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In this paper a change-point detection method is proposed by extending the singular spectrum transformation (SST) developed as one of the capabilities of singular spectrum analysis (SSA). The method uncovers change points related with trends and periodicities. The potential of the proposed method is demonstrated by analysing simple model time series including linear functions and sine functions as well as real world data (precipitation data in Kenya). A statistical test of the results is proposed based on a Monte Carlo simulation with surrogate methods. As a result, the successful estimation of change points as inherent properties in the representative time series of both trend and harmonics is shown. With regards to the application, we find change points in the precipitation data of Kenyan towns (Nakuru, Naivasha, Narok, and Kisumu) which coincide with the variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) suggesting its impact of extreme climate in East Africa.
Changes in rainfall interception along a secondary forest succession gradient in lowland Panama
(2013)
Secondary forests are rapidly expanding in tropical regions. Yet, despite the importance of understanding the hydrological consequences of land-cover dynamics, the relationship between forest succession and canopy interception is poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is unfortunate because rainfall interception plays an important role in regional water cycles and needs to be quantified for many modeling purposes. To help close this knowledge gap, we designed a throughfall monitoring study along a secondary succession gradient in a tropical forest region of Panama. The investigated gradient comprised 20 forest patches 3 to 130 yr old. We sampled each patch with a minimum of 20 funnel-type throughfall collectors over a continuous 2month period that had nearly 900 mm of rain. During the same period, we acquired forest inventory data and derived several forest structural attributes. We then applied simple and multiple regression models (Bayesian model averaging, BMA) and identified those vegetation parameters that had the strongest influence on the variation of canopy interception. Our analyses yielded three main findings. First, canopy interception changed rapidly during forest succession. After only a decade, throughfall volumes approached levels that are typical for mature forests. Second, a parsimonious (simple linear regression) model based on the ratio of the basal area of small stems to the total basal area outperformed more complex multivariate models (BMA approach). Third, based on complementary forest inventory data, we show that the influence of young secondary forests on interception in realworld fragmented landscapes might be detectable only in regions with a substantial fraction of young forests. Our re-sults suggest that where entire catchments undergo forest regrowth, initial stages of succession may be associated with a substantial decrease of streamflow generation. Our results further highlight the need to study hydrological processes in all forest succession stages, including early ones.
Sophisticated methods have been developed and become standard in analysing floods as well as for assessing flood risk. However, increasingly critique of the current standards and scientific practice can be found both in the flood hydrology community as well as in the risk community who argue that the considerable amount of information already available on natural disasters has not been adequately deployed and brought to effective use. We describe this phenomenon as a failure to synthesize knowledge that results from barriers and ignorance in awareness, use and management of the entire spectrum of relevant content, that is, data, information and knowledge. In this paper we argue that the scientific community in flood risk research ignores event-specific analysis and documentations as another source of data. We present results from a systematic search that includes an intensive study on sources and ways of information dissemination of flood-relevant publications. We obtain 186 documents that contain information on the sources, pathways, receptors and/or consequences for any of the 40 strongest trans-basin floods in Germany in the period 1952-2002. This study therefore provides the most comprehensive metadata collection of flood documentations for the considered geographical space and period. A total of 87.5% of all events have been documented, and especially the most severe floods have received extensive coverage. Only 30% of the material has been produced in the scientific/academic environment, and the majority of all documents (about 80%) can be considered grey literature (i.e. literature not controlled by commercial publishers). Therefore, ignoring grey sources in flood research also means ignoring the largest part of knowledge available on single flood events (in Germany). Further, the results of this study underpin the rapid changes in information dissemination of flood event literature over the last decade. We discuss the options and obstacles of incorporating this data into the knowledge-building process in light of the current technological developments and international, interdisciplinary debates for data curation.
Increases in animal products consumption and the associated environmental consequences have been a matter of scientific debate for decades. Consequences of such increases include rises in greenhouse gas emissions, growth of consumptive water use, and perturbation of global nutrients cycles. These consequences vary spatially depending on livestock types, their densities and their production system. In this letter, we investigate the spatial distribution of embodied crop calories in animal products. On a global scale, about 40% of the global crop calories are used as livestock feed (we refer to this ratio as crop balance for livestock) and about 4 kcal of crop products are used to generate 1 kcal of animal products (embodied crop calories of around 4). However, these values vary greatly around the world. In some regions, more than 100% of the crops produced is required to feed livestock requiring national or international trade to meet the deficit in livestock feed. Embodied crop calories vary between less than 1 for 20% of the livestock raising areas worldwide and greater than 10 for another 20% of the regions. Low values of embodied crop calories are related to production systems for ruminants based on fodder and forage, while large values are usually associated with production systems for non-ruminants fed on crop products. Additionally, we project the future feed demand considering three scenarios: (a) population growth, (b) population growth and changes in human dietary patterns and (c) changes in population, dietary patterns and feed conversion efficiency. When considering dietary changes, we project the global feed demand to be almost doubled (1.8-2.3 times) by 2050 compared to 2000, which would force us to produce almost equal or even more crops to raise our livestock than to directly nourish ourselves in the future. Feed demand is expected to increase over proportionally in Africa, South-Eastern Asia and Southern Asia, putting additional stress on these regions.
