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The intensity of cosmic radiation may differ over five orders of magnitude within a few hours or days during the Solar Particle Events (SPEs), thus increasing for several orders of magnitude the probability of Single Event Upsets (SEUs) in space-borne electronic systems. Therefore, it is vital to enable the early detection of the SEU rate changes in order to ensure timely activation of dynamic radiation hardening measures. In this paper, an embedded approach for the prediction of SPEs and SRAM SEU rate is presented. The proposed solution combines the real-time SRAM-based SEU monitor, the offline-trained machine learning model and online learning algorithm for the prediction. With respect to the state-of-the-art, our solution brings the following benefits: (1) Use of existing on-chip data storage SRAM as a particle detector, thus minimizing the hardware and power overhead, (2) Prediction of SRAM SEU rate one hour in advance, with the fine-grained hourly tracking of SEU variations during SPEs as well as under normal conditions, (3) Online optimization of the prediction model for enhancing the prediction accuracy during run-time, (4) Negligible cost of hardware accelerator design for the implementation of selected machine learning model and online learning algorithm. The proposed design is intended for a highly dependable and self-adaptive multiprocessing system employed in space applications, allowing to trigger the radiation mitigation mechanisms before the onset of high radiation levels.
In control theory, to solve a finite-horizon sequential decision problem (SDP) commonly means to find a list of decision rules that result in an optimal expected total reward (or cost) when taking a given number of decision steps. SDPs are routinely solved using Bellman's backward induction. Textbook authors (e.g. Bertsekas or Puterman) typically give more or less formal proofs to show that the backward induction algorithm is correct as solution method for deterministic and stochastic SDPs. Botta, Jansson and Ionescu propose a generic framework for finite horizon, monadic SDPs together with a monadic version of backward induction for solving such SDPs. In monadic SDPs, the monad captures a generic notion of uncertainty, while a generic measure function aggregates rewards. In the present paper, we define a notion of correctness for monadic SDPs and identify three conditions that allow us to prove a correctness result for monadic backward induction that is comparable to textbook correctness proofs for ordinary backward induction. The conditions that we impose are fairly general and can be cast in category-theoretical terms using the notion of Eilenberg-Moore algebra. They hold in familiar settings like those of deterministic or stochastic SDPs, but we also give examples in which they fail. Our results show that backward induction can safely be employed for a broader class of SDPs than usually treated in textbooks. However, they also rule out certain instances that were considered admissible in the context of Botta et al. 's generic framework. Our development is formalised in Idris as an extension of the Botta et al. framework and the sources are available as supplementary material.
In this paper, we present a study comparing the depth to diameter (d/D) ratio of small simple craters (200-1000 m) of an area between -88.5 degrees to -90 degrees latitude at the lunar south pole containing Permanent Shadowed Regions (PSRs) versus craters without PSRs. As PSRs can reach temperatures of 110 K and are capable of harboring volatiles, especially water ice, we analyzed the relationship of depth versus diameter ratios and its possible implications for harboring water ice. Variations in the d/D ratios can also be caused by other processes such as degradation, isostatic adjustment, or differences in surface properties. The conducted d/D ratio analysis suggests that a differentiation between craters containing PSRs versus craters without PSRs occurs. Thus, a possible direct relation between d/D ratio, PSRs, and water ice harboring might exist. Our results suggest that differences in the target's surface properties may explain the obtained results. The resulting d/D ratios of craters with PSRs can help to select target areas for future In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) missions.
Machine learning for improvement of thermal conditions inside a hybrid ventilated animal building
(2021)
In buildings with hybrid ventilation, natural ventilation opening positions (windows), mechanical ventilation rates, heating, and cooling are manipulated to maintain desired thermal conditions. The indoor temperature is regulated solely by ventilation (natural and mechanical) when the external conditions are favorable to save external heating and cooling energy. The ventilation parameters are determined by a rule-based control scheme, which is not optimal. This study proposes a methodology to enable real-time optimum control of ventilation parameters. We developed offline prediction models to estimate future thermal conditions from the data collected from building in operation. The developed offline model is then used to find the optimal controllable ventilation parameters in real-time to minimize the setpoint deviation in the building. With the proposed methodology, the experimental building's setpoint deviation improved for 87% of time, on average, by 0.53 degrees C compared to the current deviations.
