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Scenario analysis is a widely used approach to incorporate uncertainties in global change research. In the context of regional ecosystem service and landscape management where global IPCC climate simulations and their downscaled derivates are applied, it can be useful to work with regional sodo-economic scenarios that are coherent with the global IPCC scenarios. The consistency with the original source scenarios, transparency and reproducibility of the methods used as well as the internal consistency of the derived scenarios are important methodological prerequisites for coherently downscaling pre-existing source scenarios. In contrast to well-established systematic-qualitative scenario techniques, we employ here a formal technique of scenario construction which combines expert judgement with a quantitative, indicator-based selection algorithm in order to deduce a formally consistent set of focus scenario. In our case study, these focus scenarios reflect the potential development pathways of major national-level drivers for ecosystem service management in Swiss mountain regions. The integration of an extra impact factor ("Global Trends") directly referring to the four principle SRES scenario families, helped us to formally internalise base assumptions of IPCC SRES scenarios to regional scenarios that address a different thematic focus (ecosystem service management), spatial level (national) and time horizon (2050). Compared to the well-established systematic-qualitative approach, we find strong similarities between the two methods, including the susceptibility to personal judgement which is only partly reduced by the formal method. However, the formalised scenario approach conveys four clear advantages, (1) the better documentation of the process, (2) its reproducibility, (3) the openness in terms of the number and directions of the finally selected set of scenarios, and (4) its analytical power. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.
Recent theoretical models suggest that the early phase of galaxy formation could involve an epoch when galaxies are gas rich but inefficient at forming stars: a "dark galaxy" phase. Here, we report the results of our Multi-Unit Spectroscopic Explorer (MUSE) survey for dark galaxies fluorescently illuminated by quasars at z > 3. Compared to previous studies which are based on deep narrowband (NB) imaging, our integral field survey provides a nearly uniform sensitivity coverage over a large volume in redshift space around the quasars as well as full spectral information at each location. Thanks to these unique features, we are able to build control samples at large redshift distances from the quasars using the same data taken under the same conditions. By comparing the rest-frame equivalent width (EW0) distributions of the Ly alpha sources detected in proximity to the quasars and in control samples, we detect a clear correlation between the locations of high-EW0 objects and the quasars. This correlation is not seen in other properties, such as Ly alpha luminosities or volume overdensities, suggesting the possible fluorescent nature of at least some of these objects. Among these, we find six sources without continuum counterparts and EW0 limits larger than 240 angstrom that are the best candidates for dark galaxies in our survey at z > 3.5. The volume densities and properties, including inferred gas masses and star formation efficiencies, of these dark galaxy candidates are similar to those of previously detected candidates at z approximate to 2.4 in NB surveys. Moreover, if the most distant of these are fluorescently illuminated by the quasar, our results also provide a lower limit of t - 60 Myr on the quasar lifetime.
Moving in the Anthropocene
(2018)
Animal movement is fundamental for ecosystem functioning and species survival, yet the effects of the anthropogenic footprint on animal movements have not been estimated across species. Using a unique GPS-tracking database of 803 individuals across 57 species, we found that movements of mammals in areas with a comparatively high human footprint were on average one-half to one-third the extent of their movements in areas with a low human footprint. We attribute this reduction to behavioral changes of individual animals and to the exclusion of species with long-range movements from areas with higher human impact. Global loss of vagility alters a key ecological trait of animals that affects not only population persistence but also ecosystem processes such as predator-prey interactions, nutrient cycling, and disease transmission.
Understanding the association between autonomic nervous system [ANS] function and brain morphology across the lifespan provides important insights into neurovisceral mechanisms underlying health and disease. Resting-state ANS activity, indexed by measures of heart rate [HR] and its variability [HRV] has been associated with brain morphology, particularly cortical thickness [CT]. While findings have been mixed regarding the anatomical distribution and direction of the associations, these inconsistencies may be due to sex and age differences in HR/HRV and CT. Previous studies have been limited by small sample sizes, which impede the assessment of sex differences and aging effects on the association between ANS function and CT. To overcome these limitations, 20 groups worldwide contributed data collected under similar protocols of CT assessment and HR/HRV recording to be pooled in a mega-analysis (N = 1,218 (50.5% female), mean age 36.7 years (range: 12-87)). Findings suggest a decline in HRV as well as CT with increasing age. CT, particularly in the orbitofrontal cortex, explained additional variance in HRV, beyond the effects of aging. This pattern of results may suggest that the decline in HRV with increasing age is related to a decline in orbitofrontal CT. These effects were independent of sex and specific to HRV; with no significant association between CT and HR. Greater CT across the adult lifespan may be vital for the maintenance of healthy cardiac regulation via the ANS-or greater cardiac vagal activity as indirectly reflected in HRV may slow brain atrophy. Findings reveal an important association between CT and cardiac parasympathetic activity with implications for healthy aging and longevity that should be studied further in longitudinal research.
