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Climate or land use?
(2017)
This study intends to contribute to the ongoing discussion on whether land use and land cover changes (LULC) or climate trends have the major influence on the observed increase of flood magnitudes in the Sahel. A simulation-based approach is used for attributing the observed trends to the postulated drivers. For this purpose, the ecohydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) with a new, dynamic LULC module was set up for the Sahelian part of the Niger River until Niamey, including the main tributaries Sirba and Goroul. The model was driven with observed, reanalyzed climate and LULC data for the years 1950–2009. In order to quantify the shares of influence, one simulation was carried out with constant land cover as of 1950, and one including LULC. As quantitative measure, the gradients of the simulated trends were compared to the observed trend. The modeling studies showed that for the Sirba River only the simulation which included LULC was able to reproduce the observed trend. The simulation without LULC showed a positive trend for flood magnitudes, but underestimated the trend significantly. For the Goroul River and the local flood of the Niger River at Niamey, the simulations were only partly able to reproduce the observed trend. In conclusion, the new LULC module enabled some first quantitative insights into the relative influence of LULC and climatic changes. For the Sirba catchment, the results imply that LULC and climatic changes contribute in roughly equal shares to the observed increase in flooding. For the other parts of the subcatchment, the results are less clear but show, that climatic changes and LULC are drivers for the flood increase; however their shares cannot be quantified. Based on these modeling results, we argue for a two-pillar adaptation strategy to reduce current and future flood risk: Flood mitigation for reducing LULC-induced flood increase, and flood adaptation for a general reduction of flood vulnerability.
The Star Excursion Balance Test (SEBT) is effective in measuring dynamic postural control (DPC). This research aimed to determine whether DPC measured by the SEBT in young athletes (YA) with back pain (BP) is different from those without BP (NBP). 53 BP YA and 53 NBP YA matched for age, height, weight, training years, training sessions/week and training minutes/session were studied. Participants performed 4 practice trials after which 3 measurements in the anterior, posteromedial and posterolateral SEBT reach directions were recorded. Normalized reach distance was analyzed using the mean of all 3 measurements. There was no statistical significant difference (p > 0.05) between the reach distance of BP (87.2 ± 5.3, 82.4 ± 8.2, 78.7 ± 8.1) and NBP (87.8 ± 5.6, 82.4 ± 8.0, 80.0 ± 8.8) in the anterior, posteromedial and posterolateral directions respectively. DPC in YA with BP, as assessed by the SEBT, was not different from NBP YA.
In light of possible future restrictions on the use of fossil fuel, due to climate change obligations and continuous depletion of global fossil fuel reserves, the search for alternative renewable energy sources is expected to be an issue of great concern for policy stakeholders. This study assessed the feasibility of bioenergy production under relatively low-intensity conservative, eco-agricultural settings (as opposed to those produced under high-intensity, fossil fuel based industrialized agriculture). Estimates of the net energy gain (NEG) and the energy return on energy invested (EROEI) obtained from a life cycle inventory of the energy inputs and outputs involved reveal that the energy efficiency of bioenergy produced in low-intensity eco-agricultural systems could be as much as much as 448.5–488.3 GJ·ha−1 of NEG and an EROEI of 5.4–5.9 for maize ethanol production systems, and as much as 155.0–283.9 GJ·ha−1 of NEG and an EROEI of 14.7–22.4 for maize biogas production systems. This is substantially higher than for industrialized agriculture with a NEG of 2.8–52.5 GJ·ha−1 and an EROEI of 1.2–1.7 for maize ethanol production systems, as well as a NEG of 59.3–188.7 GJ·ha−1 and an EROEI of 2.2–10.2 for maize biogas production systems. Bioenergy produced in low-intensity eco-agricultural systems could therefore be an important source of energy with immense net benefits for local and regional end-users, provided a more efficient use of the co-products is ensured.
