In order to achieve their business goals, organizations heavily rely on the operational excellence of their business processes. In traditional scenarios, business processes are usually well-structured, clearly specifying when and how certain tasks have to be executed. Flexible and knowledge-intensive processes are gathering momentum, where a knowledge worker drives the execution of a process case and determines the exact process path at runtime. In the case of an exception, the knowledge worker decides on an appropriate handling. While there is initial work on exception handling in well-structured business processes, exceptions in case management have not been sufficiently researched. This paper proposes an exception handling framework for stage-oriented case management languages, namely Guard Stage Milestone Model, Case Management Model and Notation, and Fragment-based Case Management. The effectiveness of the framework is evaluated with two real-world use cases showing that it covers all relevant exceptions and proposed handling strategies.

Data analytics are moving beyond the limits of a single platform. In this paper, we present the cost-based optimizer of Rheem, an open-source cross-platform system that copes with these new requirements. The optimizer allocates the subtasks of data analytic tasks to the most suitable platforms. Our main contributions are: (i) a mechanism based on graph transformations to explore alternative execution strategies; (ii) a novel graph-based approach to determine efficient data movement plans among subtasks and platforms; and (iii) an efficient plan enumeration algorithm, based on a novel enumeration algebra. We extensively evaluate our optimizer under diverse real tasks. We show that our optimizer can perform tasks more than one order of magnitude faster when using multiple platforms than when using a single platform.

From June 14 to June 16, 2023, Hasso Plattner Institute, Potsdam, hosted the eighth European MOOC Stakeholder Summit (EMOOCs 2023). The pandemic is fortunately over. It has once again shown how important digital education is. How well-prepared a country was could be seen in our schools, universities, and companies. In different countries, the problems manifested themselves differently. The measures and approaches to solving the problems varied accordingly. Digital education, whether micro-credentials, MOOCs, blended learning formats, or other e-learning tools, received a major boost. EMOOCs 2023 focusses on the effects of this emergency situation. How has it affected the development and delivery of MOOCs and other e-learning offerings all over Europe? Which projects can serve as models for successful digital learning and teaching? Which roles can MOOCs and micro-credentials bear in the current business transformation? Is there a backlash to the routine we knew from pre-Corona times? Or have many things become firmly established in the meantime, e.g. remote work, hybrid conferences, etc.? Furthermore, EMOOCs 2023 has a closer look at the development and formalization of digital learning. Micro-credentials are just the starting point. Further steps in this direction would be complete online study programs or full online universities. Another main topic is the networking of learning offers and the standardization of formats and metadata. Examples of fruitful cooperations are the MOOChub, the European MOOC Consortium, and the Common Micro-Credential Framework. The learnings, derived from practical experience and research, are explored in EMOOCs 2023 in four tracks and additional workshops, covering various aspects of this field. In this publication, we present papers from the conference’s Research & Experience Track, the Business Track and the International Track.

While supporting the execution of business processes, information systems record event logs. Conformance checking relies on these logs to analyze whether the recorded behavior of a process conforms to the behavior of a normative specification. A key assumption of existing conformance checking techniques, however, is that all events are associated with timestamps that allow to infer a total order of events per process instance. Unfortunately, this assumption is often violated in practice. Due to synchronization issues, manual event recordings, or data corruption, events are only partially ordered. In this paper, we put forward the problem of partial order resolution of event logs to close this gap. It refers to the construction of a probability distribution over all possible total orders of events of an instance. To cope with the order uncertainty in real-world data, we present several estimators for this task, incorporating different notions of behavioral abstraction. Moreover, to reduce the runtime of conformance checking based on partial order resolution, we introduce an approximation method that comes with a bounded error in terms of accuracy. Our experiments with real-world and synthetic data reveal that our approach improves accuracy over the state-of-the-art considerably.

