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Digitizing grocery retailing
(2021)
Multiple emerging technologies both threaten grocers and offer them attractive opportunities to enhance their value propositions, improve processes, reduce costs, and therefore generate competitive advantages. Among the variety of technological innovations and considering the scarcity of resources, it is unclear which technologies to focus on and where to implement them in the value chain. To develop the most probable technology forecast that addresses the application of emerging technologies in the grocery value chain within the current decade, we conduct a two-stage Delphi study. Our results suggest a high relevance of almost all technologies. The panel is only skeptical about three specific projections. As a consequence, grocers are advised to build up knowledge regarding the application of these technologies in the most promising areas of their value chain.
Equity crowdfunding
(2021)
In this study, we explore the development of equity crowdfunding (ECF) over the next 5 to 10 years by conducting an international Delphi study. Our results indicate that the ECF market is expected to grow significantly. However, it is unlikely to disrupt other forms of financing and will not cover all SME financing needs. ECF will remain a funding technique for SMEs and small investors; it is unlikely to attract large corporations or institutional investors. Platforms will impose stricter requirements for capital raisers, expand their services, and innovate their business models. National governments will probably partly liberalize the ECF market.
Firms increasingly use ideas from online innovation communities to solve problems or to better address customer needs. However, in many cases the number of submitted ideas has exploded, it leads to an information overload that firms hardly can handle considering their limited cognitive resources. Therefore, we use the Elaboration Likelihood Model to distinguish between the quick and lean idea preselection process as a peripheral route of information processing and the subsequent idea review process as a central route of information processing. In our empirical study with a sample of more than 163,000 ideas collected from the Xiaomi MIUI community, we analyse influencing factors that increase the likelihood of ideas being preselected or reviewed. Results show that user status, user initiative contribution, and community recognition have a significantly positive influence on idea preselction, whereas user response contribution has no influence. Idea presentation characteristics have an inverted U-curve relationship with idea adoption. Community absorptive capacity has a moderate effect on the curvilinear relationship between idea description length and idea adoption.
The growing global demand for meat is being thwarted by shrinking agricultural areas, and opposes efforts to mitigate methane emissions and to improve public health. Cultured meat could contribute to solve these problems, but will such meat be marketable, competitive, and accepted? Using the Delphi method, this study explored the potential development of cultured meat by 2027. Despite the acknowledged urgency to develop sustainable meat alternatives, participants doubt that challenges regarding mass production, production costs, and consumer acceptance will be overcome by 2027. Considering the noticeable impacts of global warming, further research and development as well as a change in consumer perceptions is inevitable.
This paper challenges the solely rational view of the scenario technique as a strategy and foresight tool designed to cope with uncertainty by considering multiple possible future states. The paper employs an affordance-based view that allows for the identification and structuring of hidden, emergent attributes of the scenario technique beyond the intended ones. The suggested framework distinguishes between affordances (1) that are intended by the organization and relate to its goals, (2) that emergently generate organizational benefits, and (3) that do not relate to organizational but individual interests. Also, constraints in the use of scenarios are discussed. Affordance theory’s specific lens shows that the emergence of such attributes depends on the users’ specific intentions.
In this study, we analyze the forecast accuracy and profitability of buy recommendations published in five major German financial magazines for private households based on fundamental analysis. The results show a high average forecast accuracy but with a very high standard deviation, which indicates poor forecast accuracy with regard to individual stocks. The recommendation profitability slightly exceeds the performance of the MSCI World index. Considering the involved risk, which is represented by a high standard deviation, the excess returns appear to be insufficient.
This paper challenges the solely rational view of the scenario technique as a strategy and foresight tool designed to cope with uncertainty by considering multiple possible future states. The paper employs an affordance-based view that allows for the identification and structuring of hidden, emergent attributes of the scenario technique beyond the intended ones. The suggested framework distinguishes between affordances (1) that are intended by the organization and relate to its goals, (2) that emergently generate organizational benefits, and (3) that do not relate to organizational but individual interests. Also, constraints in the use of scenarios are discussed. Affordance theory’s specific lens shows that the emergence of such attributes depends on the users’ specific intentions.
In this study, we analyze the forecast accuracy and profitability of buy recommendations published in five major German financial magazines for private households based on fundamental analysis. The results show a high average forecast accuracy but with a very high standard deviation, which indicates poor forecast accuracy with regard to individual stocks. The recommendation profitability slightly exceeds the performance of the MSCI World index. Considering the involved risk, which is represented by a high standard deviation, the excess returns appear to be insufficient.
Social Media, Quo Vadis?
(2020)
Over the past two decades, social media have become a crucial and omnipresent cultural and economic phenomenon, which has seen platforms come and go and advance technologically. In this study, we explore the further development of social media regarding interactive technologies, platform development, relationships to news media, the activities of institutional and organizational users, and effects of social media on the individual and the society over the next five to ten years by conducting an international, two-stage Delphi study. Our results show that enhanced interaction on platforms, including virtual and augmented reality, somatosensory sense, and touch- and movement-based navigation are expected. AIs will interact with other social media users. Inactive user profiles will outnumber active ones. Platform providers will diversify into the WWW, e-commerce, edu-tech, fintechs, the automobile industry, and HR. They will change to a freemium business model and put more effort into combating cybercrime. Social media will become the predominant news distributor, but fake news will still be problematic. Firms will spend greater amounts of their budgets on social media advertising, and schools, politicians, and the medical sector will increase their social media engagement. Social media use will increasingly lead to individuals’ psychic issues. Society will benefit from economic growth and new jobs, increased political interest, democratic progress, and education due to social media. However, censorship and the energy consumption of platform operators might rise.
How Will We Dine?
(2020)
Haute cuisine, the cooking style for fine dining at gourmet restaurants, has changed over the last decades and can be expected to evolve in the upcoming years. To engage in foresight, the purpose of this study is to identify a plausible future trend scenario for the haute cuisine sector within the next five to ten years, based on today’s chefs’ views. To achieve this goal, an international, two-stage Delphi study was conducted. The derived scenario suggests that the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic will lead to significant restaurant bankruptcies and will raise creativity and innovation among the remaining ones. It is expected that haute cuisine tourism will grow and that menu prices will differ for customer segments. More haute cuisine restaurants will open in Asia and America. Local food will remain a major trend and will be complemented by insect as well as plant-based proteins and sophisticated nonalcoholic food pairings. Restaurant design and the use of scents will become more relevant. Also, private dining and fine dining at home will become more important. The scenario also includes negative projections. These findings can serve as a research agenda for future research in haute cuisine, including the extension of the innovation lens towards the restaurant and the business model. Practical implications include the necessity for haute cuisine restaurants to innovate to cope with increasing competition in several regions. Customers should be seen as co-creators of the value of haute cuisine.