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An exceptionally strong stationary planetary wave with Zonal Wavenumber 1 led to a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in the Southern Hemisphere in September 2019. Ionospheric data from European Space Agency's Swarm satellite constellation mission show prominent 6-day variations in the dayside low-latitude region at this time, which can be attributed to forcing from the middle atmosphere by the Rossby normal mode "quasi-6-day wave" (Q6DW). Geopotential height measurements by the Microwave Limb Sounder aboard National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Aura satellite reveal a burst of global Q6DW activity in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere during the SSW, which is one of the strongest in the record. The Q6DW is apparently generated in the polar stratosphere at 30-40 km, where the atmosphere is unstable due to strong vertical wind shear connected with planetary wave breaking. These results suggest that an Antarctic SSW can lead to ionospheric variability through wave forcing from the middle atmosphere.
Plain Language Summary: A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is an extreme wintertime polar meteorological phenomenon occurring mostly over the Arctic region. Studies have shown that Arctic SSW can influence the entire atmosphere. In September 2019, a rare SSW event occurred in the Antarctic region, providing an opportunity to investigate its broader impact on the whole atmosphere. We present observations from the middle atmosphere and ionosphere during this event, noting unusually strong wave activity throughout this region. Our results suggest that an Antarctic SSW can have a significant impact on the whole atmosphere system similar to those due to Arctic events.
An exceptionally strong stationary planetary wave with Zonal Wavenumber 1 led to a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in the Southern Hemisphere in September 2019. Ionospheric data from European Space Agency's Swarm satellite constellation mission show prominent 6-day variations in the dayside low-latitude region at this time, which can be attributed to forcing from the middle atmosphere by the Rossby normal mode "quasi-6-day wave" (Q6DW). Geopotential height measurements by the Microwave Limb Sounder aboard National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Aura satellite reveal a burst of global Q6DW activity in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere during the SSW, which is one of the strongest in the record. The Q6DW is apparently generated in the polar stratosphere at 30-40 km, where the atmosphere is unstable due to strong vertical wind shear connected with planetary wave breaking. These results suggest that an Antarctic SSW can lead to ionospheric variability through wave forcing from the middle atmosphere.
Plain Language Summary: A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is an extreme wintertime polar meteorological phenomenon occurring mostly over the Arctic region. Studies have shown that Arctic SSW can influence the entire atmosphere. In September 2019, a rare SSW event occurred in the Antarctic region, providing an opportunity to investigate its broader impact on the whole atmosphere. We present observations from the middle atmosphere and ionosphere during this event, noting unusually strong wave activity throughout this region. Our results suggest that an Antarctic SSW can have a significant impact on the whole atmosphere system similar to those due to Arctic events.
Content: Synopsis The Attitudes toward Rape Victims Scale: Psychometric Data from 14 Countries Scale Construction and Validation - Study One: Preliminary Analyses - Study Two: Test-Retest Reliability - Study Three: Construct Validity Cross-cultural Extensions - United States - United Kingdom - Germany - New Zealand - Canada - West Indies - Israel - Turkey - India - Hong Kong - Malaysia - Zimbabwe - Mexico - Metric Equivalence Discussion
We report the discovery of an unidentified, extended source of very-high-energy gamma-ray emission, VER J2019+407, within the radio shell of the supernova remnant SNR G78.2+2.1, using 21.4 hr of data taken by the VERITAS gamma-ray observatory in 2009. These data confirm the preliminary indications of gamma-ray emission previously seen in a two-year (2007-2009) blind survey of the Cygnus region by VERITAS. VER J2019+407, which is detected at a post-trials significance of 7.5 standard deviations in the 2009 data, is localized to the northwestern rim of the remnant in a region of enhanced radio and X-ray emission. It has an intrinsic extent of 0 degrees.23 +/- 0 degrees.03(stat-0 degrees.02sys)(+0 degrees.04) and its spectrum is well-characterized by a differential power law (dN/dE = N-0 x (E/TeV)-Gamma) with a photon index of Gamma = 2.37 +/- 0.14(stat) +/- 0.20(sys) and a flux normalization of N-0 = 1.5 +/- 0.2(stat) +/- 0.4(sys) x 10(-12) photon TeV-1 cm(-2) s(-1). This yields an integral flux of 5.2 +/- 0.8(stat) +/- 1.4(sys) x 10(-12) photon cm(-2) s(-1) above 320 GeV, corresponding to 3.7% of the Crab Nebula flux. We consider the relationship of the TeV gamma-ray emission with the GeV gamma-ray emission seen from SNR G78.2+2.1 as well as that seen from a nearby cocoon of freshly accelerated cosmic rays. Multiple scenarios are considered as possible origins for the TeV gamma-ray emission, including hadronic particle acceleration at the SNR shock.