Due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, Earth’s average surface temperature is steadily increasing. As a consequence, many weather extremes are likely to become more frequent and intense. This poses a threat to natural and human systems, with local impacts capable of destroying exposed assets and infrastructure, and disrupting economic and societal activity. Yet, these effects are not locally confined to the directly affected regions, as they can trigger indirect economic repercussions through loss propagation along supply chains. As a result, local extremes yield a potentially global economic response. To build economic resilience and design effective adaptation measures that mitigate adverse socio-economic impacts of ongoing climate change, it is crucial to gain a comprehensive understanding of indirect impacts and the underlying economic mechanisms. Presenting six articles in this thesis, I contribute towards this understanding. To this end, I expand on local impacts under current and future climate, the resulting global economic response, as well as the methods and tools to analyze this response. Starting with a traditional assessment of weather extremes under climate change, the first article investigates extreme snowfall in the Northern Hemisphere until the end of the century. Analyzing an ensemble of global climate model projections reveals an increase of the most extreme snowfall, while mean snowfall decreases. Assessing repercussions beyond local impacts, I employ numerical simulations to compute indirect economic effects from weather extremes with the numerical agent-based shock propagation model Acclimate. This model is used in conjunction with the recently emerged storyline framework, which involves analyzing the impacts of a particular reference extreme event and comparing them to impacts in plausible counterfactual scenarios under various climate or socio-economic conditions. Using this approach, I introduce three primary storylines that shed light on the complex mechanisms underlying economic loss propagation. In the second and third articles of this thesis, I analyze storylines for the historical Hurricanes Sandy (2012) and Harvey (2017) in the USA. For this, I first estimate local economic output losses and then simulate the resulting global economic response with Acclimate. The storyline for Hurricane Sandy thereby focuses on global consumption price anomalies and the resulting changes in consumption. I find that the local economic disruption leads to a global wave-like economic price ripple, with upstream effects propagating in the supplier direction and downstream effects in the buyer direction. Initially, an upstream demand reduction causes consumption price decreases, followed by a downstream supply shortage and increasing prices, before the anomalies decay in a normalization phase. A dominant upstream or downstream effect leads to net consumption gains or losses of a region, respectively. Moreover, I demonstrate that a longer direct economic shock intensifies the downstream effect for many regions, leading to an overall consumption loss. The third article of my thesis builds upon the developed loss estimation method by incorporating projections to future global warming levels. I use these projections to explore how the global production response to Hurricane Harvey would change under further increased global warming. The results show that, while the USA is able to nationally offset direct losses in the reference configuration, other countries have to compensate for increasing shares of counterfactual future losses. This compensation is mainly achieved by large exporting countries, but gradually shifts towards smaller regions. These findings not only highlight the economy’s ability to flexibly mitigate disaster losses to a certain extent, but also reveal the vulnerability and economic disadvantage of regions that are exposed to extreme weather events. The storyline in the fourth article of my thesis investigates the interaction between global economic stress and the propagation of losses from weather extremes. I examine indirect impacts of weather extremes — tropical cyclones, heat stress, and river floods — worldwide under two different economic conditions: an unstressed economy and a globally stressed economy, as seen during the Covid-19 pandemic. I demonstrate that the adverse effects of weather extremes on global consumption are strongly amplified when the economy is under stress. Specifically, consumption losses in the USA and China double and triple, respectively, due to the global economy’s decreased capacity for disaster loss compensation. An aggravated scarcity intensifies the price response, causing consumption losses to increase. Advancing on the methods and tools used here, the final two articles in my thesis extend the agent-based model Acclimate and formalize the storyline approach. With the model extension described in the fifth article, regional consumers make rational choices on the goods bought such that their utility is maximized under a constrained budget. In an out-of-equilibrium economy, these rational consumers are shown to temporarily increase consumption of certain goods in spite of rising prices. The sixth article of my thesis proposes a formalization of the storyline framework, drawing on multiple studies including storylines presented in this thesis. The proposed guideline defines eight central elements that can be used to construct a storyline. Overall, this thesis contributes towards a better understanding of economic repercussions of weather extremes. It achieves this by providing assessments of local direct impacts, highlighting mechanisms and impacts of loss propagation, and advancing on methods and tools used.