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This eye-tracking study establishes basic benchmarks of eye movements during reading in heritage language (HL) by Russian-speaking adults and adolescents of high (n = 21) and low proficiency (n = 27). Heritage speakers (HSs) read sentences in Cyrillic, and their eye movements were compared to those of Russian monolingual skilled adult readers, 8-year-old children and L2 learners. Reading patterns of HSs revealed longer mean fixation durations, lower skipping probabilities, and higher regressive saccade rates than in monolingual adults. High-proficient HSs were more similar to monolingual children, while low-proficient HSs performed on par with L2 learners. Low-proficient HSs differed from high-proficient HSs in exhibiting lower skipping probabilities, higher fixation counts, and larger frequency effects. Taken together, our findings are consistent with the weaker links account of bilingual language processing as well as the divergent attainment theory of HL.
This study examined the effect of 6 weeks of progressed and nonprogressed volume-based overload plyometric training (PT) on components of physical fitness and body composition measures in young male basketball players, compared with an active control group. Subjects were randomly assigned to a progressed PT (PPT, n = 7; age = 14.6 +/- 1.1 years), a non-PPT (NPPT, n = 8, age = 13.8 +/- 2.0 years), or a control group (CG, n = 7, age = 14.0 +/- 2.0 years). Before and after training, body composition measures (muscle mass and fat mass), countermovement jump with arms (CMJA) and countermovement jump without arms (CMJ), horizontal bilateral (HCMJ) and unilateral jump with right leg (RJ) and left leg (LJ), 20-cm drop jump (DJ20), sprint speed (10 m sprint), and change of direction speed (CODS [i.e., T-test]) were tested. Significant effects of time were observed for muscle and fat mass, all jump measures, and CODS (all p < 0.01; d = 0.37-0.83). Significant training group x time interactions were observed for all jump measures (all p < 0.05; d = 0.24-0.41). Post hoc analyses revealed significant pre-post performance improvements for the PPT (RJ and LJ: increment 18.6%, d = 0.8 and increment 22.7%, d = 0.9, respectively; HCMJ: increment 16.4%, d = 0.8; CMJ: increment 22.4%, d = 0.7; CMJA: increment 23.3%, d = 0.7; and DJ20: increment 39.7%, d = 1.1) and for the NPPT group (LJ: increment 14.1%, d = 0.4; DJ20: increment 32.9%, d = 0.8) with greater changes after PPT compared with NPPT for all jump measures (all p < 0.05; d = 0.21-0.81). The training efficiency was greater (p < 0.05; d = 0.22) after PPT (0.015% per jump) compared with NPPT (0.0053% per-jump). The PPT induced larger performance improvements on measures of physical fitness as compared to NPPT. Therefore, in-season progressive volume-based overload PT in young male basketball players is recommended.
Do stereotypes strike twice?
(2019)
Stereotypes influence teachers' perception of and behaviour towards students, thus shaping students' learning opportunities. The present study investigated how 315 Australian pre-service teachers' stereotypes about giftedness and gender are related to their perception of students' intellectual ability, adjustment, and social-emotional ability, using an experimental vignette approach and controlling for social desirability in pre-service teachers' responses. Repeated-measures ANOVA showed that pre-service teachers associated giftedness with higher intellectual ability, but with less adjustment compared to average-ability students. Furthermore, pre-service teachers perceived male students as less socially and emotionally competent and less adjusted than female students. Additionally, pre-service teachers seemed to perceive female average-ability students' adjustment as most favourable compared to male average-ability students and gifted students. Findings point to discrepancies between actual characteristics of gifted female and male students and stereotypes in teachers' beliefs. Consequences of stereotyping and implications for teacher education are discussed.
Do stereotypes strike twice?
(2019)
Stereotypes influence teachers' perception of and behaviour towards students, thus shaping students' learning opportunities. The present study investigated how 315 Australian pre-service teachers' stereotypes about giftedness and gender are related to their perception of students' intellectual ability, adjustment, and social-emotional ability, using an experimental vignette approach and controlling for social desirability in pre-service teachers' responses. Repeated-measures ANOVA showed that pre-service teachers associated giftedness with higher intellectual ability, but with less adjustment compared to average-ability students. Furthermore, pre-service teachers perceived male students as less socially and emotionally competent and less adjusted than female students. Additionally, pre-service teachers seemed to perceive female average-ability students' adjustment as most favourable compared to male average-ability students and gifted students. Findings point to discrepancies between actual characteristics of gifted female and male students and stereotypes in teachers' beliefs. Consequences of stereotyping and implications for teacher education are discussed.
Making sense of the world
(2020)
For human infants, the first years after birth are a period of intense exploration-getting to understand their own competencies in interaction with a complex physical and social environment. In contemporary neuroscience, the predictive-processing framework has been proposed as a general working principle of the human brain, the optimization of predictions about the consequences of one's own actions, and sensory inputs from the environment. However, the predictive-processing framework has rarely been applied to infancy research. We argue that a predictive-processing framework may provide a unifying perspective on several phenomena of infant development and learning that may seem unrelated at first sight. These phenomena include statistical learning principles, infants' motor and proprioceptive learning, and infants' basic understanding of their physical and social environment. We discuss how a predictive-processing perspective can advance the understanding of infants' early learning processes in theory, research, and application.
Making sense of the world
(2020)
For human infants, the first years after birth are a period of intense exploration-getting to understand their own competencies in interaction with a complex physical and social environment. In contemporary neuroscience, the predictive-processing framework has been proposed as a general working principle of the human brain, the optimization of predictions about the consequences of one's own actions, and sensory inputs from the environment. However, the predictive-processing framework has rarely been applied to infancy research. We argue that a predictive-processing framework may provide a unifying perspective on several phenomena of infant development and learning that may seem unrelated at first sight. These phenomena include statistical learning principles, infants' motor and proprioceptive learning, and infants' basic understanding of their physical and social environment. We discuss how a predictive-processing perspective can advance the understanding of infants' early learning processes in theory, research, and application.
We are glad to introduce the Second Journal Club of Volume Five, Second Issue. This edition is focused on relevant studies published in the last few years in the field of resistance training, chosen by our Editorial Board members and their colleagues. We hope to stimulate your curiosity in this field and to share with you the passion for the sport, seen also from the scientific point of view. The Editorial Board members wish you an inspiring lecture.
We are glad to introduce the Second Journal Club of Volume Five, Second Issue. This edition is focused on relevant studies published in the last few years in the field of resistance training, chosen by our Editorial Board members and their colleagues. We hope to stimulate your curiosity in this field and to share with you the passion for the sport, seen also from the scientific point of view. The Editorial Board members wish you an inspiring lecture.
