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Core-collapse supernova remnants are the gaseous nebulae of galactic interstellar media (ISM) formed after the explosive death of massive stars. Their morphology and emission properties depend both on the surrounding circumstellar structure shaped by the stellar wind-ISM interaction of the progenitor star and on the local conditions of the ambient medium. In the warm phase of the Galactic plane (n approximate to 1 cm(-3), T approximate to 8000 K), an organized magnetic field of strength 7 mu G has profound consequences on the morphology of the wind bubble of massive stars at rest. In this paper, we show through 2.5D magnetohydrodynamical simulations, in the context of a Wolf-Rayet-evolving 35 M 0 star, that it affects the development of its supernova remnant. When the supernova remnant reaches its middle age (15-20 kyr), it adopts a tubular shape that results from the interaction between the isotropic supernova ejecta and the anisotropic, magnetized, shocked stellar progenitor bubble into which the supernova blast wave expands. Our calculations for non-thermal emission, i.e. radio synchrotron and inverse-Compton radiation, reveal that such supernova remnants can, due to projection effects, appear as rectangular objects in certain cases. This mechanism for shaping a supernova remnant is similar to the bipolar and elliptical planetary nebula production by wind-wind interaction in the low-mass regime of stellar evolution. If such a rectangular core-collapse supernova remnant is created, the progenitor star must not have been a runaway star. We propose that such a mechanism is at work in the shaping of the asymmetric core-collapse supernova remnant Puppis A.
Wolf-Rayet stars are amongst the rarest but also most intriguing massive stars. Their extreme stellar winds induce famous multiwavelength circumstellar gas nebulae of various morphologies, spanning from circles and rings to bipolar shapes. This study is devoted to the investigation of the formation of young, asymmetric Wolf-Rayet gas nebulae and we present a 2.5-dimensional magneto-hydrodynamical toy model for the simulation of Wolf-Rayet gas nebulae generated by wind-wind interaction. Our method accounts for stellar wind asymmetries, rotation, magnetization, evolution, and mixing of materials. It is found that the morphology of the Wolf-Rayet nebulae of blue supergiant ancestors is tightly related to the wind geometry and to the stellar phase transition time interval, generating either a broadened peanut-like or a collimated jet-like gas nebula. Radiative transfer calculations of our Wolf-Rayet nebulae for dust infrared emission at 24 mu m show that the projected diffuse emission can appear as oblate, bipolar, ellipsoidal, or ring structures. Important projection effects are at work in shaping observed Wolf-Rayet nebulae. This might call a revision of the various classifications of Wolf-Rayet shells, which are mostly based on their observed shape. Particularly, our models question the possibility of producing pre-Wolf-Rayet wind asymmetries, responsible for bipolar nebulae like NGC 6888, within the single red supergiant evolution channel scenario. We propose that bipolar Wolf-Rayet nebulae can only be formed within the red supergiant scenario by multiple/merged massive stellar systems, or by single high-mass stars undergoing additional, e.g. blue supergiant, evolutionary stages prior to the Wolf-Rayet phase.
The unidentified very-high-energy (VHE; E > 0.1 TeV) gamma -ray source, HESS J1826-130, was discovered with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (HESS) in the Galactic plane. The analysis of 215 h of HESS data has revealed a steady gamma -ray flux from HESS J1826-130, which appears extended with a half-width of 0.21 degrees +/- 0.02 <br /> (stat)degrees <br /> stat degrees +/- 0.05 <br /> (sys)degrees sys degrees . The source spectrum is best fit with either a power-law function with a spectral index Gamma = 1.78 +/- 0.10(stat) +/- 0.20(sys) and an exponential cut-off at 15.2 <br /> (+5.5)(-3.2) -3.2+5.5 TeV, or a broken power-law with Gamma (1) = 1.96 +/- 0.06(stat) +/- 0.20(sys), Gamma (2) = 3.59 +/- 0.69(stat) +/- 0.20(sys) for energies below and above E-br = 11.2 +/- 2.7 TeV, respectively. The VHE flux from HESS J1826-130 is contaminated by the extended emission of the bright, nearby pulsar wind nebula, HESS J1825-137, particularly at the low end of the energy spectrum. Leptonic scenarios for the origin of HESS J1826-130 VHE emission related to PSR J1826-1256 are confronted by our spectral and morphological analysis. In a hadronic framework, taking into account the properties of dense gas regions surrounding HESS J1826-130, the source spectrum would imply an astrophysical object capable of accelerating the parent particle population up to greater than or similar to 200 TeV. Our results are also discussed in a multiwavelength context, accounting for both the presence of nearby supernova remnants, molecular clouds, and counterparts detected in radio, X-rays, and TeV energies.
