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Recent global warming is pronounced in high-latitude regions (e.g. northern Asia), and will cause the vegetation to change. Future vegetation trends (e.g. the "arctic greening") will feed back into atmospheric circulation and the global climate system. Understanding the nature and causes of past vegetation changes is important for predicting the composition and distribution of future vegetation communities. Fossil pollen records from 468 sites in northern and eastern Asia were biomised at selected times between 40 cal ka bp and today. Biomes were also simulated using a climate-driven biome model and results from the two approaches compared in order to help understand the mechanisms behind the observed vegetation changes. The consistent biome results inferred by both approaches reveal that long-term and broad-scale vegetation patterns reflect global- to hemispheric-scale climate changes. Forest biomes increase around the beginning of the late deglaciation, become more widespread during the early and middle Holocene, and decrease in the late Holocene in fringe areas of the Asian Summer Monsoon. At the southern and southwestern margins of the taiga, forest increases in the early Holocene and shows notable species succession, which may have been caused by winter warming at ca. 7 cal ka bp. At the northeastern taiga margin (central Yakutia and northeastern Siberia), shrub expansion during the last deglaciation appears to prevent the permafrost from thawing and hinders the northward expansion of evergreen needle-leaved species until ca. 7 cal ka bp. The vegetation-climate disequilibrium during the early Holocene in the taiga-tundra transition zone suggests that projected climate warming will not cause a northward expansion of evergreen needle-leaved species.
This study provides a detailed analysis of the mid-Holocene to present-day precipitation change in the Asian monsoon region. We compare for the first time results of high resolution climate model simulations with a standardised set of mid-Holocene moisture reconstructions. Changes in the simulated summer monsoon characteristics (onset, withdrawal, length and associated rainfall) and the mechanisms causing the Holocene precipitation changes are investigated. According to the model, most parts of the Indian subcontinent received more precipitation (up to 5 mm/day) at mid-Holocene than at present-day. This is related to a stronger Indian summer monsoon accompanied by an intensified vertically integrated moisture flux convergence. The East Asian monsoon region exhibits local inhomogeneities in the simulated annual precipitation signal. The sign of this signal depends on the balance of decreased pre-monsoon and increased monsoon precipitation at mid-Holocene compared to present-day. Hence, rainfall changes in the East Asian monsoon domain are not solely associated with modifications in the summer monsoon circulation but also depend on changes in the mid-latitudinal westerly wind system that dominates the circulation during the pre-monsoon season. The proxy-based climate reconstructions confirm the regional dissimilarities in the annual precipitation signal and agree well with the model results. Our results highlight the importance of including the pre-monsoon season in climate studies of the Asian monsoon system and point out the complex response of this system to the Holocene insolation forcing. The comparison with a coarse climate model simulation reveals that this complex response can only be resolved in high resolution simulations.
Recent and subfossil pollen spectra from the Alashan Plateau are presented in order to provide information on desert plant representation and on recent changes in vegetation and climate in this remote area in northern China. The desert vegetation composition is faithfully represented by the surface pollen spectra. The comparison of the desert plant species to the related pollen taxa yielded the following sequence from over-representation to under- representation: Chenopodiaceae, Artemisia, Ephedra fragilis-type s.l., Reaumuria, Nitraria and Calligonum. A 72 cm long sediment record from a small hydrologically-closed inter-dune lake (SE Badan Jilin Sand Sea, southern Alashan Plateau) covering the past similar to 160 years (dated by(137)Cs) was analysed palynologically. Intervals of denser Artemisia coverage on the sand dunes around the lake, indicating wetter climate, occurred from the mid-1850s to the mid-1870s, during the first two decades of the 20th century and from the late 1930s to the beginning of the 1960s
A 13.94-m-long sediment core, collected from a medium-sized lake in the Qilian Mountains (NE Tibetan Plateau, China), was analysed palynologically at 81 horizons. The interpretation of indicator taxa yielded various vertical shifts of the vegetation belts. These palaeovegetation results have been checked with lake surface pollen spectra from 8 takes representing different altitudinal vegetation belts. Our main findings are the following: A short period of the late Marine Isotope Stage 3 (around similar to 46,000 yr ago) was characterized by interglacial temperature conditions with a tree line above its present-day altitude. During the LGM, the vicinity of the lake was not covered by ice but by sparse alpine vegetation and alpine deserts, indicating that the climate was colder by similar to 4-7 degrees C than today Markedly higher temperatures were inferred from higher arboreal pollen frequencies between similar to 13,000 and similar to 7000 yr ago with a Holocene temperature optimum and a maximal Picea-Betula mixed-forest expansion between similar to 9000 and similar to 7000 yr ago, when temperatures exceeded the present-day conditions by at least 1-2 degrees C. Alpine steppes and meadows and sub-alpine shrub vegetation dominated around the lake since the middle Holocene, suggesting that vegetation and climate conditions were exceptionally stable in comparison to previous periods.
