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Ice-rich yedoma-dominated landscapes store considerable amounts of organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) and are vulnerable to degradation under climate warming. We investigate the C and N pools in two thermokarst-affected yedoma landscapes - on Sobo-Sise Island and on Bykovsky Peninsula in the north of eastern Siberia. Soil cores up to 3m depth were collected along geomorphic gradients and analysed for organic C and N contents. A high vertical sampling density in the profiles allowed the calculation of C and N stocks for short soil column intervals and enhanced understanding of within-core parameter variability. Profile-level C and N stocks were scaled to the landscape level based on landform classifications from 5 m resolution, multispectral RapidEye satellite imagery. Mean landscape C and N storage in the first metre of soil for Sobo-Sise Island is estimated to be 20.2 kg C m(-2) and 1.8 kg N m(-2) and for Bykovsky Peninsula 25.9 kg C m(-2) and 2.2 kg N m(-2). Radiocarbon dating demonstrates the Holocene age of thermokarst basin deposits but also suggests the presence of thick Holoceneage cover layers which can reach up to 2 m on top of intact yedoma landforms. Reconstructed sedimentation rates of 0.10-0.57 mm yr(-1) suggest sustained mineral soil accumulation across all investigated landforms. Both yedoma and thermokarst landforms are characterized by limited accumulation of organic soil layers (peat). We further estimate that an active layer deepening of about 100 cm will increase organic C availability in a seasonally thawed state in the two study areas by similar to 5.8 Tg (13.2 kg C m(-2)). Our study demonstrates the importance of increasing the number of C and N storage inventories in ice-rich yedoma and thermokarst environments in order to account for high variability of permafrost and thermokarst environments in pan-permafrost soil C and N pool estimates.
Due to a lack of well-preserved terrestrial climate archives, paleoclimate studies are sparse in southwestern Africa. Because there are no perennial lacustrine systems in this region, this study relies on a saline pan as an archive for climate information in the western Kalahari (Namibia). Molecular biological and biogeochemical analyses were combined to examine the response of indigenous microbial communities to modern and past climate-induced environmental conditions. The 16S rRNA gene high-throughput sequencing was applied to sediment samples from Omongwa pan to characterize the modern microbial diversity. Highest diversity of microorganisms, dominated by the extreme halophilic archaeon Halobacteria and by the bacterial phylum Gemmatimonadetes, was detected in the near-surface sediments of Omongwa pan. In deeper sections abundance and diversity significantly decreases and Bacillus, known to form spores, become dominant. Lipid biomarkers for living and past microbial life were analyzed to track the influence of climate variation on the abundance of microbial communities from the Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene time. Since water is an inevitable requirement for microbial life, in this dry region the abundance of past microbial biomarkers was evaluated to conclude on periods of increased paleoprecipitation in the past. The data point to a period of increased humidity in the western Kalahari during the Last Glacial to Holocene transition indicating a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone during this period. Comparison with results from a southwestern Kalahari pan suggests complex displacements of the regional atmospheric systems since the Last Glacial Maximum.
The fall into the Oligocene icehouse is marked by a steady decline in global temperature with punctuated cooling at the Eocene-Oligocene transition, both of which are well documented in the marine realm. However, the chronology and mechanisms of cooling on land remain unclear. Here, we use clumped isotope thermometry on northeastern Tibetan continental carbonates to reconstruct a detailed Paleogene surface temperature record for the Asian continental interior, and correlate this to an enhanced pollen data set. Our results show two successive dramatic (>9 degrees C) temperature drops, at 37 Ma and at 33.5 Ma. These large-magnitude decreases in continental temperatures can only be explained by a combination of both regional cooling and shifts of the rainy season to cooler months, which we interpret to reflect a decline of monsoonal intensity. Our results suggest that the response of Asian surface temperatures and monsoonal rainfall to the steady decline of atmospheric CO2 and global temperature through the late Eocene was nonlinear and occurred in two steps separated by a period of climatic instability. Our results support the onset of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current coeval to the Oligocene isotope event 1 (Oi-1) glaciation at 33.5 Ma, reshaping the distribution of surface heat worldwide; however, the origin of the 37 Ma cooling event remains less clear.
With the growing size and use of night light time series from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite Day/Night Band (DNB), it is important to understand the stability of the dataset. All satellites observe differences in pixel values during repeat observations. In the case of night light data, these changes can be due to both environmental effects and changes in light emission. Here we examine the stability of individual locations of particular large scale light sources (e.g., airports and prisons) in the monthly composites of DNB data from April 2012 to September 2017. The radiances for individual pixels of most large light emitters are approximately normally distributed, with a standard deviation of typically 15-20% of the mean. Greenhouses and flares, however, are not stable sources. We observe geospatial autocorrelation in the monthly variations for nearby sites, while the correlation for sites separated by large distances is small. This suggests that local factors contribute most to the variation in the pixel radiances and furthermore that averaging radiances over large areas will reduce the total variation. A better understanding of the causes of temporal variation would improve the sensitivity of DNB to lighting changes.
The Seismic Hazard Inferred from Tectonics based on the Global Strain Rate Map (SHIFT_GSRM) earthquake forecast was designed to provide high-resolution estimates of global shallow seismicity to be used in seismic hazard assessment. This model combines geodetic strain rates with global earthquake parameters to characterize long-term rates of seismic moment and earthquake activity. Although SHIFT_GSRM properly computes seismicity rates in seismically active continental regions, it underestimates earthquake rates in subduction zones by an average factor of approximately 3. We present a complementary method to SHIFT_GSRM to more accurately forecast earthquake rates in 37 subduction segments, based on the conservation of moment principle and the use of regional interface seismicity parameters, such as subduction dip angles, corner magnitudes, and coupled seismogenic thicknesses. In seven progressive steps, we find that SHIFT_GSRM earthquake-rate underpredictions are mainly due to the utilization of a global probability function of seismic moment release that poorly captures the great variability among subduction megathrust interfaces. Retrospective test results show that the forecast is consistent with the observations during the 1 January 1977 to 31 December 2014 period. Moreover, successful pseudoprospective evaluations for the 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2018 period demonstrate the power of the regionalized earthquake model to properly estimate subduction-zone seismicity.
Convergence between the Indian and Asian plates has reshaped large parts of Asia, changing regional climate and biodiversity, yet geodynamic models fundamentally diverge on how convergence was accommodated since the India-Asia collision. Here we report palaeomagnetic data from the Burma Terrane, which is at the eastern edge of the collision zone and is famous for its Cretaceous amber biota, to better determine the evolution of the India-Asia collision. The Burma Terrane was part of a Trans-Tethyan island arc and stood at a near-equatorial southern latitude at similar to 95 Ma, suggesting island endemism for the Burmese amber biota. The Burma Terrane underwent significant clockwise rotation between similar to 80 and 50 Ma, causing its subduction margin to become hyper-oblique. Subsequently, it was translated northward on the Indian Plate by an exceptional distance of at least 2,000 km along a dextral strike-slip fault system in the east. Our reconstructions are only compatible with geodynamic models involving an initial collision of India with a near-equatorial Trans-Tethyan subduction system at similar to 60 Ma, followed by a later collision with the Asian margin.