The Kohat fold and thrust belt in Pakistan shows a significantly different structural style due to the structural evolution on the double décollement compared to the rest of the Subhimalaya. In order to better understand the spatio-temporal structural evolution of the Kohat fold and thrust belt, we combine balanced cross sections with apatite (U?Th-Sm)/He (AHe) and apatite fission track (AFT) dating. The AHe and AFT ages appear to be totally reset, allowing us to date exhumation above structural ramps. The results suggest that deformation began on the frontal Surghar thrust at-15 Ma, predating or coeval with the development of the Main Boundary thrust at-12 Ma. Deformation propagated southward from the Main Boundary thrust on double de?collements between 10 Ma and 2 Ma, resulting in a disharmonic structural style inside the Kohat fold and thrust belt. Thermal modeling of the thermochronologic data suggest that samples inside Kohat fold and thrust belt experienced cooling due to formation of the duplexes; this deformation facilitated tectonic thickening of the wedge and erosion of the Miocene to Pliocene foreland strata. The spatial distribution of AHe and AFT ages in combination with the structural forward model suggest that, in the Kohat fold and thrust belt, the wedge deformed in-sequence as a supercritical wedge (-15-12 Ma), then readjusted by out-sequence deformation (-12-0 Ma) within the Kohat fold and thrust belt into a sub-critical wedge.
CrashNet
(2021)
Destructive car crash tests are an elaborate, time-consuming, and expensive necessity of the automotive development process. Today, finite element method (FEM) simulations are used to reduce costs by simulating car crashes computationally. We propose CrashNet, an encoder-decoder deep neural network architecture that reduces costs further and models specific outcomes of car crashes very accurately. We achieve this by formulating car crash events as time series prediction enriched with a set of scalar features. Traditional sequence-to-sequence models are usually composed of convolutional neural network (CNN) and CNN transpose layers. We propose to concatenate those with an MLP capable of learning how to inject the given scalars into the output time series. In addition, we replace the CNN transpose with 2D CNN transpose layers in order to force the model to process the hidden state of the set of scalars as one time series. The proposed CrashNet model can be trained efficiently and is able to process scalars and time series as input in order to infer the results of crash tests. CrashNet produces results faster and at a lower cost compared to destructive tests and FEM simulations. Moreover, it represents a novel approach in the car safety management domain.
Online hate speech has become a widespread problem in the daily life of adolescents. Despite growing societal and academic interest in this online risk, not much is known about the relationship between online hate speech victimization (OHSV) and adolescents' mental well-being.
In addition, potential factors influencing the magnitude of this relationship remain unclear. To address these gaps in the literature, this study investigated the relationship between OHSV and depressive symptoms and the buffering effects of resilience in this relationship. The sample consists of 1,632 adolescents (49.1% girls) between 12 and 18 years old (M-age = 13.83, SDage = 1.23), recruited from nine schools across Spain.
Self-report questionnaires were administered to assess OHSV, depressive symptoms, and resilience. Regression analyses revealed that OHSV was positively linked to depressive symptoms.
In addition, victims of online hate speech were less likely to report depressive symptoms when they reported average or high levels of resilience (i.e., social competence, personal competence, structured style, social resources, and family cohesion) compared with those with low levels of resilience.
Our findings highlight the need for the development of intervention programs and the relevance of focusing on internal and external developmental assets to mitigate negative outcomes for victims of online hate speech.
Deciphering chemical mediators regulating specialized metabolism in a symbiotic cyanobacterium
(2022)
Genomes of cyanobacteria feature a variety of cryptic biosynthetic pathways for complex natural products, but the peculiarities limiting the discovery and exploitation of the metabolic dark matter are not well understood. Here we describe the discovery of two cell density-dependent chemical mediators, nostoclide and nostovalerolactone, in the symbiotic model strain Nostoc punctiforme, and demonstrate their pronounced impact on the regulation of specialized metabolism. Through transcriptional, bioinformatic and labeling studies we assigned two adjacent biosynthetic gene clusters to the biosynthesis of the two polyketide mediators. Our findings provide insight into the orchestration of specialized metabolite production and give lessons for the genomic mining and high-titer production of cyanobacterial bioactive compounds.
Surface melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet contributes a large amount to current and future sea level rise. Increased surface melt may lower the reflectivity of the ice sheet surface and thereby increase melt rates: the so-called melt-albedo feedback describes this self-sustaining increase in surface melting. In order to test the effect of the melt-albedo feedback in a prognostic ice sheet model, we implement dEBM-simple, a simplified version of the diurnal Energy Balance Model dEBM, in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). The implementation includes a simple representation of the melt-albedo feedback and can thereby replace the positive-degree-day melt scheme. Using PISM-dEBM-simple, we find that this feedback increases ice loss through surface warming by 60 % until 2300 for the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 when compared to a scenario in which the albedo remains constant at its present-day values. With an increase of 90 % compared to a fixed-albedo scenario, the effect is more pronounced for lower surface warming under RCP2.6. Furthermore, assuming an immediate darkening of the ice surface over all summer months, we estimate an upper bound for this effect to be 70 % in the RCP8.5 scenario and a more than 4-fold increase under RCP2.6. With dEBM-simple implemented in PISM, we find that the melt-albedo feedback is an essential contributor to mass loss in dynamic simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet under future warming.
Knowing the source and runout of debris flows can help in planning strategies aimed at mitigating these hazards. Our research in this paper focuses on developing a novel approach for optimizing runout models for regional susceptibility modelling, with a case study in the upper Maipo River basin in the Andes of Santiago, Chile. We propose a two-stage optimization approach for automatically selecting parameters for estimating runout path and distance. This approach optimizes the random-walk and Perla et al.'s (PCM) two-parameter friction model components of the open-source Gravitational Process Path (GPP) modelling framework. To validate model performance, we assess the spatial transferability of the optimized runout model using spatial crossvalidation, including exploring the model's sensitivity to sample size. We also present diagnostic tools for visualizing uncertainties in parameter selection and model performance. Although there was considerable variation in optimal parameters for individual events, we found our runout modelling approach performed well at regional prediction of potential runout areas. We also found that although a relatively small sample size was sufficient to achieve generally good runout modelling performance, larger samples sizes (i.e. >= 80) had higher model performance and lower uncertainties for estimating runout distances at unknown locations. We anticipate that this automated approach using the open-source R software and the System for Automated Geoscientific Analyses geographic information system (SAGA-GIS) will make process-based debris-flow models more readily accessible and thus enable researchers and spatial planners to improve regional-scale hazard assessments.