Changing food consumption patterns and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been a matter of scientific debate for decades. The agricultural sector is one of the major GHG emitters and thus holds a large potential for climate change mitigation through optimal management and dietary changes. We assess this potential, project emissions, and investigate dietary patterns and their changes globally on a per country basis between 1961 and 2007. Sixteen representative and spatially differentiated patterns with a per capita calorie intake ranging from 1,870 to >3,400 kcal/day were derived. Detailed analyses show that low calorie diets are decreasing worldwide, while in parallel diet composition is changing as well: a discernable shift towards more balanced diets in developing countries can be observed and steps towards more meat rich diets as a typical characteristics in developed countries. Low calorie diets which are mainly observable in developing countries show a similar emission burden than moderate and high calorie diets. This can be explained by a less efficient calorie production per unit of GHG emissions in developing countries. Very high calorie diets are common in the developed world and exhibit high total per capita emissions of 3.7-6.1 kg CO2eq./day due to high carbon intensity and high intake of animal products. In case of an unbridled demographic growth and changing dietary patterns the projected emissions from agriculture will approach 20 Gt CO2eq./yr by 2050.
The Tuz Golu Basin is the largest sedimentary depression located at the center of the Central Anatolian Plateau, an extensive, low-relief region with elevations of ca. 1 km located between the Pontide and Tauride mountains. Presently, the basin morphology and sedimentation processes are mainly controlled by the extensional Tuz Golu Fault Zone in the east and the transtensional Inonu-Eskisehir Fault System in the west. The purpose of this study is to contribute to the understanding of the Plio-Quaternary deformation history and to refine the timing of the latest extensional phase of the Tuz Golu Basin. Field observations, kinematic analyses, interpretations of seismic reflection lines, and Ar-40/Ar-39 dating of a key ignimbrite layer suggest that a regional phase of NNW-SSE to NE-SW contraction ended by 6.81 +/- 0.24 Ma and was followed by N-S to NE-SW extension during the Pliocene-Quaternary periods. Based on sedimentological and chronostratigraphic markers, the average vertical displacement rates over the past 5 or 3 Ma with respect to the central part of Tuz Golu Lake are 0.03 to 0.05 mm/year for the fault system at the western flank of the basin and 0.08 to 0.13 mm/year at the eastern flank. Paleo-shorelines of the Tuz Golu Lake, vestiges of higher lake levels related to Quaternary climate change, are important strain markers and were formed during Last Glacial Maximum conditions as indicated by a radiocarbon age of 21.8 +/- 0.4 ka BP obtained from a stromatolitic crust. Geomorphic observations and deformed lacustrine shorelines suggest that the main strand of the Tuz Golu Fault Zone straddling the foothills of the Sereflikochisar-Aksaray range has not been active during the Holocene. Instead, deformation appears to have migrated towards the interior of the basin along an offshore fault that runs immediately west of Sereflikochisar Peninsula. This basinward migration of deformation is probably associated with various processes acting at the lithospheric scale, such as plateau uplift and/or microplate extrusion.