The Argentine-German Geodetic Observatory (AGGO) is one of the very few sites in the Southern Hemisphere equipped with comprehensive cutting-edge geodetic instrumentation. The employed observation techniques are used for a wide range of geophysical applications. The data set provides gravity time series and selected gravity models together with the hydrometeorological monitoring data of the observatory. These parameters are of great interest to the scientific community, e.g. for achieving accurate realization of terrestrial and celestial reference frames. Moreover, the availability of the hydrometeorological products is beneficial to inhabitants of the region as they allow for monitoring of environmental changes and natural hazards including extreme events. The hydrological data set is composed of time series of groundwater level, modelled and observed soil moisture content, soil temperature, and physical soil properties and aquifer properties. The meteorological time series include air temperature, humidity, pressure, wind speed, solar radiation, precipitation, and derived reference evapotranspiration. These data products are extended by gravity models of hydrological, oceanic, La Plata estuary, and atmospheric effects. The quality of the provided meteorological time series is tested via comparison to the two closest WMO (World Meteorological Organization) sites where data are available only in an inferior temporal resolution. The hydrological series are validated by comparing the respective forward-modelled gravity effects to independent gravity observations reduced up to a signal corresponding to local water storage variation. Most of the time series cover the time span between April 2016 and November 2018 with either no or only few missing data points. The data set is available at https://doi.org/10.588/GFZ.5.4.2018.001 (Mikolaj et al., 2018).
The computation of such synthetic GFs is computationally and operationally demanding. As a consequence, the onthe-fly recalculation of synthetic GFs in each iteration of an optimisation is time-consuming and impractical. Therefore, the pre-calculation and efficient storage of synthetic GFs on a dense grid of source to receiver combinations enables the efficient lookup and utilisation of GFs in time-critical scenarios. We present a Python-based framework and toolkit - Pyrocko-GF - that enables the pre-calculation of synthetic GF stores, which are independent of their numerical calculation method and GF transfer function. The framework aids in the creation of such GF stores by interfacing a suite of established numerical forward modelling codes in seismology (computational back ends). So far, interfaces to back ends for layered Earth model cases have been provided; however, the architecture of Pyrocko-GF is designed to cover back ends for other geometries (e.g. full 3-D heterogeneous media) and other physical quantities (e.g. gravity, pressure, tilt). Therefore, Pyrocko-GF defines an extensible GF storage format suitable for a wide range of GF types, especially handling elasticity and wave propagation problems. The framework assists with visualisations, quality control, and the exchange of GF stores, which is supported through an online platform that provides many pre-calculated GF stores for local, regional, and global studies. The Pyrocko-GF toolkit comes with a well-documented application programming interface (API) for the Python programming language to efficiently facilitate forward modelling of geophysical processes, e.g. synthetic waveforms or static displacements for a wide range of source models.
We investigate the inclusions hosted in peritectic garnet from metapelitic migmatites of the Kinzigite Formation (Ivrea Zone, NW Italy) to evaluate the starting composition of the anatectic melt and fluid regime during anatexis throughout the upper amphibolite facies, transition, and granulite facies zones. Inclusions have negative crystal shapes, sizes from 2 to 10 mu m and are regularly distributed in the core of the garnet. Microstructural and micro-Raman investigations indicate the presence of two types of inclusions: crystallized silicate melt inclusions (i.e., nanogranitoids, NI), and fluid inclusions (FI). Microstructural evidence suggests that FI and NI coexist in the same cluster and are primary (i.e., were trapped simultaneously during garnet growth). FI have similar compositions in the three zones and comprise variable proportions of CO2, CH4, and N-2, commonly with siderite, pyrophyllite, and kaolinite, suggesting a COHN composition of the trapped fluid. The mineral assemblage in the NI contains K-feldspar, plagioclase, quartz, biotite, muscovite, chlorite, graphite and, rarely, calcite. Polymorphs such as kumdykolite, cristobalite, tridymite, and less commonly kokchetavite, were also found. Rehomogenized NI from the different zones show that all the melts are leucogranitic but have slightly different compositions. In samples from the upper amphibolite facies, melts are less mafic (FeO + MgO = 2.0-3.4 wt%), contain 860-1700 ppm CO2 and reach the highest H2O contents (6.5-10 wt%). In the transition zone melts have intermediate H2O (4.8-8.5 wt%), CO2 (457-1534 ppm) and maficity (FeO + MgO = 2.3-3.9 wt%). In contrast, melts at granulite facies reach highest CaO, FeO + MgO (3.2-4.7 wt%), and CO2 (up to 2,400 ppm), with H2O contents comparable (5.4-8.3 wt%) to the other two zones. Our results represent the first clear evidence for carbonic fluid-present melting in the Ivrea Zone. Anatexis of metapelites occurred through muscovite and biotite breakdown melting in the presence of a COH fluid, in a situation of fluid-melt immiscibility. The fluid is assumed to have been internally derived, produced initially by devolatilization of hydrous silicates in the graphitic protolith, then as a result of oxidation of carbon by consumption of Fe3+-bearing biotite during melting. Variations in the compositions of the melts are interpreted to result from higher T of melting. The H2O contents of the melts throughout the three zones are higher than usually assumed for initial H2O contents of anatectic melts. The CO2 contents are highest at granulite facies, and show that carbon-contents of crustal magmas are not negligible at high T. The activity of H2O of the fluid dissolved in granitic melts decreases with increasing metamorphic grade. Carbonic fluid-present melting of the deep continental crust represents, together with hydrate-breakdown melting reactions, an important process in the origin of crustal anatectic granitoids.
Hungry cities: how local food self-sufficiency relates to climate change, diets, and urbanisation
(2019)
Using a newly developed model approach and combining it with remote sensing, population, and climate data, first insights are provided into how local diets, urbanisation, and climate change relates to local urban food self-sufficiency. In plain terms, by utilizing the global peri-urban (PU) food production potential approximately lbn urban residents (30% of global urban population) can be locally nourished, whereby further urbanisation is by far the largest pressure factor on PU agriculture, followed by a change of diets, and climate change. A simple global food transport model which optimizes transport and neglects differences in local emission intensities indicates that CO2 emissions related to food transport can be reduced by a factor of 10.
The Chew Bahir Drilling Project (CBDP) aims to test possible linkages between climate and evolution in Africa through the analysis of sediment cores that have recorded environmental changes in the Chew Bahir basin. In this statistical project we consider the Chew Bahir palaeolake to be a dynamical system consisting of interactions between its different components, such as the waterbody, the sediment beneath lake, and the organisms living within and around the lake. Recurrence is a common feature of such dynamical systems, with recurring patterns in the state of the system reflecting typical influences. Identifying and defining these influences contributes significantly to our understanding of the dynamics of the system. Different recurring changes in precipitation, evaporation, and wind speed in the Chew Bahir basin could result in similar (but not identical) conditions in the lake (e.g., depth and area of the lake, alkalinity and salinity of the lake water, species assemblages in the water body, and diagenesis in the sediments). Recurrence plots (RPs) are graphic displays of such recurring states within a system. Measures of complexity were subsequently introduced to complement the visual inspection of recurrence plots, and provide quantitative descriptions for use in recurrence quantification analysis (RQA). We present and discuss herein results from an RQA on the environmental record from six short (< 17 m) sediment cores collected during the CBDP, spanning the last 45 kyrs. The different types of variability and transitions in these records were classified to improve our understanding of the response of the biosphere to climate change, and especially the response of humans in the area.
Underground coal gasification (UCG) enables utilization of coal reserves, currently not economically exploitable due to complex geological boundary conditions. Hereby, UCG produces a high-calorific synthesis gas that can be used for generation of electricity, fuels, and chemical feedstock. The present study aims to identify economically-competitive, site-specific end-use options for onshore- and offshore-produced UCG synthesis gas, taking into account the capture and storage (CCS) and/or utilization (CCU) of produced CO2. Modeling results show that boundary conditions favoring electricity, methanol, and ammonia production expose low costs for air separation, low compression power requirements, and appropriate shares of H-2/N-2. Hereby, a gasification agent ratio of more than 30% oxygen by volume is not favorable from the economic and CO2 mitigation viewpoints. Compared to the costs of an offshore platform with its technical equipment, offshore drilling costs are marginal. Thus, uncertainties related to parameters influenced by drilling costs are negligible. In summary, techno-economic process modeling results reveal that air-blown gasification scenarios are the most cost-effective ones, while offshore UCG-CCS/CCU scenarios are up to 1.7 times more expensive than the related onshore processes. Hereby, all investigated onshore scenarios except from ammonia production under the assumed worst-case conditions are competitive on the European market.