Background Recent shoulder injury prevention programs have utilized resistance exercises combined with different forms of instability, with the goal of eliciting functional adaptations and thereby reducing the risk of injury. However, it is still unknown how an unstable weight mass (UWM) affects the muscular activity of the shoulder stabilizers. Aim of the study was to assess neuromuscular activity of dynamic shoulder stabilizers under four conditions of stable and UWM during three shoulder exercises. It was hypothesized that a combined condition of weight with UWM would elicit greater activation due to the increased stabilization demand. Methods Sixteen participants (7 m/9 f) were included in this cross-sectional study and prepared with an EMG-setup for the: Mm. upper/lower trapezius (U.TA/L.TA), lateral deltoid (DE), latissimus dorsi (LD), serratus anterior (SA) and pectoralis major (PE). A maximal voluntary isometric contraction test (MVIC; 5 s.) was performed on an isokinetic dynamometer. Next, internal/external rotation (In/Ex), abduction/adduction (Ab/Ad) and diagonal flexion/extension (F/E) exercises (5 reps.) were performed with four custom-made-pipes representing different exercise conditions. First, the empty-pipe (P; 0.5 kg) and then, randomly ordered, water-filled-pipe (PW; 1 kg), weight-pipe (PG; 4.5 kg) and weight + water-filled-pipe (PWG; 4.5 kg), while EMG was recorded. Raw root-mean-square values (RMS) were normalized to MVIC (%MVIC). Differences between conditions for RMS%MVIC, scapular stabilizer (SR: U.TA/L.TA; U.TA/SA) and contraction (CR: concentric/eccentric) ratios were analyzed (paired t-test; p <= 0.05; Bonferroni adjusted alpha = 0.008). Results PWG showed significantly greater muscle activity for all exercises and all muscles except for PE compared to P and PW. Condition PG elicited muscular activity comparable to PWG (p > 0.008) with significantly lower activation of L.TA and SA in the In/Ex rotation. The SR ratio was significantly higher in PWG compared to P and PW. No significant differences were found for the CR ratio in all exercises and for all muscles. Conclusion Higher weight generated greater muscle activation whereas an UWM raised the neuromuscular activity, increasing the stabilization demands. Especially in the In/Ex rotation, an UWM increased the RMS%MVIC and SR ratio. This might improve training effects in shoulder prevention and rehabilitation programs.
Only the right noise?
(2020)
Seminal work by Werker and colleagues (Stager & Werker [1997]Nature, 388, 381-382) has found that 14-month-old infants do not show evidence for learning minimal pairs in the habituation-switch paradigm. However, when multiple speakers produce the minimal pair in acoustically variable ways, infants' performance improves in comparison to a single speaker condition (Rost & McMurray [2009]Developmental Science, 12, 339-349). The current study further extends these results and assesses how different kinds of input variability affect 14-month-olds' minimal pair learning in the habituation-switch paradigm testing German learning infants. The first two experiments investigated word learning when the labels were spoken by a single speaker versus when the labels were spoken by multiple speakers. In the third experiment we studied whether non-acoustic variability, implemented by visual variability of the objects presented together with the labels, would also affect minimal pair learning. We found enhanced learning in the multiple speakers compared to the single speaker condition, confirming previous findings with English-learning infants. In contrast, visual variability of the presented objects did not support learning. These findings both confirm and better delimit the beneficial role of speech-specific variability in minimal pair learning. Finally, we review different proposals on the mechanisms via which variability confers benefits to learning and outline what may be likely principles that underlie this benefit. We highlight among these the multiplicity of acoustic cues signalling phonemic contrasts and the presence of relations among these cues. It is in these relations where we trace part of the source for the apparent paradoxical benefit of variability in learning.
Only the right noise?
(2020)
Seminal work by Werker and colleagues (Stager & Werker [1997]Nature, 388, 381-382) has found that 14-month-old infants do not show evidence for learning minimal pairs in the habituation-switch paradigm. However, when multiple speakers produce the minimal pair in acoustically variable ways, infants' performance improves in comparison to a single speaker condition (Rost & McMurray [2009]Developmental Science, 12, 339-349). The current study further extends these results and assesses how different kinds of input variability affect 14-month-olds' minimal pair learning in the habituation-switch paradigm testing German learning infants. The first two experiments investigated word learning when the labels were spoken by a single speaker versus when the labels were spoken by multiple speakers. In the third experiment we studied whether non-acoustic variability, implemented by visual variability of the objects presented together with the labels, would also affect minimal pair learning. We found enhanced learning in the multiple speakers compared to the single speaker condition, confirming previous findings with English-learning infants. In contrast, visual variability of the presented objects did not support learning. These findings both confirm and better delimit the beneficial role of speech-specific variability in minimal pair learning. Finally, we review different proposals on the mechanisms via which variability confers benefits to learning and outline what may be likely principles that underlie this benefit. We highlight among these the multiplicity of acoustic cues signalling phonemic contrasts and the presence of relations among these cues. It is in these relations where we trace part of the source for the apparent paradoxical benefit of variability in learning.
Word forms such as walked or walker are decomposed into their morphological constituents (walk + -ed/-er) during language comprehension. Yet, the efficiency of morphological decomposition seems to vary for different languages and morphological types, as well as for first and second language speakers. The current study reports results from a visual masked priming experiment focusing on different types of derived word forms (specifically prefixed vs. suffixed) in first and second language speakers of German. We compared the present findings with results from previous studies on inflection and compounding and proposed an account of morphological decomposition that captures both the variability and the consistency of morphological decomposition for different morphological types and for first and second language speakers. Open Practices This article has been awarded an Open Materials badge. Study materials are publicly accessible via the Open Science Framework at . Learn more about the Open Practices badges from the Center for Open Science.
In this article, I give an overview on nativist street protests in Germany from the early nineteenth century to the present from an historical perspective. In a preliminary re-mark, I will reflect on some recent developments in Germany, where nativist protest campaigns against immigration took place in the streets when voters were turning towards the populist radical right party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). In the first section, I will outline an older tradition of anti-immigration protest in nineteenth and early twentieth century Germany, which is closely connected to modern antisemitism. In sections two and three, I will retrace how, from the late 1960s onward, the far right in the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) discovered concerns about immigra-tion in the German population, addressed them in protest campaigns and developed narratives to integrate such sentiments into a broader right-wing extremist ideology, itself deeply rooted in antisemitism. Studying nativism and the radical right from an actor-oriented perspective, I will focus on traditionalist movements, including the Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands (NPD) and neo-Nazi groups.
