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Die vorliegende Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Charakterisierung von Seismizität anhand von Erdbebenkatalogen. Es werden neue Verfahren der Datenanalyse entwickelt, die Aufschluss darüber geben sollen, ob der seismischen Dynamik ein stochastischer oder ein deterministischer Prozess zugrunde liegt und was daraus für die Vorhersagbarkeit starker Erdbeben folgt. Es wird gezeigt, dass seismisch aktive Regionen häufig durch nichtlinearen Determinismus gekennzeichent sind. Dies schließt zumindest die Möglichkeit einer Kurzzeitvorhersage ein. Das Auftreten seismischer Ruhe wird häufig als Vorläuferphaenomen für starke Erdbeben gedeutet. Es wird eine neue Methode präsentiert, die eine systematische raumzeitliche Kartierung seismischer Ruhephasen ermöglicht. Die statistische Signifikanz wird mit Hilfe des Konzeptes der Ersatzdaten bestimmt. Als Resultat erhält man deutliche Korrelationen zwischen seismischen Ruheperioden und starken Erdbeben. Gleichwohl ist die Signifikanz dafür nicht hoch genug, um eine Vorhersage im Sinne einer Aussage über den Ort, die Zeit und die Stärke eines zu erwartenden Hauptbebens zu ermöglichen.
In this work, some new results to exploit the recurrence properties of quasiperiodic dynamical systems are presented by means of a two dimensional visualization technique, Recurrence Plots(RPs). Quasiperiodicity is the simplest form of dynamics exhibiting nontrivial recurrences, which are common in many nonlinear systems. The concept of recurrence was introduced to study the restricted three body problem and it is very useful for the characterization of nonlinear systems. I have analyzed in detail the recurrence patterns of systems with quasiperiodic dynamics both analytically and numerically. Based on a theoretical analysis, I have proposed a new procedure to distinguish quasiperiodic dynamics from chaos. This algorithm is particular useful in the analysis of short time series. Furthermore, this approach demonstrates to be efficient in recognizing regular and chaotic trajectories of dynamical systems with mixed phase space. Regarding the application to real situations, I have shown the capability and validity of this method by analyzing time series from fluid experiments.
This work incorporates three treatises which are commonly concerned with a stochastic theory of the Lyapunov exponents. With the help of this theory universal scaling laws are investigated which appear in coupled chaotic and disordered systems. First, two continuous-time stochastic models for weakly coupled chaotic systems are introduced to study the scaling of the Lyapunov exponents with the coupling strength (coupling sensitivity of chaos). By means of the the Fokker-Planck formalism scaling relations are derived, which are confirmed by results of numerical simulations. Next, coupling sensitivity is shown to exist for coupled disordered chains, where it appears as a singular increase of the localization length. Numerical findings for coupled Anderson models are confirmed by analytic results for coupled continuous-space Schrödinger equations. The resulting scaling relation of the localization length resembles the scaling of the Lyapunov exponent of coupled chaotic systems. Finally, the statistics of the exponential growth rate of the linear oscillator with parametric noise are studied. It is shown that the distribution of the finite-time Lyapunov exponent deviates from a Gaussian one. By means of the generalized Lyapunov exponents the parameter range is determined where the non-Gaussian part of the distribution is significant and multiscaling becomes essential.
