Institut für Geoökologie
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Institute
The functioning of the surface water-groundwater interface as buffer, filter and reactive zone is important for water quality, ecological health and resilience of streams and riparian ecosystems. Solute and heat exchange across this interface is driven by the advection of water. Characterizing the flow conditions in the streambed is challenging as flow patterns are often complex and multidimensional, driven by surface hydraulic gradients and groundwater discharge. This thesis presents the results of an integrated approach of studies, ranging from the acquisition of field data, the development of analytical and numerical approaches to analyse vertical temperature profiles to the detailed, fully-integrated 3D numerical modelling of water and heat flux at the reach scale. All techniques were applied in order to characterize exchange flux between stream and groundwater, hyporheic flow paths and temperature patterns.
The study was conducted at a reach-scale section of the lowland Selke River, characterized by distinctive pool riffle sequences and fluvial islands and gravel bars. Continuous time series of hydraulic heads and temperatures were measured at different depths in the river bank, the hyporheic zone and within the river. The analyses of the measured diurnal temperature variation in riverbed sediments provided detailed information about the exchange flux between river and groundwater. Beyond the one-dimensional vertical water flow in the riverbed sediment, hyporheic and parafluvial flow patterns were identified. Subsurface flow direction and magnitude around fluvial islands and gravel bars at the study site strongly depended on the position around the geomorphological structures and on the river stage. Horizontal water flux in the streambed substantially impacted temperature patterns in the streambed. At locations with substantial horizontal fluxes the penetration depths of daily temperature fluctuations was reduced in comparison to purely vertical exchange conditions.
The calibrated and validated 3D fully-integrated model of reach-scale water and heat fluxes across the river-groundwater interface was able to accurately represent the real system. The magnitude and variations of the simulated temperatures matched the observed ones, with an average mean absolute error of 0.7 °C and an average Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.87. The simulation results showed that the water and heat exchange at the surface water-groundwater interface is highly variable in space and time with zones of daily temperature oscillations penetrating deep into the sediment and spots of daily constant temperature following the average groundwater temperature. The average hyporheic flow path temperature was found to strongly correlate with the flow path residence time (flow path length) and the temperature gradient between river and groundwater. Despite the complexity of these processes, the simulation results allowed the derivation of a general empirical relationship between the hyporheic residence times and temperature patterns. The presented results improve our understanding of the complex spatial and temporal dynamics of water flux and thermal processes within the shallow streambed. Understanding these links provides a general basis from which to assess hyporheic temperature conditions in river reaches.
The sustainability of agro-bioenergy systems is dependent on many factors, some local or regional in implementation, some others global in nature. This study assessed the effects of often ignored local and regional factors (e.g. alternative agronomic factor options, alternative agricultural production systems, alternative biomass flows, alternative conversion technologies etc. The results from this study suggests that key to enhancing the energy efficiency (and by extension the sustainability) of agro-bioenergy systems is paying attention to local and regional factors such as biomass conversion technology, alternative agronomic factor options, alternative agricultural production systems and available biomass flows.
Understanding the distribution of species is fundamental for biodiversity conservation, ecosystem management, and increasingly also for climate impact assessment. The presence of a species in a given site depends on physiological limitations (abiotic factors), interactions with other species (biotic factors), migratory or dispersal processes (site accessibility) as well as the continuing
effects of past events, e.g. disturbances (site legacy). Existing approaches to predict species distributions either (i) correlate observed species occurrences with environmental variables describing abiotic limitations, thus ignoring biotic interactions, dispersal and legacy effects (statistical species distribution model, SDM); or (ii) mechanistically model the variety of processes determining species distributions (process-based model, PBM). SDMs are widely used due to their easy applicability and ability to handle varied data qualities. But they fail to reproduce the dynamic response of species distributions to changing conditions. PBMs are expected to be superior in this respect, but they need very specific data unavailable for many species, and are often more complex and require more computational effort. More recently, hybrid models link the two approaches to combine their respective strengths.
In this thesis, I apply and compare statistical and process-based approaches to predict species distributions, and I discuss their respective limitations, specifically for applications in changing environments. Detailed analyses of SDMs for boreal tree species in Finland reveal that nonclimatic predictors - edaphic properties and biotic interactions - are important limitations at the treeline, contesting the assumption of unrestricted, climatically induced range expansion. While the estimated SDMs are successful within their training data range, spatial and temporal model transfer fails. Mapping and comparing sampled predictor space among data subsets identifies spurious extrapolation as the plausible explanation for limited model transferability. Using these findings, I analyze the limited success of an established PBM (LPJ-GUESS) applied to the same problem. Examination of process representation and parameterization in the PBM identifies implemented processes to adjust (competition between species, disturbance) and missing processes that are crucial in boreal forests (nutrient limitation, forest management). Based on climatic correlations shifting over time, I stress the restricted temporal transferability of bioclimatic limits used in LPJ-GUESS and similar PBMs. By critically assessing the performance of SDM and PBM in this application, I demonstrate the importance of understanding the limitations of the
applied methods.
As a potential solution, I add a novel approach to the repertoire of existing hybrid models. By simulation experiments with an individual-based PBM which reproduces community dynamics resulting from biotic factors, dispersal and legacy effects, I assess the resilience of coastal vegetation to abrupt hydrological changes. According to the results of the resilience analysis, I then modify temporal SDM predictions, thereby transferring relevant process detail from PBM to
SDM. The direction of knowledge transfer from PBM to SDM avoids disadvantages of current hybrid models and increases the applicability of the resulting model in long-term, large-scale applications. A further advantage of the proposed framework is its flexibility, as it is readily extended to other model types, disturbance definitions and response characteristics.
Concluding, I argue that we already have a diverse range of promising modelling tools at hand, which can be refined further. But most importantly, they need to be applied more thoughtfully. Bearing their limitations in mind, combining their strengths and openly reporting underlying assumptions and uncertainties is the way forward.
Volcano dome deformation processes analysed with high resolution InSAR and camera-based techniques
(2017)
Landschaftsbewertung im Oberspreewald auf geoökologischer Grundlage - eine methodische Studie
(1993)
Model frameworks for the calculation of annual runoff and nitrogen emission from danish catchments
(2001)
This study investigates spatial patterns of Ks and tests the hypothesis of whether structural variance emerges from noise with increasing sampling precision. We analyzed point measurements of Ks along independent transects at sampling intervals of 25, 10, 1 and 0.25 m. The field area is a tropical rainforest catena (i.e. toposequence) characterized by systematic downslope changes in soil properties including color (red to yellow), mineralogy (kaolinite- illite to kaolinite) and texture (sandy clay to sand). Independent tramsects spanning the entire catena at lag intervals of 25 and 10 in reveal little to no spatial patterns in Ks; i.e. scatter plots are noisy and lack apparent spatial trends, and semivariograms suggest little to no autocorrelation in Ks. As sampling precision is increased (h = 1 and 0.25 m), spatial patterns emerge in Ks for the downslope areas, in which distinctive hydraulic boundaries in Ks correlate with relatively small-scale, topography-controlled soils with coarse textures (greater than or equal to 80% sand). For these areas, semivariograms of Ks and those of %sand and %clay exhibit similar spatial structure characterized by small nugget variances and large ranges, and nugget variance is reduced as sampling precision increases from 1 to 0.25 m. In the upslope, clay-rich locations along this toposequence, Ks exhibits few spatial patterns, irrespective of sampling scale. For these locations, scatter plots are noisy without apparent spatial trends, and semivariograms show almost complete nugget variance, suggesting little to no correlation in this hydraulic parameter at any scale. This study suggests that in the absence of coarse textures (greater than or equal to 80% sand), there is little predictability in Ks, even at sampling intervals of 0.25 m. We believe this lack of spatial structure is due to a predominance of small-scale processes such as biological activity that largely control Ks in this forested setting. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved
Analysis and modelling of nutrient transport and transformation processes on the catchment scale
(2007)
Analysis and modelling of nutrient transport and transformation processes on the catchment scale
(2007)
The relationship between climate and forest productivity is an intensively studied subject in forest science. This Thesis is embedded within the general framework of future forest growth under climate change and its implications for the ongoing forest conversion. My objective is to investigate the future forest productivity at different spatial scales (from a single specific forest stand to aggregated information across Germany) with focus on oak-pine forests in the federal state of Brandenburg. The overarching question is: how are the oak-pine forests affected by climate change described by a variety of climate scenarios. I answer this question by using a model based analysis of tree growth processes and responses to different climate scenarios with emphasis on drought events. In addition, a method is developed which considers climate change uncertainty of forest management planning.
As a first 'screening' of climate change impacts on forest productivity, I calculated the change in net primary production on the base of a large set of climate scenarios for different tree species and the total area of Germany. Temperature increases up to 3 K lead to positive effects on the net primary production of all selected tree species. But, in water-limited regions this positive net primary production trend is dependent on the length of drought periods which results in a larger uncertainty regarding future forest productivity. One of the regions with the highest uncertainty of net primary production development is the federal state of Brandenburg.
To enhance the understanding and ability of model based analysis of tree growth sensitivity to drought stress two water uptake approaches in pure pine and mixed oak-pine stands are contrasted. The first water uptake approach consists of an empirical function for root water uptake. The second approach is more mechanistic and calculates the differences of soil water potential along a soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. I assumed the total root resistance to vary at low, medium and high total root resistance levels. For validation purposes three data sets on different tree growth relevant time scales are used. Results show that, except the mechanistic water uptake approach with high total root resistance, all transpiration outputs exceeded observed values. On the other hand high transpiration led to a better match of observed soil water content. The strongest correlation between simulated and observed annual tree ring width occurred with the mechanistic water uptake approach and high total root resistance. The findings highlight the importance of severe drought as a main reason for small diameter increment, best supported by the mechanistic water uptake approach with high root resistance. However, if all aspects of the data sets are considered no approach can be judged superior to the other. I conclude that the uncertainty of future productivity of water-limited forest ecosystems under changing environmental conditions is linked to simulated root water uptake.
Finally my study aimed at the impacts of climate change combined with management scenarios on an oak-pine forest to evaluate growth, biomass and the amount of harvested timber. The pine and the oak trees are 104 and 9 years old respectively. Three different management scenarios with different thinning intensities and different climate scenarios are used to simulate the performance of management strategies which explicitly account for the risks associated with achieving three predefined objectives (maximum carbon storage, maximum harvested timber, intermediate). I found out that in most cases there is no general management strategy which fits best to different objectives. The analysis of variance in the growth related model outputs showed an increase of climate uncertainty with increasing climate warming. Interestingly, the increase of climate-induced uncertainty is much higher from 2 to 3 K than from 0 to 2 K.
The sea level rise induced intensification of coastal floods is a serious threat to many regions in proximity to the ocean. Although severe flood events are rare they can entail enormous damage costs, especially when built-up areas are inundated. Fortunately, the mean sea level advances slowly and there is enough time for society to adapt to the changing environment. Most commonly, this is achieved by the construction or reinforcement of flood defence measures such as dykes or sea walls but also land use and disaster management are widely discussed options. Overall, albeit the projection of sea level rise impacts and the elaboration of adequate response strategies is amongst the most prominent topics in climate impact research, global damage estimates are vague and mostly rely on the same assessment models. The thesis at hand contributes to this issue by presenting a distinctive approach which facilitates large scale assessments as well as the comparability of results across regions. Moreover, we aim to improve the general understanding of the interplay between mean sea level rise, adaptation, and coastal flood damage.
Our undertaking is based on two basic building blocks. Firstly, we make use of macroscopic flood-damage functions, i.e. damage functions that provide the total monetary damage within a delineated region (e.g. a city) caused by a flood of certain magnitude. After introducing a systematic methodology for the automatised derivation of such functions, we apply it to a total of 140 European cities and obtain a large set of damage curves utilisable for individual as well as comparative damage assessments. By scrutinising the resulting curves, we are further able to characterise the slope of the damage functions by means of a functional model. The proposed function has in general a sigmoidal shape but exhibits a power law increase for the relevant range of flood levels and we detect an average exponent of 3.4 for the considered cities. This finding represents an essential input for subsequent elaborations on the general interrelations of involved quantities.
The second basic element of this work is extreme value theory which is employed to characterise the occurrence of flood events and in conjunction with a damage function provides the probability distribution of the annual damage in the area under study. The resulting approach is highly flexible as it assumes non-stationarity in all relevant parameters and can be easily applied to arbitrary regions, sea level, and adaptation scenarios. For instance, we find a doubling of expected flood damage in the city of Copenhagen for a rise in mean sea levels of only 11 cm. By following more general considerations, we succeed in deducing surprisingly simple functional expressions to describe the damage behaviour in a given region for varying mean sea levels, changing storm intensities, and supposed protection levels. We are thus able to project future flood damage by means of a reduced set of parameters, namely the aforementioned damage function exponent and the extreme value parameters. Similar examinations are carried out to quantify the aleatory uncertainty involved in these projections. In this regard, a decrease of (relative) uncertainty with rising mean sea levels is detected. Beyond that, we demonstrate how potential adaptation measures can be assessed in terms of a Cost-Benefit Analysis. This is exemplified by the Danish case study of Kalundborg, where amortisation times for a planned investment are estimated for several sea level scenarios and discount rates.
Peak oil is forcing our society to shift from fossil to renewable resources. However, such renewable resources are also scarce, and they too must be used in the most efficient and sustainable way possible. Biorefining is a concept that represents both resource efficiency and sustainability. This approach initiates a cascade use, which means food and feed production before material use, and an energy-related use at the end of the value-added chain. However, sustainability should already start in the fields, on the agricultural side, where the industrially-used biomass is produced. Therefore, the aim of my doctoral thesis is to analyse the sustainable feedstock supply for biorefineries. In contrast to most studies on biorefineries, I focus on the sustainable provision of feedstock and not on the bioengineering processing of whatever feedstock is available.
Grasslands provide a high biomass potential. They are often inefficiently used, so a new utilisation concept based on the biorefining approach can increase the added value from grasslands. Fodder legumes from temporary and permanent grasslands were chosen for this study. Previous research shows that they are a promising feedstock for industrial uses, and their positive environmental impact is an important byproduct to promote sustainable agricultural production systems.
Green Biorefineries are a class of biorefineries that use fresh green biomass, such as grasses or fodder legumes, as feedstock. After fractionation, an organic solution (press juice) forms; this is used for the production of organic acids, chemicals and extracts, as well as fertilisers. A fibre component (press cake) is also created to produce feed, biomaterials and biogas. This thesis examines a specific value chain, using alfalfa and clover/grass as feedstock and generating lactic acid and one type of cattle feed from it. The research question is if biomass production needs to be adapted for the utilisation of fodder legumes in the Green Biorefinery approach. I have attempted to give a holistic analysis of cultivation, processing and utilisation of two specific grassland crops. Field trials with alfalfa and clover/grass at different study sites were carried out to obtain information on biomass quality and quantity depending on the crop, study site and harvest time. The fresh biomass was fractionated with a screw press and the composition of press juices and cakes was analysed. Fermentation experiments took place to determine the usability of press juices for lactic acid production. The harvest time is not of high importance for the quality of press juices as a fermentation medium. For permanent grasslands, late cuts, often needed for reasons of nature conservation, are possible without a major influence on feedstock quality. The press cakes were silaged for feed-value determination.
Following evidence that both intermediate products are suitable feedstocks in the Green Biorefinery approach, I developed a cost-benefit analysis, comparing different production scenarios on a farm. Two standard crop rotations for Brandenburg, producing either only market crops or market crops and fodder legumes for ruminant feed production, were compared to a system that uses the cultivated fodder legumes for the Green Biorefinery value chain instead of only feed production. Timely processing of the raw material is important to maintain quality for industrial uses, so on-site processing at the farm is assumed in Green Biorefinery scenario. As a result, more added value stays in the rural area. Two farm sizes, common for many European regions, were chosen to examine the influence of scale. The cost site of farmers has also been analysed in detail to assess which farm characteristics make production of press juices for biochemical industries viable. Results show that for large farm sizes in particular, the potential profits are high. Additionally, the wider spectrum of marketable products generates new sources of income for farmers.
The holistic analysis of the supply chain provides evidence that the cultivation processes for fodder legumes do not need to be adapted for use in Green Biorefineries. In fact, the new utilisation approach even widens the cultivation and processing spectrum and can increase economic viability of fodder legume production in conventional farming.
Water resources from Central Asia’s mountain regions have a high relevance for the water supply of the water scarce lowlands. A good understanding of the water cycle in these mountain regions is therefore needed to develop water management strategies. Hydrological modeling helps to improve our knowledge of the regional water cycle, and it can be used to gain a better understanding of past changes or estimate future hydrologic changes in view of projected changes in climate. However, due to the scarcity of hydrometeorological data, hydrological modeling for mountain regions in Central Asia involves large uncertainties.
Addressing this problem, the first aim of this thesis was to develop hydrological modeling approaches that can increase the credibility of hydrological models in data sparse mountain regions. This was achieved by using additional data from remote sensing and atmospheric modeling. It was investigated whether spatial patterns from downscaled reanalysis data can be used for the interpolation of station-based precipitation data. This approach was compared to other precipitation estimates using a hydrologic evaluation based on hydrological modeling and a comparison of simulated and observed discharge, which demonstrated a generally good performance of this method. The study further investigated the value of satellite-derived snow cover data for model calibration. Trade-offs of good model performance in terms of discharge and snow cover were explicitly evaluated using a multiobjective optimization algorithm, and the results were contrasted with single-objective calibration and Monte Carlo simulations. The study clearly shows that the additional use of snow cover data improved the internal consistency of the hydrological model. In this context, it was further investigated for the first time how many snow cover scenes were required for hydrological model calibration.
The second aim of this thesis was the application of the hydrological model in order to investigate the causes of observed streamflow increases in two headwater catchments of the Tarim River over the recent decades. This simulation-based approach for trend attribution was complemented by a data-based approach. The hydrological model was calibrated to discharge and glacier mass balance data and considered changes in glacier geometry over time. The results show that in the catchment with a lower glacierization, increasing precipitation and temperature both contributed to the streamflow increases, while in the catchment with a stronger glacierization, increasing temperatures were identified as the dominant driver.
Anthropogenic activities have transformed the Earth's environment, not only on local level, but on the planetary-scale causing global change. Besides industrialization, agriculture is a major driver of global change. This change in turn impairs the agriculture sector, reducing crop yields namely due to soil degradation, water scarcity, and climate change. However, this is a more complex issue than it appears. Crop yields can be increased by use of agrochemicals and fertilizers which are mainly produced by fossil energy. This is important to meet the increasing food demand driven by global demographic change, which is further accelerated by changes in regional lifestyles. In this dissertation, we attempt to address this complex problem exploring agricultural potential globally but on a local scale. For this, we considered the influence of lifestyle changes (dietary patterns) as well as technological progress and their effects on climate change, mainly greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Furthermore, we examined options for optimizing crop yields in the current cultivated land with the current cropping patterns by closing yield gaps. Using this, we investigated in a five-minute resolution the extent to which food demand can be met locally, and/or by regional and/or global trade. Globally, food consumption habits are shifting towards calorie rich diets. Due to dietary shifts combined with population growth, the global food demand is expected to increase by 60-110% between 2005 and 2050. Hence, one of the challenges to global sustainability is to meet the growing food demand, while at the same time, reducing agricultural inputs and environmental consequences. In order to address the above problem, we used several freely available datasets and applied multiple interconnected analytical approaches that include artificial neural network, scenario analysis, data aggregation and harmonization, downscaling algorithm, and cross-scale analysis.
Globally, we identified sixteen dietary patterns between 1961 and 2007 with food intakes ranging from 1,870 to 3,400 kcal/cap/day. These dietary patterns also reflected changing dietary habits to meat rich diets worldwide. Due to the large share of animal products, very high calorie diets that are common in the developed world, exhibit high total per capita emissions of 3.7-6.1 kg CO2eq./day. This is higher than total per capita emissions of 1.4-4.5 kg CO2eq./day associated with low and moderate calorie diets that are common in developing countries. Currently, 40% of the global crop calories are fed to livestock and the feed calorie use is four times the produced animal calories. However, these values vary from less than 1 kcal to greater 10 kcal around the world. On the local and national scale, we found that the local and national food production could meet demand of 1.9 and 4.4 billion people in 2000, respectively. However, 1 billion people from Asia and Africa require intercontinental agricultural trade to meet their food demand. Nevertheless, these regions can become food self-sufficient by closing yield gaps that require location specific inputs and agricultural management strategies. Such strategies include: fertilizers, pesticides, soil and land improvement, management targeted on mitigating climate induced yield variability, and improving market accessibility. However, closing yield gaps in particular requires global N-fertilizer application to increase by 45-73%, P2O5 by 22-46%, and K2O by 2-3 times compare to 2010. Considering population growth, we found that the global agricultural GHG emissions will approach 7 Gt CO2eq./yr by 2050, while the global livestock feed demand will remain similar to 2000. This changes tremendously when diet shifts are also taken into account, resulting in GHG emissions of 20 Gt CO2eq./yr and an increase of 1.3 times in the crop-based feed demand between 2000 and 2050. However, when population growth, diet shifts, and technological progress by 2050 were considered, GHG emissions can be reduced to 14 Gt CO2eq./yr and the feed demand to nearly 1.8 times compare to that in 2000. Additionally, our findings shows that based on the progress made in closing yield gaps, the number of people depending on international trade can vary between 1.5 and 6 billion by 2050. In medium term, this requires additional fossil energy. Furthermore, climate change, affecting crop yields, will increase the need for international agricultural trade by 4% to 16%.
