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Near-surface geophysical imaging of alluvial fan settings is a challenging task but crucial for understating geological processes in such settings. The alluvial fan of Ghor Al-Haditha at the southeast shore of the Dead Sea is strongly affected by localized subsidence and destructive sinkhole collapses, with a significantly increasing sinkhole formation rate since ca. 1983. A similar increase is observed also on the western shore of the Dead Sea, in correlation with an ongoing decline in the Dead Sea level. Since different structural models of the upper 50 m of the alluvial fan and varying hypothetical sinkhole processes have been suggested for the Ghor Al-Haditha area in the past, this study aimed to clarify the subsurface characteristics responsible for sinkhole development. For this purpose, high-frequency shear wave reflection vibratory seismic surveys were carried out in the Ghor Al-Haditha area along several crossing and parallel profiles with a total length of 1.8 and 2.1 km in 2013 and 2014, respectively. The sedimentary architecture of the alluvial fan at Ghor Al-Haditha is resolved down to a depth of nearly 200 m at a high resolution and is calibrated with the stratigraphic profiles of two boreholes located inside the survey area. The most surprising result of the survey is the absence of evidence of a thick (>2-10 m) compacted salt layer formerly suggested to lie at ca. 35-40 m depth. Instead, seismic reflection amplitudes and velocities image with good continuity a complex interlocking of alluvial fan deposits and lacustrine sediments of the Dead Sea between 0 and 200 m depth. Furthermore, the underground section of areas affected by sinkholes is characterized by highly scattering wave fields and reduced seismic interval velocities. We propose that the Dead Sea mud layers, which comprise distributed inclusions or lenses of evaporitic chloride, sulfate, and carbonate minerals as well as clay silicates, become increasingly exposed to unsaturated water as the sea level declines and are consequently destabilized and mobilized by both dissolution and physical erosion in the subsurface. This new interpretation of the underlying cause of sinkhole development is supported by surface observations in nearby channel systems. Overall, this study shows that shear wave seismic reflection technique is a promising method for enhanced near-surface imaging in such challenging alluvial fan settings.
Mechanical and/or chemical removal of material from the subsurface may generate large subsurface cavities, the destabilisation of which can lead to ground collapse and the formation of sinkholes. Numerical simulation of the interaction of cavity growth, host material deformation and overburden collapse is desirable to better understand the sinkhole hazard but is a challenging task due to the involved high strains and material discontinuities. Here, we present 2-D distinct element method numerical simulations of cavity growth and sinkhole development. Firstly, we simulate cavity formation by quasi-static, stepwise removal of material in a single growing zone of an arbitrary geometry and depth. We benchmark this approach against analytical and boundary element method models of a deep void space in a linear elastic material. Secondly, we explore the effects of properties of different uniform materials on cavity stability and sinkhole development. We perform simulated biaxial tests to calibrate macroscopic geotechnical parameters of three model materials representative of those in which sinkholes develop at the Dead Sea shoreline: mud, alluvium and salt. We show that weak materials do not support large cavities, leading to gradual sagging or suffusion-style subsidence. Strong materials support quasi-stable to stable cavities, the overburdens of which may fail suddenly in a caprock or bedrock collapse style. Thirdly, we examine the consequences of layered arrangements of weak and strong materials. We find that these are more susceptible to sinkhole collapse than uniform materials not only due to a lower integrated strength of the overburden but also due to an inhibition of stabilising stress arching. Finally, we compare our model sinkhole geometries to observations at the Ghor Al-Haditha sinkhole site in Jordan. Sinkhole depth / diameter ratios of 0.15 in mud, 0.37 in alluvium and 0.33 in salt are reproduced successfully in the calibrated model materials. The model results suggest that the observed distribution of sinkhole depth / diameter values in each material type may partly reflect sinkhole growth trends.
Mechanical and/or chemical removal of material from the subsurface may generate large subsurface cavities, the destabilisation of which can lead to ground collapse and the formation of sinkholes. Numerical simulation of the interaction of cavity growth, host material deformation and overburden collapse is desirable to better understand the sinkhole hazard but is a challenging task due to the involved high strains and material discontinuities. Here, we present 2-D distinct element method numerical simulations of cavity growth and sinkhole development. Firstly, we simulate cavity formation by quasi-static, stepwise removal of material in a single growing zone of an arbitrary geometry and depth. We benchmark this approach against analytical and boundary element method models of a deep void space in a linear elastic material. Secondly, we explore the effects of properties of different uniform materials on cavity stability and sinkhole development. We perform simulated biaxial tests to calibrate macroscopic geotechnical parameters of three model materials representative of those in which sinkholes develop at the Dead Sea shoreline: mud, alluvium and salt. We show that weak materials do not support large cavities, leading to gradual sagging or suffusion-style subsidence. Strong materials support quasi-stable to stable cavities, the overburdens of which may fail suddenly in a caprock or bedrock collapse style. Thirdly, we examine the consequences of layered arrangements of weak and strong materials. We find that these are more susceptible to sinkhole collapse than uniform materials not only due to a lower integrated strength of the overburden but also due to an inhibition of stabilising stress arching. Finally, we compare our model sinkhole geometries to observations at the Ghor Al-Haditha sinkhole site in Jordan. Sinkhole depth ∕ diameter ratios of 0.15 in mud, 0.37 in alluvium and 0.33 in salt are reproduced successfully in the calibrated model materials. The model results suggest that the observed distribution of sinkhole depth ∕ diameter values in each material type may partly reflect sinkhole growth trends.
