Extern
Refine
Year of publication
Document Type
- Doctoral Thesis (36)
- Article (19)
- Report (13)
- Monograph/Edited Volume (11)
- Part of Periodical (3)
- Part of a Book (2)
- Conference Proceeding (2)
- Contribution to a Periodical (2)
- Master's Thesis (2)
- Working Paper (2)
Keywords
- Brandenburg (8)
- Umweltschutz (7)
- Nachhaltigkeit (4)
- Deutschland (3)
- Dysphagie (3)
- Luftverschmutzung (3)
- Ökologie (3)
- Forschungsdaten (2)
- Hochschule (2)
- Institutionalisierung (2)
Institute
- Extern (94)
- Institut für Biochemie und Biologie (9)
- Institut für Geowissenschaften (9)
- Institut für Physik und Astronomie (9)
- Verband für Patholinguistik e. V. (vpl) (9)
- Institut für Jüdische Theologie (7)
- Institut für Umweltwissenschaften und Geographie (7)
- Department Erziehungswissenschaft (2)
- Institut für Jüdische Studien und Religionswissenschaft (2)
- Lehreinheit für Wirtschafts-Arbeit-Technik (2)
Today, more than half of the world’s population lives in urban areas. With a high density of population and assets, urban areas are not only the economic, cultural and social hubs of every society, they are also highly susceptible to natural disasters. As a consequence of rising sea levels and an expected increase in extreme weather events caused by a changing climate in combination with growing cities, flooding is an increasing threat to many urban agglomerations around the globe.
To mitigate the destructive consequences of flooding, appropriate risk management and adaptation strategies are required. So far, flood risk management in urban areas is almost exclusively focused on managing river and coastal flooding. Often overlooked is the risk from small-scale rainfall-triggered flooding, where the rainfall intensity of rainstorms exceeds the capacity of urban drainage systems, leading to immediate flooding. Referred to as pluvial flooding, this flood type exclusive to urban areas has caused severe losses in cities around the world. Without further intervention, losses from pluvial flooding are expected to increase in many urban areas due to an increase of impervious surfaces compounded with an aging drainage infrastructure and a projected increase in heavy precipitation events. While this requires the integration of pluvial flood risk into risk management plans, so far little is known about the adverse consequences of pluvial flooding due to a lack of both detailed data sets and studies on pluvial flood impacts. As a consequence, methods for reliably estimating pluvial flood losses, needed for pluvial flood risk assessment, are still missing.
Therefore, this thesis investigates how pluvial flood losses to private households can be reliably estimated, based on an improved understanding of the drivers of pluvial flood loss. For this purpose, detailed data from pluvial flood-affected households was collected through structured telephone- and web-surveys following pluvial flood events in Germany and the Netherlands.
Pluvial flood losses to households are the result of complex interactions between impact characteristics such as the water depth and a household’s resistance as determined by its risk awareness, preparedness, emergency response, building properties and other influencing factors. Both exploratory analysis and machine-learning approaches were used to analyze differences in resistance and impacts between households and their effects on the resulting losses. The comparison of case studies showed that the awareness around pluvial flooding among private households is quite low. Low awareness not only challenges the effective dissemination of early warnings, but was also found to influence the implementation of private precautionary measures. The latter were predominately implemented by households with previous experience of pluvial flooding. Even cases where previous flood events affected a different part of the same city did not lead to an increase in preparedness of the surveyed households, highlighting the need to account for small-scale variability in both impact and resistance parameters when assessing pluvial flood risk.
While it was concluded that the combination of low awareness, ineffective early warning and the fact that only a minority of buildings were adapted to pluvial flooding impaired the coping capacities of private households, the often low water levels still enabled households to mitigate or even prevent losses through a timely and effective emergency response.
These findings were confirmed by the detection of loss-influencing variables, showing that cases in which households were able to prevent any loss to the building structure are predominately explained by resistance variables such as the household’s risk awareness, while the degree of loss is mainly explained by impact variables.
Based on the important loss-influencing variables detected, different flood loss models were developed. Similar to flood loss models for river floods, the empirical data from the preceding data collection was used to train flood loss models describing the relationship between impact and resistance parameters and the resulting loss to building structures. Different approaches were adapted from river flood loss models using both models with the water depth as only predictor for building structure loss and models incorporating additional variables from the preceding variable detection routine.
The high predictive errors of all compared models showed that point predictions are not suitable for estimating losses on the building level, as they severely impair the reliability of the estimates. For that reason, a new probabilistic framework based on Bayesian inference was introduced that is able to provide predictive distributions instead of single loss estimates. These distributions not only give a range of probable losses, they also provide information on how likely a specific loss value is, representing the uncertainty in the loss estimate.