In summary, three general conclusions are drawn from this dissertation. First, changing dietary patterns will significantly increase crop demand, agricultural GHG emissions, and international food trade in the future when compared to population growth only. Second, such increments can be reduced by technology transfer and technological progress that will enhance crop yields, decrease agricultural emission intensities, and increase livestock feed conversion efficiencies. Moreover, international trade dependency can be lowered by consuming local and regional food products, by producing diverse types of food, and by closing yield gaps. Third, location specific inputs and management options are required to close yield gaps. Sustainability of such inputs and management largely depends on which options are chosen and how they are implemented. However, while every cultivated land may not need to attain its potential yields to enable food security, closing yield gaps only may not be enough to achieve food self-sufficiency in some regions. Hence, a combination of sustainable implementations of agricultural intensification, expansion, and trade as well as shifting dietary habits towards a lower share of animal products is required to feed the growing population.
Permafrost, defined as ground that is frozen for at least two consecutive years, is a distinct feature of the terrestrial unglaciated Arctic. It covers approximately one quarter of the land area of the Northern Hemisphere (23,000,000 km²). Arctic landscapes, especially those underlain by permafrost, are threatened by climate warming and may degrade in different ways, including active layer deepening, thermal erosion, and development of rapid thaw features. In Siberian and Alaskan late Pleistocene ice-rich Yedoma permafrost, rapid and deep thaw processes (called thermokarst) can mobilize deep organic carbon (below 3 m depth) by surface subsidence due to loss of ground ice. Increased permafrost thaw could cause a feedback loop of global significance if its stored frozen organic carbon is reintroduced into the active carbon cycle as greenhouse gases, which accelerate warming and inducing more permafrost thaw and carbon release. To assess this concern, the major objective of the thesis was to enhance the understanding of the origin of Yedoma as well as to assess the associated organic carbon pool size and carbon quality (concerning degradability). The key research questions were:
- How did Yedoma deposits accumulate?
- How much organic carbon is stored in the Yedoma region?
- What is the susceptibility of the Yedoma region's carbon for future decomposition?
To address these three research questions, an interdisciplinary approach, including detailed field studies and sampling in Siberia and Alaska as well as methods of sedimentology, organic biogeochemistry, remote sensing, statistical analyses, and computational modeling were applied. To provide a panarctic context, this thesis additionally includes results both from a newly compiled northern circumpolar carbon database and from a model assessment of carbon fluxes in a warming Arctic.
The Yedoma samples show a homogeneous grain-size composition. All samples were poorly sorted with a multi-modal grain-size distribution, indicating various (re-) transport processes. This contradicts the popular pure loess deposition hypothesis for the origin of Yedoma permafrost. The absence of large-scale grinding processes via glaciers and ice sheets in northeast Siberian lowlands, processes which are necessary to create loess as material source, suggests the polygenetic origin of Yedoma deposits.
Based on the largest available data set of the key parameters, including organic carbon content, bulk density, ground ice content, and deposit volume (thickness and coverage) from Siberian and Alaskan study sites, this thesis further shows that deep frozen organic carbon in the Yedoma region consists of two distinct major reservoirs, Yedoma deposits and thermokarst deposits (formed in thaw-lake basins). Yedoma deposits contain ~80 Gt and thermokarst deposits ~130 Gt organic carbon, or a total of ~210 Gt. Depending on the approach used for calculating uncertainty, the range for the total Yedoma region carbon store is ±75 % and ±20 % for conservative single and multiple bootstrapping calculations, respectively. Despite the fact that these findings reduce the Yedoma region carbon pool by nearly a factor of two compared to previous estimates, this frozen organic carbon is still capable of inducing a permafrost carbon feedback to climate warming. The complete northern circumpolar permafrost region contains between 1100 and 1500 Gt organic carbon, of which ~60 % is perennially frozen and decoupled from the short-term carbon cycle.
When thawed and reintroduced into the active carbon cycle, the organic matter qualities become relevant. Furthermore, results from investigations into Yedoma and thermokarst organic matter quality studies showed that Yedoma and thermokarst organic matter exhibit no depth-dependent quality trend. This is evidence that after freezing, the ancient organic matter is preserved in a state of constant quality. The applied alkane and fatty-acid-based biomarker proxies including the carbon-preference and the higher-land-plant-fatty-acid indices show a broad range of organic matter quality and thus no significantly different qualities of the organic matter stored in thermokarst deposits compared to Yedoma deposits. This lack of quality differences shows that the organic matter biodegradability depends on different decomposition trajectories and the previous decomposition/incorporation history. Finally, the fate of the organic matter has been assessed by implementing deep carbon pools and thermokarst processes in a permafrost carbon model. Under various warming scenarios for the northern circumpolar permafrost region, model results show a carbon release from permafrost regions of up to ~140 Gt and ~310 Gt by the years 2100 and 2300, respectively. The additional warming caused by the carbon release from newly-thawed permafrost contributes 0.03 to 0.14°C by the year 2100. The model simulations predict that a further increase by the 23rd century will add 0.4°C to global mean surface air temperatures.
In conclusion, Yedoma deposit formation during the late Pleistocene was dominated by water-related (alluvial/fluvial/lacustrine) as well as aeolian processes under periglacial conditions. The circumarctic permafrost region, including the Yedoma region, contains a substantial amount of currently frozen organic carbon. The carbon of the Yedoma region is well-preserved and therefore available for decomposition after thaw. A missing quality-depth trend shows that permafrost preserves the quality of ancient organic matter. When the organic matter is mobilized by deep degradation processes, the northern permafrost region may add up to 0.4°C to the global warming by the year 2300.
Large-scale floodplain sediment dynamics in the Mekong Delta : present state and future prospects
(2014)
The Mekong Delta (MD) sustains the livelihood and food security of millions of people in Vietnam and Cambodia. It is known as the “rice bowl” of South East Asia and has one of the world’s most productive fisheries. Sediment dynamics play a major role for the high productivity of agriculture and fishery in the delta. However, the MD is threatened by climate change, sea level rise and unsustainable development activities in the Mekong Basin. But despite its importance and the expected threats, the understanding of the present and future sediment dynamics in the MD is very limited. This is a consequence of its large extent, the intricate system of rivers, channels and floodplains and the scarcity of observations. Thus this thesis aimed at (1) the quantification of suspended sediment dynamics and associated sediment-nutrient deposition in floodplains of the MD, and (2) assessed the impacts of likely future boundary changes on the sediment dynamics in the MD. The applied methodology combines field experiments and numerical simulation to quantify and predict the sediment dynamics in the entire delta in a spatially explicit manner. The experimental part consists of a comprehensive procedure to monitor quantity and spatial variability of sediment and associated nutrient deposition for large and complex river floodplains, including an uncertainty analysis. The measurement campaign applied 450 sediment mat traps in 19 floodplains over the MD for a complete flood season. The data also supports quantification of nutrient deposition in floodplains based on laboratory analysis of nutrient fractions of trapped sedimentation.The main findings are that the distribution of grain size and nutrient fractions of suspended sediment are homogeneous over the Vietnamese floodplains. But the sediment deposition within and between ring dike floodplains shows very high spatial variability due to a high level of human inference. The experimental findings provide the essential data for setting up and calibration of a large-scale sediment transport model for the MD. For the simulation studies a large scale hydrodynamic model was developed in order to quantify large-scale floodplain sediment dynamics. The complex river-channel-floodplain system of the MD is described by a quasi-2D model linking a hydrodynamic and a cohesive sediment transport model. The floodplains are described as quasi-2D presentations linked to rivers and channels modeled in 1D by using control structures. The model setup, based on the experimental findings, ignored erosion and re-suspension processes due to a very high degree of human interference during the flood season. A two-stage calibration with six objective functions was developed in order to calibrate both the hydrodynamic and sediment transport modules. The objective functions include hydraulic and sediment transport parameters in main rivers, channels and floodplains. The model results show, for the first time, the tempo-spatial distribution of sediment and associated nutrient deposition rates in the whole MD. The patterns of sediment transport and deposition are quantified for different sub-systems. The main factors influencing spatial sediment dynamics are the network of rivers, channels and dike-rings, sluice gate operations, magnitude of the floods and tidal influences. The superposition of these factors leads to high spatial variability of the sediment transport and deposition, in particular in the Vietnamese floodplains. Depending on the flood magnitude, annual sediment loads reaching the coast vary from 48% to 60% of the sediment load at Kratie, the upper boundary of the MD. Deposited sediment varies from 19% to 23% of the annual load at Kratie in Cambodian floodplains, and from 1% to 6% in the compartmented and diked floodplains in Vietnam. Annual deposited nutrients (N, P, K), which are associated to the sediment deposition, provide on average more than 50% of mineral fertilizers typically applied for rice crops in non-flooded ring dike compartments in Vietnam. This large-scale quantification provides a basis for estimating the benefits of the annual Mekong floods for agriculture and fishery, for assessing the impacts of future changes on the delta system, and further studies on coastal deposition/erosion. For the estimation of future prospects a sensitivity-based approach is applied to assess the response of floodplain hydraulics and sediment dynamics to the changes in the delta boundaries including hydropower development, climate change in the Mekong River Basin and effective sea level rise. The developed sediment model is used to simulate the mean sediment transport and sediment deposition in the whole delta system for the baseline (2000-2010) and future (2050-2060) periods. For each driver we derive a plausible range of future changes and discretize it into five levels, resulting in altogether 216 possible factor combinations. Our results thus cover all plausible future pathways of sediment dynamics in the delta based on current knowledge. The uncertainty of the range of the resulting impacts can be decreased in case more information on these drivers becomes available. Our results indicate that the hydropower development dominates the changes in sediment dynamics of the Mekong Delta, while sea level rise has the smallest effect. The floodplains of Vietnamese Mekong Delta are much more sensitive to the changes compared to the other subsystems of the delta. In terms of median changes of the three combined drivers, the inundation extent is predicted to increase slightly, but the overall floodplain sedimentation would be reduced by approximately 40%, while the sediment load to the Sea would diminish to half of the current rates. These findings provide new and valuable information on the possible impacts of future development on the delta, and indicate the most vulnerable areas. Thus, the presented results are a significant contribution to the ongoing international discussion on the hydropower development in the Mekong basin and its impact on the Mekong delta.
Large Central European flood events of the past have demonstrated that flooding can affect several river basins at the same time leading to catastrophic economic and humanitarian losses that can stretch emergency resources beyond planned levels of service. For Germany, the spatial coherence of flooding, the contributing processes and the role of trans-basin floods for a national risk assessment is largely unknown and analysis is limited by a lack of systematic data, information and knowledge on past events. This study investigates the frequency and intensity of trans-basin flood events in Germany. It evaluates the data and information basis on which knowledge about trans-basin floods can be generated in order to improve any future flood risk assessment. In particu-lar, the study assesses whether flood documentations and related reports can provide a valuable data source for understanding trans-basin floods. An adaptive algorithm was developed that systematically captures trans-basin floods using series of mean daily discharge at a large number of sites of even time series length (1952-2002). It identifies the simultaneous occurrence of flood peaks based on the exceedance of an initial threshold of a 10 year flood at one location and consecutively pools all causally related, spatially and temporally lagged peak recordings at the other locations. A weighted cumulative index was developed that accounts for the spatial extent and the individual flood magnitudes within an event and allows quantifying the overall event severity. The parameters of the method were tested in a sensitivity analysis. An intensive study on sources and ways of information dissemination of flood-relevant publications in Germany was conducted. Based on the method of systematic reviews a strategic search approach was developed to identify relevant documentations for each of the 40 strongest trans-basin flood events. A novel framework for assessing the quality of event specific flood reports from a user’s perspective was developed and validated by independent peers. The framework was designed to be generally applicable for any natural hazard type and assesses the quality of a document addressing accessibility as well as representational, contextual, and intrinsic dimensions of quality. The analysis of time-series of mean daily discharge resulted in the identification of 80 trans-basin flood events within the period 1952-2002 in Germany. The set is dominated by events that were recorded in the hydrological winter (64%); 36% occurred during the summer months. The occurrence of floods is characterised by a distinct clustering in time. Dividing the study period into two sub-periods, we find an increase in the percentage of winter events from 58% in the first to 70.5% in the second sub-period. Accordingly, we find a significant increase in the number of extreme trans-basin floods in the second sub-period. A large body of 186 flood relevant documentations was identified. For 87.5% of the 40 strongest trans-basin floods in Germany at least one report has been found and for the most severe floods a substantial amount of documentation could be obtained. 80% of the material can be considered grey literature (i.e. literature not controlled by commercial publishers). The results of the quality assessment show that the majority of flood event specific reports are of a good quality, i.e. they are well enough drafted, largely accurate and objective, and contain a substantial amount of information on the sources, pathways and receptors/consequences of the floods. The inclusion of this information in the process of knowledge building for flood risk assessment is recommended. Both the results as well as the data produced in this study are openly accessible and can be used for further research. The results of this study contribute to an improved spatial risk assessment in Germany. The identified set of trans-basin floods provides the basis for an assessment of the chance that flooding occurs simultaneously at a number of sites. The information obtained from flood event documentation can usefully supplement the analysis of the processes that govern flood risk.
Species respond to environmental change by dynamically adjusting their geographical ranges. Robust predictions of these changes are prerequisites to inform dynamic and sustainable conservation strategies. Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) relate species’ occurrence records to prevailing environmental factors to describe the environmental niche. They have been widely applied in global change context as they have comparably low data requirements and allow for rapid assessments of potential future species’ distributions. However, due to their static nature, transient responses to environmental change are essentially ignored in SDMs. Furthermore, neither dispersal nor demographic processes and biotic interactions are explicitly incorporated. Therefore, it has often been suggested to link statistical and mechanistic modelling approaches in order to make more realistic predictions of species’ distributions for scenarios of environmental change. In this thesis, I present two different ways of such linkage. (i) Mechanistic modelling can act as virtual playground for testing statistical models and allows extensive exploration of specific questions. I promote this ‘virtual ecologist’ approach as a powerful evaluation framework for testing sampling protocols, analyses and modelling tools. Also, I employ such an approach to systematically assess the effects of transient dynamics and ecological properties and processes on the prediction accuracy of SDMs for climate change projections. That way, relevant mechanisms are identified that shape the species’ response to altered environmental conditions and which should hence be considered when trying to project species’ distribution through time. (ii) I supplement SDM projections of potential future habitat for black grouse in Switzerland with an individual-based population model. By explicitly considering complex interactions between habitat availability and demographic processes, this allows for a more direct assessment of expected population response to environmental change and associated extinction risks. However, predictions were highly variable across simulations emphasising the need for principal evaluation tools like sensitivity analysis to assess uncertainty and robustness in dynamic range predictions. Furthermore, I identify data coverage of the environmental niche as a likely cause for contrasted range predictions between SDM algorithms. SDMs may fail to make reliable predictions for truncated and edge niches, meaning that portions of the niche are not represented in the data or niche edges coincide with data limits. Overall, my thesis contributes to an improved understanding of uncertainty factors in predictions of range dynamics and presents ways how to deal with these. Finally I provide preliminary guidelines for predictive modelling of dynamic species’ response to environmental change, identify key challenges for future research and discuss emerging developments.
Complete protection against flood risks by structural measures is impossible. Therefore flood prediction is important for flood risk management. Good explanatory power of flood models requires a meaningful representation of bio-physical processes. Therefore great interest exists to improve the process representation. Progress in hydrological process understanding is achieved through a learning cycle including critical assessment of an existing model for a given catchment as a first step. The assessment will highlight deficiencies of the model, from which useful additional data requirements are derived, giving a guideline for new measurements. These new measurements may in turn lead to improved process concepts. The improved process concepts are finally summarized in an updated hydrological model. In this thesis I demonstrate such a learning cycle, focusing on the advancement of model evaluation methods and more cost effective measurements. For a successful model evaluation, I propose that three questions should be answered: 1) when is a model reproducing observations in a satisfactory way? 2) If model results deviate, of what nature is the difference? And 3) what are most likely the relevant model components affecting these differences? To answer the first two questions, I developed a new method to assess the temporal dynamics of model performance (or TIGER - TIme series of Grouped Errors). This method is powerful in highlighting recurrent patterns of insufficient model behaviour for long simulation periods. I answered the third question with the analysis of the temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivity (TEDPAS). For calculating TEDPAS, an efficient method for sensitivity analysis is necessary. I used such an efficient method called Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test, which has a smart sampling scheme. Combining the two methods TIGER and TEDPAS provided a powerful tool for model assessment. With WaSiM-ETH applied to the Weisseritz catchment as a case study, I found insufficient process descriptions for the snow dynamics and for the recession during dry periods in late summer and fall. Focusing on snow dynamics, reasons for poor model performance can either be a poor representation of snow processes in the model, or poor data on snow cover, or both. To obtain an improved data set on snow cover, time series of snow height and temperatures were collected with a cost efficient method based on temperature measurements on multiple levels at each location. An algorithm was developed to simultaneously estimate snow height and cold content from these measurements. Both, snow height and cold content are relevant quantities for spring flood forecasting. Spatial variability was observed at the local and the catchment scale with an adjusted sampling design. At the local scale, samples were collected on two perpendicular transects of 60 m length and analysed with geostatistical methods. The range determined from fitted theoretical variograms was within the range of the sampling design for 80% of the plots. No patterns were found, that would explain the random variability and spatial correlation at the local scale. At the watershed scale, locations of the extensive field campaign were selected according to a stratified sample design to capture the combined effects of elevation, aspect and land use. The snow height is mainly affected by the plot elevation. The expected influence of aspect and land use was not observed. To better understand the deficiencies of the snow module in WaSiM-ETH, the same approach, a simple degree day model was checked for its capability to reproduce the data. The degree day model was capable to explain the temporal variability for plots with a continuous snow pack over the entire snow season, if parameters were estimated for single plots. However, processes described in the simple model are not sufficient to represent multiple accumulation-melt-cycles, as observed for the lower catchment. Thus, the combined spatio-temporal variability at the watershed scale is not captured by the model. Further tests on improved concepts for the representation of snow dynamics at the Weißeritz are required. From the data I suggest to include at least rain on snow and redistribution by wind as additional processes to better describe spatio-temporal variability. Alternatively an energy balance snow model could be tested. Overall, the proposed learning cycle is a useful framework for targeted model improvement. The advanced model diagnostics is valuable to identify model deficiencies and to guide field measurements. The additional data collected throughout this work helps to get a deepened understanding of the processes in the Weisseritz catchment.
Calibration of the global hydrological model WGHM with water mass variations from GRACE gravity data
(2010)
Since the start-up of the GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) mission in 2002 time dependent global maps of the Earth's gravity field are available to study geophysical and climatologically-driven mass redistributions on the Earth's surface. In particular, GRACE observations of total water storage changes (TWSV) provide a comprehensive data set for analysing the water cycle on large scales. Therefore they are invaluable for validation and calibration of large-scale hydrological models as the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM) which simulates the continental water cycle including its most important components, such as soil, snow, canopy, surface- and groundwater. Hitherto, WGHM exhibits significant differences to GRACE, especially for the seasonal amplitude of TWSV. The need for a validation of hydrological models is further highlighted by large differences between several global models, e.g. WGHM, the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) and the Land Dynamics model (LaD). For this purpose, GRACE links geodetic and hydrological research aspects. This link demands the development of adequate data integration methods on both sides, forming the main objectives of this work. They include the derivation of accurate GRACE-based water storage changes, the development of strategies to integrate GRACE data into a global hydrological model as well as a calibration method, followed by the re-calibration of WGHM in order to analyse process and model responses. To achieve these aims, GRACE filter tools for the derivation of regionally averaged TWSV were evaluated for specific river basins. Here, a decorrelation filter using GRACE orbits for its design is most efficient among the tested methods. Consistency in data and equal spatial resolution between observed and simulated TWSV were realised by the inclusion of all most important hydrological processes and an equal filtering of both data sets. Appropriate calibration parameters were derived by a WGHM sensitivity analysis against TWSV. Finally, a multi-objective calibration framework was developed to constrain model predictions by both river discharge and GRACE TWSV, realised with a respective evolutionary method, the ε-Non-dominated-Sorting-Genetic-Algorithm-II (ε-NSGAII). Model calibration was done for the 28 largest river basins worldwide and for most of them improved simulation results were achieved with regard to both objectives. From the multi-objective approach more reliable and consistent simulations of TWSV within the continental water cycle were gained and possible model structure errors or mis-modelled processes for specific river basins detected. For tropical regions as such, the seasonal amplitude of water mass variations has increased. The findings lead to an improved understanding of hydrological processes and their representation in the global model. Finally, the robustness of the results is analysed with respect to GRACE and runoff measurement errors. As a main conclusion obtained from the results, not only soil water and snow storage but also groundwater and surface water storage have to be included in the comparison of the modelled and GRACE-derived total water budged data. Regarding model calibration, the regional varying distribution of parameter sensitivity suggests to tune only parameter of important processes within each region. Furthermore, observations of single storage components beside runoff are necessary to improve signal amplitudes and timing of simulated TWSV as well as to evaluate them with higher accuracy. The results of this work highlight the valuable nature of GRACE data when merged into large-scale hydrological modelling and depict methods to improve large-scale hydrological models.
