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Seismic wide-angle data were collected along a 40-km-long profile centered at the geothermal research well GrSk 3/90 in the Northeast German Basin. Tomographic inversion of travel time data provided a velocity and a vertical velocity gradient model, indicative of Cenozoic to Pre-Permian sediments. Wide-angle reflections are modeled and interpreted as top Zechstein and top Pre-Permian. Changes in velocity gradients are interpreted as the transition from mechanical to chemical compaction at 2-3 km depth, and localized salt structures are imaged, suggesting a previously unknown salt pillow in the southern part of the seismic profile. The Zechstein salt shows decreased velocities in the adjacent salt pillows compared to the salt lows, which is confirmed by sonic log data. This decrease in velocity could be explained by the mobilization of less dense salt, which moved and formed the salt pillows, whereas the denser salt remained in place at the salt lows. We interpret a narrow subvertical low-velocity zone under the salt pillow at GrSk 3/ 90 as a fault in the deep Permian to Pre-Permian. This WNW-ESE trending fault influenced the location of the salt tectonics and led to the formation of a fault-bounded graben in the Rotliegend sandstones with optimal mechanical conditions for geothermal production. Thermal modeling showed that salt pillows are related to chimney effects, a decrease in temperature, and increasing velocity. The assumed variations in salt lithology, density, and strain must thus be even higher to compensate for the temperature effect.
Mental disorders are among the greatest medical and social challenges facing us. They can occur at all stages of life and are among the most important commonly occurring diseases. In Germany 28 % of the population suffer from a mental disorder every year, while the lifetime risk of suffering from a mental disorder is almost 50 %. Mental disorders cause great suffering for those affected and their social network. Quantitatively speaking, they can be considered to be among those diseases creating the greatest burden for society due to reduced productivity, absence from work and premature retirement. The Federal Ministry of Education and Research is funding a new research network from 2015 to 2019 with up to 35 million euros to investigate mental disorders in order to devise and develop better therapeutic measures and strategies for this population by means of basic and translational clinical research. This is the result of a competitive call for research proposals entitled research network for mental diseases. It is a nationwide network of nine consortia with up to ten psychiatric and clinical psychology partner institutions from largely university-based research facilities for adults and/or children and adolescents. Furthermore, three cross-consortia platform projects will seek to identify shared causes of diseases and new diagnostic modalities for anxiety disorders, attention deficit hyperactivity disorders (ADHS), autism, bipolar disorders, depression, schizophrenia and psychotic disorders as well as substance-related and addictive disorders. The spectrum of therapeutic approaches to be examined ranges from innovative pharmacological and psychotherapeutic treatment to novel brain stimulation procedures. In light of the enormous burden such diseases represent for society as a whole, a sustainable improvement in the financial support for those researching mental disorders seems essential. This network aims to become a nucleus for long overdue and sustained support for a German center for mental disorders.
To address one of the central questions of plate tectonics-How do large transform systems work and what are their typical features?-seismic investigations across the Dead Sea Transform (DST), the boundary between the African and Arabian plates in the Middle East, were conducted for the first time. A major component of these investigations was a combined reflection/ refraction survey across the territories of Palestine, Israel and Jordan. The main results of this study are: (1) The seismic basement is offset by 3-5 km under the DST, (2) The DST cuts through the entire crust, broadening in the lower crust, (3) Strong lower crustal reflectors are imaged only on one side of the DST, (4) The seismic velocity sections show a steady increase in the depth of the crust-mantle transition (Moho) from 26 km at the Mediterranean to 39 km under the Jordan highlands, with only a small but visible, asymmetric topography of the Moho under the DST. These observations can be linked to the left-lateral movement of 105 km of the two plates in the last 17 Myr, accompanied by strong deformation within a narrow zone cutting through the entire crust. Comparing the DST and the San Andreas Fault (SAF) system, a strong asymmetry in subhorizontal lower crustal reflectors and a deep reaching deformation zone both occur around the DST and the SAF. The fact that such lower crustal reflectors and deep deformation zones are observed in such different transform systems suggests that these structures are possibly fundamental features of large transform plate boundaries
Aims:
Although risk scores to predict type 2 diabetes exist, cost-effectiveness of risk thresholds to target prevention interventions are unknown. We applied cost-effectiveness analysis to identify optimal thresholds of predicted risk to target a low-cost community-based intervention in the USA.
