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Institute
Towards seasonal prediction: stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the atmospheric model ICON-NWP
(2020)
Stratospheric variability is one of the main potential sources for sub-seasonal to seasonal predictability in mid-latitudes in winter. Stratospheric pathways play an important role for long-range teleconnections between tropical phenomena, such as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the mid-latitudes on the one hand, and linkages between Arctic climate change and the mid-latitudes on the other hand. In order to move forward in the field of extratropical seasonal predictions, it is essential that an atmospheric model is able to realistically simulate the stratospheric circulation and variability. The numerical weather prediction (NWP) configuration of the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic atmosphere model ICON is currently being used by the German Meteorological Service for the regular weather forecast, and is intended to produce seasonal predictions in future. This thesis represents the first extensive evaluation of Northern Hemisphere stratospheric winter circulation in ICON-NWP by analysing a large set of seasonal ensemble experiments.
An ICON control climatology simulated with a default setup is able to reproduce the basic behaviour of the stratospheric polar vortex. However, stratospheric westerlies are significantly too weak and major stratospheric warmings too frequent, especially in January. The weak stratospheric polar vortex in ICON is furthermore connected to a mean sea level pressure (MSLP) bias pattern resembling the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Since a good representation of the drag exerted by gravity waves is crucial for a realistic simulation of the stratosphere, three sensitivity experiments with reduced gravity wave drag are performed. Both a reduction of the non-orographic and orographic gravity wave drag respectively, lead to a strengthening of the stratospheric vortex and thus a bias reduction in winter, in particular in January. However, the effect of the non-orographic gravity wave drag on the stratosphere is stronger. A third experiment, combining a reduced orographic and non-orographic drag, exhibits the largest stratospheric bias reductions. The analysis of stratosphere-troposphere coupling based on an index of the Northern Annular Mode demonstrates that ICON realistically represents downward coupling. This coupling is intensified and more realistic in experiments with a reduced gravity wave drag, in particular with reduced non-orographic drag. Tropospheric circulation is also affected by the reduced gravity wave drag, especially in January, when the strongly improved stratospheric circulation reduces biases in the MSLP patterns. Moreover, a retuning of the subgrid-scale orography parameterisations leads to a significant error reduction in the MSLP in all months. In conclusion, the combination of these adjusted parameterisations is recommended as a current optimal setup for seasonal simulations with ICON.
Additionally, this thesis discusses further possible influences on the stratospheric polar vortex, including the influence of tropical phenomena, such as QBO and ENSO, as well as the influence of a rapidly warming Arctic. ICON does not simulate the quasi-oscillatory behaviour of the QBO and favours weak easterlies in the tropical stratosphere. A comparison with a reanalysis composite of the easterly QBO phase reveals, that the shift towards the easterly QBO in ICON further weakens the stratospheric polar vortex. On the other hand, the stratospheric reaction to ENSO events in ICON is realistic. ICON and the reanalysis exhibit a weakened stratospheric vortex in warm ENSO years. Furthermore, in particular in winter, warm ENSO events favour the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, whereas cold events favour the positive phase. The ICON simulations also suggest a significant effect of ENSO on the Atlantic-European sector in late winter. To investigate the influence of Arctic climate change on mid-latitude circulation changes, two differing approaches with transient and fixed sea ice conditions are chosen. Neither ICON approach exhibits the mid-latitude tropospheric negative Arctic Oscillation circulation response to amplified Arctic warming, as it is discussed on the basis of observational evidence. Nevertheless, adding a new model to the current and active discussion on Arctic-midlatitude linkages, further contributes to the understanding of divergent conclusions between model and observational studies.
Over the last decades, the rate of near-surface warming in the Arctic is at least double than elsewhere on our planet (Arctic amplification). However, the relative contribution of different feedback processes to Arctic amplification is a topic of ongoing research, including the role of aerosol and clouds. Lidar systems are well-suited for the investigation of aerosol and optically-thin clouds as they provide vertically-resolved information on fine temporal scales. Global aerosol models fail to converge on the sign of the Arctic aerosol radiative effect (ARE). In the first part of this work, the optical and microphysical properties of Arctic aerosol were characterized at case study level in order to assess the short-wave (SW) ARE. A long-range transport episode was first investigated. Geometrically similar aerosol layers were captured over three locations. Although the aerosol size distribution was different between Fram Strait(bi-modal) and Ny-Ålesund (fine mono-modal), the atmospheric column ARE was similar. The latter was related to the domination of accumulation mode aerosol. Over both locations top of the atmosphere (TOA) warming was accompanied by surface cooling.
Subsequently, the sensitivity of ARE was investigated with respect to different aerosol and spring-time ambient conditions. A 10% change in the single-scattering albedo (SSA) induced higher ARE perturbations compared to a 30% change in the aerosol extinction coefficient. With respect to ambient conditions, the ARETOA was more sensitive to solar elevation changes compared to AREsur f ace. Over dark surfaces the ARE profile was exclusively negative, while over bright surfaces a negative to positive shift occurred above the aerosol layers. Consequently, the sign of ARE can be highly sensitive in spring since this season is characterized by transitional surface albedo conditions.