Question: How can we disentangle facilitation and seed dispersal from environmental heterogeneity as mechanisms causing spatial associations of plant species?
Location: Semi-arid savanna in the Kimberley Thorn Bushveld, South Africa.
Methods: We developed a two-step protocol for the statistical differentiation of association-promoting mechanisms in plants based on the Acacia erioloba-Grewia flava association. Individuals of the savanna shrub G. flava and the tree A. erioloba were mapped on four study plots. Disentangling the mechanism causing the association of G. flava and A. erioloba involved tests of three spatial and one non-spatial null model. The spatial null models include homogeneous and heterogeneous Poisson processes for spatial randomness based on the bivariate spatial point patterns of the four plots. With the non-spatial analysis, we determined the relationship between the canopy diameter of A. erioloba trees and presence or absence of G. flava shrubs in the tree understorey to find whether shrub presence requires a minimum tree canopy diameter.
Results: We first showed a significant positive spatial association of the two species. Thereafter, the non-spatial analysis supported an exclusion of environmental heterogeneity as the sole cause of this positive association. We found a minimum tree size under which no G. flava shrubs occurred.
Conclusions: Our two-step analysis showed that it is unlikely that heterogeneous environmental conditions caused the spatial association of A. erioloba and G. flava. Instead, this association may have been caused by seed dispersal and/or facilitation (e.g. caused by hydraulic lift and/or nitrogen fixation by the host tree).
EVR-CB-001: An Evolving, Progenitor, White Dwarf Compact Binary Discovered with the Evryscope
(2019)
We present EVR-CB-001, the discovery of a compact binary with an extremely low-mass (0.21 +/- 0.05M(circle dot)) helium core white dwarf progenitor (pre-He WD) and an unseen low-mass (0.32 +/- 0.06M(circle dot)) helium white dwarf (He WD) companion. He WDs are thought to evolve from the remnant helium-rich core of a main-sequence star stripped during the giant phase by a close companion. Low-mass He WDs are exotic objects (only about 0.2% of WDs are thought to be less than 0.3 M-circle dot), and are expected to be found in compact binaries. Pre-He WDs are even rarer, and occupy the intermediate phase after the core is stripped, but before the star becomes a fully degenerate WD and with a larger radius (approximate to 0.2R(circle dot)) than a typical WD. The primary component of EVR-CB-001 (the pre-He WD) was originally thought to be a hot subdwarf (sdB) star from its blue color and under-luminous magnitude, characteristic of sdBs. The mass, temperature (T-eff = 18,500 +/- 500 K), and surface gravity (log(g) = 4.96 +/- 0.04) solutions from this work are lower than values for typical hot subdwarfs. The primary is likely to be a post-red-giant branch, pre-He WD contracting into a He WD, and at a stage that places it nearest to sdBs on color-magnitude and T-eff-log(g) diagrams. EVR-CB-001 is expected to evolve into a fully double degenerate, compact system that should spin down and potentially evolve into a single hot subdwarf star. Single hot subdwarfs are observed, but progenitor systems have been elusive.
Question: Is there a relationship between size and death in the Iona-lived, deep-rooted tree, Acacia erioloba, in a semi-arid savanna? What is the size-class distribution of A. erioloba mortality? Does the mortality distribution differ from total tree size distribution? Does A. erioloba mortality distribution match the mortality distributions recorded thus far in other environments? Location: Dronfield Ranch, near Kimberley, Kalahari, South Africa. Methods: A combination of aerial photographs and a satellite image covering 61 year was used to provide long-term spatial data on mortality. We used aerial photographs of the study area from 1940, 1964, 1984, 1993 and a satellite image from 2001 to follow three plots covering 510 ha. We were able to identify and individually follow ca. 3000 individual trees from 1940 till 2001. Results: The total number of trees increased over time. No relationship between total number of trees and mean tree size was detected. There were no trends over time in total number of deaths per plot or in size distributions of dead trees. Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests showed no differences in size class distributions for living trees through time. The size distribution of dead trees was significantly different from the size distribution of all trees present on the plots. Overall, the number of dead trees was low in small size classes, reached a peak value when canopy area was 20 - 30 m(2), and declined in lamer size-classes. Mortality as a ratio of dead vs. total trees peaked at intermediate canopy sizes too. Conclusion: A. erioloba mortality was size-dependent, peaking at intermediate sizes. The mortality distribution differs from all other tree mortality distributions recorded thus far. We suggest that a possible mechanism for this unusual mortality distribution is intraspecific competition for water in this semi-arid environment.