Flood hazard estimations are conducted with a variety of methods. These include flood frequency analysis (FFA), hydrologic and hydraulic modelling, probable maximum discharges as well as climate scenarios. However, most of these methods assume stationarity of the used time series, i.e., the series must not exhibit trends. Against the background of climate change and proven significant trends in atmospheric circulation patterns, it is questionable whether these changes are also reflected in the discharge data. The aim of this PhD thesis is therefore to clarify, in a spatially-explicit manner, whether the available discharge data derived from selected German catchments exhibit trends. Concerning the flood hazard, the suitability of the currently used stationary FFA approaches is evaluated for the discharge data. Moreover, dynamics in atmospheric circulation patterns are studied and the link between trends in these patterns and discharges is investigated. To tackle this research topic, a number of different analyses are conducted. The first part of the PhD thesis comprises the study and trend test of 145 discharge series from catchments, which cover most of Germany for the period 1951–2002. The seasonality and trend pattern of eight flood indicators, such as maximum series and peak-over-threshold series, are analyzed in a spatially-explicit manner. Analyses are performed on different spatial scales: at the local scale, through gauge-specific analyses, and on the catchment-wide and basin scales. Besides the analysis of discharge series, data on atmospheric circulation patterns (CP) are an important source of information, upon which conclusions about the flood hazard can be drawn. The analyses of these circulation patterns (after Hess und Brezowsky) and the study of the link to peak discharges form the second part of the thesis. For this, daily data on the dominant CP across Europe are studied; these are represented by different indicators, which are tested for trend. Moreover, analyses are performed to extract flood triggering circulation patterns and to estimate the flood potential of CPs. Correlations between discharge series and CP indicators are calculated to assess a possible link between them. For this research topic, data from 122 meso-scale catchments in the period 1951–2002 are used. In a third part, the Mulde catchment, a mesoscale sub-catchment of the Elbe basin, is studied in more detail. Fifteen discharge series of different lengths in the period 1910–2002 are available for the seasonally differentiated analysis of the flood potential of CPs and flood influencing landscape parameters. For trend tests of discharge and CP data, different methods are used. The Mann-Kendall test is applied with a significance level of 10%, ensuring statistically sound results. Besides the test of the entire series for trend, multiple time-varying trend tests are performed with the help of a resampling approach in order to better differentiate short-term fluctuations from long-lasting trends. Calculations of the field significance complement the flood hazard assessment for the studied regions. The present thesis shows that the flood hazard is indeed significantly increasing for selected regions in Germany during the winter season. Especially affected are the middle mountain ranges in Central Germany. This increase of the flood hazard is attributed to a longer persistence of selected CPs during winter. Increasing trends in summer floods are found in the Rhine and Danube catchments, decreasing trends in the Elbe and Weser catchments. Finally, a significant trend towards a reduced diversity of CPs is found causing fewer patterns with longer persistence to dominate the weather over Europe. The detailed study of the Mulde catchment reveals a flood regime with frequent low winter floods and fewer summer floods, which bear, however, the potential of becoming extreme. Based on the results, the use of instationary approaches for flood hazard estimation is recommended in order to account for the detected trends in many of the series. Through this methodology it is possible to directly consider temporal changes in flood series, which in turn reduces the possibility of large under- or overestimations of the extreme discharges, respectively.
Die Untersuchung widmet sich der aktuellen Bedeutung von Ethnizität im ländlichen Raum der rumänischen Dobrudscha unter dem Einfluss der politischen und ökonomischen Dimension von Globalisierung. Im Mittelpunkt der Betrachtung von Ethnizität stehen die Aspekte von Inklusion und Exklusion sowie Selbst- und Fremdbeschreibung, die dem sozialen Wandel unterliegen. Mit einem Überblick über die Geschichte der räumlich, wirtschaftlich und sozial peripheren Untersuchungsregion Dobrudscha und der ausgewählten Minderheitengruppen wird die Entwicklung der ethnischen Zusammensetzung der Bevölkerung in der Region dargestellt. Als Fallbeispiele werden sechs Minderheitengruppen gewählt: Aromunen, Roma, russische Lipowaner, Tataren, Türken und Ukrainer. Zentrales Element der Studie bilden qualitative Interviews mit professionellen Beobachtern und Akteuren einerseits, die selbst Einfluss auf die soziale Bedeutung von Ethnizität nehmen, und andererseits mit Einwohnern in 15 ausgewählten Untersuchungsorten in der Dobrudscha. Die erhobenen Daten werden mit Blick auf die soziale Rolle von Ethnizität anhand von drei Faktorengruppen ausgewertet: Globalisierung der Ökonomie, Minderheiten- und Kulturpolitik sowie internationale Beziehungen. Auf dieser Grundlage wird die regionale und lokale Bedeutung ethnischer Kategorisierungen analysiert, um die Wahrnehmung und Bewertung ethnischer Zuordnungen im örtlichen Lebensumfeld zu erfassen.
Vor dem Hintergrund der Auffassung, dass ethnische Minderheiten eine Form so-zialer Organisation darstellen, verfolgt die Studie – unter Berücksichtigung der Mehr-deutigkeit des Raumbegriffs – das Ziel, anhand von Beispielen aus Rumänien ein Konzept zu entwickeln, mit dem sich die aktuelle Beziehung von Ethnizität und Raum im Transformationsprozess adäquat analysieren und beschreiben lässt.
Die Zielsetzung der vorliegenden Arbeit ist die Beschreibung hydrophober Bodeneigenschaften und deren Auswirkungen auf Oberflächenabfluss und Erosion auf verschiedenen Skalen. Die dazu durchgeführten Untersuchungen fanden auf einer Rekultivierungsfläche im Braunkohlegebiet Welzow Süd (Südostdeutschland) statt. Die Prozesse wurden auf drei Skalen untersucht, die von der Plotskala (1m²) über die Hangskala (300m²) bis zur Betrachtung eines kleinen Einzugsgebietes (4ha) reichen. Der Grad der hydrophoben Bodeneigenschaften wurde sowohl direkt, über die Bestimmung des Kontaktwinkel, als auch indirekt, über die Bestimmung der Persistenz, ermittelt. Dabei zeigte sich, dass der Boden im Winterhalbjahr hydrophil reagierte, während er im Sommerhalbjahr hydrophobe Bodeneigenschaften aufwies. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass ansteigende Bodenwassergehalte, die in der Literatur häufig als Ursache für einen Wechsel der Bodeneigenschaften angegeben werden, auf dieser Fläche nicht zu einem Umbruch der Bodenbedingungen führen. Stattdessen kam es als Folge des Auftauens von gefrorenem Boden zu hydrophilen Bodeneigenschaften, die zu einem Anstieg des Bodenwassergehalts führten. Räumliche Unterschiede zeigten sich in den geomorphologischen Einheiten. Rinnen und Rillen wiesen seltener hydrophobe Eigenschaften als die Zwischenrillenbereiche und Kuppen auf. Diese räumlichen und zeitlichen Variabilitäten wirkten sich auch auf den Oberflächenabfluss aus, der als Abflussbeiwert (ABW: Quotient aus Abfluss und Niederschlag) untersucht wurde. Der ABW liegt auf Böden mit hydrophoben Bodeneigenschaften (ABW=0,8) deutlich höher als bei jenen mit hydrophilen Eigenschaften(ABW=0,2), wie sie im Winter oder auf anderem Substrat vorzufinden sind (diese Werte beziehen sich auf die Plotskala). Betrachtet man die Auswirkungen auf unterschiedlichen Skalen, nimmt der Abflussbeiwert mit zunehmender Flächengröße ab (ABW = 0,8 auf der Plotskala, ABW = 0,5 auf der Hangskala und ABW = 0,2 im gesamten Gebiet), was in den hydrophil reagierenden Rillen und Rinnen auf der Hangskala und dem hydrophilen Substrat im Einzugsgebiet begründet ist. Zur Messung der Erosion wurden verschiedene, zum Teil neu entwickelte Methoden eingesetzt, um eine hohe zeitliche und räumliche Auflösung zu erreichen. Bei einer neu entwickelten Methode wird der Sedimentaustrag ereignisbezogen über eine Waage bestimmt. In Kombination mit einer Kippwaage ermöglicht sie die gleichzeitige Messung des Oberflächenabflusses. Die Messapparatur wurde für Gebiete entwickelt, die eine überwiegend grobsandige Textur aufweisen und nur geringe Mengen Ton und Schluff enthalten. Zusätzlich wurden zwei Lasersysteme zur Messung der räumlichen Verteilung der Erosion eingesetzt. Für die erste Methode wurde ein punktuell messender Laser in einer fest installierten Apparatur über die Fläche bewegt und punktuell Höhenunterschiede in einem festen Raster bestimmt. Durch Interpolation konnten Bereiche mit Sedimentabtrag von Akkumulationsbereiche unterschieden werden. Mit dieser Methode können auch größere Flächen vermessen werden (hier 16 m²), allerdings weisen die Messungen in den Übergangsbereichen von Rinne zu Zwischenrille große Fehler auf. Bei der zweiten Methode wird mit einer Messung ein Quadratmeter mit einer hohen räumlichen Auflösung komplett erfasst. Um ein dreidimensionales Bild zu erstellen, müssen insgesamt vier Aufnahmen von jeweils unterschiedlichen Seiten aufgenommen werden. So lassen sich Abtrag und Akkumulation sehr genau bestimmen, allerdings ist die Messung relativ aufwendig und erfasst nur eine kleine Fläche. Zusätzlich wurde der Sedimentaustrag noch auf der Plotskala erfasst. Die Messungen zeigen, korrespondierend zu den Bodeneigenschaften, große Sedimentausträge während des Sommerhalbjahrs und kaum Austräge im Winter. Weiterhin belegen die Ergebnisse eine größere Bedeutung der Rillenerosion gegenüber der Zwischenrillenerosion für Niederschlagsereignisse hoher Intensität (>25 mm/h in einem zehnminütigem Intervall). Im Gegensatz dazu dominierte die Zwischenrillenerosion bei Ereignissen geringerer Intensität (<20 mm/h in einem zehnminütigem Intervall), wobei mindestens 9 mm Niederschlag in einer Intensität von mindesten 3,6 mm/h nötig sind, damit es zur Erosion kommt. Basierend auf den gemessenen Abflüssen und Sedimentausträgen wurden Regressiongleichungen abgeleitet, die eine Berechnung dieser beiden Prozesse für die untersuchte Fläche ermöglichen. Während die Menge an Oberflächenabfluss einen starken Zusammenhang zu der Menge an gefallenem Niederschlag zeigt (r² = 0,9), ist die Berechnung des ausgetragenen Sedimentes eher ungenau (r² = 0,7). Zusammenfassend beschreibt die Arbeit Einflüsse hydrophober Bodeneigenschaften auf verschiedenen Skalen und arbeitet die Auswirkungen, die vor allem auf der kleinen Skala von großer Bedeutung sind, heraus.
Motivations and research objectives: During the passage of rain water through a forest canopy two main processes take place. First, water is redistributed; and second, its chemical properties change substantially. The rain water redistribution and the brief contact with plant surfaces results in a large variability of both throughfall and its chemical composition. Since throughfall and its chemistry influence a range of physical, chemical and biological processes at or below the forest floor the understanding of throughfall variability and the prediction of throughfall patterns potentially improves the understanding of near-surface processes in forest ecosystems. This thesis comprises three main research objectives. The first objective is to determine the variability of throughfall and its chemistry, and to investigate some of the controlling factors. Second, I explored throughfall spatial patterns. Finally, I attempted to assess the temporal persistence of throughfall and its chemical composition. Research sites and methods: The thesis is based on investigations in a tropical montane rain forest in Ecuador, and lowland rain forest ecosystems in Brazil and Panama. The first two studies investigate both throughfall and throughfall chemistry following a deterministic approach. The third study investigates throughfall patterns with geostatistical methods, and hence, relies on a stochastic approach. Results and Conclusions: Throughfall is highly variable. The variability of throughfall in tropical forests seems to exceed that of many temperate forests. These differences, however, do not solely reflect ecosystem-inherent characteristics, more likely they also mirror management practices. Apart from biotic factors that influence throughfall variability, rainfall magnitude is an important control. Throughfall solute concentrations and solute deposition are even more variable than throughfall. In contrast to throughfall volumes, the variability of solute deposition shows no clear differences between tropical and temperate forests, hence, biodiversity is not a strong predictor of solute deposition heterogeneity. Many other factors control solute deposition patterns, for instance, solute concentration in rainfall and antecedent dry period. The temporal variability of the latter factors partly accounts for the low temporal persistence of solute deposition. In contrast, measurements of throughfall volume are quite stable over time. Results from the Panamanian research site indicate that wet and dry areas outlast consecutive wet seasons. At this research site, throughfall exhibited only weak or pure nugget autocorrelation structures over the studies lag distances. A close look at the geostatistical tools at hand provided evidence that throughfall datasets, in particular those of large events, require robust variogram estimation if one wants to avoid outlier removal. This finding is important because all geostatistical throughfall studies that have been published so far analyzed their data using the classical, non-robust variogram estimator.
Water shortage is a serious threat for many societies worldwide. In drylands, water management measures like the construction of reservoirs are affected by eroded sediments transported in the rivers. Thus, the capability of assessing water and sediment fluxes at the river basin scale is of vital importance to support management decisions and policy making. This subject was addressed by the DFG-funded SESAM-project (Sediment Export from large Semi-Arid catchments: Measurements and Modelling). As a part of this project, this thesis focuses on (1) the development and implementation of an erosion module for a meso-scale catchment model, (2) the development of upscaling and generalization methods for the parameterization of such model, (3) the execution of measurements to obtain data required for the modelling and (4) the application of the model to different study areas and its evaluation. The research was carried out in two meso-scale dryland catchments in NE-Spain: Ribera Salada (200 km²) and Isábena (450 km²). Adressing objective 1, WASA-SED, a spatially semi-distributed model for water and sediment transport at the meso-scale was developed. The model simulates runoff and erosion processes at the hillslope scale, transport processes of suspended and bedload fluxes in the river reaches, and retention and remobilisation processes of sediments in reservoirs. This thesis introduces the model concept, presents current model applications and discusses its capabilities and limitations. Modelling at larger scales faces the dilemma of describing relevant processes while maintaining a manageable demand for input data and computation time. WASA-SED addresses this challenge by employing an innovative catena-based upscaling approach: the landscape is represented by characteristic toposequences. For deriving these toposequences with regard to multiple attributes (eg. topography, soils, vegetation) the LUMP-algorithm (Landscape Unit Mapping Program) was developed and related to objective 2. It incorporates an algorithm to retrieve representative catenas and their attributes, based on a Digital Elevation Model and supplemental spatial data. These catenas are classified to provide the discretization for the WASA-SED model. For objective 3, water and sediment fluxes were monitored at the catchment outlet of the Isábena and some of its sub-catchments. For sediment yield estimation, the intermittent measurements of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) had to be interpolated. This thesis presents a comparison of traditional sediment rating curves (SRCs), generalized linear models (GLMs) and non-parametric regression using Random Forests (RF) and Quantile Regression Forests (QRF). The observed SSCs are highly variable and range over six orders of magnitude. For these data, traditional SRCs performed poorly, as did GLMs, despite including other relevant process variables (e.g. rainfall intensities, discharge characteristics). RF and QRF proved to be very robust and performed favourably for reproducing sediment dynamics. QRF additionally excels in providing estimates on the accuracy of the predictions. Subsequent analysis showed that most of the sediment was exported during intense storms of late summer. Later floods yielded successively less sediment. Comparing sediment generation to yield at the outlet suggested considerable storage effects within the river channel. Addressing objective 4, the WASA-SED model was parameterized for the two study areas in NE Spain and applied with different foci. For Ribera Salada, the uncalibrated model yielded reasonable results for runoff and sediment. It provided quantitative measures of the change in runoff and sediment yield for different land-uses. Additional land management scenarios were presented and compared to impacts caused by climate change projections. In contrast, the application for the Isábena focussed on exploring the full potential of the model's predictive capabilities. The calibrated model achieved an acceptable performance for the validation period in terms of water and sediment fluxes. The inadequate representation of the lower sub-catchments inflicted considerable reductions on model performance, while results for the headwater catchments showed good agreement despite stark contrasts in sediment yield. In summary, the application of WASA-SED to three catchments proved the model framework to be a practicable multi-scale approach. It successfully links the hillslope to the catchment scale and integrates the three components hillslope, river and reservoir in one model. Thus, it provides a feasible approach for tackling issues of water and sediment yield at the meso-scale. The crucial role of processes like transmission losses and sediment storage in the river has been identified. Further advances can be expected when the representation of connectivity of water and sediment fluxes (intra-hillslope, hillslope-river, intra-river) is refined and input data improves.
Forests are a key resource serving a multitude of functions such as providing income to forest owners, supplying industries with timber, protecting water resources, and maintaining biodiversity. Recently much attention has been given to the role of forests in the global carbon cycle and their management for increased carbon sequestration as a possible mitigation option against climate change. Furthermore, the use of harvested wood can contribute to the reduction of atmospheric carbon through (i) carbon sequestration in wood products, (ii) the substitution of non-wood products with wood products, and (iii) through the use of wood as a biofuel to replace fossil fuels. Forest resource managers are challenged by the task to balance these multiple while simultaneously meeting economic requirements and taking into consideration the demands of stakeholder groups. Additionally, risks and uncertainties with regard to uncontrollable external variables such as climate have to be considered in the decision making process. In this study a scientific stakeholder dialogue with forest-related stakeholder groups in the Federal State of Brandenburg was accomplished. The main results of this dialogue were the definition of major forest functions (carbon sequestration, groundwater recharge, biodiversity, and timber production) and priority setting among them by the stakeholders using the pair-wise comparison technique. The impact of different forest management strategies and climate change scenarios on the main functions of forest ecosystems were evaluated at the Kleinsee management unit in south-east Brandenburg. Forest management strategies were simulated over 100 years using the forest growth model 4C and a wood product model (WPM). A current climate scenario and two climate change scenarios based on global circulation models (GCMs) HadCM2 and ECHAM4 were applied. The climate change scenario positively influenced stand productivity, carbon sequestration, and income. The impact on the other forest functions was small. Furthermore, the overall utility of forest management strategies were compared under the priority settings of stakeholders by a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) method. Significant differences in priority setting and the choice of an adequate management strategy were found for the environmentalists on one side and the more economy-oriented forest managers of public and private owned forests on the other side. From an ecological perspective, a conservation strategy would be preferable under all climate scenarios, but the business as usual management would also fit the expectations under the current climate. In contrast, a forest manager in public-owned forests or a private forest owner would prefer a management strategy with an intermediate thinning intensity and a high share of pine stands to enhance income from timber production while maintaining the other forest functions. The analysis served as an example for the combined application of simulation tools and a MCA method for the evaluation of management strategies under multi-purpose and multi-user settings with changing climatic conditions. Another focus was set on quantifying the overall effect of forest management on carbon sequestration in the forest sector and the wood industry sector plus substitution effects. To achieve this objective, the carbon emission reduction potential of material and energy substitution (Smat and Sen) was estimated based on a literature review. On average, for each tonne of dry wood used in a wood product substituting a non-wood product, 0.71 fewer tonnes of fossil carbon are emitted into to the atmosphere. Based on Smat and Sen, the calculation of the carbon emission reduction through substitution was implemented in the WPM. Carbon sequestration and substitution effects of management strategies were simulated at three local scales using the WPM and the forest growth models 4C (management unit level) or EFISCEN (federal state of Brandenburg and Germany). An investigation was conducted on the influence of uncertainties in the initialisation of the WPM, Smat, and basic conditions of the wood product sector on carbon sequestration. Results showed that carbon sequestration in the wood industry sector plus substitution effects exceeded sequestration in the forest sector. In contrast to the carbon pools in the forest sector, which acted as sink or source, the substitution effects continually reduced carbon emission as long as forests are managed and timber is harvested. The main climate protection function was investigated for energy substitution which accounted for about half of the total carbon sequestration, followed by carbon storage in landfills. In Germany, the absolute annual carbon sequestration in the forest and wood industry sector plus substitution effects was 19.9 Mt C. Over 50 years the wood industry sector contributed 70% of the total carbon sequestration plus substitution effects.
River reaches protected by dikes exhibit high damage potential due to strong value accumulation in the hinterland areas. While providing an efficient protection against low magnitude flood events, dikes may fail under the load of extreme water levels and long flood durations. Hazard and risk assessments for river reaches protected by dikes have not adequately considered the fluvial inundation processes up to now. Particularly, the processes of dike failures and their influence on the hinterland inundation and flood wave propagation lack comprehensive consideration. This study focuses on the development and application of a new modelling system which allows a comprehensive flood hazard assessment along diked river reaches under consideration of dike failures. The proposed Inundation Hazard Assessment Model (IHAM) represents a hybrid probabilistic-deterministic model. It comprises three models interactively coupled at runtime. These are: (1) 1D unsteady hydrodynamic model of river channel and floodplain flow between dikes, (2) probabilistic dike breach model which determines possible dike breach locations, breach widths and breach outflow discharges, and (3) 2D raster-based diffusion wave storage cell model of the hinterland areas behind the dikes. Due to the unsteady nature of the 1D and 2D coupled models, the dependence between hydraulic load at various locations along the reach is explicitly considered. The probabilistic dike breach model describes dike failures due to three failure mechanisms: overtopping, piping and slope instability caused by the seepage flow through the dike core (micro-instability). The 2D storage cell model driven by the breach outflow boundary conditions computes an extended spectrum of flood intensity indicators such as water depth, flow velocity, impulse, inundation duration and rate of water rise. IHAM is embedded in a Monte Carlo simulation in order to account for the natural variability of the flood generation processes reflected in the form of input hydrographs and for the randomness of dike failures given by breach locations, times and widths. The model was developed and tested on a ca. 91 km heavily diked river reach on the German part of the Elbe River between gauges Torgau and Vockerode. The reach is characterised by low slope and fairly flat extended hinterland areas. The scenario calculations for the developed synthetic input hydrographs for the main river and tributary were carried out for floods with return periods of T = 100, 200, 500, 1000 a. Based on the modelling results, probabilistic dike hazard maps could be generated that indicate the failure probability of each discretised dike section for every scenario magnitude. In the disaggregated display mode, the dike hazard maps indicate the failure probabilities for each considered breach mechanism. Besides the binary inundation patterns that indicate the probability of raster cells being inundated, IHAM generates probabilistic flood hazard maps. These maps display spatial patterns of the considered flood intensity indicators and their associated return periods. Finally, scenarios of polder deployment for the extreme floods with T = 200, 500, 1000 were simulated with IHAM. The developed IHAM simulation system represents a new scientific tool for studying fluvial inundation dynamics under extreme conditions incorporating effects of technical flood protection measures. With its major outputs in form of novel probabilistic inundation and dike hazard maps, the IHAM system has a high practical value for decision support in flood management.
