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Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.
Aim: Across the planet, grass-dominated biomes are experiencing shrub encroachment driven by atmospheric CO2 enrichment and land-use change. By altering resource structure and availability, shrub encroachment may have important impacts on vertebrate communities. We sought to determine the magnitude and variability of these effects across climatic gradients, continents, and taxa, and to learn whether shrub thinning restores the structure of vertebrate communities. Location: Worldwide. Time period: Contemporary. Major taxa studied: Terrestrial vertebrates. Methods: We estimated relationships between percentage shrub cover and the structure of terrestrial vertebrate communities (species richness, Shannon diversity and community abundance) in experimentally thinned and unmanipulated shrub-encroached grass-dominated biomes using systematic review and meta-analyses of 43 studies published from 1978 to 2016. We modelled the effects of continent, biome, mean annual precipitation, net primary productivity and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) on the relationship between shrub cover and vertebrate community structure. Results: Species richness, Shannon diversity and total abundance had no consistent relationship with shrub encroachment and experimental thinning did not reverse encroachment effects on vertebrate communities. However, some effects of shrub encroachment on vertebrate communities differed with net primary productivity, amongst vertebrate groups, and across continents. Encroachment had negative effects on vertebrate diversity at low net primary productivity. Mammalian and herpetofaunal diversity decreased with shrub encroachment. Shrub encroachment also had negative effects on species richness and total abundance in Africa but positive effects in North America. Main conclusions: Biodiversity conservation and mitigation efforts responding to shrub encroachment should focus on low-productivity locations, on mammals and herpetofauna, and in Africa. However, targeted research in neglected regions such as central Asia and India will be needed to fill important gaps in our knowledge of shrub encroachment effects on vertebrates. Additionally, our findings provide an impetus for determining the mechanisms associated with changes in vertebrate diversity and abundance in shrub-encroached grass-dominated biomes.
New polymers with high electron mobilities have spurred research in organic solar cells using polymeric rather than fullerene acceptors due to their potential of increased diversity, stability, and scalability. However, all-polymer solar cells have struggled to keep up with the steadily increasing power conversion efficiency of polymer: fullerene cells. The lack of knowledge about the dominant recombination process as well as the missing concluding picture on the role of the semi-crystalline microstructure of conjugated polymers in the free charge carrier generation process impede a systematic optimization of all-polymer solar cells. These issues are examined by combining structural and photo-physical characterization on a series of poly(3-hexylthiophene) (donor) and P(NDI2OD-T2) (acceptor) blend devices. These experiments reveal that geminate recombination is the major loss channel for photo-excited charge carriers. Advanced X-ray and electron-based studies reveal the effect of chloronaphthalene co-solvent in reducing domain size, altering domain purity, and reorienting the acceptor polymer crystals to be coincident with those of the donor. This reorientation correlates well with the increased photocurrent from these devices. Thus, effi cient split-up of geminate pairs at polymer/polymer interfaces may necessitate correlated donor/acceptor crystal orientation, which represents an additional requirement compared to the isotropic fullerene acceptors.
We present the discovery of a new dwarf galaxy, Hydra II, found serendipitously within the data from the ongoing Survey of the Magellanic Stellar History conducted with the Dark Energy Camera on the Blanco 4 m Telescope. The new satellite is compact (r(h) = 68 +/- 11 pc) and faint (MV = -4.8 +/- 0.3), but well within the realm of dwarf galaxies. The stellar distribution of Hydra II in the color-magnitude diagram is well-described by a metal-poor ([Fe/H] = -2.2) and old (13 Gyr) isochrone and shows a distinct blue horizontal branch, some possible red clump stars, and faint stars that are suggestive of blue stragglers. At a heliocentric distance of 134 +/- 10 kpc, Hydra II is located in a region of the Galactic halo that models have suggested may host material from the leading arm of the Magellanic Stream. A comparison with N-body simulations hints that the new dwarf galaxy could be or could have been a satellite of the Magellanic Clouds.
