Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.

The simulation of broad-band (0.1 to 10 + Hz) ground-shaking over deep and spatially extended sedimentary basins at regional scales is challenging. We evaluate the ground-shaking of a potential M 6.5 earthquake in the southern Lower Rhine Embayment, one of the most important areas of earthquake recurrence north of the Alps, close to the city of Cologne in Germany. In a first step, information from geological investigations, seismic experiments and boreholes is combined for deriving a harmonized 3D velocity and attenuation model of the sedimentary layers. Three alternative approaches are then applied and compared to evaluate the impact of the sedimentary cover on ground-motion amplification. The first approach builds on existing response spectra ground-motion models whose amplification factors empirically take into account the influence of the sedimentary layers through a standard parameterization. In the second approach, site-specific 1D amplification functions are computed from the 3D basin model. Using a random vibration theory approach, we adjust the empirical response spectra predicted for soft rock conditions by local site amplification factors: amplifications and associated ground-motions are predicted both in the Fourier and in the response spectra domain. In the third approach, hybrid physics-based ground-motion simulations are used to predict time histories for soft rock conditions which are subsequently modified using the 1D site-specific amplification functions computed in method 2. For large distances and at short periods, the differences between the three approaches become less notable due to the significant attenuation of the sedimentary layers. At intermediate and long periods, generic empirical ground-motion models provide lower levels of amplification from sedimentary soils compared to methods taking into account site-specific 1D amplification functions. In the near-source region, hybrid physics-based ground-motions models illustrate the potentially large variability of ground-motion due to finite source effects.