We study optimal and equilibrium sizes of cities in a city system model with pollution. Pollution is a function of population size. If pollution is local or per-capita pollution increases with population, equilibrium cities are too large under symmetry; with asymmetric cities, the largest cities are too large and the smallest too small. When pollution is global and per-capita pollution declines with city size, cities may be too small under symmetry; with asymmetric cities, the largest cities are too small and the smallest too large if the marginal damage of pollution is large enough. We calibrate the model to US cities and find that the largest cities may be undersized by 3-4%.
Flood risk will increase in many areas around the world due to climate change and increase in economic exposure. This implies that adequate flood insurance schemes are needed to adapt to increasing flood risk and to minimise welfare losses for households in flood-prone areas. Flood insurance markets may need reform to offer sufficient and affordable financial protection and incentives for risk reduction. Here, we present the results of a study that aims to evaluate the ability of flood insurance arrangements in Europe to cope with trends in flood risk, using criteria that encompass common elements of the policy debate on flood insurance reform. We show that the average risk-based flood insurance premium could double between 2015 and 2055 in the absence of more risk reduction by households exposed to flooding. We show that part of the expected future increase in flood risk could be limited by flood insurance mechanisms that better incentivise risk reduction by policyholders, which lowers vulnerability. The affordability of flood insurance can be improved by introducing the key features of public-private partnerships (PPPs), which include public reinsurance, limited premium cross-subsidisation between low- and high-risk households, and incentives for policyholder-level risk reduction. These findings were evaluated in a comprehensive sensitivity analysis and support ongoing reforms in Europe and abroad that move towards risk-based premiums and link insurance with risk reduction, strengthen purchase requirements, and engage in multi-stakeholder partnerships.
The large, shallow earthquakes at Northridge, California (1994), Chi-Chi, Taiwan (1999), and Wenchuan, China (2008), each triggered thousands of landslides. We have determined the position of these landslides along hillslopes, normalizing for statistical bias. The landslide patterns have a co-seismic signature, with clustering at ridge crests and slope toes. A cross-check against rainfall-induced landslide inventories seems to confirm that crest clustering is specific to seismic triggering as observed in previous studies. In our three study areas, the seismic ground motion parameters and lithologic and topographic features used do not seem to exert a primary control on the observed patterns of landslide clustering. However, we show that at the scale of the epicentral area, crest and toe clustering occur in areas with specific geological features. Toe clustering of seismically induced landslides tends to occur along regional major faults. Crest clustering is concentrated at sites where the lithology along hillslopes is approximately uniform, or made of alternating soft and hard strata, and without strong overprint of geological structures. Although earthquake-induced landslides locate higher on hillslopes in a statistically significant way, geological features strongly modulate the landslide position along the hillslopes. As a result the observation of landslide clustering on topographic ridges cannot be used as a definite indicator of the topographic amplification of ground shaking.
Compound flooding, such as the co-occurrence of fluvial floods and extreme coastal water levels (CWL), may lead to significant impacts in densely-populated Low Elevation Coastal Zones. They may overstrain disaster management owing to the co-occurrence of inundation from rivers and the sea. Recent studies are limited by analyzing joint dependence between river discharge and either CWL or storm surges, and little is known about return levels of compound flooding, accounting for the covariance between drivers. Here, we assess the compound flood severity and identify hotspots for northwestern Europe during 1970–2014, using a newly developed Compound Hazard Ratio (CHR) that compares the severity of compound flooding associated with extreme CWL with the unconditional T-year fluvial peak discharge. We show that extreme CWL and stronger storms greatly amplify fluvial flood hazards. Our results, based on frequency analyses of observational records during 2013/2014’s winter storm Xaver, reveal that the river discharge of the 50-year compound flood is up to 70% larger, conditioned on the occurrence of extreme CWL, than that of the at-site peak discharge. For this event, nearly half of the stream gauges show increased flood hazards, demonstrating the importance of including the compounding effect of extreme CWL in river flood risk management.
Main group pallasite meteorites are samples of a single early magmatic planetesimal, dominated by metal and olivine but containing accessory chromite, sulfide, phosphide, phosphates, and rare phosphoran olivine. They represent mixtures of core and mantle materials, but the environment of formation is poorly understood, with a quiescent core-mantle boundary, violent core-mantle mixture, or surface mixture all recently suggested. Here, we review main group pallasite data sets and petrologic characteristics, and present new observations on the low-MnO pallasite Brahin that contains abundant fragmental olivine, but also rounded and angular olivine and potential evidence of sulfide-phosphide liquid immiscibility. A reassessment of the literature shows that low-MnO and high-FeO subgroups preferentially host rounded olivine and low-temperature P2O5-rich phases such as the Mg-phosphate farringtonite and phosphoran olivine. These phases form after metal and silicate reservoirs back-react during decreasing temperature after initial separation, resulting in oxidation of phosphorus and chromium. Farringtonite and phosphoran olivine have not been found in the common subgroup PMG, which are mechanical mixtures of olivine, chromite with moderate Al2O3 contents, primitive solid metal, and evolved liquid metal. Lower concentrations of Mn in olivine of the low-MnO PMG subgroup, and high concentrations of Mn in low-Al2O3 chromites, trace the development and escape of sulfide-rich melt in pallasites and the partially chalcophile behavior for Mn in this environment. Pallasites with rounded olivine indicate that the core-mantle boundary of their planetesimal may not be a simple interface but rather a volume in which interactions between metal, silicate, and other components occur.
We investigated deep-seated gravitational slope deformation (DSGSD) and slow mass movements in the southern Tien Shan Mountains front using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) time-series data obtained by the ALOS/PALSAR satellite. DSGSD evolves with a variety of geomorphological changes (e.g. valley erosion, incision of slope drainage networks) over time that affect earth surfaces and, therefore, often remain unexplored. We analysed 118 interferograms generated from 20 SAR images that covered about 900 km(2). To understand the spatial pattern of the slope movements and to identify triggering parameters, we correlated surface dynamics with the tectono-geomorphic processes and lithologic conditions of the active front of the Alai Range. We observed spatially continuous, constant hillslope movements with a downslope speed of approximately 71 mm year(-1) velocity. Our findings suggest that the lithological and structural framework defined by protracted deformation was the main controlling factor for sustained relief and, consequently, downslope mass movements. The analysed structures revealed integration of a geological/structural setting with the superposition of Cretaceous-Paleogene alternating carbonatic and clastic sedimentary structures as the substratum for younger, less consolidated sediments. This type of structural setting causes the development of large-scale, gravity-driven DSGSD and slow mass movement. Surface deformations with clear scarps and multiple crest lines triggered planes for large-scale deep mass creeps, and these were related directly to active faults and folds in the geologic structures. Our study offers a new combination of InSAR techniques and structural field observations, along with morphometric and seismologic correlations, to identify and quantify slope instability phenomena along a tectonically active mountain front. These results contribute to an improved natural risk assessment in these structures.