This study addresses the question of whether and how growing up with more than one language shapes a child's language impairment. Our focus is on Specific Language Impairment (SLI) in bilingual (Turkish-German) children. We specifically investigated a range of phenomena related to the so-called CP (Complementizer Phrase) in German, the hierarchically highest layer of syntactic clause structure, which has been argued to be particularly affected in children with SLI. Spontaneous speech data were examined from bilingual children with SLI in comparison to two comparison groups: (i) typically-developing bilingual children, (ii) monolingual children with SLI. We found that despite persistent difficulty with subject-verb agreement, the two groups of children with SLI did not show any impairment of the CP-domain. We conclude that while subject-verb agreement is a suitable linguistic marker of SLI in German-speaking children, for both monolingual and bilingual ones, 'vulnerability of the CP-domain' is not.
This study addresses the question of whether and how growing up with more than one language shapes a child's language impairment. Our focus is on Specific Language Impairment (SLI) in bilingual (Turkish-German) children. We specifically investigated a range of phenomena related to the so-called CP (Complementizer Phrase) in German, the hierarchically highest layer of syntactic clause structure, which has been argued to be particularly affected in children with SLI. Spontaneous speech data were examined from bilingual children with SLI in comparison to two comparison groups: (i) typically-developing bilingual children, (ii) monolingual children with SLI. We found that despite persistent difficulty with subject-verb agreement, the two groups of children with SLI did not show any impairment of the CP-domain. We conclude that while subject-verb agreement is a suitable linguistic marker of SLI in German-speaking children, for both monolingual and bilingual ones, 'vulnerability of the CP-domain' is not.
Real-world scene perception is typically studied in the laboratory using static picture viewing with restrained head position. Consequently, the transfer of results obtained in this paradigm to real-word scenarios has been questioned. The advancement of mobile eye-trackers and the progress in image processing, however, permit a more natural experimental setup that, at the same time, maintains the high experimental control from the standard laboratory setting. We investigated eye movements while participants were standing in front of a projector screen and explored images under four specific task instructions. Eye movements were recorded with a mobile eye-tracking device and raw gaze data were transformed from head-centered into image-centered coordinates. We observed differences between tasks in temporal and spatial eye-movement parameters and found that the bias to fixate images near the center differed between tasks. Our results demonstrate that current mobile eye-tracking technology and a highly controlled design support the study of fine-scaled task dependencies in an experimental setting that permits more natural viewing behavior than the static picture viewing paradigm.
In his essay, Mel Ainscow looks at inclusion and equity from an international perspective and makes suggestions on how to develop inclusive education in a ‘whole-system approach’. After discussing different conceptions of inclusion and equity, he describes international policies which address them. From this international macro-level, Ainscow zooms in to the meso-level of the school and its immediate environment, defining dimensions to be considered for an inclusive school development. One of these dimensions is the ‘use of evidence’. In my comment, I want to focus on this dimension and discuss its scope and the potential to apply it in inclusive education development. As a first and important precondition, Ainscow explains that different circumstances lead to different linguistic uses of the term ‘inclusive education’. Thus, the term ‘inclusive education’ does not refer to an identical set of objectives across countries, and neither does the term ‘equity’.
In his essay, Mel Ainscow looks at inclusion and equity from an international perspective and makes suggestions on how to develop inclusive education in a ‘whole-system approach’. After discussing different conceptions of inclusion and equity, he describes international policies which address them. From this international macro-level, Ainscow zooms in to the meso-level of the school and its immediate environment, defining dimensions to be considered for an inclusive school development. One of these dimensions is the ‘use of evidence’. In my comment, I want to focus on this dimension and discuss its scope and the potential to apply it in inclusive education development. As a first and important precondition, Ainscow explains that different circumstances lead to different linguistic uses of the term ‘inclusive education’. Thus, the term ‘inclusive education’ does not refer to an identical set of objectives across countries, and neither does the term ‘equity’.
Rats are a reservoir of human- and livestock-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). However, the composition of the natural S. aureus population in wild and laboratory rats is largely unknown. Here, 144 nasal S. aureus isolates from free-living wild rats, captive wild rats and laboratory rats were genotyped and profiled for antibiotic resistances and human-specific virulence genes. The nasal S. aureus carriage rate was higher among wild rats (23.4%) than laboratory rats (12.3%). Free-living wild rats were primarily colonized with isolates of clonal complex (CC) 49 and CC130 and maintained these strains even in husbandry. Moreover, upon livestock contact, CC398 isolates were acquired. In contrast, laboratory rats were colonized with many different S. aureus lineages—many of which are commonly found in humans. Five captive wild rats were colonized with CC398-MRSA. Moreover, a single CC30-MRSA and two CC130-MRSA were detected in free-living or captive wild rats. Rat-derived S. aureus isolates rarely harbored the phage-carried immune evasion gene cluster or superantigen genes, suggesting long-term adaptation to their host. Taken together, our study revealed a natural S. aureus population in wild rats, as well as a colonization pressure on wild and laboratory rats by exposure to livestock- and human-associated S. aureus, respectively.
Rats are a reservoir of human- and livestock-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). However, the composition of the natural S. aureus population in wild and laboratory rats is largely unknown. Here, 144 nasal S. aureus isolates from free-living wild rats, captive wild rats and laboratory rats were genotyped and profiled for antibiotic resistances and human-specific virulence genes. The nasal S. aureus carriage rate was higher among wild rats (23.4%) than laboratory rats (12.3%). Free-living wild rats were primarily colonized with isolates of clonal complex (CC) 49 and CC130 and maintained these strains even in husbandry. Moreover, upon livestock contact, CC398 isolates were acquired. In contrast, laboratory rats were colonized with many different S. aureus lineages—many of which are commonly found in humans. Five captive wild rats were colonized with CC398-MRSA. Moreover, a single CC30-MRSA and two CC130-MRSA were detected in free-living or captive wild rats. Rat-derived S. aureus isolates rarely harbored the phage-carried immune evasion gene cluster or superantigen genes, suggesting long-term adaptation to their host. Taken together, our study revealed a natural S. aureus population in wild rats, as well as a colonization pressure on wild and laboratory rats by exposure to livestock- and human-associated S. aureus, respectively.