The novel space-borne Global Navigation Satellite System Reflectometry (GNSS-R) technique has recently shown promise in monitoring the ocean state and surface wind speed with high spatial coverage and unprecedented sampling rate. The L-band signals of GNSS are structurally able to provide a higher quality of observations from areas covered by dense clouds and under intense precipitation, compared to those signals at higher frequencies from conventional ocean scatterometers. As a result, studying the inner core of cyclones and improvement of severe weather forecasting and cyclone tracking have turned into the main objectives of GNSS-R satellite missions such as Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS). Nevertheless, the rain attenuation impact on GNSS-R wind speed products is not yet well documented. Evaluating the rain attenuation effects on this technique is significant since a small change in the GNSS-R can potentially cause a considerable bias in the resultant wind products at intense wind speeds. Based on both empirical evidence and theory, wind speed is inversely proportional to derived bistatic radar cross section with a natural logarithmic relation, which introduces high condition numbers (similar to ill-posed conditions) at the inversions to high wind speeds. This paper presents an evaluation of the rain signal attenuation impact on the bistatic radar cross section and the derived wind speed. This study is conducted simulating GNSS-R delay-Doppler maps at different rain rates and reflection geometries, considering that an empirical data analysis at extreme wind intensities and rain rates is impossible due to the insufficient number of observations from these severe conditions. Finally, the study demonstrates that at a wind speed of 30 m/s and incidence angle of 30 degrees, rain at rates of 10, 15, and 20 mm/h might cause overestimation as large as approximate to 0.65 m/s (2%), 1.00 m/s (3%), and 1.3 m/s (4%), respectively, which are still smaller than the CYGNSS required uncertainty threshold. The simulations are conducted in a pessimistic condition (severe continuous rainfall below the freezing height and over the entire glistening zone) and the bias is expected to be smaller in size in real environments.
During the last few decades, the rapid separation of the Small Aral Sea from the isolated basin has changed its hydrological and ecological conditions tremendously. In the present study, we developed and validated the hybrid model for the Syr Darya River basin based on a combination of state-of-the-art hydrological and machine learning models. Climate change impact on freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea for the projection period 2007–2099 has been quantified based on the developed hybrid model and bias corrected and downscaled meteorological projections simulated by four General Circulation Models (GCM) for each of three Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP). The developed hybrid model reliably simulates freshwater inflow for the historical period with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.72 and a Kling–Gupta efficiency of 0.77. Results of the climate change impact assessment showed that the freshwater inflow projections produced by different GCMs are misleading by providing contradictory results for the projection period. However, we identified that the relative runoff changes are expected to be more pronounced in the case of more aggressive RCP scenarios. The simulated projections of freshwater inflow provide a basis for further assessment of climate change impacts on hydrological and ecological conditions of the Small Aral Sea in the 21st Century.
This study aimed to determine the relative and absolute reliability of ultrasound (US) measurements of the thickness and echogenicity of the plantar fascia (PF) at different measurement stations along its length using a standardized protocol. Twelve healthy subjects (24 feet) were enrolled. The PF was imaged in the longitudinal plane. Subjects were assessed twice to evaluate the intra-rater reliability. A quantitative evaluation of the thickness and echogenicity of the plantar fascia was performed using Image J, a digital image analysis and viewer software. A sonography evaluation of the thickness and echogenicity of the PF showed a high relative reliability with an Intra class correlation coefficient of 0.88 at all measurement stations. However, the measurement stations for both the PF thickness and echogenicity which showed the highest intraclass correlation coefficient (ICCs) did not have the highest absolute reliability. Compared to other measurement stations, measuring the PF thickness at 3 cm distal and the echogenicity at a region of interest 1 cm to 2 cm distal from its insertion at the medial calcaneal tubercle showed the highest absolute reliability with the least systematic bias and random error. Also, the reliability was higher using a mean of three measurements compared to one measurement. To reduce discrepancies in the interpretation of the thickness and echogenicity measurements of the PF, the absolute reliability of the different measurement stations should be considered in clinical practice and research rather than the relative reliability with the ICC.
There is growing evidence to support change in the rehabilitation strategy of patellofemoral pain syndrome (PFPS) from traditional quadriceps strengthening exercises to inclusion of hip musculature strengthening in individuals with PFPS. Several studies have evaluated effects of quadriceps and hip musculature strengthening on PFPS with varying outcomes on pain and function. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to synthesize outcomes of pain and function post-intervention and at follow-up to determine whether outcomes vary depending on the exercise strategy in both the short and long term. Electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Web of Science, PubMed, Pedro database, Proquest, Science direct, and EBscoHost databases were searched for randomized control trials published between 1st of January 2005 and 31st of June 2015, comparing the outcomes of pain and function following quadriceps strengthening and hip musculature strengthening exercises in patients with PFPS. Two independent reviewers assessed each paper for inclusion and quality. Means and SDs were extracted from each included study to allow effect size calculations and comparison of results. Six randomized control trials met the inclusion criteria. Limited to moderate evidence indicates that hip abductor strengthening was associated with significantly lower pain post-intervention (SMD −0.88, −1.28 to −0.47 95% CI), and at 12 months (SMD −3.10, −3.71 to −2.50 95% CI) with large effect sizes (greater than 0.80) compared to quadriceps strengthening. Our findings suggest that incorporating hip musculature strengthening in management of PFPS tailored to individual ability will improve short-term and long-term outcomes of rehabilitation. Further research evaluating the effects of quadriceps and hip abductors strengthening focusing on reduction in anterior knee pain and improvement in function in management of PFPS is needed.
