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A fine-grained slope that exhibits slow movement rates was investigated to understand how geohydrological processes contribute to a consecutive development of mass movements in the Vorarlberg Alps, Austria. For that purpose intensive hydrometeorological, hydrogeological and geotechnical observations as well as surveying of surface movement rates were conducted during 1998–2001. Subsurface water dynamics at the creeping slope turned out to be dominated by a three-dimensional pressure system. The pressure reaction is triggered by fast infiltration of surface water and subsequent lateral water flow in the south-western part of the hillslope. The related pressure signal was shown to propagate further downhill, causing fast reactions of the piezometric head at 5Ð5 m depth on a daily time scale. The observed pressure reactions might belong to a temporary hillslope water body that extends further downhill. The related buoyancy forces could be one of the driving forces for the mass movement. A physically based hydrological model was adopted to model simultaneously surface and subsurface water dynamics including evapotranspiration and runoff production. It was possible to reproduce surface runoff and observed pressure reactions in principle. However, as soil hydraulic functions were only estimated on pedotransfer functions, a quantitative comparison between observed and simulated subsurface dynamics is not feasible. Nevertheless, the results suggest that it is possible to reconstruct important spatial structures based on sparse observations in the field which allow reasonable simulations with a physically based hydrological model. Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. KEY WORDS rainfall-induced landslides; soil creep; hydrological modelling; Vorarlberg; Austria; pressure propagation
Predictability of hydrologic response at the plot and catchment scales: Role of initial conditions
(2004)
This paper examines the effect of uncertain initial soil moisture on hydrologic response at the plot scale (1 m2) and the catchment scale (3.6 km2) in the presence of threshold transitions between matrix and preferential flow. We adopt the concepts of microstates and macrostates from statistical mechanics. The microstates are the detailed patterns of initial soil moisture that are inherently unknown, while the macrostates are specified by the statistical distributions of initial soil moisture that can be derived from the measurements typically available in field experiments. We use a physically based model and ensure that it closely represents the processes in the Weiherbach catchment, Germany. We then use the model to generate hydrologic response to hypothetical irrigation events and rainfall events for multiple realizations of initial soil moisture microstates that are all consistent with the same macrostate. As the measures of uncertainty at the plot scale we use the coefficient of variation and the scaled range of simulated vertical bromide transport distances between realizations. At the catchment scale we use similar statistics derived from simulated flood peak discharges. The simulations indicate that at both scales the predictability depends on the average initial soil moisture state and is at a minimum around the soil moisture value where the transition from matrix to macropore flow occurs. The predictability increases with rainfall intensity. The predictability increases with scale with maximum absolute errors of 90 and 32% at the plot scale and the catchment scale, respectively. It is argued that even if we assume perfect knowledge on the processes, the level of detail with which one can measure the initial conditions along with the nonlinearity of the system will set limits to the repeatability of experiments and limits to the predictability of models at the plot and catchment scales.
It has recently been demonstrated that the presentation of a rare target in a visual oddball paradigm induces a prolonged inhibition of microsaccades. In the field of electrophysiology, the amplitude of the P300 component in event-related potentials (ERP) has been shown to be sensitive to the stimulus category (target vs. non target) of the eliciting stimulus, its overall probability, and the preceding stimulus sequence. In the present study we further specify the functional underpinnings of the prolonged microsaccadic inhibition in the visual oddball task, showing that the stimulus category, the frequency of a stimulus and the preceding stimulus sequence influence microsaccade rate. Furthermore, by co-recording ERPs and eye-movements, we were able to demonstrate that, despite being largely sensitive to the same experimental manipulation, the amplitude of P300 and the microsaccadic inhibition predict each other very weakly, and thus constitute two independent measures of the brain’s response to rare targets in the visual oddball paradigm.
Eye fixation durations during normal reading correlate with processing difficulty but the specific cognitive mechanisms reflected in these measures are not well understood. This study finds support in German readers’ eyefixations for two distinct difficulty metrics: surprisal, which reflects the change in probabilities across syntactic analyses as new words are integrated, and retrieval, which quantifies comprehension difficulty in terms of working memory constraints. We examine the predictions of both metrics using a family of dependency parsers indexed by an upper limit on the number of candidate syntactic analyses they retain at successive words. Surprisal models all fixation measures and regression probability. By contrast, retrieval does not model any measure in serial processing. As more candidate analyses are considered in parallel at each word, retrieval can account for the same measures as surprisal. This pattern suggests an important role for ranked parallelism in theories of sentence comprehension.