Deep metric learning employs deep neural networks to embed instances into a metric space such that distances between instances of the same class are small and distances between instances from different classes are large. In most existing deep metric learning techniques, the embedding of an instance is given by a feature vector produced by a deep neural network and Euclidean distance or cosine similarity defines distances between these vectors. This paper studies deep distributional embeddings of sequences, where the embedding of a sequence is given by the distribution of learned deep features across the sequence. The motivation for this is to better capture statistical information about the distribution of patterns within the sequence in the embedding. When embeddings are distributions rather than vectors, measuring distances between embeddings involves comparing their respective distributions. The paper therefore proposes a distance metric based on Wasserstein distances between the distributions and a corresponding loss function for metric learning, which leads to a novel end-to-end trainable embedding model. We empirically observe that distributional embeddings outperform standard vector embeddings and that training with the proposed Wasserstein metric outperforms training with other distance functions.
Background:
Pruritus often accompanies chronic skin diseases, exerting considerable burden on many areas of patient functioning; this burden and the features of pruritus remain insufficiently characterized.
Objective:
To investigate characteristics, including localization patterns, and burden of pruritus in patients with chronic dermatoses.
Methods:
We recruited 800 patients with active chronic skin diseases. We assessed pruritus intensity, localization, and further characteristics. We used validated questionnaires to assess quality of life, work productivity and activity impairment, anxiety, depression, and sleep quality.
Results:
Nine out of every 10 patients had experienced pruritus throughout their disease and 73% in the last 7 days. Pruritus often affected the entire body and was not restricted to skin lesions. Patients with moderate to severe pruritus reported significantly more impairment to their sleep quality and work productivity, and they were more depressed and anxious than control individuals and patients with mild or no pruritus. Suicidal ideations were highly prevalent in patients with chronic pruritus (18.5%) and atopic dermatitis (11.8%).
Conclusions:
Pruritus prevalence and intensity are very high across all dermatoses studied; intensity is linked to impairment in many areas of daily functioning. Effective treatment strategies are urgently required to treat pruritus and the underlying skin disease. ( J Am Acad Dermatol 2021;84:691-700.)
Answer set planning
(2022)
Answer Set Planning refers to the use of Answer Set Programming (ASP) to compute plans, that is, solutions to planning problems, that transform a given state of the world to another state. The development of efficient and scalable answer set solvers has provided a significant boost to the development of ASP-based planning systems. This paper surveys the progress made during the last two and a half decades in the area of answer set planning, from its foundations to its use in challenging planning domains. The survey explores the advantages and disadvantages of answer set planning. It also discusses typical applications of answer set planning and presents a set of challenges for future research.
Large-scale literature mining to assess the relation between anti-cancer drugs and cancer types
(2021)
Background:
There is a huge body of scientific literature describing the relation between tumor types and anti-cancer drugs. The vast amount of scientific literature makes it impossible for researchers and physicians to extract all relevant information manually.
Methods:
In order to cope with the large amount of literature we applied an automated text mining approach to assess the relations between 30 most frequent cancer types and 270 anti-cancer drugs. We applied two different approaches, a classical text mining based on named entity recognition and an AI-based approach employing word embeddings. The consistency of literature mining results was validated with 3 independent methods: first, using data from FDA approvals, second, using experimentally measured IC-50 cell line data and third, using clinical patient survival data.
Results:
We demonstrated that the automated text mining was able to successfully assess the relation between cancer types and anti-cancer drugs. All validation methods showed a good correspondence between the results from literature mining and independent confirmatory approaches. The relation between most frequent cancer types and drugs employed for their treatment were visualized in a large heatmap. All results are accessible in an interactive web-based knowledge base using the following link: .
Conclusions:
Our approach is able to assess the relations between compounds and cancer types in an automated manner. Both, cancer types and compounds could be grouped into different clusters. Researchers can use the interactive knowledge base to inspect the presented results and follow their own research questions, for example the identification of novel indication areas for known drugs.
Tropical cyclones range among the costliest disasters on Earth. Their economic repercussions along the supply and trade network also affect remote economies that are not directly affected. We here simulate possible global repercussions on consumption for the example case of Hurricane Sandy in the US (2012) using the shock-propagation model Acclimate. The modeled shock yields a global three-phase ripple: an initial production demand reduction and associated consumption price decrease, followed by a supply shortage with increasing prices, and finally a recovery phase. Regions with strong trade relations to the US experience strong magnitudes of the ripple. A dominating demand reduction or supply shortage leads to overall consumption gains or losses of a region, respectively. While finding these repercussions in historic data is challenging due to strong volatility of economic interactions, numerical models like ours can help to identify them by approaching the problem from an exploratory angle, isolating the effect of interest. For this, our model simulates the economic interactions of over 7000 regional economic sectors, interlinked through about 1.8 million trade relations. Under global warming, the wave-like structures of the economic response to major hurricanes like the one simulated here are likely to intensify and potentially overlap with other weather extremes.
