05.10.-a Computational methods in statistical physics and nonlinear dynamics (see also 02.70.-c in mathematical methods in physics)
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- Bayesian inference (1)
- Bayessche Statistik (1)
- Hurst exponent (1)
- Hurst-Exponent (1)
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Proteins are molecules that are essential for life and carry out an enormous number of functions in organisms. To this end, they change their conformation and bind to other molecules. However, the interplay between conformational change and binding is not fully understood. In this work, this interplay is investigated with molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of the protein-peptide system Mdm2-PMI and by analysis of data from relaxation experiments.
The central task it to uncover the binding mechanism, which is described by the sequence of (partial) binding events and conformational change events including their probabilities. In the simplest case, the binding mechanism is described by a two-step model: binding followed by conformational change or conformational change followed by binding. In the general case, longer sequences with multiple conformational changes and partial binding events are possible as well as parallel pathways that differ in their sequences of events. The theory of Markov state models (MSMs) provides the theoretical framework in which all these cases can be modeled. For this purpose, MSMs are estimated in this work from MD data, and rate equation models, which are related to MSMs, are inferred from experimental relaxation data.
The MD simulation and Markov modeling of the PMI-Mdm2 system shows that PMI and Mdm2 can bind via multiple pathways. A main result of this work is a dissociation rate on the order of one event per second, which was calculated using Markov modeling and is in agreement with experiment. So far, dissociation rates and transition rates of this magnitude have only been calculated with methods that speed up transitions by acting with time-dependent, external forces on the binding partners. The simulation technique developed in this work, in contrast, allows the estimation of dissociation rates from the combination of free energy calculation and direct MD simulation of the fast binding process. Two new statistical estimators TRAM and TRAMMBAR are developed to estimate a MSM from the joint data of both simulation types.
In addition, a new analysis technique for time-series data from chemical relaxation experiments is developed in this work. It allows to identify one of the above-mentioned two-step mechanisms as the mechanism that underlays the data. The new method is valid for a broader range of concentrations than previous methods and therefore allows to choose the concentrations such that the mechanism can be uniquely identified. It is successfully tested with data for the binding of recoverin to a rhodopsin kinase peptide.
Estimation of the self-similarity exponent has attracted growing interest in recent decades and became a research subject in various fields and disciplines. Real-world data exhibiting self-similar behavior and/or parametrized by self-similarity exponent (in particular Hurst exponent) have been collected in different fields ranging from finance and human sciencies to hydrologic and traffic networks. Such rich classes of possible applications obligates researchers to investigate qualitatively new methods for estimation of the self-similarity exponent as well as identification of long-range dependencies (or long memory). In this thesis I present the Bayesian estimation of the Hurst exponent. In contrast to previous methods, the Bayesian approach allows the possibility to calculate the point estimator and confidence intervals at the same time, bringing significant advantages in data-analysis as discussed in this thesis. Moreover, it is also applicable to short data and unevenly sampled data, thus broadening the range of systems where the estimation of the Hurst exponent is possible. Taking into account that one of the substantial classes of great interest in modeling is the class of Gaussian self-similar processes, this thesis considers the realizations of the processes of fractional Brownian motion and fractional Gaussian noise. Additionally, applications to real-world data, such as the data of water level of the Nile River and fixational eye movements are also discussed.