The Large and Small Magellanic Clouds are unique local laboratories for studying the formation and evolution of small galaxies in exquisite detail. The Survey of the MAgellanic Stellar History (SMASH) is an NOAO community Dark Energy Camera (DECam) survey of the Clouds mapping 480 deg2 (distributed over similar to 2400 square degrees at similar to 20% filling factor) to similar to 24th. mag in ugriz. The primary goals of SMASH are to identify low surface brightness stellar populations associated with the stellar halos and tidal debris of the Clouds, and to derive spatially resolved star formation histories. Here, we present a summary of the survey, its data reduction, and a description of the first public Data Release (DR1). The SMASH DECam data have been reduced with a combination of the NOAO Community Pipeline, the PHOTRED automated point-spread-function photometry pipeline, and custom calibration software. The astrometric precision is similar to 15 mas and the accuracy is similar to 2 mas with respect to the Gaia reference frame. The photometric precision is similar to 0.5%-0.7% in griz and similar to 1% in u with a calibration accuracy of similar to 1.3% in all bands. The median 5s point source depths in ugriz are 23.9, 24.8, 24.5, 24.2, and 23.5 mag. The SMASH data have already been used to discover the Hydra II Milky Way satellite, the SMASH 1 old globular cluster likely associated with the LMC, and extended stellar populations around the LMC out to R. similar to. 18.4 kpc. SMASH DR1 contains measurements of similar to 100 million objects distributed in 61 fields. A prototype version of the NOAO Data Lab provides data access and exploration tools.
Aims. We aim to characterize the multiwavelength emission from Markarian 501 (Mrk 501), quantify the energy-dependent variability, study the potential multiband correlations, and describe the temporal evolution of the broadband emission within leptonic theoretical scenarios. Methods. We organized a multiwavelength campaign to take place between March and July of 2012. Excellent temporal coverage was obtained with more than 25 instruments, including the MAGIC, FACT and VERITAS Cherenkov telescopes, the instruments on board the Swift and Fermi spacecraft, and the telescopes operated by the GASP-WEBT collaboration. Results. Mrk 501 showed a very high energy (VHE) gamma-ray flux above 0.2 TeV of similar to 0.5 times the Crab Nebula flux (CU) for most of the campaign. The highest activity occurred on 2012 June 9, when the VHE flux was similar to 3 CU, and the peak of the high-energy spectral component was found to be at similar to 2 TeV. Both the X-ray and VHE gamma-ray spectral slopes were measured to be extremely hard, with spectral indices <2 during most of the observing campaign, regardless of the X-ray and VHE flux. This study reports the hardest Mrk 501 VHE spectra measured to date. The fractional variability was found to increase with energy, with the highest variability occurring at VHE. Using the complete data set, we found correlation between the X-ray and VHE bands; however, if the June 9 flare is excluded, the correlation disappears (significance <3 sigma) despite the existence of substantial variability in the X-ray and VHE bands throughout the campaign. Conclusions. The unprecedentedly hard X-ray and VHE spectra measured imply that their low- and high-energy components peaked above 5 keV and 0.5 TeV, respectively, during a large fraction of the observing campaign, and hence that Mrk 501 behaved like an extreme high-frequency-peaked blazar (EHBL) throughout the 2012 observing season. This suggests that being an EHBL may not be a permanent characteristic of a blazar, but rather a state which may change over time. The data set acquired shows that the broadband spectral energy distribution (SED) of Mrk 501, and its transient evolution, is very complex, requiring, within the framework of synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) models, various emission regions for a satisfactory description. Nevertheless the one-zone SSC scenario can successfully describe the segments of the SED where most energy is emitted, with a significant correlation between the electron energy density and the VHE gamma-ray activity, suggesting that most of the variability may be explained by the injection of high-energy electrons. The one-zone SSC scenario used reproduces the behavior seen between the measured X-ray and VHE gamma-ray fluxes, and predicts that the correlation becomes stronger with increasing energy of the X-rays.
VERITAS and Fermi-LAT Observations of TeV Gamma-Ray Sources Discovered by HAWC in the 2HWC Catalog
(2018)
The High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) collaboration recently published their 2HWC catalog, listing 39 very high energy (VHE; >100 GeV) gamma-ray sources based on 507 days of observation. Among these, 19 sources are not associated with previously known teraelectronvolt (TeV) gamma-ray sources. We have studied 14 of these sources without known counterparts with VERITAS and Fermi-LAT. VERITAS detected weak gamma-ray emission in the 1 TeV-30 TeV band in the region of DA 495, a pulsar wind nebula coinciding with 2HWC J1953+294, confirming the discovery of the source by HAWC. We did not find any counterpart for the selected 14 new HAWC sources from our analysis of Fermi-LAT data for energies higher than 10 GeV. During the search, we detected gigaelectronvolt (GeV) gamma-ray emission coincident with a known TeV pulsar wind nebula, SNR G54.1+0.3 (VER J1930+188), and a 2HWC source, 2HWC J1930+188. The fluxes for isolated, steady sources in the 2HWC catalog are generally in good agreement with those measured by imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes. However, the VERITAS fluxes for SNR G54.1+0.3, DA 495, and TeV J2032+4130 are lower than those measured by HAWC, and several new HAWC sources are not detected by VERITAS. This is likely due to a change in spectral shape, source extension, or the influence of diffuse emission in the source region.