Due to climate change the frequency and character of precipitation are changing as the hydrological cycle intensifies. With regards to snowfall, global warming has two opposing influences; increasing humidity enables intense snowfall, whereas higher temperatures decrease the likelihood of snowfall. Here we show an intensification of extreme snowfall across large areas of the Northern Hemisphere under future warming. This is robust across an ensemble of global climate models when they are bias-corrected with observational data. While mean daily snowfall decreases, both the 99th and the 99.9th percentiles of daily snowfall increase in many regions in the next decades, especially for Northern America and Asia. Additionally, the average intensity of snowfall events exceeding these percentiles as experienced historically increases in many regions. This is likely to pose a challenge to municipalities in mid to high latitudes. Overall, extreme snowfall events are likely to become an increasingly important impact of climate change in the next decades, even if they will become rarer, but not necessarily less intense, in the second half of the century.
Optimized deep learning model as a basis for fast UAV mapping of weed species in winter wheat crops
(2021)
Weed maps should be available quickly, reliably, and with high detail to be useful for site-specific management in crop protection and to promote more sustainable agriculture by reducing pesticide use. Here, the optimization of a deep residual convolutional neural network (ResNet-18) for the classification of weed and crop plants in UAV imagery is proposed. The target was to reach sufficient performance on an embedded system by maintaining the same features of the ResNet-18 model as a basis for fast UAV mapping. This would enable online recognition and subsequent mapping of weeds during UAV flying operation. Optimization was achieved mainly by avoiding redundant computations that arise when a classification model is applied on overlapping tiles in a larger input image. The model was trained and tested with imagery obtained from a UAV flight campaign at low altitude over a winter wheat field, and classification was performed on species level with the weed species Matricaria chamomilla L., Papaver rhoeas L., Veronica hederifolia L., and Viola arvensis ssp. arvensis observed in that field. The ResNet-18 model with the optimized image-level prediction pipeline reached a performance of 2.2 frames per second with an NVIDIA Jetson AGX Xavier on the full resolution UAV image, which would amount to about 1.78 ha h(-1) area output for continuous field mapping. The overall accuracy for determining crop, soil, and weed species was 94%. There were some limitations in the detection of species unknown to the model. When shifting from 16-bit to 32-bit model precision, no improvement in classification accuracy was observed, but a strong decline in speed performance, especially when a higher number of filters was used in the ResNet-18 model. Future work should be directed towards the integration of the mapping process on UAV platforms, guiding UAVs autonomously for mapping purpose, and ensuring the transferability of the models to other crop fields.
Student teachers often struggle to keep track of everything that is happening in the classroom, and particularly to notice and respond when students cause disruptions. The complexity of the classroom environment is a potential contributing factor that has not been empirically tested. In this experimental study, we utilized a virtual reality (VR) classroom to examine whether classroom complexity affects the likelihood of student teachers noticing disruptions and how they react after noticing. Classroom complexity was operationalized as the number of disruptions and the existence of overlapping disruptions (multidimensionality) as well as the existence of parallel teaching tasks (simultaneity). Results showed that student teachers (n = 50) were less likely to notice the scripted disruptions, and also less likely to respond to the disruptions in a comprehensive and effortful manner when facing greater complexity. These results may have implications for both teacher training and the design of VR for training or research purpose. This study contributes to the field from two aspects: 1) it revealed how features of the classroom environment can affect student teachers' noticing of and reaction to disruptions; and 2) it extends the functionality of the VR environment-from a teacher training tool to a testbed of fundamental classroom processes that are difficult to manipulate in real-life.
The use of neural networks is considered as the state of the art in the field of image classification. A large number of different networks are available for this purpose, which, appropriately trained, permit a high level of classification accuracy. Typically, these networks are applied to uncompressed image data, since a corresponding training was also carried out using image data of similar high quality. However, if image data contains image errors, the classification accuracy deteriorates drastically. This applies in particular to coding artifacts which occur due to image and video compression. Typical application scenarios for video compression are narrowband transmission channels for which video coding is required but a subsequent classification is to be carried out on the receiver side. In this paper we present a special H.264/Advanced Video Codec (AVC) based video codec that allows certain regions of a picture to be coded with near constant picture quality in order to allow a reliable classification using neural networks, whereas the remaining image will be coded using constant bit rate. We have combined this feature with the ability to run with lowest latency properties, which is usually also required in remote control applications scenarios. The codec has been implemented as a fully hardwired High Definition video capable hardware architecture which is suitable for Field Programmable Gate Arrays.