Oxidation of particulate organic carbon (POC) during fluvial transit releases CO2 to the atmosphere and can influence global climate. Field data show large POC oxidation fluxes in lowland rivers; however, it is unclear if POC losses occur predominantly during in-river transport, where POC is in continual motion within an aerated environment, or during transient storage in floodplains, which may be anoxic. Determination of the locus of POC oxidation in lowland rivers is needed to develop process-based models to predict POC losses, constrain carbon budgets, and unravel links between climate and erosion. However, sediment exchange between rivers and floodplains makes differentiating POC oxidation during in-river transport from oxidation during floodplain storage difficult. Here, we isolated inriver POC oxidation using flume experiments transporting petrogenic and biospheric POC without floodplain storage. Our experiments showed solid phase POC losses of 0%-10% over similar to 10(3) km of fluvial transport, compared to similar to 7% to >50% losses observed in rivers over similar distances. The production of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and dissolved rhenium (a proxy for petrogenic POC oxidation) was consistent with small POC lasses, and replicate experiments in static water tanks gave similar results. Our results show that fluvial sediment transport, particle abrasion, and turbulent mixing have a minimal role on POC oxidation, and they suggest that POC losses may accrue primarily in floodplain storage.
In this study we examine the tonal organization of a series of recordings of liturgical chants, sung in 1966 by the Georgian master singer Artem Erkomaishvili. This dataset is the oldest corpus of Georgian chants from which the time synchronous F0-trajectories for all three voices have been reliably determined (Müller et al. 2017). It is therefore of outstanding importance for the understanding of the tuning principles of traditional Georgian vocal music.
The aim of the present study is to use various computational methods to analyze what these recordings can contribute to the ongoing scientific dispute about traditional Georgian tuning systems. Starting point for the present analysis is the re-release of the original audio data together with estimated fundamental frequency (F0) trajectories for each of the three voices, beat annotations, and digital scores (Rosenzweig et al. 2020). We present synoptic models for the pitch and the harmonic interval distributions, which are the first of such models for which the complete Erkomaishvili dataset was used. We show that these distributions can be very compactly be expressed as Gaussian mixture models, anchored on discrete sets of pitch or interval values for the pitch and interval distributions, respectively. As part of our study we demonstrate that these pitch values, which we refer to as scale pitches, and which are determined as the mean values of the Gaussian mixture elements, define the scale degrees of the melodic sound scales which build the skeleton of Artem Erkomaishvili’s intonation. The observation of consistent pitch bending of notes in melodic phrases, which appear in identical form in a group of chants, as well as the observation of harmonically driven intonation adjustments, which are clearly documented for all pure harmonic intervals, demonstrate that Artem Erkomaishvili intentionally deviates from the scale pitch skeleton quite freely. As a central result of our study, we proof that this melodic freedom is always constrained by the attracting influence of the scale pitches. Deviations of the F0-values of individual note events from the scale pitches at one instance of time are compensated for in the subsequent melodic steps. This suggests a deviation-compensation mechanism at the core of Artem Erkomaishvili’s melody generation, which clearly honors the scales but still allows for a large degree of melodic flexibility. This model, which summarizes all partial aspects of our analysis, is consistent with the melodic scale models derived from the observed pitch distributions, as well as with the melodic and harmonic interval distributions. In addition to the tangible results of our work, we believe that our work has general implications for the determination of tuning models from audio data, in particular for non-tempered music.
The Kp index is a measure of the midlatitude global geomagnetic activity and represents short-term magnetic variations driven by solar wind plasma and interplanetary magnetic field. The Kp index is one of the most widely used indicators for space weather alerts and serves as input to various models, such as for the thermosphere and the radiation belts. It is therefore crucial to predict the Kp index accurately. Previous work in this area has mostly employed artificial neural networks to nowcast Kp, based their inferences on the recent history of Kp and on solar wind measurements at L1. In this study, we systematically test how different machine learning techniques perform on the task of nowcasting and forecasting Kp for prediction horizons of up to 12 hr. Additionally, we investigate different methods of machine learning and information theory for selecting the optimal inputs to a predictive model. We illustrate how these methods can be applied to select the most important inputs to a predictive model of Kp and to significantly reduce input dimensionality. We compare our best performing models based on a reduced set of optimal inputs with the existing models of Kp, using different test intervals, and show how this selection can affect model performance.
The morphology of marine and lacustrine terraces has been largely used to measure past sea- and lake-level positions and estimate vertical deformation in a wealth of studies focused on climate and tectonic processes. To obtain accurate morphometric assessments of terrace morphology we present TerraceM-2, an improved version of our MatlabR (R) graphic-user interface that provides new methodologies for morphometric analyses as well as landscape evolution and fault-dislocation modeling. The new version includes novel routines to map the elevation and spatial distribution of terraces, to model their formation and evolution, and to estimate fault-slip rates from terrace deformation patterns. TerraceM-2 has significantly improves its processing speed and mapping capabilities, and includes separate functions for developing customized workflows beyond the graphic-user interface. We illustrate these new mapping and modeling capabilities with three examples: mapping lacustrine shorelines in the Dead Sea to estimate deformation across the Dead Sea Fault, landscape evolution modeling to estimate a history of uplift rates in southern Peru, and dislocation modeling of deformed marine terraces in California. These examples also illustrate the need to use topographic data of different resolutions. The new modeling and mapping routines of TerraceM-2 highlight the advantages of an integrated joint mapping and modeling approach to improve the efficiency and precision of coastal terrace metrics in both marine and lacustrine environments.
Rapidly changing climate in the Northern Hemisphere and associated socio-economic impacts require reliable understanding of lake systems as important freshwater resources and sensitive sentinels of environmental change. To better understand time-series data in lake sediment cores, it is necessary to gain information on within-lake spatial variabilities of environmental indicator data. Therefore, we retrieved a set of 38 samples from the sediment surface along spatial habitat gradients in the boreal, deep, and yet pristine Lake Bolshoe Toko in southern Yakutia, Russia. Our methods comprise laboratory analyses of the sediments for multiple proxy parameters, including diatom and chironomid taxonomy, oxygen isotopes from diatom silica, grain-size distributions, elemental compositions (XRF), organic carbon content, and mineralogy (XRD). We analysed the lake water for cations, anions, and isotopes. Our results show that the diatom assemblages are strongly influenced by water depth and dominated by planktonic species, i.e. Pliocaenicus bolshetokoensis. Species richness and diversity are higher in the northern part of the lake basin, associated with the availability of benthic, i.e. periphytic, niches in shallower waters. delta O-18(diatom) values are higher in the deeper south-western part of the lake, probably related to water temperature differences. The highest amount of the chironomid taxa underrepresented in the training set used for palaeoclimate inference was found close to the Utuk River and at southern littoral and profundal sites. Abiotic sediment components are not symmetrically distributed in the lake basin, but vary along restricted areas of differential environmental forcing. Grain size and organic matter are mainly controlled by both river input and water depth. Mineral (XRD) data distributions are influenced by the methamorphic lithology of the Stanovoy mountain range, while elements (XRF) are intermingled due to catchment and diagenetic differences. We conclude that the lake represents a valuable archive for multiproxy environmental reconstruction based on diatoms (including oxygen isotopes), chironomids, and sediment-geochemical parameters. Our analyses suggest multiple coring locations preferably at intermediate depth in the northern basin and the deep part in the central basin, to account for representative bioindicator distributions and higher temporal resolution, respectively.