This thesis aims to quantify the human impact on the natural resource water at the landscape scale. The drivers in the federal state of Brandenburg (Germany), the area under investigation, are land-use changes induced by policy decisions at European and federal state level. The water resources of the federal state are particularly sensitive to changes in land-use due to low precipitation rates in the summer combined with sandy soils and high evapotranspiration rates. Key elements in landscape hydrology are forests because of their unique capacity to transport water from the soil to the atmosphere. Given these circumstances, decisions made at any level of administration that may have effects on the forest sector in the state are critical in relation to the water cycle. It is therefore essential to evaluate any decision that may change forest area and structure in such a sensitive region. Thus, as a first step, it was necessary to develop and implement a model able to simulate possible interactions and feedbacks between forested surfaces and the hydrological cycle at the landscape scale. The result is a model for simulating the hydrological properties of forest stands based on a robust computation of the temporal and spatial LAI (leaf area index) dynamics. The approach allows the simulation of all relevant hydrological processes with a low parameter demand. It includes the interception of precipitation and transpiration of forest stands with and without groundwater in the rooting zone. The model also considers phenology, biomass allocation, as well as mortality and simple management practices. It has been implemented as a module in the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model). This model has been tested in two pre-studies to verify the applicability of its hydrological process description for the hydrological conditions typical for the state. The newly implemented forest module has been tested for Scots Pine (Pinus sylvestris) and in parts for Common Oak (Quercus robur and Q. petraea) in Brandenburg. For Scots Pine the results demonstrate a good simulation of annual biomass increase and LAI in addition to the satisfactory simulation of litter production. A comparison of the simulated and measured data of the May sprout for Scots pine and leaf unfolding for Oak, as well as the evaluation against daily transpiration measurements for Scots Pine, does support the applicability of the approach. The interception of precipitation has also been simulated and compared with weekly observed data for a Scots Pine stand which displays satisfactory results in both the vegetation periods and annual sums. After the development and testing phase, the model is used to analyse the effects of two scenarios. The first scenario is an increase in forest area on abandoned agricultural land that is triggered by a decrease in European agricultural production support. The second one is a shift in species composition from predominant Scots Pine to Common Oak that is based on decisions of the regional forestry authority to support a more natural species composition. The scenario effects are modelled for the federal state of Brandenburg on a 50m grid utilising spatially explicit land-use patterns. The results, for the first scenario, suggest a negative impact of an increase in forest area (9.4% total state area) on the regional water balance, causing an increase in mean long-term annual evapotranspiration of 3.7% at 100% afforestation when compared to no afforestation. The relatively small annual change conceals a much more pronounced seasonal effect of a mean long-term evapotranspiration increase by 25.1% in the spring causing a pronounced reduction in groundwater recharge and runoff. The reduction causes a lag effect that aggravates the scarcity of water resources in the summer. In contrast, in the second scenario, a change in species composition in existing forests (29.2% total state area) from predominantly Scots Pine to Common Oak decreases the long-term annual mean evapotranspiration by 3.4%, accompanied by a much weaker, but apparent, seasonal pattern. Both scenarios exhibit a high spatial heterogeneity because of the distinct natural conditions in the different regions of the state. Areas with groundwater levels near the surface are particularly sensitive to changes in forest area and regions with relatively high proportion of forest respond strongly to the change in species composition. In both cases this regional response is masked by a smaller linear mean effect for the total state area. Two critical sources of uncertainty in the model results have been investigated. The first one originates from the model calibration parameters estimated in the pre-study for lowland regions, such as the federal state. The combined effect of the parameters, when changed within their physical meaningful limits, unveils an overestimation of the mean water balance by 1.6%. However, the distribution has a wide spread with 14.7% for the 90th percentile and -9.9% for the 10th percentile. The second source of uncertainty emerges from the parameterisation of the forest module. The analysis exhibits a standard deviation of 0.6 % over a ten year period in the mean of the simulated evapotranspiration as a result of variance in the key forest parameters. The analysis suggests that the combined uncertainty in the model results is dominated by the uncertainties of calibration parameters. Therefore, the effect of the first scenario might be underestimated because the calculated increase in evapotranspiration is too small. This may lead to an overestimation of the water balance towards runoff and groundwater recharge. The opposite can be assumed for the second scenario in which the decrease in evapotranspiration might be overestimated.
Flood polders are part of the flood risk management strategy for many lowland rivers. They are used for the controlled storage of flood water so as to lower peak discharges of large floods. Consequently, the flood hazard in adjacent and downstream river reaches is decreased in the case of flood polder utilisation. Flood polders are usually dry storage reservoirs that are typically characterised by agricultural activities or other land use of low economic and ecological vulnerability. The objective of this thesis is to analyse hydraulic, environmental and economic impacts of the utilisation of flood polders in order to draw conclusions for their management. For this purpose, hydrodynamic and water quality modelling as well as an economic vulnerability assessment are employed in two study areas on the Middle Elbe River in Germany. One study area is an existing flood polder system on the tributary Havel, which was put into operation during the Elbe flood in summer 2002. The second study area is a planned flood polder, which is currently in the early planning stages. Furthermore, numerical models of different spatial dimensionality, ranging from zero- to two-dimensional, are applied in order to evaluate their suitability for hydrodynamic and water quality simulations of flood polders in regard to performance and modelling effort. The thesis concludes with overall recommendations on the management of flood polders, including operational schemes and land use. In view of future changes in flood frequency and further increasing values of private and public assets in flood-prone areas, flood polders may be effective and flexible technical flood protection measures that contribute to a successful flood risk management for large lowland rivers.
Human transformation of the Earth’s land surface has far-reaching and important consequences for the functioning of hydrological and hydrochemical processes in watersheds. In nowadays land-use change from forest to pasture is a major issue in particular in the tropics. A sustainable management of deforested areas requires an in-depth understanding of the water and nutrient cycle. On this basis we compared the involved hydrological pathways for rainfall to reach streams and the nutrient budgets of a tropical rainforest and a pasture. In addition we studied the links of hydrochemical differences to differences of the relative importance of flowpaths. This study was conducted in the southwestern part of the Brazilian Amazon basin. An intensive hydrological and hydrochemical sampling and monitoring network was set up. The results indicate that the hydrology was modified in many ways due to land-use change. The most important alteration was the increased importance of the fast flowpath overland flow. Solute exports were in particular linked to the increased volume of overland flow that resulted from the land-use change. An additional reason for the increased nutrient exports from the pasture are the high concentrations of these nutrients in pasture overland flow probably as a due to cattle excrements. Tight nutrient cycles with minimal nutrient losses could not be maintained after the land-use change. This study provides the first attempt to quantify the respective nutrient losses.
This PhD thesis presents the spatio-temporal distribution of terrestrial carbon fluxes for the time period of 1982 to 2002 simulated by a combination of the process-based dynamic global vegetation model LPJ and a 21-year time series of global AVHRR-fPAR data (fPAR – fraction of photosynthetically active radiation). Assimilation of the satellite data into the model allows improved simulations of carbon fluxes on global as well as on regional scales. As it is based on observed data and includes agricultural regions, the model combined with satellite data produces more realistic carbon fluxes of net primary production (NPP), soil respiration, carbon released by fire and the net land-atmosphere flux than the potential vegetation model. It also produces a good fit to the interannual variability of the CO2 growth rate. Compared to the original model, the model with satellite data constraint produces generally smaller carbon fluxes than the purely climate-based stand-alone simulation of potential natural vegetation, now comparing better to literature estimates. The lower net fluxes are a result of a combination of several effects: reduction in vegetation cover, consideration of human influence and agricultural areas, an improved seasonality, changes in vegetation distribution and species composition. This study presents a way to assess terrestrial carbon fluxes and elucidates the processes contributing to interannual variability of the terrestrial carbon exchange. Process-based terrestrial modelling and satellite-observed vegetation data are successfully combined to improve estimates of vegetation carbon fluxes and stocks. As net ecosystem exchange is the most interesting and most sensitive factor in carbon cycle modelling and highly uncertain, the presented results complementary contribute to the current knowledge, supporting the understanding of the terrestrial carbon budget.
Wälder haben im Bezug zum Klimawandel mehrere Rollen: Sie sind Kohlenstoffspeicher, -senken, sowie Lieferanten von Holz als Rohstoff für die Kohlenstoffspeicher in Produkten und für Substitution fossiler Energieträger. Unter Klimaschutzgesichtspunkten ist es wünschenswert, die Kohlenstoffbindung im Gesamtsystem aus Senken, Speichern und Substitution zu maximieren und zu entscheiden, welche Maßnahme an welchem Ort und unter welchen Rahmenbedingungen den größten positiven Effekt auf die CO2-Bilanz hat. Um die Speicherung in den verschiedenen Kompartimenten erfassen zu können müssen geeignete Inventurverfahren zur Verfügung stehen. Die IPCC – GPG benennen die Speicher und geben zum Teil Anforderungen an die zu erreichende Inventurgenauigkeit. Aus der klassischen Forsteinrichtung stehen genügend Methoden zur Verfügung, um das oberirdische Volumen sehr genau zu erheben. Um den Anforderungen an ein umfassendes Kohlenstoffmonitoring genügen zu können, müssen diese Verfahren in den Bereichen Erfassung von Störungsfolgen, Totholzdynamik, Boden und der Berechnung von Gesamt-Kohlenstoffvorräten aus dem Holzvolumen ergänzt werden. Zusätzlich bietet sich an, Bewirtschaftungsmaßnahmen entsprechend zu erfassen, um ihre Auswirkung auf die Kohlenstoffdynamik ebenfalls feststellen zu können. Dies ist für die Berichterstattung zwischen Inventuren sowie für die Herausrechnung von nicht-menschenverursachter erhöhter Kohlenstoffspeicherung („factoring out“ im Sinne des KP) wünschenswert. Wenn Bewirtschaftungsmaßnahmen unterschieden werden können und ihre Auswirkungen auf C-Vorräte bestimmbar sind, ist eine Verifizierung erhöhter Speicherung auch z. B. für Projekte nach Art. 3.4 des KP durchführbar. Diese Arbeiten stecken jedoch noch in der Anfangsphase. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurde die erste verfügbare qualitative Übersicht zu dieser Thematik erstellt. Die Optimierung der Wald-Holz-Option wird durch die im Kyoto-Protokoll (und den zugehörigen Folgeabkommen) vereinbarten Regelungen erschwert, da einerseits zwischen Wald und Produkten eine Trennung besteht und andererseits die Maßnahmenverantwortlichem im Wald nicht direkt durch das KP angesprochen werden. Eingeschlagenes Holz wird im Wald als Emission betrachtet und dem entsprechenden Sektor zugerechnet, was jedoch keine Auswirkungen auf den Forstbetrieb hat. Dieser profitiert im Gegenteil derzeit von der durch die – auch von KP Regelungen beeinflussten – Holzpreise und erhöht die Nutzungen, was zu Vorratsabsenkungen im Wald führt. Ob diese Absenkungen durch die Substitutionseffekte des geernteten Holzes kompensiert werden ist derzeit noch nicht geklärt. Um die Trennung zwischen Wald und Produktpool aufzuweichen bietet es sich an, die Waldbesitzer am Emissionsrechtehandel teilhaben zu lassen, damit nicht nur die Ernte sondern auch der Ernteverzicht finanziell bewertbar sind. Sozio-ökonomische Szenarien zur künftigen Entwicklung der Landwirtschaft zeigen große Flächenpotentiale, die für die Nahrungs- und Futtermittelproduktion nicht mehr benötigt werden oder nicht mehr rentabel sein werden. Eine mögliche Nutzung in Zukunft sind Energieholzplantagen. Informationen zu möglichen Erträgen sind zur Zeit noch unzureichend und Analysen zur Nachhaltigkeit dieser Erträge unter Klimawandel sind nicht vorhanden. In dieser Arbeit wurde mit dem ökophysiologischen Waldwachstumsmodell 4C an Beispielsstandorten in Brandenburg das Wachstum von Energieholzplantagen unter derzeitigem Klima und unter verschiedenen regionalisierten Klimawandelszenarien bis 2055 simuliert. Ertragspotentiale liegen derzeit auf der Mehrzahl der Standorte im positiven Bereich, auf einigen Standorten ist jedoch nur begrenzt mit positiven Deckungsbeiträgen zu rechnen. Bis 2055 ist in allen Szenarien mit einem leichten Rückgang der Erträge und einer deutlicheren Verringerung der Grundwasserneubildung unter Energieholzplantagen zu rechnen. Die Unterschiede zwischen Standorten sind jedoch derzeit und unter zukünftig möglichem Klima stärker als klimabedingte Änderungen. Bei der großflächigen Anlage von Energieholzplantagen können negative Auswirkungen auf die Biodiversität und andere Naturschutzbelange eintreten. Eine diese Effekte abmildernde Flächengestaltung, die trotzdem Erträge auf dem Niveau heutiger Vollerwerbslandwirtschaft erreicht, ist möglich. Insgesamt lässt sich für die Optimierung der Wald-Holz-Option feststellen, dass eine Nicht-Nutzung bestehender Waldflächen unter Klimaschutzgesichtspunkten negativ ist. Der Substitutionseffekt geernteten Holzes beträgt zusätzliche ca. 70 Prozent Kohlenstoff, die in dieser Form in nicht bewirtschafteten mitteleuropäischen Wäldern nicht zusätzlich gespeichert werden. Es ist davon auszugehen, dass sich durch die Berücksichtigung von Substitutionseffekten andere – wahrscheinlich kürzere – als die heute üblichen Produktionszeiten ergeben. Auf bisher waldfreien Flächen ist die Anlage von Energieholzplantagen positiver zu werten als eine normale Aufforstung.
The objective of this thesis is to improve the knowledge of control mechanisms of hydrological induced mass movements. To this end, detailed hydrological process studies and physically-based hydrological modelling were applied. The study site is a hillslope in the Dornbirn Ache valley near Bregenz, Austria. This so called Heumös slope features a deep-seated translational shear zone and surface near creep movements of up to 10 cm a year. The Cretaceous marlstones of the Austrian Helveticum have a high susceptibility for weathering and might form clay-rich cohesive sediments. In addition, glacial and post-glacial processes formed an unstable hillslope. High yearly precipitation depths of about 2100 mm and rainstorms with both high intensities and precipitation depths govern surface and subsurface hydrological processes. Pressure propagation induced in hydrological active areas influences laterally the groundwater reactions of the moving mass. A complex three-dimensional subsurface pressure system is the cause for fast groundwater reactions despite low hydraulic conductivities. To understand hillslope scale variability, hydrotopes representing specific dominating processes were mapped using vegetation association distribution and soil core analysis. Detailed small-scale soil investigations followed to refine the understanding of these hydrotopes. A perceptional model was developed from the hydrotope distribution and was corroborated by these detailed investigations. The moving hillslope is dominated by surface-runoff generation. Infiltration and deep percolation of water is inhibited through clay-rich gleysols; the yearly average soil moisture is close to saturation. Steep slopes adjacent to the moving hillslope are far more active concerning infiltration, preferential flow and groundwater fluctuations. Spring discharge observations at the toe of the steep slopes are in close relation to groundwater table observations on the moving hillslope body. Evidence of pressure propagation from the steep slopes towards the hillslope body is gathered by comparison of dominating structures and processes. The application of the physically-based hydrological model CATFLOW substantiates the idea of pressure propagation as a key process for groundwater reactions and as a possible trigger for movement in the hillslope.
Semiaride Gebiete sind hauptsächlich durch geringe Wasserressourcen gekennzeichnet und unterliegen häufig dem Risiko der Wasserknappheit. In diesen Gebieten ist die Wasserbereitstellung für Bewässerung und Trinkwasserversorgung stark von der oberflächlichen Speicherung in Stauseen abhängig, deren Wasserverfügbarkeit nachteilig durch Sedimentablagerung beeinflusst wird. Zur Wiedergabe des komplexen Sedimentablagerungsverhaltens in Stauseen von semiariden Gebieten und die Auswirkungen von Sedimentmanagementmaßnahmen wird ein Sedimentationsmodell entwickelt und mit dem WASA-SED Modell gekoppelt, das für die Modellierung der Abflussbildung und des Sedimenttransportes in Einzugsgebieten geeignet ist. Das Sedimentationsmodell beinhaltet zwei Ansätze, die unter der Berücksichtigung verschiedener Stauseengrößenklassen und Datenverfügbarkeit eingesetzt werden können. Für die Stauseen mit verfügbaren Informationen über ihre geometrischen Eigenschaften (wie Stauseetopographie und Höhe-Fläche-Volumen-Beziehung) und weitere Kenngrößen wie Ablagerungsmächtigkeit, Korngrößenverteilung und Sedimentdichte, kann ein detaillierter Modellansatz für die Sedimentablagerung verwendet werden. Wo diese Informationen nicht verfügbar sind, wird auf einen vereinfachten Ansatz zurückgegriffen. Der detaillierte Modellansatz ermöglicht die Betrachtung von Ablagerungsmustern im Stausee und Einschätzungen über die Effektivität von Sedimentmanagementmaßnahmen hinsichtlich der Sedimententlastung. Dieser Ansatz beruht auf der Simulation des Sedimenttransportes entlang eines Stauseelängsprofils. Für die Berechnung des Sedimenttransfers wird der Stauseekörper in einer Folge von Querprofilen repräsentiert. Der Sedimenttransport wird dabei korngrößenspezifisch entsprechend der Transportkapazität berechnet. Dafür stehen vier verschiedenen Sedimenttransportgleichungen zur Verfügung. Der vereinfachte Modellansatz ist für die Simulation des Sedimenttransfers in Gebieten mit hoher Stauseedichte geeignet, jedoch können weder Sedimentmanagementmaßnahmen noch die räumliche Verteilung der Ablagerungen berücksichtigt werden. Dafür werden die Stauseen in Abhängigkeit von ihrer Größe und Position in kleine und strategische Stauseen unterteilt. Dabei sind strategische Stausseen solche mit mittlerem bis großem Volumen sowie einer Lage im Hauptgerinne oder solche mit sonstiger besonderer Bedeutung. Kleine Stauseen hingegen befinden sich an den Nebenflüssen und werden im Modell in aggregierter Form durch ihre Einteilung in Stauseegrößenklassen repräsentiert. Ein Kaskadenverfahren wird für den Wasser- und Sedimentlauf zwischen den Stauseeklassen verwendet. Dabei werden für jede Stauseeklasse der Wasser- sowie Sedimenthaushalt für einen hypothetischen repräsentativen Stausee mit mittleren Eigenschaften berechnet. Die Sedimentaufnahme und die Korngrößenverteilung des abgegebenen Sediments werden mit dem Überlaufanteil-Ansatz berechnet. In dieser Studie werden drei Modellanwendungen vorgestellt: • Für den 92,2 Mio.m³-großen Barasona-Stausee (Vorland der Zentralpyrenäen, Aragon, Spanien) wird die Modellierung der Sedimentablagerung mit dem detaillierten Modellansatz vorgenommen. Die Kalibrierung dafür wurde in zwei Schritten durchgeführt, um Änderungen im Stauseemanagement Rechnung zu tragen. Die ModellValidierung wird schließlich für eine andere Simulationsperiode vorgenommen. Dabei wird ersichtlich, dass die Prozesse der Sedimentablagerung gut durch das Modell wiedergegeben werden. • Das Modell wird auf das 933 km²-große Benguê-Einzugsgebiet, das sich im semiariden Nordosten Brasiliens befindet, angewendet. Dieses Einzugsgebiet ist durch eine hohe Dichte an kleinen Stauseen, charakterisiert, die fast 45% des Gebietes umfasst, wofür jedoch wenige Messdaten verfügbar sind. Deshalb werden der Wasser- und Sedimenttransport mit dem vereinfachten Modellansatz berechnet. Dabei werden drei Konfigurationen des Kaskadenverfahrens getestet. • Die Modellanwendung erfolgt erneut für den Barasona-Stausee bezüglich der Effektivität der Sedimentmanagementmaßnahmen. Eine Kostenanalyse ermöglicht die Auswahl geeigneter Maßnahmen für den Stausee. Dadurch wird eine Beurteilung der verschiedenen Sedimentmanagementstrategien ermöglicht. Im Allgemeinen unterliegen die Simulationsergebnisse großen Unsicherheiten, teilweise wegen der geringen Datenverfügbarkeit, andererseits durch die Unsicherheiten in der Modellstruktur zur korrekten Wiedergabe der Sedimentablagerungsprozesse.