Concerns have been raised that anthropogenic climate change could lead to large-scale singular climate events, i.e., abrupt nonlinear climate changes with repercussions on regional to global scales. One central goal of this thesis is the development of models of two representative components of the climate system that could exhibit singular behavior: the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) and the Indian monsoon. These models are conceived so as to fulfill the main requirements of integrated assessment modeling, i.e., reliability, computational efficiency, transparency and flexibility. The model of the THC is an interhemispheric four-box model calibrated against data generated with a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity. It is designed to be driven by global mean temperature change which is translated into regional fluxes of heat and freshwater through a linear down-scaling procedure. Results of a large number of transient climate change simulations indicate that the reduced-form THC model is able to emulate key features of the behavior of comprehensive climate models such as the sensitivity of the THC to the amount, regional distribution and rate of change in the heat and freshwater fluxes. The Indian monsoon is described by a novel one-dimensional box model of the tropical atmosphere. It includes representations of the radiative and surface fluxes, the hydrological cycle and surface hydrology. Despite its high degree of idealization, the model satisfactorily captures relevant aspects of the observed monsoon dynamics, such as the annual course of precipitation and the onset and withdrawal of the summer monsoon. Also, the model exhibits the sensitivity to changes in greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol concentrations that are known from comprehensive models. A simplified version of the monsoon model is employed for the identification of changes in the qualitative system behavior against changes in boundary conditions. The most notable result is that under summer conditions a saddle-node bifurcation occurs at critical values of the planetary albedo or insolation. Furthermore, the system exhibits two stable equilibria: besides the wet summer monsoon, a stable state exists which is characterized by a weak hydrological cycle. These results are remarkable insofar, as they indicate that anthropogenic perturbations of the planetary albedo such as sulfur emissions and/or land-use changes could destabilize the Indian summer monsoon. The reduced-form THC model is employed in an exemplary integrated assessment application. Drawing on the conceptual and methodological framework of the tolerable windows approach, emissions corridors (i.e., admissible ranges of CO2- emissions) are derived that limit the risk of a THC collapse while considering expectations about the socio-economically acceptable pace of emissions reductions. Results indicate, for example, a large dependency of the width of the emissions corridor on climate and hydrological sensitivity: for low values of climate and/or hydrological sensitivity, the corridor boundaries are far from being transgressed by any plausible emissions scenario for the 21st century. In contrast, for high values of both quantities low non-intervention scenarios leave the corridor already in the early decades of the 21st century. This implies that if the risk of a THC collapse is to be kept low, business-as-usual paths would need to be abandoned within the next two decades. All in all, this thesis highlights the value of reduced-form modeling by presenting a number of applications of this class of models, ranging from sensitivity and bifurcation analysis to integrated assessment. The results achieved and conclusions drawn provide a useful contribution to the scientific and policy debate about the consequences of anthropogenic climate change and the long-term goals of climate protection. --- Anmerkung: Die Autorin ist Trägerin des von der Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Potsdam vergebenen Michelson-Preises für die beste Promotion des Jahres 2003/2004.
Atmospheric interactions with land surface in the arctic based on regional climate model solutions
(2014)
Noise is ubiquitous in nature and usually results in rich dynamics in stochastic systems such as oscillatory systems, which exist in such various fields as physics, biology and complex networks. The correlation and synchronization of two or many oscillators are widely studied topics in recent years.
In this thesis, we mainly investigate two problems, i.e., the stochastic bursting phenomenon in noisy excitable systems and synchronization in a three-dimensional Kuramoto model with noise. Stochastic bursting here refers to a sequence of coherent spike train, where each spike has random number of followers due to the combined effects of both time delay and noise. Synchronization, as a universal phenomenon in nonlinear dynamical systems, is well illustrated in the Kuramoto model, a prominent model in the description of collective motion.
In the first part of this thesis, an idealized point process, valid if the characteristic timescales in the problem are well separated, is used to describe statistical properties such as the power spectral density and the interspike interval distribution. We show how the main parameters of the point process, the spontaneous excitation rate, and the probability to induce a spike during the delay action can be calculated from the solutions of a stationary and a forced Fokker-Planck equation. We extend it to the delay-coupled case and derive analytically the statistics of the spikes in each neuron, the pairwise correlations between any two neurons, and the spectrum of the total output from the network.
In the second part, we investigate the three-dimensional noisy Kuramoto model, which can be used to describe the synchronization in a swarming model with helical trajectory. In the case without natural frequency, the Kuramoto model can be connected with the Vicsek model, which is widely studied in collective motion and swarming of active matter. We analyze the linear stability of the incoherent state and derive the critical coupling strength above which the incoherent state loses stability. In the limit of no natural frequency, an exact self-consistent equation of the mean field is derived and extended straightforward to any high-dimensional case.