One commonly proposed method to limit flood risk is land-use or zoning policies which regulates construction in high-risk areas, in order to reduce economic exposure and its vulnerability to flood events. Although such zoning regulations can be effective in limiting trends in flood risk, they also have adverse impacts on society, for instance by limiting local development of areas near the water. In order to judge whether proposed land-use or zoning policies are a net benefit to society, they should be accepted or rejected based on a societal cost-benefit analysis (CBA). However, conducting a CBA of zoning regulation is complex and comprehensive guidelines of how to do such an analysis are lacking. We offer guidelines for good practice. In order to assess the costs and benefits of zoning as a climate change adaption strategy, they should be assessed at a societal level in order to account for public good features of flood risk reduction strategies, and because costs in one area can be benefits in another region. We propose a multistep process: first, determine the spatial extent of the zoning policy and how interconnected the zoned area is to other locations; second, conduct a CBA using monetary costs and benefits estimated from an integrated hydro-economic model to investigate if total benefits exceed total costs; third, conduct a sensitivity analysis regarding the main assumptions; fourth, conduct a multicriteria analysis (MCA) of the normative outcomes of a zoning policy. A desirable policy is preferred in both the CBA and MCA. This article is categorized under: Engineering Water > Planning Water Human Water > Value of Water Science of Water > Water Extremes Human Water > Methods
Microbial community composition and abundance after millennia of submarine permafrost warming
(2019)
Warming of the Arctic led to an increase in permafrost temperatures by about 0.3 degrees C during the last decade. Permafrost warming is associated with increasing sediment water content, permeability, and diffusivity and could in the long term alter microbial community composition and abundance even before permafrost thaws. We studied the long-term effect (up to 2500 years) of submarine permafrost warming on microbial communities along an onshore-offshore transect on the Siberian Arctic Shelf displaying a natural temperature gradient of more than 10 degrees C. We analysed the in situ development of bacterial abundance and community composition through total cell counts (TCCs), quantitative PCR of bacterial gene abundance, and amplicon sequencing and correlated the microbial community data with temperature, pore water chemistry, and sediment physicochemical parameters. On timescales of centuries, permafrost warming coincided with an overall decreasing microbial abundance, whereas millennia after warming microbial abundance was similar to cold onshore permafrost. In addition, the dissolved organic carbon content of all cores was lowest in submarine permafrost after millennial-scale warming. Based on correlation analysis, TCC, unlike bacterial gene abundance, showed a significant rank-based negative correlation with increasing temperature, while bacterial gene copy numbers showed a strong negative correlation with salinity. Bacterial community composition correlated only weakly with temperature but strongly with the pore water stable isotopes delta O-18 and delta D, as well as with depth. The bacterial community showed substantial spatial variation and an overall dominance of Actinobacteria, Chloroflexi, Firmicutes, Gemmatimonadetes, and Proteobacteria, which are amongst the microbial taxa that were also found to be active in other frozen permafrost environments. We suggest that, millennia after permafrost warming by over 10 degrees C, microbial community composition and abundance show some indications for proliferation but mainly reflect the sedimentation history and paleoenvironment and not a direct effect through warming.
The Baringo-Tugen-Barsemoi 2013 drillcore (BTB13), acquired as part of the Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project, recovered 228 m of fluviolacustrine sedimentary rocks and tuffs spanning a similar to 3.29-2.56 Ma interval of the highly fossiliferous and hominin-bearing Chemeron Formation, Tugen Hills, Kenya. Here we present a Bayesian stratigraphic age model for the core employing chronostratigraphic control points derived from Ar-40/Ar-39 dating of tuffs from core and outcrop, Ar-40/Ar-39 age calibration of related outcrop diatomaceous units, and core magnetostratigraphy. The age model reveals three main intervals with distinct sediment accumulation rates: an early rapid phase from 3.2 to 2.9 Ma; a relatively slow phase from 2.9 to 2.7 Ma; and the highest rate of accumulation from 2.7 to 2.6 Ma. The intervals of rapid accumulation correspond to periods of high Earth orbital eccentricity, whereas the slow accumulation interval corresponds to low eccentricity at 2.9-2.7 Ma, suggesting that astronomically mediated climate processes may be responsible for the observed changes in sediment accumulation rate. Lacustrine transgression-regression events, as delineated using sequence stratigraphy, dominantly operate on precession scale, particularly within the high eccentricity periods. A set of erosively based fluvial conglomerates correspond to the 2.9-2.7 Ma interval, which could be related to either the depositional response to low eccentricity or to the development of unconformities due to local tectonic activity. Age calibration of core magnetic susceptibility and gamma density logs indicates a close temporal correspondence between a shift from high- to low-frequency signal variability at similar to 3 Ma, approximately coincident the end of the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period, and the beginning of the cooling of world climate leading to the initiation of Northern Hemispheric glaciation c. 2.7 Ma. BTB13 and the Baringo Basin records may thus provide evidence of a connection between high-latitude glaciation and equatorial terrestrial climate toward the end of the Pliocene.
An understanding of the depositional environment and paleogeography of the Siwalik foreland basin are crucial in interpreting the basin configuration, sediment transport pathways and its evolutionary history. This study examines the sedimentology of the Siwalik succession of the Kameng River valley, Arunachal Himalaya, northeastern India. The facies characteristics of the fine-grained, well-sorted sediments of the Dafla Formation and its complex, polymodal paleocurrent pattern in this section, reveals deposition in a variety of open marine to deltaic environment. The overlying Subansiri Formation, characterized by coarse-grained, thick, multistoried sandstone, and showing more consistent SW-ward paleocurrent, indicate deposition from a large, axial braided river system. The proposed redefinition of the boundary between the Lower Siwalik Dafia and the Middle Siwalik Subansiri formations implies their transition at around 7.5 Ma, instead of 10.5 Ma, suggested earlier. The revised age of the transition is consistent with the age of arrival of the Transhimalayan sediments at 7 Ma and also denotes the time of marine to fluvial transition in this area. Presence of marine sediments in the Kameng section, with similar records further west, indicates the existence of an extensive seaway in the eastern Himalaya during the lower Siwalik time. The extant paleodrainage reconstructions have been recast on the basis of new data on the sedimentology and paleocurrent from this section. It is inferred that the changing sea level, uplifting Shillong Plateau and drainage evolution in the eastern Himalayan foreland during the middle Miocene time controlled the marine to fluvial transition in the basin.
Debate persists concerning the timing and geodynamics of intercontinental collision, style of syncollisional deformation, and development of topography and fold-and-thrust belts along the >1,700-km-long Izmir-Ankara-Erzincan suture zone (IAESZ) in Turkey. Resolving this debate is a necessary precursor to evaluating the integrity of convergent margin models and kinematic, topographic, and biogeographic reconstructions of the Mediterranean domain. Geodynamic models argue either for a synchronous or diachronous collision during either the Late Cretaceous and/or Eocene, followed by Eocene slab breakoff and postcollisional magmatism. We investigate the collision chronology in western Anatolia as recorded in the sedimentary archives of the 90-km-long Saricakaya Basin perched at shallow structural levels along the IAESZ. Based on new zircon U-Pb geochronology and depositional environment and sedimentary provenance results, we demonstrate that the Saricakaya Basin is an Eocene sedimentary basin with sediment sourced from both the IAESZ and Sogut Thrust fault to the south and north, respectively, and formed primarily by flexural loading from north-south shortening along the syncollisional Sogut Thrust. Our results refine the timing of collision between the Anatolides and Pontide terranes in western Anatolia to Maastrichtian-Middle Paleocene and Early Eocene crustal shortening and basin formation. Furthermore, we demonstrate contemporaneous collision, deformation, and magmatism across the IAESZ, supporting synchronous collision models. We show that regional postcollisional magmatism can be explained by renewed underthrusting instead of slab breakoff. This new IAESZ chronology provides additional constraints for kinematic, geodynamic, and biogeographic reconstructions of the Mediterranean domain.