Streamflow dynamics in mountainous environments are controlled by runoff generation processes in the basin upstream. Runoff generation processes are thus a major control of the terrestrial part of the water cycle, influencing both, water quality and water quantity as well as their dynamics. The understanding of these processes becomes especially important for the prediction of floods, erosion, and dangerous mass movements, in particular as hydrological systems often show threshold behavior. In case of extensive environmental changes, be it in climate or in landuse, the understanding of runoff generation processes will allow us to better anticipate the consequences and can thus lead to a more responsible management of resources as well as risks. In this study the runoff generation processes in a small undisturbed catchment in the Chilean Andes were investigated. The research area is characterized by steep hillslopes, volcanic ash soils, undisturbed old growth forest and high rainfall amounts. The investigation of runoff generation processes in this data scarce area is of special interest as a) little is known on the hydrological functioning of the young volcanic ash soils, which are characterized by extremely high porosities and hydraulic conductivities, b) no process studies have been carried out in this area at either slope or catchment scale, and c) understanding the hydrological processes in undisturbed catchments will provide a basis to improve our understanding of disturbed systems, the shift in processes that followed the disturbance and maybe also future process evolution necessary for the achievement of a new steady state. The here studied catchment has thus the potential to serve as a reference catchment for future investigations. As no long term data of rainfall and runoff exists, it was necessary to replace long time series of data with a multitude of experimental methods, using the so called "multi-method approach". These methods cover as many aspects of runoff generation as possible and include not only the measurement of time series such as discharge, rainfall, soil water dynamics and groundwater dynamics, but also various short term measurements and experiments such as determination of throughfall amounts and variability, water chemistry, soil physical parameters, soil mineralogy, geo-electrical soundings and tracer techniques. Assembling the results like pieces of a puzzle produces a maybe not complete but nevertheless useful picture of the dynamic ensemble of runoff generation processes in this catchment. The employed methods were then evaluated for their usefulness vs. expenditures (labour and financial costs). Finally, the hypotheses - the perceptual model of runoff generation generated from the experimental findings - were tested with the physically based model Catflow. Additionally the process-based model Wasim-ETH was used to investigate the influence of landuse on runoff generation at the catchment scale. An initial assessment of hydrologic response of the catchment was achieved with a linear statistical model for the prediction of event runoff coefficients. The parameters identified as best predictors give a first indication of important processes. Various results acquired with the "multi-method approach" show that response to rainfall is generally fast. Preferential vertical flow is of major importance and is reinforced by hydrophobicity during the summer months. Rapid lateral water transport is necessary to produce the fast response signal, however, while lateral subsurface flow was observed at several soil moisture profiles, the location and type of structures causing fast lateral flow on the hillslope scale is still not clear and needs to be investigated in more detail. Surface runoff has not been observed and is unlikely due to the high hydraulic conductivities of the volcanic ash soils. Additionally, a large subsurface storage retains most of the incident rainfall amount during events (>90%, often even >95%) and produces streamflow even after several weeks of drought. Several findings suggest a shift in processes from summer to winter causing changes in flow patterns, changes in response of stream chemistry to rainfall events and also in groundwater-surface water interactions. The results of the modelling study confirm the importance of rapid and preferential flow processes. However, due to the limited knowledge on subsurface structures the model still does not fully capture runoff response. Investigating the importance of landuse on runoff generation showed that while peak runoff generally increased with deforested area, the location of these areas also had an effect. Overall, the "multi-method approach" of replacing long time series with a multitude of experimental methods was successful in the identification of dominant hydrological processes and thus proved its applicability for data scarce catchments under the constraint of limited resources.
As land-cover conversion continues to expand into ever more remote areas in the humid tropics, montane rainforests are increasingly threatened. In the south Ecuadorian Andes, they are not only subject to man-made disturbances but also to naturally occurring landslides. I was interested in the impact of this ecosystem dynamics on a key parameter of the hydrologic cycle, the soil saturated hydraulic conductivity (synonym: permeability; Ks from here on), because it is a sensitive indicator for soil disturbances. My general objective was to quantify the effects of the regional natural and human disturbances on the saturated hydraulic conductivity and to describe the resulting spatial-temporal patterns. The main hypotheses were: 1) disturbances cause an apparent displacement of the less permeable soil layer towards the surface, either due to a loss of the permeable surface soil after land-sliding, or as a consequence of the surface soil compaction under cattle pastures; 2) ‘recovery’ from disturbance, either because of landslide re-vegetation or because of secondary succession after pasture abandonment, involves an apparent displacement of the less permeable layer back towards the original depth an 3) disturbances cause a simplification of the Ks spatial structure, i.e. the spatially dependent random variation diminishes; the subsequent recovery entails the re-establishment of the original structure. In my first study, I developed a synthesis of recent geostatistical research regarding its applicability to soil hydraulic data, including exploratory data analysis and variogram estimation techniques; I subsequently evaluated the results in terms of spatial prediction uncertainty. Concerning the exploratory data analysis, my main results were: 1) Gaussian uni- and bivariate distributions of the log-transformed data; 2) the existence of significant local trends; 3) no need for robust estimation; 4) no anisotropic variation. I found partly considerable differences in covariance parameters resulting from different variogram estimation techniques, which, in the framework of spatial prediction, were mainly reflected in the spatial connectivity of the Ks-field. Ignoring the trend component and an arbitrary use of robust estimators, however, would have the most severe consequences in this respect. Regarding variogram modeling, I encouraged restricted maximum likelihood estimation because of its accuracy and independence on the selected lags needed for experimental variograms. The second study dealt with the Ks spatial-temporal pattern in the sequences of natural and man-made disturbances characteristic for the montane rainforest study area. To investigate the disturbance effects both on global means and the spatial structure of Ks, a combined design-and model-based sampling approach was used for field-measurements at soil depths of 12.5, 20, and 50 cm (n=30-150/depth) under landslides of different ages (2 and 8 years), under actively grazed pasture, fallows following pasture abandonment (2 to 25 years of age), and under natural forest. Concerning global means, our main findings were 1) global means of the soil permeability generally decrease with increasing soil depth; 2) no significant Ks differences can be observed among landslides and compared to the natural forest; 3) a distinct permeability decrease of two orders of magnitude occurs after forest conversion to pasture at shallow soil depths, and 4) the slow regeneration process after pasture abandonment requires at least one decade. Regarding the Ks spatial structure, we found that 1) disturbances affect the Ks spatial structure in the topsoil, and 2) the largest differences in spatial patterns are associated with the subsoil permeability. In summary, the regional landslide activity seems to affect soil hydrology to a marginal extend only, which is in contrast to the pronounced drop of Ks after forest conversion. We used this spatial-temporal information combined with local rain intensities to assess the partitioning of rainfall into vertical and lateral flowpaths under undisturbed, disturbed, and regenerating land-cover types in the third study. It turned out that 1) the montane rainforest is characterized by prevailing vertical flowpaths in the topsoil, which can switch to lateral directions below 20 cm depth for a small number of rain events, which may, however, transport a high portion of the annual runoff; 2) similar hydrological flowpaths occur under the landslides except for a somewhat higher probability of impermeable layer formation in the topsoil of a young landslide, and 3) pronounced differences in runoff components can be observed for the human disturbance sequence involving the development of near-surface impeding layers for 24, 44, and 8 % of rain events for pasture, a two-year-old fallow, and a ten-year-old fallow, respectively.
Ziel dieser Arbeit war es, die Stickstoff- und Phosphorprozesse im nordostdeutschen Tiefland detailliert zu untersuchen und Handlungsoptionen hinsichtlich der Landnutzung zur nachhaltigen Steuerung der Stickstoff- und Phosphoreinträge in die Fließgewässer aufzuzeigen. Als Grundvoraussetzung für die Modellierung des Nährstoffhaushaltes mussten zunächst die hydrologischen Prozesse und die Abflüsse für die Einzugsgebiete validiert werden. Dafür wurde in dieser Arbeit das ökohydrologische Modell SWIM verwendet. Die Abflussmodellierung umfasste den Zeitraum 1991 - 2000. Die Ergebnisse dazu zeigen, dass SWIM in der Lage war, die hydrologischen Prozesse in den Untersuchungsgebieten adäquat wiederzugeben. Auf der Grundlage der Modellierung des Wasserhaushaltes wurden mit SWIM die Stoffumsatzprozesse für den Zeitraum 1996 - 2000 simuliert. Um dabei besonders das Prozessgeschehen im Tiefland zu berücksichtigen, war die Erweiterung von SWIM um einen Ammonium-Pool mit dessen Umsatzprozessen erforderlich. Außerdem wurde der Prozess der Nährstoffversickerung so ergänzt, dass neben Nitrat auch Ammonium und Phosphat durch das gesamte Bodenprofil verlagert und über die Abflusskomponenten zum Gebietsauslass transportiert werden können. Mit diesen Modellerweiterungen konnten die Stickstoff und Phosphorprozesse in den Untersuchungsgebieten gut abgebildet werden. Mit dem so validierten Modell wurden weitere Anwendungen ermöglicht. Nährstoffsimulationen für den Zeitraum 1981 bis 2000 dienten der Untersuchung des abnehmenden Trends in den Nährstoffkonzentrationen der Nuthe. Die Untersuchungsergebnisse lassen deutlich erkennen, dass sich die Konzentrationen nach 1990 hauptsächlich auf Grund der Reduzierung der Einträge aus punktförmigen Quellen und Rieselfeldern verringert haben. Weitere Modellrechnungen zur Herkunft der Nährstoffe haben ergeben, dass Nitrat überwiegend aus diffusen Quellen, Ammonium und Phosphat dagegen aus punktförmigen Quellen stammen. Als besonders sensitiv auf die Modellergebnisse haben sich die Parameter zu Landnutzung und -management und die Durchwurzelungstiefe der Pflanzen herausgestellt. Abschließend wurden verschiedene Landnutzungsszenarien angewendet. Die Ergebnisse zu den Szenariorechnungen zeigen, dass fast alle vorgegebenen Landnutzungsszenarien zu einer Verringerung der Stickstoff- bzw. Phosphoremissionen führten. Die Anwendung von Szenarien, die alle relevanten Zielvorgaben und Empfehlungen zum Ressourcenschutz berücksichtigen, zeigen die größten Veränderungen.
Sicherung und Entwicklung von Böden und ihren Funktionen in Niederungen durch Naturschutzmaßnahmen
(2007)
Mit dem 1999 in Kraft getretenen Bundesbodenschutzgesetz ist eine wichtige Grundlage geschaffen, den Boden u. a. stärker in Planungs- und Zulassungsverfahren zu berücksichtigen. Die Ziele des Gesetzes, die nachhaltige Sicherung und Wiederherstellung von Bodenfunktionen, können wegen fehlender gesetzlicher Instrumente allerdings nicht eigenständig umgesetzt werden. Eine Schnittstelle zur Realisierung bodenbezogener Erhaltungs- und Entwicklungsziele bieten deshalb naturschutzrechtliche Instrumente wie die Landschaftsplanung, die Eingriffsregelung und Pflege- und Entwicklungspläne von Schutzgebieten. Am Beispiel beeinträchtigter Niederungsböden wird in der Arbeit hinterfragt und aufgezeigt, inwieweit auf das Schutzgut Boden bezogene Maßnahmenplanungen wie Wiedervernässung und Extensivierung mit naturschutzrechtlichen Instrumenten effektiv erstellt und umgesetzt werden können. Es liegt die Hypothese zugrunde, dass eine genaue Ist-Zustandserfassung von Niederungsböden auf Grundlage der in der naturschutzfachlichen Planungspraxis gängig herangezogenen Kartengrundlagen nicht möglich ist. Für die Bestimmung der Entwicklungspotenziale von Niederungsböden sowie die Erarbeitung detaillierter Maßnahmenplanungen ist eine gezielte Vor-Ort-Erhebung planungsrelevanter Bodenmerkmale erforderlich, auf die jedoch häufig verzichtet wird. Zudem wird bisher den Wirkungen von Maßnahmen auf das Leistungsvermögen und die Funktionsfähigkeit sowie den erforderlichen Ausgangsvoraussetzungen zu wenig Beachtung geschenkt. Dies erschwert die Umsetzung mit naturschutzrechtlichen Instrumenten. Ziel der Arbeit ist es, verallgemeinerbare Handlungsempfehlungen für die Durchführung von Vor-Ort-Erhebungen und die Ableitung von Aufwertungspotenzialen von Niederungsböden für eine zielgerichtete Maßnahmenkonzeption und sachgerechte Umsetzung zu formulieren. Auf der Basis einer Literaturanalyse und einer Untersuchung der aktuellen Standortausprägung in einem Beispielgebiet, dem Polder "Götz-Gollwitz", der in der entwässerten Niederung der "Mittleren Havel" (Bundesland Brandenburg)liegt, - wird untersucht, wie die Maßnahmen Wiedervernässung und Extensivierung auf die Bodeneigenschaften wirken und welche Veränderungen zum Erhalt und zur Verbesserung der Funktionsfähigkeit der Böden führen. - werden die aktuellen Substrat- und Bodentypen, die hydromorphen Verhältnisse sowie die Vegetationsausprägung gekennzeichnet. Es erfolgt ein Vergleich der Ergebnisse mit der Aussagekraft von standortkundlichen Kartenwerken. - werden Entwicklungsszenarien skizziert. Es wird aufgezeigt, welche Ausgangsvoraussetzungen und durchzuführenden Maßnahmen für die Erreichung bodenbezogener Ziele im Polder "Götz-Gollwitz" erforderlich und welche Wirkungen dabei auf den Boden, die derzeitige Flächennutzung sowie auf die Biotop- und Artenausstattung zu erwarten sind. Auf Basis der prognostizierten Standortveränderungen erfolgt die Diskussion, inwieweit es in Abhängigkeit der Szenarien bzw. der dabei getätigten Maßnahmen im Einzelnen zum Erhalt bzw. zur Verbesserung der Funktionsfähigkeit von Böden kommt. Für die Formulierung von Handlungsempfehlungen - wird anhand dreier häufig auftretender Ausgangszustände eine vom Beispielgebiet losgelöste Diskussion zum Erhalt und zu Verbesserungsmöglichkeiten der Leistungs- und Funktionsfähigkeit von Böden geführt. Dabei erfolgt die Unterscheidung, ob konkrete Maßnahmen als Ausgleichs- und Ersatzmaßnahmen aus der naturschutzrechtlichen Eingriffsregelung oder durch Pflege- und Entwicklungspläne als sonstige Minderungs-, Erhaltungs- oder Entwicklungsmaßnahmen umgesetzt werden können. - werden die Aktualität sowie Flächen- und Aussagenschärfe von Kartengrundlagen bewertet und ein Teil der Bodenparameter bestimmt, die unbedingt im Gelände zu erheben sind, um Ziele und Maßnahmen gezielter abzuleiten. - wird aus den Untersuchungen abgeleitet, mit welchem Aufwand und Methoden eine Überprüfung der aktuellen Standortausprägung zu erfolgen hat. Die Herleitung eines vertretbaren Erhebungsaufwandes (Punktdichte und -anordnung) wird durch verschiedene Rechenbeispiele unterstützt, die auf Basis der Honorarordnung für Architekten und Ingenieure (HOAI) und der im Beispielgebiet aufgebrachten Arbeitszeit kalkuliert werden. Die Vorgehensweise für die Prüfung und Erhebung des aktuellen Bodenzustandes sowie Ableitung der Aufwertungspotenziale von Bodenfunktionen wird in einem Ablaufschema dargestellt. Schlussfolgerungen beziehen sich auf Erreichung bodenbezogener Zielvorstellung in Abhängigkeit von den Anforderungen naturschutzrechtlicher Planungsinstrumente. Es wird die Bedeutung von Vor-Ort-Erhebungen als wertvollen Planungsbeitrag herausgestellt und die Notwendigkeit und Möglichkeiten aufgezeigt, für die Ebene der Maßnahmenplanung finanzielle Mittel zur Begleichung der Kosten von Vor-Ort-Erhebungen aufzubringen. Die vorliegende Arbeit leistet einen substanziellen Beitrag dazu, bodenbezogene Maßnahmenplanungen in Niederungsgebieten künftig realistischer und sachgerecht mit Instrumenten des Naturschutzes durchführen zu können.
A water quality model for shallow river-lake systems and its application in river basin management
(2007)
This work documents the development and application of a new model for simulating mass transport and turnover in rivers and shallow lakes. The simulation tool called 'TRAM' is intended to complement mesoscale eco-hydrological catchment models in studies on river basin management. TRAM aims at describing the water quality of individual water bodies, using problem- and scale-adequate approaches for representing their hydrological and ecological characteristics. The need for such flexible water quality analysis and prediction tools is expected to further increase during the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) as well as in the context of climate change research. The developed simulation tool consists of a transport and a reaction module with the latter being highly flexible with respect to the description of turnover processes in the aquatic environment. Therefore, simulation approaches of different complexity can easily be tested and model formulations can be chosen in consideration of the problem at hand, knowledge of process functioning, and data availability. Consequently, TRAM is suitable for both heavily simplified engineering applications as well as scientific ecosystem studies involving a large number of state variables, interactions, and boundary conditions. TRAM can easily be linked to catchment models off-line and it requires the use of external hydrodynamic simulation software. Parametrization of the model and visualization of simulation results are facilitated by the use of geographical information systems as well as specific pre- and post-processors. TRAM has been developed within the research project 'Management Options for the Havel River Basin' funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research. The project focused on the analysis of different options for reducing the nutrient load of surface waters. It was intended to support the implementation of the WFD in the lowland catchment of the Havel River located in North-East Germany. Within the above-mentioned study TRAM was applied with two goals in mind. In a first step, the model was used for identifying the magnitude as well as spatial and temporal patterns of nitrogen retention and sediment phosphorus release in a 100~km stretch of the highly eutrophic Lower Havel River. From the system analysis, strongly simplified conceptual approaches for modeling N-retention and P-remobilization in the studied river-lake system were obtained. In a second step, the impact of reduced external nutrient loading on the nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations of the Havel River was simulated (scenario analysis) taking into account internal retention/release. The boundary conditions for the scenario analysis such as runoff and nutrient emissions from river basins were computed by project partners using the catchment models SWIM and ArcEGMO-Urban. Based on the output of TRAM, the considered options of emission control could finally be evaluated using a site-specific assessment scale which is compatible with the requirements of the WFD. Uncertainties in the model predictions were also examined. According to simulation results, the target of the WFD -- with respect to total phosphorus concentrations in the Lower Havel River -- could be achieved in the medium-term, if the full potential for reducing point and non-point emissions was tapped. Furthermore, model results suggest that internal phosphorus loading will ease off noticeably until 2015 due to a declining pool of sedimentary mobile phosphate. Mass balance calculations revealed that the lakes of the Lower Havel River are an important nitrogen sink. This natural retention effect contributes significantly to the efforts aimed at reducing the river's nitrogen load. If a sustainable improvement of the river system's water quality is to be achieved, enhanced measures to further reduce the immissions of both phosphorus and nitrogen are required.
The terrestrial biosphere impacts considerably on the global carbon cycle. In particular, ecosystems contribute to set off anthropogenic induced fossil fuel emissions and hence decelerate the rise of the atmospheric CO₂ concentration. However, the future net sink strength of an ecosystem will heavily depend on the response of the individual processes to a changing climate. Understanding the makeup of these processes and their interaction with the environment is, therefore, of major importance to develop long-term climate mitigation strategies. Mathematical models are used to predict the fate of carbon in the soil-plant-atmosphere system under changing environmental conditions. However, the underlying processes giving rise to the net carbon balance of an ecosystem are complex and not entirely understood at the canopy level. Therefore, carbon exchange models are characterised by considerable uncertainty rendering the model-based prediction into the future prone to error. Observations of the carbon exchange at the canopy scale can help learning about the dominant processes and hence contribute to reduce the uncertainty associated with model-based predictions. For this reason, a global network of measurement sites has been established that provides long-term observations of the CO₂ exchange between a canopy and the atmosphere along with micrometeorological conditions. These time series, however, suffer from observation uncertainty that, if not characterised, limits their use in ecosystem studies. The general objective of this work is to develop a modelling methodology that synthesises physical process understanding with the information content in canopy scale data as an attempt to overcome the limitations in both carbon exchange models and observations. Similar hybrid modelling approaches have been successfully applied for signal extraction out of noisy time series in environmental engineering. Here, simple process descriptions are used to identify relationships between the carbon exchange and environmental drivers from noisy data. The functional form of these relationships are not prescribed a priori but rather determined directly from the data, ensuring the model complexity to be commensurate with the observations. Therefore, this data-led analysis results in the identification of the processes dominating carbon exchange at the ecosystem scale as reflected in the data. The description of these processes may then lead to robust carbon exchange models that contribute to a faithful prediction of the ecosystem carbon balance. This work presents a number of studies that make use of the developed data-led modelling approach for the analysis and interpretation of net canopy CO₂ flux observations. Given the limited knowledge about the underlying real system, the evaluation of the derived models with synthetic canopy exchange data is introduced as a standard procedure prior to any real data employment. The derived data-led models prove successful in several different applications. First, the data-based nature of the presented methods makes them particularly useful for replacing missing data in the observed time series. The resulting interpolated CO₂ flux observation series can then be analysed with dynamic modelling techniques, or integrated to coarser temporal resolution series for further use e.g., in model evaluation exercises. However, the noise component in these observations interferes with deterministic flux integration in particular when long time periods are considered. Therefore, a method to characterise the uncertainties in the flux observations that uses a semi-parametric stochastic model is introduced in a second study. As a result, an (uncertain) estimate of the annual net carbon exchange of the observed ecosystem can be inferred directly from a statistically consistent integration of the noisy data. For the forest measurement sites analysed, the relative uncertainty for the annual sum did not exceed 11 percent highlighting the value of the data. Based on the same models, a disaggregation of the net CO₂ flux into carbon assimilation and respiration is presented in a third study that allows for the estimation of annual ecosystem carbon uptake and release. These two components can then be further analysed for their separate response to environmental conditions. Finally, a fourth study demonstrates how the results from data-led analyses can be turned into a simple parametric model that is able to predict the carbon exchange of forest ecosystems. Given the global network of measurements available the derived model can now be tested for generality and transferability to other biomes. In summary, this work particularly highlights the potential of the presented data-led methodologies to identify and describe dominant carbon exchange processes at the canopy level contributing to a better understanding of ecosystem functioning.