As the inversion of the aerosol microphysics is an ill-posed problem, the inferred aerosol size distribution of a low-tropospheric event was compared to the in-situ measured distribution. Both techniques revealed a bi-modal distribution, with good agreement in the total volume concentration. However, in terms of SSA a disagreement was found, with the lidar inversion indicating highly scattering particles and the in-situ measurements pointing to absorbing particles. The discrepancies could stem from assumptions in the inversion (e.g. wavelength-independent refractive index) and errors in the conversion of the in-situ measured light attenuation into absorption. Another source of discrepancy might be related to an incomplete capture of fine particles in the in-situ sensors. The disagreement in the most critical parameter for the Arctic ARE necessitates further exploration in the frame of aerosol closure experiments. Care must be taken in ARE modelling studies, which may use either the in-situ or lidar-derived SSA as input.
Reliable characterization of cirrus geometrical and optical properties is necessary for improving their radiative estimates. In this respect, the detection of sub-visible cirrus is of special importance. The total cloud radiative effect (CRE) can be negatively biased, should only the optically-thin and opaque cirrus contributions are considered. To this end, a cirrus retrieval scheme was developed aiming at increased sensitivity to thin clouds. The cirrus detection was based on the wavelet covariance transform (WCT) method, extended by dynamic thresholds. The dynamic WCT exhibited high sensitivity to faint and thin cirrus layers (less than 200 m) that were partly or completely undetected by the existing static method. The optical characterization scheme extended the Klett–Fernald retrieval by an iterative lidar ratio (LR) determination (constrained Klett). The iterative process was constrained by a reference value, which indicated the aerosol concentration beneath the cirrus cloud. Contrary to existing approaches, the aerosol-free assumption was not adopted, but the aerosol conditions were approximated by an initial guess. The inherent uncertainties of the constrained Klett were higher for optically-thinner cirrus, but an overall good agreement was found with two established retrievals. Additionally, existing approaches, which rely on aerosol-free assumptions, presented increased accuracy when the proposed reference value was adopted. The constrained Klett retrieved reliably the optical properties in all cirrus regimes, including upper sub-visible cirrus with COD down to 0.02.
Cirrus is the only cloud type capable of inducing TOA cooling or heating at daytime. Over the Arctic, however, the properties and CRE of cirrus are under-explored. In the final part of this work, long-term cirrus geometrical and optical properties were investigated for the first time over an Arctic site (Ny-Ålesund). To this end, the newly developed retrieval scheme was employed. Cirrus layers over Ny-Ålesund seemed to be more absorbing in the visible spectral region compared to lower latitudes and comprise relatively more spherical ice particles. Such meridional differences could be related to discrepancies in absolute humidity and ice nucleation mechanisms. The COD tended to decline for less spherical and smaller ice particles probably due to reduced water vapor deposition on the particle surface. The cirrus optical properties presented weak dependence on ambient temperature and wind conditions.
Over the 10 years of the analysis, no clear temporal trend was found and the seasonal cycle was not pronounced. However, winter cirrus appeared under colder conditions and stronger winds. Moreover, they were optically-thicker, less absorbing and consisted of relatively more spherical ice particles. A positive CREnet was primarily revealed for a broad range of representative cloud properties and ambient conditions. Only for high COD (above 10) and over tundra a negative CREnet was estimated, which did not hold true over snow/ice surfaces. Consequently, the COD in combination with the surface albedo seem to play the most critical role in determining the CRE sign over the high European Arctic.
Extreme weather and climate events are one of the greatest dangers for present-day society. Therefore, it is important to provide reliable statements on what changes in extreme events can be expected along with future global climate change. However, the projected overall response to future climate change is generally a result of a complex interplay between individual physical mechanisms originated within the different climate subsystems. Hence, a profound understanding of these individual contributions is required in order to provide meaningful assessments of future changes in extreme events. One aspect of climate change is the recently observed phenomenon of Arctic Amplification and the related dramatic Arctic sea ice decline, which is expected to continue over the next decades. The question to what extent Arctic sea ice loss is able to affect atmospheric dynamics and extreme events over mid-latitudes has received a lot of attention over recent years and still remains a highly debated topic.
In this respect, the objective of this thesis is to contribute to a better understanding on the impact of future Arctic sea ice retreat on European temperature extremes and large-scale atmospheric dynamics.
The outcomes are based on model data from the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6. Two different sea ice sensitivity simulations from the Polar Amplification Intercomparison Project are employed and contrasted to a present day reference experiment: one experiment with prescribed future sea ice loss over the entire Arctic, as well as another one with sea ice reductions only locally prescribed over the Barents-Kara Sea.% prescribed over the entire Arctic, as well as only locally over the Barent/Karasea with a present day reference experiment.