Using probabilistic loss models, it was found that the certainty and reliability of a loss estimate on the building level is not only determined by the use of additional predictors as shown in previous studies, but also by the choice of response distribution defining the shape of the predictive distribution. Here, a mix between a beta and a Bernoulli distribution to account for households that are able to prevent losses to their building’s structure was found to provide significantly more certain and reliable estimates than previous approaches using Gaussian or non-parametric response distributions.
The successful model transfer and post-event application to estimate building structure loss in Houston, TX, caused by pluvial flooding during Hurricane Harvey confirmed previous findings, and demonstrated the potential of the newly developed multi-variable beta model for future risk assessments. The highly detailed input data set constructed from openly available data sources containing over 304,000 affected buildings in Harris County further showed the potential of data-driven, building-level loss models for pluvial flood risk assessment.
In conclusion, pluvial flood losses to private households are the result of complex interactions between impact and resistance variables, which should be represented in loss models. The local occurrence of pluvial floods requires loss estimates on high spatial resolutions, i.e. on the building level, where losses are variable and uncertainties are high.
Therefore, probabilistic loss estimates describing the uncertainty of the estimate should be used instead of point predictions. While the performance of probabilistic models on the building level are mainly driven by the choice of response distribution, multi-variable models are recommended for two reasons:
First, additional resistance variables improve the detection of cases in which households were able to prevent structural losses.
Second, the added variability of additional predictors provides a better representation of the uncertainties when loss estimates from multiple buildings are aggregated.
This leads to the conclusion that data-driven probabilistic loss models on the building level allow for a reliable loss estimation at an unprecedented level of detail, with a consistent quantification of uncertainties on all aggregation levels. This makes the presented approach suitable for a wide range of applications, from decision support in spatial planning to impact- based early warning systems.
Organic-inorganic hybrids based on P3HT and mesoporous silicon for thermoelectric applications
(2024)
This thesis presents a comprehensive study on synthesis, structure and thermoelectric transport properties of organic-inorganic hybrids based on P3HT and porous silicon. The effect of embedding polymer in silicon pores on the electrical and thermal transport is studied. Morphological studies confirm successful polymer infiltration and diffusion doping with roughly 50% of the pore space occupied by conjugated polymer. Synchrotron diffraction experiments reveal no specific ordering of the polymer inside the pores. P3HT-pSi hybrids show improved electrical transport by five orders of magnitude compared to porous silicon and power factor values comparable or exceeding other P3HT-inorganic hybrids. The analysis suggests different transport mechanisms in both materials. In pSi, the transport mechanism relates to a Meyer-Neldel compansation rule. The analysis of hybrids' data using the power law in Kang-Snyder model suggests that a doped polymer mainly provides charge carriers to the pSi matrix, similar to the behavior of a doped semiconductor. Heavily suppressed thermal transport in porous silicon is treated with a modified Landauer/Lundstrom model and effective medium theories, which reveal that pSi agrees well with the Kirkpatrick model with a 68% percolation threshold. Thermal conductivities of hybrids show an increase compared to the empty pSi but the overall thermoelectric figure of merit ZT of P3HT-pSi hybrid exceeds both pSi and P3HT as well as bulk Si.
Moss-microbe associations are often characterised by syntrophic interactions between the microorganisms and their hosts, but the structure of the microbial consortia and their role in peatland development remain unknown.
In order to study microbial communities of dominant peatland mosses, Sphagnum and brown mosses, and the respective environmental drivers, four study sites representing different successional stages of natural northern peatlands were chosen on a large geographical scale: two brown moss-dominated, circumneutral peatlands from the Arctic and two Sphagnum-dominated, acidic peat bogs from subarctic and temperate zones.
The family Acetobacteraceae represented the dominant bacterial taxon of Sphagnum mosses from various geographical origins and displayed an integral part of the moss core community. This core community was shared among all investigated bryophytes and consisted of few but highly abundant prokaryotes, of which many appear as endophytes of Sphagnum mosses. Moreover, brown mosses and Sphagnum mosses represent habitats for archaea which were not studied in association with peatland mosses so far. Euryarchaeota that are capable of methane production (methanogens) displayed the majority of the moss-associated archaeal communities. Moss-associated methanogenesis was detected for the first time, but it was mostly negligible under laboratory conditions. Contrarily, substantial moss-associated methane oxidation was measured on both, brown mosses and Sphagnum mosses, supporting that methanotrophic bacteria as part of the moss microbiome may contribute to the reduction of methane emissions from pristine and rewetted peatlands of the northern hemisphere.