Parsing costs as predictors of reading difficulty: An evaluation using the Potsdam Sentence Corpus
(2008)
The surprisal of a word on a probabilistic grammar constitutes a promising complexity metric for human sentence comprehension difficulty. Using two different grammar types, surprisal is shown to have an effect on fixation durations and regression probabilities in a sample of German readers’ eye movements, the Potsdam Sentence Corpus. A linear mixed-effects model was used to quantify the effect of surprisal while taking into account unigram and bigram frequency, word length, and empirically-derived word predictability; the so-called “early” and “late” measures of processing difficulty both showed an effect of surprisal. Surprisal is also shown to have a small but statistically non-significant effect on empirically-derived predictability itself. This work thus demonstrates the importance of including parsing costs as a predictor of comprehension difficulty in models of reading, and suggests that a simple identification of syntactic parsing costs with early measures and late measures with durations of post-syntactic events may be difficult to uphold.
The boundary paradigm (Rayner, 1975) with a novel preview manipulation was used to examine the extent of parafoveal processing of words to the right of fixation. Words n+1 and n+2 had either correct or incorrect previews prior to fixation (prior to crossing the boundary location). In addition, the manipulation utilized either a high or low frequency word in word n+1 location on the assumption that it would be more likely that n+2 preview effects could be obtained when word n+1 was high frequency. The primary findings were that there was no evidence for a preview benefit for word n+2 and no evidence for parafoveal-on-foveal effects when word n+1 is at least four letters long. We discuss implications for models of eye-movement control in reading.
Parafoveal Load of Word N+1 Modulates Preprocessing Effectivenessof Word N+2 in Chinese Reading
(2010)
Preview benefits (PBs) from two words to the right of the fixated one (i.e., word N+2)and associated parafoveal-on-foveal effects are critical for proposals of distributed lexical processing during reading. This experiment examined parafoveal processing during reading of Chinese sentences, using a boundary manipulation of N+2-word preview with low- and high-frequency words N+1. The main findings were (a) an identity PB for word N+2 that was (b) primarily observed when word N+1 was of high frequency (i.e., an interaction between frequency of word N+1 and PB for word N+2), and (c) a parafoveal-on-foveal frequency effect of word N+1 for fixation durations on word N. We discuss implications for theories of serial attention shifts and parallel distributed processing of words during reading.
We examined individual differences in masked repetition priming by re-analyzing item-level response-time (RT) data from three experiments. Using a linear mixed model (LMM) with subjects and items specified as crossed random factors, the originally reported priming and word-frequency effects were recovered. In the same LMM, we estimated parameters describing the distributions of these effects across subjects. Subjects’ frequency and priming effects correlated positively with each other and negatively with mean RT. These correlation estimates, however, emerged only with a reciprocal transformation of RT (i.e., -1/RT), justified on the basis of distributional analyses. Different correlations, some with opposite sign, were obtained (1) for untransformed or logarithmic RTs or (2) when correlations were computed using within-subject analyses. We discuss the relevance of the new results for accounts of masked priming, implications of applying RT transformations, and the use of LMMs as a tool for the joint analysis of experimental effects and associated individual differences.
There has been a substantial increase in the percentage for publications with co-authors located in departments from different countries in 12 major journals of psychology. The results are evidence for a remarkable internationalization of psychological research, starting in the mid 1970s and increasing in rate at the beginning of the 1990s. This growth occurs against a constant number of articles with authors from the same country; it is not due to a concomitant increase in the number of co-authors per article. Thus, international collaboration in psychology is obviously on the rise.
Microsaccades are very small, involuntary flicks in eye position that occur on average once or twice per second during attempted visual fixation. Microsaccades give rise to EMG eye muscle spikes that can distort the spectrum of the scalp EEG and mimic increases in gamma band power. Here we demonstrate that microsaccades are also accompanied by genuine and sizeable cortical activity, manifested in the EEG. In three experiments, high-resolution eye movements were corecorded with the EEG: during sustained fixation of checkerboard and face stimuli and in a standard visual oddball task that required the counting of target stimuli. Results show that microsaccades as small as 0.15° generate a field potential over occipital cortex and midcentral scalp sites 100 –140 ms after movement onset, which resembles the visual lambda response evoked by larger voluntary saccades. This challenges the standard assumption of human brain imaging studies that saccade-related brain activity is precluded by fixation, even when fully complied with. Instead, additional cortical potentials from microsaccades were present in 86% of the oddball task trials and of similar amplitude as the visual response to stimulus onset. Furthermore, microsaccade probability varied systematically according to the proportion of target stimuli in the oddball task, causing modulations of late stimulus-locked event-related potential (ERP) components. Microsaccades present an unrecognized source of visual brain signal that is of interest for vision research and may have influenced the data of many ERP and neuroimaging studies.