We analyze trends in compound flooding resulting from high coastal water levels (HCWLs) and peak river discharge over northwestern Europe during 1901-2014. Compound peak discharge associated with 37 stream gauges with at least 70 years of record availability near the North and Baltic Sea coasts is used. Compound flooding is assessed using a newly developed index, compound hazard ratio, that compares the severity of river flooding associated with HCWL with the at-site, T-year (a flood with 1/T chance of being exceeded in any given year) fluvial peak discharge. Our findings suggest a spatially coherent pattern in the dependence between HCWL and river peaks and in compound flood magnitudes and frequency. For higher return levels, we find upward trends in compound hazard ratio frequency at midlatitudes (gauges from 47 degrees N to 60 degrees N) and downward trends along the high latitude (>60 degrees N) regions of northwestern Europe. Plain Language Summary Compound floods in delta areas, that is, the co-occurrence of high coastal water levels (HCWLs) and high river discharge, are a particular challenge for disaster management. Such events are caused by two distinct mechanisms: (1) HCWLs may affect river flows and water levels by backwater effects or by reversing the seaward flow of rivers, particularly in regions with elevation less than 10 m in northwestern Europe. (2) The correlation between HCWL and river flow peaks may also stem from a common meteorological driver. Severe storm periods may be associated with high winds leading to storm surges, and at the same time with high precipitation followed by inland flooding. Understanding the historical trends in compound flooding, owing to changes in relative sea levels, in river flooding and in the dependence between these two drivers, is essential for projecting future changes and disaster management. The risk assessment frameworks are often limited to assessing flood risk from a single driver only. We present a new approach to assess compound flood severity resulting from extreme coastal water level and peak river discharge. We find upward trends in compound flooding for midlatitude regions and downward trends for high latitudes in northwestern Europe.
Hierarchical Bayesian Approach for Modeling Spatiotemporal Variability in Flood Damage Processes
(2019)
Flood damage processes are complex and vary between events and regions. State-of-the-art flood loss models are often developed on the basis of empirical damage data from specific case studies and do not perform well when spatially and temporally transferred. This is due to the fact that such localized models often cover only a small set of possible damage processes from one event and a region. On the other hand, a single generalized model covering multiple events and different regions ignores the variability in damage processes across regions and events due to variables that are not explicitly accounted for individual households. We implement a hierarchical Bayesian approach to parameterize widely used depth-damage functions resulting in a hierarchical (multilevel) Bayesian model (HBM) for flood loss estimation that accounts for spatiotemporal heterogeneity in damage processes. We test and prove the hypothesis that, in transfer scenarios, HBMs are superior compared to generalized and localized regression models. In order to improve loss predictions for regions and events for which no empirical damage data are available, we use variables pertaining to specific region- and event-characteristics representing commonly available expert knowledge as group-level predictors within the HBM.
Empirical evidence of the relationship between social support and post-disaster mental health provides support for a general beneficial effect of social support (main-effect model; Wheaton, 1985). From a theoretical perspective, a buffering effect of social support on the negative relationship between disaster-related stress and mental health also seems plausible (stress-buffering model; Wheaton, 1985). Previous studies, however, (a) have paid less attention to the buffering effect of social support and (b) have mainly relied on interpersonal support (but not collective-level support such as community resilience) when investigating this issue. This previous work might have underestimated the effect of support on post-disaster mental health. Building on a sample of residents in Germany recently affected by flooding (N = 118), we show that community resilience to flooding (but not general interpersonal social support) buffered against the negative effects of flooding on post-disaster mental health. The results support the stress-buffering model and call for a more detailed look at the relationship between support and resilience and post-disaster adjustment, including collective-level variables.
Paleogeographic reconstructions of terranes can greatly benefit from the provenance analysis of sediments. A series of Cenozoic basins provide key sedimentary archives for investigating the growth of the Tibetan Plateau, yet the provenance of the sediments in these basins has never been constrained robustly. Here we report sedimentary petrological and detrital zircon geochronological data from the Paleocene-Eocene Nangqian-Xialaxiu and Gongjue basins. Sandstone detrital modes and zircon morphology suggest that the samples collected in these two basins were sourced from recycled orogen. Detrital zircon geochronology indicates that sediments in the Nangqian-Xialaxiu Basin are characterized by two distinct age populations at 220-280 Ma and 405-445 Ma. In contrast, three predominant age populations of 207-256 Ma, 423-445 Ma, and 1851-1868 Ma, and two subordinate age populations of similar to 50 Ma and similar to 2500 Ma, are recognized in the Gongjue Basin. Comparison with detrital zircon ages from the surrounding terranes suggests that sediments in the Nangqian-Xialaxiu Basin come from the neighboring thrust belts, whereas sediments from the Gongjue Basin are predominantly derived from the distant Songpan-Ganzi Terrane with minor contribution from the surrounding areas. A three-stage Cenozoic evolution of the eastern Tibetan Plateau is proposed. During the Paleocene, the Nangqian-Xialaxiu Basin appeared as a set of small intermontane sub-basins and received plentiful sediments from the neighboring mountain belts; during the Eocene, the Gongjue Basin kept a relatively low altitude and was a depression at the edge of a proto-Plateau; since the Oligocene, the Tibetan Plateau further uplifted and the marginal Gongjue Basin was involved in the Tibetan interior orogeny, indicating the eastward propagation of the Tibetan Plateau.
Sociocultural valuation (SCV) of ecosystem services (ES) discloses the principles, importance or preferences expressed by people towards nature. Although ES research has increasingly addressed sociocultural values in past years, little effort has been made to systematically review the components of sociocultural valuation applications for different decision contexts (i.e. awareness raising, accounting, priority setting, litigation and instrument design). In this analysis, we investigate the characteristics of 48 different sociocultural valuation applications—characterised by unique combinations of decision context, methods, data collection formats and participants—across ten European case studies. Our findings show that raising awareness for the sociocultural value of ES by capturing people’s perspective and establishing the status quo, was found the most frequent decision context in case studies, followed by priority setting and instrument development. Accounting and litigation issues were not addressed in any of the applications. We reveal that applications for particular decision contexts are methodologically similar, and that decision contexts determine the choice of methods, data collection formats and participants involved. Therefore, we conclude that understanding the decision context is a critical first step to designing and carrying out fit-for-purpose sociocultural valuation of ES in operational ecosystem management.
Colombia's agriculture, forestry and other land use sector accounts for nearly half of its total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The importance of smallholder deforestation is comparatively high in relation to its regional counterparts, and livestock agriculture represents the largest driver of primary forest depletion. Silvopastoral systems (SPSs) are presented as agroecological solutions that synergistically enhance livestock productivity, improve local farmers' livelihoods and hold the potential to reduce pressure on forest conversion. The department of Caquetá represents Colombia's most important deforestation hotspot. Targeting smallholder livestock farms through survey data, in this work we investigate the GHG mitigation potential of implementing SPSs for smallholder farms in this region. Specifically, we assess whether the carbon sequestration taking place in the soil and biomass of SPSs is sufficient to offset the per-hectare increase in livestock GHG emissions resulting from higher stocking rates. To address these questions we use data on livestock population characteristics and historic land cover changes reported from a survey covering 158 farms and model the carbon sequestration occurring in three different scenarios of progressively-increased SPS complexity using the CO2 fix model. We find that, even with moderate tree planting densities, the implementation of SPSs can reduce GHG emissions by 2.6 Mg CO2e ha−1 yr−1 in relation to current practices, while increasing agriculture productivity and contributing to the restoration of severely degraded landscapes.
