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A catalog of genetic loci associated with kidney function from analyses of a million individuals
(2019)
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is responsible for a public health burden with multi-systemic complications. Through transancestry meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and independent replication (n = 1,046,070), we identified 264 associated loci (166 new). Of these,147 were likely to be relevant for kidney function on the basis of associations with the alternative kidney function marker blood urea nitrogen (n = 416,178). Pathway and enrichment analyses, including mouse models with renal phenotypes, support the kidney as the main target organ. A genetic risk score for lower eGFR was associated with clinically diagnosed CKD in 452,264 independent individuals. Colocalization analyses of associations with eGFR among 783,978 European-ancestry individuals and gene expression across 46 human tissues, including tubulo-interstitial and glomerular kidney compartments, identified 17 genes differentially expressed in kidney. Fine-mapping highlighted missense driver variants in 11 genes and kidney-specific regulatory variants. These results provide a comprehensive priority list of molecular targets for translational research.
Background:
COVID-19 has infected millions of people worldwide and is responsible for several hundred thousand fatalities. The COVID-19 pandemic has necessitated thoughtful resource allocation and early identification of high-risk patients. However, effective methods to meet these needs are lacking.
Objective:
The aims of this study were to analyze the electronic health records (EHRs) of patients who tested positive for COVID-19 and were admitted to hospitals in the Mount Sinai Health System in New York City; to develop machine learning models for making predictions about the hospital course of the patients over clinically meaningful time horizons based on patient characteristics at admission; and to assess the performance of these models at multiple hospitals and time points.
Methods:
We used Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and baseline comparator models to predict in-hospital mortality and critical events at time windows of 3, 5, 7, and 10 days from admission. Our study population included harmonized EHR data from five hospitals in New York City for 4098 COVID-19-positive patients admitted from March 15 to May 22, 2020. The models were first trained on patients from a single hospital (n=1514) before or on May 1, externally validated on patients from four other hospitals (n=2201) before or on May 1, and prospectively validated on all patients after May 1 (n=383). Finally, we established model interpretability to identify and rank variables that drive model predictions.
Results:
Upon cross-validation, the XGBoost classifier outperformed baseline models, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) for mortality of 0.89 at 3 days, 0.85 at 5 and 7 days, and 0.84 at 10 days. XGBoost also performed well for critical event prediction, with an AUC-ROC of 0.80 at 3 days, 0.79 at 5 days, 0.80 at 7 days, and 0.81 at 10 days. In external validation, XGBoost achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.88 at 3 days, 0.86 at 5 days, 0.86 at 7 days, and 0.84 at 10 days for mortality prediction. Similarly, the unimputed XGBoost model achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.78 at 3 days, 0.79 at 5 days, 0.80 at 7 days, and 0.81 at 10 days. Trends in performance on prospective validation sets were similar. At 7 days, acute kidney injury on admission, elevated LDH, tachypnea, and hyperglycemia were the strongest drivers of critical event prediction, while higher age, anion gap, and C-reactive protein were the strongest drivers of mortality prediction.
Conclusions:
We externally and prospectively trained and validated machine learning models for mortality and critical events for patients with COVID-19 at different time horizons. These models identified at-risk patients and uncovered underlying relationships that predicted outcomes.
River ecosystems receive and process vast quantities of terrestrial organic carbon, the fate of which depends strongly on microbial activity. Variation in and controls of processing rates, however, are poorly characterized at the global scale. In response, we used a peer-sourced research network and a highly standardized carbon processing assay to conduct a global-scale field experiment in greater than 1000 river and riparian sites. We found that Earth’s biomes have distinct carbon processing signatures. Slow processing is evident across latitudes, whereas rapid rates are restricted to lower latitudes. Both the mean rate and variability decline with latitude, suggesting temperature constraints toward the poles and greater roles for other environmental drivers (e.g., nutrient loading) toward the equator. These results and data set the stage for unprecedented “next-generation biomonitoring” by establishing baselines to help quantify environmental impacts to the functioning of ecosystems at a global scale.
We report the discovery of an unidentified, extended source of very-high-energy gamma-ray emission, VER J2019+407, within the radio shell of the supernova remnant SNR G78.2+2.1, using 21.4 hr of data taken by the VERITAS gamma-ray observatory in 2009. These data confirm the preliminary indications of gamma-ray emission previously seen in a two-year (2007-2009) blind survey of the Cygnus region by VERITAS. VER J2019+407, which is detected at a post-trials significance of 7.5 standard deviations in the 2009 data, is localized to the northwestern rim of the remnant in a region of enhanced radio and X-ray emission. It has an intrinsic extent of 0 degrees.23 +/- 0 degrees.03(stat-0 degrees.02sys)(+0 degrees.04) and its spectrum is well-characterized by a differential power law (dN/dE = N-0 x (E/TeV)-Gamma) with a photon index of Gamma = 2.37 +/- 0.14(stat) +/- 0.20(sys) and a flux normalization of N-0 = 1.5 +/- 0.2(stat) +/- 0.4(sys) x 10(-12) photon TeV-1 cm(-2) s(-1). This yields an integral flux of 5.2 +/- 0.8(stat) +/- 1.4(sys) x 10(-12) photon cm(-2) s(-1) above 320 GeV, corresponding to 3.7% of the Crab Nebula flux. We consider the relationship of the TeV gamma-ray emission with the GeV gamma-ray emission seen from SNR G78.2+2.1 as well as that seen from a nearby cocoon of freshly accelerated cosmic rays. Multiple scenarios are considered as possible origins for the TeV gamma-ray emission, including hadronic particle acceleration at the SNR shock.