Viper
(2021)
Key-value stores (KVSs) have found wide application in modern software systems. For persistence, their data resides in slow secondary storage, which requires KVSs to employ various techniques to increase their read and write performance from and to the underlying medium. Emerging persistent memory (PMem) technologies offer data persistence at close-to-DRAM speed, making them a promising alternative to classical disk-based storage. However, simply drop-in replacing existing storage with PMem does not yield good results, as block-based access behaves differently in PMem than on disk and ignores PMem's byte addressability, layout, and unique performance characteristics. In this paper, we propose three PMem-specific access patterns and implement them in a hybrid PMem-DRAM KVS called Viper. We employ a DRAM-based hash index and a PMem-aware storage layout to utilize the random-write speed of DRAM and efficient sequential-write performance PMem. Our evaluation shows that Viper significantly outperforms existing KVSs for core KVS operations while providing full data persistence. Moreover, Viper outperforms existing PMem-only, hybrid, and disk-based KVSs by 4-18x for write workloads, while matching or surpassing their get performance.
RHEEMix in the data jungle
(2020)
Data analytics are moving beyond the limits of a single platform. In this paper, we present the cost-based optimizer of Rheem, an open-source cross-platform system that copes with these new requirements. The optimizer allocates the subtasks of data analytic tasks to the most suitable platforms. Our main contributions are: (i) a mechanism based on graph transformations to explore alternative execution strategies; (ii) a novel graph-based approach to determine efficient data movement plans among subtasks and platforms; and (iii) an efficient plan enumeration algorithm, based on a novel enumeration algebra. We extensively evaluate our optimizer under diverse real tasks. We show that our optimizer can perform tasks more than one order of magnitude faster when using multiple platforms than when using a single platform.
Objective:
Stunting (height-for-age < −2 SD) is one of the forms of undernutrition and is frequent among children of low- and middle-income countries. But stunting perSe is not a synonym of undernutrition. We investigated association between body height and indicators of energetic undernutrition at three critical thresholds for thinness used in public health: (1) BMI SDS < −2; (2) mid-upper arm circumference divided by height (MUAC (mm) × 10/height (cm) < 1·36) and (3) mean skinfold thickness (SF) < 7 mm and to question the reliability of thresholds as indicators of undernutrition.
Design:
Cross-sectional study; breakpoint analysis.
Setting:
Rural and urban regions of Indonesia and Guatemala – different socio-economic status (SES).
Participants:
1716 Indonesian children (6·0–13·2 years) and 3838 Guatemalan children (4·0–18·9 years) with up to 50 % stunted children.
Results:
When separating the regression of BMI, MUAC or SF, on height into distinguishable segments (breakpoint analysis), we failed to detect relevant associations between height, and BMI, MUAC or SF, even in the thinnest and shortest children. For BMI and SF, the breakpoint analysis either failed to reach statistical significance or distinguished at breakpoints above critical thresholds. For MUAC, the breakpoint analysis yielded negative associations between MUAC/h and height in thin individuals. Only in high SES Guatemalan children, SF and height appeared mildly associated with R2 = 0·017.
Conclusions:
Currently used lower thresholds of height-for-age (stunting) do not show relevant associations with anthropometric indicators of energetic undernutrition. We recommend using the catch-up growth spurt during early re-feeding instead as immediate and sensitive indicator of past undernourishment. We discuss the primacy of education and social-economic-political-emotional circumstances as responsible factors for stunting.
Bayesian geomorphology
(2020)
The rapidly growing amount and diversity of data are confronting us more than ever with the need to make informed predictions under uncertainty. The adverse impacts of climate change and natural hazards also motivate our search for reliable predictions. The range of statistical techniques that geomorphologists use to tackle this challenge has been growing, but rarely involves Bayesian methods. Instead, many geomorphic models rely on estimated averages that largely miss out on the variability of form and process. Yet seemingly fixed estimates of channel heads, sediment rating curves or glacier equilibrium lines, for example, are all prone to uncertainties. Neighbouring scientific disciplines such as physics, hydrology or ecology have readily embraced Bayesian methods to fully capture and better explain such uncertainties, as the necessary computational tools have advanced greatly. The aim of this article is to introduce the Bayesian toolkit to scientists concerned with Earth surface processes and landforms, and to show how geomorphic models might benefit from probabilistic concepts. I briefly review the use of Bayesian reasoning in geomorphology, and outline the corresponding variants of regression and classification in several worked examples.
What Colin Reynolds could tell us about nutrient limitation, N:P ratios and eutrophication control
(2020)
Colin Reynolds exquisitely consolidated our understanding of driving forces shaping phytoplankton communities and those setting the upper limit to biomass yield, with limitation typically shifting from light in winter to phosphorus in spring. Nonetheless, co-limitation is frequently postulated from enhanced growth responses to enrichments with both N and P or from N:P ranging around the Redfield ratio, concluding a need to reduce both N and P in order to mitigate eutrophication. Here, we review the current understanding of limitation through N and P and of co-limitation. We conclude that Reynolds is still correct: (i) Liebig's law of the minimum holds and reducing P is sufficient, provided concentrations achieved are low enough; (ii) analyses of nutrient limitation need to exclude evidently non-limiting situations, i.e. where soluble P exceeds 3-10 mu g/l, dissolved N exceeds 100-130 mu g/l and total P and N support high biomass levels with self-shading causing light limitation; (iii) additionally decreasing N to limiting concentrations may be useful in specific situations (e.g. shallow waterbodies with high internal P and pronounced denitrification); (iv) management decisions require local, situation-specific assessments. The value of research on stoichiometry and co-limitation lies in promoting our understanding of phytoplankton ecophysiology and community ecology.
Poly(N,N-bis(2-methoxyethyl)acrylamide) (PbMOEAm) featuring two classical chemical motifs from non-ionic water-soluble polymers, namely, the amide and ethyleneglycolether moieties, was synthesized by reversible addition fragmentation transfer (RAFT) polymerization. This tertiary polyacrylamide is thermoresponsive exhibiting a lower critical solution temperature (LCST)-type phase transition. A series of homo- and block copolymers with varying molar masses but low dispersities and different end groups were prepared. Their thermoresponsive behavior in aqueous solution was analyzed via turbidimetry and dynamic light scattering (DLS). The cloud points (CP) increased with increasing molar masses, converging to 46 degrees C for 1 wt% solutions. This rise is attributed to the polymers' hydrophobic end groups incorporated via the RAFT agents. When a surfactant-like strongly hydrophobic end group was attached using a functional RAFT agent, CP was lowered to 42 degrees C, i.e., closer to human body temperature. Also, the effect of added salts, in particular, the role of the Hofmeister series, on the phase transition of PbMOEAm was investigated, exemplified for the kosmotropic fluoride, intermediate chloride, and chaotropic thiocyanate anions. A pronounced shift of the cloud point of about 10 degrees C to lower or higher temperatures was observed for 0.2 M fluoride and thiocyanate, respectively. When PbMOEAm was attached to a long hydrophilic block of poly(N,N-dimethylacrylamide) (PDMAm), the cloud points of these block copolymers were strongly shifted towards higher temperatures. While no phase transition was observed for PDMAm-b-pbMOEAm with short thermoresponsive blocks, block copolymers with about equally sized PbMOEAm and PDMAm blocks underwent the coil-to-globule transition around 60 degrees C.