The spatial and temporal variability of a low-centred polygon on the eastern floodplain area of the lower Anabar River (72.070 degrees N, 113.921 degrees E; northern Yakutia, Siberia) has been investigated using a multi-method approach. The present-day vegetation in each square metre was analysed, revealing a community of Larix, shrubby Betula, and Salix on the polygon rim, a dominance of Carex and Andromeda polifolia in the rim-to-pond transition zone, and a predominantly monospecific Scorpidium scorpioides coverage within the pond. The total organic carbon (TOC) content, TOC/TN (total nitrogen) ratio, grain size, vascular plant macrofossils, moss remains, diatoms, and pollen were analysed for two vertical sections and a sediment core from a transect across the polygon. Radiocarbon dating indicates that the formation of the polygon started at least 1500 yr ago; the general positions of the pond and rim have not changed since that time. Two types of pond vegetation were identified, indicating two contrasting development stages of the polygon. The first was a well-established moss association, dominated by submerged or floating Scorpidium scorpioides and/or Drepanocladus spp. and overgrown by epiphytic diatoms such as Tabellaria flocculosa and Eunotia taxa. This stage coincides temporally with a period in which the polygon was only drained by lateral subsurface water flow, as indicated by mixed grain sizes. A different moss association occurred during times of repeated river flooding (indicated by homogeneous medium-grained sand that probably accumulated during the annual spring snowmelt), characterized by an abundance of Meesia triquetra and a dominance of benthic diatoms (e. g. Navicula vulpina), indicative of a relatively high pH and a high tolerance of disturbance. A comparison of the local polygon vegetation (inferred from moss and macrofossil spectra) with the regional vegetation (inferred from pollen spectra) indicated that the moss association with Scorpidium scorpioides became established during relatively favourable climatic conditions, while the association dominated by Meesia triquetra occurred during periods of harsh climatic conditions. Our study revealed a strong riverine influence (in addition to climatic influences) on polygon development and the type of peat accumulated.
Background: Short lived, iteroparous animals in seasonal environments experience variable social and environmental conditions over their lifetime. Animals can be divided into those with a "young-of-the-year" life history (YY, reproducing and dying in the summer of birth) and an "overwinter" life history (OW, overwintering in a subadult state before reproducing next spring).
We investigated how behavioural patterns across the population were affected by season and sex, and whether variation in behaviour reflects the variation in life history patterns of each season. Applications of pace-of-life (POL) theory would suggest that long-lived OW animals are shyer in order to increase survival, and YY are bolder in order to increase reproduction. Therefore, we expected that in winter and spring samples, when only OW can be sampled, the animals should be shyer than in summer and autumn, when both OW and YY animals can be sampled. We studied common vole (Microtus arvalis) populations, which express typical, intra-annual density fluctuation. We captured a total of 492 voles at different months over 3 years and examined boldness and activity level with two standardised behavioural experiments.
Results: Behavioural variables of the two tests were correlated with each other. Boldness, measured as short latencies in both tests, was extremely high in spring compared to other seasons. Activity level was highest in spring and summer, and higher in males than in females.
Conclusion: Being bold in laboratory tests may translate into higher risk-taking in nature by being more mobile while seeking out partners or valuable territories. Possible explanations include asset-protection, with OW animals being rather old with low residual reproductive value in spring. Therefore, OW may take higher risks during this season. Offspring born in spring encounter a lower population density and may have higher reproductive value than offspring of later cohorts. A constant connection between life history and animal personality, as suggested by the POL theory, however, was not found. Nevertheless, correlations of traits suggest the existence of animal personalities. In conclusion, complex patterns of population dynamics, seasonal variation in life histories, and variability of behaviour due to asset-protection may cause complex seasonal behavioural dynamics in a population.
The relevance of biological Si cycling for dissolved silica (DSi) export from terrestrial biogeosystems is still in debate. Even in systems showing a high content of weatherable minerals, like Cambisols on volcanic tuff, biogenic Si (BSi) might contribute > 50% to DSi (Gerard et al., 2008). However, the number of biogeosystem studies is rather limited for generalized conclusions. To cover one end of controlling factors on DSi, i.e., weatherable minerals content, we studied a forested site with absolute quartz dominance (> 95 %). Here we hypothesise minimal effects of chemical weathering of silicates on DSi. During a four year observation period (05/2007-04/2011), we quantified (i) internal and external Si fluxes of a temperate-humid biogeosystem (beech, 120 yr) by BIOME-BGC (version ZALF), (ii) related Si budgets, and (iii) Si pools in soil and beech, chemically as well as by SEM-EDX. For the first time two compartments of biogenic Si in soils were analysed, i.e., phytogenic and zoogenic Si pool (testate amoebae). We quantified an average Si plant uptake of 35 kg Si ha(-1) yr(-1) - most of which is recycled to the soil by litterfall - and calculated an annual biosilicification from idiosomic testate amoebae of 17 kg Si ha(-1). The comparatively high DSi concentrations (6 mg L-1) and DSi exports (12 kg Si ha(-1) yr(-1)) could not be explained by chemical weathering of feldspars or quartz dissolution. Instead, dissolution of a relictic, phytogenic Si pool seems to be the main process for the DSi observed. We identified canopy closure accompanied by a disappearance of grasses as well as the selective extraction of pine trees 30 yr ago as the most probable control for the phenomena observed. From our results we concluded the biogeosystem to be in a transient state in terms of Si cycling.