The first part of the thesis focuses on how future Arctic sea ice reductions affect large-scale atmospheric dynamics over the Northern Hemisphere in terms of occurrence frequency changes of five preferred Euro-Atlantic circulation regimes. When compared to circulation regimes computed from ERA5 it shows that ECHAM6 is able to realistically simulate the regime structures. Both ECHAM6 sea ice sensitivity experiments exhibit similar regime frequency changes. Consistent with tendencies found in ERA5, a more frequent occurrence of a Scandinavian blocking pattern in midwinter is for instance detected under future sea ice conditions in the sensitivity experiments. Changes in occurrence frequencies of circulation regimes in summer season are however barely detected.
After identifying suitable regime storylines for the occurrence of European temperature extremes in winter, the previously detected regime frequency changes are used to quantify dynamically and thermodynamically driven contributions to sea ice-induced changes in European winter temperature extremes.
It is for instance shown how the preferred occurrence of a Scandinavian blocking regime under low sea ice conditions dynamically contributes to more frequent midwinter cold extreme occurrences over Central Europe. In addition, a reduced occurrence frequency of a Atlantic trough regime is linked to reduced winter warm extremes over Mid-Europe. Furthermore, it is demonstrated how the overall thermodynamical warming effect due to sea ice loss can result in less (more) frequent winter cold (warm) extremes, and consequently counteracts the dynamically induced changes.
Compared to winter season, circulation regimes in summer are less suitable as storylines for the occurrence of summer heat extremes.
Therefore, an approach based on circulation analogues is employed in order to quantify thermodyamically and dynamically driven contributions to sea ice-induced changes of summer heat extremes over three different European sectors. Reduced occurrences of blockings over Western Russia are detected in the ECHAM6 sea ice sensitivity experiments; however, arguing for dynamically and thermodynamically induced contributions to changes in summer heat extremes remains rather challenging.
Properties of Arctic aerosol in the transition between Arctic haze to summer season derived by lidar
(2023)
During the Arctic haze period, the Arctic troposphere consists of larger, yet fewer, aerosol particles than during the summer (Tunved et al., 2013; Quinn et al., 2007). Interannual variability (Graßl and Ritter, 2019; Rinke et al., 2004), as well as unknown origins (Stock et al., 2014) and properties of aerosol complicate modeling these annual aerosol cycles. This thesis investigates the modification of the microphysical properties of Arctic aerosols in the transition from Arctic haze to the summer season. Therefore, lidar measurements of Ny-Ålesund from April 2021 to the end of July 2021 are evaluated based on the aerosols’ optical properties. An overview of those properties will be provided. Furthermore, parallel radiosonde data is considered for indication of hygroscopic growth.
The annual aerosol cycle in 2021 differs from expectations based on previous studies from Tunved et al. (2013) and Quinn et al. (2007). Developments of backscatter, extinction, aerosol depolarisation, lidar ratio and color ratio show a return of the Arctic haze in May. The haze had already reduced in April, but regrew afterwards.
The average Arctic aerosol displays hygroscopic behaviour, meaning growth due to water uptake. To determine such a behaviour is generally laborious because various meteorological circumstances need to be considered. Two case studies provide further information on these possible events. In particular, a day with a rare ice cloud and with highly variable water cloud layers is observed.
The icosahedral non-hydrostatic large eddy model (ICON-LEM) was applied around the drift track of the Multidisciplinary Observatory Study of the Arctic (MOSAiC) in 2019 and 2020. The model was set up with horizontal grid-scales between 100m and 800m on areas with radii of 17.5km and 140 km. At its lateral boundaries, the model was driven by analysis data from the German Weather Service (DWD), downscaled by ICON in limited area mode (ICON-LAM) with horizontal grid-scale of 3 km.
The aim of this thesis was the investigation of the atmospheric boundary layer near the surface in the central Arctic during polar winter with a high-resolution mesoscale model. The default settings in ICON-LEM prevent the model from representing the exchange processes in the Arctic boundary layer in accordance to the MOSAiC observations. The implemented sea-ice scheme in ICON does not include a snow layer on sea-ice, which causes a too slow response of the sea-ice surface temperature to atmospheric changes. To allow the sea-ice surface to respond faster to changes in the atmosphere, the implemented sea-ice parameterization in ICON was extended with an adapted heat capacity term.
The adapted sea-ice parameterization resulted in better agreement with the MOSAiC observations. However, the sea-ice surface temperature in the model is generally lower than observed due to biases in the downwelling long-wave radiation and the lack of complex surface structures, like leads. The large eddy resolving turbulence closure yielded a better representation of the lower boundary layer under strongly stable stratification than the non-eddy-resolving turbulence closure. Furthermore, the integration of leads into the sea-ice surface reduced the overestimation of the sensible heat flux for different weather conditions.
The results of this work help to better understand boundary layer processes in the central Arctic during the polar night. High-resolving mesoscale simulations are able to represent temporally and spatially small interactions and help to further develop parameterizations also for the application in regional and global models.