It is of major interest to estimate the feedback of arctic ecosystems to the global warming we expect in upcoming decades. The speed of this response is driven by the potential of species to migrate, tracking their climate optimum. For this, sessile plants have to produce and disperse seeds to newly available habitats, and pollination of ovules is needed for the seeds to be viable. These two processes are also the vectors that pass genetic information through a population. A restricted exchange among subpopulations might lead to a maladapted population due to diversity losses. Hence, a realistic implementation of these dispersal processes into a simulation model would allow an assessment of the importance of diversity for the migration of plant species in various environments worldwide. To date, dynamic global vegetation models have been optimized for a global application and overestimate the migration of biome shifts in currently warming temperatures. We hypothesize that this is caused by neglecting important fine-scale processes, which are necessary to estimate realistic vegetation trajectories. Recently, we built and parameterized a simulation model LAVESI for larches that dominate the latitudinal treelines in the northernmost areas of Siberia. In this study, we updated the vegetation model by including seed and pollen dispersal driven by wind speed and direction. The seed dispersal is modelled as a ballistic flight, and for the pollination of ovules of seeds produced, we implemented a wind-determined and distance-dependent probability distribution function using a von Mises distribution to select the pollen donor. A local sensitivity analysis of both processes supported the robustness of the model's results to the parameterization, although it highlighted the importance of recruitment and seed dispersal traits for migration rates. This individual-based and spatially explicit implementation of both dispersal processes makes it easily feasible to inherit plant traits and genetic information to assess the impact of migration processes on the genetics. Finally, we suggest how the final model can be applied to substantially help in unveiling the important drivers of migration dynamics and, with this, guide the improvement of recent global vegetation models.
A sediment core from Khatanga-12 Lake (Taimyr Peninsula, Krasnoyarsk krai) has been studied. The 131.5-cm-long core covers ca. 7100 years of sedimentation. Chironomid analysis, a qualitative reconstruction of the paleoenvironment in the region, and a quantitative reconstruction of variations of the mean July air temperature and in the water depth of the lake have been performed using Northern Russia chironomid-inferred mean July temperature models (Nazarova et al., 2008, 2011, 2015). Khatanga-12 Lake was formed during the Middle Holocene warming as a result of thermokarst processes. The development of the lake ecosystem at different stages of its development was influenced by climatic and cryolithogenic factors. The Middle Holocene warming, which occurred around 7100-6250 cal. years BP, activated thermokarst processes and resulted in the formation of the lake basin. Later, between 6250 and 4500 cal. years BP, a period of cooling took place, as is proved by chironomid analysis. The bottom sediments of the lake during this period were formed by erosion processes on the lake shores. The reconstructed conditions were close to the modern after 2500 cal. years BP.
The large variety of atmospheric circulation systems affecting the eastern Asian climate is reflected by the complex Asian vegetation distribution. Particularly in the transition zones of these circulation systems, vegetation is supposed to be very sensitive to climate change. Since proxy records are scarce, hitherto a mechanistic understanding of the past spatio-temporal climate-vegetation relationship is lacking. To assess the Holocene vegetation change and to obtain an ensemble of potential mid-Holocene biome distributions for eastern Asia, we forced the diagnostic biome model BIOME4 with climate anomalies of different transient Holocene climate simulations performed in coupled atmosphere-ocean(-vegetation) models. The simulated biome changes are compared with pollen-based biome records for different key regions. In all simulations, substantial biome shifts during the last 6000 years are confined to the high northern latitudes and the monsoon-westerly wind transition zone, but the temporal evolution and amplitude of change strongly depend on the climate forcing. Large parts of the southern tundra are replaced by taiga during the mid-Holocene due to a warmer growing season and the boreal treeline in northern Asia is shifted northward by approx. 4 degrees in the ensemble mean, ranging from 1.5 to 6 degrees in the individual simulations, respectively. This simulated treeline shift is in agreement with pollen-based reconstructions from northern Siberia. The desert fraction in the transition zone is reduced by 21% during the mid-Holocene compared to pre-industrial due to enhanced precipitation. The desert-steppe margin is shifted westward by 5 degrees (1-9 degrees in the individual simulations). The forest biomes are expanded north-westward by 2 degrees, ranging from 0 to 4 degrees in the single simulations. These results corroborate pollen-based reconstructions indicating an extended forest area in north-central China during the mid-Holocene. According to the model, the forest-to-non-forest and steppe-to-desert changes in the climate transition zones are spatially not uniform and not linear since the mid-Holocene.
