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Natural extreme events are an integral part of nature on planet earth. Usually these events are only considered hazardous to humans, in case they are exposed. In this case, however, natural hazards can have devastating impacts on human societies. Especially hydro-meteorological hazards have a high damage potential in form of e.g. riverine and pluvial floods, winter storms, hurricanes and tornadoes, which can occur all over the globe. Along with an increasingly warm climate also an increase in extreme weather which potentially triggers natural hazards can be expected. Yet, not only changing natural systems, but also changing societal systems contribute to an increasing risk associated with these hazards. These can comprise increasing exposure and possibly also increasing vulnerability to the impacts of natural events. Thus, appropriate risk management is required to adapt all parts of society to existing and upcoming risks at various spatial scales. One essential part of risk management is the risk assessment including the estimation of the economic impacts. However, reliable methods for the estimation of economic impacts due to hydro-meteorological hazards are still missing. Therefore, this thesis deals with the question of how the reliability of hazard damage estimates can be improved, represented and propagated across all spatial scales. This question is investigated using the specific example of economic impacts to companies as a result of riverine floods in Germany.
Flood damage models aim to describe the damage processes during a given flood event. In other words they describe the vulnerability of a specific object to a flood. The models can be based on empirical data sets collected after flood events. In this thesis tree-based models trained with survey data are used for the estimation of direct economic flood impacts on the objects. It is found that these machine learning models, in conjunction with increasing sizes of data sets used to derive the models, outperform state-of-the-art damage models. However, despite the performance improvements induced by using multiple variables and more data points, large prediction errors remain at the object level. The occurrence of the high errors was explained by a further investigation using distributions derived from tree-based models. The investigation showed that direct economic impacts to individual objects cannot be modeled by a normal distribution. Yet, most state-of-the-art approaches assume a normal distribution and take mean values as point estimators. Subsequently, the predictions are unlikely values within the distributions resulting in high errors. At larger spatial scales more objects are considered for the damage estimation. This leads to a better fit of the damage estimates to a normal distribution. Consequently, also the performance of the point estimators get better, although large errors can still occur due to the variance of the normal distribution. It is recommended to use distributions instead of point estimates in order to represent the reliability of damage estimates.
In addition current approaches also mostly ignore the uncertainty associated with the characteristics of the hazard and the exposed objects. For a given flood event e.g. the estimation of the water level at a certain building is prone to uncertainties. Current approaches define exposed objects mostly by the use of land use data sets. These data sets often show inconsistencies, which introduce additional uncertainties. Furthermore, state-of-the-art approaches also imply problems of missing consistency when predicting the damage at different spatial scales. This is due to the use of different types of exposure data sets for model derivation and application. In order to face these issues a novel object-based method was developed in this thesis. The method enables a seamless estimation of hydro-meteorological hazard damage across spatial scales including uncertainty quantification. The application and validation of the method resulted in plausible estimations at all spatial scales without overestimating the uncertainty.
Mainly newly available data sets containing individual buildings make the application of the method possible as they allow for the identification of flood affected objects by overlaying the data sets with water masks. However, the identification of affected objects with two different water masks revealed huge differences in the number of identified objects. Thus, more effort is needed for their identification, since the number of objects affected determines the order of magnitude of the economic flood impacts to a large extent.
In general the method represents the uncertainties associated with the three components of risk namely hazard, exposure and vulnerability, in form of probability distributions. The object-based approach enables a consistent propagation of these uncertainties in space. Aside from the propagation of damage estimates and their uncertainties across spatial scales, a propagation between models estimating direct and indirect economic impacts was demonstrated. This enables the inclusion of uncertainties associated with the direct economic impacts within the estimation of the indirect economic impacts. Consequently, the modeling procedure facilitates the representation of the reliability of estimated total economic impacts. The representation of the estimates' reliability prevents reasoning based on a false certainty, which might be attributed to point estimates. Therefore, the developed approach facilitates a meaningful flood risk management and adaptation planning.