Soils contain a large amount of carbon (C) that is a critical regulator of the global C budget. Already small changes in the processes governing soil C cycling have the potential to release considerable amounts of CO2, a greenhouse gas (GHG), adding additional radiative forcing to the atmosphere and hence to changing climate. Increased temperatures will probably create a feedback, causing soils to release more GHGs. Furthermore changes in soil C balance impact soil fertility and soil quality, potentially degrading soils and reducing soils function as important resource. Consequently the assessment of soil C dynamics under present, recent past and future environmental conditions is not only of scientific interest and requires an integrated consideration of main factors and processes governing soil C dynamics. To perform this assessment an eco-hydrological modelling tool was used and extended by a process-based description of coupled soil carbon and nitrogen turnover. The extended model aims at delivering sound information on soil C storage changes beside changes in water quality, quantity and vegetation growth under global change impacts in meso- to macro-scale river basins, exemplary demonstrated for a Central European river basin (the Elbe). As a result this study: ▪ Provides information on joint effects of land-use (land cover and land management) and climate changes on croplands soil C balance in the Elbe river basin (Central Europe) presently and in the future. ▪ Evaluates which processes, and at what level of process detail, have to be considered to perform an integrated simulation of soil C dynamics at the meso- to macro-scale and demonstrates the model’s capability to simulate these processes compared to observations. ▪ Proposes a process description relating soil C pools and turnover properties to readily measurable quantities. This reduces the number of model parameters, enhances the comparability of model results to observations, and delivers same performance simulating long-term soil C dynamics as other models. ▪ Presents an extensive assessment of the parameter and input data uncertainty and their importance both temporally and spatially on modelling soil C dynamics. For the basin scale assessments it is estimated that croplands in the Elbe basin currently act as a net source of carbon (net annual C flux of 11 g C m-2 yr-1, 1.57 106 tons CO2 yr-1 entire croplands on average). Although this highly depends on the amount of harvest by-products remaining on the field. Future anticipated climate change and observed climate change in the basin already accelerates soil C loss and increases source strengths (additional 3.2 g C m-2 yr-1, 0.48 106 tons CO2 yr-1 entire croplands). But anticipated changes of agro-economic conditions, translating to altered crop share distributions, display stronger effects on soil C storage than climate change. Depending on future use of land expected to fall out of agricultural use in the future (~ 30 % of croplands area as “surplus” land), the basin either considerably looses soil C and the net annual C flux to the atmosphere increases (surplus used as black fallow) or the basin converts to a net sink of C (sequestering 0.44 106 tons CO2 yr-1 under extensified use as ley-arable) or reacts with decrease in source strength when using bioenergy crops. Bioenergy crops additionally offer a considerable potential for fossil fuel substitution (~37 PJ, 1015 J per year), whereas the basin wide use of harvest by-products for energy generation has to be seen critically although offering an annual energy potential of approximately 125 PJ. Harvest by-products play a central role in soil C reproduction and a percentage between 50 and 80 % should remain on the fields in order to maintain soil quality and fertility. The established modelling tool allows quantifying climate, land use and major land management impacts on soil C balance. New is that the SOM turnover description is embedded in an eco-hydrological river basin model, allowing an integrated consideration of water quantity, water quality, vegetation growth, agricultural productivity and soil carbon changes under different environmental conditions. The methodology and assessment presented here demonstrates the potential for integrated assessment of soil C dynamics alongside with other ecosystem services under global change impacts and provides information on the potentials of soils for climate change mitigation (soil C sequestration) and on their soil fertility status.
Durch die Stilllegung der Kali-Gewinnung und -Produktion zwischen 1990 und 1993 sowie die begonnene Rekultivierung der Kali-Rückstandshalden haben sich die Salzfrachteintragsbedingungen für die Fließgwewässer im "Südharz-Kalirevier" in Thüringen zum Teil deutlich verändert. Aufgrund erheblich geringerer Salzeinträge in die Vorfluter Wipper und Bode ist es möglich geworden, zu einer ökologisch verträglichen Salzfrachtsteuerung überzugehen. Die Komplexität der zugrunde liegenden Stofftransportprozesse im Einzugsgebiet der Wipper macht es jedoch unumgänglich, den Steuerungsvorgang nicht nur durch reine Bilanzierungsvorgänge auf der betrachteten Steuerstrecke zu erfassen (so wie bisher praktiziert), sondern auch die Abflussdynamik im Fließgewässer und den Wasserhaushalt im Gebiet mit einzubeziehen. Die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit dienen zum einen einer Vertiefung der Prozessverständnisse und der Interaktion von Wasserhaushalt, Abflussbildung sowie Stofftransport in bergbaubeeinflussten Einzugsgebieten am Beispiel der Unstrut bzw. ihrer relevanten Nebenflüsse. Zum anderen sollen sie zur Analyse und Bewertung eines Bewirtschaftungsplanes für die genannten Fließgewässer herangezogen werden können. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist die Erstellung eines prognosetauglichen Steuerungsinstrumentes, das für die Bewirtschaftung von Flusseinzugsgebieten unterschiedlicher Größe genutzt und unter den Rahmenbedingungen der bergbaubedingten salinaren Einträge effektiv zur Steuerung der anthropogenen Frachten eingesetzt werden kann. Die Quellen der anthropogen eingeleiteten Salzfracht sind vor allem die Rückstandshalden der stillgelegten Kaliwerke. Durch Niederschläge entstehen salzhaltige Haldenabwässer, die zum Teil ungesteuert über oberflächennahe Ausbreitungsvorgänge direkt in die Vorfluter gelangen, ein anderer Teil wird über die Speichereinrichtungen gefasst und gezielt abgestoßen. Durch Undichtigkeiten des Laugenstapelbeckens in Wipperdorf gelangen ebenfalls ungesteuerte Frachteinträge in die Wipper. Ein weiterer Eintragspfad ist zudem die geogene Belastung. Mit Hilfe detaillierter Angaben zu den oben genannten Eintragspfaden konnten Modellrechnungen im Zeitraum von 1992 bis 2003 durchgeführt werden. Durch die Ausarbeitung eines neuartigen Steuerungskonzeptes für das Laugenstapelbecken Wipperdorf, war es nun möglich, die gefasste Haldenlauge entsprechend der aktuellen Abflusssituation gezielt abstoßen zu können. Neben der modelltechnischen Erfassung der aktuellen hydrologischen Situation und der Vorgabe eines Chlorid-Konzentrationssteuerzieles für den Pegel Hachelbich, mussten dabei weitere Randbedingungen (Beckenkapazität, Beckenfüllstand, Mindestfüllstand, Kapazität des Ableitungskanals, usw.) berücksichtigt werden. Es zeigte sich, dass unter Anwendung des Steuerungskonzeptes die Schwankungsbreite der Chloridkonzentration insgesamt gesehen deutlich verringert werden konnte. Die Überschreitungshäufigkeiten bezüglich eines Grenzwertes von 2 g Chlorid/l am Pegel Hachelbich fielen deutlich, und auch die maximale Dauer einer solchen Periode konnte stark verkürzt werden. Kritische Situationen bei der modelltechnischen Frachtzusteuerung traten nur dann auf, wenn Niedrigwasserverhältnisse durch die Simulationsberechnungen noch unterschätzt wurden. Dies hatte deutliche Überschreitungen der Zielvorgaben für den Pegel Hachelbich zur Folge. Mit Hilfe des Steuerungsalgorithmus konnten desweiteren auch Szenarienberechnungen durchgeführt werden, um die Auswirkungen zukünftig zu erwartender Salzfrachten näher spezifizieren zu können. Dabei konnte festgestellt werden, dass Abdichtungsmaßnahmen der Haldenkörper sich direkt positiv auf die Entwicklung der Konzentration in Hachelbich auswirkten. Durch zusätzlich durchgeführte Langzeitszenarien konnte darüber hinaus nachgewiesen werden, dass langfristig eine Grenzwertfestlegung auf 1,5 g Chlorid/l in Hachelbich möglich ist, und die Stapelkapazitäten dazu ausreichend bemessen sind.
The scope of this study is to investigate the environmental change in the German part of the Elbe river basin, whereby the focus is on two water related problems: having too little water and having water of poor quality. The Elbe region is representative of humid to semi-humid landscapes in central Europe, where water availability during the summer season is the limiting factor for plant growth and crop yields, especially in the loess areas, where the annual precipitation is lower than 500 mm. It is most likely that water quantity problems will accelerate in future, because both the observed and the projected climate trend show an increase in temperature and a decrease in annual precipitation, especially in the summer. Another problem is nutrient pollution of rivers and lakes. In the early 1990s, the Elbe was one of the most heavily polluted rivers in Europe. Even though nutrient emissions from point sources have notably decreased in the basin due to reduction of industrial sources and introduction of new and improved sewage treatment facilities, the diffuse sources of pollution are still not sufficiently controlled. The investigations have been done using the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model), which has been embedded in a model framework of climate and agro-economic models. A global scenario of climate and agro-economic change has been regionalized to generate transient climate forcing data and land use boundary conditions for the model. The model was used to transform the climate and land use changes into altered evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge, crop yields and river discharge, and to investigate the development of water quality in the river basin. Particular emphasis was given to assessing the significance of the impacts on the hydrology, taking into account in the analysis the inherent uncertainty of the regional climate change as well as the uncertainty in the results of the model. The average trend of the regional climate change scenario indicates a decrease in mean annual precipitation up to 2055 of about 1.5 %, but with high uncertainty (covering the range from -15.3 % to +14.8 %), and a less uncertain increase in temperature of approximately 1.4 K. The relatively small change in precipitation in conjunction with the change in temperature leads to severe impacts on groundwater recharge and river flow. Increasing temperature induces longer vegetation periods, and the seasonality of the flow regime changes towards longer low flow spells in summer. As a results the water availability will decrease on average of the scenario simulations by approximately 15 %. The increase in temperatures will improve the growth conditions for temperature limited crops like maize. The uncertainty of the climate trend is particularly high in regions where the change is the highest. The simulation results for the Nuthe subbasin of the Elbe indicate that retention processes in groundwater, wetlands and riparian zones have a high potential to reduce the nitrate concentrations of rivers and lakes in the basin, because they are located at the interface between catchment area and surface water bodies, where they are controlling the diffuse nutrient inputs. The relatively high retention of nitrate in the Nuthe basin is due to the long residence time of water in the subsurface (about 40 years), with good conditions for denitrification, and due to nitrate retention and plant uptake in wetlands and riparian zones. The concluding result of the study is that the natural environment and communities in parts of Central Europe will have considerably lower water resources under scenario conditions. The water quality will improve, but due to the long residence time of water and nutrients in the subsurface, this improvement will be slower in areas where the conditions for nutrient turn-over in the subsurface are poor.
At present, carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems slows the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and thereby reduces the impact of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions on the climate system. Changes in climate and land use affect terrestrial biosphere structure and functioning at present, and will likely impact on the terrestrial carbon balance during the coming decades - potentially providing a positive feedback to the climate system due to soil carbon releases under a warmer climate. Quantifying changes, and the associated uncertainties, in regional terrestrial carbon budgets resulting from these effects is relevant for the scientific understanding of the Earth system and for long-term climate mitigation strategies. A model describing the relevant processes that govern the terrestrial carbon cycle is a necessary tool to project regional carbon budgets into the future. This study (1) provides an extensive evaluation of the parameter-based uncertainty in model results of a leading terrestrial biosphere model, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM), against a range of observations and under climate change, thereby complementing existing studies on other aspects of model uncertainty; (2) evaluates different hypotheses to explain the age-related decline in forest growth, both from theoretical and experimental evidence, and introduces the most promising hypothesis into the model; (3) demonstrates how forest statistics can be successfully integrated with process-based modelling to provide long-term constraints on regional-scale forest carbon budget estimates for a European forest case-study; and (4) elucidates the combined effects of land-use and climate changes on the present-day and future terrestrial carbon balance over Europe for four illustrative scenarios - implemented by four general circulation models - using a comprehensive description of different land-use types within the framework of LPJ-DGVM. This study presents a way to assess and reduce uncertainty in process-based terrestrial carbon estimates on a regional scale. The results of this study demonstrate that simulated present-day land-atmosphere carbon fluxes are relatively well constrained, despite considerable uncertainty in modelled net primary production. Process-based terrestrial modelling and forest statistics are successfully combined to improve model-based estimates of vegetation carbon stocks and their change over time. Application of the advanced model for 77 European provinces shows that model-based estimates of biomass development with stand age compare favourably with forest inventory-based estimates for different tree species. Driven by historic changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, forest area and wood demand between 1948 and 2000, the model predicts European-scale, present-day age structure of forests, ratio of biomass removals to increment, and vegetation carbon sequestration rates that are consistent with inventory-based estimates. Alternative scenarios of climate and land-use change in the 21<sup>st century suggest carbon sequestration in the European terrestrial biosphere during the coming decades will likely be on magnitudes relevant to climate mitigation strategies. However, the uptake rates are small in comparison to the European emissions from fossil fuel combustion, and will likely decline towards the end of the century. Uncertainty in climate change projections is a key driver for uncertainty in simulated land-atmosphere carbon fluxes and needs to be accounted for in mitigation studies of the terrestrial biosphere.
Das Ziel dieser Arbeit ist die Untersuchung der Wasserhaushaltsprozesse und Stofftransportvorgänge innerhalb der grundwassergeprägten Talauenlandschaften von Tieflandeinzugsgebieten am Beispiel der im Nordostdeutschen Tiefland gelegenen Havel. Die Arbeiten in verschieden skaligen Teileinzugsgebieten der Havel beschäftigen sich dabei zum einen mit der experimentellen Untersuchung und vorrangig qualitativen Beschreibung der Wasserhaushaltsdynamik, zum anderen mit der Entwicklung eines zur quantitativen Analyse von Wasserhaushalts- und Stofftransportprozessen geeigneten Modells und der anschließenden Modellsimulation von Wasserhaushalt und Stickstoffmetabolik im Grundwasser sowie der Simulation von Landnutzungs- und Gewässerstrukturszenarien. Für die experimentelle Untersuchung der Abflussbildung und der Wasserhaushaltsprozesse in den Talauenlandschaften des Haveleinzugsgebiets wurde Einzugsgebiet der ”Unteren Havel Niederung“ ein umfangreiches Messnetz installiert. Dabei wurden an mehreren Messstationen und Pegeln meteorologische Parameter, Bodenfeuchte sowie Grundwasserstände und Abflüsse beobachtet. Die Analyse der Messergebnisse führte zu einem verbesserten Verständnis von Wasserhaushaltsprozessen in der durch das oberflächennahe Grundwasser und die Oberflächengewässerdynamik beeinflussten Talauenzone. Darüber hinaus konnten durch die Implementierung der Messergebnisse konsistente Anfangs- und Randbedingungen für die Wasserhaushalts- und Grundwassermodellierung im Modellkonzept IWAN realisiert werden. Mit dem Modell IWAN (Integrated Modelling of Water Balance and Nutrient Dynamics) wurde ein Werkzeug geschaffen, welches die Berücksichtigung spezifischer hydrologischer Eigenschaften von Tieflandauen, wie z. B. den Einfluss des oberflächennahen Grundwassers bzw. der Dynamik von Oberflächenwasserständen auf den Wasserhaushalt, ermöglicht. Es basiert auf der Kopplung des deterministischen distribuierten hydrologischen Modells WASIM-ETH mit dem dreidimensionalen Finite-Differenzen-basierten Grundwassermodel MODFLOW. Die Modellierung der Stickstoffmetabolik im Grundwasser erfolgt durch das mit Grundwassermodell gekoppelte Stofftransportmodel MT3D. Zur modellbasierten Simulation des Wasserhaushalts der Tieflandauenlandschaften wurde das Modellkonzept IWAN für verschieden skalige Teileinzugsgebiete an der Havel für Simulationszeiträume von 2 Wochen bis zu 13 Jahren angewandt. Dabei wurden die Teilmodelle für Wasserhaushalts- und Grundwassermodellierung in zwei unterschiedlichen Teileinzugsgebieten der ”Unteren Havel Niederung“ kalibriert. Die anschließende Validierung erfolgte für das gesamte Einzugsgebiet der ”Unteren Havel“. Die Unsicherheiten des Modellansatzes sowie die Anwendbarkeit des Modells im Untersuchungsraum wurden geprüft und die Limitierung der Übertragbarkeit auf andere grundwasserbeeinflusste Tieflandeinzugsgebiete analysiert. Die Ergebnisse der Wasserhaushaltssimulationen führen einerseits zum erweiterten Prozessverständnis des Wasserhaushalts in Flachlandeinzugsgebieten, andererseits ermöglichten sie durch die Quantifizierung einzelner Prozessgrößen die Beurteilung der Steuerungsfunktion einzelner Wasserhaushaltsprozesse. Auf der Basis lokaler Simulationsergebnisse sowie geomorphologischer und gewässermorphologischer Analysen wurde ein Algorithmus entwickelt, welcher die Abgrenzung des direkten Eigeneinzugsgebiets der Havel als Raum der direkten Interaktion zwischen Oberflächengewässer und umgebendem Einzugsgebiet beschreibt. Durch Simulation des Wasserhaushalts im Eigeneinzugsgebiet mit dem Modell IWAN konnten die Interaktionsprozesse zwischen Fluss und Talauenlandschaft quantitativ beschrieben werden. Dies ermöglichte eine Bewertung der Abflussanteile aus dem Eigeneinzugsgebiet sowie eine Quantifizierung der zeitlich variablen Retentionskapazität der Auenlandschaft während Hochwasserereignissen. Zur Abschätzung des Einflusses veränderter Landnutzung und angepassten Managements auf den Wasserhaushalt der Talaue wurden Szenarien entwickelt, welche Änderungen der Landnutzung sowie der Gewässergeometrie implizieren. Die Simulation des Wasserhaushalts unter jeweiligen Szenariobedingungen ermöglichte die detaillierte Analyse sich ändernder Randbedingungen auf den Gebietswasserhaushalt und auf die Austauschprozesse zwischen Grundwasser und Oberflächengewässer. Zur Untersuchung der Stickstoffmetabolik im Grundwasser der Talauenlandschaft wurde das im Modellkonzept IWAN integrierte Stofftransportmodell MT3D für das Eigeneinzugsgebiet der Havel angewandt. Dies ermöglichte eine Bilanzierung der aus dem Grundwasser des Eigeneinzugsgebiets stammenden Nitratfrachtanteile der Havel sowie von Nitratkonzentrationen im Grundwasser. Szenariensimulationen, welche verminderte Nitrateinträge aus der durchwurzelten Bodenzone annehmen, ermöglichten die Quantifizierung der Effizienz von Managementmaßnahmen und Landnutzungsänderungen in Hinblick auf die Minimierung von Einträgen in Grundwasser und Oberflächengewässer.