Methods:
We used a validated Markov-based type 2 diabetes simulation model to evaluate the lifetime cost-effectiveness of alternative thresholds of diabetes risk. Population characteristics for the model were obtained from NHANES 2001-2004 and incidence rates and performance of two noninvasive diabetes risk scores (German diabetes risk score, GDRS, and ARIC 2009 score) were determined in the ARIC and Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for increasing risk score thresholds. Two scenarios were assumed: 1-stage (risk score only) and 2-stage (risk score plus fasting plasma glucose (FPG) test (threshold 100 mg/dl) in the high-risk group).
Results:
In ARIC and CHS combined, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the GDRS and the ARIC 2009 score were 0.691 (0.677-0.704) and 0.720 (0.707-0.732), respectively. The optimal threshold of predicted diabetes risk (ICER < $50,000/QALY gained in case of intervention in those above the threshold) was 7% for the GDRS and 9% for the ARIC 2009 score. In the 2-stage scenario, ICERs for all cutoffs >= 5% were below $50,000/QALY gained.
Conclusions:
Intervening in those with >= 7% diabetes risk based on the GDRS or >= 9% on the ARIC 2009 score would be cost-effective. A risk score threshold >= 5% together with elevated FPG would also allow targeting interventions cost-effectively.
A key question for the development of geothermal plants is the seismic detection and monitoring of fluid injections at several kilometers depth. The detection and monitoring limits are controlled by several parameters, for example, the strength of seismic sources, number of receivers, vertical stacking, and noise conditions. For a known reference reflector at 2.66 km depth at a geothermal site in northern Germany the results of a simple surface seismic experiment were therefore combined with numerical forward modeling for different injection scenarios at 3.8 km depth. The underlying idea is that changes of reflectivity from the injection at 3.8 km must be larger than the variance of the measurements to be observable. Assuming that the injection at 3.8 km depth would produce a subhorizontal disklike target with a fracture porosity of 2% or 5% (the critical porosity) the water injection volume has to be at least 443 and 115 m(3), respectively, to be detectable from the surface. If the injection on the other hand does not create subhorizontal but subvertical pathways or only reduces the seismic velocities via the increased pore pressure in the immediate vicinity of the bore hole, the injection is undetectable from the surface. The most promising approach is therefore to move sources and/or receivers closer to the target, that is, the use of borehole instrumentation
Reductions in river discharge (water availability) like those from climate change or increased water withdrawal, reduce freshwater biodiversity. We combined two scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change with a global hydrological model to build global scenarios of future losses in river discharge from climate change and increased water withdrawal. Applying these results to known relationships between fish species and discharge, we build scenarios of losses (at equilibrium) of riverine fish richness. In rivers with reduced discharge, up to 75% (quartile range 4-22%) of local fish biodiversity would be headed toward extinction by 2070 because of combined changes in climate and water consumption. Fish loss in the scenarios fell disproportionately on poor countries. Reductions in water consumption could prevent many of the extinctions in these scenarios
Incorporating photochromic molecules into organic/inorganic hybrid materials may lead to photoresponsive systems. In such systems, the second-order nonlinear properties can be controlled via external stimulation with light at an appropriate wavelength. By creating photochromic molecular switches containing self-assembled monolayers on Si(111), we can demonstrate efficient reversible switching, which is accompanied by a pronounced modulation of the nonlinear optical (NLO) response of the system. The concept of utilizing functionalized photoswitchable Si surfaces could be a way for the generation of two-dimensional NLO switching materials, which are promising for applications in photonic and optoelectronic devices.