Caldera unrest can lead to major volcanic eruptions. Analysis of subtle subsidence or inflation at calderas helps understanding of their subsurface volcanic processes and related hazards. Several subsiding calderas have shown similar patterns of ground deformation composed of broad subsidence affecting the entire volcanic edifice and stronger localized subsidence focused inside the caldera. Physical models of internal deformation sources used to explain these observations typically consist of two magma reservoirs at different depths in an elastic half-space. However, such models ignore important subsurface structures, such as ring faults, that may influence the deformation pattern. Here we use both analog subsidence experiments and boundary element modeling to study the three-dimensional geometry and kinematics of caldera subsidence processes, evolving from an initial downsag to a later collapse stage. We propose that broad subsidence is mainly caused by volume decrease within a single magma reservoir, whereas buried ring-fault activity localizes the deformation within the caldera. Omitting ring faulting in physical models of subsiding calderas and using multiple point/sill-like sources instead can result in erroneous estimates of magma reservoir depths and volume changes. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The Alpine orogen formed as a result of the collision between the Adriatic and European plates. Significant crustal heterogeneity exists within the region due to the long history of interplay between these plates, other continental and oceanic blocks in the region, and inherited crustal features from earlier orogenies. Deformation relating to the collision continues to the present day. Here, a seismically constrained, 3-D structural and density model of the lithosphere of the Alps and their respective forelands, derived from integrating numerous geoscientific datasets, was adjusted to match the observed gravity field. It is shown that the distribution of seismicity and deformation within the region correlates well to thickness and density changes within the crust, and that the present-day Adriatic crust is both thinner and denser (22.5 km, 2800 kg m(-3) ) than the European crust (27.5 km, 2750 kg m(-3)). Alpine crust derived from each respective plate is found to show the same trend, with zones of Adriatic provenance (Austro-Alpine unit and Southern Alps) found to be denser and those of European provenance (Helvetic zone and Tauern Window) to be less dense. This suggests that the respective plates and related terranes had similar crustal properties to the present-day ones prior to orogenesis. The model generated here is available for open-access use to further discussions about the crust in the region.
Climate change is affecting the rate of carbon cycling, particularly in the Arctic. Permafrost degradation through deeper thaw and physical disturbances results in the release of carbon dioxide and methane to the atmosphere and to an increase in lateral dissolved organic matter (DOM) fluxes. Whereas riverine DOM fluxes of the large Arctic rivers are well assessed, knowledge is limited with regard to small catchments that cover more than 40% of the Arctic drainage basin. Here, we use absorption measurements to characterize changes in DOM quantity and quality in a low Arctic (Herschel Island, Yukon, Canada) and a high Arctic (Cape Bounty, Melville Island, Nunavut, Canada) setting with regard to geographical differences, impacts of permafrost degradation, and rainfall events. We find that DOM quantity and quality is controlled by differences in vegetation cover and soil organic carbon content (SOCC). The low Arctic site has higher SOCC and greater abundance of plant material resulting in higher chromophoric dissolved organic matter (cDOM) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) than in the high Arctic. DOC concentration and cDOM in surface waters at both sites show strong linear relationships similar to the one for the great Arctic rivers. We used the optical characteristics of DOM such as cDOM absorption, specific ultraviolet absorbance (SUVA), ultraviolet (UV) spectral slopes (S275-295), and slope ratio (SR) for assessing quality changes downstream, at base flow and storm flow conditions, and in relation to permafrost disturbance. DOM in streams at both sites demonstrated optical signatures indicative of photodegradation downstream processes, even over short distances of 2000 m. Flow pathways and the connected hydrological residence time control DOM quality. Deeper flow pathways allow the export of permafrost-derived DOM (i.e. from deeper in the active layer), whereas shallow pathways with shorter residence times lead to the export of fresh surface- and near-surface-derived DOM. Compared to the large Arctic rivers, DOM quality exported from the small catchments studied here is much fresher and therefore prone to degradation. Assessing optical properties of DOM and linking them to catchment properties will be a useful tool for understanding changing DOM fluxes and quality at a pan-Arctic scale.
Deformation associated with plate convergence at subduction zones is accommodated by a complex system involving fault slip and viscoelastic flow. These processes have proven difficult to disentangle. The 2010 M-w 8.8 Maule earthquake occurred close to the Chilean coast within a dense network of continuously recording Global Positioning System stations, which provide a comprehensive history of surface strain. We use these data to assemble a detailed picture of a structurally controlled megathrust fault frictional patchwork and the three-dimensional rheological and time-dependent viscosity structure of the lower crust and upper mantle, all of which control the relative importance of afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation during postseismic deformation. These results enhance our understanding of subduction dynamics including the interplay of localized and distributed deformation during the subduction zone earthquake cycle.
Nature-based solutions (NBS) have recently received attention due to their potential ability to sustainably reduce hydro-meteorological risks, providing co-benefits for both ecosystems and affected people. Therefore, pioneering research has dedicated efforts to optimize the design of NBS, to evaluate their wider co-benefits and to understand promoting and/or hampering governance conditions for the uptake of NBS. In this article, we aim to complement this research by conducting a comprehensive literature review of factors shaping people’s perceptions of NBS as a means to reduce hydro-meteorological risks. Based on 102 studies, we identified six topics shaping the current discussion in this field of research: (1) valuation of the co-benefits (including those related to ecosystems and society); (2) evaluation of risk reduction efficacy; (3) stakeholder participation; (4) socio-economic and location-specific conditions; (5) environmental attitude, and (6) uncertainty. Our analysis reveals that concerned empirical insights are diverse and even contradictory, they vary in the depth of the insights generated and are often not comparable for a lack of a sound theoretical-methodological grounding. We, therefore, propose a conceptual model outlining avenues for future research by indicating potential inter-linkages between constructs underlying perceptions of NBS to hydro-meteorological risks.
We report the chronological construction for the top portion of a speleothem, PC1, from southern Cambodia with the aim of reconstructing a continuous high-resolution climate record covering the fluorescence and decline of the medieval Khmer kingdom and its capital at Angkor (similar to 9th-15th centuries AD). Earlier attempts to date PC1 by the standard U-Th method proved unsuccessful. We have therefore dated this speleothem using radiocarbon. Fifty carbonate samples along the growth axis of PC1 were collected for accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) analysis. Chronological reconstruction for PC1 was achieved using two different approaches described by Hua et al. (2012a) and Lechleitner et al. (2016a). Excellent concordance between the two age-depth models indicates that the top similar to 47 mm of PC1 grew during the last millennium with a growth hiatus during similar to 1250-1650 AD, resulting from a large change in measured C-14 values at 34.4-35.2 mm depth. The timing of the growth hiatus covers the period of decades-long droughts during the 14th-16th centuries AD indicated in regional climate records.
The Central Asian Pamir Mountains (Pamirs) are a high-altitude region sensitive to climatic change, with only few paleoclimatic records available. To examine the glacial-interglacial hydrological changes in the region, we analyzed the geochemical parameters of a 31-kyr record from Lake Karakul and performed a set of experiments with climate models to interpret the results. delta D values of terrestrial biomarkers showed insolation-driven trends reflecting major shifts of water vapor sources. For aquatic biomarkers, positive delta D shifts driven by changes in precipitation seasonality were observed at ca. 31-30, 28-26, and 17-14 kyr BP. Multiproxy paleoecological data and modelling results suggest that increased water availability, induced by decreased summer evaporation, triggered higher lake levels during those episodes, possibly synchronous to northern hemispheric rapid climate events. We conclude that seasonal changes in precipitation-evaporation balance significantly influenced the hydrological state of a large waterbody such as Lake Karakul, while annual precipitation amount and inflows remained fairly constant.