Temporal and spatial stability of the vegetation climate relationship is a basic ecological assumption for pollen-based quantitative inferences of past climate change and for predicting future vegetation. We explore this assumption for the Holocene in eastern continental Asia (China, Mongolia). Boosted regression trees (BRT) between fossil pollen taxa percentages (Abies, Artemisia, Betula, Chenopodiaceae, Cyperaceae, Ephedra, Picea, Pinus, Poaceae and Quercus) and climate model outputs of mean annual precipitation (P-ann) and mean temperature of the warmest month (Mt(wa)) for 9 and 6 ka (ka = thousand years before present) were set up and results compared to those obtained from relating modern pollen to modern climate. Overall, our results reveal only slight temporal differences in the pollen climate relationships. Our analyses suggest that the importance of P-ann compared with Mt(wa) for taxa distribution is higher today than it was at 6 ka and 9 ka. In particular, the relevance of P-ann for Picea and Pinus increases and has become the main determinant. This change in the climate tree pollen relationship parallels a widespread tree pollen decrease in north-central China and the eastern Tibetan Plateau. We assume that this is at least partly related to vegetation climate disequilibrium originating from human impact. Increased atmospheric CO2 concentration may have permitted the expansion of moisture-loving herb taxa (Cyperaceae and Poaceae) during the late Holocene into arid/semi-arid areas. We furthermore find that the pollen climate relationship between north-central China and the eastern Tibetan Plateau is generally similar, but that regional differences are larger than temporal differences. In summary, vegetation climate relationships in China are generally stable in space and time, and pollen-based climate reconstructions can be applied to the Holocene. Regional differences imply the calibration-set should be restricted spatially.
We investigated 4.84-m-long sediment record spanning over the Late Glacial and Holocene from Lake Donggi Cona to be able to reconstruct circulation pattern on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Presently, Lake Donggi Cona is located at the boundaries of Westerlies and Asian monsoon circulations in the northeastern TP. However, the exact timing and stimulating mechanisms for climatic changes and monsoon shifts in this region are still debated. We used a 19-ka-long stable isotope record of sedimentary n-alkanes to address this discrepancy by providing insights into paleohydrological conditions. The SD of nC(23) is influenced by lake water evaporation; the BD. values of sedimentary nC(29) are mainly controlled by moisture source and temperature changes. Long-chain n-alkanes dominate over the core whereas three mean clusters (i.e. microbial, aquatic and terrestrial) can be inferred. Multi-proxies suggest five major episodes in the history of Lake Donggi Cona. The Lake Donggi Cona record indicates that the Late Glacial(18.4-14.8 cal ka BP) was dominated by low productivity of mainly microbial and aquatic organisms. Relatively low delta D values suggest low temperatures and moist conditions eventually caused by stronger Westerlies, winter monsoon and melt-water influence. Likely, the shift (similar to 17.9 cal ka BP) from microbial to enhanced aquatic input suggests either a change from deep to shallow water lake or a break in local stratification. Between 14.8 and 13.0 cal ka BP, variable climatic conditions prevailed. Although the Westerlies weekend, the increase in temperature enhanced the permafrost and snow melting (displayed by a high sedimentary accumulation rate). Higher delta D values indicate increasingly arid conditions with higher temperatures which eventually lead to high evaporative conditions and lowest lake levels. Low vegetation cover and high erosion rates led to high sediment accumulation resulting in stratification followed by anoxia in the terminal lake. From 13.0 to 9.2 cal ka BP, lowered values of 813 along with high contents of terrestrial organic matter marked the early-Holocene warming indicating a further strengthening of summer precipitation and higher lake levels. A cooling trend was observed in the mid-Holocene between 9.2 and 3.0 cal ka BP accompanied by higher moisture availability (displayed by lowered SD values) caused by reduced evaporative conditions due to a drop in temperature and recovering Westerlies. After 3.0 cal ka BP, a decrease in lake productivity and cold and semi-arid conditions prevailed suggesting lower lake levels and reduced moisture from recycled air masses and Westerlies. We propose that the summer monsoon was the predominant moisture source during the Belling-Allered warm complex and early -Holocene followed by Westerlies in mid-to-late Holocene period. Stable carbon isotope values-32%o indicate the absence of C-4 -type vegetation in the region contradicting with their presence in the Lake Qinghai record. The 81) record from lake Donggi Cona highlights the importance of the interplay between Westerlies and summer monsoon circulation at this location, which is highly dynamic in northeastern plateau compared to the North Atlantic circulation and insolation changes. Consequently lake Donggi Cona might be an important anchor point for environmental reconstructions on the Tibetan Plateau. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Understanding vegetation-modern pollen relationships is essential to provide confidence in fossil pollen reconstructions of long-term vegetation changes in savanna ecosystems. In this paper we compare the taxonomical composition and the diversity (Hill NO, N1, N2) of vegetation and modern pollen along precipitation and local grazing-intensity gradients in Namibian savannas. Modern pollen was extracted from surface soil samples collected from 5 x 5 m plots distributed along four 500 m gradients. Vegetation was surveyed in each plot. The results show a high correspondence between vegetation and pollen data in terms of composition. Precipitation and grazing explain a significant although low proportion of compositional change in the vegetation and pollen spectra. We identified pollen taxa as indicators of grazing pressure such as Limeum, Alternanthera, and particularly Tribulus. Correspondence between vegetation and pollen data in terms of taxa richness (NO) is limited, probably because of the influence of landscape heterogeneity and openness, as well as low pollen concentrations. In contrast, the effective numbers of common and dominant taxa (N1, N2) are consistent among the different datasets. We conclude that in spite of limitations, modern pollen assemblages can reflect changes in vegetation composition, richness and diversity patterns along precipitation and grazing gradients in savanna environments. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.