Computational drug sensitivity models have the potential to improve therapeutic outcomes by identifying targeted drug components that are likely to achieve the highest efficacy for a cancer cell line at hand at a therapeutic dose. State of the art drug sensitivity models use regression techniques to predict the inhibitory concentration of a drug for a tumor cell line. This regression objective is not directly aligned with either of these principal goals of drug sensitivity models: We argue that drug sensitivity modeling should be seen as a ranking problem with an optimization criterion that quantifies a drug's inhibitory capacity for the cancer cell line at hand relative to its toxicity for healthy cells. We derive an extension to the well-established drug sensitivity regression model PaccMann that employs a ranking loss and focuses on the ratio of inhibitory concentration and therapeutic dosage range. We find that the ranking extension significantly enhances the model's capability to identify the most effective anticancer drugs for unseen tumor cell profiles based in on in-vitro data.
We present a method employing Answer Set Programming in combination with Approximate Model Counting for fast and accurate calculation of error propagation probabilities in digital circuits. By an efficient problem encoding, we achieve an input data format similar to a Verilog netlist so that extensive preprocessing is avoided. By a tight interconnection of our application with the underlying solver, we avoid iterating over fault sites and reduce calls to the solver. Several circuits were analyzed with varying numbers of considered cycles and different degrees of approximation. Our experiments show, that the runtime can be reduced by approximation by a factor of 91, whereas the error compared to the exact result is below 1%.
Due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, Earth’s average surface temperature is steadily increasing. As a consequence, many weather extremes are likely to become more frequent and intense. This poses a threat to natural and human systems, with local impacts capable of destroying exposed assets and infrastructure, and disrupting economic and societal activity. Yet, these effects are not locally confined to the directly affected regions, as they can trigger indirect economic repercussions through loss propagation along supply chains. As a result, local extremes yield a potentially global economic response. To build economic resilience and design effective adaptation measures that mitigate adverse socio-economic impacts of ongoing climate change, it is crucial to gain a comprehensive understanding of indirect impacts and the underlying economic mechanisms.
Presenting six articles in this thesis, I contribute towards this understanding. To this end, I expand on local impacts under current and future climate, the resulting global economic response, as well as the methods and tools to analyze this response.
Starting with a traditional assessment of weather extremes under climate change, the first article investigates extreme snowfall in the Northern Hemisphere until the end of the century. Analyzing an ensemble of global climate model projections reveals an increase of the most extreme snowfall, while mean snowfall decreases.
Assessing repercussions beyond local impacts, I employ numerical simulations to compute indirect economic effects from weather extremes with the numerical agent-based shock propagation model Acclimate. This model is used in conjunction with the recently emerged storyline framework, which involves analyzing the impacts of a particular reference extreme event and comparing them to impacts in plausible counterfactual scenarios under various climate or socio-economic conditions. Using this approach, I introduce three primary storylines that shed light on the complex mechanisms underlying economic loss propagation.
In the second and third articles of this thesis, I analyze storylines for the historical Hurricanes Sandy (2012) and Harvey (2017) in the USA. For this, I first estimate local economic output losses and then simulate the resulting global economic response with Acclimate. The storyline for Hurricane Sandy thereby focuses on global consumption price anomalies and the resulting changes in consumption. I find that the local economic disruption leads to a global wave-like economic price ripple, with upstream effects propagating in the supplier direction and downstream effects in the buyer direction. Initially, an upstream demand reduction causes consumption price decreases, followed by a downstream supply shortage and increasing prices, before the anomalies decay in a normalization phase. A dominant upstream or downstream effect leads to net consumption gains or losses of a region, respectively. Moreover, I demonstrate that a longer direct economic shock intensifies the downstream effect for many regions, leading to an overall consumption loss.
The third article of my thesis builds upon the developed loss estimation method by incorporating projections to future global warming levels. I use these projections to explore how the global production response to Hurricane Harvey would change under further increased global warming. The results show that, while the USA is able to nationally offset direct losses in the reference configuration, other countries have to compensate for increasing shares of counterfactual future losses. This compensation is mainly achieved by large exporting countries, but gradually shifts towards smaller regions. These findings not only highlight the economy’s ability to flexibly mitigate disaster losses to a certain extent, but also reveal the vulnerability and economic disadvantage of regions that are exposed to extreme weather events.