Germany and the United Kingdom have domestic shale gas reserves which they may exploit in the future to complement their national energy strategies. However gas production releases volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), which through photochemical reaction form ground-level ozone, an air pollutant that can trigger adverse health effects e.g. on the respiratory system. This study explores the range of impacts of a potential shale gas industry in these two countries on local and regional ambient ozone. To this end, comprehensive emission scenarios are used as the basis for input to an online-coupled regional chemistry transport model (WRF-Chem). Here we simulate shale gas scenarios over summer (June, July, August) 2011, exploring the effects of varying VOC emissions, gas speciation, and concentration of NOx emissions over space and time, on ozone formation. An evaluation of the model setup is performed, which exhibited the model’s ability to predict surface meteorological and chemical variables well compared with observations, and consistent with other studies. When different shale gas scenarios were employed, the results show a peak increase in maximum daily 8-hour average ozone from 3.7 to 28.3 μg m–3. In addition, we find that shale gas emissions can force ozone exceedances at a considerable percentage of regulatory measurement stations locally (up to 21% in Germany and 35% in the United Kingdom) and in distant countries through long-range transport, and increase the cumulative health-related metric SOMO35 (maximum percent increase of ~28%) throughout the region. Findings indicate that VOC emissions are important for ozone enhancement, and to a lesser extent NOx, meaning that VOC regulation for a future European shale gas industry will be of especial importance to mitigate unfavorable health outcomes. Overall our findings demonstrate that shale gas production in Europe can worsen ozone air quality on both the local and regional scales.
Soil degradation is a severe and growing threat to ecosystem services globally. Soil loss is often nonlinear, involving a rapid deterioration from a stable eco-geomorphic state once a tipping point is reached. Soil loss thresholds have been studied at plot scale, but for landscapes, quantitative constraints on the necessary and sufficient conditions for tipping points are rare. Here, we document a landscape-wide eco-geomorphic tipping point at the edge of the Tibetan Plateau and quantify its drivers and erosional consequences. We show that in the upper Kali Gandaki valley, Nepal, soil formation prevailed under wetter conditions during much of the Holocene. Our data suggest that after a period of human pressure and declining vegetation cover, a 20% reduction of relative humidity and precipitation below 200 mm/year halted soil formation after 1.6 ka and promoted widespread gullying and rapid soil loss, with irreversible consequences for ecosystem services.
Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) is a promising non-invasive technique to estimate snow water equivalent (SWE) over large areas. In contrast to preliminary studies focusing on shallow snow conditions (SWE <130 mm), more recently the method was shown experimentally to be sensitive also to deeper snowpacks providing the basis for its use at mountain experimental sites. However, hysteretic neutron response has been observed for complex snow cover including patchy snow-free areas. In the present study we aimed to understand and support the experimental findings using a comprehensive neutron modeling approach. Several simulations have been set up in order to disentangle the effect on the signal of different land surface characteristics and to reproduce multiple observations during periods of snow melt and accumulation. To represent the actual land surface heterogeneity and the complex snow cover, the model used data from terrestrial laser scanning. The results show that the model was able to accurately reproduce the CRNS signal and particularly the hysteresis effect during accumulation and melting periods. Moreover, the sensor footprint was found to be anisotropic and affected by the spatial distribution of liquid water and snow as well as by the topography of the nearby mountains. Under fully snow-covered conditions the CRNS is able to accurately estimate SWE without prior knowledge about snow density profiles or other spatial anomalies. These results provide new insights into the characteristics of the detected neutron signal in complex terrain and support the use of CRNS for long-term snow monitoring in high elevated mountain environments.
RainNet v1.0
(2020)
In this study, we present RainNet, a deep convolutional neural network for radar-based precipitation nowcasting. Its design was inspired by the U-Net and SegNet families of deep learning models, which were originally designed for binary segmentation tasks. RainNet was trained to predict continuous precipitation intensities at a lead time of 5min, using several years of quality-controlled weather radar composites provided by the German Weather Service (DWD). That data set covers Germany with a spatial domain of 900km × 900km and has a resolution of 1km in space and 5min in time. Independent verification experiments were carried out on 11 summer precipitation events from 2016 to 2017. In order to achieve a lead time of 1h, a recursive approach was implemented by using RainNet predictions at 5min lead times as model inputs for longer lead times. In the verification experiments, trivial Eulerian persistence and a conventional model based on optical flow served as benchmarks. The latter is available in the rainymotion library and had previously been shown to outperform DWD's operational nowcasting model for the same set of verification events.
RainNet significantly outperforms the benchmark models at all lead times up to 60min for the routine verification metrics mean absolute error (MAE) and the critical success index (CSI) at intensity thresholds of 0.125, 1, and 5mm h⁻¹. However, rainymotion turned out to be superior in predicting the exceedance of higher intensity thresholds (here 10 and 15mm h⁻¹). The limited ability of RainNet to predict heavy rainfall intensities is an undesirable property which we attribute to a high level of spatial smoothing introduced by the model. At a lead time of 5min, an analysis of power spectral density confirmed a significant loss of spectral power at length scales of 16km and below. Obviously, RainNet had learned an optimal level of smoothing to produce a nowcast at 5min lead time. In that sense, the loss of spectral power at small scales is informative, too, as it reflects the limits of predictability as a function of spatial scale. Beyond the lead time of 5min, however, the increasing level of smoothing is a mere artifact – an analogue to numerical diffusion – that is not a property of RainNet itself but of its recursive application. In the context of early warning, the smoothing is particularly unfavorable since pronounced features of intense precipitation tend to get lost over longer lead times. Hence, we propose several options to address this issue in prospective research, including an adjustment of the loss function for model training, model training for longer lead times, and the prediction of threshold exceedance in terms of a binary segmentation task. Furthermore, we suggest additional input data that could help to better identify situations with imminent precipitation dynamics. The model code, pretrained weights, and training data are provided in open repositories as an input for such future studies.
RainNet v1.0
(2020)
In this study, we present RainNet, a deep convolutional neural network for radar-based precipitation nowcasting. Its design was inspired by the U-Net and SegNet families of deep learning models, which were originally designed for binary segmentation tasks. RainNet was trained to predict continuous precipitation intensities at a lead time of 5min, using several years of quality-controlled weather radar composites provided by the German Weather Service (DWD). That data set covers Germany with a spatial domain of 900km × 900km and has a resolution of 1km in space and 5min in time. Independent verification experiments were carried out on 11 summer precipitation events from 2016 to 2017. In order to achieve a lead time of 1h, a recursive approach was implemented by using RainNet predictions at 5min lead times as model inputs for longer lead times. In the verification experiments, trivial Eulerian persistence and a conventional model based on optical flow served as benchmarks. The latter is available in the rainymotion library and had previously been shown to outperform DWD's operational nowcasting model for the same set of verification events.
RainNet significantly outperforms the benchmark models at all lead times up to 60min for the routine verification metrics mean absolute error (MAE) and the critical success index (CSI) at intensity thresholds of 0.125, 1, and 5mm h⁻¹. However, rainymotion turned out to be superior in predicting the exceedance of higher intensity thresholds (here 10 and 15mm h⁻¹). The limited ability of RainNet to predict heavy rainfall intensities is an undesirable property which we attribute to a high level of spatial smoothing introduced by the model. At a lead time of 5min, an analysis of power spectral density confirmed a significant loss of spectral power at length scales of 16km and below. Obviously, RainNet had learned an optimal level of smoothing to produce a nowcast at 5min lead time. In that sense, the loss of spectral power at small scales is informative, too, as it reflects the limits of predictability as a function of spatial scale. Beyond the lead time of 5min, however, the increasing level of smoothing is a mere artifact – an analogue to numerical diffusion – that is not a property of RainNet itself but of its recursive application. In the context of early warning, the smoothing is particularly unfavorable since pronounced features of intense precipitation tend to get lost over longer lead times. Hence, we propose several options to address this issue in prospective research, including an adjustment of the loss function for model training, model training for longer lead times, and the prediction of threshold exceedance in terms of a binary segmentation task. Furthermore, we suggest additional input data that could help to better identify situations with imminent precipitation dynamics. The model code, pretrained weights, and training data are provided in open repositories as an input for such future studies.