The use of nano zerovalent iron (nZVI) for environmental remediation is a promising new technique for in situ remediation. Due to its high surface area and high reactivity, nZVI is able to dechlorinate organic contaminants and render them harmless. Limited mobility, due to fast aggregation and sedimentation of nZVI, limits the capability for source and plume remediation. Carbo-Iron is a newly developed material consisting of activated carbon particles (d50 = 0,8 µm) that are plated with nZVI particles. These particles combine the mobility of activated carbon and the reactivity of nZVI. This paper presents the first results of the transport experiments.
Am 8. August 2008 richtete sich alle mediale Aufmerksamkeit schlagartig von Beijing und den Olympischen Spielen auf den Kaukasus – genauer: auf Georgien. Unvorbereitet traf die Meldung über den Krieg im Kaukasus aber nur diejenigen, die glaubten, die „eingefrorenen Konflikte“ im Süden des Gebirgszuges seien beigelegt. Seit den Kriegen um die „abtrünnigen Teilrepubliken“ Georgiens, Südossetien und Abchasien, in den frühen 1990er Jahren sind diese jedoch nie zur Ruhe gekommen.
Wie beständig ist der Mythos „Barack Obama“? Klar ist: Der neue Präsident tritt ein schweres Erbe an. Herausforderungen wie die Wirtschaftskrise, schwierige außen- und sicherheitspolitische Gegebenheiten und die Beziehungen zu Russland warten auf ihn. Der Autor, ein exzellenter Kenner der USA und ehemaliger Diplomat, beleuchtet die Situation der Vereinigten Staaten nach der Wahl.
Blattgold : Pole Position
(2008)
Die Zukunft Osteuropas entscheidet sich im Spannungsfeld zwischen Russland und der EU. Die dortigen Staaten lösen sich aus der einseitigen Abhängigkeit eines erstarkten und seine Interessen im postsowjetischen Raum verteidigenden Russland. Ob die EU diese Chance in Osteuropa nutzen kann, hängt davon ab, ob sich die Mitgliedstaaten bereitfinden, ihre wirtschaftlichen und geopolitischen Interessen in der Region gemeinsam zu verfolgen.
Türkei : Daten und Fakten
(2008)
Atomare, biologische und chemische Waffen bedrohen das Überleben der Menschheit. Friedens- und Konfliktforscher Wolfgang Kötter aus Potsdam untersucht die differenzierten Ergebnisse bei der Beseitigung dieser Gefahr. Während die chemische Abrüstung, wenn auch mit Verzögerungen, voran kommt, fehlt dem Verbot der B-Waffen ein wirksames Kontrollinstrument. Atomare Waffen erleben sogar eine Renaissance und das nukleare Nichtverbreitungsregime droht zu zerbrechen.
Demokratie, nicht Laizismus um jeden Preis : zu den inneren Auseinandersetzungen in der Türkei
(2008)
Die innergesellschaftlichen Auseinandersetzungen in der Türkei drehen sich nicht darum, ob der Laizismus fortbestehen oder beseitigt werden soll. Stattdessen findet im Land ein politischer Machtkampf statt. Dabei geht es für die alten kemalistischen Eliten ums politische Überleben. Für die Vertreter der neuen bürgerlichen, religiös-konservativen Mittelschicht hingegen geht es um ihre Zukunft in einer globalisierten Welt.
Kaukasische Verwicklungen
(2008)
Seit den 1980er Jahren nehmen die neuen sozialen Bewegungen in Lateinamerika an Bedeutung rapide zu. Nachhaltige Transformationsprozesse auszulösen steht dabei seit den 1990er Jahren – in Zeiten neoliberaler Globalisierung und steigender Armut – im Zentrum gesellschaftlichen Handelns. Doch, angesichts der bestehenden globalen Strukturen, wie groß ist das Potenzial der neuen Welle sozialer Kräfte wirklich?