Die vorliegende Arbeit 'Abflußentwicklung in Teileinzugsgebieten des Rheins - Simulationen für den Ist-Zustand und für Klimaszenarien' untersucht Auswirkungen möglicher zukünftiger Klimaänderungen auf das Abflußgeschehen in ausgewählten, durch Mittelgebirge geprägten Teileinzugsgebieten des Rheins: Mosel (bis Pegel Cochem); Sieg (bis Pegel Menden 1) und Main (bis Pegel Kemmern).In einem ersten Schritt werden unter Verwendung des hydrologischen Modells HBV-D wichtige Modellprozesse entsprechend der Einzugsgebietscharakteristik parametrisiert und ein Abbild der Gebietshydrologie erzeugt, das mit Zeitreihen gemessener Tageswerte (Temperatur, Niederschlag) eine Zeitreihe der Pegeldurchflüsse simulieren kann. Die Güte der Simulation des Ist-Zustandes (Standard-Meßzeitraum 1.1.1961-31.12.1999) ist für die Kalibrierungs- und Validierungszeiträume in allen Untersuchungsgebieten gut bis sehr gut.Zur Erleichterung der umfangreichen, zeitaufwendigen einzugsgebietsbezogenen Datenaufbereitung für das hydrologische Modell HBV-D wurde eine Arbeitsumgebung auf Basis von Programmerweiterungen des Geoinformationssystems ArcView und zusätzlichen Hilfsprogrammen entwickelt. Die Arbeitsumgebung HBV-Params enthält eine graphische Benutzeroberfläche und räumt sowohl erfahrenen Hydrologen als auch hydrologisch geschulten Anwendern, z.B. Studenten der Vertiefungsrichtung Hydrologie, Flexibilität und vollständige Kontrolle bei der Ableitung von Parameterwerten und der Editierung von Parameter- und Steuerdateien ein. Somit ist HBV-D im Gegensatz zu Vorläuferversionen mit rudimentären Arbeitsumgebungen auch außerhalb der Forschung für Lehr- und Übungszwecke einsetzbar.In einem zweiten Schritt werden Gebietsniederschlagssummen, Gebietstemperaturen und simulierte Mittelwerte des Durchflusses (MQ) des Ist-Zustandes mit den Zuständen zweier Klimaszenarien für den Szenarienzeitraum 100 Jahre später (2061-2099) verglichen. Die Klimaszenarien beruhen auf simulierten Zirkulationsmustern je eines Modellaufes zweier Globaler Zirkulationsmodelle (GCM), die mit einem statistischen Regionalisierungsverfahren in Tageswertszenarien (Temperatur, Niederschlag) an Meßstationen in den Untersuchungsgebieten überführt wurden und als Eingangsdaten des hydrologischen Modells verwendet werden.Für die zweite Hälfte des 21. Jahrhunderts weisen beide regionalisierten Klimaszenarien eine Zunahme der Jahresmittel der Gebietstemperatur sowie eine Zunahme der Jahressummen der Gebietsniederschläge auf, die mit einer hohen Variabilität einhergeht. Eine Betrachtung der saisonalen (monatlichen) Änderungsbeträge von Temperatur, Niederschlag und mittlerem Durchfluß zwischen Szenarienzeitraum (2061-2099) und Ist-Zustand ergibt in allen Untersuchungsgebieten eine Temperaturzunahme (höher im Sommer als im Winter) und eine generelle Zunahme der Niederschlagssummen (mit starken Schwankungen zwischen den Einzelmonaten), die bei der hydrologischen Simulation zu deutlich höheren mittleren Durchflüssen von November bis März und leicht erhöhten mittleren Durchflüssen in den restlichen Monaten führen. Die Stärke der Durchflußerhöhung ist nach den individuellen Klimaszenarien unterschiedlich und im Sommer- bzw. Winterhalbjahr gegenläufig ausgeprägt. Hauptursache für die simulierte starke Zunahme der mittleren Durchflüsse im Winterhalbjahr ist die trotz Temperaturerhöhung der Klimaszenarien winterlich niedrige Evapotranspiration, so daß erhöhte Niederschläge direkt in erhöhten Durchfluß transformiert werden können.Der Vergleich der Untersuchungsgebiete zeigt in Einzelmonaten von West nach Ost abnehmende Änderungsbeträge der Niederschlagssummen, die als Hinweis auf die Bedeutung der Kontinentalitätseinflüsse auch unter geänderten klimatischen Bedingungen in Südwestdeutschland aufgefaßt werden könnten.Aus den regionalisierten Klimaszenarien werden Änderungsbeträge für die Modulation gemessener Zeitreihen mittels synthetischer Szenarien abgeleitet, die mit einem geringen Rechenaufwand in hydrologische Modellantworten überführt werden können. Die direkte Ableitung synthetischer Szenarien aus GCM-Ergebniswerten (bodennahe Temperatur und Gesamtniederschlag) an einzelnen GCM-Gitterpunkten erbrachte unbefriedigende Ergebnisse.Ob, in welcher Höhe und zeitlichen Verteilung die in den (synthetischen) Szenarien verwendeten Niederschlags- und Temperaturänderungen eintreten werden, kann nur die Zukunft zeigen. Eine Abschätzung, wie sich die Abflußverhältnisse und insbesondere die mittleren Durchflüsse der Untersuchungsgebiete bei möglichen Änderungen entwickeln würden, kann jedoch heute schon vorgenommen werden. Simulationen auf Szenariogrundlagen sind ein Weg, unbekannte zukünftige Randbedingungen sowie regionale Auswirkungen möglicher Änderungen des Klimasystems ausschnittsweise abzuschätzen und entsprechende Risikominderungsstrategien zu entwickeln. Jegliche Modellierung und Simulation natürlicher Systeme ist jedoch mit beträchtlichen Unsicherheiten verknüpft. Vergleichsweise große Unsicherheiten sind mit der zukünftigen Entwicklung des sozioökonomischen Systems und der Komplexität des Klimasystems verbunden. Weiterhin haben Unsicherheiten der einzelnen Modellbausteine der Modellkette Emissionsszenarien/Gaszyklusmodelle - Globale Zirkulationsmodelle/Regionalisierung - hydrologisches Modell, die eine Kaskade der Unsicherheiten ergeben, neben Datenunsicherheiten bei der Erfassung hydrometeorologischer Meßgrößen einen erheblichen Einfluß auf die Vertrauenswürdigkeit der Simulationsergebnisse, die als ein dargestellter Wert eines Ergebnisbandes zu interpretieren sind.Der Einsatz (1) robuster hydrologischer Modelle, die insbesondere temperaturbeeinflußte Prozesse adäquat beschreiben,(2) die Verwendung langer Zeitreihen (wenigsten 30 Jahre) von Meßwerten und(3) die gleichzeitige vergleichende Betrachtung von Klimaszenarien, die auf unterschiedlichen GCMs beruhen (und wenn möglich, verschiedene Emissionsszenarien berücksichtigen),sollte aus Gründen der wissenschaftlichen Sorgfalt, aber auch der besseren Vergleichbarkeit der Ergebnisse von Regionalstudien im noch jungen Forschungsfeld der Klimafolgenforschung beachtet werden.
Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, ein sequentielles Extraktionsverfahren zur Erfassung unterschiedlich stabiler Anteile der orgnischen Bodensubstanz (OBS) zu entwickeln und zu klären, ob ein Zusammenhang zwischen Löslichkeit und Stabilität besteht. Darüber hinaus sollen der Einfluss von Bewirtschaftungsmaßnahmen auf Menge und Zusammensetzung dieser OBS-Anteile und Zusammenhänge zwischen Fourier Transform Infrarot (FT-IR)-Spektroskopiedaten und der Kationenaustauschkapazität (KAK) der OBS analysiert werden. Für die Untersuchungen wurden Böden der Langzeitfeldexperimente (LFE) in Halle, Bad Lauchstädt und Rotthalmünster beprobt. Zur Erfassung unterschiedlicher OBS-Fraktionen wurden im ersten Schritt die wasserlöslichen OBS-Anteile (OBS(W)-Fraktion) aus den Böden isoliert. Im zweiten Schritt wurden aus den Extraktionsrückständen der Wasserextraktion OBS-Anteile mit einer Natrium (Na)-Pyrophosphatlösung extrahiert (OBS(PY)-Fraktion). Die Stabilität der OBS-Fraktionen wurde anhand von δ13C-Bestimmungen und 14C-Messungen untersucht. Die Charakterisierung der Zusammensetzung der OBS-Fraktionen erfolgte mittels FT-IR Spektroskopie. Generell wird mit der OBS(PY)-Fraktion ein größerer Anteil am organischen Kohlenstoffgehalt der Böden erfasst als mit der OBS(W)-Fraktion. Die δ13C- und 14C-Daten zeigen, dass die OBS(W)-Fraktion höhere Anteile jungen organischen Materials als die OBS(PY)-Fraktion enthält. Das entwickelte sequentielle Extraktionsverfahren ist also prinzipiell geeignet unterschiedlich stabile OBS-Anteile anhand ihrer Löslichkeit zu isolieren. Mittels FT-IR spektroskopischer Untersuchungen wird festgestellt, dass Bewirtschaftungsmaßnahmen, wie die Düngung, sowie Standorteigenschaften die Zusammensetzung der OBS-Fraktionen beeinflussen. Für die OBS(PY)-Fraktion ist dies stärker ausgeprägt als für die OBS(W)-Fraktion. Die KAK der OBS(PY)-Fraktion aus den Böden der LFE in Halle und Bad Lauchstädt ist positiv mit der Absorptionsintensität der C=O-Bande in den FT-IR Spektren dieser OBS-Fraktion korreliert.
Flugzeug- und Shuttle getragene SAR-Systeme werden zur Ableitung des Bodenwassergehalt im Oberboden verwendet. Die Untersuchungsgebiete lagen auf der Insel Rügen, in Oberbayern (Oberpfaffenhofen) und in Oklahoma (Little Washita). Die Regionalierung mit Fernerkundungsdaten wird anhand von geostatistisch aufbereiteten Referenzmessungen aus dem Feld verifiziert. Verschiedene Ableitungsverfahren (Regression, Rückstreuungsmodellierung, Nomogramme und Inversionsmodellierung) werden verglichen und Fehlermargen werden abgeleitet.
Im Landschaftszustand und in der Landschaftsentwicklung kommen funktionale Beziehungen zwischen dem naturbedingten Energie-, Wasser- und Stoffhaushalt einerseits und den Auswirkungen der Landnutzung andererseits zum Ausdruck. Gegenwärtig verändert der globale Anstieg der bodennahen Temperaturen vielerorts den landschaftlichen Energie-, Wasser- und Stoffhaushalt, wobei besonders in Trockengebieten zu erwarten ist, dass dieser Trend in Verbindung mit einer unangepassten Landnutzung das Regenerationsvermögen der Vegetation einschränkt und zur Zerstörung der Bodendecke führt. Für die Mongolei und für benachbarte Gebiete Asiens sind in Szenarien zur globalen Erwärmung hohe Werte des Temperaturanstiegs prognostiziert worden. Eine globale Einschätzung der anthropogen induzierten Bodendegradation hat diese Region als stark oder extrem stark betroffen eingestuft. Vor diesem Hintergrund wurde im Uvs-Nuur-Becken, das im Nordwesten der Mongolei und damit in einer der trockensten Regionen des Landes gelegen ist, untersucht, wie sich der globale Temperaturanstieg auf der lokalen und regionalen Ebene widerspiegelt und wie der Landschaftshaushalt dabei verändert wird. Die Auswirkungen des sommerlichen Witterungsverlaufes auf den Landschaftszustand sind 1997 bis 1999 an einem Transsekt erfasst worden, das sich zwischen dem Kharkhiraa-Gebirge am Westrand des Beckens und dem See Uvs Nuur im Beckeninneren von den Polsterfluren und Matten der alpinen Stufe über die Gebirgswaldsteppe, die Trockensteppe bis zur Halbwüste erstreckt. An neun Messpunkten wurden witterungsklimatische Daten in Verbindung mit Merkmalen der Vegetation, des Bodens und der Bodenfeuchte aufgenommen. Die im Sommer 1998 gewonnenen Messwerte wurden mit Hilfe einer Clusteranalyse gebündelt und verdichtet. Auf dieser Grundlage konnten landschaftliche Zustandsformen inhaltlich gekennzeichnet, zeitlich eingeordnet und durch Zeit-Verhaltens-Modelle (Stacks) abgebildet werden. Aus den Zeit-Verhaltens-Modellen wird ersichtlich, dass man Zustandsformen, in denen die Hitze und die Trockenheit des Sommers 1998 besonders stark zum Ausdruck kommen, an allen Messpunkten beobachten kann, nimmt man die Station auf dem fast 3.000 m hohen Gipfel des Khukh Uul sowie die grundwasserbeeinflusste Station in unmittelbarer Seenähe aus. In ihrer extremen Form sind Trockenperioden jedoch nur im Beckeninneren und am Fuß der Randgebirge, also in der Halbwüste, in der Trockensteppe und in der Wiesensteppe aufgetreten. Im Bergwald sowie im Bereich der alpinen Matten und Polsterfluren fehlen sie. Am stärksten sind die grundwasserfreien Bereiche der Halbwüste von der Hitze und Niederschlagsarmut des Sommers 1998 betroffen. An vier Fünfteln der Tage des Beobachtungszeitraumes herrscht an diesem Messpunkt extreme Trockenheit. Es fällt entweder gar kein Niederschlag oder nur so wenig, dass der seit dem Frühjahr erschöpfte Bodenwasservorrat nicht aufgefüllt wird. Das Verhältnis zwischen Niederschlag und potenzieller Verdunstung liegt hier bei 1:12. In der Halbwüste zeichnet sich eine fortschreitende Desertifikation ab, zumal hier eine nichtangepasste Weidenutzung dominiert, in der Ziegen eine immer größere Rolle spielen. Dies gilt insbesondere für Bereiche in Siedlungsnähe. Örtlich ist auch der Bestand der Trockensteppe gefährdet, die sich an die Halbwüste zum Beckenrand hin anschließt. Hier ist nicht nur die Viehdichte am höchsten, sondern hier werden auch die meisten unbefestigten Fahrwege wild angelegt und die Bodendecke damit zerstört. Dies kann im Endeffekt zu einem Übergreifen von Prozessen der Desertifikation führen. Aus methodischer Sicht zeigt sich, dass die Kennzeichnung landschaftlicher Zustandsformen durch Zeit-Verhaltens-Modelle die Ermittlung der Auswirkungen von Witterung und Klima auf den Landschaftszustand erleichtert, da sie deren Aussage konzentriert. Zur Interpretation der Ergebnisse ist jedoch ein Rückgriff auf die beschreibende Darstellung der Messwerte notwendig. Die im westlichen Uvs-Nuur-Becken und seinen Randgebirgen angewandte Verfahrensweise ermöglicht es, globale Aussagen zur globalen Erwärmung der Kontinente regional oder lokal zu überprüfen und zu untersetzen."
Chemical transformations and hydraulic processes in soil and groundwater often lead to an apparent retention of nitrate in lowland catchments. Models are needed to evaluate the interaction of these processes in space and time. The objectives of this study are i) to develop a specific modelling approach by combining selected modelling tools simulating N-transport and turnover in soils and groundwater of lowland catchments, ii) to study interactions between catchment properties and nitrogen transport. Special attention was paid to potential N-loads to surface waters. The modelling approach combines various submodels for water flow and solute transport in soil and groundwater: The soil-water- and nitrogen-model mRISK-N, the groundwater flow model MODFLOW and the solute transport model RT3D. In order to investigate interactions of N-transport and catchment characteristics, the distribution and availability of reaction partners have to be taken into account. Therefore, a special reaction-module is developed, which simulates various chemical processes in groundwater, such as the degradation of organic matter by oxygen, nitrate, sulphate or pyrite oxidation by oxygen and nitrate. The model approach is applied to different simulation, focussing on specific submodels. All simulation studies are based on field data from the Schaugraben catchment, a pleistocene catchment of approximately 25 km², close to Osterburg(Altmark) in the North of Saxony-Anhalt. The following modelling studies have been carried out: i) evaluation of the soil-water- and nitrogen-model based on lysimeter data, ii) modelling of a field scale tracer experiment on nitrate transport and turnover in the groundwater as a first application of the reaction module, iii) evaluation of interactions between hydraulic and chemical aquifer properties in a two-dimensional groundwater transect, iv) modelling of distributed groundwater recharge and soil nitrogen leaching in the study area, to be used as input data for subsequent groundwater simulations, v) study of groundwater nitrate distribution and nitrate breakthrough to the surface water system in the Schaugraben catchment area and a subcatchment, using three-dimensional modelling of reactive groundwater transport. The various model applications prove the model to be capable of simulating interactions between transport, turnover and hydraulic and chemical catchment properties. The distribution of nitrate in the sediment and the resulting loads to surface waters are strongly affected by the amount of reactive substances and by the residence time within the aquifer. In the Schaugraben catchment simulations, it is found that a period of 70 years is needed to raise the average seepage concentrations of nitrate to a level corresponding to the given input situation, if no reactions are considered. Under reactive transport conditions, nitrate concentrations are reduced effectively. Simulation results show that groundwater exfiltration does not contribute considerably to the nitrate pollution of surface waters, as most nitrate entering soils and groundwater is lost by denitrification. Additional sources, such as direct inputs or tile drains have to be taken into account to explain surface water loads. The prognostic value of the models for the study site is limited by uncertainties of input data and estimation of model parameters. Nevertheless, the modelling approach is a useful aid for the identification of source and sink areas of nitrate pollution as well as the investigation of system response to management measures or landuse changes with scenario simulations. The modelling approach assists in the interpretation of observed data, as it allows to integrate local observations into a spatial and temporal framework.
Studies of the role of disturbance in vegetation or ecosystems showed that disturbances are an essential and intrinsic element of ecosystems that contribute substantially to ecosystem health, to structural diversity of ecosystems and to nutrient cycling at the local as well as global level. Fire as a grassland, bush or forest fire is a special disturbance agent, since it is caused by biotic as well abiotic environmental factors. Fire affects biogeochemical cycles and plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry by releasing climate-sensitive trace gases and aerosols, and thus in the global carbon cycle by releasing approximately 3.9 Gt C p.a. through biomass burning. A combined model to describe effects and feedbacks between fire and vegetation became relevant as changes in fire regimes due to land use and land management were observed and the global dimension of biomass burnt as an important carbon flux to the atmosphere, its influence on atmospheric chemistry and climate as well as vegetation dynamics were emphasized. The existing modelling approaches would not allow these investigations. As a consequence, an optimal set of variables that best describes fire occurrence, fire spread and its effects in ecosystems had to be defined, which can simulate observed fire regimes and help to analyse interactions between fire and vegetation dynamics as well as to allude to the reasons behind changing fire regimes. Especially, dynamic links between vegetation, climate and fire processes are required to analyse dynamic feedbacks and effects of changes of single environmental factors. This led us to the point, where new fire models had to be developed that would allow the investigations, mentioned above, and could help to improve our understanding of the role of fire in global ecology. In conclusion of the thesis, one can state that moisture conditions, its persistence over time and fuel load are the important components that describe global fire pattern. If time series of a particular region are to be reproduced, specific ignition sources, fire-critical climate conditions and vegetation composition become additional determinants. Vegetation composition changes the level of fire occurrence and spread, but has limited impact on the inter-annual variability of fire. The importance to consider the full range of major fire processes and links to vegetation dynamics become apparent under climate change conditions. Increases in climate-dependent length of fire season does not automatically imply increases in biomass burnt, it can be buffered or accelerated by changes in vegetation productivity. Changes in vegetation composition as well as enhanced vegetation productivity can intensify changes in fire and lead to even more fire-related emissions. --- Anmerkung: Die Autorin ist Trägerin des von der Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Potsdam vergebenen Michelson-Preises für die beste Promotion des Jahres 2002/2003.
Semi-arid areas are, due to their climatic setting, characterized by small water resources. An increasing water demand as a consequence of population growth and economic development as well as a decreasing water availability in the course of possible climate change may aggravate water scarcity in future, which often exists already for present-day conditions in these areas. Understanding the mechanisms and feedbacks of complex natural and human systems, together with the quantitative assessment of future changes in volume, timing and quality of water resources are a prerequisite for the development of sustainable measures of water management to enhance the adaptive capacity of these regions. For this task, dynamic integrated models, containing a hydrological model as one component, are indispensable tools. The main objective of this study is to develop a hydrological model for the quantification of water availability in view of environmental change over a large geographic domain of semi-arid environments. The study area is the Federal State of Ceará (150 000 km2) in the semi-arid north-east of Brazil. Mean annual precipitation in this area is 850 mm, falling in a rainy season with duration of about five months. Being mainly characterized by crystalline bedrock and shallow soils, surface water provides the largest part of the water supply. The area has recurrently been affected by droughts which caused serious economic losses and social impacts like migration from the rural regions. The hydrological model Wasa (Model of Water Availability in Semi-Arid Environments) developed in this study is a deterministic, spatially distributed model being composed of conceptual, process-based approaches. Water availability (river discharge, storage volumes in reservoirs, soil moisture) is determined with daily resolution. Sub-basins, grid cells or administrative units (municipalities) can be chosen as spatial target units. The administrative units enable the coupling of Wasa in the framework of an integrated model which contains modules that do not work on the basis of natural spatial units. The target units mentioned above are disaggregated in Wasa into smaller modelling units within a new multi-scale, hierarchical approach. The landscape units defined in this scheme capture in particular the effect of structured variability of terrain, soil and vegetation characteristics along toposequences on soil moisture and runoff generation. Lateral hydrological processes at the hillslope scale, as reinfiltration of surface runoff, being of particular importance in semi-arid environments, can thus be represented also within the large-scale model in a simplified form. Depending on the resolution of available data, small-scale variability is not represented explicitly with geographic reference in Wasa, but by the distribution of sub-scale units and by statistical transition frequencies for lateral fluxes between these units. Further model components of Wasa which respect specific features of semi-arid hydrology are: (1) A two-layer model for evapotranspiration comprises energy transfer at the soil surface (including soil evaporation), which is of importance in view of the mainly sparse vegetation cover. Additionally, vegetation parameters are differentiated in space and time in dependence on the occurrence of the rainy season. (2) The infiltration module represents in particular infiltration-excess surface runoff as the dominant runoff component. (3) For the aggregate description of the water balance of reservoirs that cannot be represented explicitly in the model, a storage approach respecting different reservoirs size classes and their interaction via the river network is applied. (4) A model for the quantification of water withdrawal by water use in different sectors is coupled to Wasa. (5) A cascade model for the temporal disaggregation of precipitation time series, adapted to the specific characteristics of tropical convective rainfall, is applied for the generating rainfall time series of higher temporal resolution. All model parameters of Wasa can be derived from physiographic information of the study area. Thus, model calibration is primarily not required. Model applications of Wasa for historical time series generally results in a good model performance when comparing the simulation results of river discharge and reservoir storage volumes with observed data for river basins of various sizes. The mean water balance as well as the high interannual and intra-annual variability is reasonably represented by the model. Limitations of the modelling concept are most markedly seen for sub-basins with a runoff component from deep groundwater bodies of which the dynamics cannot be satisfactorily represented without calibration. Further results of model applications are: (1) Lateral processes of redistribution of runoff and soil moisture at the hillslope scale, in particular reinfiltration of surface runoff, lead to markedly smaller discharge volumes at the basin scale than the simple sum of runoff of the individual sub-areas. Thus, these processes are to be captured also in large-scale models. The different relevance of these processes for different conditions is demonstrated by a larger percentage decrease of discharge volumes in dry as compared to wet years. (2) Precipitation characteristics have a major impact on the hydrological response of semi-arid environments. In particular, underestimated rainfall intensities in the rainfall input due to the rough temporal resolution of the model and due to interpolation effects and, consequently, underestimated runoff volumes have to be compensated in the model. A scaling factor in the infiltration module or the use of disaggregated hourly rainfall data show good results in this respect. The simulation results of Wasa are characterized by large uncertainties. These are, on the one hand, due to uncertainties of the model structure to adequately represent the relevant hydrological processes. On the other hand, they are due to uncertainties of input data and parameters particularly in view of the low data availability. Of major importance is: (1) The uncertainty of rainfall data with regard to their spatial and temporal pattern has, due to the strong non-linear hydrological response, a large impact on the simulation results. (2) The uncertainty of soil parameters is in general of larger importance on model uncertainty than uncertainty of vegetation or topographic parameters. (3) The effect of uncertainty of individual model components or parameters is usually different for years with rainfall volumes being above or below the average, because individual hydrological processes are of different relevance in both cases. Thus, the uncertainty of individual model components or parameters is of different importance for the uncertainty of scenario simulations with increasing or decreasing precipitation trends. (4) The most important factor of uncertainty for scenarios of water availability in the study area is the uncertainty in the results of global climate models on which the regional climate scenarios are based. Both a marked increase or a decrease in precipitation can be assumed for the given data. Results of model simulations for climate scenarios until the year 2050 show that a possible future change in precipitation volumes causes a larger percentage change in runoff volumes by a factor of two to three. In the case of a decreasing precipitation trend, the efficiency of new reservoirs for securing water availability tends to decrease in the study area because of the interaction of the large number of reservoirs in retaining the overall decreasing runoff volumes.