Strong hydroclimatic controls on vulnerability to subsurface nitrate contamination across Europe
(2020)
Subsurface contamination due to excessive nutrient surpluses is a persistent and widespread problem in agricultural areas across Europe. The vulnerability of a particular location to pollution from reactive solutes, such as nitrate, is determined by the interplay between hydrologic transport and biogeochemical transformations. Current studies on the controls of subsurface vulnerability do not consider the transient behaviour of transport dynamics in the root zone. Here, using state-of-the-art hydrologic simulations driven by observed hydroclimatic forcing, we demonstrate the strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity of hydrologic transport dynamics and reveal that these dynamics are primarily controlled by the hydroclimatic gradient of the aridity index across Europe. Contrasting the space-time dynamics of transport times with reactive timescales of denitrification in soil indicate that similar to 75% of the cultivated areas across Europe are potentially vulnerable to nitrate leaching for at least onethird of the year. We find that neglecting the transient nature of transport and reaction timescale results in a great underestimation of the extent of vulnerable regions by almost 50%. Therefore, future vulnerability and risk assessment studies must account for the transient behaviour of transport and biogeochemical transformation processes.
Strong hydroclimatic controls on vulnerability to subsurface nitrate contamination across Europe
(2020)
Subsurface contamination due to excessive nutrient surpluses is a persistent and widespread problem in agricultural areas across Europe. The vulnerability of a particular location to pollution from reactive solutes, such as nitrate, is determined by the interplay between hydrologic transport and biogeochemical transformations. Current studies on the controls of subsurface vulnerability do not consider the transient behaviour of transport dynamics in the root zone. Here, using state-of-the-art hydrologic simulations driven by observed hydroclimatic forcing, we demonstrate the strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity of hydrologic transport dynamics and reveal that these dynamics are primarily controlled by the hydroclimatic gradient of the aridity index across Europe. Contrasting the space-time dynamics of transport times with reactive timescales of denitrification in soil indicate that similar to 75% of the cultivated areas across Europe are potentially vulnerable to nitrate leaching for at least onethird of the year. We find that neglecting the transient nature of transport and reaction timescale results in a great underestimation of the extent of vulnerable regions by almost 50%. Therefore, future vulnerability and risk assessment studies must account for the transient behaviour of transport and biogeochemical transformation processes.
Objective:
Stunting (height-for-age < −2 SD) is one of the forms of undernutrition and is frequent among children of low- and middle-income countries. But stunting perSe is not a synonym of undernutrition. We investigated association between body height and indicators of energetic undernutrition at three critical thresholds for thinness used in public health: (1) BMI SDS < −2; (2) mid-upper arm circumference divided by height (MUAC (mm) × 10/height (cm) < 1·36) and (3) mean skinfold thickness (SF) < 7 mm and to question the reliability of thresholds as indicators of undernutrition.
Design:
Cross-sectional study; breakpoint analysis.
Setting:
Rural and urban regions of Indonesia and Guatemala – different socio-economic status (SES).
Participants:
1716 Indonesian children (6·0–13·2 years) and 3838 Guatemalan children (4·0–18·9 years) with up to 50 % stunted children.
Results:
When separating the regression of BMI, MUAC or SF, on height into distinguishable segments (breakpoint analysis), we failed to detect relevant associations between height, and BMI, MUAC or SF, even in the thinnest and shortest children. For BMI and SF, the breakpoint analysis either failed to reach statistical significance or distinguished at breakpoints above critical thresholds. For MUAC, the breakpoint analysis yielded negative associations between MUAC/h and height in thin individuals. Only in high SES Guatemalan children, SF and height appeared mildly associated with R2 = 0·017.
Conclusions:
Currently used lower thresholds of height-for-age (stunting) do not show relevant associations with anthropometric indicators of energetic undernutrition. We recommend using the catch-up growth spurt during early re-feeding instead as immediate and sensitive indicator of past undernourishment. We discuss the primacy of education and social-economic-political-emotional circumstances as responsible factors for stunting.
Forage availability has been suggested as one driver of the observed decline in honey bees. However, little is known about the effects of its spatiotemporal variation on colony success. We present a modeling framework for assessing honey bee colony viability in cropping systems. Based on two real farmland structures, we developed a landscape generator to design cropping systems varying in crop species identity, diversity, and relative abundance. The landscape scenarios generated were evaluated using the existing honey bee colony model BEEHAVE, which links foraging to in-hive dynamics. We thereby explored how different cropping systems determine spatiotemporal forage availability and, in turn, honey bee colony viability (e.g., time to extinction, TTE) and resilience (indicated by, e.g., brood mortality). To assess overall colony viability, we developed metrics,P(H)andP(P,)which quantified how much nectar and pollen provided by a cropping system per year was converted into a colony's adult worker population. Both crop species identity and diversity determined the temporal continuity in nectar and pollen supply and thus colony viability. Overall farmland structure and relative crop abundance were less important, but details mattered. For monocultures and for four-crop species systems composed of cereals, oilseed rape, maize, and sunflower,P(H)andP(P)were below the viability threshold. Such cropping systems showed frequent, badly timed, and prolonged forage gaps leading to detrimental cascading effects on life stages and in-hive work force, which critically reduced colony resilience. Four-crop systems composed of rye-grass-dandelion pasture, trefoil-grass pasture, sunflower, and phacelia ensured continuous nectar and pollen supply resulting in TTE > 5 yr, andP(H)(269.5 kg) andP(P)(108 kg) being above viability thresholds for 5 yr. Overall, trefoil-grass pasture, oilseed rape, buckwheat, and phacelia improved the temporal continuity in forage supply and colony's viability. Our results are hypothetical as they are obtained from simplified landscape settings, but they nevertheless match empirical observations, in particular the viability threshold. Our framework can be used to assess the effects of cropping systems on honey bee viability and to develop land-use strategies that help maintain pollination services by avoiding prolonged and badly timed forage gaps.
