90.00.00 GEOPHYSICS, ASTRONOMY, AND ASTROPHYSICS (for more detailed headings, see the Geophysics Appendix)
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Climate change affects societies across the globe in various ways. In addition to gradual changes in temperature and other climatic variables, global warming is likely to increase intensity and frequency of extreme weather events.
Beyond biophysical impacts, these also directly affect societal and economic activity. Additionally, indirect effects can occur; spatially, economic losses can spread along global supply-chains; temporally, climate impacts can change the economic development trajectory of countries.
This thesis first examines how climate change alters river flood risk and its local socio-economic implications. Then, it studies the global economic response to river floods in particular, and to climate change in general.
Changes in high-end river flood risk are calculated for the next three decades on a global scale with high spatial resolution. In order to account for uncertainties, this assessment makes use of an ensemble of climate and hydrological models as well as a river routing model, that is found to perform well regarding peak river discharge. The results show an increase in high-end flood risk in many parts of the world, which require profound adaptation efforts. This pressure to adapt is measured as the enhancement in protection level necessary to stay at historical high-end risk. In developing countries as well as in industrialized regions, a high pressure to adapt is observed - the former to increase low protection levels, the latter to maintain the low risk levels perceived in the past.
Further in this thesis, the global agent-based dynamic supply-chain model acclimate is developed. It models the cascading of indirect losses in the global supply network. As an anomaly model its agents - firms and consumers - maximize their profit locally to respond optimally to local perturbations. Incorporating quantities as well as prices on a daily basis, it is suitable to dynamically resolve the impacts of unanticipated climate extremes.
The model is further complemented by a static measure, which captures the inter-dependencies between sectors across regions that are only connected indirectly. These higher-order dependencies are shown to be important for a comprehensive assessment of loss-propagation and overall costs of local disasters.
In order to study the economic response to river floods, the acclimate model is driven by flood simulations. Within the next two decades, the increase in direct losses can only partially be compensated by market adjustments, and total losses are projected to increase by 17% without further adaptation efforts. The US and the EU are both shown to receive indirect losses from China, which is strongly affected directly. However, recent trends in the trade relations leave the EU in a better position to compensate for these losses.
Finally, this thesis takes a broader perspective when determining the investment response to the climate change damages employing the integrated assessment model DICE. On an optimal economic development path, the increase in damages is anticipated as emissions and consequently temperatures increase. This leads to a significant devaluation of investment returns and the income losses from climate damages almost double.
Overall, the results highlight the need to adapt to extreme weather events - local physical adaptation measures have to be combined with regional and global policy measures to prepare the global supply-chain network to climate change.
The Lombok Island is part of the Lesser Sunda Islands (LSI) region – Indonesia, situated along the Sunda-Banda Arcs transition. It lies between zones characterized by the highest intensity geomagnetic anomalies of this region, remarkable as one of the eight most important features provided on the 1st edition of World Digital Magnetic Anomaly Map. The seismicity of this region during the last years is high, while the geological and tectonic structures of this region are still not known in detail. Some local magnetic surveys have been conducted previously during 2004–2005. However, due to the lower accuracy of the used equipment and a limited number of stations, the qualities of the previous measurements are questionable for more interpretations. Thus a more detailed study to better characterize the geomagnetic anomaly -spatially and temporally- over this region and to deeply explore the related regional geology, tectonic and seismicity is needed. The intriguing geomagnetic anomalies over this island region vis-à-vis the socio-cultural situations lead to a study with a special aim to contribute to the assessment of the potential of natural hazards (earthquakes) as well as a new natural resource of energy (geothermal potential).
This study is intended to discuss several crucial questions, including:
i. The real values and the general pattern of magnetic anomalies over the island, as well as their relation to the regional one.
ii. Any temporal changes of regional anomalies over the recent time.
iii. The relationships between the anomalies and the geology and tectonic of this region, especially new insights that can be gained from the geomagnetic observations.
iv. The relationships between the anomalies and the high seismicity of this region, especially some possible links between their variations to the earthquake occurrence.
First, all available geomagnetic data of this region and results of the previous measurements are evaluated. The new geomagnetic surveys carried out in 2006 and 2007/2008 are then presented in detail, followed by the general description of data processing and data quality evaluation. The new results show the general pattern of contiguous negative-positive anomalies, revealing an active arc related subduction region. They agree with earlier results obtained by satellite, aeromagnetic, and marine platforms; and provide a much more detailed picture of the strong anomalies on this island. The temporal characteristics of regional anomalies show a decreasing strength of the dipolar structure, where decreasing of the field intensities is faster than the regional secular variations as defined by the global model (the 10th generation of IGRF). However, some exceptions (increasing of anomalies) have to be noted and further analyzed for several locations.
Thereafter, simultaneous magnetic anomalies and gravity models are generated and interpreted in detail. Three profiles are investigated, providing new insights into the tectonics and geological evolution of the Lombok Island. Geological structure of this island can be divided as two main parts with different consecutive ages: an old part (from late Oligocene to late Miocene) in the South and a younger one (from Pliocene to Holocene) in the North. A new subduction in the back arc region (the Flores Thrust zone) is considered mature and active, showing a tendency of progressive subduction during 2005–2008. Geothermal potential in the northern part of this island can be mapped in more detail using these geomagnetic regional survey data. The earlier estimates of reservoir depth can be confirmed further to a depth of about 800 m. Evaluation of temporal changes of the anomalies gives some possible explanations related to the evolution of the back arc region, large stress accumulations over the LSI region, a specific electrical characteristic of the crust of the Lombok Island region, and a structural discontinuity over this island.
Based on the results, several possible advanced studies involving geomagnetic data and anomaly investigations over the Lombok Island region can be suggested for the future:
i. Monitoring the subduction activity of the back arc region (the Flores Thrust zone) and the accumulated stress over the LSI, that could contribute to middle term hazard assessment with a special attention to the earthquake occurrence in this region. Continuous geomagnetic field measurements from a geomagnetic observatory which can be established in the northern part of the Lombok Island and systematic measurements at several repeat stations can be useful in this regards.
ii. Investigating the specific electrical characteristic (high conductivity) of the crust, that is probably related to some aquifer layers or metal mineralization. It needs other complementary geophysical methods, such as magnetotelluric (MT) or preferably DC resistivity measurements.
iii. Determining the existence of an active structural fault over the Lombok Island, that could be related to long term hazard assessment over the LSI region. This needs an extension of geomagnetic investigations over the neighbouring islands (the Bali Island in the West and the Sumbawa Island in the East; probably also the Sumba and the Flores islands). This seems possible because the regional magnetic lineations might be used to delineate some structural discontinuities, based on the modelling of contrasts in crustal magnetizations.