Geografie der Ungleichheit
(2008)
Irans zunehmender Einfluss als Regionalmacht wird wegen seines Atomprogramms und seiner antiwestlichen Politik als Störfaktor bewertet. Die offensive Rhetorik Teherans zielt primär darauf ab, möglichen Gefahren entgegenzutreten. Westliche Politik sollte das allseitig bestehende Interesse an regionaler Stabilität nutzen, um seine ausschließlich auf Eindämmung bedachte Politik zu überwinden.
Krise in Pakistan
(2008)
Werden im 21. Jahrhundert die Kriege um Wasser geführt? Von dieser Frage ausgehend diskutiert der Artikel das Konflikt- und Kooperationspotenzial an grenzüberschreitenden Flüssen. Welche Anreize gibt es für Kooperation und was führt zu Konflikten? Den theoretischen Überlegungen werden Erfahrungen an der Elbe sowie am Jordan gegenübergestellt.
Einerseits führt in Entwicklungsländern die Privatisierung von Wasserbetrieben zu Kostensenkungen. Andererseits verändert sie bisherige Möglichkeiten der Teilnahme. Diese wiederspruchsvollen Entwicklungen diskutiert die Autorin an Beispielen aus Südamerika und Südafrika. Künftige Privatisierungen im Bereich Wasser sollten dauerhafte Formen der Mitwirkung ermöglichen.
Wider den „euro-atlantischen Internationalismus“ : Berliner Republik und Entgrenzung der Bundeswehr
(2007)
Inhalt: Frieden mit aller Gewalt schaffen? Tatbestand: Staatsterrorismus Das Weißbuch 2006 Bundesverfassungsgericht versus Bundesverwaltungsgericht Weltweites Interventionsrecht Lizenz zum Völkerrechtsbruch „Re-Transformation“ der Bundeswehr Prinzipien für einen sicherheitspolitischen Grundkonsens Breite öffentliche Debatte notwendig
Die G8 und Chinas Interessen
(2007)
Die G8 besitzt aus chinesischer Sicht große Entwicklungsmöglichkeiten. Verglichen mit anderen zwischenstaatlichen Organisationen hat die G8 einzigartige Vorteile angesichts ihrer Macht und Flexibilität. Um ihren Einfluss und ihre Kontrolle über die Weltangelegenheiten zu verstärken, sollte die Gruppe reformiert und erweitert werden. China ist gegenwärtig nicht an einem Beitritt zur G8 interessiert, wohl aber an einer engen Zusammenarbeit. Langfristig ist es allerdings nur eine Frage der Zeit, bis China der G8 beitreten wird.
Indien und die G8
(2007)
Seit 2005 ist Indien als eines der fünf Outreach-Länder in die Diskussionen der G8 eingebunden. Dies geschah wegen seiner Rolle als eine der Kraftquellen der Weltwirtschaft sowie als viertgrößter globaler Markt. Indien betrachtet ein offenes Welthandelregime und einen größeren Kapitalfluss in die Entwicklungsländer als notwendig, um diesen zu helfen, deren Exporte zu steigern, neue Jobs zu schaffen und den Wohlstand ihrer Produzenten zu erhöhen.
Militärmacht Deutschland?
(2007)
Bezogen auf das Bruttoinlandsprodukt ist China eine wichtige regionale Wirtschaftsmacht, aber keine Supermacht. Doch das Wachstumspotential zehrt sich auf, auch weil die Investitionsdynamik der Unternehmen und der Bankensektor härteren Kreditrestriktionen unterworfen werden. Chinas bislang geschütztes Finanzsystem, das von der Globalisierung untergraben wird, ist die Achillesferse für das hohe Wachstum.
Aus Warschauer Perspektive
(2006)
Neue Akzente statt Neubeginn
(2006)
Im Gespräch werden folgende Themen behandelt: WT: Welche politische Bilanz der Präsidentschaft Putins würden Sie ziehen? WT: Wie haben sich die soziale und wirtschafliche Lage sowie das geistige Klima in Russland während dieser Zeit verändert? WT: Wie beurteilen Sie die Persönlichkeit und das politische Konzept des neuen Präsidenten Dimitri Medwedjew? WT: Wie schätzen Sie die sich ankündigende „Tandem“-Variante der Machtausübung im künftigen Russland ein? Wird es einen starken Ministerpräsidenten Putin und einen zu diesem loyalen, sich gewissermaßen selbstbeschränkenden Präsidenten Medwedjew geben? Oder widerspricht das dem Charakter des Institutionensystems in Russland?