Forage availability has been suggested as one driver of the observed decline in honey bees. However, little is known about the effects of its spatiotemporal variation on colony success. We present a modeling framework for assessing honey bee colony viability in cropping systems. Based on two real farmland structures, we developed a landscape generator to design cropping systems varying in crop species identity, diversity, and relative abundance. The landscape scenarios generated were evaluated using the existing honey bee colony model BEEHAVE, which links foraging to in-hive dynamics. We thereby explored how different cropping systems determine spatiotemporal forage availability and, in turn, honey bee colony viability (e.g., time to extinction, TTE) and resilience (indicated by, e.g., brood mortality). To assess overall colony viability, we developed metrics,P(H)andP(P,)which quantified how much nectar and pollen provided by a cropping system per year was converted into a colony's adult worker population. Both crop species identity and diversity determined the temporal continuity in nectar and pollen supply and thus colony viability. Overall farmland structure and relative crop abundance were less important, but details mattered. For monocultures and for four-crop species systems composed of cereals, oilseed rape, maize, and sunflower,P(H)andP(P)were below the viability threshold. Such cropping systems showed frequent, badly timed, and prolonged forage gaps leading to detrimental cascading effects on life stages and in-hive work force, which critically reduced colony resilience. Four-crop systems composed of rye-grass-dandelion pasture, trefoil-grass pasture, sunflower, and phacelia ensured continuous nectar and pollen supply resulting in TTE > 5 yr, andP(H)(269.5 kg) andP(P)(108 kg) being above viability thresholds for 5 yr. Overall, trefoil-grass pasture, oilseed rape, buckwheat, and phacelia improved the temporal continuity in forage supply and colony's viability. Our results are hypothetical as they are obtained from simplified landscape settings, but they nevertheless match empirical observations, in particular the viability threshold. Our framework can be used to assess the effects of cropping systems on honey bee viability and to develop land-use strategies that help maintain pollination services by avoiding prolonged and badly timed forage gaps.
In this paper, we develop the mathematical tools needed to explore isotopy classes of tilings on hyperbolic surfaces of finite genus, possibly nonorientable, with boundary, and punctured. More specifically, we generalize results on Delaney-Dress combinatorial tiling theory using an extension of mapping class groups to orbifolds, in turn using this to study tilings of covering spaces of orbifolds. Moreover, we study finite subgroups of these mapping class groups. Our results can be used to extend the Delaney-Dress combinatorial encoding of a tiling to yield a finite symbol encoding the complexity of an isotopy class of tilings. The results of this paper provide the basis for a complete and unambiguous enumeration of isotopically distinct tilings of hyperbolic surfaces.
The aim of this study was to assess the ability of the FFQ to describe reliable and valid dietary pattern (DP) scores. In a total of 134 participants of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Potsdam study aged 35-67 years, the FFQ was applied twice (baseline and after 1 year) to assess its reliability. Between November 1995 and March 1997, twelve 24-h dietary recalls (24HDR) as reference instrument were applied to assess the validity of the FFQ. Exploratory DP were derived by principal component analyses. Investigated predefined DP were the Alternative Healthy Eating Index (AHEI) and two Mediterranean diet indices. From dietary data of each FFQ, two exploratory DP were retained, but differed in highly loading food groups, resulting in moderate correlations (r 0 center dot 45-0 center dot 58). The predefined indices showed higher correlations between the FFQ (r(AHEI) 0 center dot 62, r(Mediterranean Diet Pyramid Index (MedPyr)) 0 center dot 62 and r(traditional Mediterranean Diet Score (tMDS)) 0 center dot 51). From 24HDR dietary data, one exploratory DP retained differed in composition to the first FFQ-based DP, but showed similarities to the second DP, reflected by a good correlation (r 0 center dot 70). The predefined DP correlated moderately (r 0 center dot 40-0 center dot 60). To conclude, long-term analyses on exploratory DP should be interpreted with caution, due to only moderate reliability. The validity differed extensively for the two exploratory DP. The investigated predefined DP showed a better reliability and a moderate validity, comparable to other studies. Within the two Mediterranean diet indices, the MedPyr performed better than the tMDs in this middle-aged, semi-urban German study population.
The aim of this study was to assess the ability of the FFQ to describe reliable and valid dietary pattern (DP) scores. In a total of 134 participants of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Potsdam study aged 35-67 years, the FFQ was applied twice (baseline and after 1 year) to assess its reliability. Between November 1995 and March 1997, twelve 24-h dietary recalls (24HDR) as reference instrument were applied to assess the validity of the FFQ. Exploratory DP were derived by principal component analyses. Investigated predefined DP were the Alternative Healthy Eating Index (AHEI) and two Mediterranean diet indices. From dietary data of each FFQ, two exploratory DP were retained, but differed in highly loading food groups, resulting in moderate correlations (r 0 center dot 45-0 center dot 58). The predefined indices showed higher correlations between the FFQ (r(AHEI) 0 center dot 62, r(Mediterranean Diet Pyramid Index (MedPyr)) 0 center dot 62 and r(traditional Mediterranean Diet Score (tMDS)) 0 center dot 51). From 24HDR dietary data, one exploratory DP retained differed in composition to the first FFQ-based DP, but showed similarities to the second DP, reflected by a good correlation (r 0 center dot 70). The predefined DP correlated moderately (r 0 center dot 40-0 center dot 60). To conclude, long-term analyses on exploratory DP should be interpreted with caution, due to only moderate reliability. The validity differed extensively for the two exploratory DP. The investigated predefined DP showed a better reliability and a moderate validity, comparable to other studies. Within the two Mediterranean diet indices, the MedPyr performed better than the tMDs in this middle-aged, semi-urban German study population.
Krisenvorstellungen
(2022)
Der Beitrag stellt zentrale Ergebnisse der qualitativen Untersuchung zum Thema „Gesellschaftliche Herausforderungen im sozialen und im schulischen Raum“ dar. Dabei wird zunächst nur der erste Teil und damit das Erfahrungswissen im sozialen Raum beleuchtet. Neben einer kurzen Darstellung des theoretischen und methodischen Zugangs werden unterschiedliche Krisenverständnisse von Lehrer/-innen herausgestellt und auf sozialwissenschaftliche Erkenntnisse zurückgeführt. Der Rekurs auf die Krise(n) wird als Zugang genutzt, um gesellschaftliche He-rausforderungen zu identifizieren und Einschätzungen zu explizieren. In einem zweiten Schritt werden zwei Typen präsentiert, durch die exemplarisch konträre Vorstellungen zu unterschiedlichen gesellschaftlichen Herausforderungen und Krisen herausgestellt werden können. Durch die zwei Typen „progressive“ und „konservative Kritiker/-innen“ kann ein Spannungsfeld aufgemacht werden, auf dem die untersuchten Fälle verortet werden. Ziel ist es, Erfahrungswissen und die gesellschaftlichen Sichtweisen wie auch politischen Überzeugungen sichtbar und vergleichbar werden zu lassen. Diese bilden die Grundlage, um anschließend zu untersuchen, wie sich Vorstellungen und Überzeugungen auch im schulischen Raum wiederfinden lassen. Ein erster Einblick wird am Ende des Beitrags durch die Darstellung eines exemplarischen Falls gewährt.