The successful post-event application and the representation of the uncertainties qualifies the method also for the use for future risk assessments. Thus, the developed method enables the representation of the assumptions made for the future risk assessments, which is crucial information for future risk management. This is an important step forward, since the representation of reliability associated with all components of risk is currently lacking in all state-of-the-art methods assessing future risk.
In conclusion, the use of object-based methods giving results in the form of distributions instead of point estimations is recommended. The improvement of the model performance by the means of multi-variable models and additional data points is possible, but small. Uncertainties associated with all components of damage estimation should be included and represented within the results. Furthermore, the findings of the thesis suggest that, at larger scales, the influence of the uncertainty associated with the vulnerability is smaller than those associated with the hazard and exposure. This leads to the conclusion that for an increased reliability of flood damage estimations and risk assessments, the improvement and active inclusion of hazard and exposure, including their uncertainties, is needed in addition to the improvements of the models describing the vulnerability of the objects.
Arctic warming has implications for the functioning of terrestrial Arctic ecosystems, global climate and socioeconomic systems of northern communities. A research gap exists in high spatial resolution monitoring and understanding of the seasonality of permafrost degradation, spring snowmelt and vegetation phenology. This thesis explores the diversity and utility of dense TerraSAR-X (TSX) X-Band time series for monitoring ice-rich riverbank erosion, snowmelt, and phenology of Arctic vegetation at long-term study sites in the central Lena Delta, Russia and on Qikiqtaruk (Herschel Island), Canada. In the thesis the following three research questions are addressed:
• Is TSX time series capable of monitoring the dynamics of rapid permafrost degradation in ice-rich permafrost on an intra-seasonal scale and can these datasets in combination with climate data identify the climatic drivers of permafrost degradation?
• Can multi-pass and multi-polarized TSX time series adequately monitor seasonal snow cover and snowmelt in small Arctic catchments and how does it perform compared to optical satellite data and field-based measurements?
• Do TSX time series reflect the phenology of Arctic vegetation and how does the recorded signal compare to in-situ greenness data from RGB time-lapse camera data and vegetation height from field surveys?
To answer the research questions three years of TSX backscatter data from 2013 to 2015 for the Lena Delta study site and from 2015 to 2017 for the Qikiqtaruk study site were used in quantitative and qualitative analysis complimentary with optical satellite data and in-situ time-lapse imagery.
The dynamics of intra-seasonal ice-rich riverbank erosion in the central Lena Delta, Russia were quantified using TSX backscatter data at 2.4 m spatial resolution in HH polarization and validated with 0.5 m spatial resolution optical satellite data and field-based time-lapse camera data. Cliff top lines were automatically extracted from TSX intensity images using threshold-based segmentation and vectorization and combined in a geoinformation system with manually digitized cliff top lines from the optical satellite data and rates of erosion extracted from time-lapse cameras. The results suggest that the cliff top eroded at a constant rate throughout the entire erosional season. Linear mixed models confirmed that erosion was coupled with air temperature and precipitation at an annual scale, seasonal fluctuations did not influence 22-day erosion rates. The results highlight the potential of HH polarized X-Band backscatter data for high temporal resolution monitoring of rapid permafrost degradation.
The distinct signature of wet snow in backscatter intensity images of TSX data was exploited to generate wet snow cover extent (SCE) maps on Qikiqtaruk at high temporal resolution. TSX SCE showed high similarity to Landsat 8-derived SCE when using cross-polarized VH data. Fractional snow cover (FSC) time series were extracted from TSX and optical SCE and compared to FSC estimations from in-situ time-lapse imagery. The TSX products showed strong agreement with the in-situ data and significantly improved the temporal resolution compared to the Landsat 8 time series. The final combined FSC time series revealed two topography-dependent snowmelt patterns that corresponded to in-situ measurements. Additionally TSX was able to detect snow patches longer in the season than Landsat 8, underlining the advantage of TSX for detection of old snow. The TSX-derived snow information provided valuable insights into snowmelt dynamics on Qikiqtaruk previously not available.