Among the investigated abiotic and biotic environmental parameters, the peatland type and the host moss taxon were identified to have a major impact on the structure of moss-associated bacterial communities, contrarily to archaeal communities whose structures were similar among the investigated bryophytes. For the first time it was shown that different bog development stages harbour distinct bacterial communities, while at the same time a small core community is shared among all investigated bryophytes independent of geography and peatland type.
The present thesis displays the first large-scale, systematic assessment of bacterial and archaeal communities associated both with brown mosses and Sphagnum mosses. It suggests that some host-specific moss taxa have the potential to play a key role in host moss establishment and peatland development.
Mit den ›Nachträgen‹ liegt nun der letzte Schriftenband der Jubiläumsausgabe vor. Er ergänzt die ›Jubiläumsausgabe‹ um Texte und Briefe, die entweder erst nach Erscheinen des jeweiligen Bandes entdeckt wurden oder bei Fortsetzung der Ausgabe nach dem Krieg als verschollen galten. Bei den philosophischen Fragmenten handelt es sich u.a. um bisher unbekannte Entwürfe für die ›Morgenstunden‹ und ›An die Freunde Lessings‹. Zu den Judaica zählen Mendelssohns Übertragungen hebräischer Gedichte des 18. Jahrhunderts, seine Übersetzung der Grundartikel des Judentums und seine Anmerkungen zu Michaelis’ Rezension von Dohms ›Ueber die bürgerliche Verbesserung der Juden‹. Zu Mendelssohns Briefpartnern zählen u.a. Abbt, Iselin, Lessing, Friedrich II., Engel, Lavater, Michaelis, Penzel, Nicolai, Dohm, Kuh, Lowth, Carmer und Ramler.
The Greenland Ice Sheet is the second-largest mass of ice on Earth. Being almost 2000 km long, more than 700 km wide, and more than 3 km thick at the summit, it holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by 7m if melted completely. Despite its massive size, it is particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change: temperatures over the Greenland Ice Sheet have increased by more than 2.7◦C in the past 30 years, twice as much as the global mean temperature. Consequently, the ice sheet has been significantly losing mass since the 1980s and the rate of loss has increased sixfold since then. Moreover, it is one of the potential tipping elements of the Earth System, which might undergo irreversible change once a warming threshold is exceeded. This thesis aims at extending the understanding of the resilience of the Greenland Ice Sheet against global warming by analyzing processes and feedbacks relevant to its centennial to multi-millennial stability using ice sheet modeling.
One of these feedbacks, the melt-elevation-feedback is driven by the temperature rise with decreasing altitudes: As the ice sheet melts, its thickness and surface elevation decrease, exposing the ice surface to warmer air and thus increasing the melt rates even further. The glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) can partly mitigate this melt-elevation feedback as the bedrock lifts in response to an ice load decrease, forming the negative GIA feedback. In my thesis, I show that the interaction between these two competing feedbacks can lead to qualitatively different dynamical responses of the Greenland Ice Sheet to warming – from permanent loss to incomplete recovery, depending on the feedback parameters. My research shows that the interaction of those feedbacks can initiate self-sustained oscillations of the ice volume while the climate forcing remains constant.
Furthermore, the increased surface melt changes the optical properties of the snow or ice surface, e.g. by lowering their albedo, which in turn enhances melt rates – a process known as the melt-albedo feedback. Process-based ice sheet models often neglect this melt-albedo feedback. To close this gap, I implemented a simplified version of the diurnal Energy Balance Model, a computationally efficient approach that can capture the first-order effects of the melt-albedo feedback, into the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). Using the coupled model, I show in warming experiments that the melt-albedo feedback almost doubles the ice loss until the year 2300 under the low greenhouse gas emission scenario RCP2.6, compared to simulations where the melt-albedo feedback is neglected,
and adds up to 58% additional ice loss under the high emission scenario RCP8.5. Moreover, I find that the melt-albedo feedback dominates the ice loss until 2300, compared to the melt-elevation feedback.
Another process that could influence the resilience of the Greenland Ice Sheet is the warming induced softening of the ice and the resulting increase in flow. In my thesis, I show with PISM how the uncertainty in Glen’s flow law impacts the simulated response to warming. In a flow line setup at fixed climatic mass balance, the uncertainty in flow parameters leads to a range of ice loss comparable to the range caused by different warming levels.
