Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.
Gilbert et al. conclude that evidence from the Open Science Collaboration’s Reproducibility Project: Psychology indicates high reproducibility, given the study methodology. Their very optimistic assessment is limited by statistical misconceptions and by causal inferences from selectively interpreted, correlational data. Using the Reproducibility Project: Psychology data, both optimistic and pessimistic conclusions about reproducibility are possible, and neither are yet warranted.
The emergence of drug resistance remains one of the most challenging issues in the treatment of HIV-1 infection. The extreme replication dynamics of HIV facilitates its escape from the selective pressure exerted by the human immune system and by the applied combination drug therapy. This article reviews computational methods whose combined use can support the design of optimal antiretroviral therapies based on viral genotypic and phenotypic data. Genotypic assays are based on the analysis of mutations associated with reduced drug susceptibility, but are difficult to interpret due to the numerous mutations and mutational patterns that confer drug resistance. Phenotypic resistance or susceptibility can be experimentally evaluated by measuring the inhibition of the viral replication in cell culture assays. However, this procedure is expensive and time consuming