Background:
COVID-19 has infected millions of people worldwide and is responsible for several hundred thousand fatalities. The COVID-19 pandemic has necessitated thoughtful resource allocation and early identification of high-risk patients. However, effective methods to meet these needs are lacking.
Objective:
The aims of this study were to analyze the electronic health records (EHRs) of patients who tested positive for COVID-19 and were admitted to hospitals in the Mount Sinai Health System in New York City; to develop machine learning models for making predictions about the hospital course of the patients over clinically meaningful time horizons based on patient characteristics at admission; and to assess the performance of these models at multiple hospitals and time points.
Methods:
We used Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and baseline comparator models to predict in-hospital mortality and critical events at time windows of 3, 5, 7, and 10 days from admission. Our study population included harmonized EHR data from five hospitals in New York City for 4098 COVID-19-positive patients admitted from March 15 to May 22, 2020. The models were first trained on patients from a single hospital (n=1514) before or on May 1, externally validated on patients from four other hospitals (n=2201) before or on May 1, and prospectively validated on all patients after May 1 (n=383). Finally, we established model interpretability to identify and rank variables that drive model predictions.
Results:
Upon cross-validation, the XGBoost classifier outperformed baseline models, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) for mortality of 0.89 at 3 days, 0.85 at 5 and 7 days, and 0.84 at 10 days. XGBoost also performed well for critical event prediction, with an AUC-ROC of 0.80 at 3 days, 0.79 at 5 days, 0.80 at 7 days, and 0.81 at 10 days. In external validation, XGBoost achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.88 at 3 days, 0.86 at 5 days, 0.86 at 7 days, and 0.84 at 10 days for mortality prediction. Similarly, the unimputed XGBoost model achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.78 at 3 days, 0.79 at 5 days, 0.80 at 7 days, and 0.81 at 10 days. Trends in performance on prospective validation sets were similar. At 7 days, acute kidney injury on admission, elevated LDH, tachypnea, and hyperglycemia were the strongest drivers of critical event prediction, while higher age, anion gap, and C-reactive protein were the strongest drivers of mortality prediction.
Conclusions:
We externally and prospectively trained and validated machine learning models for mortality and critical events for patients with COVID-19 at different time horizons. These models identified at-risk patients and uncovered underlying relationships that predicted outcomes.
A very small fraction of (runaway) massive stars have masses exceeding 60-70 M-circle dot and are predicted to evolve as luminous blue variable and Wolf-Rayet stars before ending their lives as core-collapse supernovae. Our 2D axisymmetric hydrodynamical simulations explore how a fast wind (2000 km s(-1)) and high mass-loss rate (10(-5)M(circle dot) yr(-1)) can impact the morphology of the circumstellar medium. It is shaped as 100 pc-scale wind nebula that can be pierced by the driving star when it supersonically moves with velocity 20-40 km s(-1) through the interstellar medium (ISM) in the Galactic plane. The motion of such runaway stars displaces the position of the supernova explosion out of their bow shock nebula, imposing asymmetries to the eventual shock wave expansion and engendering Cygnus-loop-like supernova remnants. We conclude that the size (up to more than 200 pc) of the filamentary wind cavity in which the chemically enriched supernova ejecta expand, mixing efficiently the wind and ISM materials by at least 10 per cent in number density, can be used as a tracer of the runaway nature of the very massive progenitors of such 0.1Myr old remnants. Our results motivate further observational campaigns devoted to the bow shock of the very massive stars BD+43 degrees 3654 and to the close surroundings of the synchrotron-emitting Wolf-Rayet shell G2.4+1.4.