Microfabricated solid-state surfaces, also called atom chip', have become a well-established technique to trap and manipulate atoms. This has simplified applications in atom interferometry, quantum information processing, and studies of many-body systems. Magnetic trapping potentials with arbitrary geommetries are generated with atom chip by miniaturized current-carrying conductors integrated on a solid substrate. Atoms can be trapped and cooled to microKelvin and even nanoKelvin temperatures in such microchip trap. However, cold atoms can be significantly perturbed by the chip surface, typically held at room temperature. The magnetic field fluctuations generated by thermal currents in the chip elements may induce spin flips of atoms and result in loss, heating and decoherence. In this thesis, we extend previous work on spin flip rates induced by magnetic noise and consider the more complex geometries that are typically encountered in atom chips: layered structures and metallic wires of finite cross-section. We also discuss a few aspects of atom chips traps built with superconducting structures that have been suggested as a means to suppress magnetic field fluctuations. The thesis describes calculations of spin flip rates based on magnetic Green functions that are computed analytically and numerically. For a chip with a top metallic layer, the magnetic noise depends essentially on the thickness of that layer, as long as the layers below have a much smaller conductivity. Based on this result, scaling laws for loss rates above a thin metallic layer are derived. A good agreement with experiments is obtained in the regime where the atom-surface distance is comparable to the skin depth of metal. Since in the experiments, metallic layers are always etched to separate wires carrying different currents, the impact of the finite lateral wire size on the magnetic noise has been taken into account. The local spectrum of the magnetic field near a metallic microstructure has been investigated numerically with the help of boundary integral equations. The magnetic noise significantly depends on polarizations above flat wires with finite lateral width, in stark contrast to an infinitely wide wire. Correlations between multiple wires are also taken into account. In the last part, superconducting atom chips are considered. Magnetic traps generated by superconducting wires in the Meissner state and the mixed state are studied analytically by a conformal mapping method and also numerically. The properties of the traps created by superconducting wires are investigated and compared to normal conducting wires: they behave qualitatively quite similar and open a route to further trap miniaturization, due to the advantage of low magnetic noise. We discuss critical currents and fields for several geometries.
In the present thesis I investigate the lattice dynamics of thin film hetero structures of magnetically ordered materials upon femtosecond laser excitation as a probing and manipulation scheme for the spin system. The quantitative assessment of laser induced thermal dynamics as well as generated picosecond acoustic pulses and their respective impact on the magnetization dynamics of thin films is a challenging endeavor. All the more, the development and implementation of effective experimental tools and comprehensive models are paramount to propel future academic and technological progress.
In all experiments in the scope of this cumulative dissertation, I examine the crystal lattice of nanoscale thin films upon the excitation with femtosecond laser pulses. The relative change of the lattice constant due to thermal expansion or picosecond strain pulses is directly monitored by an ultrafast X-ray diffraction (UXRD) setup with a femtosecond laser-driven plasma X-ray source (PXS). Phonons and spins alike exert stress on the lattice, which responds according to the elastic properties of the material, rendering the lattice a versatile sensor for all sorts of ultrafast interactions. On the one hand, I investigate materials with strong magneto-elastic properties; The highly magnetostrictive rare-earth compound TbFe2, elemental Dysprosium or the technological relevant Invar material FePt. On the other hand I conduct a comprehensive study on the lattice dynamics of Bi1Y2Fe5O12 (Bi:YIG), which exhibits high-frequency coherent spin dynamics upon femtosecond laser excitation according to the literature. Higher order standing spinwaves (SSWs) are triggered by coherent and incoherent motion of atoms, in other words phonons, which I quantified with UXRD. We are able to unite the experimental observations of the lattice and magnetization dynamics qualitatively and quantitatively. This is done with a combination of multi-temperature, elastic, magneto-elastic, anisotropy and micro-magnetic modeling.
The collective data from UXRD, to probe the lattice, and time-resolved magneto-optical Kerr effect (tr-MOKE) measurements, to monitor the magnetization, were previously collected at different experimental setups. To improve the precision of the quantitative assessment of lattice and magnetization dynamics alike, our group implemented a combination of UXRD and tr-MOKE in a singular experimental setup, which is to my knowledge, the first of its kind. I helped with the conception and commissioning of this novel experimental station, which allows the simultaneous observation of lattice and magnetization dynamics on an ultrafast timescale under identical excitation conditions. Furthermore, I developed a new X-ray diffraction measurement routine which significantly reduces the measurement time of UXRD experiments by up to an order of magnitude. It is called reciprocal space slicing (RSS) and utilizes an area detector to monitor the angular motion of X-ray diffraction peaks, which is associated with lattice constant changes, without a time-consuming scan of the diffraction angles with the goniometer. RSS is particularly useful for ultrafast diffraction experiments, since measurement time at large scale facilities like synchrotrons and free electron lasers is a scarce and expensive resource. However, RSS is not limited to ultrafast experiments and can even be extended to other diffraction techniques with neutrons or electrons.