While I focus on fundamental processes, feedbacks, and their interactions in the first three projects of my thesis, I also explore the impact of specific climate scenarios on the sea level rise contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet. To increase the carbon budget flexibility, some warming scenarios – while still staying within the limits of the Paris Agreement – include a temporal overshoot of global warming. I show that an overshoot by 0.4◦C increases the short-term and long-term ice loss from Greenland by several centimeters. The long-term increase is driven by the warming at high latitudes, which persists even when global warming is reversed. This leads to a substantial long-term commitment of the sea level rise contribution from the Greenland Ice Sheet.
Overall, in my thesis I show that the melt-albedo feedback is most relevant for the ice loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet on centennial timescales. In contrast, the melt-elevation feedback and its interplay with the GIA feedback become increasingly relevant on millennial timescales. All of these influence the resilience of the Greenland Ice Sheet against global warming, in the near future and on the long term.
Extreme flooding displaces an average of 12 million people every year. Marginalized populations in low-income countries are in particular at high risk, but also industrialized countries are susceptible to displacement and its inherent societal impacts. The risk of being displaced results from a complex interaction of flood hazard, population exposed in the floodplains, and socio-economic vulnerability. Ongoing global warming changes the intensity, frequency, and duration of flood hazards, undermining existing protection measures. Meanwhile, settlements in attractive yet hazardous flood-prone areas have led to a higher degree of population exposure. Finally, the vulnerability to displacement is altered by demographic and social change, shifting economic power, urbanization, and technological development. These risk components have been investigated intensively in the context of loss of life and economic damage, however, only little is known about the risk of displacement under global change.
This thesis aims to improve our understanding of flood-induced displacement risk under global climate change and socio-economic change. This objective is tackled by addressing the following three research questions. First, by focusing on the choice of input data, how well can a global flood modeling chain reproduce flood hazards of historic events that lead to displacement? Second, what are the socio-economic characteristics that shape the vulnerability to displacement? Finally, to what degree has climate change potentially contributed to recent flood-induced displacement events?
To answer the first question, a global flood modeling chain is evaluated by comparing simulated flood extent with satellite-derived inundation information for eight major flood events. A focus is set on the sensitivity to different combinations of the underlying climate reanalysis datasets and global hydrological models which serve as an input for the global hydraulic model. An evaluation scheme of performance scores shows that simulated flood extent is mostly overestimated without the consideration of flood protection and only for a few events dependent on the choice of global hydrological models. Results are more sensitive to the underlying climate forcing, with two datasets differing substantially from a third one. In contrast, the incorporation of flood protection standards results in an underestimation of flood extent, pointing to potential deficiencies in the protection level estimates or the flood frequency distribution within the modeling chain.
Following the analysis of a physical flood hazard model, the socio-economic drivers of vulnerability to displacement are investigated in the next step. For this purpose, a satellite- based, global collection of flood footprints is linked with two disaster inventories to match societal impacts with the corresponding flood hazard. For each event the number of affected population, assets, and critical infrastructure, as well as socio-economic indicators are computed. The resulting datasets are made publicly available and contain 335 displacement events and 695 mortality/damage events. Based on this new data product, event-specific displacement vulnerabilities are determined and multiple (national) dependencies with the socio-economic predictors are derived. The results suggest that economic prosperity only partially shapes vulnerability to displacement; urbanization, infant mortality rate, the share of elderly, population density and critical infrastructure exhibit a stronger functional relationship, suggesting that higher levels of development are generally associated with lower vulnerability.
Besides examining the contextual drivers of vulnerability, the role of climate change in the context of human displacement is also being explored. An impact attribution approach is applied on the example of Cyclone Idai and associated extreme coastal flooding in Mozambique. A combination of coastal flood modeling and satellite imagery is used to construct factual and counterfactual flood events. This storyline-type attribution method allows investigating the isolated or combined effects of sea level rise and the intensification of cyclone wind speeds on coastal flooding. The results suggest that displacement risk has increased by 3.1 to 3.5% due to the total effects of climate change on coastal flooding, with the effects of increasing wind speed being the dominant factor.
In conclusion, this thesis highlights the potentials and challenges of modeling flood- induced displacement risk. While this work explores the sensitivity of global flood modeling to the choice of input data, new questions arise on how to effectively improve the reproduction of flood return periods and the representation of protection levels. It is also demonstrated that disentangling displacement vulnerabilities is feasible, with the results providing useful information for risk assessments, effective humanitarian aid, and disaster relief. The impact attribution study is a first step in assessing the effects of global warming on displacement risk, leading to new research challenges, e.g., coupling fluvial and coastal flood models or the attribution of other hazard types and displacement events. This thesis is one of the first to address flood-induced displacement risk from a global perspective. The findings motivate for further development of the global flood modeling chain to improve our understanding of displacement vulnerability and the effects of global warming.