Near-surface geophysical imaging of alluvial fan settings is a challenging task but crucial for understating geological processes in such settings. The alluvial fan of Ghor Al-Haditha at the southeast shore of the Dead Sea is strongly affected by localized subsidence and destructive sinkhole collapses, with a significantly increasing sinkhole formation rate since ca. 1983. A similar increase is observed also on the western shore of the Dead Sea, in correlation with an ongoing decline in the Dead Sea level. Since different structural models of the upper 50 m of the alluvial fan and varying hypothetical sinkhole processes have been suggested for the Ghor Al-Haditha area in the past, this study aimed to clarify the subsurface characteristics responsible for sinkhole development.
For this purpose, high-frequency shear wave reflection vibratory seismic surveys were carried out in the Ghor Al-Haditha area along several crossing and parallel profiles with a total length of 1.8 and 2.1 km in 2013 and 2014, respectively. The sedimentary architecture of the alluvial fan at Ghor Al-Haditha is resolved down to a depth of nearly 200 m at a high resolution and is calibrated with the stratigraphic profiles of two boreholes located inside the survey area.
The most surprising result of the survey is the absence of evidence of a thick (> 2–10 m) compacted salt layer formerly suggested to lie at ca. 35–40 m depth. Instead, seismic reflection amplitudes and velocities image with good continuity a complex interlocking of alluvial fan deposits and lacustrine sediments of the Dead Sea between 0 and 200 m depth. Furthermore, the underground section of areas affected by sinkholes is characterized by highly scattering wave fields and reduced seismic interval velocities. We propose that the Dead Sea mud layers, which comprise distributed inclusions or lenses of evaporitic chloride, sulfate, and carbonate minerals as well as clay silicates, become increasingly exposed to unsaturated water as the sea level declines and are consequently destabilized and mobilized by both dissolution and physical erosion in the subsurface. This new interpretation of the underlying cause of sinkhole development is supported by surface observations in nearby channel systems. Overall, this study shows that shear wave seismic reflection technique is a promising method for enhanced near-surface imaging in such challenging alluvial fan settings.
The moment magnitude (M-w) 5.5 earthquake that struck South Korea in November 2017 was one of the largest and most damaging events in that country over the past century. Its proximity to an enhanced geothermal system site, where high-pressure hydraulic injection had been performed during the previous 2 years, raises the possibility that this earthquake was anthropogenic. We have combined seismological and geodetic analyses to characterize the mainshock and its largest aftershocks, constrain the geometry of this seismic sequence, and shed light on its causal factors. According to our analysis, it seems plausible that the occurrence of this earthquake was influenced by the aforementioned industrial activities. Finally, we found that the earthquake transferred static stress to larger nearby faults, potentially increasing the seismic hazard in the area.
In public perception, abnormal animal behavior is widely assumed to be a potential earthquake precursor, in strong contrast to the viewpoint in natural sciences. Proponents of earthquake prediction via animals claim that animals feel and react abnormally to small changes in environmental and physico-chemical parameters related to the earthquake preparation process. In seismology, however, observational evidence for changes of physical parameters before earthquakes is very weak. In this study, we reviewed 180 publications regarding abnormal animal behavior before earthquakes and analyze and discuss them with respect to (1) magnitude-distance relations, (2) foreshock activity, and (3) the quality and length of the published observations. More than 700 records of claimed animal precursors related to 160 earthquakes are reviewed with unusual behavior of more than 130 species. The precursor time ranges from months to seconds prior to the earthquakes, and the distances from a few to hundreds of kilometers. However, only 14 time series were published, whereas all other records are single observations. The time series are often short (the longest is 1 yr), or only small excerpts of the full data set are shown. The probability density of foreshocks and the occurrence of animal precursors are strikingly similar, suggesting that at least parts of the reported animal precursors are in fact related to foreshocks. Another major difficulty for a systematic and statistical analysis is the high diversity of data, which are often only anecdotal and retrospective. The study clearly demonstrates strong weaknesses or even deficits in many of the published reports on possible abnormal animal behavior. To improve the research on precursors, we suggest a scheme of yes and no questions to be assessed to ensure the quality of such claims.