We report on observations of the pulsar/Be star binary system PSR J2032+4127/MT91 213 in the energy range between 100 GeV and 20 TeV with the Very Energetic Radiation Imaging Telescope Array and Major Atmospheric Gamma Imaging Cherenkov telescope arrays. The binary orbit has a period of approximately 50 years, with the most recent periastron occurring on 2017 November 13. Our observations span from 18 months prior to periastron to one month after. A new point-like gamma-ray source is detected, coincident with the location of PSR J2032+4127/MT91 213. The gamma-ray light curve and spectrum are well characterized over the periastron passage. The flux is variable over at least an order of magnitude, peaking at periastron, thus providing a firm association of the TeV source with the pulsar/Be star system. Observations prior to periastron show a cutoff in the spectrum at an energy around 0.5 TeV. This result adds a new member to the small population of known TeV binaries, and it identifies only the second source of this class in which the nature and properties of the compact object are firmly established. We compare the gamma-ray results with the light curve measured with the X-ray Telescope on board the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory and with the predictions of recent theoretical models of the system. We conclude that significant revision of the models is required to explain the details of the emission that we have observed, and we discuss the relationship between the binary system and the overlapping steady extended source, TeV J2032+4130.
We present very-high-energy gamma-ray observations of the BL Lac object 1ES 2344+514 taken by the Very Energetic Radiation Imaging Telescope Array System between 2007 and 2015. 1ES 2344+514 is detected with a statistical significance above the background of 20.8 sigma in 47.2 h (livetime) of observations, making this the most comprehensive very-high-energy study of 1ES 2344+514 to date. Using these observations, the temporal properties of 1ES 2344+514 are studied on short and long times-scales. We fit a constant-flux model to nightly and seasonally binned light curves and apply a fractional variability test to determine the stability of the source on different time-scales. We reject the constant-flux model for the 2007-2008 and 2014-2015 nightly binned light curves and for the long-term seasonally binned light curve at the > 3 sigma level. The spectra of the time-averaged emission before and after correction for attenuation by the extragalactic background light are obtained. The observed time-averaged spectrum above 200 GeV is satisfactorily fitted (x(2)/NDF = 7.89/6) by a power-law function with an index Gamma = 2.46 +/- 0.06(stat) +/- 0.20(sys) and extends to at least 8 TeV. The extragalactic-backgroundlight-deabsorbed spectrum is adequately fit (x(2)/NDF = 6.73/6) by a power-law function with an index Gamma = 2.15 +/- 0.06(stat) +/- 0.20(sys) while an F-test indicates that the power law with an exponential cut-off function provides a marginally better fit (x(2)/NDF = 2.56/5) at the 2.1 sigma level. The source location is found to be consistent with the published radio location and its spatial extent is consistent with a point source.
Birth weight variation is influenced by fetal and maternal genetic and non-genetic factors, and has been reproducibly associated with future cardio-metabolic health outcomes. In expanded genome-wide association analyses of own birth weight (n = 321,223) and offspring birth weight (n = 230,069 mothers), we identified 190 independent association signals (129 of which are novel). We used structural equation modeling to decompose the contributions of direct fetal and indirect maternal genetic effects, then applied Mendelian randomization to illuminate causal pathways. For example, both indirect maternal and direct fetal genetic effects drive the observational relationship between lower birth weight and higher later blood pressure: maternal blood pressure-raising alleles reduce offspring birth weight, but only direct fetal effects of these alleles, once inherited, increase later offspring blood pressure. Using maternal birth weight-lowering genotypes to proxy for an adverse intrauterine environment provided no evidence that it causally raises offspring blood pressure, indicating that the inverse birth weight-blood pressure association is attributable to genetic effects, and not to intrauterine programming.