Die Landschaften Mitteleuropas sind das Resultat einer langwierigen Geschichte menschlicher Landnutzung mit ihren unterschiedlichen, z.T. konkurrierenden Nutzungsansprüchen. Durch eine überwiegend intensive Beanspruchung haben die direkten und indirekten Auswirkungen der Landnutzung in vielen Fällen zu Umweltproblemen geführt. Die Disziplin der Landschaftsökologie hat es sich zur Aufgabe gemacht, Konzepte für eine nachhaltige Nutzung der Landschaft zu entwickeln. Eine wichtige Fragestellung stellt dabei die Abschätzung der möglichen Folgen von Landnutzungsänderungen dar. Für die Analyse der relevanten Prozesse in der Landschaft werden häufig mathematische Modelle eingesetzt, welche es erlauben die Landschaft unter aktuellen Verhältnissen oder hinsichtlich veränderter Rahmenbedingungen zu untersuchen. Die hypothetische Änderung der Landnutzung, die als Landnutzungsszenario bezeichnet wird, verkörpert eine wesentliche Modifikation der Rahmenbedingungen, weil Landnutzung maßgeblich Einfluss auf die natürlichen Prozesse der Landschaft nimmt. Während die Antriebskräfte einer solchen Änderung überwiegend von sozio-ökonomischen und politischen Entscheidungen gesteuert werden, orientiert sich die exakte Verortung der Landnutzungsänderungen an den naturräumlichen Bedingungen und folgt z.T. erkennbaren Regeln. Anhand dieser Vorgaben ist es möglich, räumlich explizite Landnutzungsszenarien zu entwickeln, die als Eingangsdaten für die Modellierung verschiedener landschaftsökologischer Fragestellungen wie z.B. für die Untersuchung des Einflusses der Landnutzung auf den Wasserhaushalt, die Erosionsgefahr oder die Habitatqualität dienen können. Im Rahmen dieser Dissertation wurde das rasterbasierte deterministische Allokationsmodell luck (Land Use Change Scenario Kit) für die explizite Verortung der Landnutzungsänderungen entwickelt. Es basiert auf den in der Landschaftsökologie üblichen räumlichen Daten wie Landnutzung, Boden sowie Topographie und richtet sich bei der Szenarienableitung nach den Leitbildern der Landschaftsplanung. Das Modell fußt auf der Hypothese, dass das Landnutzungsmuster als Funktion seiner landschaftsökologischen Faktoren beschrieben werden kann. Das Veränderungspotenzial einer Landnutzungseinheit resultiert im Modell aus einer Kombination der Bewertung der relativen Eignung des Standortes für die jeweilige Landnutzung und der Berücksichtigung von Standorteigenschaften der umliegenden Nachbarn. Die Durchführung der Landnutzungsänderung im Modell ist iterativ angelegt, um den graduellen Prozess des Landschaftswandels nachvollziehen zu können. Als Fallbeispiel für die Anwendung solcher räumlich expliziten Landnutzungsszenarien dient die Fragestellung, inwieweit Landnutzungsänderungen die Hochwasserentstehung beeinflussen. Um den Einfluss auf die Hochwasserentstehung für jede der Landnutzungskategorien – bebaute, landwirtschaftlich genutzte und naturnahe Flächen – abschätzen zu können, wird im Landnutzungsmodell luck exemplarisch für jede Kategorie ein Teilmodell für die Veränderung von Landnutzung angeboten: 1) Ausdehnung der Siedlungsfläche: Dieses Teilmodell fußt auf der Annahme, dass sich Siedlungen nur in direkter Nachbarschaft bereits bestehender Bebauung und bevorzugt entlang von Entwicklungsachsen ausbreiten. Steile Hangneigungen stellen für potenzielle Standorte ein Hemmnis bei der Ausbreitung dar. 2) Stilllegung von Grenzertragsackerflächen: Gemäß der Hypothese, dass sich die Stilllegung von Ackerflächen an der potenziellen Ertragsleistung der Standorte orientiert, werden in diesem Teilmodell alle Ackerstandorte dahingehend bewertet und die Flächen mit der geringsten Leistungsfähigkeit stillgelegt. Bei homogenen Gebietseigenschaften werden die Stilllegungsflächen zufällig auf die Ackerfläche verteilt. 3) Etablierung von Schutzgebieten in Ufer- und Auenbereichen: Ausgehend von der These, dass sich entlang von Flüssen sensible Flächen befinden, deren Schutz positive Folgen für das Leistungsvermögen der Landschaft haben kann, werden in diesem Teilmodell schützenswerte Ufer- und Auenbereiche auf derzeit landwirtschaftlich genutzten Flächen ausgewiesen. Die Größe der Schutzgebietsfläche orientiert sich an der Morphologie der umgebenden Landschaft. Die drei Teilmodelle wurden hinsichtlich der implizierten Hypothesen mit vielen unterschiedlichen Ansätzen validiert. Das Resultat dieser intensiven Analyse zeigt für jedes Teilmodell eine zufriedenstellende Tauglichkeit. Die Modellierung der Landnutzungsänderungen wurden in drei mesoskaligen Flusseinzugsgebieten mit einer Fläche zwischen 100 und 500 km² durchgeführt, die sich markant in ihrer Landnutzung unterscheiden. Besonderer Wert wurde bei der Gebietsauswahl darauf gelegt, dass eines der Gebiete intensiv landwirtschaftlich genutzt wird, eines dicht besiedelt und eines vorwiegend bewaldet ist. Im Hinblick auf ihre Relevanz für die vorliegende Fragestellung wurden aus bestehenden Landnutzungstrends die Szenarien für (1) die prognostizierte Siedlungsfläche für das Jahr 2010, (2) die möglichen Konsequenzen des EU-weiten Beschlusses der Agenda 2000 und (3) die Novelle des Bundesnaturschutzgesetzes aus dem Jahr 2001 abgeleitet. Jedes Szenario wurde mit Hilfe des Modells auf die drei Untersuchungsgebiete angewendet. Dabei wurden für die Siedlungsausdehnung in allen drei Gebieten realistische Landnutzungsmuster generiert. Einschränkungen ergeben sich bei der Suche nach Grenzertragsstilllegungsflächen. Hier hat unter homogenen Gebietseigenschaften die zufällige Verteilung von Flächen für die Stilllegung zu einem unrealistischen Ergebnis geführt. Die Güte der Schutzgebietsausweisung ist maßgeblich an die aktuelle Landnutzung der Aue und die Morphologie des Geländes gebunden. Die besten Ergebnisse werden erzielt, wenn die Flächen in den Ufer- und Auenbereichen mehrheitlich unter derzeitiger Ackernutzung stehen und der Flusslauf sich in das Relief eingetieft hat. Exemplarisch werden für jeden Landnutzungstrend die hydrologischen Auswirkungen anhand eines historischen Hochwassers beschrieben, aus denen jedoch keine pauschale Aussage zum Einfluss der Landnutzung abgeleitet werden kann. Die Studie demonstriert die Bedeutung des Landnutzungsmusters für die natürlichen Prozesse in der Landschaft und unterstreicht die Notwendigkeit einer räumlich expliziten Modellierung für landschaftsökologische Fragestellungen in der Mesoskala.
The length of the vegetation period (VP) plays a central role for the interannual variation of carbon fixation of terrestrial ecosystems. Observational data analysis has indicated that the length of the VP has increased in the last decades in the northern latitudes mainly due to an advancement of bud burst (BB). This phenomenon has been widely discussed in the context of Global Warming because phenology is correlated to temperatures. Analyzing the patterns of spring phenology over the last century in Southern Germany provided two main findings: - The strong advancement of spring phases especially in the decade before 1999 is not a singular event in the course of the 20th century. Similar trends were also observed in earlier decades. Distinct periods of varying trend behavior for important spring phases could be distinguished. - Marked differences in trend behavior between the early and late spring phases were detected. Early spring phases changed as regards the magnitude of their negative trends from strong negative trends between 1931 and 1948 to moderate negative trends between 1948 and 1984 and back to strong negative trends between 1984 and 1999. Late spring phases showed a different behavior. Negative trends between 1931 and 1948 are followed by marked positive trends between 1948 and 1984 and then strong negative trends between 1984 and 1999. This marked difference in trend development between early and late spring phases was also found all over Germany for the two periods 1951 to 1984 and 1984 to 1999. The dominating influence of temperature on spring phenology and its modifying effect on autumn phenology was confirmed in this thesis. However, - temperature functions determining spring phenology were not significantly correlated with a global annual CO2 signal which was taken as a proxy for a Global Warming pattern. - an index for large scale regional circulation patterns (NAO index) could only to a small part explain the observed phenological variability in spring. The observed different trend behavior of early and late spring phases is explained by the differing behavior of mean March and April temperatures. Mean March temperatures have increased on average over the 20th century accompanied by an increasing variation in the last 50 years. April temperatures, however, decreased between the end of the 1940s and the mid-1980s, followed by a marked warming after the mid-1980s. It can be concluded that the advancement of spring phenology in recent decades are part of multi-decadal fluctuations over the 20th century that vary with the species and the relevant seasonal temperatures. Because of these fluctuations a correlation with an observed Global Warming signal could not be found. On average all investigated spring phases advanced between 5 and 20 days between 1951 and 1999 for all Natural Regions in Germany. A marked difference be! tween late and early spring phases is due to the above mentioned differing behavior before and after the mid-1980s. Leaf coloring (LC) was delayed between 1951 and 1984 for all tree species. However, after 1984 LC was advanced. Length of the VP increased between 1951 and 1999 for all considered tree species by an average of ten days throughout Germany. It is predominately the change in spring phases which contributes to a change in the potentially absorbed radiation. Additionally, it is the late spring species that are relatively more favored by an advanced BB because they can additionally exploit longer days and higher temperatures per day advancement. To assess the relative change in potentially absorbed radiation among species, changes in both spring and autumn phenology have to be considered as well as where these changes are located in the year. For the detection of the marked difference between early and late spring phenology a new time series construction method was developed. This method allowed the derivation of reliable time series that spanned over 100 years and the construction of locally combined time series increasing the available data for model development. Apart from analyzed protocolling errors, microclimatic site influences, genetic variation and the observers were identified as sources of uncertainty of phenological observational data. It was concluded that 99% of all phenological observations at a certain site will vary within approximately 24 days around the parametric mean. This supports to the proposed 30-day rule to detect outliers. New phenology models that predict local BB from daily temperature time series were developed. These models were based on simple interactions between inhibitory and promotory agents that are assumed to control the developmental status of a plant. Apart from the fact that, in general, the new models fitted and predicted the observations better than classical models, the main modeling results were: - The bias of the classical models, i.e. overestimation of early observations and underestimation of late observations, could be reduced but not completely removed. - The different favored model structures for each species indicated that for the late spring phases photoperiod played a more dominant role than for early spring phases. - Chilling only plays a subordinate role for spring BB compared to temperatures directly preceding BB.
Mit der vorliegenden Arbeit werden exemplarisch Chancen und Grenzen der Integration von Umwelt- und Naturschutz in Verfahren der ackerbaulichen Landnutzung aufgezeigt. Die Umsetzung von Zielen des Umwelt- und Naturschutzes in Verfahren der Landnutzung ist mit verschiedenen Schwierigkeiten verbunden. Diese liegen zum einen in der Konkretisierung der Ziele, um diese umsetzen zu können, zum anderen in vielfach unzulänglichem Wissen über den Zusammenhang zwischen unterschiedlichen Formen der Landnutzung und insbesondere den biotischen Naturschutzzielen. Zunächst wird die Problematik der Zielfestlegung und Konkretisierung erörtert. Das Umweltqualitätszielkonzept von Fürst et al. (1992) stellt einen Versuch dar, Ziele des Umwelt- und Naturschutzes zu konkretisieren. Dieses Konzept haben Heidt et al. (1997) auf einen Landschaftsausschnitt von ca. 6000 ha im Biosphärenreservat Schorfheide-Chorin im Nordosten Brandenburgs angewendet. Eine Auswahl der von Heidt et al. (1997) formulierten Umweltqualitätsziele bildet die Basis dieser Arbeit. Für die ausgewählten Umweltqualitätsziele wurden wesentliche Einflussfaktoren der Landnutzung identifiziert und ein Bewertungssystem entwickelt, mit dem die Auswirkungen von landwirtschaftlichen Anbauverfahren auf diese Umweltqualitätsziele abgebildet werden können. Die praktizierte Landnutzung von 20 Betrieben im Biosphärenreservat Schorfheide-Chorin wurde von 1994 bis 1997 hinsichtlich ihrer Auswirkungen auf die Umweltqualitätsziele analysiert. Die Analyse ergab ein sehr differenziertes Bild, das zum Teil Unterschiede in der Auswirkung auf die Umweltqualitätsziele für den Anbau einzelner Kulturen oder für bestimmte Betriebstypen zeigte. Es zeigte sich aber auch, dass es bei der Gestaltung des Anbaus einzelner Kulturarten große Unterschiede gab, die für Umweltqualitätsziele Bedeutung haben. Neben der Analyse der Landnutzung im Biosphärenreservat Schorfheide-Chorin wurde ein System entwickelt, mit dem die modellhafte Abbildung von Verfahren der Landnutzung möglich ist. Die Modellverfahren wurden in eine umfangreiche Datenbank eingebunden. Sie wurden mit Hilfe eines Fuzzy- Regelsystems hinsichtlich ihrer Auswirkungen auf die Umweltqualitätsziele bewertet. Die systematisch bewerteten Verfahren wurden in ein Betriebsmodell integriert, womit eine weitergehende Analyse der Zielbeziehungen und die Berechnung von Szenarien mit unterschiedlichen Rahmenbedingungen ermöglicht wurde. Die Analyse der Beziehung verschiedener Ziele zueinander (Zieldivergenz, Zielkonvergenz) zeigte, dass sich mit der Verfolgung vieler Umweltqualitätsziele auch positive Effekte für andere Umweltqualitätsziele ergaben. Teilweise konnte allerdings auch eine Zieldivergenz festgestellt werden, die auf mögliche Zielkonflikte hinweist. Bei der Analyse der Szenarienergebnisse zeigte sich, dass die vorgeschlagenen Veränderungen von Rahmenbedingungen vielfach eine Verschlechterung für verschiedene Umweltqualitätsziele mit sich bringen. Eine Ursache dafür liegt darin, dass bei der Definition der Szenarien die Bedeutung der Stilllegungen unterschätzt wurde.
Seit 1990 waren mehrere der großen Flussgebiete Mitteleuropas wiederholt von extremen Hochwassern betroffen. Da sowohl die Landoberfläche als auch die Flusssysteme weiter Teile Mitteleuropas in der Vergangenheit weitreichenden Eingriffen ausgesetzt gewesen sind, wird bei der Suche nach den Ursachen für diese Häufung von Extremereignissen auch die Frage nach der Verantwortung des Menschen hierfür diskutiert. Gewässerausbau, Flächenversiegelung, intensive landwirtschaftliche Bodenbearbeitung, Flurbereinigung und Waldschäden sind nur einige Beispiele und Folgen der anthropogenen Eingriffe in die Landschaft. Aufgrund der Vielfalt der beteiligten Prozesse und deren Wechselwirkungen gibt es allerdings bislang nur Schätzungen darüber, wie sehr sich die Hochwassersituation hierdurch verändert hat. Vorrangiges Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, mit Hilfe eines hydrologischen Modells systematisch darzustellen, in welcher Weise, in welcher Größenordnung und unter welchen Umständen die Art der Landnutzung auf die Hochwasserentstehung Einfluss nimmt. Dies wird anhand exemplarischer Modellanwendungen in der hydrologischen Mesoskala untersucht. Zu diesem Zweck wurde das deterministische und flächendifferenzierte hydrologische Modell wasim-eth ausgewählt, das sich durch eine ausgewogene Mischung aus physikalisch begründeten und konzeptionellen Ansätzen auszeichnet. Das Modell wurde im Rahmen dieser Arbeit um verschiedene Aspekte erweitert, die für die Charakterisierung des Einflusses der Landnutzung auf die Hochwasserentstehung wichtig sind: (1) Bevorzugtes Fließen in Makroporen wird durch eine Zweiteilung des Bodens in Makroporen und Bodenmatrix dargestellt, die schnelle Infiltration und Perkolation jenseits der hydraulischen Leitfähigkeit der Bodenmatrix ermöglicht. (2) Verschlämmung äußert sich im Modell abhängig von Niederschlagsintensität und Vegetationsbedeckungsgrad als Verschlechterung der Infiltrationsbedingungen an der Bodenoberfläche. (3) Das heterogene Erscheinungsbild bebauter Flächen mit einer Mischung aus versiegelten Bereichen und Freiflächen wird berücksichtigt, indem jede Teilfläche je nach Versiegelungsgrad in einen unversiegelten Bereich und einen versiegelten Bereich mit Anschluss an die Kanalisation aufgeteilt wird. (4) Dezentraler Rückhalt von Niederschlagswasser kann sowohl für natürliche Mulden als auch für gezielt angelegte Versickerungsmulden mit definierten Infiltrationsbedingungen simuliert werden. Das erweiterte Modell wird exemplarisch auf drei mesoskalige Teileinzugsgebiete des Rheins angewandt. Diese drei Gebiete mit einer Fläche von zwischen 100 und 500 km² wurden im Hinblick darauf ausgewählt, dass jeweils eine der drei Hauptlandnutzungskategorien Bebauung, landwirtschaftliche Nutzung oder Wald dominiert. Für die drei Untersuchungsgebiete sind räumlich explizite Landnutzungs- und Landbedeckungsszenarien entworfen worden, deren Einfluss auf die Hochwasserentstehung mit Hilfe des erweiterten hydrologischen Modells simuliert wird. Im Einzelnen werden die Auswirkungen von Verstädterung, Maßnahmen zur Niederschlagsversickerung in Siedlungsgebieten, Stilllegung agrarisch genutzter Flächen, veränderter landwirtschaftlicher Bodenbearbeitung, Aufforstung sowie von Sturmschäden in Wäldern untersucht. Diese Eingriffe beeinflussen die Interzeption von Niederschlag, dessen Infiltration, die oberflächennahen unterirdischen Fließprozesse sowie, zum Beispiel im Fall der Kanalisation, auch die Abflusskonzentration. Die hydrologischen Simulationen demonstrieren, dass die Versiegelung einer Fläche den massivsten Eingriff in die natürlichen Verhältnisse darstellt und deshalb die stärksten (negativen) Veränderungen der Hochwassersituation hervorbringt. Außerdem wird deutlich, dass eine bloße Änderung des Interzeptionsvermögens zu keinen wesentlichen Veränderungen führt, da die Speicherkapazität der Pflanzenoberflächen im Verhältnis zum Volumen hochwasserauslösender Niederschläge eher klein ist. Stärkere Veränderungen ergeben sich hingegen aus einer Änderung der Infiltrationsbedingungen. Die Grenzen der entwickelten Methodik zeigen sich am deutlichsten bei der Simulation veränderter landwirtschaftlicher Bewirtschaftungsmethoden, deren mathematische Beschreibung und zahlenmäßige Charakterisierung aufgrund der Komplexität der beteiligten Prozesse mit großen Unsicherheiten behaftet ist. Die Modellierungsergebnisse belegen darüber hinaus, dass pauschale Aussagen zum Einfluss der Landnutzung auf die Hochwasserentstehung aufgrund der entscheidenden Bedeutung der klimatischen und physiographischen Randbedingungen unzulässig sind. Zu den klimatischen Randbedingungen zählen sowohl Niederschlagsintensität und -dauer als auch die Feuchtebedingungen vor einem hochwasserauslösenden Niederschlag. Die physiographischen Randbedingungen sind von der geomorphologischen und geologischen Ausstattung des Gebiets vorgegeben. Weiterhin muss der räumliche und zeitliche Maßstab, über den Aussagen getroffen werden, klar definiert sein, da sich mit steigender Einzugsgebietsgröße die relative Bedeutung sowohl der verschiedenen Niederschlagstypen als auch der physiographischen Eigenschaften verschiebt. Dies wird in der vorliegenden Arbeit im Gegensatz zu vielen anderen Untersuchungen konsequent berücksichtigt. In Abhängigkeit von Randbedingungen und räumlichen Maßstab sind aufgrund der gewonnen Erkenntnisse folgende Aussagen zum Einfluss von Landnutzungsänderungen auf die Hochwasserentstehung möglich: (1) Für intensive konvektive Niederschlagsereignisse mit tendenziell geringer Vorfeuchte ist der Einfluss der Landnutzung größer als für langanhaltende advektive Niederschläge geringer Intensität, da im ersten Fall veränderte Infiltrationsbedingungen stärker zum Tragen kommen als bei kleinen Niederschlagsintensitäten. (2) In kleinen Einzugsgebieten, wo kleinräumige Konvektivzellen zu Hochwassern führen können, ist der Einfluss der Landnutzung dementsprechend größer als in großen Flussgebieten wie dem Rheingebiet, wo vor allem langanhaltende advektive Ereignisse (unter Umständen verbunden mit Schneeschmelze) relevant sind. (3) In Gebieten mit guten Speichereigenschaften wie mächtigen, gut durchlässigen Böden und gut durchlässigem Gesteinsuntergrund ist der Einfluss der Landnutzung größer als in Gebieten mit geringmächtigen Böden und geringdurchlässigem Festgestein. Dies ist darin begründet, dass in Gebieten mit guten Speichereigenschaften bei einer Verschlechterung der Infiltrationsbedingungen mehr Speicherraum für Niederschlag verloren geht als in anderen Gebieten.