The "Lomonosov" space project is lead by Lomonosov Moscow State University in collaboration with the following key partners: Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Russia, University of California, Los Angeles (USA), University of Pueblo (Mexico), Sungkyunkwan University (Republic of Korea) and with Russian space industry organi-zations to study some of extreme phenomena in space related to astrophysics, astroparticle physics, space physics, and space biology. The primary goals of this experiment are to study: -Ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECR) in the energy range of the Greizen-ZatsepinKuzmin (GZK) cutoff; -Ultraviolet (UV) transient luminous events in the upper atmosphere; -Multi-wavelength study of gamma-ray bursts in visible, UV, gamma, and X-rays; -Energetic trapped and precipitated radiation (electrons and protons) at low-Earth orbit (LEO) in connection with global geomagnetic disturbances; -Multicomponent radiation doses along the orbit of spacecraft under different geomagnetic conditions and testing of space segments of optical observations of space-debris and other space objects; -Instrumental vestibular-sensor conflict of zero-gravity phenomena during space flight. This paper is directed towards the general description of both scientific goals of the project and scientific equipment on board the satellite. The following papers of this issue are devoted to detailed descriptions of scientific instruments.
The "Lomonosov" space project is lead by Lomonosov Moscow State University in collaboration with the following key partners: Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Russia, University of California, Los Angeles (USA), University of Pueblo (Mexico), Sungkyunkwan University (Republic of Korea) and with Russian space industry organi-zations to study some of extreme phenomena in space related to astrophysics, astroparticle physics, space physics, and space biology. The primary goals of this experiment are to study:
-Ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECR) in the energy range of the Greizen-ZatsepinKuzmin (GZK) cutoff;
-Ultraviolet (UV) transient luminous events in the upper atmosphere;
-Multi-wavelength study of gamma-ray bursts in visible, UV, gamma, and X-rays;
-Energetic trapped and precipitated radiation (electrons and protons) at low-Earth orbit (LEO) in connection with global geomagnetic disturbances;
-Multicomponent radiation doses along the orbit of spacecraft under different geomagnetic conditions and testing of space segments of optical observations of space-debris and other space objects;
-Instrumental vestibular-sensor conflict of zero-gravity phenomena during space flight.
This paper is directed towards the general description of both scientific goals of the project and scientific equipment on board the satellite. The following papers of this issue are devoted to detailed descriptions of scientific instruments.
Understanding the association between autonomic nervous system [ANS] function and brain morphology across the lifespan provides important insights into neurovisceral mechanisms underlying health and disease. Resting-state ANS activity, indexed by measures of heart rate [HR] and its variability [HRV] has been associated with brain morphology, particularly cortical thickness [CT]. While findings have been mixed regarding the anatomical distribution and direction of the associations, these inconsistencies may be due to sex and age differences in HR/HRV and CT. Previous studies have been limited by small sample sizes, which impede the assessment of sex differences and aging effects on the association between ANS function and CT. To overcome these limitations, 20 groups worldwide contributed data collected under similar protocols of CT assessment and HR/HRV recording to be pooled in a mega-analysis (N = 1,218 (50.5% female), mean age 36.7 years (range: 12-87)). Findings suggest a decline in HRV as well as CT with increasing age. CT, particularly in the orbitofrontal cortex, explained additional variance in HRV, beyond the effects of aging. This pattern of results may suggest that the decline in HRV with increasing age is related to a decline in orbitofrontal CT. These effects were independent of sex and specific to HRV; with no significant association between CT and HR. Greater CT across the adult lifespan may be vital for the maintenance of healthy cardiac regulation via the ANS-or greater cardiac vagal activity as indirectly reflected in HRV may slow brain atrophy. Findings reveal an important association between CT and cardiac parasympathetic activity with implications for healthy aging and longevity that should be studied further in longitudinal research.
Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey
(2020)
Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30-0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54-2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986-2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63-1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67-5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey
(2020)
Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30-0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54-2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986-2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63-1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67-5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
As the oldest known magnetic material, magnetite (Fe3O4) has fascinated mankind for millennia. As the first oxide in which a relationship between electrical conductivity and fluctuating/localized electronic order was shown(1), magnetite represents a model system for understanding correlated oxides in general. Nevertheless, the exact mechanism of the insulator-metal, or Verwey, transition has long remained inaccessible(2-8). Recently, three- Fe- site lattice distortions called trimeronswere identified as the characteristic building blocks of the low-temperature insulating electronically ordered phase(9). Here we investigate the Verwey transition with pump- probe X- ray diffraction and optical reflectivity techniques, and show how trimerons become mobile across the insulator-metal transition. We find this to be a two- step process. After an initial 300 fs destruction of individual trimerons, phase separation occurs on a 1.5 +/- 0.2 ps timescale to yield residual insulating and metallic regions. This work establishes the speed limit for switching in future oxide electronics(10).