On the ALMA observability of nascent massive multiple systems formed by gravitational instability
(2019)
Massive young stellar objects (MYSOs) form during the collapse of high-mass pre-stellar cores, where infalling molecular material is accreted through a centrifugally balanced accretion disc that is subject to efficient gravitational instabilities. In the resulting fragmented accretion disc of the MYSO, gaseous clumps and low-mass stellar companions can form, which will influence the future evolution of massive protostars in the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram. We perform dust continuum radiative transfer calculations and compute synthetic images of disc structures modelled by the gravito-radiation-hydrodynamics simulation of a forming MYSO, in order to investigate the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (alma) observability of circumstellar gaseous clumps and forming multiple systems. Both spiral arms and gaseous clumps located at similar or equal to a few from the protostar can be resolved by interferometric alma Cycle 7 C43-8 and C43-10 observations at band 6 (), using a maximal 0.015 aracsec beam angular resolution and at least exposure time for sources at distances of . Our study shows that substructures are observable regardless of their viewing geometry or can be inferred in the case of an edge-viewed disc. The observation probability of the clumps increases with the gradually increasing efficiency of gravitational instability at work as the disc evolves. As a consequence, large discs around MYSOs close to the zero-age-main-sequence line exhibit more substructures than at the end of the gravitational collapse. Our results motivate further observational campaigns devoted to the close surroundings of the massive protostars S255IR-NIRS3 and NGC 6334I-MM1, whose recent outbursts are a probable signature of disc fragmentation and accretion variability.
PaRDeS, the journal of the German Association for Jewish Studies, aims at exploring the fruitful and multifarious cultures of Judaism as well as their relations to their environment within diverse areas of research. In addition, the journal promotes Jewish Studies within academic discourse and reflects on its historic and social responsibilities.
Industrial production and use of boron compounds have increased during the last decades, especially for the manufacture of borosilicate glass, fiberglass, metal alloys and flame retardants. This study was conducted in two districts of Balikesir; Bandirma and Bigadic, which geographically belong to the Marmara Region of Turkey. Bandirma is the production and exportation zone for the produced boric acid and some borates and Bigadic has the largest B deposits in Turkey. 102 male workers who were occupationally exposed to boron from Bandirma and 110 workers who were occupationally and environmentally exposed to boron from Bigadic participated to our study. In this study the DNA damage in the sperm, blood and buccal cells of 212 males was evaluated by comet and micronucleus assays. No significant increase in the DNA damage in blood, sperm and buccal cells was observed in the residents exposed to boron both occupationally and environmentally (p = 0.861) for Comet test in the sperm samples, p = 0.116 for Comet test in the lymphocyte samples, p = 0.042 for micronucleus (MN) test, p = 0.955 for binucleated cells (BN), p = 1.486 for condensed chromatin (CC), p = 0.455 for karyorrhectic cells (KHC), p = 0.541 for karyolitic cells (KLY), p = 1.057 for pyknotic cells (PHC), p = 0.331 for nuclear bud (NBUD)). No correlations were seen between blood boron levels and tail intensity values of the sperm samples, lymphocyte samples, frequencies of MN, BN, KHC, KYL, PHC and NBUD. The results of this study came to the same conclusions of the previous studies that boron does not induce DNA damage even under extreme exposure conditions.
The flat spectrum radio quasar 3C 279 is known to exhibit pronounced variability in the high-energy (100MeV < E < 100 GeV) gamma-ray band, which is continuously monitored with Fermi-LAT. During two periods of high activity in April 2014 and June 2015 target-of-opportunity observations were undertaken with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) in the very-high-energy (VHE, E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray domain. While the observation in 2014 provides an upper limit, the observation in 2015 results in a signal with 8 : 7 sigma significance above an energy threshold of 66 GeV. No VHE variability was detected during the 2015 observations. The VHE photon spectrum is soft and described by a power-law index of 4.2 +/- 0.3. The H.E.S.S. data along with a detailed and contemporaneous multiwavelength data set provide constraints on the physical parameters of the emission region. The minimum distance of the emission region from the central black hole was estimated using two plausible geometries of the broad-line region and three potential intrinsic spectra. The emission region is confidently placed at r greater than or similar to 1 : 7 X 1017 cm from the black hole, that is beyond the assumed distance of the broad-line region. Time-dependent leptonic and lepto-hadronic one-zone models were used to describe the evolution of the 2015 flare. Neither model can fully reproduce the observations, despite testing various parameter sets. Furthermore, the H.E.S.S. data were used to derive constraints on Lorentz invariance violation given the large redshift of 3C 279.