Flood estimation and flood management have traditionally been the domain of hydrologists, water resources engineers and statisticians, and disciplinary approaches abound. Dominant views have been shaped; one example is the catchment perspective: floods are formed and influenced by the interaction of local, catchment-specific characteristics, such as meteorology, topography and geology. These traditional views have been beneficial, but they have a narrow framing. In this paper we contrast traditional views with broader perspectives that are emerging from an improved understanding of the climatic context of floods. We come to the following conclusions: (1) extending the traditional system boundaries (local catchment, recent decades, hydrological/hydraulic processes) opens up exciting possibilities for better understanding and improved tools for flood risk assessment and management. (2) Statistical approaches in flood estimation need to be complemented by the search for the causal mechanisms and dominant processes in the atmosphere, catchment and river system that leave their fingerprints on flood characteristics. (3) Natural climate variability leads to time-varying flood characteristics, and this variation may be partially quantifiable and predictable, with the perspective of dynamic, climate-informed flood risk management. (4) Efforts are needed to fully account for factors that contribute to changes in all three risk components (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) and to better understand the interactions between society and floods. (5) Given the global scale and societal importance, we call for the organization of an international multidisciplinary collaboration and data-sharing initiative to further understand the links between climate and flooding and to advance flood research.
Adaptation to flood risk
(2017)
As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers of changes in risk is essential for effective adaptation. To gain more knowledge on the basis of empirical case studies, we analyze eight paired floods, that is, consecutive flood events that occurred in the same region, with the second flood causing significantly lower damage. These success stories of risk reduction were selected across different socioeconomic and hydro-climatic contexts. The potential of societies to adapt is uncovered by describing triggered societal changes, as well as formal measures and spontaneous processes that reduced flood risk. This novel approach has the potential to build the basis for an international data collection and analysis effort to better understand and attribute changes in risk due to hydrological extremes in the framework of the IAHSs Panta Rhei initiative. Across all case studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability, for example, via raised risk awareness, preparedness, and improvements of organizational emergency management. Thus, vulnerability reduction plays an essential role for successful adaptation. Our work shows that there is a high potential to adapt, but there remains the challenge to stimulate measures that reduce vulnerability and risk in periods in which extreme events do not occur.
Background Uptake of self-testing and self-management of oral coagulation has remained inconsistent, despite good evidence of their effectiveness. To clarify the value of self-monitoring of oral anticoagulation, we did a meta-analysis of individual patient data addressing several important gaps in the evidence, including an estimate of the effect on time to death, first major haemorrhage, and thromboembolism.
Methods We searched Ovid versions of Embase (1980-2009) and Medline (1966-2009), limiting searches to randomised trials with a maximally sensitive strategy. We approached all authors of included trials and requested individual patient data: primary outcomes were time to death, first major haemorrhage, and first thromboembolic event. We did prespecified subgroup analyses according to age, type of control-group care (anticoagulation-clinic care vs primary care), self-testing alone versus self-management, and sex. We analysed patients with mechanical heart valves or atrial fibrillation separately. We used a random-effect model method to calculate pooled hazard ratios and did tests for interaction and heterogeneity, and calculated a time-specific number needed to treat.
Findings Of 1357 abstracts, we included 11 trials with data for 6417 participants and 12 800 person-years of follow-up. We reported a significant reduction in thromboembolic events in the self-monitoring group (hazard ratio 0.51; 95% CI 0.31-0.85) but not for major haemorrhagic events (0.88, 0.74-1.06) or death (0.82, 0.62-1.09). Participants younger than 55 years showed a striking reduction in thrombotic events (hazard ratio 0.33, 95% CI 0.17-0.66), as did participants with mechanical heart valve (0.52, 0.35-0.77). Analysis of major outcomes in the very elderly (age >= 85 years, n=99) showed no significant adverse effects of the intervention for all outcomes.
Interpretation Our analysis showed that self-monitoring and self-management of oral coagulation is a safe option for suitable patients of all ages. Patients should also be offered the option to self-manage their disease with suitable health-care support as back-up.