Across continental Europe, educational research samples are often divided by 'migrant background', a binary variable criticized for masking participant heterogeneity and reinforcing exclusionary norms of belonging.
This study endorses more meaningful, representative, and precise research by offering four guiding questions for selecting relevant, social justice oriented, and feasible social categories for collecting and analysing data in psychological and educational research. Using a preregistered empirical example, we first compare selected social categories ('migrant background', family heritage, religion, citizenship, cultural identification, and generation status) in their potential to reveal participant heterogeneity.
Second, we investigate differences in means and relations between variables (discrimination experiences, perceived societal Islamophobia, and national identity) and academic motivation among 1335 adolescents in Germany (48% female, M-age = 14.69). Regression analyses and multigroup SEM revealed differential experiences with and implications of discrimination for academic motivation.
Results highlight the need for a deliberate, transparent use of social categories to make discrimination visible and centre participants' subjective experiences.
Despite public discourses highlighting the negative consequences of time spent online (TSO) for children's well-being, Norwegian children (aged 9-16 years) use the Internet more than other European children and score higher on self-reported life satisfaction (SRLS).
To explore the possibility that TSO might contribute to high life satisfaction or other underlying explanatory factors, we investigate the relationship between TSO and SRLS in Norway while also accounting for how individual, family, school, and broader social circumstances influence this relationship.
Countering prevailing discourses, we find a positive relationship between TSO and SRLS, which remains positive and significant even after a wider range of variables are accounted for.
By explaining the circumstances under which TSO has a positive effect on SRLS, this article provides evidence of the complex role that digital technology plays in the lives of children.
It also provides a critique of the often simplistic arguments found in public discourses around children's digital media use.
States, in their conflicts with militant groups embedded in civilian populations, often resort to policies of collective punishment to erode civilian support for the militants. We attempt to evaluate the efficacy of such policies in the context of the Gaza Strip, where Israel's blockade and military interventions, purportedly intended to erode support for Hamas, have inflicted hardship on the civilian population.
We combine Palestinian public opinion data, Palestinian labor force surveys, and Palestinian fatalities data, to understand the relationship between exposure to Israeli policies and Palestinian support for militant factions.
Our baseline strategy is a difference-in-differences specification that compares the gap in public opinion between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank during periods of intense punishment with the gap during periods when punishment is eased. Consistent with previous research, we find that Palestinian fatalities are associated with Palestinian support for more militant political factions. The effect is short-lived, however, dissipating after merely one quarter.
Moreover, the blockade of Gaza itself appears to be only weakly associated with support for militant factions. Overall, we find little evidence to suggest that Israeli security policies toward the Gaza Strip have any substantial lasting effect on Gazan support for militant factions, neither deterring nor provoking them relative to their West Bank counterparts.
Our findings therefore call into question the logic of Israel's continued security policies toward Gaza, while prompting a wider re-examination of the efficacy of deterrence strategies in other asymmetric conflicts.
We present a chronology framework named LegacyAge 1.0 containing harmonized chronologies for 2831 pollen records (downloaded from the Neotoma Paleoecology Database and the supplementary Asian datasets) together with their age control points and metadata in machine-readable data formats.
All chronologies use the Bayesian framework implemented in Bacon version 2.5.3. Optimal parameter settings of priors (accumulation.shape, memory.strength, memory.mean, accumulation.rate, and thickness) were identified based on information in the original publication or iteratively after preliminary model inspection.
The most common control points for the chronologies are radiocarbon dates (86.1 %), calibrated by the latest calibration curves (IntCal20 and SHCal20 for the terrestrial radiocarbon dates in the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere and Marine20 for marine materials).
The original publications were consulted when dealing with outliers and inconsistencies. Several major challenges when setting up the chronologies included the waterline issue (18.8% of records), reservoir effect (4.9 %), and sediment deposition discontinuity (4.4 %).
Finally, we numerically compare the LegacyAge 1.0 chronologies to those published in the original publications and show that the reliability of the chronologies of 95.4% of records could be improved according to our assessment.
Our chronology framework and revised chronologies provide the opportunity to make use of the ages and age uncertainties in synthesis studies of, for example, pollen-based vegetation and climate change.
The LegacyAge 1.0 dataset, including metadata, datings, harmonized chronologies, and R code used, is openaccess and available at PANGAEA (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.933132; Li et al., 2021) and Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5815192; Li et al., 2022), respectively.
Predicting the electron population of Earth's ring current during geomagnetic storms still remains a challenging task.
In this work, we investigate the sensitivity of 10 keV ring current electrons to different driving processes, parameterised by the Kp index, during several moderate and intense storms.
Results are validated against measurements from the Van Allen Probes satellites. Perturbing the Kp index allows us to identify the most dominant processes for moderate and intense storms respectively.
We find that during moderate storms (Kp < 6) the drift velocities mostly control the behaviour of low energy electrons, while loss from wave-particle interactions is the most critical parameter for quantifying the evolution of intense storms (Kp > 6). Perturbations of the Kp index used to drive the boundary conditions at GEO and set the plasmapause location only show a minimal effect on simulation results over a limited L range.
It is further shown that the flux at L & SIM; 3 is more sensitive to changes in the Kp index compared to higher L shells, making it a good proxy for validating the source-loss balance of a ring current model.
Motivated by recent epidemic outbreaks, including those of COVID-19, we solve the canonical problem of calculating the dynamics and likelihood of extensive outbreaks in a population within a large class of stochastic epidemic models with demographic noise, including the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and its general extensions.
In the limit of large populations, we compute the probability distribution for all extensive outbreaks, including those that entail unusually large or small (extreme) proportions of the population infected.
Our approach reveals that, unlike other well-known examples of rare events occurring in discrete-state stochastic systems, the statistics of extreme outbreaks emanate from a full continuum of Hamiltonian paths, each satisfying unique boundary conditions with a conserved probability flux.