The mammalian brain is, with its numerous neural elements and structured complex connectivity, one of the most complex systems in nature. Recently, large-scale corticocortical connectivities, both structural and functional, have received a great deal of research attention, especially using the approach of complex networks. Here, we try to shed some light on the relationship between structural and functional connectivities by studying synchronization dynamics in a realistic anatomical network of cat cortical connectivity. We model the cortical areas by a subnetwork of interacting excitable neurons (multilevel model) and by a neural mass model (population model). With weak couplings, the multilevel model displays biologically plausible dynamics and the synchronization patterns reveal a hierarchical cluster organization in the network structure. We can identify a group of brain areas involved in multifunctional tasks by comparing the dynamical clusters to the topological communities of the network. With strong couplings of multilevel model and by using neural mass model, the dynamics are characterized by well-defined oscillations. The synchronization patterns are mainly determined by the node intensity (total input strengths of a node); the detailed network topology is of secondary importance. The biologically improved multilevel model exhibits similar dynamical patterns in the two regimes. Thus, the study of synchronization in a multilevel complex network model of cortex can provide insights into the relationship between network topology and functional organization of complex brain networks.
The Greenland Ice Sheet is the second-largest mass of ice on Earth. Being almost 2000 km long, more than 700 km wide, and more than 3 km thick at the summit, it holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by 7m if melted completely. Despite its massive size, it is particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change: temperatures over the Greenland Ice Sheet have increased by more than 2.7◦C in the past 30 years, twice as much as the global mean temperature. Consequently, the ice sheet has been significantly losing mass since the 1980s and the rate of loss has increased sixfold since then. Moreover, it is one of the potential tipping elements of the Earth System, which might undergo irreversible change once a warming threshold is exceeded. This thesis aims at extending the understanding of the resilience of the Greenland Ice Sheet against global warming by analyzing processes and feedbacks relevant to its centennial to multi-millennial stability using ice sheet modeling.
One of these feedbacks, the melt-elevation-feedback is driven by the temperature rise with decreasing altitudes: As the ice sheet melts, its thickness and surface elevation decrease, exposing the ice surface to warmer air and thus increasing the melt rates even further. The glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) can partly mitigate this melt-elevation feedback as the bedrock lifts in response to an ice load decrease, forming the negative GIA feedback. In my thesis, I show that the interaction between these two competing feedbacks can lead to qualitatively different dynamical responses of the Greenland Ice Sheet to warming – from permanent loss to incomplete recovery, depending on the feedback parameters. My research shows that the interaction of those feedbacks can initiate self-sustained oscillations of the ice volume while the climate forcing remains constant.
Furthermore, the increased surface melt changes the optical properties of the snow or ice surface, e.g. by lowering their albedo, which in turn enhances melt rates – a process known as the melt-albedo feedback. Process-based ice sheet models often neglect this melt-albedo feedback. To close this gap, I implemented a simplified version of the diurnal Energy Balance Model, a computationally efficient approach that can capture the first-order effects of the melt-albedo feedback, into the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). Using the coupled model, I show in warming experiments that the melt-albedo feedback almost doubles the ice loss until the year 2300 under the low greenhouse gas emission scenario RCP2.6, compared to simulations where the melt-albedo feedback is neglected,
and adds up to 58% additional ice loss under the high emission scenario RCP8.5. Moreover, I find that the melt-albedo feedback dominates the ice loss until 2300, compared to the melt-elevation feedback.
Another process that could influence the resilience of the Greenland Ice Sheet is the warming induced softening of the ice and the resulting increase in flow. In my thesis, I show with PISM how the uncertainty in Glen’s flow law impacts the simulated response to warming. In a flow line setup at fixed climatic mass balance, the uncertainty in flow parameters leads to a range of ice loss comparable to the range caused by different warming levels.
While I focus on fundamental processes, feedbacks, and their interactions in the first three projects of my thesis, I also explore the impact of specific climate scenarios on the sea level rise contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet. To increase the carbon budget flexibility, some warming scenarios – while still staying within the limits of the Paris Agreement – include a temporal overshoot of global warming. I show that an overshoot by 0.4◦C increases the short-term and long-term ice loss from Greenland by several centimeters. The long-term increase is driven by the warming at high latitudes, which persists even when global warming is reversed. This leads to a substantial long-term commitment of the sea level rise contribution from the Greenland Ice Sheet.
Overall, in my thesis I show that the melt-albedo feedback is most relevant for the ice loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet on centennial timescales. In contrast, the melt-elevation feedback and its interplay with the GIA feedback become increasingly relevant on millennial timescales. All of these influence the resilience of the Greenland Ice Sheet against global warming, in the near future and on the long term.