We introduce a new survey of massive stars in the Galaxy and the Magellanic Clouds using the Fibre Large Array Multi- Element Spectrograph ( FLAMES) instrument at the Very Large Telescope ( VLT). Here we present observations of 269 Galactic stars with the FLAMES- Giraffe Spectrograph ( R similar or equal to 25 000), in fields centered on the open clusters NGC3293, NGC4755 and NGC6611. These data are supplemented by a further 50 targets observed with the Fibre- Fed Extended Range Optical Spectrograph ( FEROS, R = 48 000). Following a description of our scientific motivations and target selection criteria, the data reduction methods are described; of critical importance the FLAMES reduction pipeline is found to yield spectra that are in excellent agreement with less automated methods. Spectral classifications and radial velocity measurements are presented for each star, with particular attention paid to morphological peculiarities and evidence of binarity. These observations represent a significant increase in the known spectral content of NGC3293 and NGC4755, and will serve as standards against which our subsequent FLAMES observations in the Magellanic Clouds will be compared
During the second phase of the Alpine Fault, Deep Fault Drilling Project (DFDP) in the Whataroa River, South Westland, New Zealand, bedrock was encountered in the DFDP-2B borehole from 238.5–893.2 m Measured Depth (MD). Continuous sampling and meso- to microscale characterisation of whole rock cuttings established that, in sequence, the borehole sampled amphibolite facies, Torlesse Composite Terrane-derived schists, protomylonites and mylonites, terminating 200–400 m above an Alpine Fault Principal Slip Zone (PSZ) with a maximum dip of 62°. The most diagnostic structural features of increasing PSZ proximity were the occurrence of shear bands and reduction in mean quartz grain sizes. A change in composition to greater mica:quartz + feldspar, most markedly below c. 700 m MD, is inferred to result from either heterogeneous sampling or a change in lithology related to alteration. Major oxide variations suggest the fault-proximal Alpine Fault alteration zone, as previously defined in DFDP-1 core, was not sampled.
1. Global pressures on freshwater ecosystems are high and rising. Viewed primarily as a resource for humans, current practices of water use have led to catastrophic declines in freshwater species and the degradation of freshwater ecosystems, including their genetic and functional diversity. Approximately three-quarters of the world's inland wetlands have been lost, one-third of the 28 000 freshwater species assessed for the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List are threatened with extinction, and freshwater vertebrate populations are undergoing declines that are more rapid than those of terrestrial and marine species. This global loss continues unchecked, despite the importance of freshwater ecosystems as a source of clean water, food, livelihoods, recreation, and inspiration.
2. The causes of these declines include hydrological alterations, habitat degradation and loss, overexploitation, invasive species, pollution, and the multiple impacts of climate change. Although there are policy initiatives that aim to protect freshwater life, these are rarely implemented with sufficient conviction and enforcement. Policies that focus on the development and management of fresh waters as a resource for people almost universally neglect the biodiversity that they contain.
3. Here we introduce the Alliance for Freshwater Life, a global initiative, uniting specialists in research, data synthesis, conservation, education and outreach, and policymaking. This expert network aims to provide the critical mass required for the effective representation of freshwater biodiversity at policy meetings, to develop solutions balancing the needs of development and conservation, and to better convey the important role freshwater ecosystems play in human well-being. Through this united effort we hope to reverse this tide of loss and decline in freshwater biodiversity. We introduce several short- and medium-term actions as examples for making positive change, and invite individuals, organizations, authorities, and governments to join the Alliance for Freshwater Life.
We analysed recent K2 data of the short-period eclipsing binary system HW Vir, which consists of a hot subdwarf-B type primary with an M-dwarf companion. We determined the mid-times of eclipses, calculated O-C diagrams, and an average shift of the secondary minimum. Our results show that the orbital period is stable within the errors over the course of the 70 days of observations. Interestingly, the offset from mid-orbital phase between the primary and the secondary eclipses is found to be 1.62 s. If the shift is explained solely by light-travel time, the mass of the sdB primary must be 0.26 M-circle dot, which is too low for the star to be core-helium burning. However, we argue that this result is unlikely to be correct and that a number of effects caused by the relative sizes of the stars conspire to reduce the effective light-travel time measurement. After removing the flux variation caused by the orbit, we calculated the amplitude spectrum to search for pulsations. The spectrum clearly shows periodic signal from close to the orbital frequency up to 4600 mu Hz, with the majority of peaks found below 2600 mu Hz. The amplitudes are below 0.1 part-per-thousand, too low to be detected with ground-based photometry. Thus, the high-precision data from the Kepler spacecraft has revealed that the primary of the HW Vir system is a pulsating sdBV star. We argue that the pulsation spectrum of the primary in HW Vir differs from that in other sdB stars due to its relatively fast rotation that is (nearly) phase-locked with the orbit.
We present an analysis of two pulsating subdwarf B stars PHL 457 and EQ Psc observed during the K2 mission. The K2 light curves of both stars show variation consistent with irradiation of a cooler companion by the hot subdwarf. They also show higher frequency oscillations consistent with pulsation. Using new spectroscopic data, we measured the radial velocity, effective temperature, surface gravity, and helium abundance of both hot subdwarfs as a function of orbital phase. We confirm the previously published spectroscopic orbit of PHL 457, and present the first spectroscopic orbit of EQ Psc. The orbital periods are 0.313 and 0.801 d, respectively. For EQPsc, we find a strong correlation between T-eff and orbital phase, due to contribution of light from the irradiated companion. We calculated amplitude spectra, identified significant pulsation frequencies, and searched for multiplets and asymptotic period spacings. By means of multiplets and period spacing, we identified the degrees of several pulsation modes in each star. The g-mode multiplets indicate subsynchronous core rotation with periods of 4.6 d (PHL 457) and 9.4 d (EQ Psc). We made spectral energy disctribution (SED) fits of PHL 457 and EQ Psc using available broad-band photometry and Gaia data. While the SED of PHL 457 shows no evidence of a cool companion, the SED for EQPsc clearly shows an infrared (IR) access consistent with a secondary with a temperature of about 6800K and a radius of 0.23 R-circle dot. This is the first detection of an IR access in any sdB + dM binary.