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During the last few decades, the rapid separation of the Small Aral Sea from the isolated basin has changed its hydrological and ecological conditions tremendously. In the present study, we developed and validated the hybrid model for the Syr Darya River basin based on a combination of state-of-the-art hydrological and machine learning models. Climate change impact on freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea for the projection period 2007-2099 has been quantified based on the developed hybrid model and bias corrected and downscaled meteorological projections simulated by four General Circulation Models (GCM) for each of three Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP). The developed hybrid model reliably simulates freshwater inflow for the historical period with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.72 and a Kling-Gupta efficiency of 0.77. Results of the climate change impact assessment showed that the freshwater inflow projections produced by different GCMs are misleading by providing contradictory results for the projection period. However, we identified that the relative runoff changes are expected to be more pronounced in the case of more aggressive RCP scenarios. The simulated projections of freshwater inflow provide a basis for further assessment of climate change impacts on hydrological and ecological conditions of the Small Aral Sea in the 21st Century.
Geophysical data acquisition in oceanic domains is challenging, implying measurements with low and/or nonhomogeneous spatial resolution. The evolution of satellite gravimetry and altimetry techniques allows testing 3-D density models of the lithosphere, taking advantage of the high spatial resolution and homogeneous coverage of satellites. However, it is not trivial to discretise the source of the gravity field at different depths. Here, we propose a new method for inferring tectonic boundaries at the crustal level. As a novelty, instead of modeling the gravity anomalies and assuming a flat Earth approximation, we model the vertical gravity gradients (VGG) in spherical coordinates, which are especially sensitive to density contrasts in the upper layers of the Earth. To validate the methodology, the complex oceanic domain of the Caribbean region is studied, which includes different crustal domains with a tectonic history since Late Jurassic time. After defining a lithospheric starting model constrained by up-to-date geophysical data sets, we tested several a-priory density distributions and selected the model with the minimum misfits with respect to the VGG calculated from the EIGEN-6C4 data set. Additionally, the density of the crystalline crust was inferred by inverting the VGG field. Our methodology enabled us not only to refine, confirm, and/or propose tectonic boundaries in the study area but also to identify a new anomalous buoyant body, located in the South Lesser Antilles subduction zone, and high-density bodies along the Greater, Lesser, and Leeward Antilles forearcs.
Through changes in policy and practice, the inherent intent of the ecosystem services (ES) concept is to safeguard ecosystems for human wellbeing. While impact is intrinsic to the concept, little is known about how and whether ES science leads to impact. Evidence of impact is needed. Given the lack of consensus on what constitutes impact, we differentiate between attributional impacts (transitional impacts on policy, practice, awareness or other drivers) and consequential impacts (real, on-the-ground impacts on biodiversity, ES, ecosystem functions and human wellbeing) impacts. We conduct rigorous statistical analyses on three extensive databases for evidence of attributional impact (the form most prevalently reported): the IPBES catalogue (n = 102), the Lautenbach systematic review (n = 504) and a 5-year in-depth survey of the OPERAs Exemplars (n = 13). To understand the drivers of impacts, we statistically analyse associations between study characteristics and impacts. Our findings show that there exists much confusion with regard to defining ES science impacts, and that evidence of attributional impact is scarce: only 25% of the IPBES assessments self-reported impact (7% with evidence); in our meta-analysis of Lautenbach’s systematic review, 33% of studies provided recommendations indicating intent of impacts. Systematic impact reporting was imposed by design on the OPERAs Exemplars: 100% reported impacts, suggesting the importance of formal impact reporting. The generalised linear models and correlations between study characteristics and attributional impact dimensions highlight four characteristics as minimum baseline for impact: study robustness, integration of policy instruments into study design, stakeholder involvement and type of stakeholders involved. Further in depth examination of the OPERAs Exemplars showed that study characteristics associated with impact on awareness and practice differ from those associated with impact on policy: to achieve impact along specific dimensions, bespoke study designs are recommended. These results inform targeted recommendations for ES science to break its impact glass ceiling.
Movement ecology aims to provide common terminology and an integrative framework of movement research across all groups of organisms. Yet such work has focused on unitary organisms so far, and thus the important group of filamentous fungi has not been considered in this context. With the exception of spore dispersal, movement in filamentous fungi has not been integrated into the movement ecology field. At the same time, the field of fungal ecology has been advancing research on topics like informed growth, mycelial translocations, or fungal highways using its own terminology and frameworks, overlooking the theoretical developments within movement ecology. We provide a conceptual and terminological framework for interdisciplinary collaboration between these two disciplines, and show how both can benefit from closer links: We show how placing the knowledge from fungal biology and ecology into the framework of movement ecology can inspire both theoretical and empirical developments, eventually leading towards a better understanding of fungal ecology and community assembly. Conversely, by a greater focus on movement specificities of filamentous fungi, movement ecology stands to benefit from the challenge to evolve its concepts and terminology towards even greater universality. We show how our concept can be applied for other modular organisms (such as clonal plants and slime molds), and how this can lead towards comparative studies with the relationship between organismal movement and ecosystems in the focus.
We present a pollen record for last 28 cal kyr BP from the eastern basin of Lake Karakul, the largest lake in Tajikistan, located in the eastern Pamir Mountains at 3915 m asl, a geographically complex region. The pollen record is dominated by Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae, while other taxa, apart from Poaceae, are present in low quantities and rarely exceed 5% in total. Arboreal pollen occur predominantly from similar to 28 to similar to 13 cal kyr BP, but as likely no trees occurred in the high mountain regions of the eastern Pamir during this time due to the high altitude and cold climate, arboreal taxa are attributed to long distance transport, probably by the Westerlies, the dominant atmospheric circulation. Tree pollen influx decreases strongly after similar to 13 cal kyr BP, allowing the pollen spectra to be interpreted as a regional vegetation signal. We infer that from 27.6 to 19.4 cal kyr BP the eastern Pamir was dominated by dry mountain steppe with low vegetation cover, while from 19.0 to 13.6 cal kyr BP Artemisia values increase and Chenopodiaceae, most herb taxa, and inferred far distant input from arboreal taxa decrease. Between 12.9 and 6.7 cal kyr BP open steppe vegetation dominated with maximum values in Ephedra, and while steppe taxa still dominated the spectra from 5.4 to 1 cal kyr BP, meadow taxa start to increase. During the last millennium, alpine steppe and alpine meadows expanded and a weak human influence can be ascertained from the increase of Asteraceae and the occurrence of Plantago pollen in the spectra.