The sensitivity of TSX to vegetation structure associated with phenological changes was explored on Qikiqtaruk. Backscatter and coherence time series were compared to greenness data extracted from in-situ digital time-lapse cameras and detailed vegetation parameters on 30 areas of interest. Supporting previous results, vegetation height corresponded to backscatter intensity in co-polarized HH/VV at an incidence angle of 31°. The dry, tall shrub dominated ecological class showed increasing backscatter with increasing greenness when using the cross polarized VH/HH channel at 32° incidence angle. This is likely driven by volume scattering of emerging and expanding leaves. Ecological classes with more prostrate vegetation and higher bare ground contributions showed decreasing backscatter trends over the growing season in the co-polarized VV/HH channels likely a result of surface drying instead of a vegetation structure signal. The results from shrub dominated areas are promising and provide a complementary data source for high temporal monitoring of vegetation phenology.
Overall this thesis demonstrates that dense time series of TSX with optical remote sensing and in-situ time-lapse data are complementary and can be used to monitor rapid and seasonal processes in Arctic landscapes at high spatial and temporal resolution.
Basaltic fissure eruptions, such as on Hawai'i or on Iceland, are thought to be driven by the lateral propagation of feeder dikes and graben subsidence. Associated solid earth processes, such as deformation and structural development, are well studied by means of geophysical and geodetic technologies. The eruptions themselves, lava fountaining and venting dynamics, in turn, have been much less investigated due to hazardous access, local dimension, fast processes, and resulting poor data availability.
This thesis provides a detailed quantitative understanding of the shape and dynamics of lava fountains and the morphological changes at their respective eruption sites. For this purpose, I apply image processing techniques, including drones and fixed installed cameras, to the sequence of frames of video records from two well-known fissure eruptions in Hawai'i and Iceland. This way I extract the dimensions of multiple lava fountains, visible in all frames. By putting these results together and considering the acquisition times of the frames I quantify the variations in height, width and eruption velocity of the lava fountains. Then I analyse these time-series in both time and frequency domains and investigate the similarities and correlations between adjacent lava fountains. Following this procedure, I am able to link the dynamics of the individual lava fountains to physical parameters of the magma transport in the feeder dyke of the fountains.
The first case study in this thesis focuses on the March 2011 Pu'u'O'o eruption, Hawai'i, where a continuous pulsating behaviour at all eight lava fountains has been observed. The lava fountains, even those from different parts of the fissure that are closely connected, show a similar frequency content and eruption behaviour. The regular pattern in the heights of lava fountain suggests a controlling process within the magma feeder system like a hydraulic connection in the underlying dyke, affecting or even controlling the pulsating behaviour.
The second case study addresses the 2014-2015 Holuhraun fissure eruption, Iceland. In this case, the feeder dyke is highlighted by the surface expressions of graben-like structures and fault systems. At the eruption site, the activity decreases from a continuous line of fire of ~60 vents to a limited number of lava fountains. This can be explained by preferred upwards magma movements through vertical structures of the pre-eruptive morphology. Seismic tremors during the eruption reveal vent opening at the surface and/or pressure changes in the feeder dyke. The evolving topography of the cinder cones during the eruption interacts with the lava fountain behaviour. Local variations in the lava fountain height and width are controlled by the conduit diameter, the depth of the lava pond and the shape of the crater. Modelling of the fountain heights shows that long-term eruption behaviour is controlled mainly by pressure changes in the feeder dyke.
This research consists of six chapters with four papers, including two first author and two co-author papers. It establishes a new method to analyse lava fountain dynamics by video monitoring. The comparison with the seismicity, geomorphologic and structural expressions of fissure eruptions shows a complex relationship between focussed flow through dykes, the morphology of the cinder cones, and the lava fountain dynamics at the vents of a fissure eruption.