The storyline in the fourth article of my thesis investigates the interaction between global economic stress and the propagation of losses from weather extremes. I examine indirect impacts of weather extremes — tropical cyclones, heat stress, and river floods — worldwide under two different economic conditions: an unstressed economy and a globally stressed economy, as seen during the Covid-19 pandemic. I demonstrate that the adverse effects of weather extremes on global consumption are strongly amplified when the economy is under stress. Specifically, consumption losses in the USA and China double and triple, respectively, due to the global economy’s decreased capacity for disaster loss compensation. An aggravated scarcity intensifies the price response, causing consumption losses to increase.
Advancing on the methods and tools used here, the final two articles in my thesis extend the agent-based model Acclimate and formalize the storyline approach. With the model extension described in the fifth article, regional consumers make rational choices on the goods bought such that their utility is maximized under a constrained budget. In an out-of-equilibrium economy, these rational consumers are shown to temporarily increase consumption of certain goods in spite of rising prices.
The sixth article of my thesis proposes a formalization of the storyline framework, drawing on multiple studies including storylines presented in this thesis. The proposed guideline defines eight central elements that can be used to construct a storyline.
Overall, this thesis contributes towards a better understanding of economic repercussions of weather extremes. It achieves this by providing assessments of local direct impacts, highlighting mechanisms and impacts of loss propagation, and advancing on methods and tools used.
Answer Set Programming (ASP) is a prominent knowledge representation language with roots in logic programming and non-monotonic reasoning. Biennial ASP competitions are organized in order to furnish challenging benchmark collections and assess the advancement of the state of the art in ASP solving. In this paper, we report on the design and results of the Seventh ASP Competition, jointly organized by the University of Calabria (Italy), the University of Genova (Italy), and the University of Potsdam (Germany), in affiliation with the 14th International Conference on Logic Programming and Non-Monotonic Reasoning (LPNMR 2017).
In this bachelor’s thesis I implement the automatic theorem prover nanoCoP-Ω. This system is the result of porting arithmetic and equality handling procedures first introduced in the automatic theorem prover with arithmetic leanCoP-Ω into the similar system nanoCoP 2.0. To understand these procedures, I first introduce the mathematical background to both automatic theorem proving and arithmetic expressions. I present the predecessor projects leanCoP, nanoCoP and leanCoP-Ω, out of which nanCoP-Ω was developed. This is followed by an extensive description of the concepts the non-clausal connection calculus needed to be extended by, to allow for proving arithmetic expressions and equalities, as well as of their implementation into nanoCoP-Ω. An extensive comparison between both the runtimes and the number of solved problems of the systems nanoCoP-Ω and leanCoP-Ω was made. I come to the conclusion, that nanoCoP-Ω is considerably faster than leanCoP-Ω for small problems, though less well suited for larger problems. Additionally, I was able to construct a non-theorem that nanoCoP-Ω generates a false proof for. I discuss how this pressing issue could be resolved, as well as some possible optimizations and expansions of the system.
Arousal is one of the dimensions of core affect and frequently used to describe experienced or observed emotional states. While arousal ratings of facial expressions are collected in many studies it is not well understood how arousal is displayed in or interpreted from facial expressions. In the context of socioemotional disorders such as Autism Spectrum Disorder, this poses the question of a differential use of facial information for arousal perception. In this study, we demonstrate how automated face-tracking tools can be used to extract predictors of arousal judgments. We find moderate to strong correlations among all measures of static information on one hand and all measures of dynamic information on the other. Based on these results, we tested two measures, average distance to the neutral face and average facial movement speed, within and between neurotypical individuals (N = 401) and individuals with autism (N = 19). Distance to the neutral face was predictive of arousal in both groups. Lower mean arousal ratings were found for the autistic group, but no difference in correlation of the measures and arousal ratings could be found between groups. Results were replicated in an high autistic traits group. The findings suggest a qualitatively similar perception of arousal for individuals with and without autism. No correlations between valence ratings and any of the measures could be found, emphasizing the specificity of our tested measures. Distance and speed predictors share variability and thus speed should not be discarded as a predictor of arousal ratings.
This paper is part of the investigation of some operations on words and languages with motivations coming from DNA biochemistry, namely three variants of hairpin completion and three variants of hairpin reduction. Since not all the hairpin completions or reductions of semilinear languages remain semilinear, we study sufficient conditions for semilinear languages to preserve their semilinearity property after applying the non-iterated hairpin completion or hairpin reduction. A similar approach is then applied to the iterated variants of these operations. Along these lines, we define the hairpin reduction root of a language and show that the hairpin reduction root of a semilinear language is not necessarily semilinear except the universal language. A few open problems are finally discussed.