality of precipitation forecasts as well as deficiencies in hydrological modeling and quantitative precipitation estimation. With respect to the anticipatory control of reservoirs in the studied catchment, the value of the tested runoff forecasts appears to be limited. This is due to the unfavorably low POD/FAR ratio in conjunction with a high cost-loss ratio. However, our results indicate that, in many cases, major runoff events related to snow melt can be successfully predicted as early as 4-5 days in advance.