In this study, an in situ application for identifying neodymium (Nd) enriched surface materials that uses multitemporal hyperspectral images is presented (HySpex sensor). Because of the narrow shape and shallow absorption depth of the neodymium absorption feature, a method was developed for enhancing and extracting the necessary information for neodymium from image spectra, even under illumination conditions that are not optimal. For this purpose, the two following approaches were developed: (1) reducing noise and analyzing changing illumination conditions by averaging multitemporal image scenes and (2) enhancing the depth of the desired absorption band by deconvolving every image spectrum with a Gaussian curve while the rest of the spectrum remains unchanged (Richardson-Lucy deconvolution). To evaluate these findings, nine field samples from the Fen complex in Norway were analyzed using handheld X-ray fluorescence devices and by conducting detailed laboratory-based geochemical rare earth element determinations. The result is a qualitative outcrop map that highlights zones that are enriched in neodymium. To reduce the influences of non-optimal illumination, particularly at the studied site, a minimum of seven single acquisitions is required. Sharpening the neodymium absorption band allows for robust mapping, even at the outer zones of enrichment. From the geochemical investigations, we found that iron oxides decrease the applicability of the method. However, iron-related absorption bands can be used as secondary indicators for sulfidic ore zones that are mainly enriched with rare earth elements. In summary, we found that hyperspectral spectroscopy is a noninvasive, fast and cost-saving method for determining neodymium at outcrop surfaces
Cancer cachexia, of which the most notable symptom is severe and rapid weight loss, is present in the majority of patients with advanced cancer. Inflammatory mediators play an important role in the development of cachexia, envisaged as a chronic inflammatory syndrome. The white adipose tissue (WAT) is one of the first compartments affected in cancer cachexia and suffers a high rate of lipolysis. It secretes several cytokines capable of directly regulating intermediate metabolism. A common pathway in the regulation of the expression of pro-inflammatory cytokines in WAT is the activation of the nuclear transcription factor kappa-B (NF-κB). We have examined the gene expression of the subunits NF-κBp65 and NF-κBp50, as well as NF-κBp65 and NF-κBp50 binding, the gene expression of pro-inflammatory mediators under NF-κB control (IL-1β, IL-6, INF-γ, TNF-α, MCP-1), and its inhibitory protein, nuclear factor of kappa light polypeptide gene enhancer in B-cells inhibitor, alpha (IκB-α). The observational study involved 35 patients (control group, n = 12 and cancer group, n = 23, further divided into cachectic and non-cachectic). NF-κBp65 and its target genes expression (TNF-α, IL-1β, MCP-1 and IκB-α) were significantly higher in cachectic cancer patients. Moreover, NF-κBp65 gene expression correlated positively with the expression of its target genes. The results strongly suggest that the NF-κB pathway plays a role in the promotion of WAT inflammation during cachexia.
Yedoma-extremely ice-rich permafrost with massive ice wedges formed during the Late Pleistocene-is vulnerable to thawing and degradation under climate warming. Thawing of ice-rich Yedoma results in lowering of surface elevations. Quantitative knowledge about surface elevation changes helps us to understand the freeze-thaw processes of the active layer and the potential degradation of Yedoma deposits. In this study, we use C-band Sentinel-1 InSAR measurements to map the elevation changes over ice-rich Yedoma uplands on Sobo-Sise Island, Lena Delta with frequent revisit observations (as short as six or 12 days). We observe significant seasonal thaw subsidence during summer months and heterogeneous inter-annual elevation changes from 2016-17. We also observe interesting patterns of stronger seasonal thaw subsidence on elevated flat Yedoma uplands by comparing to the surrounding Yedoma slopes. Inter-annual analyses from 2016-17 suggest that our observed positive surface elevation changes are likely caused by the delayed progression of the thaw season in 2017, associated with mean annual air temperature fluctuations.